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Bitcoin-btcusd

BITCOIN What is next narrative it will break?Since th 2021 Bear Cycle started, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) entered a phase that few could have predicted. You can very easily even call it the 'Cycle of Narrative Destruction' as since the June 13 2022 break below the previous All Time High (ATH), Bitcoin started breaking narratives that have been well established throughout its history and few thought could break. ** Five major narrative breaks so far ** Starting from the very first narrative destruction on the week of June 13 2022 (we are viewing this chart on the 1W time-frame), Bitcoin managed to break below the previous ATH (19350) for the first every in its history. Then a few months later in November 2022 in the aftermath of the FTX crash, it broke below the 1W MA300 (red trend-line) also for the first time ever. This resulted into the first ever 1W Death Cross around February 2023 and following the recovery during 2023, it naturally formed the first ever 1W Golden Cross around the last week of December first week of January 2024. The most recent narrative that BTC has destroyed was this week as it made a new ATH marginally above $69000, which was the first time it did so before the Cycle's Halving (which is due in mid April 2024). ** Which narrative is next to break? ** As you can see, those are 5 major narrative breaks in the span of 18 months. So what narrative will BTC break next? The first that comes to our mind as the market is rising that fast this high, is the Theory of Diminishing Returns (TODR). This theory implies (and has been correct so far) that each Cycle delivers lower returns than the previous. As you see on the charts, the first Cycle gave +531681% returns, the next one +62325%, then +11808% and the most recent +2051%. ** So 330k is realistic?? ** If this narrative is to break, it means that BTC would need to make a little over +2051% during the current Cycle. That suggests that we can be looking at a Cycle peak above $330000! Of course if that happens, it would mean that Bitcoin will also break above its historic Parabolic Growth Channel, which can be considered another narrative destruction. But what do you think? Can the Theory of Diminishing Returns be the next narrative to break and if not, which one do you think it will be? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
12
Bitcoin is pressing for a real ATHTwo days ago, following a very timid attempt at an all-time high, Bitcoin experienced a sharp and rapid drop to 60k. However, bulls regained control, and after some volatility within this range, the price stabilized between 65k and 67.5k. A closer look at the short-term chart reveals that pressure is mounting for an upward breakout, and this time, I anticipate a genuine all-time high. As long as the 63k to 64k zone remains intact, I expect the price to climb above 70k and possibly reach 78k in the next few sessions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
6
BTCUSDT → A possible downward movehello guys... as you can see bitcoin engulfed three important levels and I think it is possible to touch the last area too! on the other hand, we need to be sure about that so we can expect if the blue breaks down the last leg will become a manipulator move! so if the 67291 area breaks down get a short position until the bottom line of the channel touches, somewhere around the 64300 area! ______________________ always do your research. If you have any questions, you can write them in the comments below, and I will answer them. And please don't forget to support this idea with your likes and comment
by melikatrader94
16
Possible Monthly Double-TopWe could still see a monthly wick up to an area between 82.5k and 100k, drawing bulls in, prior to the March candle close, giving confirmation of new ATHs, suggesting a prolonged bull run. The monthly candle for February still closed at the exact same high as the October and November 2021 monthly candle close and open. If the March candle closes below ~61350, I would start considering that Bitcoin is topping out and may form a monthly double top. DXY moving up towards its September 2022 monthly high, around 112-115 would lend confluence to this idea, as Bitcoin and DXY are macro negatively correlated. Have been talking about this over the last year or so. Note this could happen faster than drawn if DXY turns up hard over the next month or two; getting above 112-115.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by dudebruhwhoa
BITCOIN Perfect symmetry shows $170k!This chart on the 1W time-frame shows how symmetric Bitcoin's price action has been before and after the March 2020 COVID crash with the price action has been before and after the November 2022 FTX crash. Both within the long-term structure of a Channel Up, the bottomed below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), turned a Resistance into Support when the rally really took off, while the 1W RSI was ascending on a Channel Up. Within this nearly 7 year Channel Up, BTC made its two Higher Highs peaks after a +1000% rally, which indicates that is the standard for the pattern. A repeat of a +1000% rise from the November 2022 bottom gives us a projected peak around $170000! How realistic do you think that is? Do you agree with that model? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
