Bitcoin-gold
AMD About To Go For 300% Blowoff Before Multi Year CorrectionAMD looks like it still has a lot more steam left. More so than NVIDIA. If I was holding NVIDIA I would sell and put it into AMD probably now.
I see a move up into the $600 range, hard telling what a top would be but that rising channel resistance will probably hold. Once rejected off that resistance itll be a slow and steady decline back down to double digits. The stock market and the overvalued stocks will slowly bleed out into Bitcoin and the Crypto market over these next ten years. A lot of these stocks are waaaayyy overvalued. Like stupidly overvalued. Its a bubble about to blow.
None of this is financial advice its just my opinion. Thank you
BTC may continue to reach JesusSo let's try to think about thinks objectively
Btc is an asset that has A lot of hype behind it
I don't know about you but other than being a trader, I haven't heard (non traders) talking about btc that much in the last few weeks
You know what I'm talking about right? Like when your friends on facebook who don't know ish about trading but because they see everyone talking about "investing" in something they now want to jump on the bandwagon? Yeah those people. I haven't heard a lot of those people talking about btc.
The reason why I say this is simple. I believe it was Warren Buffet who said this > "invest when others are afraid and be afraid when others want to invest". In other words, now is the time for more buys in my opinion.
This doesn't mean take out a second mortgage on your home btw Karen, this means scale into a buy if you agree with me in a way that allows you to invest money that you are okay investing. You should never invest money you aren't willing to lose.
Also keep in mind the fact that if we look at what is going on on the chart itself, Btc is very near to the previous ATH (all time high). Dropping it now wouldn't make sense for the whales, because think of how many other people are expecting Btc to dump at this price point.
The more people interested in a particular direction, the less likely it is for price to go in that direction because the "prize money" needs to be split up amongst a bigger pool of traders.
Selling here would mean a lot of people who are looking at BTC at this point would make A LOT of money. Do you really think the whales want that? No of course not.
Sorry for my long rant but this is how I look at it. Personally Right now I actively hold some btc and it's up quite a bit. I currently have no intention on getting rid of it just yet.
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Weekly Momentum On Major Pairs (Week 10/2024)First Thing First: This analysis is for “general overview only” as it is solely based on price action. That’s why it is called momentum analysis in the first place. Support/Resistant, Volume Macro view nor any other factors are not used during write up. Refer to the individual pair analysis for a more comprehensive write up.
XXX/USD: MIxed
Gold & Silver: Bullish
XXX/JPY: Neutral
Stock Indexes: Slightly Bullish
BitCoin/ETH: Very Bullish
Week 10 (03/03/2024)
US30 - Perfect Zigzag Pattern ZIGZAG Pattern is made up of 3 waves were Wave A has 5 impulse waves, Wave B has 3 corrective waves, and Wave C has 5 waves. Our main focus is riding Wave C once wave B finishes its retracements to fibonacci levels. Ideally, Wave A = Wave C. This means if Wave A made 20% move, Wave C should do the same.
BTC/XAU (Bitcoin VS Gold) #BTC #GOLDThe chart is an effort to plot Bitcoin and Gold in a ratio to figure out potentially where we are.
The upper band (red) is where it becomes quite risky to hold bitcoin instead of gold.
Mind you this does not mean gold will give better returns but means if Bitcoin goes through a correction, Gold will likely hold stronger.
The green band is where Bitcoin becomes extremely less risky with a huge risk to reward ratio. Having said that, hoping that we will come touch green band is not always a good strategy as it has been proven it might reverse before touching green.
Another level to add to some Bitcoin to your position instead of Gold has been 200 Week Moving Average (200WMA) represented as blue line.
Historically it has been a good level to add Bitcoin instead of Gold. Although it is not a perfect indicator as well but it definitely makes considering Bitcoin vs Gold a little easier as it is a massive support.
As of now, we are not there yet but further downwards price action will take us there.
We can certainly come down and touch green band where it becomes a no brainer for me to allocate my capital to bitcoin instead of gold.
I do also notice the MACD is deeply red and quite oversold. A weekly candle showing reversal could be a good indication of trend reversal while still expecting some choppy price action.
Note: Green and Red bands are not drawn using logarithmic curves but rather connecting the closing price and trying to connect as many as points as possible. I am aware I might not have touched all points but this model is just a visual comparison of trend rather than targeting exact entry or exit points.
What do you think will play out? Tell me in the comments.
Weekly Momentum On Major Pairs (Week 4/2024)
First Thing First: This analysis is for “general overview only” as it is solely based on price action. That’s why it is called momentum analysis in the first place. Support/Resistant, Volume Macro view nor any other factors are not used during write up. Refer to the individual pair analysis for a more comprehensive write up.
