Bitcoin-btcusd
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) traders are still undecided Bitcoin EASYMARKETS:BTCUSD
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Bitcoin's Dual Scenario Analysis 📊Bitcoin (BTC) currently presents two possible scenarios, each with unique potential outcomes. Here, we'll explore both without assigning specific probabilities to avoid bias.
Scenario A: The Bearish Outlook 📉
In this scenario, Bitcoin is forming lower highs and lows within a small cycle. A descending channel could also be drawn if desired. For this scenario to activate, the price needs to consolidate below the $60,000 mark. Should this occur, a downward movement towards the $48,000 area may begin.
Key points to consider:
A knot at the $55,000 level on the 4-hour timeframe could potentially reduce downward momentum.
The next critical support lies between $50,000 and $48,000. This range has acted as both a past resistance and monthly support, supported by Fibonacci retracement levels of 61.8% and 70.7% PRZ.
I am not placing a buy order yet, as I need to be sure that this zone can indeed support the price and provide upward momentum. If this area holds and the market momentum reverses, I might adjust my analysis or wait for $65,000 before taking further action.
Scenario B: The Bullish Outlook 📈
Following a break above $65,000, Bitcoin has formed its first higher high on the daily timeframe after three months. This is an early sign of returning bullish momentum. Risk-takers, particularly if Bitcoin's dominance is also rising, might consider entering at this point with a stop loss at $55,000.
For a safer entry:
Wait for a break above $72,000. The expected range upon breaking this level could be between $85,000 and $90,000. However, discussing these levels might be premature now.
Important Consideration 🚨
Remember, no one can predict financial markets with certainty; these are merely scenarios. As traders, we must learn to live in the moment and react optimally to unfolding events.
👍 If you found this analysis helpful, feel free to like, comment, or share! For more insights, follow #Tradecitypro and #TCP. 🚀
🔖 Categories: Trend Analysis, Support and Resistance, Supply and Demand
📌 Stay tuned for updates, and happy trading!
BITCOIN starting a mega rally. See when alts will follow.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just completed the final consolidation phase (red Rectangle) that as per the price action of past Cycles, is the final stage before the 1-year rally to the new Top. As you can see alt coin market (black trend-line) tends to bottom after Bitcoin's rally has already started and when it turns sideways again for a few weeks.
Technically alts make that 2nd major Higher Low on their Cycle and rebound when BTC investors take some profits and direct a certain portion of capital to the riskier but more generous in terms of returns, altcoin market.
So if you're wondering what to do next, be bullish on BTC and as the new rally extends, start taking profits towards August and make sure you're invested in alts. The lower their dominance is by then, the better.
Do you agree with this approach? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin: New Buy Signal Off 60K.Bitcoin has found overall support just off the 56K level (on my chart) and has rallied back to the 64K resistance only to retest the 60K level (see illustration on chart). This is the scenario I described in my previous article and price is now in an ideal location for a swing trade long on this time frame. Interestingly enough, my Trade Scanner Pro system generated a long signal upon the close in the 64K area which I warned people against taking. Now is the time to be using the system to look for longs on smaller time frames such as the 1 hour. When using this system (or ANY system) CONTEXT is key.
Context comes in many forms, but when it comes to my trend following momentum reversal system, it is all about trend relative to support/resistance levels. These two components are ALL you need to identify higher probability signals vs. more random signals or noise. It is best to think of the signals as a form of confirmation. For example, the 60K area for Bitcoin is CLEARLY a major support level. While there is no guarantee long signals will produce an positive outcome from that level, there is a GREATER probability since price has reacted in this way MULTIPLE times over the previous few months. With or without a system, it is better to be looking for buying opportunities at such a level.
The more important question is how much to risk? Typically on this time frame you are looking at about 1500 pts. based on the recent candle stick pattern. The Trade Scanner is showing even greater risk, but also a greater potential reward (TP is near 72K). Again,CONTEXT carries more weight in these situations. While 72K is a possibility since the broader trend is still bullish, it is better to expect less in a consolidating environment. Using the 64K, and 68 to 70K resistance areas would be better choices in my opinion which puts reward/risk between 2.5:1 to greater than 4:1. Expecting LESS means IF price reaches the first resistance, TAKE something off the table.
It is very important to understand that markets are MOSTLY RANDOM (I repeat this A LOT). This means NO system or analyst can accurately forecast where price will be in the future consistently. Price is determined by the perception of the active market participants, which can be retail traders, institutions, algos, etc. And all of these participants buy and sell for numerous reasons. What drives prices one way or the other are when there are large imbalances in the order flow. This is why a piece of unexpected news can come out of nowhere and completely change the participants perception of the future. Just two months ago, Bitcoin was going to be at 100K by now based on what the internet gurus were forecasting. No one was calling for a test of 56K when price was pushing 73K.
