Parabolic Market Structure BROKEN ($20,000 HAS to hold) BTCHello all traders & investors of the crypto currency world, I hope you're all doing incredibly well.
First off, I'm sorry for not posting over the last several months as I've been focused on my own personal trading and had to stay in my own universe while figuring out a long term trading strategy.
Second off, please avoid leverage any higher than 2x. The gains may look VERY satisfying but in reality it creates a degenerate mindset and leads to oversizing the account as greed gets higher and higher in terms of your own personal psychological experiences. If you want to end up buying a lambo, or a massive house one day, or anything you want just get away from leverage. Why am i saying this? Here's a short story, ever since December 2020 I've been able to 4-7x a trading account usually within a week. As this happened and the greed started taking over, I'd increase leverage after a massive move one direction and end up losing 99.9% of the account due to over leverage which allowed me to use size that ultimately lead to blowing the accounts up one way or anther.
How long did that last?
December 2020 - May 2021 (6 months)
I went 6 months doing this over and over before finally realizing the next stage of my learning curve was risk management. You can be the most skilled technical analysis nerd in the entire space and be an AWFUL trader if you can't manage to keep your winnings after going on a 5-25 winning streak and letting ONE single trade take away ALL your hard work due to a few simple errors: 1) Over-leverage, I suggest using 1-2x if you're serious about being a long term trader and making millions one day. 2) Over-sizing, as you grow accounts the goal should be to maintain the same risk based on your account size, not increase it. So 2x leverage in my opinion will be the highest leverage used for the rest of my career as a trader. 3) Both of the previous things listed results in GREED, which causes EMOTIONAL trading, which causes your TRADING RULES to be nonexistent because you're so focused on making as much money in a short period of time due to the over leverage (this makes you think you can get rich with less money, when really this results in a liquidation email in the VERY near future.
I started trading just after the March 2020 crash, and have just finished my first year as a trader.
My second and third year will be about small wins, 2x leverage max, and trading logically and sticking to the game plan.
BITCOIN TALK: Is the bull run over?
NO, as long as $20,000 holds (quick dips below don't count) then in my eyes this bull run isn't over and this current macro pattern could be one massive pennant and break to the upside. OR it breaks and we have officially entered a bear market.
$30,000 holding would result in at least $50,000-$55,000 being retested for the possible 3rd validation point on the downtrend (we currently have 2) and a 3rd would make the trend stronger and likely result in a macro sell-off, BUT if it breaks to the upside then we head to $82,000-$100,000+ over the next 12 months.
The last bull run was 2017-2018 and the halving was in 2016. IF things played out to be similar to the last one we're only one year into the cycle and still have around 9-12 months before we top out and likely see a blow off top $100,000+.
Bottom line is this my friend, above $20,000 is a bull market and below is a confirmed bear market. Why? It's the 2017-2018 ATH which means it's now the macro support or s/r (support/resistance) zone.
