BITCOIN Can this Inverse Head and Shoulders deliver $168000?We saw yesterday how Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading within a short-term Channel Down pattern, which as mentioned was just a Bull Flag on the long-term scale.
Today we examine this on the longer term time-frame and what stands out on 1D is an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S). Such patterns are incredibly bullish but are more often seen on market bottoms initiating strong long-term bullish reversals.
This time it has been formed on a 1W Bull Cycle uptrend (Channel Up), so it technically serves as a (very) long-term Accumulation Phase between the Cycle's previous All Time High (ATH) and the next one, which most likely will be the final (peak) of the Bull Cycle.
As mentioned numerous times in the past, IH&S patterns target their 2.0 Fibonacci extension level once broken. That is now at $168000 and falls well within the broader 150 - 200k range that most studies have as a potential Cycle Top.
So do you think that is realistic to expect? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)
BTC/USD Short Setup – Breakdown from Bear Flag Edge🚀||| 👆Your Boost is appreciated in Advance👆 |||🚀
Thesis: Bitcoin is trading within a well-defined descending channel, potentially forming a bear flag on the higher time frame. Price is currently hovering just below the key resistance zone near $108,600 (“The Edge”), failing to reclaim the upper boundary of the flag.
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Entry: 🔻 Short at $106,850 – Price is rejecting the upper channel resistance and failing to break above “The Edge”
Stop-Loss: 🔺 $109,000 – Above the recent swing high and invalidation of the flag structure
Take-Profit 1: ✅ $104,700 🎯
Take-Profit 2: ✅ $102,400 🎯
Optional extended:
TP4: $98,000 – Full measured move of the flag breakdown
Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:1 to 1:4 depending on target
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#MJTrading
#BTCUSD #Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #ShortSetup #BearFlag #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #MarketStructure #SwingTrade #TradingView
BITCOIN BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
BITCOIN SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 106,743.04
Target Level: 99,806.18
Stop Loss: 111,349.12
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1D
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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do not SHORT Bitcoin with 20XA consolidation range happens when the market trades sideways, in a neutral capacity. This sideways trading is neither bearish nor bullish, thus neutral. The bearish or bullish tendencies can only be defined based on the broader market structure.
If the consolidation range develops coming from a major drop, you can say that the market is bearish and the consolidation a bearish consolidation even if the breakout happens to the upside. Once it happens to the upside we can say that a reversal developed but the tendencies were bearish nonetheless.
If the consolidation range develops coming from a major rise, you can easy say while being correct that the market is bullish and the consolidation phase a bullish one, because of the bigger structure, previous price action and the chart.
Bitcoin is consolidating with bullish tendencies but there is a boundary which we call resistance and another boundary which we call support, this is the trading range. When the market is ranging, this is when margin traders lose the most because the trend remains hidden and money tends to be made when the market is in a clear trend.
Whenever the upper boundary gets challenged we get a retrace and a test of support. Whenever the lower boundary gets tested prices recover and move back up. This process gets repeated for as long as it is needed to remove all the weak hands, most of the signals are pure noise.
This is the situation in which we find Bitcoin today. Ultra-bullish but sideways and anything can happen short-term. Do not SHORT Bitcoin with 20X. You might end up with some fast and easy profits.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
Bitcoin H4 | Potential bullish bounce off an overlap supportBitcoin (BTC/USD) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 106,535.50 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 104,600.00 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 108,808.50 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
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BTC - Consolidation, Manipulation & DistributionMarket Context
The current price action unfolds within the broader structure of a bullish leg that began after a sharp reversal near 97,000. This impulsive rally created a clear Fair Value Gap on the 4-hour chart—left behind as price surged upward with minimal resistance. Following this move, the market entered a consolidation phase, forming a range that has now broken to the upside. This kind of breakout often attracts breakout traders, but in this case, the context signals something more calculated.
Buy Side Liquidity Sweep Following Consolidation
The breakout above the consolidation range led directly into a Buy Side Liquidity Sweep, as price ran the highs just above the marked range. These highs acted as a magnet for liquidity—stop losses from short sellers and buy stops from breakout traders were likely pooled in that area. The quick rejection following this sweep suggests the move was not backed by genuine demand, but rather served the purpose of liquidity collection by larger players.
Manipulation and Distribution
This is a textbook example of manipulation into liquidity. Price was engineered to move upward into a zone of interest, taking out the Buy Side Liquidity before sharply reversing. The strong rejection signals distribution—institutions likely offloaded positions into the influx of late buyers. This kind of pattern often precedes a larger markdown, particularly when followed by lower timeframe bearish structure breaks.
