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Bitcoin-btcusd

BITCOIN - We Could Be In The Final Move Now...The current count is under scrutiny due to VRA surpassing previous highs unexpectedly. This development challenges previous assumptions. My current hypothesis suggests that we're witnessing Wave 5 within Wave E, marking the final corrective phase of the entire correction cycle. While my recent success in predicting the latest drop might seem fortunate, the manner in which it unfolded, resembling a zig-zag pattern, deviates from the typical downward movement of Wave (C). Instead, it resembles the conclusion of a Wave 4 correction. Initially, my target lies in breaking the highs around 68,250, potentially forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern, which is intriguing. However, within the broader context of a head and shoulders pattern, this move would only contribute to the development of the right shoulder.
by AriasWave
Halving on the HorizonBitcoin’s market is presenting a technical conundrum as we hover around the $65,000 mark. The currency is entrenched in a minor downtrend channel, repeatedly testing but not breaking a key resistance level. There’s an observable struggle to climb past this threshold, keeping traders on alert for potential price direction cues. Repeated approaches to the $62K support zone raise questions about the market's ability to sustain the previous rally's momentum. With each test, the likelihood increases that we might see a dip below this critical range. Traders should watch for either a decisive break above the resistance or a confirmation of the downtrend if the support gives way. As we analyze the charts, the Bollinger Bands suggest a narrowing of price volatility, often a precursor to significant price movements. With the MACD indicating bearish momentum and the Stochastics nearly oversold, we're at a stage where any substantial market news could tip the scales. Adding to the mix is the upcoming Bitcoin halving event in April, which is expected to slash the rate of new Bitcoin entering the market by half, from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC every ten minutes. This event has historically impacted market dynamics and could be a catalyst for price movement, as reduced supply often leads to heightened demand pressures.
by MonoCoinSignal
Bitcoin Levels Matter (ATH BLM)I have been patient to not issue new bearish projections until I see what I know to be objective price action evidence. With Sunday's Weekly bar close we received such a signal. In this post I want to detail how important this signal is in the understanding of price action as well as in actionable trading. I will present what I think is likely in the near term for Bitcoin price. Finally at the end I will present my long term bullish Bullish thesis. While chatting with a Bitcoin Maximalist friend I mentioned I was waiting for this event to confirm or reject the current price battle of the former All Time High. I also wagered a one way bet that IF this happens I will don a priest outfit and proclaim that Bitcoin is finally bullish for this cycle. My friend asked: I've never gotten a decent explanation for why technical analysis people care about the closing price for a market that never closes. What's so special about the price on Sunday at midnight or whatever? It is important for two reasons: A week is a week across the globe. Stock markets close their 5 days. Crypto all settles on GMT. It is therefor a mostly standardized unit of time. It lets one aggregate and consider the price data for that period of time as objectively as possible. It makes one patient. By waiting for the bar to close... one can separate from emotional decisions and avoid false breakouts. What one would want to see on a solid breakout is a Weekly bar to close well beyond the past All Time High. Such an event was evident in the 2020 Bitcoin bull run: There was no question as to if this breakout was successful and from this point price rallied much farther. Indeed one had to be patient through an 18% week but price continued higher for a rally of 175% before topping out and creating a new ATH. The opposite of this concept was on display in late 2021 when the last cycle's bull run failed not once but twice: Those that do not look to price action for making decisions may present other reasons as to why the 2021 run did not continue. I have been told that Sam Bankman-Fried was "selling fake Bitcoins" and that other market actors like Celsius were to blame. I reject these narratives. The price is the price. There is no more we can prove or attribute causation than what we see on the chart. The fundamental premise, embodied in price closing higher or lower from where it was before, is simply: If it was truly bullish... people would have kept buying. Looking for a weekly bar to close or reject is the most objective way we have to analyze that choice of market participants. Also for traders the level is very important in the short term. There have been MANY actionable respects of these prior levels from nearly 3 years ago that can be seen when one goes down to the lower timeframes. Knowing where these levels are is very important to short term traders when looking for entries and exits. So what may happen now? We can look back to the 2017 ATH break for the most analogous example. Following the first week closing above, and the second week closing below, price retraced -33.5% from its new ATH. If we projected a similar movement to the current price action of Bitcoin it would place price at around the last consolidation zone at 51.8k Now finally yes I do have a long term bullish Bitcoin prediction. Over the course of this bull run I've had the opportunity to talk with many Bitcoin Maximalists who espouse the theory that Bitcoin will replace the imminently failing US Dollar and become a global reserve currency. I do not believe this eventuality is likely. In fact, I do not think it will happen within the next decade certainly if not ever. Bitcoin does not scale as a technology to suit this requirement of the world. It is also far too complicated for true mass adoption when compared to the ease of use of CBDCs. Above all though Bitcoin fails as money because no one will spend a money which they believe will have infinite value in the future. While Bitcoin has some fantastic properties I cannot logically come to