btc fear and capitulation Stay optimistic about CRYPTOCAP:BTC without being afraid and capitulated because the local top is unseen and there is a long runway ahead!
Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)
BTCUSDT Upside potentialThe BTC/USDT market is currently consolidating above the 80,000 level after breaking below February's low. Recently, a large weekly doji candle has emerged, signaling ongoing sideways movement. At present, the price remains within this week's trading range.
From a broader perspective, price action appears to be narrowing, forming a falling wedge pattern. With the market consolidating just below the downward trendline, a potential breakout above this level could signal further upside momentum. If the price manages to close above last week's high, it could lead to the formation of a solid inverse head and shoulders pattern, reinforcing the possibility of an upward extension. The next key target lies at the resistance zone around 88,000
TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #36👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro!
Let's dive into the Bitcoin analysis and key crypto indices. In this analysis, as usual, I want to review the futures triggers for the New York session.
⏳ 1-hour timeframe
In the 1-hour timeframe, as you can see, after breaking 83806, a downward movement occurred but then it moved upwards again, now forming a box between 82066 and 83806.
✔️ Today we have triggers for both long and short positions because the price has formed a good structure for opening positions, and since it's the beginning of the week, volume can enter the market.
🎲 We also have an ascending trendline that originated from the bottom at 77598, which the price has hit several times. If this trendline breaks, the price can start a new downward leg.
🔼 For long positions, our first trigger is 83806, which may coincide with an RSI of 54.70. However, this trigger is risky and the primary trigger for a breakout is 84817.
📉 For short positions, a good trigger was formed yesterday at 82066. Breaking this area could initiate the next downward leg to 80105. This trigger is also a trendline break trigger, and breaking this area could start the next downward leg to 80105. The primary trigger for this is also the break of 80105.
👑 BTC.D Analysis
Let's move on to the Bitcoin dominance analysis. As you can see, dominance was rejected from the ceiling of 62.03 and moved downward. Currently, dominance has again reached 61.53.
💥 If 61.53 breaks, dominance can move downwards and conversely, if 62.03 breaks, the price can move upwards.
📊 Overall, a range box has been formed again, and breaking the floor or ceiling of this box can determine the next price leg.
📅 Total2 Analysis
Moving on to the Total2 analysis, this index rose from 1.01 yesterday and is now moving towards 1.04.
💫 Today's long trigger is the break of 1.04, but we need to wait until the price reacts to this area once to get the exact resistance number and open a position with its breakout.
🔽 For short positions, you can enter a very good and suitable short position with a break of 1.01.
📅 USDT.D Analysis
The dominance of Tether has formed a large range box between 5.28 and 5.56, and currently, the price is near the bottom of the box. There is also a resistance line at 5.43 within the box.
⚡️ Today, for confirming a downward trend in dominance, you can use the break of 5.28, and for an upward trend, you can confirm with the break of 5.43.
❌ Disclaimer ❌
Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel.
Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
BITCOIN Is this the 'most normal' Cycle of them all ??This is not the first time we use a Convergence/ Divergence approach to Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Cycles and certainly not the last one. On the previous one, it helped us to succesffuly predict the end of 2022 bottom but what we couldn't anticipate is how smooth the new/ current Cycle 5 (orange trend-line) would be.
As the title says, this is probably the 'most normal' Cycle of them all, as BTC has been trading within a Channel Up (orange) since the Bear Cycle's bottom more than 2 years ago.
To get a better understanding of this claim, we compare Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Cycles from their previous top to the next one (with the exception of the first), on this complete mapping analysis, having them all displayed on top of another: Cycle 1 (green trend-line), Cycle 2 (red), Cycle 3 (blue), Cycle 4 (black) and the current one Cycle 5 (orange).
** Diminishing Returns **
As you see, first of all, this showcases the Theory of Diminishing Returns, which suggests that as the market grows and higher adoption is achieved, BTC will show less and less returns in each Cycle. Every Cycle Top has been lower from the previous one.
** Cycle Convergence - Divergence **
Secondly, all Cycles particularly during their Bear Phase and for a short time after, tend to follow a common path. The illustration on this analysis is very clear as it starts with each Cycle's Bear Phase and you can see that when they diverge, they converge again quickly. The most recent Bear Phase was not surprisingly as long as Cycle 4 and almost Cycle 3, which was to be expected as the market has shown an amazing degree of symmetry in the past 10 years. Note that this is also the model that helped as determine very early in 2023 that Cycle 3 would be the best fit for the new Cycle in terms of price action and without a doubt, BTC has been mostly replicating that Cycle.
