#202502 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: 91000 - 100000 is still the range and the low held. Bears need a daily close below 91000 for more downside but until then, we are range-bound. Upside max should be 100k. We have been in this range for two months now, I won’t over analyze it. I have given my longer-term opinion in my year-end special and I stick to that until clearly invalid.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 90k - 110k
bull case: Bulls have going for them that they kept it above 90k again. Until we have a daily close below it, they are inside the range and at the lows the r:r favors them to trade back up again. 96k is the next target for them if they want more upside to 100k.
Invalidation is below 90k.
bear case: Bears failing at 90k again. Sad stuff but that’s the reality for now. Above 96k they will likely step aside until 100k, where I expect market to make another lower high and we continue in this descending triangle until we get a bigger impulse again.
Invalidation is above 103k.
short term: Neutral. Bearish below 90k and only slightly bullish above 96k for 100k. Will scale into swing shorts near 100k again.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-29: 75000 is my biggest target for now and until bears get there, any lower target is just unreasonable. My bias is bearish going into 2025 and I think the odds of a bigger leg down are good.
current swing trade: Took most off my swing short around 92000 and will add higher again.
chart update: Added bear trend line and head & shoulders pattern.
Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)
Hmstr/UsdtBINANCE:HMSTRUSDT
### Current Price: 0.003018
The price is at **0.003018**, and it's approaching a resistance level here. The market seems like it's testing this level, and it could either break through or fail to hold.
### Resistance Levels 🔴
If the price breaks through 0.003018, here are the resistance levels to watch for potential upward movement:
- **0.003203**
- **0.003324**
- **0.003533**
### Support Levels 🟢
If the price doesn't hold and drops, here are key support levels where it might find buying interest and reverse:
- **0.002834**
- **0.002533**
### Long Position Explanation 📈
A **long position** means you're betting that the price will go higher. Here's how you can approach it:
- **Entry Point** 📍: Consider entering at or near 0.003018 if you see signs of a breakout (for example, higher volume or strong buying pressure). This level is critical, as it's the resistance. If the price breaks above, it could move to the next levels (0.003203, 0.003324, 0.003533).
- **Target** 🎯: Your targets for a long trade could be the next resistance levels—0.003203, 0.003324, or 0.003533. If the price moves upwards and breaks each level, your position could be profitable.
- **Stop Loss** 🚫: If the price falls below the first support at 0.002834, you may want to cut your losses. A stop loss below this level will help protect your capital in case the price drops significantly.
### Summary 🏁
- **Breakout above 0.003018** 📈 could lead to targets around 0.003203, 0.003324, and 0.003533.
- **Failure to break above** 0.003018 🛑 might lead the price to test support at 0.002834 or 0.002533.
Always manage your risk and trade carefully! 🚀
Disclaimer : Not Financial Advice
EURAUD - Start 2025 with a BIG Win!EURAUD has given us a fantastic opportunity to get in at the very start of a BIG move.
We are currently in an ABC correction. We'e completed waves A and B and now currently in wave C. We're expecting 5 waves from wave C and looks as if we've completed wave 1 and currently in wave 2. We're looking to catch the rest of the move on the break of the trendline.
Trade Idea:
- Safe entry on break of trendline
- Riskier entry within the fibs or anywhere below invalidation
- stops above invalidation
- Targets: 1.6 (700pips), 1.156 (1100pips)
- Taper as we move lower
What do you guys think?
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
BITCOIN - Price can little correct and then continue growHi guys, this is my overview for BTCUSDT, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some days ago, the price rose to resistance line and then turned around and dropped to support line, which started to grow.
Then BTC rose to almost to resistance level, after which made a correction to support line and then continued to rise.
Soon, BTC broke $102000 level and reached resistance line, after which price turned around and made downward impulse.
Price broke $102000 level with support line and started to trades inside flat, where it reached $92600 level.
BTC some time traded inside this level, and later price bounced and reached resistance level.
Recently it fell to support level and then started to grow, so, I think it little correct and then continue to grow to $99900
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Bitcoin can exit from pennant and rise to 97300 resistance levelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. Looking at the chart, we can see how the price some days ago started to trade inside the upward channel, where it at once rebounded from the buyer zone and rose a little. After this, it corrected to the support level and then in a short time rose to the resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone, but when it reached this level, BTC at once made a small correction. Next, the price finally broke this level and rose to the channel's resistance line, after which it made a correction and some time traded inside the seller zone. Later, the price made an upward impulse, exiting from the upward channel and when it reached 102K points, BTC turned around and started to decline inside the downward pennant. In this pattern, the price dropped to the support line of the pennant, breaking the 97300 and 93300 levels, after which it started to grow. Recently, Bitcoin reached the resistance line of the pennant pattern, breaking the 93300 level. So, given the current market conditions, I expect that BTC can exit from the pennant and then make a correction to the support level. After this movement, the price can start to move up to the 97300 resistance level. For this case, I set my TP at this level. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Update: Peaking Phase in FocusIn our previous analysis, we projected a bullish trend for the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), forecasting its strength to persist until it reached a critical "Area of Interest" (highlighted in pink on the chart). This area corresponds to a significant resistance zone near the 109.6–110.0 level, as marked on the chart.
