Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)
Watching for 98.2K resistance for short entryMorning folks,
So, this week / our DRPO "Sell" pattern is one step closer to confirmation and has a good chances to start working this week.
Meantime, due to weekend collapse BTC now is overextended. The problem is not about BTC itself but in jump of the USD, triggered by Donny's tariffs. We suggest to get technical rally, back to ~98.2K resistance area and consider short entry there if DRPO still will be OK.
If DRPO will be confirmed this week, its target stands around 81K support area. So, it is worthy to pay attention to...
BITCOIN BEARISH PROJECTION#Bitcoin is showing potential for downside momentum if the price confirms a breakout below key support. A confirmed breakdown could lead to a retracement toward the 200 EMA, aligning with a possible 38% Fibonacci correction. The double top formation has intensified bearish sentiment, pushing the price below $95K.
Additionally, fair value gaps on the left indicate that if selling pressure increases, the price could dip below $80K. The trendline drawn on the daily timeframe is also acting as a crucial support level to watch.
The market has been struggling, with panic setting in due to recent developments. This aligns with escalating trade tensions, driven by Donald Trump’s decisive actions regarding Canada and BRICS. Key events contributing to market uncertainty include the latest tariffs imposed on Canadian goods, potential restrictions on trade with BRICS nations, and heightened geopolitical friction. These factors have intensified volatility, prompting investors to reassess risks in the global economy.
Finally btc.d touched it, Altseason is coming Hello guys, I was waiting for touching this zone about 3 month and finally it happened.
In my idea, dominance could fall from here and altseason is so close, so don't fear and buy the dips ;)
Reg Optimism, Implicit Fed Support, & Insti Demand to Boost BTCBitcoin prices surged on President Trump’s inauguration day (Jan 20), reaching an all-time high of USD 109,000. However, since then, prices have stagnated. Recent tariff announcement has driven a sharp selloff.
Optimism about a crypto-friendly Trump administration continue to fuel bullish sentiment, but the lack of concrete regulatory guidance has limited near-term momentum.
MACRO FACTORS AT PLAY
BTC remains below key resistance levels, limiting upward momentum. However, it has outperformed equities in the current macroeconomic environment. While equities faced an AI-driven selloff last week, BTC showed resilience, rebounding quickly from its Jan 24 lows. Additionally, BTC has benefited from market uncertainty, like gold, which is also trading near an all-time high.
The recent FOMC meeting initially pressured BTC, as the Fed held rates steady and expressed inflation concerns. However, BTC rebounded 2.4% after Fed Chair Powell clarified that changes in inflation-related language were not intended as a strong signal.
Source: CME FedWatch
The Federal Reserve’s latest dot plot suggests only two rate cuts in 2025. Market expectations, per the CME FedWatch tool, align with this outlook. While a higher-rate environment limits tailwinds for BTC, bullish sentiment continues, driven by regulatory anticipation and increasing institutional and sovereign adoption.
BREAKING DOWN TRUMP’S EXECUTIVE ORDER
On Jan 23, President Trump issued an executive order titled "Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology." The order emphasizes fostering digital asset growth while maintaining U.S. financial sovereignty, particularly through USD-backed stablecoins. It also protects citizens’ rights to use blockchain networks without government interference.
Key provisions include:
1. Creation of a National Economic Council working group on digital assets, chaired by David Sacks.
2. Review of existing regulations within 30–60 days, followed by a report to the President in 180 days.
3. Consideration of a national digital asset reserve while explicitly prohibiting government action on (Central Bank Digital Currency) CBDCs.
U.S. BITCOIN RESERVE: REALITY CHECK
While the executive order affirms the administration’s pro-crypto stance, it stops short of immediately establishing a national Bitcoin reserve. If approved, the reserve would take shape in at least six months, delaying any near-term impact.
The working group may begin by utilizing seized cryptocurrency rather than purchasing new BTC. The U.S. government currently holds 198,000 BTC (~USD 20B, as of Feb 1) and USD 400M in other crypto assets.