5
Bitcoin could continue its ascent to 67Last week was quite eventful for $BITSTAMP:BTCUSD. After breaking out of the two-week-long rectangle consolidation, the price surged, increasing by $10,000 in just a few days, or more notably, around 20%. However, after reaching a local high on Thursday, the price began consolidating recent gains and is adjusting to the $60,000 mark. The positive aspect for bulls is that this consolidation is forming a symmetrical triangle, which typically indicates a continuation pattern. The target for this pattern is the 67k zone. In conclusion, in my view, any dips should be considered opportunities for buying, and only if the price drops below 59K in terms of daily closing would this scenario be put on hold.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
15
Bitcoin H1 | Potential bullish breakoutBitcoin (BTC/USD) is rising towards a potential breakout level and could make a bullish continuation towards our take-profit target. Entry: 64,084.02 Why we like it: There is a potential breakout level Stop Loss: 60,383.00 Why we like it: There is a pullback support that sits below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level Take Profit: 67,712.80 Why we like it: There is a swing-high resistance level Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:BTCUSDLong
by VantageMarkets
The Bitcoin Matrix: Fibonacci’s $250k BlueprintI am tracing Bitcoin's trajectory to $250k using a unique technical lens - Fib circles on a logarithmic chart paired with extension spikes. These circles, six in number, have been instrumental in identifying key price action stages since Bitcoin's first halving. We group these stages into three 'duo-phases' ( I, II, III ) ( With two for each ) Each Macro Pair representing an integral era of Bitcoin's technical evolution in Logarithmic mode through s/r. I've also linked my other future proof Bitcoin analysis ideas below.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by MichaelBsul
4
Taking a look at a clear shot. Bitcoins been in a tight consolidation around the previous highs. It's unprecedented we break into new highs before halving, so I find it interesting we're so close to them. I believe some retracement is key here due to the rapid nature of the rise here, that or significant consolidation. For these reasons, I am taking a short here at the resistant level on this second tap, if this were a third or forth tap, I may be slightly more conservative, but this I feel is a moment to make it really count.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by Xploitify
Bitcoin: 5th Wave Completion?Bitcoin has rallied over 10K points from the 52K break out level that I wrote about in my previous article and refuses to deliver a meaningful pullback. In situations like this, you must not give in the the hype and fear of missing out. I see talk of 100K, etc. and all the video titles popping up on my feeds. What you should be focused on is how to best participate in this while acknowledging the magnitude of risk that comes along with it (no one talks about the risk). My chart now shows the label Wave 5?. Clearly 5 waves can be counted which makes this the 5th of a 5th wave. Within this 5th wave, there appears to be 4 subwaves which implies one more leg higher (see higher low consolidation between 60,300 and 63,500). This next bullish leg can test the 64,500 resistance or even the 69K all time high. This is also where MOST retail traders will think this market looks the greatest, and has the most potential, especially when the herd mentality hype machine pushes this idea. In reality, the opposite is true. What most traders do not realize is that corrective structures tend to follow 5th waves. In this case, it would be a broader corrective move that points to the potential scenario of price testing the 50K or even 40K level. This is NOT a forecast, this is the potential RISK that no one it talking about. Such a bearish scenario can take weeks or months to unfold so it is no something to expect tomorrow. Many traders are frustrated because they missed the home run, and they are not sure how to go about participating in this. Here is my suggestion: day trades only, long side only. Look for a pullback or break out on smaller time frames like 30 minute. For example, right now, the 63,500 range high is the next break out resistance. If price pushes through, that can qualify as an aggressive long day trade with the expectations of testing the 64K area. Expecting more puts you at greater risk of getting caught in a broader retrace. The ones who will get caught in this are the ones who believe whatever