25/6 update to yesterday update: BTC 9:00 UTC-4 18/6/2024 Short Hello everyone,
looks like yesterday's call: "In my opinion, there is still potential to move to Lower prices, but we need to take a close look at how the price will behave around 1M ATH Close price @ 61.375$. If we are able to blast through it, my next expected target would be 58.500$."
- comes to fruition once again. Extra 5% in the bag for those who stuck with trade at least partially.
So what's Next?
As we can see, after we arrive at our target 58.500$ we got immediate bounce back to the price I told you to keep an eye on. Reason Why I already mentioned several times in my previous posts.
As for my next trade, I can still see odds in favor of continuation to Lower price targets - 58.500$ again and depending on How it will act around that price on a 1-5-15min chart determine if we can see further bleeding or we bounce and revisit Higher price.
So for now, I'm of the opinion that if we reach around 61.375$ to 61.500$ again it would be still a great Short entry area. Having in mind that I will be using STOP LOSS around 61.850$ as protection in a case I'm WRONG and we go to the "bounce target" I mentioned yesterday which is around 63.8k$-64.2k$. If that happens, that would be my New Short Entry area.
Good luck in your trading
Joe
Bitcoin-btcusd
$BTCUSD Algorithm Sell AlertWe are long-time investors in Bitcoin and do not short the crypto. On June 18th, our proprietary algorithm gave a sell alert, indicating it is time to be cautious when we see a large red dot. Our strategy is to wait for a large green dot algorithm buy alert to start accumulating the crypto
To the $60K area would be better..It would be good if there was a fakeout to the $60K area on the falling wedge to trap traders and then pump strongly, if the $60K area is not strong then it will go to $56K again.
𝘪𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘥𝘰𝘦𝘴𝘯'𝘵 𝘩𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘦𝘯 𝘮𝘢𝘺𝘣𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦 𝘰𝘧 $63𝘬 𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘢 𝘪𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘴𝘶𝘱𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘶𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘶𝘮𝘱 𝘢𝘨𝘢𝘪𝘯.
'_'
BITCOIN Hit 60k! Is the bleeding finally over?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) followed the medium-term June bearish forecast and as we projected on the following 2 analyses (see charts below), made the expected correction on the Support Zone around 60k:
Now the market has entered into a medium-term buy opportunity again and once we get confirmation from the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), it will be a long-term one too. The May 01 Low and ultimate Support level is at 56550.
As you can see the 4H MA50 (red trend-line) has been resisting throughout the majority of the Channel Down/ corrective wave but the Resistance and true bullish confirmation was last time given (May 15) when the price broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
As the top chart above shows, last year's accumulation phase (green) took another 2 months (August 17 - October 16 2023) to rise after the price broke below the 4D MA50, so we may see real movements at the end of the Summer when the price hits the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Bull Cycle's Channel Up.
In any event, BTC is on levels that long-term investors start consider buying again. Our standard medium-term Target is $72000. Note also that the 1D RSI is massively oversold at 25.50, last time it was this low was 10 months ago (on August 26 2023).
But what do you think about this price action? Is Bitcoin a solid buy now that it hit 60k again? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Elliot Wave 3-4 : FINAL Correction before NEW ATHI've been watching this bearish M-Pattern for some time, and I still believe this is a multi-month playout towards a new ATH:
This lines up with my initial correction target using Elliot Wave Theory:
We see a very clear Double Top play out in the Total Chart, also indicating that it's time for a correction:
HOWEVER - I expect the bulls to be ready and sweep in lower prices when the right support zone is reach (whale zone), which seems likely to be in the 40k zone. It won't be a straight line down - again, a multi-month playout is likely.
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CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Possible Double-Top Targeting 60-63kIf 67k is lost and not reclaimed, Bitcoin may target a drop down to ~63k and then 60-61k (around 60.6k).
This relates to a couple of other charts previously posted:
A smaller double-top on the 4 hour chart that is already confirmed and hit TP 1, which is likely headed towards TP 2:
A daily chart that is targeting 73-75k if it can hold 60k:
BTC - Daily TR phaseIn the daily timeframe, Bitcoin is navigating within a defined trading range, characterized by a descending channel with a gentle slope. This pattern suggests a period of consolidation following the substantial bullish momentum observed earlier in the year. The channel's boundaries are formed by resistance around the $73,000 level and support near $60,000. The gradual decline of the channel reflects a controlled correction rather than a sharp drop, which can often indicate a healthier retracement phase within a larger bullish trend.
Observing recent price action, Bitcoin has encountered resistance twice within this descending channel, failing to break through the $72,000 zone. Each attempt has resulted in a pullback, highlighting the strength of the resistance level. The current price action suggests a possible decline towards the support zone at the lower boundary of the channel. Despite these pullbacks, there is a possibility that Bitcoin may find support above the lower end of the channel, potentially around $60,000 to $62,000. This would reflect buyers stepping in at higher levels, indicating underlying bullish sentiment even within the corrective phase.
