BITCOIN 's 'Final 6 months rally' kickstarts the Altseason!This isn't the first time we show you this chart but it couldn't be more relevant than today. We have established on previous analyses how Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has most likely started the final rally of its Cycle, historically the parabolic rally of the last 6 months of the Bull Cycle that ends with its Top.
The addition of today's analysis is that with Bitcoin Dominance (orange trend-line) approaching its 8-year Lower Highs trend-line, this 'Final 6 months rally' of BTC is what technically also starts the Altseason. This is when lower cap coins see massive gains compared to the high cap ones.
At the same time, we get one more confirmation of why a $150k BTC Target is realistic, as by the end of 2025, this price would still be on the 0.618 Fibonacci level of the 8-year Fib Channel Up, a rather 'bad case' scenario based on this pattern.
So what do you think? Will BTC's Final 6 months rally spark a massive Altseason too? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)
btc . may . w3 . thuin retrospect
- SHORT towards 2pm (UTC+2) . into wOpen + fib resis - was the TOD
- compounding LONG gave a new avg LONG
entry . 102586
sl . 100017
tp1 . 104576
tp2 . 105871
for bullish continuation, price around 2pm needs to be a support zone.
if we see it the other way around, we could rotate to lower prices.
if price breaks out above 102586, we TRAP NEW SHORTS - which came in at 102100 . 20mil vol . push price back into 0.75% weekly range for tp1
101K to 110KMorning folks,
So, since Monday situation barely has changed. As we said - retracement should be small and we pointed 101K support area. 98K is also nice but it is a kind of vital area for this setup.
Now you could see everything goes great. Market is moving out of 101K.
Here is two shapes might be - immediate upside action by butterfly, or still, a bit deeper retracement in a way of "222" Buy. But anyway market has to stay above 98K to keep this scenario valid.
So let's see. By far everything looks very accurate and predictable.
Decision Point at Major Trendline 📊🚀 Bitcoin Today: Decision Point at Major Trendline ⚡📈
Hey Traders!
Bitcoin is once again at a critical decision point. The price is currently holding above the key ascending trendline around 101,970, and the market is giving us a clear message: Hold and Bounce... or Break and Drop.
If BTC can sustain above this trendline, we maintain a bullish bias with a 70% probability 📈 of reaching our first major target at 105,962. Break that, and the path to 113,000 opens up nicely!
However, stay vigilant! A confirmed break below 101,970 could invalidate the bullish setup and expose lower targets around 99,985 and 97,770.
📅 The next few candles will be decisive—perfect time to practice patience and disciplined entries.
Let’s see if BTC can hold the line and give us that bullish continuation we’re waiting for!
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Bitcoin Today- Time to Pump?📊🚀 Bitcoin Today 🌍🔥
Hey Traders!
Bitcoin is holding critical support at 101,970, and the probability for a bullish reversal remains high at 70% 📈. If momentum picks up, we’re eyeing targets at 105,000 and possibly a stretch toward 113,000.
However, remain cautious! If BTC loses the 101,970 level, downside targets are set at 99,000 and even 97,000. Manage your risk accordingly!
🔹 On the fundamental side, global events like Trump’s negotiations in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, along with Ukraine peace talks, are fueling optimism. Stock markets have already reacted—crypto might be next in line!
💡 Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) is facing heavy resistance at 63.5%. A rejection here could trigger a fresh wave of altcoin strength, with dominance potentially falling toward the 59-60% range.
📈 Altcoin Market (TOTAL3) is showing strong bullish potential. As long as we hold above the 893B support, the upside target sits at 1.13 Trillion USD, representing a +25% gain.
The charts are loaded with opportunity—stay focused and let’s see if altseason is officially kicking off!
