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Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)

Update the scenario for BTC.Dom - When might Altseason actually?Currently, BTC.Dom CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D is following the second scenario I mentioned in my previous post. This is the only scenario I can think of right now. According to this scenario, I predict that from now until Trump's inauguration, it will remain quite challenging for Altcoins. To determine whether Altseason will occur, it’s best to wait until the beginning of February to make an informed decision about deploying capital. The image below shows instances of the M-pattern , where the second peak is higher than the first, followed by significant **Altcoin growth** in previous seasons. If this second scenario doesn’t play out, my concern is that BTC.Dom could return to the 70 region. In that case, Altcoins would be completely crushed, and I truly hope this worst-case scenario doesn’t happen. :(
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by Unikryptonian
Opulous ($OPULUSDT): Awaiting Entry for 100% + Upside in MusicFiI spend time researching and finding the best entries and setups, so make sure to boost and follow for more. **Opulous ( KUCOIN:OPULUSDT ): Awaiting Entry for Promising Upside in MusicFi** Trade Setup: - Entry Price: $0.06486 (Pending Activation) - Stop-Loss: $0.04369 - **Take-Profit Targets:** - **TP1:** $0.14686 - **TP2:** $0.24000 **Current Price:** $0.07048 Fundamental Analysis: Opulous ( KUCOIN:OPULUSDT ) is leading the way in MusicFi by merging decentralized finance (DeFi) with the music industry. Through its platform, artists can mint music as NFTs, allowing fans to directly invest in their music and share in royalty streams. This revolutionary approach is disrupting traditional music rights management and has garnered significant attention from artists and investors alike. Recent developments, such as new artist partnerships and an increase in platform adoption, underscore Opulous’s potential to drive innovation in the blockchain space. Tokenomics Overview: - **Total Supply:** 500 million tokens. - **Utility:** Facilitates music NFT transactions, staking, and royalty payments. - **Growth:** Rapid adoption within the MusicFi niche, attracting both artists and investors. Technical Analysis (4-Hour Timeframe): - Support Levels: $0.06500 is a strong support zone near the anticipated entry price, aligning with previous price consolidation levels. - Resistance Levels: $0.07500 is the first key resistance, with further resistance at TP1 ($0.14686). - Moving Averages: - 20-EMA: $0.07000 - 50-EMA: $0.06700 - Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently at 57, signaling neutral momentum, providing room for further upside. Market Sentiment: Interest in MusicFi continues to grow, with Opulous at the forefront of this trend. The unique proposition of allowing fans to invest in music royalties via NFTs is driving increased market interest. Community engagement remains strong, reflecting confidence in the project’s long-term potential. Risk Management: The stop-loss at $0.04369 provides protection against significant downside risk, while the take-profit targets offer excellent upside potential. TP1 represents a **126% return**, and TP2 offers a potential **270% gain**, making this trade highly attractive for mid- to long-term investors. Key Takeaways: - Opulous is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the growing MusicFi trend, blending blockchain with real-world applications in the music industry. - Awaiting a pullback to $0.06486 for an optimal entry point into this promising setup. - The trade offers a compelling risk-to-reward ratio, ideal for swing traders and long-term holders. When the Market’s Call, We Stand Tall. Bull or Bear, We’ll Brave It All!