they are told. While anything is possible, it is the potential risk that will eventually be realized. All those who bought at 50K now "feel good" because the market has reinforced this high risk behavior. When the broader correction unfolds, it is these same people who get stuck because they are caught between greed and the fear of missing out. Broader corrective moves begin OUT OF NOWHERE. Usually coincides with some unexpected news. Do you remember what turned this market around the first time at 69K? Markets tend to move in cycles NOT in straight lines. Growth is followed by corrections, but there is no way to know how long or how far each cycle will persist. What we can measure is the potential risk, and that is what the basis of your judgement should be, NOT "100K is next!" because Bozo the Youtuber said so. In these situations it is more effective to take profits at highs, trade smaller and on lower time frames and expect LESS. Things always look the greatest at the top. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
44
A Traders’ Weekly Playbook: Records are there for breaking After a quiet start to the week in markets, Friday’s US session saw risk come alive. A poor US ISM manufacturing at 47.8 – notable in the new orders and employment sub-components – was married with comments from Fed members Lorie Logan and Chris Waller, in turn promoting a strong rally in US Treasuries, with additional rate cuts being priced through 2024. The result was new all-time highs in the US500, US30 and NAS100, with the US2000 eyeing a key breakout of its longer-term range high. New US equity highs backed new highs seen in the AUS200, JPN225 and EU Stoxx and GER40. Gold also got huge attention from clients, rallying 1.9% to set at a new closing high, and we’ve seen many in our alt-crypto offering (notably Bitcoin cash) ripping. We’ll see if the feel-good factor lasts, but I find it interesting that equity and risky assets rallied despite seeing poor US data – where it’s easy to argue that poor data that increases economic slowdown risk, could have prompted risk aversion. So, while we can also point to Fed chatter, it seems in this case bad economic data was good for risk, with the overriding factor being increased rate cut expectations. We’ll see if that same reaction is seen in the outcome of the US ISM services print and the various labour market readings, as these will be the key cross-asset drivers this week. Powell’s testimony to Congress will also get a look-in from traders and we know if he wants to move market pricing he can. The ECB and BoC meeting and the China NPC meeting will get good attention but will play second fiddle to the US data. The poor market internals in equity may be an amber warning sign to some, but market internals and breadth have offered no profitable signal for a while - pullbacks remain shallow and there is a hunt to go hard on risk. There is plenty to navigate this week but for now, the price action shows that the bulls are very much in control. Long equity hedged with gold exposures seems the play, and looking at the charts on the higher timeframes it feels like the path of least resistance being onwards and upwards. Good luck to all. The marquee event risks for the week ahead: The key risk events for markets this week – China NPC meeting, ECB meeting, Jay Powell’s testimony to Congress & US nonfarm payrolls. Monday Switzerland CPI (18:30 AEDT) – the market looks for CHF headline CPI to print 1.1% yoy (from 1.3%) and core CPI at 1% (from 1.2%). The CHF swaps market prices a 25bp cut at the Swiss National Bank (SNB) meeting on 21 March at 70%, so a weaker than expected CPI print should see the market push that implied to c.90%, suggesting the SNB could lead G10 central banks in the sequencing of policy easing. As a result the CHF could become a consensus short from hedge funds. Look for XAUCHF to rally hard on a weak CPI number. Tuesday   US ISM Services Index (Wednesday 02:00 AEDT) – the market looks for the services index to print 53.0 (from 53.4). Given the moves in risky assets (equity, credit) and gold post last week’s ISM manufacturing this data point could drive market volatility. A print below 51.0 would be a surprise and promote further upside in XAUUSD, with the market putting notable attention on the new orders and unemployment components of the survey. Japan (Feb) Tokyo CPI (10:30 AEDT) – the market looks for JP headline CPI to print 2.5% (from 1.6%) and CPI ex-food and energy unchanged at 3.1%. After last week’s upside surprise in the JP national CPI print, and the upside move in 2-year JGB yields to 0.19% (the highest level since May 2011), the market will watch this one closely and an upside surprise could see JPY shorts cover. BoJ Gov Ueda speaks at a fintech summit (15:00 AEDT) – after speaking last week at the G20 meeting and his comments considered dovish, we’ll see if this is the forum for a change in Ueda’s stance. ‘Super Tuesday’ – the biggest day in the primaries calendar, with some 15 states