BTC → Is it a continue pattern?!hello everyone...
I have seen a few analyses that suppose this pattern is a diverse pattern and the coin will dump soon!
but if you see this perspective you recognize the neckline is on the bottom line of the ascending channel!
I believe we should insist on a bullish trend unless the neckline and the bottom line of the channel will break down! so there is no reason for concern as far as the neckline works like resistance level!
as I mentioned before this kind of divergence is fake let’s hope this time will be fake too!
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Bitcoin-btcusd
BTCUSD to 85KINDEX:BTCUSD is looking ready for another big move up.
Currently we are squeezing into the tip of a steep ascending wedge of which we failed to break the top of for now.
But when we do, its gonna pump hard.
Damn these last few months have been exciting to trade!
We bounced hard of that macro line (blue), which belonged to a large descending wedge we broke out of (20-01-2023).
I consider that validation we weren't going down anymore...
That big pump, is an impulse of that validation, so expect 2 more waves up, straight back into the price area Bitcoin belongs in. (Macro red top line to Macro grey bottom line)
I've plotted some similar waves onto the chart from similar moves on INDEX:BTCUSD to get an estimation on how price could flow through time.
Have fun trading! Keep SAFU and remember to be patient.
Cryptolean Bitcoin BTC UpdateBitcoin is lingering around the daily minor support at $64,360.
Between $59,920 support and $69,653 resistance is the daily range zone where we will see a choppy, sideways price action.
A bearish break-out of $59,920 will push BTC lower to $51,660.
Bitcoin has to move bullish and break through $69,653-$73,423 in the daily chart for another bullish extension towards $78,223-$82,353.
Boost once read!
Thank you.
BTCUSD: Buy dip to 60k. Target 73750.Bitcoin is on a Bearish Megaphone, so far supported by the 4h MA200 and with the 4h MA50 as Resistance.
The pattern is targeting straight the 59350 Support and 1d MA50.
A 1d RSI again on the 30.00 oversold level would be a clear buy signal.
That can even be the Right Shoulder of an underlying Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern.
Buy and target the 73750 Resistance.
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📈Bitcoin is going to rebound? / Trading setups (Updates soon)📉BINANCE:BTCUSDT
COINBASE:BTCUSD
Hello dear traders.
In the 2-hour timeframe, Bitcoin is trying to stabilize above the 2-hour and 4-hour middle Bollinger lines.
The $69,500 level is an important resistance in front of Bitcoin, if Bitcoin fails to pass this resistance, a head-and-shoulders pattern scenario is likely.
Otherwise, above the $69,000 level, the Bitcoin scenario will change. (This analysis will be updated later)
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BTC/USD A possible head & shoulders forming pattern.Be aware of the next move, i still believe we are in a bearish downtrend as BTC broke a key structrue. But this could also happen before we will see a bigger retrace down to $48K. I think this will be healthy, then up in may. If we break down to GETTEX:48K sooner than may, I think may will be bullish. But if the market shift to bullish mode from now up to may, I think a major crash will take place in may and you should get out of the market. imo no financial advice.
BITCOIN Is $175000 so easy to achieve?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke its All Time High (ATH) this month, making history once again. The quest for the rest of the month is to close the March 1M candle above the previous ATH (69000). Why is this important? Because every time it did so in the past on each and every Cycle, the price never looked back and it entered the most aggressive part of the Bull Cycle: the Parabolic Break-out Phase.
This has coincided with the 1M RSI breaking above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level of the Fibonacci Channel Down. As you can see on the chart every time it did so, it reached (or almost) the top of the Channel Down (blue circle) while the price hit the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. During the first 2 Cycles the price went on even considerably higher than that (red rectangle) before the Cycle peaked, while the 1M RSI again hit the top of the Channel Down.
During the previous (most recent) Cycle though, there was no 2nd RSI top, as the price only marginally exceeded the 1.618 Fib with its 2nd top, in fact it didn't even close a 1M candle above it.