Long
by SiriusTrading
Market Pulse: Bitcoin's Dip & BlueZelle's ResilienceDespite Bitcoin's sharp downturn, BlueZelle shows signs of stability and potential recovery. An analysis of market psychology, key liquidity zones, and technical indicators suggests a optimistic outlook. COINBASE:BTCUSD CRYPTO:BTCUSD COINBASE:BLZUSD CRYPTO:BLZUSD Bitcoin's Downturn: The recent Bitcoin drop was expected, with clear resistance and range boundaries acting as decisive zones. BlueZelle's Stability: Despite overall market weakness, BlueZelle demonstrated resilience, with liquidity clusters indicating sustained buyer interest. Bollinger Bands Analysis: Convergence of the Bollinger Bands suggests a key liquidity zone, supporting the likelihood of upward price movement. Oscillator Signals: Both RSI and Stochastic indicators are emerging from oversold territory, hinting at bullish sentiment. Market Psychology: Fear, greed, and herd mentality are driving current price action, but signs of stabilization are emerging. Key Price Levels: Short-term retracement is expected to reach key levels around $0.068, with potential for further upside. Strategic Advice: Avoid panic selling during downturns; market corrections are temporary, and historical patterns suggest rebounds are likely. In this video update, we dive deep into the current state of Bitcoin and BlueZelle amidst a broader market correction. Bitcoin's downward trajectory aligns with previously observed resistance and range boundaries, suggesting the move was not entirely unexpected. Meanwhile, BlueZelle demonstrates remarkable resilience despite Bitcoin's turbulence, with key liquidity zones converging and strong buyer sentiment supporting price stability. The analysis emphasizes the importance of understanding market psychology, crowd behavior, and technical indicators like Bollinger Bands, RSI, and Stochastic Oscillators. Emphasis on patience and strategic decision-making, caution against panic selling during dips. With an expected retracement to key levels and potential bullish continuation, the market remains cautiously optimistic.
by Hollywood260AB
2
"BTCUSDT Alert: Short Signal Activated at the Hunt Level!"BINANCE:BTCUSDT COINBASE:BTCUSD 📈Which side you pick? Bulls or Bears ----> Quick help: look at Negan's bat! SL1 ---> Low-risk status: 1x-2x Leverage SL2 ---> Mid-risk status: 3x-4x Leverage (If there is just one SL on the chart, I suggest, low risk status) As you can see, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently forming a repetitive pattern. 📈 When the price pulls back to the identified resistance level, we can expect another bearish move, which could potentially drive the price down toward the 92K level. 📉 If the price drops below 92K, we may see a more significant decline into the 88K-84K range, possibly accompanied by a long shadow in a recent candle pattern. 🔍 👾Note: The setup is active but expect the uncertain phase as well. also movement lines drawn to predict future price reactions are relative and approximate. ➡️Entry Area: Yellow zone ⚡️TP: 96,779 95,247 93,254 🔴SL: 101,826 🧐The Alternate scenario: If the price stabilizes against the direction of the position, below or above the trigger zone, the setup will be canceled.
Short
by CrazyS
2025-01-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr bitcoin - Bearish. Yesterday’s bullish read correct and I would write it that way again. Bears took control of the market with the break below 101k and we just melted lower. We now have a perfect head & shoulders pattern with a target that aligns with my overall read and year end comment but confirmation will only be below 90000. The lower high 102718 was high enough and we could just go down from here. Buckle up crypto bros. comment: Nasty bull trap and we have an amazing bearish outside down bar. I expect 92000 next and maybe 90k. Can bulls reverse this again to go above 103k? 100k maybe but I highly doubt anything above that. The head & shoulders looks good but confirmation is only below 90k. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 90000 - 103000 bull case: Bulls need to stop the selling and trade back to 100k and go sideways to keep the market neutral. If bears continue tomorrow, most bulls won’t hold long and have to cover again and will only look to enter closer to 90k. Bulls don’t have too much going for them after the huge reversal bar today. Invalidation is below 90000. bear case: Bears need follow-through tomorrow and a retest of 93000 or lower. Since the market has been going sideways for 2 months, the odds of a breakout below are small. Bears see today’s selling strong enough for at least a second leg and a measured move would bring us to 90000. I will watch for intraday shorts near the 1h 20ema. Invalidation is above 103000. short term: Bears are in control again and want a second leg down to 89k - 93k. I want to see a pull-back to the 1h 20ema and a strong signal bar before I add to shorts. medium-long term: 75000 is my biggest target for now and until bears get there, any lower target is just unreasonable. My bias is bearish going into 2025 and I think the odds of a bigger leg down are good. current swing trade: Short since 98k. Want to see 90k next to take some profits and add again higher or on a strong break below 90k. trade of the day: Shorting the breakout below 101k was amazing.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by priceactiontds
Capital Shifts in Crypto: Liquidity, Corrections, and the FutureOn a growing market, each correction serves as a mechanism for capital redistribution. In the cryptocurrency sector, where the market is relatively small, profit-taking on major assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) has a significantly negative impact on less capitalized altcoins. Analogy with traditional markets Traditional financial markets follow similar principles. Here, Bitcoin can be compared to gold, while altcoins are akin to stocks or bonds. When positions in gold are closed, the fluctuations are less noticeable due to the market's greater liquidity and volume. However, stocks, with their lower capitalization, show significant volatility, leading to an equivalent increase in potential dollar gains. Depth and structure of the crypto market The crypto market still lacks depth, predominantly involving small-scale investment funds by global standards. Competition among expert traders and investors is limited, leading to low profitability or zero gain on bear markets, where professionals trade against each other, for instance, Wintermute traders against GSR traders. In traditional markets, where both professionals and retail investors participate, professionals have an advantage due to more variables. Liquidity and spread Both markets allow for earning on the spread, although currently, spreads are relatively small. The redistribution of liquidity, especially during market downturns, is driven by both psychological factors and the technical aspects of position closing, particularly when comparing futures trading with combined spot and futures trading. Indexation and synthetic assets The creation of indexes in the crypto sphere could be the next step. There are already examples like Reserve Rights (RSR), where real-world assets are tokenized to create stablecoins. Forming indexes similar to the S&P500 or US100 could combine crypto assets by similar characteristics, increasing liquidity and opening new investment avenues. However, this could lead to issues similar to those in 2007 in traditional markets, where "packages" included high-risk assets. Conclusion Implementing such tools might soften the liquidity redistribution effect for retail investors but could complicate things for funds and market makers, reducing their ability to buy assets at reduced prices. The cryptocurrency market is at the stage of mass adoption, and upon completion of this process, new forms of digital money may emerge. Written by Alexander Kostenich (WIDECHAR), Horban Brothers.
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.DLong
by horbanbrothers
Bitcoin Continues Consolidating Within Key RangeChart Analysis: Bitcoin remains in a long-term uptrend, supported by an ascending trendline (black line) and recently consolidating within a rectangular range near $96,000. 1️⃣ Ascending Trendline: The long-term trendline continues to act as dynamic support, underpinning Bitcoin's bullish structure. Traders may watch for price reactions near this trendline for potential bounce opportunities. 2️⃣ Key Range: Bitcoin is consolidating between $96,000 (support) and $110,000 (resistance). A breakout above $110,000 would confirm bullish momentum, while a break below $96,000 could signal downside risks. 3️⃣ Moving Averages: 50-day SMA (blue): Positioned near $91,000, providing short-term dynamic support. 200-day SMA (red): Rising around $70,000, confirming the long-term bullish trend. 4️⃣ Momentum Indicators: RSI: Hovering near 51, indicating neutral momentum after cooling off from overbought conditions. MACD: Momentum remains positive, but recent consolidation has led to a flattening trend in the MACD. What to Watch: Monitor the $96,000-$110,000 range for potential breakout opportunities. A breakout above $110,000 could target new highs, while a drop below $96,000 may test the ascending trendline or lower supports. Look for RSI or MACD divergences to confirm breakout direction. Bitcoin remains within a bullish structure, with the ascending trendline and moving averages providing key levels to follow. The consolidation phase offers a clear technical setup for the next directional move. -MW