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
BTC - ATH Incoming?current market structure
this 1-hour chart of btcusdt presents a sophisticated transition from accumulation to a potential breakout structure, with well-defined fair value gaps (fvgs) and a clear instance of manipulation followed by rapid recovery. the market appears to be attempting to regain bullish momentum following a liquidity sweep and subsequent internal shift in structure.
accumulation within an ascending channel
price action developed within an ascending channel, marked by higher highs and higher lows over time. this is a classic representation of controlled bullish accumulation. the tight, stair-stepping movement reflects steady institutional positioning, building long exposure while keeping volatility contained. this phase shows multiple rejections of the lower trendline, confirming consistent demand.
manipulation into fvg
the breakdown beneath the channel coincides with a sharp move into a large fvg (highlighted in light blue). this aggressive wick likely triggered stop-losses of retail longs, constituting a liquidity grab or manipulation event. such actions are typical after extended consolidations, flushing out weak hands to enable large players to enter at a discount. the reaction from this zone confirms its significance, as buyers immediately stepped in and reclaimed lost ground.
recovery and shift in momentum
after manipulation, the market found support in the fvg zone and launched a sharp bullish move. the rapid recovery illustrates strong underlying demand. the price re-entered a smaller fvg (labelled “resistance in this fvg”), briefly faced selling pressure, and then decisively broke through it. this reclaim of supply zones is often a powerful signal that bullish momentum is back in control.
bullish inversion fair value gap (ifvg)
price is now challenging a smaller bullish internal fair value gap (ifvg), marked in red. this zone, which once acted as a resistance layer, has now become a pivot point. successful hold or breakout above this region would likely trigger continuation, with market participants targeting previous swing highs or beyond.
break of structure and bullish continuation
a key development here is the break above the previous swing high or "bsL" (buy-side liquidity). this signifies a structural shift—no longer just recovering, the market is actively seeking higher liquidity. such breaks often catalyze rapid directional movement, especially when they occur after liquidity has been swept from the opposite side.
distribution and potential for new all-time high
the green projection suggests the possibility of further bullish expansion toward a distribution zone. if current momentum continues and no major supply zones disrupt the advance, the market could be on its way to challenge or set new all-time highs (ath). the label “on the way to new ath?” reflects this open-path scenario, contingent on continuation above 105,600–106,000 levels.
market psychology
this chart reveals a narrative of engineered manipulation followed by strength confirmation. institutions manipulated price below support to shake out retail traders, then absorbed that liquidity and pushed price higher. once resistance was reclaimed, confidence returned, inviting both short cover and fresh long entries. such sequences reinforce the importance of waiting for price reactions at key levels rather than acting on the first impulse.
summary
btc has exited an accumulation phase within a rising channel, experienced a strategic liquidity sweep into a deep fvg, and then quickly reversed. the current positioning above multiple reclaimed fvgs and just beneath a structural break confirms a bullish outlook. if price holds above the current bullish ifvg, the pathway to distribution and possibly new highs remains open. strategic traders may now focus on confirming pullbacks into these reclaimed zones for continuation setups.
Bitcoin SeasonalitySince 2013, the distance between each Bitcoin bottom and peak is approximately 205 weeks. Similarly, the distance between the peak and the bottom is approximately 52 weeks. In addition, when the Fibonacci correction is applied to each bear season, the new target appears to be the 1.618 region, so Bitcoin currently has the potential to run to 148k. As long as seasonality continues, the peak will come at the end of 2025.
#BSVUSDT #1D (ByBit) Falling wedge breakoutBitcoin Satoshi Vision is pulling back to 100EMA daily support where it seems likely to bounce and resume bullish, mid-term.
⚡️⚡️ #BSV/USDT ⚡️⚡️
Exchanges: ByBit USDT
Signal Type: Regular (Long)
Leverage: Isolated (2.0X)
Amount: 4.5%
Entry Targets:
1) 38.05
Take-Profit Targets:
1) 63.54
Stop Targets:
1) 29.54
Published By: @Zblaba
AMEX:BSV BYBIT:BSVUSDT.P #BitcoinSatoshiVision #PoW
Risk/Reward= 1:3.0
Expected Profit= +134.0%
Possible Loss= -44.7%
Estimated Gain-time= 2 months
BTC (Y25.P2.E1) Have 2 scenariosHi Traders,
I won't use words as the charts do the job if you can read charts.