For context, U.S. strategic reserves include: (a) Gold: 8,133 tonnes (~USD 737B as of 31/Jan), (b) Crude oil: 395M barrels (~USD 28B, as of 24/Jan), and (c) Foreign currency reserves: ~USD 239B (Q3 2024).
The U.S. gold reserve accounts for 3.8% of the total above-ground gold stock, while its Bitcoin holdings currently represent just 1% of the total supply. To match the gold reserve proportion, U.S. Bitcoin holdings would need to increase by 554,000 BTC, valued at approximately USD 55 billion at current prices. Over time, a Bitcoin reserve could realistically expand by USD 50 billion to USD 70 billion.
Meanwhile, several U.S. states are advancing their own Bitcoin reserve proposals. 15 states are considering BTC-related fiscal policies, with:
• Oklahoma, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania proposing 10% public fund allocations
• Texas suggesting a donation/tax model
• Arizona and Utah advancing legislation beyond committee stages
REGULATORY CERTAINTY FOR BANKS
Fed Chair Powell recently confirmed that banks can engage with crypto provided they manage associated risks. While this imposes stricter compliance requirements, it provides much-needed clarity following the post-FTX banking shakeout that shuttered major crypto-focussed banks.
Fund Flows: Institutional Demand Remains Strong
BTC ETFs saw record one-day inflows of over USD 1B on Trump’s inauguration eve. Since then, daily inflows have averaged USD 257M, with only one outflow day (-USD 457M on Jan 27).
Cumulative BTC ETF inflows since Jan 20 now total USD 2.3B, pushing assets under management (AUM) to nearly USD 118B.
Source: Arkham Intelligence
Notably, ETF investors remain highly profitable at current prices. Arkham Intelligence data shows IBIT ETF holders sitting on a 45% gain, which may limit immediate selling but could lead to some profit-taking.
MicroStrategy remains a major BTC buyer. The company recently completed a USD 584M perpetual convertible offering to acquire more BTC, potentially fuelling short-term upside.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & TRADE SETUP
BTC’s recent pullbacks have ranged from 10.1% to 23.6% Fibonacci levels, like the 2018 bull cycle according to Glassnode .
Source: Glassnode
The drawdown since reaching ATH on 20/Jan represents a ~13% move which suggests the drawdown is larger than usual ones during this cycle.
Historically, this phase of the bull run experiences FOMO-driven price acceleration, though long-term holders’ profit-taking presents a headwind.
BTC fell below the 50-day MA over the weekend, this level has served as support recently. The 92k level is also significant as it has provided support several times during recent retracements. However, in case the selloff deepens, the next significant support may be as far as the 100-day MA at 85k.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
BTC has outperformed equities amid macro uncertainty and is increasingly correlated with gold (30-day correlation: 0.67). Recent tariff announcement in the US has driven a sharp selloff.
Despite a less-than-ideal FOMC outcome, BTC retains several bullish drivers, supported by Regulatory optimism following Trump’s executive order, Fed Chair Powell’s statements on crypto banking, and Institutional & sovereign demand.
The recent selloff offers a tactical opportunity to build long positions during volatile drawdowns.
Investors can opt for the following hypothetical trade setup consisting of long position in CME Micro Bitcoin Futures expiring on 28/Feb (MBTG2025). Each contract of MBT provides exposure to 0.1 BTC and requires margin of USD 2,451 as of 31/Jan.
• Entry: 94,000
• Target: 100,585
• Stop Loss: 90,000
• Profit at Target: USD 659 ((100,585-94,000) x 0.1 BTC per contract)
• Loss at Stop: USD 400 ((90,000-94,000) x 0.1 BTC per contract)
• Reward-to-risk Ratio: 1.65x
CME Group lists a raft of products covering a range of asset classes more accessible while also enabling granular hedging for portfolio managers.
Portfolio managers can learn more on how to access these micro products by visiting CME Micro Products page on CME portal to discover micro-sized contracts to gain macro exposures.
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MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme .
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This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Mid-February, Btc.d peaks and the altcoin rally may start.Trust fibonacci.