** What's next for the current Cycle? **
If we compare the current Cycle (5) with Cycle 3 we can see that the Convergence - Divergence Model is holding. So far when Cycle 5 converged, it immediately diverged. And this is exactly what it has been doing since the December High and the marginal January All Time High (ATH). It has started to diverge significantly from Cycle 3 so what the recent pull-back to the 1W MA50 achieved is to normalize it and is about to touch it.
Now that the price hit the bottom of its +2 year Channel Up, we expect to rise, which will achieved convergence and contact with both Cycles 3 and 4, which is what they both did in their last 150 days of their respective Bull Cycles. Technically, this can take Cycle 5 to around $150k.
As we've first mentioned in the crypto space, regarding the last Bear Market being the 'smoothest' in history, we can securely say now that the current Bull Cycle is also the 'most normal' ever.
So what do you think? Does this Cycle regression model offer any useful conclusion as to where Bitcoin might top and if so, is this Cycle indeed the 'most normal' in the history? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin - Will Bitcoin Go Up Again?!Bitcoin is trading below the EMA50 and EMA200 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. The continuation of Bitcoin’s downward trend and its placement in the demand zone will provide us with the opportunity to buy it again.
As long as Bitcoin is above the drawn trend line, we can think about buying transactions. The continued rise of Bitcoin will also lead to testing of selling transactions from the supply zone. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and observing capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy within the demand range.
In recent days, Bitcoin’s price has experienced a significant decline, reaching its lowest level in several weeks. This price drop coincides with growing concerns about a potential economic recession in the U.S. and the impact of Donald Trump’s recent statements on financial markets. As a result, many investors have shifted towards safer assets.
Analysts believe that Trump’s remarks have intensified market volatility, leading to increased selling pressure across financial markets. Consequently, riskier assets like Bitcoin have also seen a decline in price.
Given the uncertainty in the market and doubts surrounding the future of the U.S. economy, experts predict that Bitcoin’s price fluctuations will persist. While some investors see this drop as a buying opportunity, the lack of clarity on upcoming economic policies has heightened overall risk.
On March 14, Bitcoin broke its long-standing 12-year ascending support trend against gold (XAU). A well-known analyst, NorthStar, has warned that if Bitcoin remains below this level for a week or more, it could signal the end of its 12-year bullish trend.
This breakdown occurred as spot gold prices surged by 12.80% since the beginning of the year, reaching a new record high above $3,000 per ounce. In contrast, Bitcoin—often referred to as “digital gold”—has fallen 11% so far in 2025.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, who previously predicted that Bitcoin would drop below $80K, now believes its decline will likely bottom out around $70K.
Meanwhile, reports indicate that Russia is increasingly using cryptocurrencies in its oil trade, which is valued at $192 billion. Digital assets are facilitating the conversion of yuan and rupees into rubles, streamlining transactions.
According to sources, Russian oil companies have been utilizing Tether, Bitcoin, and Ethereum in their trades.While digital assets currently represent a small portion of the oil trade, their adoption is growing rapidly.
Bitcoin's local perspective 17.03.2025In Friday's analysis "How Trump's Policy Will Impact the Crypto Market", we presented a bearish model for the medium-term perspective👇
Today, our key focus is on the $78,300 level (the 4th point of our model), which serves as significant support.
It's important to note the presence of an unfilled gap on CME at the $85,905 level ($85,943 in index terms)👇
We assess the probability of closing this gap in the near term as high – either from current positions or after retesting the $78,300 level.
How will we act?
If price moves toward $85,943 from current levels, we plan to partially close our #ETH position that was accumulated during the March 11 decline.
In the scenario of a retest of $78,300, we will consider opening a long position on #BTC with a target of $85,943.
BTC, seed at 78k.. we are goin for new ATH again this year! BTC, corrected heavily after tapping a parabolic ATH high at 108K levels which warranted a mid term trim down -- which is healthy and sustainable.