As a result, we may have a similar 'Double Top' Cycle this time also, but that's just the modest scenario. In any case the 1.618 Fib extension is now priced at $175000, which technically is a 'certainty' (if you can ever say that in investing) based on this historic chart and the Target of this Cycle.
But what do you think? Is $175k a given and if yes, will BTC surpass the 1.618 Fib for an even higher Cycle Top? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN MEGA BULLISH WAVE REVISIONI'm hesitant to delve too deeply into this count, as it seems almost inconceivable.
Nonetheless, I remain open to the possibility that this chaotic scenario is far from over. My primary objective is to profit, irrespective of the market's direction.
If this move is only just beginning, then I accept that reality.
I'd rather not be the pessimist whose predictions lead to financial ruin, as that would mean missing out on potential gains.
Currently, I'll note that critical support rests at 64,528, with a target likely exceeding 100,000. However, I'm withholding final judgment until we gather sufficient evidence to validate this assessment.
Heading into resistance?Bitcoin (BTC/USD) could rise towards a resistance level at 68,816.14 which has been identified as a pivot point. Could price stall around this level before potentially making a bearish reaction to drop lower?
Pivot: 68,816.14
Support: 60,981.92
Resistance: 73,304.38
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Bitcoin H4 | Potential bearish reversalBitcoin (BTC/USD) could rise towards a pullback resistance and potentially reverse off this level to drop towards our take-profit target.
Entry: 68,500.04
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
Stop Loss: 73,817.92
Why we like it:
There is a swing-high resistance level
Take Profit: 60,545.45
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
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BITCOIN - We Could Be In The Final Move Now...The current count is under scrutiny due to VRA surpassing previous highs unexpectedly.
This development challenges previous assumptions. My current hypothesis suggests that we're witnessing Wave 5 within Wave E, marking the final corrective phase of the entire correction cycle.
While my recent success in predicting the latest drop might seem fortunate, the manner in which it unfolded, resembling a zig-zag pattern, deviates from the typical downward movement of Wave (C). Instead, it resembles the conclusion of a Wave 4 correction. Initially, my target lies in breaking the highs around 68,250, potentially forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern, which is intriguing.
However, within the broader context of a head and shoulders pattern, this move would only contribute to the development of the right shoulder.
Bitcoin chart showing a large bearish and a smaller bullish H&S Bitcoin chart is showing a large bearish and a smaller bullish H&S pattern, wrestling over price action.
Who is going to win?
Merely technically speaking I would rather have a bearish bias.
This is no trading advice.
I use this platform for CMT training only.
Cheers!
Halving on the HorizonBitcoin’s market is presenting a technical conundrum as we hover around the $65,000 mark. The currency is entrenched in a minor downtrend channel, repeatedly testing but not breaking a key resistance level. There’s an observable struggle to climb past this threshold, keeping traders on alert for potential price direction cues.
Repeated approaches to the $62K support zone raise questions about the market's ability to sustain the previous rally's momentum. With each test, the likelihood increases that we might see a dip below this critical range. Traders should watch for either a decisive break above the resistance or a confirmation of the downtrend if the support gives way.
As we analyze the charts, the Bollinger Bands suggest a narrowing of price volatility, often a precursor to significant price movements. With the MACD indicating bearish momentum and the Stochastics nearly oversold, we're at a stage where any substantial market news could tip the scales.
Adding to the mix is the upcoming Bitcoin halving event in April, which is expected to slash the rate of new Bitcoin entering the market by half, from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC every ten minutes. This event has historically impacted market dynamics and could be a catalyst for price movement, as reduced supply often leads to heightened demand pressures.
Bitcoin Levels Matter (ATH BLM)I have been patient to not issue new bearish projections until I see what I know to be objective price action evidence. With Sunday's Weekly bar close we received such a signal. In this post I want to detail how important this signal is in the understanding of price action as well as in actionable trading. I will present what I think is likely in the near term for Bitcoin price. Finally at the end I will present my long term bullish Bullish thesis.