The behavior within this channel is critical for anticipating the next move. If Bitcoin finds support higher than the channel's bottom, it could set up for a bullish breakout in the future, targeting a move back towards and potentially above the resistance zone. Conversely, a failure to hold these higher support levels might lead to a test of the channel's lower boundary, necessitating a closer watch on the $60,000 support area for potential buying opportunities. Overall, the descending channel should be monitored for signs of consolidation, accumulation, and possible reversal, which could provide clues to the next major move for Bitcoin.
$61,357 is the 2021 highest monthly candle closeMaintaining this on a closing basis for JUNE & JULY
is essential to ensure we haven't prematurely topped out
we did have some topping signals
namely the #bitcoin ETF approval and going live
and Andrew Tate destroying the #Solana network :)
It would not be entirely disastrous in BTC ends the calendar year around 50k but it would actually give fuel for a full 4 year cycle
I am still leaning into this being a Bear Trap
And a MASSIVE #Altcoin shakeout.
and the #MTGOX distribution not having much effect
(remember they got hacked for 700,000 coins and only have 140k to reimburse )
Bitcoin's Momentum Is Slowing Down (BLX Chart)As I'm sure you've noticed, my posts have really slowed down. I'm just focusing on other things in my life, and it's mostly been good. Some hard times very recently, but that's how it goes. I hope you are all alright and trading safely :)
Now...to Bitcoin. Volume is declining overall as less actual Bitcoin is traded. Hardly any coins have been sent to exchanges, when compared with the past. Bulls say this is a good thing, due to less supply being available, which in theory pushes up price. However, if demand is lacking overall, there is not much that can be done. Bulls therefore hope that the new ETF's provide enough demand to keep the all time highs coming.
Momentum is also slowing down, hence the longer term monthly bearish divergences in the Ultimate Oscillator.
It's interesting to note that the total crypto market cap (TOTAL) has not made a new all time high.
Unless Bitcoin can get above its curved channel, growth will continue to slow down. For bulls, the hope is that Bitcoin continues to outperform traditional markets. We'll see what happens! Above, I've provided both long term bullish and long term bearish scenarios. As for what could send Bitcoin back to $3k or lower? It would probably involve forced selling, particularly by someone like Michael Saylor.
On the weekly chart, it's possible Bitcoin is simply consolidating before the next leg up. Seller volume is declining. Unless we see a huge push down before this coming Sunday, it's very possible the recent lows are set and price will make a new all time high.
There is also room to test some lower levels based on these trendlines:
$53k and FWB:42K are major levels buyers would be defending if price drops lower.
For now, $60k is being defended. Need a more convincing bounce though, to prove the selling is over.
There are more options than that, but this is currently the way I'm looking at it. Doesn't mean I'll be right or wrong, but that's how it is! I'm trying to provide both bullish and bearish options so that my bias doesn't take over.
I'm still positioning myself short. My opinion is that Bitcoin has a critical mass, or maximum price, and that there are some signs pointing to Bitcoin's over-saturation. This includes the lack of new addresses, decrease in volume, and lack of overall interest from the everyday person. The irony is that if all of a sudden everyone started talking about Bitcoin, we'd probably be near a top. So, you may take this as a bullish argument.
Anyway, thank you for reading and for your support. This is not meant as financial advice. This is purely speculative!
BTC update to: BTC 9:00 UTC-4 18/6/2024 Short TradeHello everyone,
Looks like our trade was delivered even though it took longer than was expected.
So everyone who took the same trade, congrats on your profits!
Aswell, I would point out How after I called for a lower price we went lower by around 1.85%, and How after that we visited the price I expected that is possible to reach for a great Short entry around 66.478$ (not so far from 66.500$) before our move unwind.
With that said, I hope everyone who took the same trade already took some profits off to pay the trader.
Now, to the harder part. And that's How to manage correctly trade if you still left some portion of your Short entry open.
In my opinion, there is still potential to move to Lower prices, but we need to take a close look at how the price will behave around 1M ATH Close price @ 61.375$. If we are able to blast through it, my next expected target would be 58.500$.
On the other hand, if in the upcoming hours price struggles to go lower than 61.3-61.5k$, I would expect it to bounce back a few % and that would be an opportunity to Open New Short trade. -> (around 63.500$ to 64.200$)
I will update further once I get more confirmation about What is more probable to happen next.
Joe
Bitcoin: Impulse Break Now What?Bitcoin price has violated the wave i overlap that I have been writing about in previous weeks. This means the lower magnitude impulse structure is no longer valid and reduces the probability of a wave v higher in the near term (which is why I removed the labels from my chart). Based on this price action, I am anticipating the continuation of the complex consolidation that this market has been in since the peak in March. Since the long term trend is still bullish, it is a good idea to watch RANGE LOWS for bullish reversal opportunities in the coming weeks.