Price overextended to unforeseen numbers to 70k range to tap 77k levels. An exact precision tap of 61.8 FIB extension zone -- which replicated the same scenario during the 50k era pre-surge season before the massive rally to 100k. Both are bouncing off in this 61.8 fib area with laser accuracy precision which just manifested last night.
We are now at the rare accumulation zone signal -- a pre surge basing area where long term buyers converge after that 61.8 fib perfect tap.
The diagram above is already showing hint of initial shift of the current metrics. The visual clarity of the signal is day and night. You can decipher it easily. This signal never missed since 15k era. Batting average is 4 out of 4.
Ideal seeding was the lowest at 77k.
Target: ATH retap at 108k
Mid target 120-140k levels.
TAYOR.
Trade safely.
levels to watch I've been short on BTC ever since it crossed the 100k mark, with an initial target around 75k. The markets briefly dipped below 79k and then rallied back, struggling to hold above 95k but staying below 78k.
For now, it seems to be trading within a channel. My focus remains on the 75k target, but if the price breaks above 85k, we could see the market eyeing the 108k level again. Time will tell where things head from here.
17/03/25 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $85,306.40
Last weeks low: $76,622.98
Midpoint: $80,964.69
It's FOMC week again! Last week it was CPI week and inflation numbers came in under forecast signaling the Tradfi market sell-off and implementation of tariffs have at least had a positive impact on the consumer price index, a 2.8% print 0.1% lower than forecast. As this relates to FOMC the forecast is a non mover with interest rates staying at 4.5%.
However this does not necessarily mean that FOMC will be a non event in terms of the markets, volatility is always expected and with a suspected Trump insider opening a $380m 40x short position on BTC with a liquidation price of $86,600. I expect this price to be hit at some point this week purely because CT is targeting this account that has had a perfect 8/8 trade record to stop hunt it, I think FOMC could proved the volatility to do it.
The general structure of BTC as a whole despite this stop hunt narrative is bearish, after losing $91k support and a retest confirming the level as new resistance structurally it makes sense to revisit FWB:73K to retest it as support. This would be horrible for the broader altcoin market that has suffered greatly so far this year but it would eliminate the need to fill the FVG in the future.
This week I am keeping a close eye on that stop hunt and FOMC as I feel that will dictate if we retest $91K or $73K.
Bitcoin under 40k? Possible, but is this also probable?In life, anything is possible , and when it comes to crypto, everything is possible .
But, as I mentioned in my educational post yesterday, there’s a big difference between what is possible and what is probable.
In this article, I want to analyze the possibility of Bitcoin dropping below $40,000 and more importantly, what would need to happen for this scenario to shift from just possible to truly probable.
________________________________________
BTC — From All-Time High to Distribution?
If we look at the Bitcoin chart, we notice that after the first all-time high very close to $100,000 at the end of November, the market began a consolidation phase.
Although we saw two more all-time highs — one around $108,000 in mid-December and another near $110,000 in January — the entire structure from late November to late February appears to be a distribution pattern rather than a healthy continuation.
Once Bitcoin broke below $90,000, we can consider this distribution phase complete, with a target for short positions around $75,000 — a level I’ve highlighted in my previous posts.
________________________________________
Long-Term Logarithmic Chart — Diminishing Returns and the Bigger Picture
Looking at the long-term logarithmic chart, we can see a clear pattern of diminishing returns:
• The first major leg up, starting in late 2011, was approximately 600x and lasted about two years, followed by a correction.
• The next leg was 100x, spanning four years, followed by another correction.
• Then, a 20x rally, which lasted just over a year.
• Finally, the most recent leg up has been around 7x.
What’s crucial here is that returns are decreasing and, even more importantly, the last leg up looks more like an ascending channel than a parabolic move like in previous cycles.
________________________________________
The Significance of the Ascending Channel
This ascending channel is not unusual — the market has matured, and big players are now involved, reducing volatility.
However, ascending channels on the long-term often signal potential reversals, rather than continuation.
________________________________________
What Would Make $40,000 Probable?
Now, let’s address the real question: What would need to happen for Bitcoin to drop to $40,000?
Zooming in on the logarithmic chart, it becomes evident that the $72,000 - $75,000 zone is a major support confluence.
If this area is broken — meaning a weekly candle closes below this level — the scenario of BTC dropping toward $40,000 becomes probable.
The target zone I’m watching in this case is $32,000 - $36,000, a strong historical support that is clearly visible on higher timeframes.