Unfilled Fair Value Gap as a Draw
Beneath the price lies an unfilled Fair Value Gap, a zone of imbalance left behind by the earlier impulsive move. These areas often act as magnets for price, especially once liquidity objectives to the upside have been completed. Now that the sweep has occurred and distribution is underway, there is a strong probability that price will begin to seek rebalancing within this Gap. The area between 104,000 and 103,500 stands out as a high-probability target for the next leg down.
Execution Insight
If you're looking to enter short, it may be wise to wait for confirmation on a lower timeframe—such as a bearish break of structure or an internal Gap forming during the retracement. A 5-minute timeframe can often give early signs of rejection or supply stepping in. Being patient and allowing the market to reveal intent is crucial, especially after liquidity-driven moves like this.
Final Thoughts
Price doesn’t move randomly—it seeks liquidity and fills inefficiencies. This chart beautifully illustrates that logic, from engineered consolidation to a manipulative sweep, and now potentially toward rebalancing.
If you found this breakdown helpful, I’d really appreciate a like—it helps support the work and keeps this kind of content going. Let me know in the comments what you think, or if you’re seeing it differently. I'm always up for a good discussion.
BTCUSD: $150,000 on a repetitive pattern.Bitcoin is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.823, MACD = 486.400, ADX = 23.402) possibly going through the last consolidation before the next breakout to a new ATH. The whole 2023-2025 Bull Cycle has been on a repetitive pattern, bottoming on the HL Zone and peaking on the HH trendline, while forming clear wave structures. According to this, the next HH should be around 150,000 (TP).
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BTC needs to hold up here. BTC is at a very important level. A role over is expected, but without market structure confirmation, it's important to consider the possibility of a move up. The bearish thesis on lower timeframes is the easy one. Ensure your bullish thesis is also considered. A confirmed lower low or a lower high would confirm a CHOCH reversal.
Full TA: Link in the BIO
BTC Consolidates Above $100K — Bullish Structure Remains IntactKey Support Holding Firm:
Bitcoin is consolidating above the critical $100,000–$105,000 support zone, a former resistance area from early 2025. Holding this level preserves the broader bullish structure.
Short-Term Noise, Long-Term Strength:
While recent price action shows some lower highs and lows, the long-term uptrend that began in April remains fully intact. This is typical consolidation behavior within a strong bull market.
Wedge Formation Points to Breakout:
A six-month wedge pattern continues to develop, often a precursor to a powerful breakout. If resolved to the upside, the next leg could target the $130,000–$135,000 range.
Outlook Remains Bullish:
As long as Bitcoin holds above $100,000, there’s no technical basis for a bearish scenario. This remains a constructive pause within a dominant uptrend.
#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #Bullish #SupportAndResistance #WedgeBreakout #LongTermTrend #MarketOutlook #PriceAction
Bitcoin will no longer update ATH, and here's why⚡️ Hello, everyone! I decided to update my idea about Bitcoin. Let's see what awaits us!
Bitcoin rebounded strongly over the weekend and is now trying to consolidate at the $107,000 level. This is a key level, which is the MSB level for the entire current momentum since May, and as long as the price remains below it, it is a bearish movement.
Last week, we also closed the GAP to the $98,000 level from the previous movement, but on the way up, we formed a new one at $105,250 - 101,360. And as we know, 99% of GAPs close sooner or later.
📉 Bitcoin also continues to move in a descending flag, which, although it is a bullish pattern in an upward impulse and more often breaks through upwards, has not been working that way for a long time. Trading based on technical analysis is the basis of crypto and has become very widespread, which is actively used by many whales and counterplayers. As a result, many pattern signals have long lost their relevance and now often give false signals.
⚙️ Metrics and indicators:
Volume - divergence with price since the end of April. Throughout this upward momentum, purchase volumes continued to decline. This indicates a lack of liquidity and demand for Bitcoin at present.
Money Flow - also divergence with price. Also, since the end of April, positions have continued to close and liquidity has continued to decline. This indicates a lack of interest in the asset.
Liquidity Depth - we know that the price moves from liquidity to liquidity, which serves as its fuel. And now there is much more liquidity at the bottom than at the top.
Support/Resistance - Based on the volume of interest, it is clear that the $106,000 level is a major zone, and if it is lost, the nearest support level will only be at $103,004, but with significantly lower volumes.
