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Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)

Phemex Analysis #80: Can Bitcoin Hold $100k?Bitcoin’s breakout above the $100,000 mark on May 8, 2025—its highest level since early January—reflects renewed risk-on sentiment across global markets, supported by easing U.S.-China tension and expectations of favorable crypto regulation. Spot ETF flows have also played a pivotal role: U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated over $1 billion in net inflows this month, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading demand, underpinning liquidity in the $100k zone. Despite the enthusiasm, trading volumes on leading exchanges have shown signs of plateauing, hinting at cautious engagement from larger players. Possible Scenario Support Analysis 1. $100,000 Psychological Support After initially spiking to $105,784, BTC retreated to hover just above $100k, which has transitioned into a crucial support level. A decisive hold here would confirm buyer conviction at round-number thresholds. $97,000 Major Technical Floor: Beneath six figures, the $97,000 region—previously a resistance zone in April—now offers strong demand, reinforced by the convergence of the 50- and 100-day moving averages. $92,000 Secondary Support: Should broader market risk aversion emerge, traders could see a retracement back to $ 92K, where on-chain data indicates accumulation by long-term holders. This level aligns with the 200-day moving average, often cited as a bear-market safeguard. 2. ETF-Driven Cushion Spot ETF inflows continue to absorb sell-side pressure, potentially dampening volatility around support levels. Historical data shows ETFs acted as a buffer during the March sell-off, suggesting they may again prevent sharp dives if BTC dips towards $90k–$100k. Resistance Analysis 1. $105,000 Near-Term Cap BTC peaked at approximately $105,784 on May 12, encountering supply from short-term profit-takers. A close above this region would target the early-2025 all-time high near $109,917. 2. $109,917 All-Time High Surpassing the January ATH at $109k remains a key objective for bulls. However, historical patterns reveal increasingly subdued momentum on successive tests of this level, indicating potential exhaustion if attempted too quickly. 3.Upside Target $120,000 Most Analysts highlight a possible extension to $120k should institutional demand persist and macro conditions remain supportive. Conclusion Bitcoin’s ability to hold the $100,000 mark hinges on its capacity to stave off profit-taking around headline-grabbing price points and sustain ETF-driven support. Key technical floors at $100k and $ 97K—reinforced by moving-average convergence—provide a strong base, while resistance levels at $105k and the all-time high near $109.6k represent the next hurdles. If these zones are negotiated successfully, a new leg toward $120k could unfold; if not, traders should watch for a pullback to the mid-$90,000 range for renewed entries. Overall, barring sudden negative macro shocks, the outlook favors BTC maintaining its foothold at six figures, underpinning continued upside momentum. Pro Tips: Armed Your Trading Arsenal with advanced tools like multiple watchlists, basket orders, and real-time strategy adjustments at Phemex. Our USDT-based scaled orders give you precise control over your risk, while iceberg orders provide stealthy execution. Disclaimer: This is NOT financial or investment advice. Please conduct your own research (DYOR). Phemex is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss incurred or claimed to be caused by or in association with the use of or reliance on any content, goods, or services mentioned in this article.
by Phemex
BTC Crossroads: Will Tariff News Trigger a Counter-Trend Move?Given the recent easing of US-China tariff tensions, Bitcoin may consolidate or experience a slight pullback as capital rotates into equities. The resulting strength in the US dollar could further contribute to a Bitcoin retracement. I'm watching for a potential counter-trend setup, specifically a short entry on a break of market structure. However, this scenario is contingent on the price action unfolding as described in the video; otherwise, the idea will be invalidated. Not financial advice.