________________________________________
Conclusion — Watch the Key Levels, Not What you Hope
To conclude:
• Bitcoin dropping to those extreme levels is possible, but not yet probable.
• Probabilities will shift only if key support levels are broken — specifically $72k-$75k.
• The market has matured, cycles are changing, and returns are diminishing, so expecting a repeat of past parabolic runs may not be realistic.
• As traders and investors, we must focus on the charts and key levels, not on hopium and hype.
88K is not excluded but not granted as wellMorning folks,
So, we set for 85K sell and it worked. Downside reaction happened, but still, we call you to move stops to breakeven for some case.
The problem that we see is the market behavior. We see it not natural for normal bearish market. BTC stands stubbornly around K-resistance, not showing normal downside extension.
Our scenario of downside continuation from ~85K area is not broken yet, it is valid, and maybe everything will happen as we've suggested initially.
But we see the risk in the way of market behavior. It could lead to more extended upside bounce in the way of upside AB=CD pattern right to 88k resistance .
It means that if you already have bearish positions - move stops to breakeven. If you don't - do not take the new once for awhile. Or, at least, you could take but not more than 25-30% of your normal lot.
Our bearish scenario remains valid until market stands under 85.1K spike (because this is bearish reversal session on daily chart) and below 85.5K resistance in general. Upside breakout means an action to 88K.
Since we do not have the breakout it, I mark our update as "bearish", but we warned you... Take care.
GOLD H1 Update: Bullish Outlook BUY DIPS by ProjectSyndicate🏆 Gold Market Highlights (March 2025)
📊 Technical Outlook
🔸Bullish OUTLOOK
🔸Broke out and set new ATH
🔸Strong UPTREND: Sequence of Higher Lows
🔸Recommend to BUY DIPS 2925/2950 USD
🔸Price Target BULLS: 3050 USD - 3100 USD
📈 Historic Milestone Achieved
🏅 Gold Futures Surpass $3,000
🔥 Gold prices hit an all-time high, closing above $3,000 ATH
🚀 Major breakout in the precious metals market!
📊 Analyst Perspectives
🔮 Continued Bullish Sentiment
📉 Both Wall Street & Main Street expect further gains beyond $3,000.
💡 Analysts see upside momentum continuing in the coming weeks.
🌍 Market Dynamics
⚡ Factors Driving the Rally
🌎 Global trade tensions & geopolitical risks pushing investors toward gold.
📌 Safe-haven demand surging amid uncertainty.
⏳ Historical Context
📜 Comparisons to the 1980 Bull Run
🔄 Parallels drawn between the current rally and the historic 1980 surge.
❓ Can gold repeat history and extend its gains even further?
🏦 Global Demand Trends
🇨🇳 China’s Record Gold ETF Inflows
📈 Massive inflows into gold ETFs in China, signaling strong demand.
💰 Jewelry demand expected to stabilize as the economy recovers.
🏦 Investor Behavior
🎯 Increased Attention Amid Uncertainty
🏛️ Investors shifting focus to gold as a hedge against economic instability.
💎 Gold’s safe-haven status reaffirmed, attracting more institutional buyers.
📢 Final Takeaway:
🔹 Gold is shining brighter than ever! 🌟
🔹 Expect volatility, but long-term outlook remains bullish. 💹
🔹 Keep an eye on key resistance & support levels. 🔍
Bitcoin Is Under Bearish PressureHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring BTCUSDT for a selling opportunity around 86k zone, Bitcoin is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 86k support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
BTC USD UpdateWe've seen massive news in the crypto space lately, yet the price absorbs buys and pushes lower week after week. The logical explanation is that they need to drive the price down to buy massive orders at a cheaper price. We don't close our spot trades; we remain overall bullish on these coins. So, we're in scalping mode, filling new spot orders as the price drops. We're confident it will go up sooner or later. Currently, we're in a bearish price range, and liquidity has built up heavily beneath the daily fractals. Therefore, we're focusing on scalps, trading in and out within the range. As of now, the range high is 95,128.88, and the low is 76,555.00. Let's see what happens.
BTC Bitcoin Technical Rebound Despite Whale Short Position !If you haven`t sold this recent top on BTC:
Now Bitcoin (BTC) has recently pulled back, but signs are emerging that a technical rebound could be imminent.