FOREXCOM:BTCUSD
by FOREXcom
Expect ETHEREUM to start outperforming BITCOINOn this analysis we compare Bitcoin's last two Cycles to Ethereum's. The recent underperformance of ETH against BTC has got many worried but in our view, there is no reason for concern. This 'lagging' is something ETH did on its previous Cycle as well. While Bitcoin already broke to a new ATH in December 2020, Ethereum was still significantly under it. Once the break out happened, ETH outperformed BTC by double the rise to the Cycle's Top (+789% against +337%). As Ethereum is once more lagging but it is holding its 1week MA50, we expect to start outperforming Bitcoin again, which is leading with a break out. In our view the time to move to the 'undervalued' Ethereum is now. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TheCryptagon
7
1inch/UsdtBINANCE:1INCHUSDT $1inch/Usdt 📉 Current Price: $0.4000 📊 Support Level: $0.4303 (🛑 If it holds here, price may rise.) 🔼 Resistance Levels: • $0.500 🚪 (First resistance) • $0.553 🚧 (Second resistance) • $0.600 🎯 (Target if upward momentum continues) ❌ If support at $0.4303 doesn’t hold: ⬇️ Next Support Levels: • $0.3736 🔻 (First lower support) • $0.3143 🔻 (Second lower support) Not Financial Advice! Just an analysis for fun.
Long
by Wolftrader1337
BTC/USDT Pullback to Key SupportThe chart highlights Bitcoin's breakout from a symmetrical triangle formation, followed by a pullback to a critical support level. This price action indicates a period of consolidation before the next significant move. Key Observations 1. The breakout from the symmetrical triangle has propelled the price upward, signaling bullish momentum. 2. The area around $97,100 is a crucial support level where buyers may step in. 3. A breakdown below $97,100 could lead to further downside, indicating a continuation of the pullback. 4. If the price holds above this support, a strong bounce and continuation of the uptrend are expected. Strategic Implications Monitor the $97,100 level closely. A strong defense of this support could provide an opportunity for long positions, targeting the next resistance levels. Conversely, a confirmed break below $97,100 would warrant caution, as it may signal further downside. Patience and careful observation are essential to capitalize on the next move effectively.
by wsaetos
Bitcoin Roadmap!!!Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) is still moving in the Resistance zone($100,000-$98,000) . Compared to the previous analysis , I still have the opinion of correction on Bitcoin . Regarding Elliott wave theory , Bitcoin seems to have completed the main wave Y with the Ending Expanding Diagonal . Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks . Also, USDT.D% ( CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D ) is in a very sensitive zone . Given that USDT.D% is near the lower line of the descending channel , the support lines , and the support zone , I expect USDT.D% to trend higher and close to the Resistance zone in the coming hours , and the increase in USDT.D% can cause Bitcoin to decrease .👇 I expect Bitcoin to fall AFTER breaking the lower line of the Ending Expanding Diagonal. The First Target can be around $98,000 . ⚠️Note: If Bitcoin breaks the Resistance lines and Resistance zone($100,000-$98,000), we can hope for a further increase in Bitcoin.⚠️ Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $100,840-$100,000 Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $97,870-$97,000 Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $96,000-$95,000 🙏Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.🙏 Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame⏰. 🔔Be sure to follow the updated ideas.🔔 Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
8
