BTC - the path to $72k This trade continues. And started months ago.
BTC is in a deep bear market.
And has more room to run.
$68,600 is now really looking like the 1st stabilization point. There will be rallies in between, but there is a lot of slow grinding pain ahead. Elliot Wave, Murrey Math and Kumar wave being used for the forecasts. Comments always welcomed. Happy Trading.
Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)
Uniswap will reach $135Timeframe : Weekly chart
Price Levels:
The current price is not explicitly labeled, but the chart shows a range from approximately $4 to $6.32 (based on the visible y-axis and the latest candlestick).
The price action spans from a low near $4 in late 2022 to a peak around $6.32 in early 2025, with a correction phase labeled.
Trend Overview:
2022-2023: The price starts around $4 and experiences a gradual uptrend with some volatility, consolidating between $4 and $5 for much of this period.
2024: A sharp upward move occurs, peaking near $6.32, followed by a correction phase.
Early 2025: The price is in a consolidation or correction phase, with the latest candlesticks showing a slight recovery.
2. Key Patterns and Annotations
Descending Triangle:
The chart features a descending triangle pattern, similar to the Ethereum chart you shared earlier.
Upper Resistance: A horizontal resistance line around $6.32 (the recent peak).
Lower Support: A descending trendline (sloping downward) that the price has been testing, currently near $4.50-$5.00.
The price is approaching the apex of the triangle, suggesting an impending breakout (upward or downward).
Correction Phase:
The chart labels a "Correction" phase after the peak at $6.32, where the price retraced to the $4.50-$5.00 range.
This correction likely reflects profit-taking or broader market pressure after the rally.
Breakout Prediction:
An upward arrow is drawn, indicating a potential breakout to the upside, possibly targeting the $6.32 resistance again or higher. This suggests optimism for a significant upward move.
3. Support and Resistance Levels
Support:
The $4.50-$5.00 level appears to be a strong support zone, as the price has bounced multiple times in this range during the correction.
If this support breaks, the next level could be around $4.00 (a psychological and historical support from 2022-2023).
Resistance:
The $6.32 level is a key resistance, marking the recent high. A break above this could signal a continuation of the prior uptrend.
Intermediate resistance might be around $5.50-$6.00, a prior consolidation zone.
4. Volume and Momentum (Not Visible but Inferred)
Volume bars are not clearly visible, but typical behavior suggests:
Volume likely increased during the rally to $6.32 and decreased during the correction as selling pressure eased.
A breakout would need a volume spike to confirm, especially if the price breaks above the descending trendline (around $5.50-$6.00).
Momentum indicators (e.g., RSI or MACD) could help determine if the price is oversold or showing bullish divergence, supporting a reversal.
5. Potential Scenarios
Bullish Breakout:
If UNISWAP breaks above the descending trendline (around $5.50-$6.00) with strong volume, it could confirm the breakout.
The target might be the $6.32 resistance, representing a ~20-25% move from the current $5.00 level, or potentially higher if momentum carries it past the prior peak.
This aligns with the upward arrow and suggests accumulation by larger players (e.g., whales) during the correction.
Bearish Breakdown:
If the price fails to hold the $4.50-$5.00 support and breaks below, it could signal a bearish continuation.
The next support at $4.00 could be tested, potentially leading to further downside.
Consolidation:
If the price remains within the triangle (between $4.50 and the descending trendline), it might continue to consolidate until a catalyst (e.g., market news, volume surge) triggers a move.
Bitcoin will reach at $221,0001. Overview of the Chart
Asset: Bitcoin (BTC) / USD
Timeframe: Daily (D)
Platform: TradingView
Date Range: Approximately mid-2023 to March 11, 2025
Current Price (as of Mar 11, 2025): $76,697.39 (shown in the top right corner)
2. Price Movement
Historical Trend: From mid-2023 to late 2024, Bitcoin shows a steady uptrend with some corrections. The price rises from around $25,000–$30,000 to a peak near $100,000 by late 2024.
Recent Action: After hitting a high around $100,000 in late 2024, the price corrects downward, dropping to around $75,000–$80,000 by early 2025. The current price as of March 11, 2025, is $76,697.39, indicating a slight recovery or stabilization after the correction.