While chatting with a Bitcoin Maximalist friend I mentioned I was waiting for this event to confirm or reject the current price battle of the former All Time High. I also wagered a one way bet that IF this happens I will don a priest outfit and proclaim that Bitcoin is finally bullish for this cycle. My friend asked:
I've never gotten a decent explanation for why technical analysis people care about the closing price for a market that never closes. What's so special about the price on Sunday at midnight or whatever?
It is important for two reasons:
A week is a week across the globe. Stock markets close their 5 days. Crypto all settles on GMT. It is therefor a mostly standardized unit of time. It lets one aggregate and consider the price data for that period of time as objectively as possible.
It makes one patient. By waiting for the bar to close... one can separate from emotional decisions and avoid false breakouts.
What one would want to see on a solid breakout is a Weekly bar to close well beyond the past All Time High. Such an event was evident in the 2020 Bitcoin bull run:
There was no question as to if this breakout was successful and from this point price rallied much farther. Indeed one had to be patient through an 18% week but price continued higher for a rally of 175% before topping out and creating a new ATH.
The opposite of this concept was on display in late 2021 when the last cycle's bull run failed not once but twice:
Those that do not look to price action for making decisions may present other reasons as to why the 2021 run did not continue. I have been told that Sam Bankman-Fried was "selling fake Bitcoins" and that other market actors like Celsius were to blame. I reject these narratives. The price is the price. There is no more we can prove or attribute causation than what we see on the chart. The fundamental premise, embodied in price closing higher or lower from where it was before, is simply:
If it was truly bullish... people would have kept buying.
Looking for a weekly bar to close or reject is the most objective way we have to analyze that choice of market participants.
Also for traders the level is very important in the short term. There have been MANY actionable respects of these prior levels from nearly 3 years ago that can be seen when one goes down to the lower timeframes. Knowing where these levels are is very important to short term traders when looking for entries and exits.
So what may happen now? We can look back to the 2017 ATH break for the most analogous example. Following the first week closing above, and the second week closing below, price retraced -33.5% from its new ATH.
If we projected a similar movement to the current price action of Bitcoin it would place price at around the last consolidation zone at 51.8k
Now finally yes I do have a long term bullish Bitcoin prediction.
Over the course of this bull run I've had the opportunity to talk with many Bitcoin Maximalists who espouse the theory that Bitcoin will replace the imminently failing US Dollar and become a global reserve currency. I do not believe this eventuality is likely. In fact, I do not think it will happen within the next decade certainly if not ever. Bitcoin does not scale as a technology to suit this requirement of the world. It is also far too complicated for true mass adoption when compared to the ease of use of CBDCs. Above all though Bitcoin fails as money because no one will spend a money which they believe will have infinite value in the future.
While Bitcoin has some fantastic properties I cannot logically come to the conclusion that it will transcend human nature.
What I do think is that Bitcoin has limited supply and is a store of value. I think that as long as people believe it has value, buy it, do not sell it, and encourage others to do so through memes... the Number Go Up (NGU). NGU I believe is Bitcoin's primary use case and it does not require Bitcoin to be anything more than it is.
What has become interesting to chart is the logarithmic price of Bitcoin over its history. I do not use logarithmic for trading but I do believe it is useful in demonstrating the long term exponential properties of Bitcoin in both price AND supply.
While the returns of Bitcoin, expressed by All Time Highs and then cycle lows, are increasing... by the rate of increase is decreasing . The drawdowns, by the way, are remaining large at -75-95% but there is not much room for variability there. It is interesting that as we observe more of Bitcoin's price history the price itself is following an exponential model at a curve incredibly similar to the supply itself. The chart above is my rough attempt using angles to draw a curve but it paints a reasonable picture for predicting what this future curve may look like.