voting to nominate their choice of Presidential nominee. Given Trump’s result in South Carolina, it seems a done deal that he will get the REP nomination, so it's hard to see Super Tuesday as a market event. China 14th National People Conference – the market will learn of the government’s economic targets for 2024 and what they are aiming for GDP, inflation, unemployment, and the deficit. We should see officials target growth of “around 5%” but it is feasible they aim for more. Wednesday US JOLTS job openings (Thursday 02:00 AEDT) – the market looks for 8.89m job openings (from 9.026m) – Traders with long positions in equity and gold and USD shorts will want to see a weaker print vs consensus expectations. Australia Q4 GDP (11:30 AEDT) – the market looks for Q4 GDP of 0.3% QoQ / 1.4% YoY (from 2.1%), but expectations will be massaged as we get the partials (inventory, company profits, net exports as a percentage of GDP). Can’t see this being a mover of the AUD to any great degree, so would have limited concerns about holding AUD positions over this data point. UK Budget (23:30 AEDT / 12:30 local) – Rishi Sunak needs Jeremy Hunt to pull a rabbit out of a hat to get voter momentum into the UK election - but one questions if this budget moves the dial on voting intentions and impacts the UK bond market, and by extension the GBP? Recent media suggests the chance of a major fiscal boost from the budget has been reduced - see my colleague Michael Brown's preview here - pepperstone.com Bank of Canada meeting (Thursday 01:45 AEDT) – the BoC won’t move on policy and will almost certainly keep rates at 5%. Given the recent downside surprise in December GDP (1.1% YoY) and January CPI print (of 2.9%) we could get stronger guidance on future easing. CAD swaps price 85bp of cuts (or just over three 25bp cuts) by December, so the move in the CAD will come as traders reconcile the tone of the statement with this pricing. Thursday Fed chair Jay Powell testifies to Congress (Friday 02:00 AEDT) – Jay Powell’s testimony will garner big attention from the market, where most see Powell offering a balanced/neutral view of economic risk and policy – this is his last formal forum to speak before the 20 March Fed meeting, in which some feel some risk of a risk of a hawkish pivot. China trade data (no set time) – a hard one to react to given there is no set time for the release – the market looks for exports to increase by 3% and imports by 1.5%. A larger import number could boost currencies such as the AUD, NZD, and CLP. Japan labour cash earnings (10:30 AEDT) – while we look ahead at Japan’s spring wage negotiations, the market looks for cash earnings of 1.3%, which suggests real wages of -1.4% Mexico CPI (23:00 AEDT) – the market looks for headline CPI at 4.43% (from 4.88%) and core CPI at 4.62% (from 4.76%). Given recent economics, the prospect of a 25bp cut in the 21 March Banxico meeting looks likely, and the CPI print could reinforce that belief. Conversely, an upside surprise could see USDMXN break 16.9924 support and offer a larger downside move to 16.8000. ECB meeting (Friday 00:15 AEDT) – the ECB are not expected to ease until June, so the statement and Christine Lagarde’s speech will most likely reflect the market’s central view. The bar seems high for the ECB to open the door to an April cut at this meeting, and Lagarde’s commentary may point to a “few month months” of data before they ease. The ECB’s updated economic projections, while likely to be downgraded, will still not be poor enough to suggest increased urgency to normalize. Unless we get a big surprise from the ECB, I’d be looking to fade moves in EURUSD into a 1.0920 to 1.0760 range this week. Friday US nonfarm payrolls (Sat 00:30 AEDT) – the market looks for moderation from the blowout January report, where the consensus sits at a healthy 200k jobs created in February. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.7%, with average hourly earnings growing 4.3% yoy (from 4.5%). NFPs is the marquee event risk of the week, but forging a playbook is not clear cut – One questions if a rise in the U/E rate lifts risky assets as bond yields fall (rate cut expectations increase), or whether this outcome promotes risk aversion as traders consider the negative implications on economics. The USD will hold the cleanest read on the review of the data. Canada employment report (Sat 00:30 AEDT) – the market looks for 20k jobs created and a tick up in the U/E rate to 5.8%. International Women’s Day Saturday China CPI/PPI (12:30 AEDT) – the market sees CPI increasing by 0.2%, which would mark the first positive read after four months of falling consumer prices (month-on-month). PPI is eyed -2.6%. The trader’s concern here is around whether this offers any gapping risk for China assets, or its proxies (AUD, NZD, CLP etc) – I would argue it doesn’t. US earnings – Target, Marvell Technology, Costco, Broadcom Full Fed speaker line-up for the week
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by Pepperstone
1