Current Observations:
- The DXY has now entered the projected "peaking phase," as shown by its approach to the identified resistance zone.
- Momentum indicators, such as the RSI, suggest overbought conditions near this level, reinforcing the likelihood of a reversal.
- The chart highlights a series of ascending waves culminating in the current peak, aligning with the earlier analysis of the bullish phase ending by early 2025.
What’s Next?
- A bearish reversal is anticipated, with the DXY likely retracing to lower support levels. Key targets for the downturn are:
- The 100.00 psychological level, which also aligns with a structural support zone.
- The 97.8 level, representing a major support from previous price action.
- The longer-term downtrend trendline remains intact, suggesting the DXY could experience sustained weakness throughout 2025.
Implications for Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies:
As noted earlier, a weakening U.S. dollar often correlates with upward momentum in dollar-denominated assets, including Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. If the DXY confirms its reversal, we could see a bullish breakout in Bitcoin beginning around Q1–Q2 2025, as the market prices in dollar devaluation.
Conclusion:
Investors should monitor the DXY's behavior closely within the "Area of Interest." Confirmation of a bearish reversal could trigger significant market shifts across various asset classes. Stay vigilant for further updates as the DXY's trajectory unfolds.
Get ready for ALT-SEASON!We got confirmation on breaking uptrend channel downwards in last few weeks and we all know what that means. More CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D goes down better for alt-coins. 47-51% is the range I am looking for. There are few alt-coins haven't made major moves in last year, I will post about it soon. Keep posted!
ADA on high time frame
"Regarding ADA on the high timeframe, the chart indicates that recent candle formations and analysis suggest that the price has swept liquidity and is poised for an upward movement. Depending on your strategy as a holder or trader, consider buying in anticipation of higher prices."
ARWEAVE ($AR) Chart Analysis : A massive Weekly Bull FlagA massive Weekly Bull Flag, characterized by a strong initial rally followed by a consolidation phase within parallel downward-sloping trendlines.
Bull Flag Breakdown
1. Flagpole:
The sharp rally preceding the consolidation forms the "flagpole." This demonstrates strong bullish momentum.
2. Consolidation (Flag):
The price appears to be consolidating within the parallel downward-sloping channel. This often signals a pause in the market rather than a reversal.
Consolidation within a previous support zone (as highlighted in the green area) strengthens the bullish case.
3. Volume:
Ideally, in a bull flag, volume decreases during the consolidation and increases upon breakout. It’s worth monitoring this behavior.
4. Indicators:
The MACD looks to be flattening, suggesting that bearish momentum may be waning. A bullish crossover could confirm upward momentum.
The Stochastic RSI shows oversold conditions, which might indicate a potential reversal to the upside if confirmed by price action.
Targets Based on the Flag Structure
1. Breakout Target:
If this bull flag confirms with a breakout, the target is usually measured by adding the length of the flagpole to the breakout point.
The potential target could aim for the $40-$50 range, depending on where the breakout occurs.
2. Invalidation Level:
A breakdown below the support zone (~$13-$15) would invalidate the bull flag structure and could signal further downside.
Key Levels to Watch
1. Resistance:
The upper trendline of the channel is the key resistance. A breakout above it with strong volume would confirm the bull flag.
2. Support:
The lower trendline and the support zone (~$13-$15) need to hold for the bull flag structure to remain intact.
Potential Triggers
1. Macro Events:
Bull flags often play out during periods of improving market sentiment or bullish catalysts, watch for President Trumps inauguration on Jan 20, 2025.
2. Bitcoin’s Movement:
Arweave (AR) and altcoins tend to follow Bitcoin's price action. A Bitcoin rally could push AR out of consolidation.
Bitcoin Update: Head and Shoulders Pattern Points to $75kThe Head and Shoulders pattern has now formed on the one day chart, and Bitcoin is approaching the neckline. If we break below that neckline, we could see Bitcoin heading down to $75k.
At the same time, Bitcoin is also showing a bearish flag. If this flag breaks to the downside, we could see Bitcoin moving toward $81k as well.
My analysis over the past few weeks has pointed to a target range between $75k and $81k, so I’m keeping a close eye on these levels. Let’s see how things play out over the next few months.
I’ll keep you all updated with any changes. Stay tuned and watch the price action closely. 🚨📊
Like, share, and follow for more insights!
Bitcoin is gearing up to drop to $50-$55K.Bitcoin is gearing up to drop to $50-$55K:
Hey everyone!
As you’ve probably noticed, this week altcoins and meme markets have been falling aggressively, including names from Murad's list like $SPX.
➖ The broader market also shows signs of a downturn. If you check monthly charts for the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and other indices, they’re aligning for a drop.
➖ The catalyst could be anything—from the wildfires in California to a potential strike by Iran on Israel.
Take note of the prepared orders on Coinbase targeting $50-$55K.
➖ Binance’s BTC/USDT Liquidation Heatmap over the past 6 months (Model 3 from CoinGlass) also highlights liquidation interest in this area.
When you put all the pieces together, the odds favor a drop. Market makers would likely want to shake out recent buyers of altcoins, meme coins, etc., before any significant rally.
Avoid leverage or futures trading—it’s the easiest way to lose your deposit in this environment.
No Financial Advice, Do Your Own Research.