A large crypto investor, or whale, has reportedly opened a 40x leveraged short position for over 4,442 BTC (valued at over $368 million), effectively betting on a near-term price drop. However, this appears to be more of a short-term, low-volume trade rather than a sustained bearish position.
Given the high leverage involved, the whale will likely seek to close the position soon with a modest profit rather than holding it as a long-term directional bet. Weekend trading volumes tend to be lower, which could contribute to short-term price weakness — but once the position is closed, buying pressure could return, fueling a recovery.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently near key support levels, with momentum indicators like the RSI signaling oversold conditions. Historically, similar setups have led to sharp rebounds as short covering and renewed bullish sentiment drive prices higher.
My price target for Bitcoin is $97,500 by the end of the year, which would represent a recovery of approximately 15-20% from current levels. If the whale closes the short position and broader market sentiment stabilizes, Bitcoin could quickly regain upward momentum toward this target.
Bitcoin Deviation From Long Term TrendBitcoin weekly close divided by the 400 week SMA (close).
Incredibly precise linearity with the last two market cycle tops.
Of note is this metric's capture of a single maxima last cycle and a similar peak happening currently.
This might not be a market cycle top, but caution is called for here.
Scallop (SCA) Potential 200x Gains by next bull run
Current Market Overview:
Current Price: $0.07
Market Cap: $8M
Target Market Cap: $200M+
Potential Growth: 25x - 200x
Showing strong accumulation signals, indicating that most weak hands have already exited. With whales now in control, the price action suggests an imminent breakout in the coming bull run.
Key Observations:
✅ Deep Accumulation Phase: The price has been suppressed for a long time, suggesting all early holders have been flushed out.
✅ Whale Accumulation: With fewer retail traders, whales can now dictate price action, leading to a controlled rally.
✅ Bull Market Catalyst: If the Bitcoin cycle and altcoin season play out as expected, SCLP could experience parabolic growth.
Price Targets Based on Market Structure:
TP1: $0.25 → Initial breakout level (6.5x from current price)
TP2: $0.60 → Strong resistance (15x)
TP3: $6.00 → Major psychological level (85x)
TP4: $28.00+ → Full bull cycle potential (400x+)
Market Cap Projections:
At $1.75 (25x Growth): ~$200M market cap
At $6.00 (85x Growth): ~$700M market cap
At $28.00 (400x Growth): ~ SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:3B market cap
Bitcoin’s Battlefield: Support, Resistance and Trade SetupsBitcoin’s price has been showing signs of a sustained downtrend after forming a double top pattern. The recent action, combined with low volume and failure to breach key resistance zones, points to a likely retest of lower levels. Over the weekend, the price couldn’t break past the 85K resistance, and the low trading volume around this level suggests that buyer interest is waning.
6H TF Chart:
Big Picture vs. Short-Term Action
On a higher timeframe (6H), my indicator neatly outlines the bear market of 2022 and the bull market that started in early 2023—when the “cloud” turned green, signaling a shift in momentum. The cloud's lower boundary is currently at $73,364, which is key. Imo, holding above 70K is critical for keeping that bullish vibe alive.
1H TF Chart:
Switching over to the 1H chart, the picture shows a bearish structure. The upper resistance around 95K (which aligns with the yearly open near $93,455.85) is proving a solid resistance. The anchored VWAP from the all-time high also sits right at this level, adding more weight to the resistance. Bulls need to clear this yearly open to signal a true recovery.
Key Levels & Confluence Zones
1.) Upper Resistance – 93K to 95K:
The 95K zone aligns closely with the yearly open ($93,455.85) and the anchored VWAP from the all-time high, both acting as resistance.
Daily moving averages (62 EMA at ~$91,316 and 62 SMA at ~$94,900) provide further confluence.
Additional resistance between 85K-86K.
2.) Critical Support – 73K to 70K Zone:
The lower edge of the cloud on the 6H timeframe sits around 73K.
The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement (from the low at $15,473.78 to the all-time high at $109,354) is at $73,492, while the 0.618 retracement (from $49,217 to the all-time high) is around $72,205.
Moving Averages on Weekly Chart: The weekly 62 EMA ($72,919) and 62 SMA ($71,590) align well with this support region.
Additional Support: A bullish monthly order block at $71,320 adds another layer of confluence.