XXX/USD: Mixed
Gold & Silver: Mixed
XXX/JPY: Slightly Bearish
Stock Indexes: Mixed
BitCoin/ETH: Mixed
Week 4 (27/1/2024)
SOLANA|Trading positions in a BEARISH trendHi guys, I hope you had a profitable trading week.
We have an overview of Solana in 4 hours time.
In continuation of the previous analysis we had of Solana, which went exactly as we expected, now we want to have an update on it, to know what process it has taken.
The last trend of Solana has come in the form of a descending channel, which has reacted well to the up and down of the channel, and has taken its own downward course.
On the 4H time frame, we have a supply zone that we saw two good breakouts from.
The upcoming demand area is the price (85-86.5), which we should keep in mind when the price reaches this area, we can enter buying positions with confirmation.
If this area breaks, we can witness further fall to the area of 72.26
BTC vs VirtualGold- Did you ever notice that BTC and PaxGold/BTC have a perpetual inverted correlation ?
- All Pax Gold tokens are backed 1:1 by ounces of London Good Delivery bars held in Brink's vaults.
- Allocated gold-backed PAX Gold tokens are protected both in the vault facilities and in transit. Availability of FDIC Insurance for Stablecoin Reserves.
- PaxGold acts as store of value when BTC dip.
- Some Whales don't like to switch their BTC to stable coins.
- So they just turn on PaxGold when BTC crash.
- This also can be a good alternative if you don't use too heavy Leverage.
- Keep 50% in BTC.
- Keep 50% in PaxGold.
- if you are fast enough, you could find a way to make some bucks.
PS : Don't forget that this analyze is 100% paired with BTC.
Happy Tr4Ding !
$DXY trying to base daily but weekly shows ominous signThe US #Dollar is trying to base on the daily charts, again.
Not making calls until we feel sure, many times we're posting just to show what we see. We've mentioned many times that calls are CLEAR when they are made.
Breaking under doesn't mean impending doom, look at June how it came back.
However, that is NOT the norm!
Usually a break turns that support level into staunch resistance, for some time as well.
Weekly, there's a BEARISH crossover.
TVC:DXY #GOLD #SILVER #Bitcoin
$DXY US Dollar looks primed again#GOLD & #SILVER are still selling off since we made the call, very close to top.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC is suffering its biggest drop since august of 2023.
The US #Dollar really looks like it settled at the 102 area.
Not a normal area to find support but it can happen.
TVC:DXY seems as if it wants to conceivably push higher from here.
AMEX:GLD AMEX:SLV CRYPTOCAP:BTC
Gold > Silver, $DXY done? $BTC best performer latelyGOOD MORNING
#GOLD is currently holding better than #Silver.
Has the US #Dollar run stopped or will it find support soon?
Out of all of these CRYPTOCAP:BTC has been the best recent performer, by a good amount.
Keep an eye on strength (RSI), it's still weakening as it goes higher.
However, $ flow has been increasing.
Digital gold up (BTC), spot gold down (XAU)Digital gold up (BTC), spot gold down (XAU)
Bitcoin, often referred to as digital gold, has surged again, extending above $43,000. The crypto has maintained its positive momentum for five consecutive days now, marking a 15% increase over this period. At present, the price hovers around $43,300, after pulling back from a recent high of $44,011.
From a technical perspective, bitcoin has surpassed the 50% level between its 2021 all-time high of $69,000 and 2022 low of $18,000 (at $42,240). Sustaining this position above the midpoint strengthens the bullish case and helps the prevailing sentiment that the upward trajectory will likely persist.
Over in “real” gold; the commodity has faced a significant retreat from its all-time highs, witnessing a drop of over $100. Despite some technical indicators signaling oversold conditions, gold's struggle to stage a convincing rebound due to the renewed strength of the US dollar. A break below the $2010 level could intensify bearish pressure, exposing $2,000, $1,995 and $1,985.
❤️ USDJPY - More Fall ? Let's See ! (READ THE CAPTION)By checking the USDJPY chart, we can see that the price after the attractive fall to 147.150 was able to make upward movements again to fill a part of the liquidity void caused by this fall by collecting liquidity! If the price can stabilize below 150.110, we will probably see a further drop in the price! The most important signal for the price to fall further is breaking the level of 147.180 and stabilizing below this range!
Please share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me and support us with your likes and comments.
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Xau/UsdHello traders!
Yesterday, the couple made a buy move because the US inflation came out less than it was thought to come out. The pivot (1975.00). If the price manages to break the level (1975.00), then we will have a buy movement at the levels (1988.00); (1995.00) ; (2002.00). My opinion is that the pair will keep the bullish movement.
Wait to enter the trade! Be careful!
Don`t forget to look at the economic calendar!
MAKE MONEY AND ENJOY LIFE 💰
THANK YOU!
GOOD LUCK!
🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻
A Traders’ Weekly Playbook – Buy what’s strong sell what’s weak After a more subdued week on the event risk front, the week ahead refocuses traders’ attention on global growth dynamics, with China, Europe, and the US in the spotlight. The US CPI print is the marquee data point, but it will take a big upside surprise (vs consensus expectations) to bring the December or January FOMC meeting to a ‘live’ status, and interest rates traders will likely be trading expectations for 2H24 rate cuts over near-term.
The USD has found a modest bid of late and tests the 106-handle, with EURUSD gravitating towards 1.0600 and USDJPY into 151.50. While we have seen some pockets of movement in FX, realised volatility (1-week) is super low, and we see nearly all pairs at or below the 10th percentile of the 12-month range. The RSIs are all around the 50 level, which speaks to a lack of trending conditions and our trading conditions. A cheeky MoF JPY-intervention would shake things up, but buying JPY solely for this idea is for the special situation trader.
US real rates are pushing higher once again and worth putting on the radar and with the geopolitical risk premium being priced out of gold, we could easily see gold re-establish its typically high correlation with bond market dynamics. A simple look at the higher timeframes shows the sellers firmly in control here, with price testing the 38.2 fibo of the October-November rally – a break of 1933 should see 1910/00 come into play.
Platinum and palladium can be put on the radar too, as neither can find a friend in this market and while grossly oversold, should find sellers into strength.
Our equity index flow is still quite lively, and clearly, the NAS100 is where the fast money is right now, and traders are buying what’s working and is hot and selling what’s not working – momentum is therefore the strategy du jour. This is true of the crypto space too. Long NAS100/short US2000 is another expression if one is to play a lower beta strategy or long NAS100/short China another, but with China’s growth and credit data in play this week that trade has risk, as Chinese authorities will not want equity bourses to break YTD lows.
We also see Alibaba and Tencent reporting quarterly numbers this week, so the HK50 could get lively this week.
Friday's outlook downgrade by Moody’s has certainly caught a bit of attention. No one in the market is too shocked by this and the rationale for the outlook change to negative is for reasons that have been well discussed. Still, this is the fourth ratings action this year by a ratings agency and the odds are we can expect the rating to be cut at some stage, marking the point where the US has lost its AAA status by all 3 agencies. It is not a market-moving story and semantics are at play. One can expect the Republicans to leverage this in the elections next year and while immigration (border security), abortion/women’s rights, and the economy are key voting determinants, the government’s fiscal position is certainly a factor that is starting to become a mainstream factor too.
The marquee event risks of the week
• US govt shutdown – the deadline for Congress to avoid a govt shutdown is the 17 Nov. This will likely get front-page news as it further speaks to a dysfunctional Congress but shouldn’t be a major catalyst for cross-market volatility. It does look like the wheels are in motion for a short-term solution, with Speaker Johnson presented a temporary and staggered funding plan that would see some govt agencies funded through January, and others to February.
• China credit data (no set date this week – anytime) – China’s new yuan loans & M2 money supply could influence sentiment, with the consensus expecting a sizeable fall in new loans in October at RMB655b (from RMB2310b in Sept). Below consensus loan data could see sellers in Chinese/HK equity markets, with the CHINAH index looking to revisit the October lows around 5800.
• UK jobless claims and wages report (14 Nov 08:00 AEDT) – UK wages are expected to fall a tick to 7.7%. Any number on wages below 7.7% would see the GBP spike lower.
• EU Q3 GDP (14 Nov 21:00 AEDT) – after a number of weak data reports from the Eurozone of late, we get EU Q3 GDP which is expected to come in at -0.1% QoQ and +0.1% yoy. EURGBP is worth putting on the radar, with price threatening to start bull trending and a move through 0.8760 would see momentum tick up and raise the probability of a stronger move to 0.8900.
• Aus Q3 Wage Price Index (15 Nov 11:30 AEDT) – The economists’ consensus is for wages to increase 1.3% QoQ / 3.9% yoy (from 3.6%). With a 6% chance of a hike in the December RBA meeting and a 32% probability priced for the February RBA meeting, a 4-handle on wages would see hike expectations rise once more.
• China monthly data releases (15 Nov 13:00 AEDT) – China Industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment are due with the market expecting some improvement across the range of growth data points, notably in retail sales which are eyed at +7% yoy (from 5.5% in Sept)
• US CPI (15 Nov 00:30 AEDT) – the key event risk of the week – the market expects headline inflation at 0.1% mom / 3.3% yoy, and core CPI at 0.3% mom / 4.1% yoy. Using core CPI month-on-month as a guide, a print below 0.2% mom would likely see USD sellers and fuel further gains in the NAS100. A rise above 0.35% mom would see USD buyers and possibly weigh on gold and equities.
