MicroStrategy Long-Term Top Based on Perfect Fib RatiosSeveral long-term signals on Bitcoin are indicating a potential top including long-term price and time ratios, long-term momentum indicators, as well as wisemen on weekly and daily charts. This made me look more closely at MSTR, which is also exhibiting significant signs of a potential top.
Some of these on this weekly chart include:
Larger Degree (red boxes)
Wave-C = 161.8%(B) in price
Wave-C = 138.2%(A) in price
wave-C = 100%(B) in time
wave-A = 25%(B+C) in time
Smaller Degree (green boxes)
Wave-c = 50%(a+b) in time
wave-c = wave-a in price
Complex structure potentially ending with a zigzag
Based on all these factors, the chances of a top here are high. However, if we do make new all time highs it would be a good idea to reverse and go long crypto again, as it would likely mean that all these signals are just a MASSIVE bear trap and there could be significant upside left. For now, as long as we remain directly under these long-term price/time targets on both BTC and MSTR, combined with long-term sell signals, the chances of a trend reversal in crypto is high.
There's also significant bearishness in virtually all global asset markets right now, which could in a worst case scenario last for 1-2 years, and possibly be worse than 2022. It is difficult to say at this point what the trigger for the coming crash could be, possible chaos surrounding the transition to a new administration, high rates putting pressure on commercial real estate and regional banks, some high profile financial failures, a major war, or something else that i can't predict
Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)
BITCOIN BULLRUN AFTER 4TH HALVINGThe following chart is a weekly Bitcoin chart. It can be seen that after the halving occurs there will be a very sharp increase in prices.
This cycle repeats itself with a global scope, from each halving.
If we look deeper into each halving, let's look at before the halving and also after the halving.
The increase occurred on average 500 days before the halving and also 500 days after the halving.
After 500 days after the halving, there is usually a large correction and a prolonged bearish trend occurs until 500 days before the halving, which finally occurs gradually.
At the time this analysis was written, Bitcoin was at 95K after peaking at 106K.
like the previous bull run after the halving, bitcoin will reach its peak and experience a deep correction and reach the next highest peak for the second time.
This may have the same pattern in the 2024 bullrun this time. After the peak, Bitcoin will experience a correction, perhaps in the range of 75K to 65K (I took this benchmark from the Ichimocu Cloud support) and will rise again to reach its second all time high in mid to late 2025 in the range of 150K to 170K to coincide with 500 days after the halving.
Until then Bitcoin will experience a bearish trend until it reaches 500 days before the 5th halving.
This pattern will probably continue to repeat itself considering the increasing adoption from both retail and corporations to countries and also the limited supply of Bitcoin which is one of the factors in increasing demand.
Bitcoin [BTC] - Trading Inside the Channel. Breakout when ?#BTC/USDT #Analysis
Description
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+ Bitcoin is currently trading inside the channel and price is around the support zone
+ Price touched support zone multiple times and this is the third touch of the resistance
+ I'm expecting the price to bounce back from this support zone.
+ If the price fails to hold the support then our idea is invalidated.
+ A bounce back from the support of the channel will push the price above 100
Follow the trade details in the chart.
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Enhance, Trade, Grow
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Best Regards,
VectorAlgo
Perfect startMorning folks,
Hopefully you had a great Xmas time... Today we do not have a lot to comment. Our view we've explained in previous update
Setup has started just perfect. Once upside AB-CD was done, the H&S starts. Now we consider two points - 89.5-90K, mostly because of Fib support and oversold on daily chart [ /b]
And the major one around 82K as a H&S downside target. 10-year yields are keep climbing with 4.75% target by our view. So the pressure on all dollar rivals will remain for some time.
Thus, no longs, if you've missed entry on top, no problems, you could try to step in on minor intraday pullback.
This volatility period is until December 28
Hello, traders.
If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please click "Boost" as well.
Have a nice day today.
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(BTCUSDT 1W chart)
The volatility period on the 1W chart is until January 5, 2025.
Even though the price has risen, the HA-High indicator on the 1W chart is showing signs of being created at the 94742.35 point.
If the HA-High indicator on the 1W chart is created at the 94742.35 point when a new candle is created, it is important to check whether there is support near that point.
If it goes down, you should check whether there is support near the 1st and 2nd points indicated on the chart.
Eventually, the StochRSI indicator fell from the overbought zone and changed to a state where StochRSI < StochRSI EMA.