the conclusion that it will transcend human nature. What I do think is that Bitcoin has limited supply and is a store of value. I think that as long as people believe it has value, buy it, do not sell it, and encourage others to do so through memes... the Number Go Up (NGU). NGU I believe is Bitcoin's primary use case and it does not require Bitcoin to be anything more than it is. What has become interesting to chart is the logarithmic price of Bitcoin over its history. I do not use logarithmic for trading but I do believe it is useful in demonstrating the long term exponential properties of Bitcoin in both price AND supply. While the returns of Bitcoin, expressed by All Time Highs and then cycle lows, are increasing... by the rate of increase is decreasing . The drawdowns, by the way, are remaining large at -75-95% but there is not much room for variability there. It is interesting that as we observe more of Bitcoin's price history the price itself is following an exponential model at a curve incredibly similar to the supply itself. The chart above is my rough attempt using angles to draw a curve but it paints a reasonable picture for predicting what this future curve may look like. Where I would expect this cycle's new ATH to be is around 145k by end of year if it happened within said time. The curve then further suggests a price of 300k by 2030. The vaulted "1 million dollar Bitcoin" much memed is something perhaps our children will see in 2100. If we consider these numbers; 125% Return in 1 year 367% Return in 6 years (29.4% APR) 1462% Return in 76 years (3.7% APR) These returns are fantastic compared to other investments. However, they are admittedly less meme worthy and unlikely to be very widely circulated on social media which tilts to extremes for greater exposure. When I talk to another Bitcoin Maximalist friend who believes in "The Bitcoin Standard" he explains to me that the volatility problem of Bitcoin will be solved by mass adoption. I do not believe that this true as introducing more humans with more emotions creates more volatility... but we do seem to arrive at the same answer of reducing volatility over a long timeline. Another thing this curve model suggests about the cycle lows is that even in 2030 the cycle low will be around 65k... where we are right now. Some Bitcoiners like to repeat meme such as "the best time to buy is yesterday, the next best time to buy is NOW" which serve to encourage lack of patience in favor of their bags going up via new buyers. My personal meme is "Bitcoin will be more expensive and Bitcoin will be cheaper than it is today." Both my meme and waiting for price action to confirm keeps me patient.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by norok
15
BITCOIN New bottom formed. Rally could aim well above $100k.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is at the early stages of a new parabolic rally, similar to January - March, as a key bullish development took place. The 1D RSI hit the 50.00 neutral (middle) level for the first time since breaking above it on January 26 2024 and rebounded, while keeping the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) intact. This is a strong bullish signal for the Bull Cycle. BTC has been within a range for the majority of this month and last time all those parameters emerged together was in late November - early December 2020. At that time, Bitcoin also hit the 50.00 RSI level, held above the 1D MA50 and after being ranged for almost a month, it started a new parabolic bullish leg towards the 6.0 Fibonacci extension before the next 1D MA50 pull-back. As you can see, both sequences capped a roughly +100% rise since the previous Lows where the price made contact with the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and eventually bounced. The 1D MA100 wasn't touched again for almost 7 months, not before BTC approached the 8.0 Fib extension, completing a +563% rise from that Low. The fractals are virtually identical so far and if the current price action continues to replicate 2020/ 2021, we expect the 1D RSI to hit 90.00 again before retracing. If $100k isn't hit at that time, we will book profits regardless and buy again on the next 1D MA50 contact. Until then, $100k is our next Target. But what do you think? Is 100k a realistic target that soon and if yes can Bitcoin repeat 2021 to its full extent and even reach 250k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
18
Bitcoin $65,100 Becomes Pivotal SupportBitcoin (BTCUSD) finds itself at a critical juncture, currently clinging to the $66,600 level after a recent dip from its daily high of $68,200. Analysts are closely watching this price point, as it could determine the direction of the market in the coming days. Support and Resistance Levels in Focus If the bulls fail to defend $66,600, the next potential support level sits at $65,100. A breach of this level could trigger a further decline towards $61,000 , a more significant support zone. However, if the selling pressure intensifies and $61,000 crumbles, a drop to the bottom support at $50,800 becomes a possibility. On the flip side, a decisive break above $68,000 could signal a return to bullish momentum. The first target for the bulls would likely be the daily resistance area of $70,200. "This is a make-or-break moment for Bitcoin." A sentiment is that a hold above $68,000 is crucial to maintain positive momentum. Conversely, a drop below this level could trigger a cascade of sell orders, pushing the price lower. The recent price volatility in Bitcoin is attributed to a confluence of factors, including: Profit-taking : After a strong rally in recent weeks, some investors may be looking to cash in on their gains. Macroeconomic jitters : Rising interest rates and ongoing geopolitical tensions are creating uncertainty in the broader financial markets, which can also impact cryptocurrency prices. Regulation : Regulatory scrutiny from governments around the world continues to be a headwind for the cryptocurrency market. Looking Ahead The next few days will be crucial for Bitcoin. If the bulls can hold the line at $66,600 and push the price higher, it could signal a continuation of the uptrend. However, a breakdown below this level could lead to a more significant correction. Investors are advised to closely monitor price action and key support and resistance levels as the situation unfolds.
