Bitcoin-short
Bitcoin fractal downtrend comparison and demand drop! (Part 1)As in every market bitcoin price changes come from supply and demand. The supply changes slowly relative to the daily fluctuations in the price so we can consider the supply relatively constant on daily trading timeframe. Most of the demand comes from speculation. Therefore, by tracking the public interest changes we can relate it to the price movement. The best way I found for doing that is by checking the traffic on binance and coinbase with alexa website.
Looking at the Alexa rank 90 day trend, we can see that the interest has already peaked a few weeks ago as the price was around 13k - 14k. Since then, there is almost linear downtrend in the Alexa rank. Considering that as a short signal and that the top of this move is 14k, the second part of the analysis comes in.
We can think of the bitcoin price movements as mass psychology reflection of fear and greed. Therefore, fractal relationships between uptrends as well as downtrends might exist reflecting the repeating patterns of buying and selling from mass psychology. In this Part 1 and the next Part 2, I will show more evidence of this fractal relationship between the last downtrend from 20k to 3.5k and the current one from 14k.
The yellow ellipse represent the bull trap and in both cases it reaches similar retracement percentages (around 65%). The blue ellipse is where I think we are currently at. If this fractal relationship continues we should see a sharp drop in the coming days to 8k, followed by a move up to around 9.5k, then followed by a sharp move down to around 6k.
Of course, there are no guarantees for that and the short position target will be updated as more information becomes available but for now first target is 8k.
For more information on how to get a free trial of my fund, feel free to message me.
For the next two months, I will be posting free trading ideas in crypto, stocks and commodities.
Like and follow me for the next Part 2 tomorrow when I am going to dive in the fractal relationship between the two downtrends.
BITCOIN - COLLAPSE INCOMING!Look, with all these positiveness over the price of Bitcoin, I tend to think that this BTC is going to be dumped so so hard.
Unless the 14k high is broken, I am expecting ABC correction with 3 major downside targets.
First = 4.4k
Second = 1.5k
Third = 1k !!!
Let me know your thours and sentiment on BTC price in the next couple of years!
BTC GOING BELOW $10,000? POSSIBLE RETRACEMENT TO THOSE LEVELSIt is looking more likely that BTC will go back down to that 10K region again and test the area of 382 on the fib...
I'd be careful. Currently held on the pivot point as support. It is also a weekend. Tomorrow is a key day on the opening of the stock market too...
Can BTC repeat June 26th high? MACD & RSI may prove it.If we take a look at the last two bull runs of June 26th and July 9th , the MACD and RSI have similarities to todays bull run. Sure, RSI is over bought but this was the same case as the June 26th bullrun. As you can see the MACD resembles the MACD as of now on the 4HR chart, which means it could push further upward. The RSI peaked at 92 on June 22nd, came down to 67 on June 23rd than resumed upward to a peak of 93 when Bitcoin hit a high of $13,800.
The Differences and Concerns
Todays bullrun has a steeper MACD cross, as well as the sell off is steeper than the July 9th sell before peaking. The same can be said about the June 22nd selling. It was minimal but continued upward shortly after. When comparing the last two peaks, it seems that it reached the peak shortly after a sell off. This case, the sell off is deeper and peak curve downward is steepening.
Next, if we look at the Histogram, it may point that the sell off has just begun. There are almost no points that show the histogram turning bullish again after a peak. After every peak, the histogram went down. Both of these point towards a deeper sell off, but anything can happen.
Back Above Daily KamaThe market is still flat although the bitcoin has managed to return above the Kama average in a position of strength after several weeks below it.
A break above the resistance zone (above 12200$) would confirm the recovery of the trend.
From tomorrow i'm on holiday, see you in September, there will be updates only in case of emergencies:)