3. Technical Patterns
Ascending Triangle
Formation: The chart shows an ascending triangle pattern from mid-2024 to late 2024. This pattern is characterized by:
A flat resistance line around $95,000–$100,000 (the horizontal line where the price struggles to break through multiple times).
An ascending support line (sloping upward), indicating higher lows as buyers step in at progressively higher prices.
Breakout: In late 2024, the price breaks above the resistance of the ascending triangle, reaching a high near $100,000. This breakout is typically a bullish signal, often leading to a continuation of the uptrend.
Target Calculation: The target for an ascending triangle breakout is often calculated by measuring the height of the triangle (from the base to the resistance) and projecting it upward from the breakout point. The height of the triangle appears to be roughly $30,000 (from the base around $65,000 to the resistance at $95,000). Adding this to the breakout point of $95,000 gives a target of approximately $125,000. However, the price only reached around $100,000 before correcting, suggesting the breakout may not have fully played out or was interrupted by market conditions.
Trendline
Upward Trendline: A long-term upward trendline (drawn in orange) connects the higher lows from mid-2023 onward. This trendline has acted as support during the uptrend.
Current Position: As of March 11, 2025, the price is testing this trendline around the $75,000–$80,000 level. This is a critical area to watch, as a bounce from this trendline would confirm continued bullish momentum, while a break below could signal a deeper correction.
4. Support and Resistance Levels
Support:
The long-term trendline around $75,000–$80,000 is a key support level.
If this trendline fails, the next significant support could be around the base of the ascending triangle, near $65,000.
Resistance:
The previous all-time high around $95,000–$100,000 is now a resistance zone. The price struggled to break above this level multiple times before the breakout and may face selling pressure if it approaches this zone again.
5. Price Action Analysis
Post-Breakout Correction: After breaking out of the ascending triangle, Bitcoin hit a high near $100,000 but failed to sustain the momentum, leading to a correction. This is not uncommon after a breakout, as markets often pull back to retest previous resistance (now support) or other key levels like the trendline.
Current Position: The price is at a critical juncture as of March 11, 2025. It’s testing the long-term trendline support around $76,000. The fact that it’s holding above this level (at $76,697.39) is a positive sign for bulls, but confirmation of a bounce with strong volume would be needed to signal a resumption of the uptrend.
BTC, Fibs, Market Psychology, and You: A Primer The Setup
I've identified a compelling technical setup that suggests BTC could be heading toward the $9,000-$9,850 range. This isn't just another bearish call - it's based on a rare convergence of multiple technical factors that I've rarely seen align so perfectly in my 18 years of trading markets.
Technical Confluence Zone
What makes this setup particularly compelling is the convergence of multiple independent technical factors around the same price zone:
1. Unfilled CME Gap : The Bitcoin futures chart shows a persistent unfilled gap from 2020 between $9,655 and $9,850. This gap has survived multiple market cycles without being filled, making it increasingly significant.
2. Key Fibonacci Level : The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level sits at $9,024.11, remarkably close to the lower bound of the CME gap when accounting for the typical futures premium over spot.
3. Elliott Wave Structure : The current price action suggests we're in Wave 4 of a larger Elliott Wave pattern. Wave 4 corrections often retrace to previous Wave 1 territory, which aligns with this target zone.
4. Fibonacci Time Cycles : The time component is equally important - Fibonacci time extensions suggest we're approaching a potential inflection point in the current cycle.
Market Context Supports the Technical Picture
The technical setup doesn't exist in a vacuum. Several market conditions increase the probability of this scenario playing out:
1. Market Saturation : The crypto ecosystem has expanded dramatically, with thousands of tokens diluting liquidity that was once concentrated in major cryptocurrencies.
2. Retail Exhaustion : Retail investors who entered during previous hype cycles feel unrewarded despite price recoveries, leading to diminished enthusiasm and buying pressure.
3. Institutional Distribution: Wall Street and institutions have made their presence known, which historically signals they've distributed their high-priced holdings to retail while preparing short positions.