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by Z4F4R
Stellar and Compound Breakout OpportunitiesAs you can see on the weekly charts, both XLM and COMP have formed inclining breakout patterns. If the current bitcoin support holds, this could be an opportunity for smaller coins to make massive runs, and these two coins are some of my favorites. They are far off from all-time highs, but the bearish trend has stopped for both and they seem to be emerging into a strong uptrend. I have indicated potential targets on the charts as well. Good luck!
Long
by Investor4321
FED has to lower Rates or face Emergency QE.(Not a game) Jerome Powell lied to say he raised rates due to "Inflation", this was a great cover however he clearly saw the USDJPY crisis coming like I saw from last year. (Inverted Charts) The DXY Rising + the USDJPY rising will unwind the carry trade that will sell off the majority of people holding US bonds via Japan. This will force the FED to initiate YCC locally. Japan CANNOT keep rates low at this point or they will enter the no way out hyperinflation by 2025. America CANNOT rise rates increasing the USDJPY past the point of no return (currently at 160) Yes we are at 151 and the complete fail point is 160. Everyone has been expecting a recession, where is it? Everyone is expecting a rate hike, will the FED do it? Path 1 -- FED Hike or Hold, USDJPY falls below the point of no return, Japan is now forced to try raise rates while restarting YCC + Stimulus (at this point the Yen is now a failed currency and it could lead to mass political instability that causes a carry trade sell off) Path 2 -- FED lowers rate's, USDJPY starts to revert pressure on the Japanese currency (at this point the FED is now taking the hit of debasement to try stabilize Japan). Our financial system has been sick since the gold depeg, it has gotten sicker after 2009, 2020 has put us into critical times. I wish this was real but we are at the end of the MMT cycle. The US is forced into a corner to not raise rates to deal with risk markets rising while DEBT interest + US Gov to DEBT ratio make's raising rates unaffordable. Japan after WW2 has become the YCC hub for America and rightfully so it worked due to the innovation that came out of Japan that brought them enough wealth to forget this policy. This is the part where if Jerome Powell say's the wrong thing today, it could be time to exit majority of capital from the legacy system for future protection. Capital Controls? Communism? Banking Limits? Spot Bitcoin ETF limitations? Executive Order 6102? I'm genuinely concerned that majority of people want rate hikes that will destabilize the entire world due to debt and cause a communist style global financial shutdown to contain the disaster. What a failed monetary policy era we live in.
by FederalXBT
BTC - Institutional Accumulation Zone Signals Trend ReversalThe Bitcoin futures market is showing signs of a potential reversal short-term bearish impulse, with institutional traders accumulating positions in a newly identified accumulation zone. This zone, marked on the chart, represents an area where large buyers have been actively buying BTC futures contracts. The accumulation zone has been formed after a period of consolidation and sideways trading, following a sharp downtrend. The fact that institutional traders are accumulating in this zone suggests that they believe the downtrend is coming to an end and that a new uptrend is about to begin. Furthermore, we should observe a key resistance level marked on chart, which can adds further credence to the bullish outlook. This breakout would signal that the sellers have been exhausted and that the buyers are now in control. If the price action can continue to trade above the resistance level, it will be a strong indication that the downtrend has ended and that a new uptrend is underway. Traders should watch for a retest of the resistance level as a potential buying opportunity.