It is clear from Fibonacci extensions that we are close to the peaks in Bitcoin dominance.
Fibonacci circles also give us ideas of both resistances and time periods.
In my opinion, Bitcoin dominance will peak in mid-February and the altcoin bullrun may begin. Bitcoin dominance will bottom at the end of May 2026.
* What i share here is not an investment advice. Please do your own research before investing in any digital asset.
* Never take my personal opinions as investment advice, you may lose all your money.
BTCUSD Sell RiskHi it looks like BTCUSD has continued to show some selling. There is risk of possible continued selling.
Thanks please follow me thanks.
@ilyaskhan.1994 #btcusd #bitcoin
91-92K zone is critical for Bitcoin to sustainCOINBASE:BTCUSD is retesting the 91-92K zone and if it is breached then we can expect further downside. On the contrary, if it holds then we can expect the upmove to continue beyond 100K.
Wait and watch ...
Frankly !!BITCOIN is in the ascending phase by the cup and handle.
BTC is in a large C&H if it follows these pattern, the price will have a nice rally.
⭐The pattern increases the price by the amount of the measured price movement (AB=CD).
Golden analysis
Give me some energy !!
✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us.
Best regards CobraVanguard.💚
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✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟!
⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
Be careful with bitcoin !!!As you can see, the price is forming two bullish patterns on the 4h timeframe, If my view is correct, btc will rise to $120k .
And if this pattern is correct and breaks, higher targets are possible.
Give me some energy !!
✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us.
Best regards CobraVanguard.💚
_ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟!
⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
Bitcoin’s price has finally started movingHello, dear friends!🩷
I’m so glad to see You here! After a week of stagnation, Bitcoin’s price has finally started moving—it’s heading downwards, continuing to form an inverted triangle, or as some might call it, an inverted wedge!
I believe that in the near future—perhaps a day or two—we might see Bitcoin at $90,000. Whether the price will continue to drop after that is still unclear, so we’ll keep a close eye on how it develops.
How are You doing? Where do You think Bitcoin is headed in the near term? Do You agree with my analysis, or do You have a different opinion? Share Your thoughts in the comments—I’d love to hear them!
Thanks for Your attention🫶
Sincerely Yours, Kateryna 💛
Bitcoin’s Role in Overcoming Tariffs | Public Release 01B.A.S.E Fund | Public Release 01
Bitcoin has once again reached the third touch of the 2D 50 SMA, with recent price drawdowns coinciding with the latest U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. Despite short term volatility, our models continue to indicate a strong hold for Bitcoin in the near future. The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI is heating up, signaling potential rate cuts on the horizon. If monetary easing materializes, downward pressure on the U.S. dollar (DXY) could provide further tailwinds for Bitcoin.
A faint trendline extending from the 2016 cycle suggests a similar trajectory, though broader market forces dictate that the overall price channel remains the key indicator to watch.
Our initial caution zone begins at $374,000, extending toward $1,000,000. However, given the evolving macroeconomic environment and increasing state level adoption of Bitcoin in the U.S., we acknowledge the possibility that Bitcoin could diverge from its traditional boom-and-bust cycles.
A Market Undergoing Structural Transformation
What was once a retail-driven speculative market is now solidifying into an institutional cornerstone. As Bitcoin related regulations advance and legal frameworks take shape across individual U.S. states, we anticipate Bitcoin’s behavior to shift away from its historical volatility patterns.
While speculative leverage driven price surges remain a possibility, the foundation supporting Bitcoin is now stronger than ever. This time, we expect Bitcoin to be held with the same conviction as long-duration U.S. Treasuries, positioning it as a legitimate asset class within the global financial system.
Disclaimer
This release is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The information contained herein reflects our perspectives at the time of writing and is subject to change. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.
Bitcoin- Something is Rotten in Denmark- Cause of Concern?In my previous BTC analysis, I mentioned that "it's about time for the price to do something" and highlighted that a breakout above 107k could trigger accelerated upward momentum, potentially leading to a significant new all-time high with a measured target in the 130K zone.