The current momentum continues to be bearish. I wrote specifically about inside bars appearing the week before, and there are another two present as I write this (see arrow). These are momentum continuation patterns which means at least over the next couple of days prices are likely to test the 62K to 60K support zone (see illustration on chart).
While situations like this may be uneventful for investors and larger time frame traders, there are ample opportunities on intraday time frames. My trade scanner alone has been excelling in this environment because of the reversal signals off of the supports. Having such a system or well defined strategy in place not only offers a clear suggestion on when to get in, but more importantly when to EXIT the market in this highly RANDOM environment.
IF 60K is broken this week, it will increase the probability of a test of the consolidation low which is 56K. These are the kind of scenarios to consider when looking to increase your investment exposure. Again there is NO WAY to know if the market will choose this. This game has NOTHING to do with forecasting the future. It is about BEING PREPARED for a RANGE of possibilities that the market may present. While at the same time ALWAYS accounting for the associated RISK.
Opinions often ruin accounts. It is better to evaluate then let the market validate, otherwise you REEVALUATE. This thought process is much more effective in a market environment for one simple reason: markets are MOSTLY RANDOM. I repeat this a lot and while the words are easy to understand, applying this concept to your decision making framework it not. Emotions, fear of missing out and other herd behaviors are what make you susceptible to the irrelevant opinions of others. The BEST source of market information is THE MARKET.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
$BTC next step of correction loading?#bitcoin #btc price bounced after the last dump to 64K and #btcusd formed an ascending wedge. This pattern mostly bearish. #btcusdt is expected to hit top of the wedge first (Even more wicks to upside) and then a declination will confirm the next step of minor dump. Breaking up 67K is the invalidation. Not financial advice.
BTC Bitcoin Technical Rebound SoonIf you haven`t sold BTC on this top:
Then you need to know that Bitcoin is currently trading at $64,200, approaching the oversold territory on the RSI Relative Strength Index.
Historically, when Bitcoin enters the oversold area on the RSI, it often experiences a technical rebound.
The RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements, with values ranging from 0 to 100. An RSI below 30 is typically considered oversold, indicating that the asset may be undervalued and due for a rebound as buyers step in to take advantage of lower prices.
BITCOIN Is it just a giant Cup and Handle that we couldn't see??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1W time-frame resembles a giant Cup and Handle (C&H) pattern started from the top of the previous Bull Cycle. Even though this is a valid technical pattern, it may have gone ignored by some as traders tend to focus either on shorter term price action or cyclical structures that are often repeated from Cycle to Cycle.
It is undeniable though that the C&H principles are applied on this chart almost to the last little detail and the pattern is now in the process of completing its Handle, in the form of a Channel Down.
How low can it go before completed, largely depends (in our opinion) on which of the following MA periods will hold: the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) or the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line)?
The 1D MA200 provided the earliest Support of the current Bull Cycle on the week of March 06 2023, in fact it was an excellent 'touch-and-rebound' wick. The 1W MA50 has been supporting since the March 13 2023 break-out and came closer to the price action on the week of September 11 2023.
What seems even more useful/ reliable than the above, is the expected % rise after the bottom is made. As you can see, every since the November 2022 Bear Cycle bottom, Bitcoin has had 3 expansion legs, ranging from +91% to +99%. Starting from the first, each has been -4% to -5% less than the previous.
As a result, assuming the 1D MA200 holds and the Handle is completed there, we can expect the next Expansion Leg to reach the $100k - $110k Target Zone.
But what do you think? Which MA will hold, the 1D MA200 or 1W MA50? And what will your Target be after? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Repeating Same LTF Pattern on HTF?Here's an idea I haven't seen proposed. What if we're repeating the same pattern we saw between approx 40-50k, on a higher timeframe and between 50-85k.
Just like the blue pattern before it, it starts with a new high being made, then a low well above old highs, then a lower high followed by a higher low, then a higher high followed by a 2nd higher low (slightly lower than the previous higher low), finally a 3rd and significantly higher high followed be a strong lower low but still above old highs prior to the new high.
Let's see if it happens again!
Still in a Bull Market..180k by March 2025?From my analysis, using Fib Time, Fib Extensions, Fractals, Market Structure, and the current price action forming a bull flag, I placed my rough fractal idea over the top of the BTC chart alongside timing..
Double/Triple top could play out to finish off this cycle.. or it could be a blow off top (less likely with more capitalized markets..
173-182k is my top target for this cycle.. though price could fall short of this.. if this plays out, then I'd expect the next market bottom to form around current prices (~57k in November 2026)