CME:BTC1!Long
by skyline-trader
Bitcoin's Long Term Trend Line & Days To The Next TopIf you look back in Bitcoin's history for the past 3 cycles you can see that after breaking the previous all time high it has about 280 days to 350 days before reaching to the top. Also take a look at the long term trend line which has been very strong throughout the past 9 years. In 2022 Bitcoin dropped under $20k and in 2023 it was a major resistance before breaking back above the trend line. Now in 2024, if Bitcoin tests that trend line again as a support region it is $55k. Afterward, BTC price should be going higher during the 280-350 days countdown to the next top.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by hightableandy
BITCOIN - Tracking Wave 2 - Wave E Bounce...We are presently navigating the concluding phase of Wave 2. The conclusion of this wave will signify the end of Wave 2 itself. A definitive indication that Wave 2 has concluded will be observed when we break below its inception point at $61,544. Significant effort and attention has been dedicated to thoroughly analyze this structure, ensuring we have a clear understanding of potential outcomes. Be cautious of a bounce, as it might lead to a retest of one of the moving averages.
by AriasWave
How Low Could We Go?As we dissect the price trajectory of Bitcoin over the recent weeks, a few patterns and key levels stand out sharply. Beginning in early February, Bitcoin embarked on an aggressive bullish rally, swiftly climbing past the resistance at $51,000. This upward movement was met with a period of consolidation before continuing its impressive ascent, reaching the vicinity of $62,000. After a brief stagnation, the momentum gathered strength once more, propelling prices to flirt with the previous all-time high ceiling of approximately $74,000. However, the market has signaled a change in tempo with the recent retracement to the $73,600 area. This dip merits attention as it may suggest the need to fill potential gaps, notably towards the $52,000 threshold. Such corrective phases are not uncommon following vigorous rallies and should be accounted for in any robust trading strategy, particularly in the notoriously unpredictable crypto space. The annotated chart highlights two critical support zones: one at $62,000 and a more pronounced one at $52,000. These levels, delineated by significant past consolidations, now serve as possible floors that may uphold price in the event of further downward pressure. On the technical front, there are notable shifts to consider. The RSI and Stochastic indicators are starting to pivot, suggesting a loss of the upward momentum that has characterized recent market behavior. Furthermore, the MACD has witnessed the bearish crossover, with the MACD line descending below the signal line, despite remaining above the zero line—a classic harbinger of increased selling pressure. Despite these signs, the overarching bullish sentiment cannot be dismissed. If the market regains its footing, we could witness Bitcoin challenging the resistance once again. The red trend line drawn from the non-homogeneous trend lines represents this barrier. It has been tested previously and remains a decisive factor for further bullish potential. The current price standing is a strategic inflection point. If we see a rebound, the pre-defined dynamic resistance levels will be crucial to determine whether Bitcoin can sustain a breakout. It's essential to monitor these areas closely as they could signal the market's next significant move. In conclusion, while there is a whisper of caution in the air with the technical indicators showing signs of a slowdown, the market's foundation remains robust. The support at $52,000 represents a critical stronghold, which is unlikely to be breached without significant market catalysts. As always, this analysis serves to prepare you for various market scenarios, enabling informed decision-making and effective risk management. Enjoyed the analysis? Don’t forget to hit like, drop a comment with your thoughts, and share it with your friends.
Short
by MonoCoinSignal
The one and only buy signal you should never ignoreWeekly RSI is approaching 30 again. Historically, this has signaled the cycle bottom . Whether you consider this a 4-year-cycle bottom, or a local bottom within a mega cycle , it doesn't really matter. All that matters is that a bullish reversal is just around the corner, and we likely won't see another buying opportunity like this for a few years. Could price dip again to $25k or $20k? Sure, and I'll buy there too. Either way, we're a hell of a lot closer to the bottom than the top, and that's what this game is all about. I'm stacking all my alt positions and reducing my BTC allocation in favor of alts.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by reees
24
Crypto losing steam?Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has broken below the level of 68,653.20 which has been identified as a pivot point. Could price potentially fall all the way down towards the 1st support? Pivot: 68,653.20 Support: 62,920.23 Resistance: 73,415.98 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:BTCUSDShort
by ICmarkets
Cryptolean Bitcoin BTC Update Bitcoin found a support at $64,360 and is having a bullish pullback, however IMHO, it is temporary. Below $69,654, BTC will be under bearish pressure. A sustained price action below $69,654 will push BTC price to re-test $64,360 and, possibly, lower to the key daily support at $59,920. Bitcoin has to move bullish and break through $73,423 for another bullish extension towards $78,223-$82,353. Intraday Chart Bitcoin is testing the bottom of the intraday range zone at $67,227 and below it is a bearish territory. A bullish rejection of $67,227 will push price to $70,692, however the move will be slow and choppy. A bearish break-out of $67,227 will lead to a re-test of $65,364 and lower to $61.562-$63,143, the key intraday support. Like once read! Thank you.
by Trade-Lean