If the StochRSI indicator is located near the 50 point when a new candle is created, volatility may occur, so caution is required when trading.
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(1D chart)
The volatility period on the 1D chart is around December 27 (December 26-28).
Therefore, the key is whether it can rise after receiving support near 97821.58-98892.0 after passing this volatility period.
If not, you should check whether the movement occurs as explained in the 1W chart.
If it receives support near 97821.58-98892.0 and rises, it will continue the short-term uptrend.
However, since the high point boundary section is formed in the 101947.24-106133.74 section, whether this section can be broken upward is a point of interest.
Since the StochRSI indicator is currently located near the 50 point, there is a high possibility of volatility, so caution is required when trading.
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The DOM indicator is an indicator that comprehensively evaluates the DMI, OBV, and MOMENTUM indicators.
The Signal indicator is the EMA indicator of the DOM indicator.
The BW indicator is an indicator that comprehensively evaluates the MACD, StochRSI, OBV, and superTrend indicators.
The BW indicator is used to create the BW(0) and BW(100) indicators.
In addition, when it is located below the 0 point, it means that the decline is strong, and when it is located above the 0 point, it means that the rise is strong.
The DOM indicator indicates an upward trend when it rises based on the 0 point, and a downward trend when it falls.
When DOM > Signal is in the state, it is likely to show an upward trend, and when it is the opposite, it is likely to show a downward trend.
Therefore, when the BW indicator or DOM indicator shows an upward trend from the 0 point, aggressive buying is possible, and when it rises above the 0 point, it is the time to buy.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful transaction.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have maintained an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend.
Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025.
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(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the upward trend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, it is expected that this Fibonacci ratio will be used until 2026.
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No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
How to view and respond to this is up to you.
When the ATH is updated, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be used appropriately.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous when used as support and resistance.
This is because the user must directly select the important selection points required to create Fibonacci.
Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous when used for trading strategies.
1st : 44234.54
2nd : 61383.23
3rd : 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (Overshooting)
4th : 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (Overshooting)
5th : 178910.15
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Is Bitcoin Poised for a Rally? Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaMany are asking, where will Bitcoin head next? Looking at this four-hour chart, we can see equal lows and a notable dip into sell-side liquidity. My question is whether this is setting up for a pre-Christmas rally or not. I'll be watching for a potential buy opportunity if we see a bullish market structure break. If that doesn't happen, then there won't be a trade. This is not financial advice.
BTC Targets in 2024 & 2025As per fib tool, we can assume that BTC might hit these fib levels in this year or next year.
1.618 (102075.56)
2.618 (155599.53)
3.618 (209123.50)
Disclaimer: The information and analysis provided in this publication are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any securities. The author and TradingView are not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the content presented herein. Always consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Phemex Analysis $46: How to Navigate BTC Crazy December?!PHEMEX:BTCUSDT.P has been on a remarkable journey throughout December, marked by significant price volatility and dramatic shifts in market sentiment. After breaking the $100,000 milestone, BTC experienced a sharp drop to $90,600 on the same day (December 5th); only to gradually recover and reach a new all-time high of $108,452 by December 17th. However, following this surge and amidst the holiday season, the market has shown signs of slowing down. As we approach Christmas and New Year’s, many traders are taking profits or exiting their positions for festive celebrations, leading to a recent dip back towards the $90,000 area.
In light of these developments, it is crucial to analyze the current market conditions and evaluate potential trading strategies. By examining key support and resistance levels, we can identify several possible scenarios that may unfold in the coming days.
Possible Scenarios
1. Continued Consolidation:
BTC may continue to consolidate within the range of $108,000 and $88,700. This scenario suggests a period of sideways movement where price fluctuations are minimal.
Strategy: Traders can utilize a Neutral Grid Bot or Long Grid Bot to capitalize on small price movements within this range. This approach allows for profit generation from minor oscillations while minimizing risk exposure.
2. Temporary Retrace:
There is a possibility that BTC might experience a temporary retracement towards the $88,700 level or even drop further to around $86,170. Such a pullback could be triggered by profit-taking or shifts in market sentiment.
Strategy: Traders should remain vigilant for signs of support at these levels. If confirmed, it may present an opportunity to enter long positions at a lower price point.
3. Bullish Breakout:
Conversely, if positive news emerges—such as favorable regulatory developments or significant institutional investments—BTC could break above the $108,000 resistance level with high trading volume.