Checkmate: Winging it is for birds, not traders♟️ Master the market with strategy, foresight, and just the right amount of sass. Alright, traders, let’s talk. What do chess grandmasters and top traders have in common? No, it’s not their love of mismatched socks or coffee strong enough to revive the dead ☕. It’s their ability to think three moves ahead while the rest of the world stares at the board wondering, “Is this checkers?” ♟️ Your Gut Isn’t Garry Kasparov In chess, a grandmaster doesn’t move a piece without thinking of how it’ll play out in the next ten moves. And you? Clicking Buy because your “gut” said so isn’t exactly a strategy. Unless your gut has a PhD in market analysis, maybe sit this one out and plan. Remember: sometimes you’ve gotta let a pawn (aka small loss) go to protect the king (aka your account). But nope, most traders are out here clinging to losing trades like they’re in a Nicholas Sparks movie. Spoiler alert: this isn’t a love story – it’s an iceberg. 🧊🚢 🤔 Hope Isn’t a Strategy Chess players anticipate every possible move. You, on the other hand, need to stop vibing your way through trades. 🌈 ✔️ Got a plan if the market tanks? ✔️ Got a plan if it spikes? ✔️ Got snacks for when both happen? 🍿 If you’re trading without a stop-loss, you’re basically playing chess blindfolded and hoping for the best. Bold, but not smart. 🧠 Don’t Let Your Brain Sabotage You Biggest opponent in trading? It’s you. That little voice whispering, “Double down, it’ll recover!” or “Stop-losses are for wimps.” That’s not strategy – it’s sabotage. 🎭 Learn to chill. Emotional moves in chess = disaster. Emotional trades in the market? Same thing, but with fewer pawns and way more pain. 🔑 Discipline = Winning Grandmasters aren’t magic. They’re disciplined. They put in the hours, study patterns, and show up every day. Traders? Same deal. Forget the mythical “perfect strategy.” It’s your discipline to execute that makes the difference. So, stop chasing meme stocks and remember: the market is your chessboard. Plan your moves, think ahead, and for the love of all things caffeinated, stop clinging to bad trades. 🖤
CRYPTO:BTCUSDEducation
by RoadToAMillionClub
BTC/USD : First SHORT, Then LONG! (READ THE CAPTION)Analyzing the #Bitcoin chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that the price continued its upward momentum as expected, achieving an impressive over 10% gain, reaching the $102,700 zone! However, due to hitting the supply zone of $101,300 to $102,800, Bitcoin experienced a correction and is currently trading around $100,600. After a potential retracement to the $98,700 - $99,600 range, we can anticipate renewed demand, leading to another bullish move. The potential targets are $102,850, $104,400, and $106,800. Stay tuned for further updates! Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by ArmanShabanTrading
4
MicroStrategy FEAT BTC $500 by 2025 Bitcoin Investment Strategy: MicroStrategy has heavily invested in Bitcoin, making it the largest corporate holder of the cryptocurrency. If Bitcoin's value appreciates significantly, as it has in past cycles, this could directly boost MicroStrategy's stock price due to the large unrealized gains on its balance sheet. Posts on X mention the company's Bitcoin holdings as a major influence on its stock performance. S&P 500 Inclusion: There's speculation that MicroStrategy could be included in the S&P 500, which would likely result in substantial capital inflows from index funds and ETFs. Analysts like Willy Woo have speculated that this could lead to $10-15 billion in inflows, potentially driving the stock price higher. This is discussed in web results where potential S&P 500 inclusion is seen as a catalyst for MSTR to reach $500. Accounting Rule Changes: New accounting standards from the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) effective from 2025 will allow MicroStrategy to report unrealized gains on its Bitcoin holdings, potentially boosting reported earnings and making the stock more attractive to investors. This change could qualify MicroStrategy for the S&P 500 if it reports positive earnings, as noted in several web results. Capital Raising and Shareholder Votes: MicroStrategy plans to raise significant capital for further Bitcoin purchases, with a shareholder vote to increase the number of authorized shares dramatically. This strategy, including the $42 billion capital plan, could fund more Bitcoin acquisition, potentially increasing the value of the company's assets. Discussions on X highlight this as a move that could lead to a significant run-up in stock price. Market Sentiment and Bitcoin Cycles: The stock market's perception of MicroStrategy as a Bitcoin proxy means that bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin often translates into gains for MSTR. If Bitcoin experiences another bull run, as some analysts predict, MicroStrategy's stock could follow suit, especially given its