Scenario #1, price moves up from here
Scenario #2, price sweeps the lows for liquidity. A fractal is aligned with it.
I'm looking to enter the trade big at the lows with Avwap, EMAs and liquidity making a strong case.
Here are short term levels based on our approach.
All the best,
Regards,
S.SAri
BTC (Y25.P2.E2). Ideal scenarioHi Traders,
As per the chart, the VAH is the main resistance so another dip might be the catalyst required to break through it.
Difficult to say if we sweep the highs first at 106k range for liquidity for a nice short or sweep the lows first.
All the Best
SSari
SMALLER TIME FRAME
in a range to trade
Momentum Fades: Is Bitcoin Poised for a Pullback to Rebalance?Given the recent easing of US-China tariff tensions 🇺🇸🇨🇳, we’re observing a notable rotation of capital into equities 📈. This shift is lending strength to the US dollar 💵, which in turn has exerted downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price action. After a strong momentum-driven rally 🚀, Bitcoin is now showing early signs of weakness, suggesting a potential consolidation or a measured pullback.
With equity markets—particularly tech stocks—appearing overextended 🏦, a retracement seems likely. Since Bitcoin remains closely correlated with the tech sector, a synchronized pullback across both asset classes is a plausible scenario. I’m closely monitoring for a counter-trend opportunity, specifically eyeing a short entry should we see a decisive break in market structure 🔍.
It’s important to note that this setup is highly dependent on price action confirming the thesis as outlined in the accompanying video. If the anticipated conditions do not materialize, this trade idea will be promptly invalidated. ⚠️
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading cryptocurrencies and equities involves significant risk. Please conduct your own research and consult with a professional advisor before making any investment decisions. 📊
Predicting the Next Bitcoin 200MA Peak Using Exponential DecayIn my ongoing study of Bitcoin market cycles, I noticed a compelling pattern in the behavior of the 200-day moving average (200MA) across bull markets. Specifically, I observed that the percentage rise of the 200MA from each cycle bottom to cycle top is decreasing over time, and this decline follows an exponential decay pattern.
Historical Observations:
• 2015 Cycle Bottom to 2017 Peak:
The 200MA increased by approximately +686%
• 2018 Cycle Bottom to 2021 Peak:
The 200MA increased by approximately +450%
This pattern suggested to me that the next peak in the 200MA might continue this decaying trajectory. To estimate this, I applied a simple exponential decay model using the two previous data points:
y(t) = A.e^{-kt}
Solving for the next value (t = 2), the model predicts an approximate increase of +296% in the 200MA from the current cycle bottom to the expected peak.
Implication for the Current Cycle:
Assuming the 200MA bottomed around $16,200, a +296% rise implies a target 200MA near:
$16,200 x (1 + 2.96) is approx. $64,000
This aligns remarkably well with the 2021 bull market top, reinforcing the idea that the previous all-time high (~ GETTEX:64K –$69K) could serve as a strong macro support level once this cycle matures.
Conclusion:
If this exponential decay pattern continues, we can expect the 200MA to peak around $64,000 during the current bull cycle. This target also coincides with historical resistance turned potential support, making it a critical level for long-term investors and swing traders alike.
This type of decay-based modeling, while not exact, offers a unique lens through which we can assess Bitcoin’s macro behavior across cycles. I’ll continue to monitor how this projection plays out and refine the model with new data as the market evolves.
Bitcoin could reach as high as $250,000.I think Bitcoin could reach as high as $250,000 per coin in wave 5, as crypto often experiences extended fifth waves—similar to what we see in commodity markets like gold and silver. It’s possible for it to go even higher than this, but I believe $250,000 is a very realistic target.
As always, stay profitable.
– Dalin Anderson
Crude oil is extremely bullish.I see a very similar market structure in crude oil’s big picture as in the early days of Bitcoin. People will say, “But what about electric cars?”—yet few realize that over 6,000 products are made with oil. Not to mention, long-term oil use isn't going anywhere, even with the rise of electric vehicles.
I believe oil is actually very undervalued and has been repressed for many years. It can't be held down forever—a big upward move is pretty much inevitable.