Where I would expect this cycle's new ATH to be is around 145k by end of year if it happened within said time. The curve then further suggests a price of 300k by 2030. The vaulted "1 million dollar Bitcoin" much memed is something perhaps our children will see in 2100.
If we consider these numbers;
125% Return in 1 year
367% Return in 6 years (29.4% APR)
1462% Return in 76 years (3.7% APR)
These returns are fantastic compared to other investments. However, they are admittedly less meme worthy and unlikely to be very widely circulated on social media which tilts to extremes for greater exposure.
When I talk to another Bitcoin Maximalist friend who believes in "The Bitcoin Standard" he explains to me that the volatility problem of Bitcoin will be solved by mass adoption. I do not believe that this true as introducing more humans with more emotions creates more volatility... but we do seem to arrive at the same answer of reducing volatility over a long timeline.
Another thing this curve model suggests about the cycle lows is that even in 2030 the cycle low will be around 65k... where we are right now. Some Bitcoiners like to repeat meme such as "the best time to buy is yesterday, the next best time to buy is NOW" which serve to encourage lack of patience in favor of their bags going up via new buyers. My personal meme is "Bitcoin will be more expensive and Bitcoin will be cheaper than it is today."
Both my meme and waiting for price action to confirm keeps me patient.
BITCOIN New bottom formed. Rally could aim well above $100k.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is at the early stages of a new parabolic rally, similar to January - March, as a key bullish development took place. The 1D RSI hit the 50.00 neutral (middle) level for the first time since breaking above it on January 26 2024 and rebounded, while keeping the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) intact.
This is a strong bullish signal for the Bull Cycle. BTC has been within a range for the majority of this month and last time all those parameters emerged together was in late November - early December 2020. At that time, Bitcoin also hit the 50.00 RSI level, held above the 1D MA50 and after being ranged for almost a month, it started a new parabolic bullish leg towards the 6.0 Fibonacci extension before the next 1D MA50 pull-back.
As you can see, both sequences capped a roughly +100% rise since the previous Lows where the price made contact with the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and eventually bounced. The 1D MA100 wasn't touched again for almost 7 months, not before BTC approached the 8.0 Fib extension, completing a +563% rise from that Low.
The fractals are virtually identical so far and if the current price action continues to replicate 2020/ 2021, we expect the 1D RSI to hit 90.00 again before retracing. If $100k isn't hit at that time, we will book profits regardless and buy again on the next 1D MA50 contact. Until then, $100k is our next Target.
But what do you think? Is 100k a realistic target that soon and if yes can Bitcoin repeat 2021 to its full extent and even reach 250k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin $65,100 Becomes Pivotal SupportBitcoin (BTCUSD) finds itself at a critical juncture, currently clinging to the $66,600 level after a recent dip from its daily high of $68,200. Analysts are closely watching this price point, as it could determine the direction of the market in the coming days.
Support and Resistance Levels in Focus
If the bulls fail to defend $66,600, the next potential support level sits at $65,100. A breach of this level could trigger a further decline towards $61,000 , a more significant support zone. However, if the selling pressure intensifies and $61,000 crumbles, a drop to the bottom support at $50,800 becomes a possibility.
On the flip side, a decisive break above $68,000 could signal a return to bullish momentum. The first target for the bulls would likely be the daily resistance area of $70,200.
"This is a make-or-break moment for Bitcoin." A sentiment is that a hold above $68,000 is crucial to maintain positive momentum. Conversely, a drop below this level could trigger a cascade of sell orders, pushing the price lower.
The recent price volatility in Bitcoin is attributed to a confluence of factors, including:
Profit-taking : After a strong rally in recent weeks, some investors may be looking to cash in on their gains.
Macroeconomic jitters : Rising interest rates and ongoing geopolitical tensions are creating uncertainty in the broader financial markets, which can also impact cryptocurrency prices.
Regulation : Regulatory scrutiny from governments around the world continues to be a headwind for the cryptocurrency market.