by fxtraderanthony
4
BTC at Key Inflection Zone – Breakout or Rejection Ahead?Asset: BTC/USD Timeframe: 4H or Daily (based on visual pattern structure) As of: May 6, 2025 Indicators: 50 EMA (Red): $91,615.79 200 EMA (Blue): $89,305.75 Key Technical Zones: 🔴 Resistance Zone: ~$104,000 – $108,000 This area has historically acted as a major supply zone. Price has been rejected from this level multiple times, indicating strong selling pressure. 🔁 Flip Zone (Resistance turned Support/Support turned Resistance): ~$95,500 – $100,000 The current price ($95,234.23) is testing this zone from below. A confirmed break and hold above could signal continuation toward the higher resistance. 🟢 Strong Support Zone: ~$88,000 – $91,000 Confluence of 50 EMA and 200 EMA adds strength to this demand zone. Previous breakout level and accumulation area. EMA Outlook: 50 EMA > 200 EMA: Short-term bullish crossover is active, indicating bullish momentum. Both EMAs are sloping upward slightly, suggesting trend strengthening. Price is currently above both EMAs, which acts as dynamic support. Potential Scenarios: ✅ Bullish Scenario: If price reclaims the $95,500–$100,000 resistance-turned-support zone: Expect upward momentum to continue. Target: $104,000–$108,000 zone. Break of $108K could lead to a macro bull continuation. ⚠️ Bearish Scenario: If price rejects the current zone and fails to hold above the $91,000 support: Look for retest of $88,000–$89,000 area (confluence with EMAs). Breakdown below that zone would invalidate bullish structure and signal potential deeper correction. Summary: Bias: Bullish above $91K, Neutral between FWB:88K –$91K, Bearish below $88K. Key Confirmation Needed: Daily close above $100,000 for strong bullish continuation. Risk Management: Watch for fakeouts within the $95K–$100K range due to past volatility.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by MrStellanSight
7
BTC Might Face a Selloff That Could Stay as a Buying OppurtunityBitcoin is enjoying the rally and the support it's receiving from the stock market. After testing the 72,000–74,000 zone, the upward reaction was so strong that even the major resistance at 91,000 failed to slow the move. However, now that the S&P 500 has reached a key resistance zone, momentum may begin to slow, at least in the short term. If the 102,300 level breaks, Bitcoin could retreat toward the lower boundary of the newly formed trend channel. In the medium-term outlook remains bullish so any short-term pullbacks are likely to present buying opportunities, as long as the trend channel and the 91,000 support level remain intact. For context, refer to our earlier daily timeframe posts on the S&P 500 and BTC:
Short
by ftdsystem
1
Update! $BTC range Bound... Consolidation? Breakout? Breakdown? CRYPTOCAP:BTC appears to have formed a range: between approximately between 76800 and 104,300 Current price: 104300 Here are the key observations: Key resistance zone is around 104300 - Price has tested this level multiple times but failed to close above it decisively. Clear to say that A break above which will lead to All time highs possibly up to 135k If #BTC Bitcoin continues to reject this level then expect these layers of support to be tested: 97700 and then 91100 CRYPTOCAP:BTC remains bullish if prices remains above 91100. Further break down will lead to bottom of range 84100 and 76800 (coinciding with 200 EMA ) Trading Implications: For Longs: Avoid new positions unless there's a breakout with volume above $105,000. For Shorts: This is a possible scalp opportunity near the top of the range, with a stop slightly above $105,000. Not financial Advice!
by Ifiok-2sydes
$BTC probability still favors new lowBTC has had a strong rally back into the prior resistance and unless we can break above the prior highs, I still think probability still favors more downside (and I think we see a new low). I've marked off support levels and resistance levels as I think this will largely be the range over the next year. My base case as of now, is that we see one more low down in the $69k-$62k region before we start a new run to the highs above ($122k+). Another possibility is that we sweep the lows and bounce at $72k, then move up towards the highs. That said, the reason I think lower is due to the massive imbalance on the chart that needs to get resolved. Overall I still think we're in a bullish trend, but that we continue to pullback before the final move higher.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by benjihyam
BTCUSD – Multi-TF Bearish SFP & Fib Retrace Before ATH Rebound Bearish SFP printed on 4H / 8H / 12H / 1D at $103 345 – $104 985 after a parabolic ~$94 k → $104 k run and multiple rejections at $104 k–$106 k resistance. Trump tariff-cut announcement sparked a sharp spike into resistance that was quickly sold off, confirming heavy supply at $104 k – $106 k. Baseline plan: drop to 0.786 Fib ~$102 586, then 0.618 Fib ~$100 613, before a push toward the ATH ~$109 588. Trade Setups Short – SFP Breakdown Trigger: 4H close below $103 345 Entry: ≈ $103 300 on retest SL: $105 500 (above swing high) TP1: 0.786 Fib ≈ $102 586  RR ≈ 0.7 TP2: 0.618 Fib ≈ $100 613  RR ≈ 2.6 Long – Fib Rebound Trigger: Bullish reversal at 0.618 Fib / FVG cluster ≈ $100 613 SL: $99 300 (below FVG) TP1: SFP top / range high ≈ $104 145  RR ≈ 2.7 TP2: ATH ≈ $109 588  RR ≈ 6.8