📌 Conclusion:
Despite all the huge inflows into ETFs, there is now even less liquidity in Bitcoin than in November 2024, when Trump became president.
This suggests that everyone is actively closing their positions and there is no new money coming in. Search queries for the tags “crypto” and “bitcoin” are not even close to last year's levels, let alone 2021 levels. This means that there is no new retail interest in crypto right now.
I don't see any catalysts right now that could keep the price at this level. And ETFs are not an indicator at all; we've already seen how these “smart money” buyers bought at 110k on ATH and sold even more at 70k.
🔥 So, right now, I recommend sitting back and watching. Let the market sort itself out and indicate the direction of movement going forward.
Strategy H2 2025. BTC Airless Plot Near $100'000 Choking PointOver the past 6 months, Bitcoin (BTC) has demonstrated a very mixed up/down performance, marked by significant price fluctuations, appreciation and volatility.
From late December 2024 to June 2025, BTC's price rose from approximately $92,000 to around $108,000, representing a gain of about 17.26% over this period.
On the other hand. the price fluctuated between last price in 2024 $92,000 and BTC' low near $74,491 achieved in early April 2025, posting the similar, nearly 20 percent year-to-date decline.
Bitcoin's price trajectory during this time was influenced by several factors. Early in 2025, BTC reached a new all-time high near $109,000 but faced a pullback triggered by profit-taking and macroeconomic uncertainties, dropping nearly 30% to about $74,000 by April. This decline was short-lived, as Bitcoin quickly rebounded by roughly 24%, climbing back to mid-$90,000 levels and eventually surpassing $100,000 again by June, signaling wide range fluctuations are getting for longer.
The technical setup suggests that Bitcoin is poised for further swings around $100'000 choking point.
In summary, Bitcoin’s performance over the last six months has been characterized by sharp correction, mixed technical buy and sell signals, with no any solid fundamental support from institutional investors.
These factors collectively indicate a mixed outlook for BTC, with further price fluctuations in wide range, as a mid-term pricе action perspective for H2 2025 and for longer.
Similar like a year ago 52-week SMA could be considered as major support level.
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Best wishes,
@PandorraResearch Team 😎
Bitcoin Mid Term Game Plan - BTC PLANBitcoin just broke a key resistance level with strength.
I expect a new all-time high soon, likely the summer top.
Summer markets are usually weak for risk assets and strong for gold. Seasonality matters, keep that in mind.
I expect risk markets to sell off until mid-July to early August. I’ll start buying once we break structure again.
The plan:
Wait for BTC to hit $110K
Look for a reversal from that level
Start aggressively shorting alts, beginning with ETH and memecoins
Hold shorts until late July / early August
Close positions and shift back to buying
Bitcoin - Will Bitcoin Hit a New ATH?!Bitcoin is trading above the 50- and 200-EMAs on the four-hour time frame and is within its short-term descending channel. Bitcoin can be bought from the demand zone indicated. A break of the channel ceiling would pave the way for Bitcoin to rise to a new ATH.
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy within the demand range.
In recent days, Bitcoin has been trading in a range of around $107,000, and the market is going through a consolidation phase with complex but deeply fundamental characteristics. What matters at this point is not just the current price, but the precise mix of capital flows, the behavior of major players, on-chain data, and macroeconomic ratios that shape Bitcoin’s short- and medium-term trajectory. Overall, although Bitcoin’s rapid growth after the halving has stopped, internal market signals point to a continuation of the upward trajectory in a more stable framework.
The first important component is the significant influx of institutional capital into the market via ETFs. In the past week, according to CoinShares, more than $1.24 billion in new capital entered crypto products, with Bitcoin accounting for more than $1.1 billion. This marks the 10th consecutive week of capital inflows into the market, bringing the total inflows for 2025 to over $15 billion. Prominent ETFs such as BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC are attracting hundreds of Bitcoins per day, indicating steady institutional demand that has weathered the momentary volatility and is more focused on long-term asset building.
Alongside this capital inflow, the Onchain data also paints a mixed but highly interpretable picture. While the average active address rate has declined slightly and the MVRV (market value to realized value) has fallen from 2.29 to 2.20, these changes are more indicative of profit-taking by investors than selling pressure! In fact, rather than fear of a correction or crash, the market is witnessing a “gentle shift of ownership” between short-term and long-term holders. UTXO data also shows a roughly 5% increase in Bitcoin held for over 8 years, a strong sign of long-term accumulation and a decrease in the willingness to sell at current prices!