aggressive Bitcoin acquisition strategy. Leverage and Bitcoin Yield: MicroStrategy's use of leverage to increase its Bitcoin per share (BTC Yield) is another factor. By selling shares at a premium over net asset value (NAV) and using the proceeds to buy more Bitcoin, the company can reduce leverage while increasing its Bitcoin holdings per share, which could drive stock price appreciation. This strategy is highlighted in posts on X discussing MicroStrategy's unique approach to Bitcoin investment. Institutional Adoption of Bitcoin: If larger institutions or even governments start adopting Bitcoin as part of their reserves or investment strategy, this could elevate Bitcoin's price, directly benefiting MicroStrategy. There's mention of possible U.S. government involvement with Bitcoin, which could further fuel this scenario.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by NYRUNSGLOBAL
How to Analyze a Stock ? Key Questions to Ask Before You InvestShould I invest in this stock ? This is a common question investors face many times But where do you begin? What should you look for, and what pitfalls should you avoid? This guide will walk you through the essential steps to analyze a stock, focusing on the business itself rather than the stock chart. Since earnings per share (EPS) growth drives returns, it’s crucial to understand how revenue growth and margin expansion contribute over time. Before buying any stock, ask yourself these six critical questions: 1.Company: What does the business do? 2.Economics: How does it generate revenue? 3.Opportunities: What are the potential upsides? 4.Risks: What challenges could it face? 5.Financials: What do the numbers reveal? 6.Valuation: Is the price justified? 1.What’s the Business? - Mission: A clear mission drives long-term success. For example, Google’s mission, “to organize the world’s information and make it universally accessible and useful,” is simple yet powerful. Does the company’s mission align with a growing trend or an unmet need? - Leadership: Effective leadership, especially from founder-led teams or CEOs with a strong track record, often outperforms. Assess the team’s vision, execution skills, and employee approval ratings. - Products: Are the company’s offerings essential, innovative, or part of a growing market? Consider their uniqueness, potential obsolescence, and innovation history. 2.How Do They Make Money? - Revenue Mix: Is the company’s revenue diversified or reliant on a single product or customer? A diverse mix offers stability, while over-reliance can be risky. - Unit Economics: Examine profitability metrics like gross margin and operating margin. Where does the bulk of profit come from? - Key Metrics: Identify metrics like annual recurring revenue (ARR) for subscriptions or gross merchandise value (GMV) for e-commerce that best reflect the company’s performance trends. 3.What Could Go Right? - Market Growth: Does the company operate in a growing industry, such as AI or renewable energy? -Innovation: Look for ongoing R&D and a track record of successful product launches. -Moat Expansion: Assess the company’s competitive advantage, whether it’s a strong brand, proprietary technology, or cost leadership. 4. What Could Go Wrong? -Market Disruption: Is the company prepared for sudden changes, like new technologies or regulations? -Competition: Strong rivals can erode market share. Analyze customer reviews and competitor benchmarks. - Moat Erosion: A shrinking competitive edge—such as declining pricing power or poor retention—can signal trouble. 5.What Do the Numbers Say? - Profitability: Check revenue growth, gross margins, and net income for consistent improvements. - Solvency: Assess the balance sheet for debt-to-equity ratios, cash reserves, and financial stability. - Liquidity: Positive and consistent cash flow indicates sustainability and growth potential. 6.Is the Price Right? - Valuation Metrics: Use Price to Earnings (P/E), Price to Sales (P/S), or other relevant metrics depending on the company’s growth stage. Compare these to peers and market standards. -Investment Horizon: Longer investment timelines can justify higher valuations if growth potential exists. -Focus on Fundamentals: Valuation matters only if the business is strong. Avoid being tempted by low prices without underlying value. By breaking a company into these six dimensions, you can turn complex decisions into actionable insights. Start with the business fundamentals, evaluate opportunities and risks, and finish by assessing valuation. What stock will you analyze next? Let’s put this framework into action now