Psychological Importance: A hold above 70K is critical to maintaining bullish momentum.
3.) Monthly Open – $83,385.74:
This level serves as a pivot: price is currently hovering below it. A reclaim by bulls would be a positive sign for higher price action, while a rejection reinforces the bearish setup.
Trade Setups
Long Trade Setup:
Entry: Consider laddering in between 75K and 70K as the price retests support.
Take Profit: Aim for the monthly open (~84K) initially, and if support holds and flips, a move toward 90K could be considered.
Stop Loss: Set below 70K to protect against a further downturn.
Short Trade Setup:
Entry: A short setup can start at the monthly open, using a laddering approach between 84K and about 86.9K.
Take Profit: Target the previous low or 74K.
Stop Loss: Place just above 87K to keep risk in check.
Thank you for taking the time to read through this technical analysis. I hope it provides valuable insights for your trading decisions. Happy trading!
Bitcoin's left translated cycle - new lowsLet’s analyze both Cycle Market theories separately:
60-Day Cycle Status
Bitcoin printed a new cycle low on February 28. While many expected a rebound, it carved another low a week later, leading into a left-translated cycle (price trends downward for over half the cycle). We’re now on day 16, hovering just above the $78,000 low. Further downside is likely in coming weeks.
Multi-Timeframe Cycle Breakdown
2-Week Cycle: Will dip below 20 by Monday’s close, marking the start of accumulation (long-term oversold conditions).
1-Week Cycle: Broken below 20 and stuck there for two months – a reversal is imminent, signaling mid-term upside.
3-Day Cycle: Also below 20, confirming short-term bullish momentum.
1-Day Cycle: Topping above 80, hinting at a brief pullback soon.
Consensus : Both theories suggest a rally toward the 60-Day Cycle high (days 20-30), aligning with the 3-Day Cycle peak. However, we may see one final dip when the 3-Day Cycle resets to 20 before the bull run resumes.
Bitcoin: 80K For Higher Low Long This Week.Bitcoin has retraced off the of the 76K to 78K AREA and established a double bottom formation (see arrows). I specifically mentioned this in my previous article and talked about it further during my most recent stream. While a bear flag formation IS now present, which implies weakness on the horizon, I anticipate a higher low support around the 80K area this week (see illustration). If it breaks, then 76K should be watched for another double bottom or failed low formation which offers attractive price points for swing trade long opportunities.
This is a wild environment because we have tons of unexpected news constantly affecting the market while at the same time the highest seasonal volume (compared to August). This means moves will be BIG on both sides of the market, people will OVER react AND opinions will be more costly than usual. The first step to navigating such an environment effectively as a swing trader is to FOCUS on LEVELS and NOT news. No matter what the news is, either a level is going to be respected or its not. By focusing on what the herd is not, you can gain an advantage on the market, even if its brief.
Along with that, if you understand how to use dollar cost averaging effectively in this environment, you can start a position slightly earlier while waiting for confirmation before you add. An example of this is while watching for test of 80K, you buy a small position which you can take pain on, which means a much wider than usual stop. IF confirmation appears, you add. While it is possible that after the add the market goes against you, the PROBABILITY of the location and formation FAVORS a positive outcome more. In cases like this it is worth the risk. If 80K breaks without any confirmation, you are still small and you lose less than you normally would because of the adjusted size.
When market sentiment reaches extremes, THIS is when you want to pay CLOSE attention, especially during BEARISH extremes. In order for a market to reach attractive prices, mews typically needs to be negative. During such times, traders tend to avoid the market because the market looks "bad" yet, these same traders buy aggressively at the WORST prices, typically the highs when everything looks "great". One of my long time followers during my stream mentioned he was interested in buying, but only taking small bites because things looked so bearish. My response was that I usually suggest small bites at highs, and right now we are no where near the highs, so slightly greater risk can be justified at these prices for swing trades and investing.