Strategy: A successful breakout could initiate a new bullish rally. Traders should look for entry points following the breakout confirmation, ideally with increased volume to validate the move.
Conclusion
The current landscape for Bitcoin presents multiple trading opportunities depending on how the market unfolds. Whether BTC consolidates, retraces, or breaks out will significantly influence trading strategies.
For those preferring stability, employing grid bots during consolidation may yield consistent returns. Conversely, traders anticipating volatility should prepare for potential retracements and bullish breakouts by setting appropriate stop-loss orders and entry points.
As always, staying updated on market news and technical indicators will be crucial in navigating these scenarios effectively.
Tips:
Trade Smarter, Not Harder with Phemex. Benefit from cutting-edge features like multiple watchlists, basket orders, and real-time strategy adjustments. Our unique scaled order system and iceberg order functionality give you a competitive edge.
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial or investment advice. Please conduct your own research (DYOR). Phemex is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss incurred or claimed to be caused by or in association with the use of or reliance on any content, goods, or services mentioned in this article.
Mastering BTC Levels: Predicting the Next MoveHere's an in-depth look at BTC's key levels 🔍
📍 Bullish and bearish zones mapped out
📈 Using ATR to target potential price ranges
Will BTC break out or stay range-bound? Share your thoughts! #BTC
Context:
Key Levels: The chart highlights major support and resistance zones using green (bullish levels) and red (bearish levels) bands.
Bullish Day/Week Levels: Green zones where bullish momentum could sustain or start.
Bearish Day/Week Levels: Red zones where bearish sentiment could dominate.
ATR (Average True Range): The "Day ATR" and "Week ATR" indicate potential ranges BTC might move within, helping traders set targets or stops.
Price Action: BTC seems to be fluctuating within these predefined zones, offering insights for both breakout and range-bound strategies.
Directional Arrows: Green and red arrows suggest potential bullish or bearish trajectories from current price levels.
Close Day Marker: The "Close Day" line highlights the critical closing price, often serving as a benchmark for future market direction.
Insights:
The chart is ideal for short-term traders looking for high-probability entries and exits.
It emphasizes the importance of respecting these predefined zones to maximize risk-reward.
Bitcoin Dominance - Falling Wedge Broken - Altseason is here #BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance) #Analysis
Description
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+ Bitcoin dominance has formed a nice falling wedge pattern and support is broken successfully.
+ This was the moment that everyone was waiting for, in 2025 we are gonna see a huge bull run, greater than last bull run.
+ Falling wedge is a bearish pattern and the dominance has successfully broken down from the wedge and heading towards the next support at around 39% (This is gonna be a the peak of the alt season)
+ 2025 jan will be huge for altcoins.
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Enhance, Trade, Grow
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Feel free to share your thoughts and insights. Don't forget to like and follow us for more trading ideas and discussions.
Best Regards,
VectorAlgo
$BTC correction bottom is $85000All the fanboys—Crypto Rover, Ash Crypto, Satoshi Stacker, Banter, etc.—are singing the same tune: *"We're back!"* They claim CRYPTOCAP:BTC is still in a bullish pattern, that the December 20th -15% crash was just an anomaly, and so on.
As usual, these CRYPTOCAP:BTC enthusiasts are acting like PR agents for Blackrock and Sailor, hyping the market to attract your money.
If you're into altcoins, be cautious—the charts are telling a different story than their optimistic chatter.
Remember June 2024? They were promising rewards if CRYPTOCAP:BTC hit $80K by the end of the week. How generous! And yet, CRYPTOCAP:BTC dropped -31%, with many altcoins plunging -80% over the following three months.
I sent my weekly chart showing bearish divergence to all of them back then. None paid attention, and I was right.
This time, while we're not in an identical scenario (the weekly timeframe still looks bullish), the daily timeframe shows a clear downward trend. Until this plays out, there's no reason to get overly optimistic.
This means we could see selling pressure for the next week, dragging most altcoins down with CRYPTOCAP:BTC as the correction completes. The expected bottom for CRYPTOCAP:BTC is around $85,000, give or take. After that, the bull run should resume—I don’t think we’re heading into a bear market just yet.
As always, DYOR!