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by moonypto
MICROSTRATEGY a pyramid ponzi.Understanding the situation with MSTR can be quite complex. Many people recognize that MicroStrategy has been issuing convertible bonds at a 0% interest rate to purchase Bitcoin. This strategy tends to drive up both Bitcoin's price and the value of MSTR shares. As a result, the scheme appears to inflate continuously, placing the risk on bondholders. The only way for MSTR's stock price to keep rising is through the issuance of increasingly larger amounts of convertible debt; otherwise, the entire pyramid would collapse. It's understandable why Michael Saylor seems to be focusing more on shilling MSTR bonds instead of Bitcoin itself. Why would institutions invest in MSTR's convertible bonds at 0%? Many believe it's because they anticipate being able to convert these bonds into MSTR stock in five years at a predetermined price, potentially around $675, effectively giving them a premium-free call option. However, there is a hidden cost to this strategy: inflation. At first glance, this might seem like a poor investment choice—if one expects MSTR's value to rise, it would make more sense to buy the shares now rather than commit funds to a higher price in the future. Why would anyone engage in such a massive financial manoeuvre involving BILLIONS? The truth is, those purchasing the bonds are ACTUALLY indifferent to the rising stock value! Their primary interest lies in capitalizing on price fluctuations. Ultimately, a convertible bond functions as a CALL OPTION; thus, as the MSTR stock price experiences greater volatility, the premium on the call increases. Recently the value of these convertible bonds has surged by 170%. This is precisely why investors are unconcerned about interest rates or the actual conversion of the bonds—they have ZERO desire to convert! The reason? Issuing new shares would only dilute their holdings! All the rewards with none of the risks! But what happens if MSTR collapses? Bondholders will seize all the Bitcoin MSTR possesses, leaving shareholders with nothing but scraps! Can you fathom how deep this MSTR Ponzi scheme really is? The more you explore, the more mental acrobatics you need to perform to grasp the situation! Many believe that bond buyers are naive, but in reality, they are the sharpest players in the game, reaping the benefits without facing the risks! In the current climate, that’s the nature of volatility! It doesn’t matter if MSTR’s stock price fluctuates; they’re insulated from the fallout. Who do you think is betting against MSTR? It’s the bondholders, and their positions are secure! Ultimately, for someone to profit, someone else must incur a loss, and it won’t be the bondholders. This means that regular shareholders are poised for significant losses, as the primary force driving MSTR’s stock price is its own volatility. Once that volatility dissipates, we could see MSTR plummet below $100 a share! All those crypto enthusiasts will be left reeling, wondering how MSTR could possibly decline while Bitcoin’s value rises!!! What’s the main effect of these convertible bonds? They create volatility in the stock price, leading to wild swings up and down, just as we’re currently witnessing. What occurs when the volatility subsides? The stock price will plummet! Many people are misdirecting their focus on metrics, technical analysis, and listening to Michael Saylor's commentary on CNBC. Instead, they should be paying attention to the volatility of MSTR's stock price, as its decline will directly impact the stock's value. Don't be misled; even if MSTR falls below $300, it will still be overpriced and could potentially drop to under $100 per share due to the convertible bonds scheme. Claims from MSTR valuation sites that each share is backed by a certain amount of Bitcoin are misleading; the reality is that the shares are not backed by anything. The BONDHOLDERS are the ones who possess all the Bitcoin. There’s no such thing as a free lunch—someone has to bear the costs, and in MSTR's case, that burden will fall on the shareholders. You certainly don’t want to be left holding the bag when the music stops. It is important to maintain a clear perspective regarding cryptocurrencies; they should not be viewed as traditional investments, but rather as something more comparable to gambling. While you may have the advantage of being an expert poker player, the only way to truly win is to cash out your profits. Otherwise, you risk losing on MSTR and in the crypto market.