Long
by mikavehns
5
Trade Idea: BTCUSD Long ( BUY LIMIT )1. Trade Direction: Long • Trend Alignment: • Daily: Strong uptrend resumption with higher highs, higher lows, and price reclaiming above key moving average. RSI > 70 indicates strong momentum. • 15-Min: Bullish breakout from consolidation, steep EMA slope, MACD rising, momentum increasing. • 3-Min: Intraday momentum continuation pattern. Clean bullish price structure. • MACD (All Timeframes): Strong bullish crossover, rising histogram — confirming trend strength. • RSI (All Timeframes): RSI not yet overextended on lower timeframes, suggesting room for more upside. • Price Action: Recent breakout with healthy retracement structure and no major bearish divergence. • Fundamentals (Contextual): • BTC crossing $100K is a psychological milestone likely to invite more inflows. • Macro environment remains supportive for digital assets (inflation hedge, fiat debasement narrative). • Strong market sentiment and volume suggest continuation potential. ⸻ 2. Trade Setup Entry: • Entry Zone: $102,800 • Price is consolidating above previous resistance (~$102,000), now acting as support. Stop Loss: • SL: $101,200 • Below most recent intraday swing low and EMA on lower timeframes, giving it enough room. Take Profit: • TP: $106,800 • Near the next psychological level and extension target from recent measured moves. FUSIONMARKETS:BTCUSD
FUSIONMARKETS:BTCUSDLong
by KeN-WeNzEl
TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #89👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro! Let’s dive into the Bitcoin analysis and key crypto indexes. As usual, in this analysis I’ll go over the futures triggers for the New York session. ⏳ 1-Hour Timeframe In the 1-hour timeframe, as you can see, Bitcoin is still below the 104866 resistance level and is ranging underneath this zone. 💥 Today, an important news update came from Trump: a deal has been made between China and the U.S., and the two countries have agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days. ✔️ The impact of this news was that Bitcoin made a wick toward 106247 but didn’t reach it, pulled back, and is now again below the 104866 area. ✨ At the moment, the 104866 level is a suitable trigger for opening a position, but be aware that there’s a significant resistance zone at 106247. Personally, I won’t open a position just on the break of 104866 because it's very close to the ATH zone, and the probability of entering a corrective phase is high. ⚡️ If a correction begins, the first support level for price is at 102391. If the RSI stabilizes below 50, the likelihood of a correction increases. 🔽 As for short positions, we should wait until the market shows a trend reversal. 👑 BTC.D Analysis Now let’s look at Bitcoin dominance. Yesterday, the dominance chart made a slight upward correction and is now breaking below the 62.65 low. 🧩 If the downward move in dominance continues, altcoins could make another leg upward. The next support for dominance is at 62.17. 📅 Total2 Analysis Now for the Total2 analysis. The 1.24 area, which was our long trigger, is being broken—and if it confirms, the price could rise up to 1.31. ⭐ This confirmation, along with the drop in Bitcoin dominance, could give us good long setups on altcoins. 📅 USDT.D Analysis Now to Tether dominance. This index hasn’t triggered yet and is currently sitting at the 4.51 support. If this index also confirms a bearish move, the risk of opening long positions will be much lower. 💫 The next support level for Tether dominance is at 4.37. ❌ Disclaimer ❌ Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel. Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
Long
by tradecitypro
3
Gold - New All Time High in the making?market context and trend environment This 4-hour chart of Gold (XAU/USD) from OANDA illustrates a strong impulsive structure within a broader bullish trend. Following a sharp upward movement that broke through previous structure, gold formed a swing high before entering a corrective phase. The market has since pulled back and appears to be stabilizing near a zone of high confluence, suggesting potential for a renewed move to the upside. Price has respected key retracement levels, reinforcing the technical strength of this zone. fair value gap and fibonacci confluence A notable feature of this setup is the alignment between a visible fair value gap and the Fibonacci golden pocket zone, comprising the 0.618–0.65 retracement levels. This convergence of technical tools adds weight to the significance of the support zone around the 3,280–3,300 region. Fair value gaps represent inefficiencies in the market caused by strong institutional participation, while the golden pocket is historically known for acting as a magnet for reversals within trending markets. The presence of both in the same area increases the likelihood of price reacting positively here. liquidity sweep and structural reaction Before revisiting this key demand zone, price briefly swept below a local low, which may