BTCUSDT: The ‘Parabolic Channel’ Play – $250 K to $500 K … then?⚙️ Chart Specs
Ticker / Pair: BTCUSDT
Time-Frame: 1W (log scale)
Indicators: Ichimoku Cloud (default), 7-year logarithmic channel, long-term trend-lines & Fib extensions
Date of publish: 17 May 2025
1️⃣ Macro Context
Bitcoin just printed a decisive weekly close above the mid-line of its 2017-2025 log channel while the Ichimoku Cloud has flipped full-bull (span A > span B). Post-2024 halving supply shock + macro liquidity rotation = strong tail-wind.
2️⃣ Projected Path
Phase Target zone % from breakout Key confluence
Break & sprint $255-270 K ~+140 % Vacuum above former ATH; minimal supply
Euphoria stretch $375 K ~+250 % Channel ceiling + 2.0 Fib
Blow-off wick $500-520 K ~+380 % 2.618 Fib extension + typical overshoot
Dashed white arrows on the chart sketch the base-case impulse and an optional “melt-up” extension.
3️⃣ Post-parabola Retrace
Historical cycles point to a -50 ~ -60 % draw-down once the upper red rail is tagged. I’m watching:
$255-250 K → first liquidity pocket / mid-channel
$215-210 K → 0.5 Fib retrace of the entire move
Either zone could reset weekly momentum while preserving the uptrend.
4️⃣ Invalidation Levels
Weekly close < $92 K → breakout failure → bias flips neutral, potential slide to red mid-line ~$75 K.
Close below channel base $60 K → macro thesis void, shift to bear bias.
5️⃣ Illustrative Trade Plan (not financial advice)
Leg Entry TP(s) Stop
Impulse swing Weekly close > $120 K $255 K / $375 K Weekly close < $92 K
Blow-off punt Break > $375 K on volume Trail toward $500 K 2-week trailing low
Retrace reload Bullish SFP at $255-210 K Ride next cycle Close < $200 K
📝 Take-aways
Base target sits in the $250 K region; exuberant extension eyes $500 K.
Expect aggressive mean reversion once the upper rail is hit.
Clear invalidations help keep emotions in check amid extreme volatility.
⚠️ This is an educational study,
Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)
BTCUSD - Support/Resistance LineAs seen on chart price has recovered this line previously seen as resistance and is now using it as support
This is extremely bullish for price as the resistance has essentially flipped to support
Great time to buy crypto as new ATHs for Bitcoin are about to come
Daily timeframe
Bitcoin, Higher Prices Or What? How Likely Are Markets To Crash?You cannot deny that the market can crash any day right? What to expect?
Should I be worried?
Last time I was feeling all good and all was well and then suddenly a flash crash showed up and my position was gone. I lost all of my money because of my stupidity of course, I couldn't blame the market because the market did not put the leverage on my position, it was all me, so what now; will it happen again?
You cannot get liquidated if you have less than 5X leverage on your position when the market goes sideways. The squeezes, shakeouts and swings normally take out positions with 10X or more.
You cannot get liquidated if you are LONG but buy when prices are low, near support.
You can get liquidated if you are buying when prices start to rise without a plan on an impulse. The market is shaking just for you.
You will definitely get liquidated if you are trading continually with 20X. There is an entire set of experts, professionals and programs buying and selling just to distract you and when you get distracted BOOM!, out of nowhere money forever gone, namaste.
» Bitcoin
It is the same dynamic all over again, resistance turns support.
I will reveal the technicals for you and you decide what to believe and what to do but my reasoning is supported by data, facts. It is not wishful thinking or random choosing. It is true the market can move in any way but you have to go with the side that has a high probability of success. If you do this often enough, you win in the end.
When the market was going down, every time there was a stop the next move would be a continuation of the main direction, the trend.
When the market is going up, every time there is a stop the next move will be a continuation is simple.
The question is this; is the market rising or falling?
The market has been rising for more than a month. Yes, it is meeting resistance but this resistance has already been challenged several times in the past. Bitcoin moving back to it after a strong correction means the decision point. If we didn't know about the fundamentals, the change in the regulatory landscape and the Altcoins, I don't know, I would say things look mixed at the most, but knowing about all these other factors I can say with confidence that Bitcoin will continue to grow. Don't get me wrong, there can be consolidation for a few more days and even more swings to remove some of those over-leveraged trades; the next major move is up and a new All-Time High.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
Is this how I should outperform bitcoin? $PEPE-trending channel
-log scale (weekly candles)
-PEPE was first listed April 2023, this will be its first bull
-this is bitcoins world and we're just living in it, when it climbs, this upside is available to be captured
-price rising up its upper channel gets you 1000% (a reasonable target) (much higher upside probable)
-blue box is dated until last week Dec 2025
Is this a trade you'd be willing to take modern man?