Comparing Christmas 2020 vs 2024#Altcoin Marketcap #Analysis
Description
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+ Comparing the altcoin marketcap on 2020 vs 2024 Christmas (pre bull run years), during the christmas week altcoin had a significant drop in the marketcap and after holidays we saw significant growth in the marketcap pushing the altcoin prices higher.
+ I'm seeing similar pattern in this bull run, in 2025 we are doing to see a huge bull run and during this Christmas week it was expected to see some drawdowns.
+ I'm expecting the market to see a complete recovery in the first two weeks of the Jan 2025.
+ I'm doing DCA for most of my Altcoin holdings and increasing my investment in some AI based tokens.
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Enhance, Trade, Grow
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Feel free to share your thoughts and insights. Don't forget to like and follow us for more trading ideas and discussions.
Best Regards,
VectorAlgo
Alt season is just around the corner#BTC.D #Analysis
Description
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+ Bitcoin dominance had an unsuccessfull breakout from the resistance line.
+ dominance is around the resistance zone and now it is headed in the right direction
+ a drop in the bitcoin dominance will push the altcoin prices higher
+ if the dominance is headed in the right direction we can expect a altseason soon.
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Enhance, Trade, Grow
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Feel free to share your thoughts and insights.
Don't forget to like and follow us for more trading ideas and discussions.
Best Regards,
VectorAlgo
$ETH.D x $BTC.D CRYPTOCAP:ETH.D x CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D ⏳
While #Ethereum dominance is at all-time lows in terms of momentum, it is also poised for a comeback in the Demand Zone
#Bitcoin dominance is poised for a comeback in the Supply Zone region, even though it is at all-time highs in terms of momentum
The current situation can be seen as an important indicator for #Altcoins, but the rise of bitcoin and the decline of bitcoin dominance will be a sign of the #Altseason we have been waiting for so far.
BTC Long term analysisBitcoin Weekly Analysis: Ascending Channel in Play
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading within a well-defined ascending parallel channel on the weekly time frame, indicating a strong bullish trend. Here's the breakdown of the setup:
📈 Channel Boundaries:
BTC price is respecting the channel's upper resistance and lower support (yellow lines).
The midline (blue dashed line) acts as dynamic support/resistance, guiding the price action within the channel.
💡 Current Scenario:
The price is trending toward the upper boundary, showing bullish momentum.
A potential retracement back to the midline is expected after touching the resistance, as illustrated by the green path.
🚀 Bullish Case:
A breakout above the upper boundary could signal accelerated bullish momentum.
BTC might continue rallying beyond the channel if volume supports the breakout.
⚠️ Bearish Case:
A breakdown below the lower boundary could signal a trend reversal, leading to bearish pressure.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch:
Upper Channel Resistance: Critical zone for a breakout.
Midline Support: Retesting this level could offer a buy opportunity in case of a pullback.
Lower Channel Support: Watch for potential trend invalidation below this level.
📊 Conclusion:
The ascending channel suggests BTC remains in a strong uptrend on the weekly time frame. Staying within the channel keeps the bullish structure intact, offering opportunities for both breakout and retracement traders.
Do you agree with this setup? Share your thoughts or ideas in the comments! 👍
BTC USD bullish pennant inside a rising broadening wedgeBullish pennant forming for continuation inside a big rising broadening wedge
If successful this pennant could take bitcoin to 102k as first stop before a second consolidation.
Right now trading the pennant, not the broadening pattern, which is still forming but could reach a target around 111k
Bitcoin can leave pennant and then rise to resistance levelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. Looking at the chart, we can see how the price entered to upward channel, where it soon reached the 94500 support level and then broke it. Next, the price made a retest and then tried to grow more, but later turned around and made a correction below a support level, after which in a short time, it backed up. Then BTC some time traded near the support level and later rose to the seller zone, where it at once turned around and rebounded down until to 90500 points. But soon, BTC backed up to the channel and then started to grow to a 103000 resistance level. When it reached this level, the price broke it and soon reached the resistance line of the channel, then it exited and rose to 108300 points, after which turned around and made a downward impulse inside the downward pennant. In this pattern, the price broke 103000 with 94500 levels and reached the support line of the pennant, which is located inside the buyer zone. Then price bounced up from this area and a not long time ago fell back and then rose to the resistance line of the pennant. Now, the price continues to trades near this line and I expect that the price can little decline below the resistance line. Then it started to grow to 103000 resistance level, thereby exiting from the pennant. For this case, I set my TP at this level. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