Bitcoin: Range Low Buy Signal.Bitcoin has rejected the 70K area resistance as the pre halving consolidation unfolds. In hindsight, you were better off listening to things like support/resistance LEVELS and price structure rather than all of the social hyperbole going into the halving event. "Buy The Rumor, Sell the News" seems to be what is in play here and usually makes fools of people who are easily mislead by rocket ships on thumbnails. Now that Bitcoin is flirting with a relevant support level, a swing trade long setup with reasonable potential has a greater probability of appearing this week.
To succeed as a trader or investor, it is IMPORTANT to gauge the market in terms of probabilities. This means arguments on BOTH sides of the market must be considered at all times and based on something relevant to the market. When it comes to short term speculation, technical analysis often provides substantial arguments because it serves as a reflection of the underlying supply and demand of ORDER FLOW.
If you have been following the support/resistance levels that have been on my charts for WEEKS now, you can see how price has reacted. This is why when price pushes new highs but happens to be in the midst of a resistance zone, I become RISK ADVERSE, NOT MORE OPTIMISTIC. And while I receive criticism for being too conservative during very broad moves, I found it to be more effective is miss an outlier than to be stuck on the wrong side of the probability. Novices don't realize, it may work the first or second time, but over time, the probabilities will catch up and you will give back any profit made on the outlier.
As of now, price flirts with the 64K support and is presenting an inside bar which can turn into a buy signal IF 65K is taken out upon the close. What is compelling about this buy potential swing trade long signal? Price location. It is part of the range low consolidation within a broader bullish trend. Probability favors a test of high from these levels which can take price back to 68K or 69K areas. Risking 2K points in an attempt to capture 3K or 4K points is a worthwhile reward/risk.
IF the 61K area support breaks instead, a test of the 58K to 60K area becomes more probable. Keep in mind a bearish consolidation breakout increases the chance of a broader corrective move that is both unexpected and overdue. Have you seen the monthly chart? Vertical markets are typically unsustainable.
It will be interesting to see how price action plays out once the halving event is out of the way. Markets are HIGHLY random, and all it takes is unexpected news to change expectations. Prices don't cling to logic because they are driven by greed and fear. Two emotional forces that are shaped by PERCEPTIONS of the future. Trust PRICE not people.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