have served as a liquidity grab to fuel the next bullish leg. This liquidity sweep is followed by a sharp reaction, suggesting that downside pressure may have been absorbed by aggressive buyers positioned at the FVG and golden pocket. Price has since rebounded, and the subsequent price action shows a gradual formation of higher lows, hinting at a shift in short-term order flow back in favor of buyers. projection and bullish scenario The chart projects a potential bullish continuation move, with a series of higher lows anticipated to form en route to a break of structure above recent swing highs. Multiple buy-side liquidity levels (BSL) are marked, representing areas where buy stops are likely to be clustered. These zones offer clear targets for bullish expansion. The blue arrowed projection outlines a methodical stair-step advance, respecting interim levels before ultimately attempting to reach the prior high near 3,530. strategic framework and trader insight This chart offers a methodical roadmap for bullish continuation, rooted in the smart money framework of liquidity, inefficiency, and institutional order flow. The confluence between the fair value gap and Fibonacci retracement is particularly notable and serves as a key validation area for bullish traders. Rather than anticipating immediate breakout behavior, the projection emphasizes a progressive structure that aligns with how larger players tend to accumulate positions before moving the market. Patience and alignment with structure are emphasized as price prepares for a potential continuation move higher.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Louigi_24
99
BTC - Bulls vs Bears! Who will win?current market context the chart displays btcusdt on the 1-hour timeframe, currently in a consolidation phase following a strong impulsive move to the upside. this phase is characterized by a range-bound price action forming a horizontal channel, with clear resistance near the top of the range and support near the bottom. the price is fluctuating between these two levels, indicating temporary equilibrium in the market where neither buyers nor sellers have established dominance. consolidation structure this range is acting as a reaccumulation zone, typically formed after a significant move when the market pauses to either absorb liquidity or distribute orders before the next impulsive leg. within this range, traders are positioning themselves for a potential breakout, and institutional players may be accumulating or offloading large positions depending on market intent. the balance within the range suggests that market participants are awaiting a catalyst before committing in size to a direction. bullish breakout scenario if price breaks above the range high, it would signal bullish continuation. such a breakout would likely occur with increased volume and a strong momentum candle, confirming buyer interest and initiating an expansion move. this move could target new highs, potentially opening the path toward all-time highs as the breakout clears short-term liquidity and invalidates local bearish structures. the green projection on the chart visually outlines this potential path, where the breakout leads to higher prices with minimal resistance above. bearish breakout scenario alternatively, a breakdown below the range low would indicate a shift in short-term market sentiment and a break in bullish structure. this scenario would likely trigger sell-side liquidity and initiate a quick move toward lower fair value gaps. these gaps, left unmitigated during the previous bullish rally, now serve as potential targets for price to fill. the red arrow illustrates a scenario where price pierces below support, accelerates lower, and seeks inefficiencies and demand zones around the \$98,000–\$95,500 levels. this breakdown would likely be sharp, driven by stop-loss triggers and sell-side imbalances. range as a decision zone the current structure represents a critical decision zone. the upper and lower boundaries are pivotal breakout levels, and the outcome of this consolidation will determine the short- to medium-term market direction. traders should exercise caution while price remains within the range, as fakeouts or liquidity sweeps are common near such levels. confirmed structure breaks and volume surges should serve as validation tools before entering directional trades. liquidity and volume considerations liquidity resting above and below the range acts as fuel for the eventual move. the longer the range holds, the more liquidity builds on either side, increasing the probability of a strong expansion when price finally breaks out. volume analysis will be key in validating the breakout’s legitimacy—without accompanying volume, the breakout could fail and result in a false move or whipsaw. summary this setup provides a high-probability environment for breakout traders and those waiting to trade the trend continuation or reversal. the market is compressing within a well-defined range, and a decisive breakout is likely imminent. preparation, not prediction, is the priority—wait for confirmation of structure shift and volume expansion before committing to either side.