Assuming risk requires confidence. What gives me such confidence is being able to gauge potential risk through analyzing price structure and levels. Wave counts are very helpful in this regard and help me shape reasonable expectations. In this context, Bitcoin at 76K MAY be the Wave 4 bottom. As long as 65K is not touched, a Wave 4 bottom can otherwise be established somewhere between 76K and 66K if 76K breaks. This will go against ALL of the bearish sentiment required to push prices to such levels. Navigating this effectively means you will have to put your contrarian hat on. Pay attention to the levels and confirmations, not what people are saying.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) – Potential Bullish BreakoutCurrent Market Overview:
Price: $83,295
24h Change: -1.24% (-$1,043.43)
Exchange: Binance (2-Day Timeframe)
Technical Breakdown:
Support Levels:
38.2% Fibonacci Retracement: ~$77,262 – This level has acted as a significant support area.
Trendline Support: Bitcoin is currently bouncing off a key ascending trendline that has been respected since mid-2023.
Major Fibonacci Support: Lower retracement levels at $67,346 (50%), $57,430 (61.8%), and $50,539 (70%) indicate potential deeper corrections if the trendline breaks.
Resistance Levels:
Key Resistance at $106,183 - $109,588: A breakout above this zone could trigger a rally toward new all-time highs.
Psychological Level at $100,000: A critical milestone for BTC that could act as temporary resistance.
Bullish Scenario:
If Bitcoin maintains support above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and trendline, a potential breakout above $109,588 could push prices toward $130,000.
The upward projection aligns with historical price action and Fibonacci extensions.
Bearish Scenario:
A break below $77,262 could lead to further downside, with possible retracements to $67,346 (50%) or lower levels like $50,539 (70%).
The long-term trendline breakdown would be a major bearish signal.
Conclusion & Strategy:
Short-Term: Look for confirmation of support at $77,262 before entering long positions.
Mid-Term: If BTC breaks $109,588 with volume confirmation, a bullish rally toward $130,000 is likely.
Risk Management: A drop below $77,000 could invalidate the bullish setup, prompting caution.
🚀 Bullish Outlook Above $109,588 | ⚠️ Caution Below $77,000
SOL: Current SituationYou asked, and we delivered:
Solana (SOL) is trading at $129, navigating a volatile phase amid a broader crypto market downturn, with the total market cap down 4.4% in the last 24 hours. Sentiment is mixed: some traders eye a potential cup-and-handle pattern for a bullish breakout, while others flag oversold conditions and bearish signals. Rumors of a Solana ETF add speculation, though unconfirmed. For now, SOL’s price action hinges on key support and resistance levels.
Technical Indicators and Key Levels
Short-Term (1-Hour Chart):
Support: $125 (critical), $110
Resistance: $140, $150
Indicators: RSI near oversold (~30), MACD bearish. A break above $140 with volume could target $150, but a drop below $125 risks $110.
Long-Term (Weekly Chart):
Support: $125, $90
Resistance: $140, $180
A hold above $125 could set up a rally to $180 if the cup-and-handle pattern confirms. Below $125, a deeper correction to $90 is possible.
Potential Scenarios
Bullish Case: Hold $125, break $140 with volume → target $150 (short-term), $180 (long-term).
Bearish Case: Break below $125 → test $110 (short-term), $90 (long-term).
Volume is key, watch for spikes to confirm moves.
Broader Context and Tips
SOL’s long-term outlook is promising due to its fast blockchain and ecosystem growth, but short-term risks loom. External factors like US inflation data or ETF news could sway the market. Traders should use tight stops, focus on $125 support, and stay flexible. Long-term investors should monitor $125 as a critical floor for bullish continuation.
Solana ($SOLUSD) - Monthly Demand InboundQuick TA for Solana $SOL. Many cryptos are at inflection points and will likely break higher or roll over from current prices (I think a move down is more likely, per long-term charts, and am hoping this happens for the sake of buying opportunities). Solana, like many other cryptos, has failed to develop meaningful 1D bullish momentum (RSI holding below 50). Should COINBASE:SOLUSD get another leg down, I'll be watching its behavior as it enters lower demand zones. 101.75-78.87 = monthly demand; 74.85-51.37 = weekly demand, but there are also buy areas higher. If Solana trades lower and approaches the aforementioned levels, use LTFs for signs of exhaustion/downtrend reversal. Personally, I wouldn't use "set-and-forget" buy limit orders; higher-beta cryptos may keep selling off until majors bottom/reverse and/or prices might not trade low enough to hit your limit price. I prefer more of a "hands-on" approach to trading, but to each their own.
On the road, so truncated analysis. Will update when I can. Thank you for your interest and let me know what you think!
Jon
@JHartCharts