Looking Ahead
The next few days will be crucial for Bitcoin. If the bulls can hold the line at $66,600 and push the price higher, it could signal a continuation of the uptrend. However, a breakdown below this level could lead to a more significant correction. Investors are advised to closely monitor price action and key support and resistance levels as the situation unfolds.
Stellar and Compound Breakout OpportunitiesAs you can see on the weekly charts, both XLM and COMP have formed inclining breakout patterns. If the current bitcoin support holds, this could be an opportunity for smaller coins to make massive runs, and these two coins are some of my favorites. They are far off from all-time highs, but the bearish trend has stopped for both and they seem to be emerging into a strong uptrend. I have indicated potential targets on the charts as well. Good luck!
FED has to lower Rates or face Emergency QE.(Not a game)
Jerome Powell lied to say he raised rates due to "Inflation", this was a great cover however he clearly saw the USDJPY crisis coming like I saw from last year.
(Inverted Charts)
The DXY Rising + the USDJPY rising will unwind the carry trade that will sell off the majority of people holding US bonds via Japan. This will force the FED to initiate YCC locally.
Japan CANNOT keep rates low at this point or they will enter the no way out hyperinflation by 2025.
America CANNOT rise rates increasing the USDJPY past the point of no return (currently at 160) Yes we are at 151 and the complete fail point is 160.
Everyone has been expecting a recession, where is it?
Everyone is expecting a rate hike, will the FED do it?
Path 1 -- FED Hike or Hold, USDJPY falls below the point of no return, Japan is now forced to try raise rates while restarting YCC + Stimulus (at this point the Yen is now a failed currency and it could lead to mass political instability that causes a carry trade sell off)
Path 2 -- FED lowers rate's, USDJPY starts to revert pressure on the Japanese currency (at this point the FED is now taking the hit of debasement to try stabilize Japan).
Our financial system has been sick since the gold depeg, it has gotten sicker after 2009, 2020 has put us into critical times. I wish this was real but we are at the end of the MMT cycle. The US is forced into a corner to not raise rates to deal with risk markets rising while DEBT interest + US Gov to DEBT ratio make's raising rates unaffordable.
Japan after WW2 has become the YCC hub for America and rightfully so it worked due to the innovation that came out of Japan that brought them enough wealth to forget this policy.
This is the part where if Jerome Powell say's the wrong thing today, it could be time to exit majority of capital from the legacy system for future protection.
Capital Controls? Communism? Banking Limits? Spot Bitcoin ETF limitations? Executive Order 6102? I'm genuinely concerned that majority of people want rate hikes that will destabilize the entire world due to debt and cause a communist style global financial shutdown to contain the disaster.
What a failed monetary policy era we live in.
BTC - Institutional Accumulation Zone Signals Trend ReversalThe Bitcoin futures market is showing signs of a potential reversal short-term bearish impulse, with institutional traders accumulating positions in a newly identified accumulation zone. This zone, marked on the chart, represents an area where large buyers have been actively buying BTC futures contracts.
The accumulation zone has been formed after a period of consolidation and sideways trading, following a sharp downtrend. The fact that institutional traders are accumulating in this zone suggests that they believe the downtrend is coming to an end and that a new uptrend is about to begin.
Furthermore, we should observe a key resistance level marked on chart, which can adds further credence to the bullish outlook. This breakout would signal that the sellers have been exhausted and that the buyers are now in control.
If the price action can continue to trade above the resistance level, it will be a strong indication that the downtrend has ended and that a new uptrend is underway. Traders should watch for a retest of the resistance level as a potential buying opportunity.
Bitcoin Can Be Making A Higher Degree CorrectionBitcoin with ticker BTCUSD is coming down out of the wedge pattern and it looks to have a completed wave (5) of 3, so we should be aware of deeper, higher degree (A)-(B)-(C) corrective setback within wave 4. It can actually retrace the price back to 64k - 59k support zone before we will see a bullish continuation for wave 5 of III.