This game is about probability and risk, NOT about how "early investors will make billions". There is a misconception that investors outperform traders and if you comparing the average investor to the average trader this statement may hold true. The part they don't mention though is that investors ASSUME MORE RISK since they are always in the market. People who happen to buy at LOW prices will outperform, but what about the people who buy near the top? This is when the average investor typically buys because the market looks its greatest (and the internet hype is the loudest). To outperform the typical investor or trader, you still need to have a way to gauge context: how low is low? how high is too high? And these questions are ALL a function of how much RISK you are willing to take.
Profitability comes from good RISK management which is rooted in gauging opportunities that carry a greater potential relative to the associated risk. And this can be accomplished by knowing how to evaluate CONTEXT.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
btc → stil need to touch the lower levelhello guys...
I think the main trend still is bearish due to the last move!
the 50% of the last downward movement seems an interesting area to get a short position until the price touches the 59k area!
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BTCUSD Analysis (12th May 2024)
Crypto Analysis (12th May 2024)
BTCUSD Analysis
On the 4 hour timeframe, price has swept the liquidity at 64724.63 level and proceeded to create a CHOCH to the downside. The market followed through by creating another BOS after rejecting a 4 hour OB.
There are 2 scenarios i am looking at right now.
1) Price retraces into the FVG and creates a 15 minute CHOCH to continue the sells towards the 57000 Level. Its important to ensure the CHOCH that happens with a body candle close, for extra confirmation.
2) IF price breaks past the FVG and takes out the lower high created, we would have a bullish CHOCH. and i will be expecting a break and retest of the CHOCH level at 63511 level before looking for buys.
Bitcoin: Buy Low. Sell High. All Time HighBuy low. Sell high. All-Time High. #Bitcoin
I'm anticipating a #Bitcoin pullback into the end of May. Get close to RSI oversold condition - maybe touch the 30 lower level on the RSI - and then a quick reversal as #Bitcoin resumes its Bullish narrative towards ALL TIME HIGH.
It's a great time to be alive. I for one, will be partying as we ride the rocket into this new paradigm...
BITCOIN FAKE BREAKOUT ON SUPPORT, WHAT'S NEXT?🚀Bitcoin recently experienced a false breakout below a key support level within the daily timeframe. This event hinted at a potential reversal, marked by a robust recovery from the previous sell-off, rebounding to the $57k-56k range. Re-entering the demand zone signaled a bullish sentiment, and yet another rejection occurred at the major trend line.
The anticipation of a bullish rally hinges on a breakout above this trend line. Until then, expectations of a significant upward movement remain uncertain. However, if such a breakout materializes, the next significant resistance level is anticipated around $71k.
Conversely, should Bitcoin falter once more within the demand zone and undergo a bearish breakout, the bullish outlook would be nullified.
BITCOIN Another 1D MA50 rejection. More bleeding ahead?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke again below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) after the 3rd rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) in almost 1 month (since the April 13 bearish break-out). If it stays unbroken, it is a far from ideal development as the 1-year price action has shown us that such a pattern risks making a Lower Low.
The technical structure since April 08 is a Channel Down nonetheless, so such feat is certainly possible on the short-term. As you can see from past 1D MA50 bearish break-outs, BTC tends to get more than 2 rejections and excluding January 2024, it has stayed below the 1D MA100 for longer.
What's interesting is that if that Lower Low is made, it wouldn't just make a 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) test, but would also almost complete a -30% decline from the recent All Time High. Something that during Bull Cycle rallies is perfectly natural for Bitcoin.
SO do you think the market will go for it?? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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📉 Bitcoin Price Update: Medium-Term Downtrend Continues 📉Hello, fellow traders and investors! 😊Let's dive into the latest analysis of Bitcoin's price movement.
As we assess the current market conditions, it's evident that we remain within a medium-term downtrend. Despite recent attempts to break above the main descending trendline, the price has failed to sustain upward momentum. This failure to breach the trendline resistance suggests that further downside movement is likely in the near future.📉
What can we expect next?👀 With anticipated minor pullbacks along the way, it's reasonable to project a descent towards the key psychological level of $60,000. However, the journey doesn't end there. Once we reach this level, it will be crucial to closely observe price action for potential further developments.
While my bias leans towards a continuation of the downtrend with a target of $58,000 and potentially lower, it's important to exercise patience and vigilance. Market dynamics can change rapidly, and it's essential to adapt our strategies accordingly.📊
Stay tuned for more updates as we navigate through these market movements together! Don't hesitate to share your insights and observations in the comments below.🩷
Happy trading!🫶
Thanks for Your attention 🫶
Always sincerely with You, Kateryna💙💛
BITCOIN Nothing to stop this Channel reaching 100k.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is trading within the Rally Channel (green) with the price having already reached its bottom, making the 2nd Higher Low of the pattern. This is the very same pattern that emerged in the previous Cycle after the Growth Channel Up and took BTC to its new All Time High (ATH) at the time.
Both Growth Channels had a crash event below them, the previous Cycle even had a bubble event above it (Libra euphoria). But once the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) turned into a Support after the Halving, the Bitcoin rally never looked back.