4. Concentrated Leverage Risk : MicroStrategy's position of 499,500 BTC at a $66,000 average purchase price, funded almost entirely by massive debt issuance, creates a significant systemic vulnerability. A move toward our target zone would put extreme pressure on their balance sheet.
Broader Market Context
This analysis also coincides with what looks to be a tired stock market following the 2024 US presidential election. With Donald Trump winning his second term, we have seen significant policy shifts that are actively impacting both traditional and crypto markets. Historically, markets often experience increased volatility during transitions of power, and the confluence of this political shift with our technical setup creates an even more compelling case for caution.
Additionally, price precedes news. The news is created on price. If you're hearing about an event, the trade has already been made. There is too much talk of unprecedented institutional participation. This is another sign that retail is being distributed to for the next meltdown. Bags were already offloaded. It's time to drop the anchor.
Historical Perspective
Having traded through multiple market cycles since 2007 I've seen this pattern before. Large players often target overleveraged positions to acquire assets at distressed prices. Michael Saylor experienced a leveraged meltdown once before during the dot-com crash - history doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes. Saylor is a designated whipping boy. A patsy. He will be rewarded well for his participation in fleecing you, so don't worry about what kind of skin he has in the game.
With that said, I believe an undetermined Black Swan event will be necessary to complete the rug pull. What that is, I cannot know.
Trading Implications
This analysis suggests several potential trading strategies:
1. Risk Management : Reduce exposure to Bitcoin and high-beta altcoins until this technical target is reached or invalidated.
2. Opportunity Preparation : Build dry powder positions to capitalize on what could be an exceptional buying opportunity if BTC reaches the $9,000-$9,850 zone.
3. Watch for Triggers : Monitor for breakdowns below key support levels that could accelerate the move toward our target zone.
4. Time-Based Entries : Use the Fibonacci time cycle extensions to refine entry timing if the price approaches our target zone.
Conclusion
While Bitcoin's long-term prospects remain strong, the confluence of technical factors pointing to the $9,000-$9,850 range suggests a significant correction may occur before the next sustained bull run. The catalysts to reach what should be a $250k range this cycle simply do not exist, and with waning macroeconomic strength, the odds of this cycle being anything other than a massive bulltrap are low. This setup represents one of the strongest technical cases I've seen. I also don't care to share my ideas often, but with everyone expecting a typical crypto market cycle, I feel compelled to offer my take on a public forum--for whatever it may be worth.
I am not shorting this market. I have removed my capital and taken an observant position. While I feel strongly about my idea--Clown World has fully taken hold and I don't dare test its resolve to break me.
Remember that no analysis is guaranteed - always manage risk accordingly and be prepared to adapt as the market evolves.
*Disclaimer: This analysis represents my personal view of the markets based on technical analysis and market observations. It should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.*
Bitcoin Uptrend Continuation AnalysisQuick analysis of BTCUSD downside targets. Remains to be seen whether the near-term Bitcoin lows will hold, but if they don't, a "bear trap" setup could be in play. There's a daily demand zone (77075-74305) wedged between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements. The bear trap will be dependent on momentum, but watch this area if we get a flush below 78180. If bullish divergences form, bulls could look to trap bears and buy within said range.
That said, keep the focus on longer-term charts. Larger timeframe buy zones are ~70K. Should the weekly RSI take a dive < 40, look for reversal signals on smaller timeframes before getting long. The high of the corrective segment denoting ideal buys is 73808 and the anchor low securing the long-term uptrend is 49351. Entries within that range, which is wide, are viable. Also multiple support/resistance "flip zones" in play circa the abovementioned levels.
Bitcoin found some support ~50% Fib retrace, anchored VWAP, and sub-daily demand. It could hold here (trying to put in a intraday higher low as I type this), but I'm hoping it trades lower before higher.
Godspeed!
JHart
Bitcoin falls amid disappointment with Trump’s crypto policy
Bitcoin fell as investor hopes for a US strategic reserve plan were let down. Rather than accumulating cryptocurrencies, the US government held only its previously seized assets, triggering a price decline. However, large investors viewed the dip as a buying opportunity. Data reveals that whale and shark wallets acquired 5,000 Bitcoin during the downturn, reflecting confidence in the market despite the drop.