BTCUSD Can it do this one more time?Bitcoin / BTCUSD is on a strong 1week MA50 rebound, while staying inside the Channel Up from the Cycle bottom and holding the 1week RSI Support.
Last time it did that was during the 2015-2017 Bull Cycle.
In fact it was May 2017 when the price started rising aggressively and eventually broke above the Channel Up into a relentless parabolic rally until the end of the year.
With the Cycle seemingly identical, do you think Bitcoin can do this one more time?
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
ETHBTC Is it repeating its first Cycle?I know that the timeframes are not the same but don't tell me that the structure between then and now isn't similar.
The biggest difference is that in 2016 ETHBTC made a deeper low than now, but the current rebound is showing signs that we might have a similar parabolic rise.
Now will that be enough to give a new All Time High?
We will see, but don't tell me that this can't target 0.0900 byu the end of the year.
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
BTCUSD: is far away from its Sell Zone.Bitcoin remains overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 70.017, MACD = 4154.600, ADX = 16.535) but still in the middle of the Cycle's Channel Up. After a 1W MA50 rebound (April 7th) on the bottom quarter, it is aiming for the blue Sell Zone of the top quarter of the Channel Up where the last two tops were priced. A +93.64% rise has been the most common inside this pattern. Based on that the minimum TP for this run is 140,000.
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Ethereum is Approaching an Important Support Zone!!Hey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring ETH/USDT for a buying opportunity around 2,520 zone, Ethereum is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 2,520 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
If Trend Reverses, We'll Most likely See 106-109k FirstTrading Fam,
We'll bring our knowledge of liquidity to the chart here today. You guys know that my new indicator utilizes liquidity as a prime factor in helping to alert us when to buy and sell any given asset. In our chart here today, I have also brought over the liquidation map from Glassnode, which will help us gain further insight into what Bitcoin's next move might be.
First, let me explain a few of the drawing here.
For those who may be new, those liquidity blocks are printed by LuxAlgo's "Liquidity Swings" indicator. I have incorporated them into my indicator and have combined it with another to alert me as to exactly when it might become a good time to buy or sell. Typically, I set the blocks to have a 15 day life cycle. When we are overbought and enter into a sell-side liquidity block, my indicator will flash a red dot. When we are oversold and enter into a buy-side liquidity block, my indicator will flash a green dot. These are typically super-accurate signals and are, at least, a good time to start your exits and/or entries but unfortunately, these DOTS DO NOT APPEAR in this chart due to this being a private indicator distributed by invite only.
I use additional indicators for confirmation and to support what my indicator is showing me, such as the VRVP. You can see the VRVP Point of Control (PoC) is at 96,425 in this chart, meaning that most of our recent traded volume is to the underside of us right now. This is positive. However, it is important to recognize that sometimes that PoC can act as sort of a magnet to pull price back to that area before further directional price trend movement. Keep this in mind as we continue to consider price movement here.
Back to the liquidity blocks. I've extended our last big liquidity block from Jan-Feb of this year out past the normal 15 day life cycle that I usually set. I think this is important as it appears to align with the data that I've brought over from Glassnode's Liquidation Map. Notice that on the map you see large liquidity pools both below the current price and also, above it. But the larger liquidity pool remains above us at the time of this post. This aligns with the resistance levels I have drawn on the chart in white which remain above us. And currently, we are also forming a bull flag pattern. So, are greatest probability of price movement right now remains to the upside. I am targeting that 106-108k area. Once hit, trend reversal could occur.
Here's what I expect.
We hit 106-108k. Then, at this point, the market must make a critical decision; do we continue up, beating previous highs, or do we first drop down and liquidate all those late longs from 93-104k?
Now, since we know that big money is in this game and wants as much as they can get at the best price possible, it is easier to determine what might occur. I suggest that once liquidation occurs up to 106-108k, sell-side pressure will be placed on the market in hopes of driving price back down to clean out all of those late long entries. That PoC level at around 96k is a good target here. Once this price has been hit, freeing up hundreds of millions in liquidated Bitcoin, the big buyers (smart money) will step back in to swoop up the loot and Bitcoin will be free to trend back up again.
Now, as always, I could be wrong. Let's talk about what happens if we beat our 106-108k overhead resistance levels. In this case, we could see Bitcoin pump as high as 125k before any local trend reversal begins to occur. I will re-assess at this point.
BLUF: 106-108k is key resistance. Mark your charts and keep your eye on what price does there. It will be key to what happens next.
✌️Stew
BTC/USDT Analysis – Back to Sideways Movement
Hello everyone! This is the daily analysis from the trader-analyst at CryptoRobotics.
Unfortunately, Bitcoin did not continue its move toward the $100,000 target yesterday, and we didn’t get a more favorable entry price for buying.