The 1W STOCH indicator, which is very similar to the past Cycle as well, shows that we might even be much earlier in the Cycle symmetrically than we think of. In any case the next two Higher Highs for the Rally Channel are $100k and $140k.
But what do you think? Are those Targets even plausible, let alone achievable by the end of Summer? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Approaching Pullback SupportBitcoin (BTC/USD) is falling towards a pullback support that has been identified as the pivot. Could this crypto-currency stall around this level before potentially reversing to bounce higher towards the 1st resistance?
Pivot: 61,784.37
1st Support: 59,147.37
1st Resistance: 64,566.91
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bitcoin stages rebound but large speculators are not buyingFollowing a breakdown below $57,000, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rebounded last week in a broad market risk-on move. Currently, it trades near the $64,000 price tag, situated slightly above the 20-day SMA, which now acts as a critical support level; a failure to hold ground above this level will be concerning, while a success could foreshadow continuation higher. With that in regard, resistance at $67,241 and support at 60,760 are of the utmost focus.
Illustration 1.01
The image portrays the daily chart of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and two simple moving averages. The 20-day SMA acts as the critical support level, while the 50-day SMA acts as resistance. Thus far, Bitcoin has managed to close above the 20-day SMA for two consecutive days, which is quite positive. However, due to closes above this level occurring over the weekend, it is appropriate to wait for at least one more close above the 20-day SMA before committing to a bullish narrative.
Illustration 1.02
The picture above shows simple support and resistance levels on the daily chart of Bitcoin (BTCUSD).
Bitcoin addresses
Interestingly, despite last week’s drop below $60,000, the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC has not increased, potentially hinting at large speculators’ lack of appetite to buy Bitcoin at a discount. The same applies to the addresses with balances exceeding 100 BTC.
Technical conditions
Daily time frame = Slightly bearish
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Monthly time frame = Bullish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BTC (Bitcoin vs US Dollar) :: Super Bullish Trend Soon !!!On the monthly time frame, the RSI pattern of 2017 is repeating, which led to a great bull run.
I think it needs a monthly confirmation candle to close above the $75,000 price, in such a situation, a huge bull run in crypto could start.
At that time, the peak of 2013, i.e. $1,200, was a monthly major pivot, which in 2017 needed to form a monthly bullish candle to confirm the upward passage.
Currently, the 2021 peak of $69,000 is a major monthly pivot and a monthly bullish candlestick above $75,000 must be closed to confirm the breakout of the 2021 peak.
MarketBreakdown | EURUSD, BITCOIN, CRUDE OIL, EURGBP
Here are the updates & outlook for multiple instruments in my watch list.
1️⃣ #EURUSD daily time frame 🇪🇺🇺🇸
EURUSD is trading in a bearish trend on a daily.
The price is falling steadily within a falling wedge pattern.
With a recent correctional movement, the price reached the resistance of the range.
A trend-following movement may initiate soon.
Alternatively, a bullish breakout of the resistance of the wedge will trigger a trend reversal.
2️⃣ #BITCOIN daily time frame ₿
After a very bullish movement on Friday, the market violated a resistance line
of a falling wedge pattern on a daily.
It is the important sign of strength of the buyers.
Looks like the market may keep growing.
3️⃣ #WTI CRUDE OIL 🛢️
As I predicted, Crude Oil keeps falling.
The price is very close to 2 significant demand clusters.
Probabilities will be high to see a pullback from one of these structures.
4️⃣ #EURGBP daily time frame 🇪🇺🇬🇧
The price nicely respected a key daily horizontal demand zone
and bounced from that.
With a clear strength of the buyers the pair may keep growing easily.
Do you agree with my market breakdown?
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
BTC/USD Long Signal: It's NOT over yet! Bullish Flag PatternWe're spotlighting a LONG opportunity for BTCUSD (Spot & Futures)
Trading Signal
Entries: 63.5k (Market Orders), 67k (Conditional Limit Orders)
Stop Loss: 57.9k to safeguard your trade (Limit Sell)
Profit Targets
Target 1: 82k, adjust to breakeven
Target 2: 89k
Target 3: 102k
Helpful Tips
Save Money: Use limit orders instead of market orders for lower fees.
Stick To Your Plan: This is key for making progressive gains!
Control Your Risk: Your stop-loss order protects you against unforseen market reversals.
We aim to provide high-quality signals that guide you to success. Happy trading!
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Pullback resistance at 78.6% Fibonacci retracementBitcoin (BTC/USD) is rising towards a pullback resistance that has been identified as the pivot. Could this crypto-currency stall around this level before potentially reversing to drop lower towards the 1st support?
Pivot: 64,566.91
1st Support: 61,784.37
1st Resistance: 66,916.02
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
MSTR MicroStrategy Incorporated Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold MSTR on this potential fair value retracement:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MSTR MicroStrategy Incorporated prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 1250usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-5-17,
for a premium of approximately $120.25.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.