This can be seen as a period of supply and demand equilibrium; a period in which large investors have entered, but on the other hand, some older players are taking reasonable profits. This has led to a kind of price consolidation, which in June showed itself with only 2% growth—the weakest monthly growth since July last year. However, CoinDesk and Glassnode analysts rightly emphasize that this consolidation is not a sign of market weakness, but rather evidence of the maturity of Bitcoin’s price behavior. The price is reacting to data rather than becoming emotional.
From a macroeconomic perspective, Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, the value of the dollar, and interest rates. While the market is still waiting for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, Bitcoin will remain in a quasi-expectant state until then, reacting to macro data, short-term and reactive. However, given that most ETFs follow long-term accumulation models, any stabilization in interest rates or easing geopolitical pressures could trigger a new wave of upside. Common analyst scenarios predict a range of $120,000-$130,000 for Bitcoin by the end of the summer if current conditions are maintained and capital inflows continue. In summary, Bitcoin is now at a stage where the dynamic combination of institutional accumulation, supply and demand balance, and on-chain data has transformed it from a purely risky asset into a strategic investment vehicle. The market has moved beyond the emotional phase and entered a phase of stability and maturity. This is a promising sign for long-term investors, provided that risk management is maintained and sensitivity to macro events is maintained. Bitcoin is preparing for the next stage of its rally—but unlike in the past, this time it is standing on the shoulders of fundamentals that are much stronger than at any time in the asset’s history.
ETFs with the most volume traded on Friday
Total: $501M
BlackRock: $153M
Fidelity: $165M
Grayscale: $0M
30/06/25 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $108,531.02
Last weeks low: $99,592.69
Midpoint: $104,061.86
Overall a positive week for BTC in isolation as price moves steadily all week reclaiming the losses made in the week from the 16th-23rd June. This comes after a $2.2B BTC ETF weekly inflow, the 3rd consecutive week of net inflows.
Having now hit the key S/R level of $108,500 it will be interesting to see where BTC goes from here. Jumping up above the level will require a lot from the bulls as ATH is within touching distance and so buying into major resistance is a tough ask. We also have Geo-political uncertainties to add to the situation, one bad tweet is all it takes sometimes to do a lot of damage.
On the other hand the SNP500 hits new ATH in the same conditions and so BTC is more than capable of doing the same.
So far in the first hours of this weeks trading we do have a SFP of the weekly high setup, not ideal for the bulls in any way and so from here the a retest of the range quarters, midpoint being the key area would make sense, invalidation would be a clean break above weekly high with acceptance and strong volume on the move to break the rangebound/choppy environment.
There is also the "window dressing" element to the months &quarter end today. History shows a de-risking going into these events and more money flowing back into risk-on assets in the days following monthly/ quarterly end. For that reason a bullish move (if there were to be one) would come later in the week IMO.
Good luck this week everybody!
BITCOIN Rejected (so far) where it absolutely SHOULDN'T!!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) hit today the top of the Channel Down pattern, which as we've discussed numerous times, is most likely on the long-term a Bull Flag technically. Still, this early test has so far turned into a rejection.
Early on to tell as the price remains above even the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but if it breaks above the closes a 1D candle above the top of the pattern, we expect it to immediately target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level at 119500. We have analyzed of course why on the long-term the Target is at least $150k, but this is a shorter term analysis. Notice also how the 1D RSI has already broken above its Lower Highs trend-line.
As long as the price remains rejected within the Channel Down, it is possible to look for support on the 100000 level again, where this time it may make contact with the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) in an attempt to 'attract' the last batch of buyers.
Which scenario do you think will prevail? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTC/USD Technical Analysis – Weekly Elliott Wave StructureIn this video, we analyze the weekly chart of Bitcoin ( BYBIT:BTCUSDT ) using Elliott Wave theory.
The current structure suggests the beginning of a new bullish impulse (waves 0, 1, and 2) following a clearly completed and technically correct corrective phase.
We explore potential impulsive scenarios starting from wave 2, using Fibonacci extensions to project possible targets and identifying key support zones and invalidation levels.
This analysis aims to provide a macro perspective based on price action, helpful for traders and investors following BTC from a medium- to long-term technical view.
🛑 Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Each user is responsible for their own trading decisions.
Bitcoin Weekly & $120,000This weekly Bitcoin chart says it all... Please, allow me to reveal to you what the future holds!
Good evening my fellow Cryptocurrency trader, what a wonderful day.