If we analyze the previous wave of selling from $105,000, we can see that we’ve returned to that range and consolidated within it. This again indicates a balance of power and a well-formed sideways range. The movement is occurring on reduced volume, which also signals market uncertainty.
At the moment, we observe a dominant presence of limit buyers within the current volume zone. Therefore, we primarily expect a test of the $105,000–$105,700 sell zone (market buy absorption area), from which a strong selling reaction is still possible, potentially pushing the price toward local lows. There are no notable volume-based support zones until the next major buying area. If there is no reaction in the designated sell zone, we expect Bitcoin to move toward $107,000.
Sell Zones:
$105,000–$105,700 (market buy absorption),
$107,000–$109,000 (volume anomalies).
Buy Zones:
~$100,000 (initiating volumes),
$98,000–$97,200 (local support),
$93,000 level,
$91,500–$90,000 (strong buying imbalance),
$88,100–$87,000 (market sell absorption),
$85,500–$84,000 (accumulated volumes),
$82,700–$81,400 (volume zone),
$74,800 level,
$69,000–$60,600 (accumulated volumes).
This publication is not financial advice.
Bitwise Bitcoin ETF | BITB | Long at $46.25It definitely should get everyone's attention when a US Senator (David McCormick) is willing to dish out up to $600,000 in a Bitcoin ETF ( AMEX:BITB ):
Feb. 27: Bought $50,000 to $100,000
Feb. 28: Bought $15,000 to $50,000
March 3: Bought $50,000 to $100,000
March 5: Bought $15,000 to $50,000
March 10: Bought $50,000 to $100,000
March 11: Bought $15,000 to $50,000
March 13: Bought $15,000 to $50,000
March 20: Bought $50,000 to $100,000
Something may be brewing this year with the "U.S. crypto reserve" and I'll throw down a couple grand at $46.25 with a self-proclaimed wild prediction into 2026: Bitcoin to $120,000.
Bitwise ETF Targets:
$50.00
$55.00
$60.00
$65.00
HelenP. I Bitcoin will fall to support zone and then start riseHi folks today I'm prepared for you Bitcoin analytics. This chart shows how the price continues to trade inside a rising channel, with the price currently hovering just above the support zone around 101000. After forming a clean consolidation phase near the upper boundary of the structure, the market is showing signs of a potential pullback toward this zone. However, the broader trend remains bullish, and as long as price holds within the ascending formation, this correction may act as a base for the next move higher. The consolidation structure formed at the top indicates that buyers are not rushing in aggressively, but they are also not allowing prices to drop sharply, a classic sign of accumulation. This aligns well with the previously confirmed trend line and horizontal support zone. If BTC holds this area and finds renewed momentum, I expect a breakout from the consolidation range to the upside. My goal remains at 107000 points, which sits a little higher than the projected top of the current channel. Given the strength of the structure, the higher lows, and the recent defense of support, I maintain a bullish bias and anticipate another upward wave from this level. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Bitcoin can drop from wedge to 100K pointsHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. After consolidating for an extended period within a triangle pattern, the price eventually broke out with strong bullish momentum. The move was supported by a solid rebound from the buyer zone and a clean breakout above the 92800 - 94200 support area. This breakout initiated a steep climb, forming a new upward wedge structure, defined by narrowing trend lines and rising local highs. Currently, the price is trading near the resistance boundary of the wedge, around the 104000 - 105000 zone. This zone has already triggered one rejection and is showing signs of weakening bullish strength. Given the rising wedge geometry and the fading impulse strength, the risk of a correction is increasing. The current structure typically leads to a pullback, especially after such a steep rise. I expect that BTC may rise to the resistance line of the wedge and then drop below the support line, thereby exiting from this pattern. That's why I set my TP 1 at the 100K points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Bitcoin Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring BTCUSDT for a buying opportunity around 100,000 zone, Bitcoin is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 100,000 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
BITCOIN - Price can leave pennant and rise to $106500 pointsHi guys, this is my overview for BTCUSDT, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some time ago, price traded inside a flat, where it declined to the $93400 support level and then rose to the top part of the flat.
Then it corrected, after which made a strong upward impulse, exiting from flat, and continued to grow in pennant.
In pennant, BTC broke $97800 and $102300 levels, after which it made retest and continued to grow to resistance line.
When the price reached this line, it corrected to support area, after which tried to grow, but failed and fell back.
But recently it rose to the resistance line of the pennant, where at the moment it continued to trades near.
In my opinion, BTC can correct to support line and then bounce up to $106500, exiting from the pennant.
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Gold - New ATH in the making?Overall Market Context
This daily timeframe chart of Gold (XAU/USD) reflects a textbook example of a bullish retracement within a broader upward trend. The price has recently pulled back after printing a significant swing high, which is currently the all-time high (ATH). This retracement brings Gold into a high-probability reversal zone, aligning several technical elements that point toward potential bullish continuation.