As always, stay profitable.
- Dalin Anderson
Bitcoin - The Bottom Is In!Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) is reversing right now:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
It was really just a matter of time until Bitcoin actually manages to create a potential short term and longer term bottom. With this monthly candle, bulls are taking over again and starting to buy cryptos quite heavily. The chart just tells us that this is not the end, but rather the continuation.
Levels to watch: $70.000, $300.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
BTCUSD: The 1W MACD Bullish Cross eyes $160k.Bitcoin is on excellent bullish levels on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 67.904, MACD = 4228.900, ADX = 24.411) and even better on 1W where the MACD just formed a Bullish Cross. All such formations since October 2022 led to at least a + 72.93% rally from the moment of the formation. This suggests that Bitcoin's next high on this Channel Up pattern can be around $160,000.
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BTC - Will we repeat last year price action?Bitcoin (BTC) has recently been trading within a relatively wide range, fluctuating between the $108,000 and $74,000 levels. Over the past several months, the asset experienced a notable decline from its local high of $108,000 down to a low of around $74,000. However, since reaching that bottom, BTC has been on a recovery trajectory, climbing back up toward the $106,000 region as of May. This rebound has brought renewed optimism to the market, but the key question now arises: is this upward momentum sustainable, or is it merely another temporary relief rally within a larger consolidation phase?
To evaluate the potential sustainability of this move, it is insightful to compare the current price action with that of exactly one year ago. In the same May period last year, BTC was also trading within a defined range, between $73,000 and $56,000. The pattern that unfolded then may offer clues as to what might happen next.
At that time, Bitcoin formed a double top, a classic technical pattern that often signals weakening bullish momentum. This structure developed over two distinct peaks, let's call them Point 1 and Point 2. Following the double top formation, the market began to retrace, initiating a decline that led to the creation of Point 3. This low established a key trendline, marking the beginning of a longer-term structural setup.
After bouncing from Point 3, BTC managed to rally once more, approaching a new all-time high but falling just short. This rally formed what can be referred to as Point 4, and notably, this occurred in May, exactly where we are now on the calendar. However, this attempt to break to new highs ultimately failed. The market lost momentum, and BTC turned downward once again, culminating in another test of the established trendline. This next low, which we can label Point 5, occurred in July and served as the third touchpoint of the trendline, reinforcing its significance.
Fast forward to the present, and it appears that Bitcoin may be following a similar structural path. The current price action suggests that Points 1, 2, and 3 have already been formed in recent months. The bounce that we’re witnessing now could potentially be developing into Point 4, mirroring the rally seen last May. If history were to repeat or even slightly rhyme, we may be approaching a local high, after which the market could face renewed downward pressure.
Such a move would align with a third touch of the longer-term trendline, potentially occurring in the coming months, perhaps around July, just as it did the previous year. Furthermore, this prospective downside move would also serve to close a daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) that has remained largely unfilled, a technical factor that many traders are currently watching.
In summary, while the recent price recovery in Bitcoin is encouraging, a closer examination of past market structure and recurring seasonal patterns suggests caution. The market may be setting up for a local high in May, followed by a potential retracement that would once again validate key support levels and trendlines. Whether this scenario plays out in full remains to be seen, but the parallels with last year’s behavior are worth noting for any trader or investor closely monitoring the charts.
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S&P500 vs BitcoinNormally, when the S&P500 goes into a bear market, Bitcoin follows.
This cycle, however, for the first time, the S&P500 went into a bear market, while BTC remained above its prior all time highs.
This cycle, Bitcoin either proves a new level of resilience among broader economic uncertainty, or a similar pattern is still yet to play out.
Bitcoin Is Final Stages Of A Bullish CycleBitcoin is still bullish and the rise looks impulsive on the monthly chart, but cyclically, we are in the late stages of a 3-year bull run that can end this year, ideally around October 2025. There’s actually still about 5 months of a bullish trend to complete 35 monthly bars, like in previous bullish cycles, so we may easily see more gains this year from a technical perspective.
Next year we should be aware of a bear market that can last at least 12 monthly bars or one year.