However, following days of low volatility, Bitcoin has started to decline instead of breaking through the resistance.
Overall, the situation is starting to look unfavorable. Despite the positive news surrounding crypto marklet, Bitcoin's inability to break resistance and reach a new ATH is anything but bullish.
From a technical perspective, as of now, the price is hovering just above a local support level.
If this level breaks, it could once again expose the 90K confluence support. Given the current conditions, this seems like the most likely scenario.
In my opinion, if you’re a speculator, the best approach right now is to stay on the sidelines and observe how the market develops.
Bitcoin: Potential Bearish Breakdown with Key Support Zoneshello guys!
The chart suggests a Head and Shoulders pattern, indicating a possible bullish (in a higher time frame) continuation. Here are the key points:
Head and Neckline Structure
A well-defined head formation at the top, with a sloping trendline indicating weakness.
The neckline is around 97,657, which is a key support level.
QML2 & Price Rejection
The price could test the QML2 area, confirming bearish sentiment.
The descending trendline further reinforces selling pressure.
Expected Price Action
A short-term pullback might occur near 97,657, but a break below this level could trigger further downside.
The next major support is the QML1 zone at 93,455, where buyers may step in.
If selling pressure continues, the price could drop further into the 91,829 - 91,468 demand area.
Potential Reversal Scenario
If Bitcoin finds support at the lower QML1 or demand area, a strong bullish recovery toward 103,000+ could follow.
Overall, this setup suggests a short-term bearish continuation, but traders should monitor price action near key support zones for a potential bullish reversal.
BTC / USDT : Holding strong at 92K - Bounce incoming ?Bitcoin (BTC/USDT): Holding Strong at GETTEX:92K – Bounce Incoming?
Bitcoin is showing resilience at the GETTEX:92K support level, holding firm despite market fluctuations. This critical level has acted as a strong demand zone, and if buyers step in, we could see a bullish bounce from here. The next move will be crucial in determining BTC’s short-term trend.
Key Insights:
1️⃣ Major Support at GETTEX:92K : BTC has been testing this level, and a strong rebound could trigger a move towards higher resistance zones.
2️⃣ Volume Confirmation: A noticeable increase in buy volume would signal strength and confirm the potential bounce.
3️⃣ Bullish Indicators: Momentum indicators like RSI and MACD are showing signs of reversal, suggesting that bulls might be ready to take control.
Steps to Confirm the Bounce:
✅ Strong 4H or Daily Close Above GETTEX:92K – A solid candle close above this level would confirm demand.
✅ Volume Surge During the Rebound – Watch for increasing buying pressure to validate the move.
✅ Retest Holding as Support – If BTC retests GETTEX:92K and holds, it strengthens the bullish case.
⚠️ Beware of Fakeouts – Sudden dips below GETTEX:92K followed by quick recoveries could indicate stop-hunt moves.
Risk Management Strategies:
🔒 Use Stop-Loss Orders – Protect your capital in case of unexpected breakdowns.
🎯 Position Sizing – Ensure your trade aligns with your overall strategy and risk tolerance.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always DYOR before making any investment decisions. 🔍
FIRST IT WAS MONTHLY REJECTION, NOW WEEKLY DOUBLE TOP WITH BTC!With the weekly double top, BTCUSD outlook is looking bearish and will likely dip to its mean…
N.B!
- BTCUSD price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast.
- Let emotions and sentiments work for you
- ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades
#ethusd
#crypto
#btcusd
AT CryptoScan: BTCUSD downside target is...As highlighted previously, there were issues with the recent BTCUSD Bitcoin rally... and so it is very clear now that there is a TOP resistance to breakout eventually. This is marked out by the green box at about 107K. Furthermore, breaking back into the purple box also suggests a breakdown out of the lower end... to which just about happened. The thing is, this is only a beginning and there should be about 5 to 8 days more of overall sliding down.
Notice that the candlesticks of late are getting longer and longer? This is indicative of momentum and as it falls over the cliff, it would continue until it stops. Meanwhile, it just is about to break the SuperTrend support.