Only one week ever produced a higher close than the current price. Only once, 19-May, Bitcoin managed to close above $107,000... What happens if Bitcoin closes above $107,000? New all-time high confirmed.
Two days remain for the week to close and we—the bulls—only need to maintain a price of $107,000 or higher to send such a strong bullish signal that everybody will come out and start buying.
The next target on this timeframe is $120,000.
Bitcoin is using EMA13 as support. This level was tested and holds, the same for EMA8. When Bitcoin moved above these levels in April, it produced an advance from $83,000 to $112,000, more than 33%. The price now is $107,000 but instead of recovering from below EMA8/13, BTCUSDT is trading above; this means that the bullish bias is fully confirmed.
The weekly timeframe looks great. We can expect higher prices soon, with growth happening for an extended period of time. Bitcoin is very strong now and this is only the start.
I will continue to share proof that shows the entire Cryptocurrency market going up.
Thank you for reading.
Leave a comment with your questions.
Thanks a lot for your support.
Namaste.
Analyzing the new month, new week, new day
Hello, traders.
If you "follow", you can always get the latest information quickly.
Have a nice day today.
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(BTCUSDT 1M chart)
A new month begins in one day.
The key is whether it can hold the price by rising above 109588.0.
If not, there is a possibility that it will fall below the 94172.00 StochRSI 50 indicator point that the arrow is pointing to.
We need to see if it can rise with support near the Fibonacci ratio of 1.618 (89050.0).
Since the current low-point trend line is not complete, it is not surprising that it can show a downward trend at any time.
However, if it rises above 109588.0 and maintains the price, it is expected that there will be an attempt to rise near the Fibonacci ratio of 2.618 (133889.92).
I think it is likely to be the last target of the target bull market in 2025.
-
(1W chart)
It is a period of volatility around the week including June 23.
That is, from June 16 to July 6 is the volatility period.
The key is whether it can rise to the right Fibonacci ratio 2.24 (116940.43) during this volatility period.
Even if it fails to rise, if the price maintains above 104463.99, it is expected to show an upward trend around the next volatility period.
The next volatility period on the 1W chart is expected to be around the week of August 18.
-
When it falls below 104463.99, we need to check whether the HA-High indicator is newly generated.
If not, it is important to check whether there is support around the current HA-High indicator point of 99705.62.
Since the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart is passing around 99705.62, its importance can be said to be high.
If it falls below the M-Signal indicator of the 1W chart, it is expected to determine the trend again when it meets the M-Signal indicator of the 1M chart.
-
(1D chart)
The key is whether it can maintain the price by rising above the HA-High indicator point of 108316.90 on the 1D chart.
If it fails to rise,
1st: 104463.99
2nd: 99705.62
You should check for support near the 1st and 2nd above.
If it falls below the M-Signal indicator of the 1W chart,
1st: 89294.25
2nd: M-Signal of the 1M chart
There is a possibility that it will fall near the 1st and 2nd above.
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(1W chart)
The chart above is a trend line chart drawn on the 1W chart.
It looks complicated, but what's important to look at is the correlation between the high-point trend line and the low-point trend line.
That is, even if the price rises above 109.588.0, if it doesn't rise above the high-point trend line, it is likely to fall near the low-point trend line.
Fortunately, since it is forming an upward channel, it is expected that the price will eventually rise even if it falls.
-
(1D chart)
Unlike the trend line on the 1W chart, the high-point trend line on the 1D chart forms a downward trend line.
Accordingly, the period around July 7, when the low-point trend line and the high-point trend line intersect, can be considered an important period of volatility.
However, the volatility period starts around July 2nd and is expected to end around July 10th.
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As shown above, many lines were drawn to analyze the chart.
I have roughly explained which of the lines drawn in this way should be prioritized.
Since chart analysis is for creating a trading strategy, the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts are ultimately the most important.
Therefore, it is most important to check how the support and resistance points were created and find the reason for them.
Other analyses are only additional elements.
As I always say, chart analysis that does not show support and resistance points is only an analysis chart that can be used for trading.
You cannot trade with such analysis charts.
Also, if support and resistance points are shown, you should check the basis for setting the support and resistance points.
In order to serve as a support and resistance point, there must be a basis.
When you cannot confirm the basis for the support and resistance point, it is important to ask questions and find out the basis.
Fibonacci ratios are not suitable for actual trading.
However, when the ATH or ATL is updated, it is valuable enough for analysis.
Other than that, there must be support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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- This is an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
I will explain more details when the bear market starts.
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