BTCUSD tested the 77,500 support level after failing to reclaim the EMA21. The widening bearish EMAs suggest a potential continuation of the downtrend. A sustained recovery and a close above 80,000 could lead to a retest of the next resistance at 82,500. On the other hand, if BTCUSD fails to hold above 77,500, a further drop toward 75,000 may follow.
Bottom Still Not in, Drop could hit low 70kBTC is falling due to markets and investor fear. The Bottom still hasn't travelled the length of the the FVG on the Weekly Chart that will be attractive to smart money and institutional investors
When looking at the Historical Data it shows that the price had a pullback and found resistance at the Weekly 21 day RMA .
Currently that looks like a point where Resistance once again will be established when combined with the FVG on the Weekly, Price will likely fall below and recover to hold the 21d RMA
Possible top for BTC for this cycle?Trying to see what the bullish outlook is for #BTC, however I am finding a lot more bearish arguments at this stage then bullish.
Looking at the Daily, Weekly and Monthly Chart:
- RSI printing Bearish Divergences
- Failing to break above the heavy pitch-fork channel formed since 2017 Highs through to the highs in 2021.
Daily:
- 50MA is approaching closer and looks to roll back around.
- Super Guppy band is starting to tighten and turn neutral.
- 5th Wave of Elliot has finished, with a truncated top.
- Double top pattern
- Wyckoff Distribution looks to be in play
Of course if we can break out of this massive channel, this bearishness is no longer valid.
What case for Bullishness can you give me for BTC?
BTC/USD Breakdown! Bearish Target: $78K🔍 BTC/USD 30-Minute Chart Analysis
📉 Market Structure:
The chart displays an ABCDE corrective pattern, likely a descending wedge or contracting triangle, which has now broken to the downside.
Price action shows a breakout below the wedge, leading to further bearish momentum.
The 200-period moving average (red line) is acting as resistance, reinforcing the downward trend.
📊 Current Price: ~$83,057
🔻 Bearish Target: $78,049 (marked as the potential support level)
🛑 Key Observations:
Rejection from wave E indicates a lack of bullish strength.
Lower highs and lower lows confirm a continuation of the bearish trend.
Potential retest of ~$85,000 before dropping further.
🚀 Trading Insights:
Bearish Bias: Short opportunities on pullbacks toward resistance.
Bullish Reversal? Look for price action near $78,049—if buyers step in, a potential bounce could occur.
⚠️ Watch out for:
Sudden Bitcoin volatility (news-driven moves).
A fake breakdown (if buyers reclaim above ~$85,000).
$1.51 to $3.25 casually DOUBLED while rest of the market crashes$1.51 to $3.25 casually DOUBLED today after being mentioned in chat many times
Sweet catch on NASDAQ:HMR 👏🤑
All while the rest of the market continues to hits new lows on a big red day NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:DIA NASDAQ:META NASDAQ:AMZN NASDAQ:GOOG
Got to love these type of stocks
AEON 1.26 - 1.33 (+5.5%)
HMR 3.02 - 3.16 (+4.6%)
Total profit today: +10.1%
Nice profit today again while the rest of the market goes into deeper red.
Bulletproof strategy delivers again, no matter the overall market conditions.
Congrats!
See you in the morning!
Bitcoin's Battle for 79,478 – Reversal or Further Decline?VIDEO:
🤖💥 Bitcoin's Battle for 79,478 – Reversal or Further Decline? 📉🚀
Bitcoin has taken a massive dip, crashing 7.8% along with Ethereum. But the real question now: Is this the bottom, or are we heading lower?
Key levels to watch:
📌 79,500 – A reclaim could push BTC back towards 83,000.
📌 Failure to hold could send Bitcoin to 66,000 or even 62,000.
📊 The Nasdaq is also testing key support, and Tesla is in trouble, struggling at $220. Altcoins are getting crushed, with only Shiba Inu showing some resilience.
🌍💣 Meanwhile, external factors are brewing – Tesla, X, and even Elon Musk are facing attacks, and broader market sentiment remains shaky.