So expect more downside...
I marked out the immediate TDST at 89,164, expecting that over the next 5 days shou;ld breakdown below that level. The next TDST is at 69,284... and I think this is a little too far down.
Looking for two bounce areas at 88K and 75K for reaccumulation, some time in mid- to end- February. That's the plan.
OTHERS.D Potential Bottom forming / Close to happening?
The OTHERS.D chart represents the total market caps of all coins excluding the top 10.
This chart can help you identify the strength of altcoins and the times to scale into altcoins.
In the past, during bull markets, we’ve seen OTHERS.D experience huge rallies, but always prior to this happening, we see "altcoin capitulation," where OTHERS.D corrects hard, causing fear and uncertainty across the board for altcoins. This is the necessary step that has to happen in order for things to "align" before the actual alt season comes — the one when real rotation money flows from Bitcoin into altcoins, something we have yet to see for the vast amount of altcoins across the board due to Bitcoin being very strong.
The chart here is kept as simple as I could keep it, because I tend to think we overcomplicate things.
Per cycle, there are 3 components:
1. Bottom
2. Mid-cycle rally
3. Deep and nasty correction across the board for altcoins
We either put in a double bottom for the OTHERS.D chart or we go on to have a "bear trap" / "spring" event. Both come with major altcoin capitulation across the board. These painful times serve as great opportunities for those who buy the fear and sell the greed.
Invalidation of this idea would be a weekly close below 8.22%.
Bitcoin under $100k again...Is it now Bearish?In late November 2024, we believed that BINANCE:BTCUSD 's momentum rating shifted from 'Bullish' to 'Warning' Territory.
We have not since re-classified this rating, and Bitcoin remains in a position which may warrant caution and high-volatility.
With the price of BTC again retracing beneath the $100k USD mark, further downside caution may be warranted.
What's next for Bitcoin? Stay tuned for more updates...
Short Term Pain for Long Term GainAfter an amazing and wild week last week, I believe tomorrow will be the start of an even crazier one. Trump Tariffs, Oil and Gas up along with the US Dollar, while tech is on the verge of another break down. Will Bitcoin finally break below 89k, while Gold and Silver possibly break to the upside? Exciting times if you're ready for it.
$BTC Remains Bullish Despite Tariff FearsMarket is panicking over Tariff Wars, but ₿itcoin continues to remain in a bullish uptrend.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC got rejected hard at $104k on the Weekly, and has closed below the 9WMA.
Strong possibility of price trading $94-91k. A range for a few weeks might appear painful, but will give the market time to reset and accumulate all that liquidity for the next leg up.
Price is nowhere close to the 20 or 50WMA, so there’s nothing really to worry about structurally at this point.
The Bull Case is price is closing above the .382 Fib, so we could slingshot up if we get some bullish catalysts next week.
WHEN IN DOUBT, ZOOM OUT.
BTCUSD I'm waiting patiently :)I have been waiting patiently since January 20 (Trump's inauguration). The coming weeks will show how justified my patience was.
BTC - 4H Key Support Zone & Potential ReversalBINANCE:BTCUSDT is currently at the bottom of a descending channel on the 4H timeframe, aligning with a key support level. Given the broader bullish trend on higher timeframes, this zone could provide a strong foundation for a rebound.
📊 Key Observations:
Descending Channel Support: Price is testing the lower boundary of the channel, historically acting as a reversal point.
Bullish Higher Timeframe Context: Despite the short-term downtrend, the macro trend remains bullish, increasing the probability of an upside reaction.
Potential Targets: If support holds, the first target would be the mid-channel zone (~$100K), followed by a move toward the upper boundary around $104K-$106K.
💡 Trading Plan:
1️⃣ Watch for bullish confirmation signals like a bounce with strong volume or bullish divergences.
2️⃣ If support fails, BTC could dip further before a stronger reaction—stay alert!
3️⃣ Higher timeframe traders may see this as a buy-the-dip opportunity in an overall bullish market.
🚀 The next move could be massive! Follow for real-time updates and expert analysis! 🔔