by Louigi_24
40
BTC - Accumulation, Manipulation & Distributioncurrent market structure this btcusdt 1-hour chart illustrates a classic three-phase market structure: accumulation, manipulation, and potential distribution. the price action follows a strong bullish impulse, after which the market enters a sideways range suggesting absorption of previous selling pressure. this kind of behavior is often observed before a continuation of the prevailing trend, but not without intermediate structural games, as seen in the projected manipulation phase. accumulation phase the blue highlighted zone marks a consolidation range that serves as an accumulation phase. during this stage, large market participants likely accumulate positions quietly while maintaining the price within a defined range. the tight price action within this zone and relatively small candles are consistent with market absorption, where supply is being matched or outpaced by demand. the repeated rejections of lower prices in this range imply growing buyer interest and strength building beneath the surface. unfilled fair value gap beneath the accumulation range lies an unfilled fair value gap (fvg), shown in grey. this price imbalance was left behind during the prior bullish leg and remains a magnet for price action. such gaps often attract price as the market seeks efficiency by mitigating unbalanced areas. the presence of this fvg makes it a likely candidate for a liquidity grab or retest before further bullish continuation. manipulation setup the red path outlines a possible short-term manipulation event. this move involves a quick sweep of liquidity beneath the accumulation zone, triggering stop-losses from late long entries and drawing price into the fvg. this is a classic “spring” or “shakeout” scenario designed to trap sellers and create panic, thereby enabling larger players to enter at discounted prices. the manipulation tag here signals a deliberate attempt to create false downside conviction before reversing upward. re-accumulation and breakout following the manipulation phase, the green projection shows a sharp reversal and aggressive push upward, initiating a new bullish leg. this move represents re-accumulation, where price quickly exits the range and enters an expansion phase. momentum will likely increase after price breaks back above the original range high, signaling confidence in the trend continuation and drawing in breakout traders. the large green area indicates the expected path toward a new distribution zone. distribution projection at the top of the chart, the green box represents a possible future distribution zone. after an extended bullish run, price often enters distribution, where buying interest begins to wane, and larger participants start offloading positions into retail strength. although speculative at this point, its placement reflects the natural progression of a market cycle if the projected bullish move plays out. market psychology this chart reflects a clear sequence in market psychology: stealth accumulation, a manufactured dip to create fear (manipulation), followed by a surge fueled by both institutional entries and retail breakout traders. understanding this dynamic helps traders anticipate rather than react, positioning themselves in alignment with likely intent rather than emotional impulses. summary the chart outlines a structured bullish scenario with a potential manipulation wick into an unfilled fvg, setting the stage for a continuation higher. if price reacts strongly off the fvg and regains the range, confirmation of bullish intent would be established. this setup emphasizes the importance of understanding liquidity dynamics and price inefficiencies, favoring patient and strategic entries over reactive ones.
Long
by Louigi_24
149
MSTR (Strategy) coming up to $395, the smaller resistance levelNASDAQ:MSTR has rebounded from the bottom fairly fast compared to other stocks and indexes. It's even performed better than Bitcoin itself. However it should be hitting heavy resistance now near 395-400 and above is only heavier resistance. It's time for a pullback and a breather for MSTR. Target is the Point of Control near $350, before going higher. However we could turn bullish again before reaching $350 I personally know someone who played with fire by buying MSTR options calls while it was dropping before, meaning he was trying to catch a falling knife and got burnt finally. He lost nearly $500,000 because of it. So I don't mess with options personally, however I will margin trade with stocks and trade futures, forex and leverage trade cryptocurrencies.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by SakisBack
1
BITCOIN about to test its ATH following HUGE U.S. - China deal!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is marching towards the $109000 Resistance, which is its All Time High (ATH), following the U.S. - China trade agreement 3 hours ago. This can be a huge fundamental boost to the bullish trend as technically, every time the Resistance level broke during this Bull Cycle, the break-out that followed was extremely aggressive. On October 2 2023, the Resistance test resulted into a strong break-out, which completed a +96.18% rise from the bottom before a 1D MA100 (green trend-line) pull-back. At the same time of the Resistance break-out, we had a 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross and a 1W MACD Bullish Cross. The October 29 2024 Resistance test on the other hand was initially unsuccessful and made a 5 day rejection back near the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) before the next successful test. Again the rise was more than +96.18%. As a result, we are expecting to see at least $145k by July (+96.18%) once the Resistance breaks. Do you think that is a realistic time-frame for $145000? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
4
12/05/25 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $104,972.46 Last weeks low: $93,385.49 Midpoint: $99,178.97 Bitcoin climbs over 12% from weekly low to weekly high, an incredible achievement despite a mixed performance in Tradfi. A pattern we've seen since the $74,500 double bottom following Liberation day goes; A strong rally for a week, consolidation in a tight trading range for a week, then repeat. Should this pattern continue we should see consolidation between weekly high and $102,075 (0.75 line). CPI & PPI take place this week on Tuesday and Thursday respectively, inflation is still a big talking point but baring a crazy print I would be surprised if these events move BTC. In the last few hours at time of writing The US has reduced tariffs on China to 30% for 90 days, China has reduced tariffs on the US down to 10%. To me this signifies the worst of the trade war narrative is behind us. This week I will be tracking altcoins with strong fundamentals as BTC.D rolls over from its highest point since January '21, ETH has already had a strong breakout from the downtrend and with BTC at ATH levels with strong resistance this should be the time to see altcoin strength and play catch-up. Good luck this week!
by ProR35
2