NASDAQ:MSTR
by BallaJi
47
Market Analysis: How to. Execute This Trade // MSTRNASDAQ:MSTR Over the past 2-3 months, MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR) has shown significant growth, primarily driven by the rise in Bitcoin’s value. The company holds a substantial amount of Bitcoin on its balance sheet, which strongly influences its stock price performance. Key Highlights: 1. Stock Performance: • As of now, MSTR trades at $379.09, reflecting a notable increase over recent months. • Its strong performance correlates with the upward trend in Bitcoin prices. 2. Technical Analysis: • The stock recently broke out of a rectangle pattern, signaling a potential rise toward the $525 level. • However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates overbought conditions, suggesting the possibility of a short-term pullback. 3. Analyst Opinions: • Analysts remain optimistic, with a consensus of “Buy” or “Overweight.” • The average price target is above the current trading level, pointing to further upside potential. Considerations: While MSTR has been performing robustly, it’s important to note the volatility associated with its heavy exposure to Bitcoin. Investors should weigh the risks tied to both the stock and the broader cryptocurrency market. How to execute this trade: We notice how the upward trend seems to have temporarily stopped, giving way to a bearish phase. The stock remains highly overvalued and very volatile, so a drop of 40–50% does not necessarily indicate a long-term trend reversal but simply a pause in a bull run that has been ongoing since 2022! On November 11, the stock experienced a rise of 23% in a single day, leaving a gap open. Subsequently, the rise was accompanied by a 97% increase in just 13 days, followed by a bearish phase, a lateral phase, another bearish phase, and now a rebound. We could even consider the last two movements as a new lateral zone. Now, let’s analyze the movements of the stock in the most recent highlighted period in greater detail. We observe that, after breaking below the lateral range, the stock formed a well-defined downward channel. We obviously had two choices: to take advantage of the lateral zone by going both long and short: Respectively: 430–450 Short & 360–350 Long. However, this was a rather complex trade because the lateral range was very wide and volatile (34%). The second option was to wait for a long entry. The gap in this case is an excellent buying zone; in many cases, gaps need to be filled, and when this happens, they provide great opportunities. In this particular case, we are talking about a gap that triggered a 97% rise, so the chances of a rebound are very high. Using the Bar Replay, we see that initially the stock approaches our entry zone but doesn’t enter, closing slightly above it. This means we need to remain vigilant in the following days and monitor for a good entry opportunity. The next day, the stock rises by 8%—our hopes for a trade begin to waver, and we risk succumbing to FOMO. However, the only way to be consistently profitable is to always follow the plan. Always! Later, the stock drops, granting us an entry. In hindsight, it’s easy to say, “I would have entered here,” but this would have been a challenging trade because the gap was only partially filled and for a short time. A correct entry should have been between 286 and 276. We notice that the entry was very difficult and quick—so let’s assume we didn’t manage to enter . The next day, the stock opens with a significant upward gap (3.4%). At this point, we have two signals: the stock touched our zone and began to rise, and the buying zone was a previous gap. Now, the stock opens again with a gap, signaling that these opportunities are often leveraged to push the stock upward. We adjust our entry a bit higher, giving the trade more room to breathe since the previous setup didn’t work out. In this case, we carefully observe the downward trendline above us and use it as a signal to exit the trade or reduce the position size to limit losses. If it’s not broken, we know what to do. We let the trade run and see how the trendline is broken, followed by a very strong upward move that brings us to profit in just two sessions. This is “How to Execute This Trade.”
NASDAQ:MSTREducation
by TIMINGTRADE
Would you sell against BTC?After BTCUSD reached its All Time High (ATH) of 108,451 on Dec 17th, it dropped strongly to the support area of 91,600. In the first week of the year, BTCUSD has bounced off the support to trade up to the 101,900 area again. Which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. At this point, the TSRI MACD is indicating the potential for a crossover to the downside. However, if the price stays above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level AND the bullish trendline, further upside is likely! Would be looking to buy at value rather than trying to short it down.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by JinDao_Tai