• UK CPI (15 Nov 18:00 AEDT) – the consensus is for headline CPI to come in at 4.7% yoy (from 6.7%) / core CPI 5.8% (from 6.1%). Providing we don't see a strong upside surprise, the further moderation in inflation justifies the rates pricing, with no hikes priced in Q224, and the door open for cuts from June 24. Comments from BoE member Haskel after the UK CPI print could be interesting for GBP traders.
• US retail sales (16 Nov 00:30 AEDT) – the consensus is for a decline of 0.3% mom, driven by weaker new vehicle and gasoline sales. Importantly, the ‘control group’ element – the group of goods that feeds more directly into the GDP calculation - is expected to rise 0.2%. The outcome of this data point could see growth nowcast models being revised higher or lower, with Q4 GDP estimates currently running around 2%.
• Aussie jobs report (16 Nov 11:30 AEDT) – The consensus is for 25K jobs created and the U/E rate at 3.7% (unchanged). Coming after the Q3 WPI the outcome of the jobs report could further impact expectations for a hike in February or March, and by extension cause a short-term move in the AUD.
Corporate earnings of note
• US corp earnings – US retailers report this week and could offer guidance and insights into margins and the US consumer – Home Depot (14 Nov – after-market), Target (15 Nov - after-market) and Walmart (16 Nov - 23:00 AEDT) get the focus.
• HK Corp earnings – Tencent (15 Nov) and Alibaba (16 Nov) report quarterly earnings.
• ASX200 – ANZ FY23 earnings (13 Nov)
Central bank speakers
• RBA – Kohler speaks (13 Nov 10:30 AEDT)
• Fed – There are 22 scheduled Fed speakers this week. Those speaking after the US CPI print would be more insightful.
• ECB - There are 17 different scheduled ECB speakers this week – see the schedule below
• BoE – we hear from BoE members Breeden, Mann, Dhingra, Huw Pill, Haskel, Ramsden and Greene
💎 EUR/USD : The Price Will Fall ? (READ THE CAPTION)By checking this chart in the 4-hour time frame, we can see that the price is in an important supply range and the possibility of further correction beyond this range is high! The two important price ranges for the SELL position are 1.065 to 1.063 and 1.06970 to 1.07370 respectively! The appealing range for the BUY position is from 1.045 to 1.049 ! This analysis will be updated!
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Eur/UsdHello traders!
If the price breaks the neckline, then there is a movement at the level (1.0790). But be careful! A movement occurs if the price breaks the level (1.0450) for a discount to the level (1.0320).
Wait to enter the trade! Be careful!
Don`t forget to look at the economic calendar!
MAKE MONEY AND ENJOY LIFE 💰
THANK YOU!
GOOD LUCK!
🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻
Observations on Market Trends and Financial ChangesUnraveling the Revolution:
In the fast-paced world of financial markets and investments, the images attached to each company stock, bitcoin, and gold paint a compelling picture of soaring portfolio increases, ranging from 20% to a staggering 250% profit since January 2023, up to this point in August 2023. Amidst these fluctuations, recent developments, such as the GBP's interest rate hike, have prompted intriguing market reactions.
Yesterday, as the GBP's interest rate rose by 25 basis points, the initial response was a momentary decline in its value against other currencies. However, to our surprise, a strong momentum swiftly pushed the pound upwards. Similar patterns were observed with the Euro, Bitcoin, and gold, all gaining ground against the US dollar. This display of strength signifies a shift in financial dynamics, with blockchain technologies, cryptocurrencies, AI, and the changing human behavior and understanding collectively working to challenge the once dominant US dollar, which had replaced the gold standard.
As we navigate the current landscape, high-raising inflation has exposed vulnerabilities in our financial and psychological systems. We often place blame on external factors for the high cost of living, but it is crucial to recognize that our very own system is undergoing significant changes.
Amidst these revolutionary shifts, market trends have led to doubled prices for tech companies, gold, oil, and even currency pairs like GBPUSD showing short-term potential at 1.4 and 1.6. Remarkably, Bitcoin's value is projected to soar to a high of 40k, and perhaps even reach an astonishing 80k, with a visionary projection of 345k.
Let it be noted that these observations serve as insights rather than financial advice for trading. For informed decisions, seeking guidance from financial experts and market analysts is advisable. These transformative times call for careful navigation, where knowledge and understanding play key roles in making strategic choices.
In conclusion, the financial world is witnessing a revolution, with unprecedented changes reshaping market trends and dynamics. As we move forward, adaptability and informed decisions will be vital for those seeking to ride the waves of this transformative era.
Disclaimer: The information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always consult with a qualified professional for personalized guidance and market predictions.
Yet another SUSPICIOUS Bitcoin SignalHere's another red flag on the short-term bullish Bitcoin trade following up on yesterday's post. Today we get a dip signal suggestion weakness to come.
So with the dollar down, we see SPY up, QQQ up, Gold up, Oil up -- but Bitcoin down? That's, as the kids these days would say, is suss.