Retracement Into A Confluence Zone
Price has retraced into a key technical area defined by the Fibonacci golden pocket (0.618–0.65) and a Fair Value Gap (FVG). The golden pocket is widely regarded as one of the most reactive retracement levels in Fibonacci analysis, where institutional participants often enter or scale into positions. The addition of an FVG overlapping this zone strengthens its importance. An FVG is typically created by an aggressive move that leaves behind inefficient price action or unmitigated imbalances, and in this case, it represents an area where demand previously overwhelmed supply.
The combination of the golden pocket and FVG creates a strong demand zone, from which a bullish reaction is expected if the overall macro sentiment remains supportive.
Bullish Reaction And Confirmation
Price wicked slightly below the FVG, likely triggering liquidity stops resting beneath prior swing lows before showing signs of a strong bounce. This type of price action—known as a liquidity grab or "spring"—is often a precursor to significant reversals when it aligns with higher timeframe bullish order flow.
The current bounce from this zone suggests that smart money may have accumulated long positions here. If price continues to hold above this zone, it confirms a successful defense of this key area and increases the probability of bullish continuation. The market is showing signs of shifting from a retracement phase back into an impulsive phase.
Break Of Structure And Targeting Buy-Side Liquidity
The next key area of interest is the buy-side liquidity resting above the most recent swing high, labeled as the "BSL" (Buy-Side Liquidity). If price breaches this level, it will confirm a break of market structure to the upside and signal a continuation of the overall bullish trend.
Such a break would invalidate the idea of deeper retracement and instead align with an impulsive leg that could target the previous ATH—and potentially exceed it. This makes the current zone a critical pivot point in determining whether gold resumes its long-term bullish trajectory.
New All-Time High Scenario
Should the BSL be breached and momentum maintained, price is likely to head toward printing a new all-time high. From a psychological and technical standpoint, the break of an ATH often leads to price discovery, where resistance is minimal, and price action becomes more volatile and parabolic.
Traders and institutions monitoring historical highs often front-run such moves or aggressively participate once confirmed, driving increased volume and volatility. This behavior can lead to rapid upside extension, especially when supported by macroeconomic narratives such as inflation hedging, geopolitical tensions, or declining real yields—all traditionally bullish catalysts for gold.
After $105K Peak, Bitcoin May Revisit 0.382 FOB Level!CRYPTOCAP:BTC is pulling back after hitting a high of $105,800
If you look at the daily chart, we haven’t seen any healthy pullback, the price has gone straight up.
In my opinion, a retest of the 0.382 FOB level around $94K would be a healthy correction for Bitcoin. Based on the liquidation heatmap, we’re also seeing liquidity building up at lower levels.
This is one of the signs of a pullback, which is important for a sustainable and healthy market.
Stay tuned and follow for more updates!
TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #93👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro!
Let’s dive into the analysis of Bitcoin and key crypto indices. As usual, in this analysis, I’ll go over the triggers for the New York futures session.
⏳ 1-Hour Timeframe
Yesterday I mentioned the 102882 trigger for opening a position. The price made a bullish leg upward but failed to reach the 104866 resistance and is now moving back down.
🔍 If a lower high is formed compared to 104866 and the price approaches the 101628 support, we can open a position upon a breakdown of that level.
✨ The RSI oscillator is moving below the 50 zone, and with the selling volume coming into the market, the likelihood of forming a lower high than 104866 increases.
💥 Confirmation for a short position on the 101628 break could come from RSI entering the Oversold zone. Volume must also rise significantly, as the overall trend is still bullish, making short positions very risky. If you open one, make sure to secure profits quickly.
📈 For a long position, our trigger is still the 104866 breakout—no major change from previous days. The main resistance remains at 106247.
👑 BTC.D Analysis
Bitcoin dominance continued its upward movement to 63.30 yesterday and is now moving downward again. A breakdown of 62.65 would confirm the continuation of the downtrend in dominance.
🔼 For BTC.D to turn bullish again, it needs to break above 63.30 and could start another bullish leg if that happens.
📅 Total2 Analysis
This index didn’t move much higher yesterday due to the rise in Bitcoin dominance. It failed to reach its previous highs and is now near the 1.19 support.
📊 We can define a key support zone between 1.18 and 1.19. A breakdown of this zone could signal the start of a deeper correction.
📅 USDT.D Analysis
A range has formed between 4.51 and 4.69, and this index is consolidating within it.
🔑 A breakout in either direction could give us a trade setup. Breaking above 4.69 confirms a bullish move, while breaking below 4.51 signals a bearish trend and potential market rally.
❌ Disclaimer ❌
Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel.
Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.