Will Bitcoin rebound, or are we heading for a deeper correction? Let me know your thoughts below!
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoCrash #Trading #MarketAnalysis
BITCOIN Great Investment Opportunity! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
BITCOIN keeps falling down
In a strong correction move
But the coin will soon hit a
Massive key horizontal
Demand level of 72,500$
From where a bullish
Rebound and a move up
Is likely to happen
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Biggest support at ETHBTC, the end of the fall? Will Ethereum end its downtrend? Ethereum has been quite weak for a long time and is currently at an important support level. If it breaks down further, a sharp decline may continue, but if it holds the support, the upcoming period could be more positive.
2018 and 2021 crypto rally started from this support. Will be again?
Many cryptocurrency dominance charts, as well as Nasdaq and stock charts too, showing the same pattern. Is the reversal starting?
We’ll see.
This is not investment advice. Please do your own research.
Wishing you best.
-YusufDeli
OTHERS.D at important support, crypto rally coming?Upcoming period could be more positive?
Many cryptocurrency dominance charts, as well as Nasdaq and stock charts too, showing the same pattern. Is the reversal starting? Check my other analysis too.
We’ll see.
This is not investment advice. Please do your own research.
Wishing you best.
-YusufDeli
TOTAL Marketcap at important support?Upcoming period could be more positive?
Many cryptocurrency dominance charts, as well as Nasdaq and stock charts too, showing the same pattern. Is the reversal starting?
We’ll see.
This is not investment advice. Please do your own research.
Wishing you best.
-YusufDeli
Bitcoin's Battle for 79,478 – Reversal or Further Decline?🤖💥 Bitcoin's Battle for 79,478 – Reversal or Further Decline? 📉🚀
Bitcoin has taken a massive dip, crashing 7.8% along with Ethereum. But the real question now: Is this the bottom, or are we heading lower?
Key levels to watch:
📌 79,500 – A reclaim could push BTC back towards 83,000.
📌 Failure to hold could send Bitcoin to 66,000 or even 62,000.
📊 The Nasdaq is also testing key support, and Tesla is in trouble, struggling at $220. Altcoins are getting crushed, with only Shiba Inu showing some resilience.
🌍💣 Meanwhile, external factors are brewing – Tesla, X, and even Elon Musk are facing attacks, and broader market sentiment remains shaky.
Will Bitcoin rebound, or are we heading for a deeper correction? Let me know your thoughts below!
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoCrash #Trading #MarketAnalysis
USDT.D dominance at important resistance? Crypto rally coming?BTC and ETH coming to an important support level. And USDT dominance at the big resistance.
Many cryptocurrency dominance charts, as well as Nasdaq and stock charts at support too.
Is the reversal starting?
We’ll see.
This is not investment advice. Please do your own research.
Wishing you best.
-YusufDeli
Don’t forget: US also faces a government showdown With markets in turmoil, it's easy to overlook the growing risk of a U.S. government shutdown.
A three-week market sell-off intensified today as investors worry that unpredictable policies from the Trump administration are pushing the economy into recession.
The S&P 500 is down 9.1% from its February high, the Nasdaq 14%, and the Russell 2000 18%. A 10% decline is considered a correction.
Bitcoin also dropped below $80,000, while the USD and gold are seeing some weakness.
Meanwhile, Lawmakers have until Friday, March 14, to pass a funding bill. But House Republicans must secure near-unanimous support.
The longest shutdown in history lasted 34 days in 2018 over Trump border wall funding. Now, Democrats again hold key leverage. While Republicans have a House majority, they need Democratic support in the Senate to pass funding. Some see this as a rare chance for Senate Democrats to challenge Trump’s/ Elon Musk’s cuts via the Department of Government Efficiency, though it’s unclear if they will take that risk.
BTC trend support?Will BTC end its downtrend? Bitcoin coming to an important support level. If it breaks down further, a sharp decline may continue to other support, but if it holds at support (77500), the upcoming period could be more positive.
Many cryptocurrency dominance charts, as well as Nasdaq and stock charts too, showing the same pattern. Is the reversal starting?
We’ll see.
This is not investment advice. Please do your own research.
Wishing you best.
-YusufDeli