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Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)

BTC Bitcoin Dont Panic Here This Is A Perfect Measured MoveI like the line chart because it filters out the noise and only shows the close prices. As you can see Bitcoin plays out these double top measured moves almost to the T perfectly. I can go back further but I dont need to its fairly similar. Bitcoin will bounce around here for a bit and come dow to close the 5 day at the measured move around 82k then its back to the races. We're not going to crash, its just getting started. It may wick below 82 but on a closing basis on the 5 day, which has been very accurate in its history, 82k is where the measured move is. Dont fall for the bearish we're gonna crash stuff. Bitcoin has a long way to go before any top. Not financial advice just my opinion.
Long
by Bitgolder
2
TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #23👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro! Let's dive into the analysis of Bitcoin and other important crypto indices. In this analysis, I want to review the important futures triggers in today's New York session. Yesterday, the market was rejected from a significant area and experienced a bearish leg. 📰 Before starting the analysis, it's worth noting that today Trump has a very important speech about tariffs, and if he discusses cryptocurrencies, the market may experience significant fluctuations. Therefore, be cautious about opening high-risk positions today. ⏳ 1-Hour Timeframe In the 1-hour timeframe, as observed yesterday, after the price rose from the 91422 area, I mentioned that if the 94355 resistance were broken, we could enter a long position, and if the 91422 area were broken, we could enter a short position. 🔍 That exact scenario occurred, and after the price created a lower high compared to 94355, we witnessed a significant bearish momentum, resulting in a large bearish candle that engulfed several previous candles, broke the 91422 support, and reached the 89318 area. ⚡️ After this event and several resting and pullback candles that hit the 0.382 Fibonacci area, the price proceeded with its next bearish leg, breaking the 89318 area near the 0.618 Fibonacci zone. With this PRZ break, we can say that all bullish market momentum was wiped out, and the price fully corrected relative to the bullish leg it had previously made, reaching the 85204 area. ✅ This morning, this area was also breached, and the price executed a Downside Extension to the 1.272 Fibonacci Retracement, meaning the market has fully engulfed the bullish leg and even dropped an additional 27% from that leg to date. 📉 Currently, there is support at the 83151 area, which coincides with the 1.272 Fibonacci. If this area is breached, we can expect the Downside Extension to continue, with the next support at the Fibonacci 1.618, a crucial Fibonacci zone. If this area is also breached, there is a static support at 78940. 💥 In the RSI, note the significant bearish momentum in the market. If the RSI can re-enter and stay in the Oversell zone, the likelihood of breaking 83151 or even 78940 will increase. 📊 Regarding volume, as you can see, it mostly shows a ranging structure with a few high-volume candles within this range that can be considered Selloff candles. After these candles, the price had several resting and corrective candles. ✨ Overall, the volume is ranging, and we will see whether buying or selling volume enters the market based on Trump's statements. 🔼 For a risky long position today, you can open a long position with the breakout of 85204. I suggest this trigger because Trump has a speech today, and if this news is favorable for crypto, Bitcoin could move upward again under the news influence, and I think the risk is worth taking if this area breaks. ❌ However, open this position with the minimal risk your strategy allows, and ensure that no more than 0.5% or 0.25% of your capital is at risk if this position hits a stop-loss. 💫 No more to discuss about Bitcoin; let's move on to the analysis of dominances to see what triggers we can find for altcoins. 👑 BTC.D Analysis Let's look at the Bitcoin dominance analysis. As you can see, yesterday I defined a resistance area at 61.48 for you and mentioned that the price might get rejected from this area and the dominance might turn bearish again, which did happen, albeit slightly off at 61.61. ⭐️ Therefore, I have moved this line and adjusted it to this area. Currently, we are witnessing several bearish candles in a row from Bitcoin's dominance, and it seems likely that the dominance could move back down to the 60.40 floor with the bearish momentum it has, and as I've said in the past few days, I still see Bitcoin's dominance trend as ranging. 🎯 The dominance is not very analyzable at the moment, and we need to wait and see which side the box will break. If the box breaks from the 62.19 area, we can say that a lot of money is likely to enter Bitcoin, and Bitcoin could move more than altcoins. If the dominance breaks from the 60.40 area downwards, we can say that more money will enter altcoins. 📅 Total2 Analysis Moving on to the Total2 analysis, yesterday I told you that if the 1.14 level is broken, you could enter a short position if Bitcoin's dominance was rising, which indeed occurred, and the dominance of Bitcoin was rising while this break happened, and the dominance had not yet been rejected from the ceiling, which is why the short position you opened on altcoins could have been much more profitable. 🎲 However, as you can see, I have moved this trigger and transferred it to the 1.13 area because I think this area is cleaner, and as you can see, the price has reacted to it once and is likely to react to this area more in the future than to the 1.14 area. 🔑 Overall, the gray areas you see drawn on the chart are not very important supports and resistances, so I easily move them if the price does not show the reaction I want, and it is not very important to me if their position changes. ☘️ However, as you can see, after the price broke the 1.13 area, it executed its main bearish leg downwards, even breaking the 1.07 area and hitting a shadow to the 1.01 area as you can see, and is currently in a corrective phase. 🔽 The 1.07 area could be very important today, and if this area is broken, we can say that the price could make a deeper correction. But if this does not happen and the price is rejected from this area, we can say that altcoins are ready to execute their next bearish leg at least down to the 1.01 area. ✅ Depending on Bitcoin's dominance, you can decide to open a position on Bitcoin itself today or on altcoins. As you can see, the dominance candles being set suggest a bearish dominance, so if the market gives a short position, Bitcoin will be better than altcoins, but while you are reading this analysis, if you want to open a position, it might be that the dominance turns bullish, in which case a short position on altcoins would be better than on Bitcoin. 📅 USDT.D Analysis Let's look at the Tether dominance analysis. As I told you yesterday, if the 4.82 level was broken, the dominance could start a bullish leg, which did happen, and the market activated its short trigger in Total2 and altcoins, and the dominance moved upwards, even breaking the 5.08 area and with a pullback to this area, reached 5.30. 🧲 This area was previously around 5.21, but as I told you, I easily move lines that are gray if the price does not respect them, and for this reason, I moved this area to 5.30, as you can see, the price has reacted to it and now seems to be correcting. 📊 Unfortunately, I don't have a specific trigger for a bearish turn in Tether dominance, but this 5.30 trigger is a very suitable one for it to turn more bullish, and in my opinion, if the dominance wants to turn more bullish and break this area, it could move again up to the 5.50 area. 🔼 But in case of a correction in dominance, the first very important support exists at 5.08, and the dominance could correct to this area. 📌 Final Words Overall, I think the market today is not very analyzable and can have a lot of sharp and emotional movements, and everything depends on Trump's speech. ❗️ I suggest that if you think the market will go up with Trump's speech, hold a long position, and if you think it will go down, hold a short position if triggers are activated. 🎲 But open this position with the minimum risk you can and are allowed to take because Trump's speech can create a lot of sharp movements in the market, and if you do not risk manage and set a stop-loss, your position can easily be liquidated, so be careful to risk the minimum amount that your strategy allows you to open these positions. ❌ Disclaimer ❌ Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel. Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
by tradecitypro
3
Bitcoin may rebound up from buyer zone to 94100 resistance levelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. A few days ago, the price was moving inside a downward channel, where it reached the support line and immediately bounced back up to the channel’s resistance. After that, BTC continued its decline, testing the resistance level, which aligned with the seller zone. The price briefly dipped below this level but quickly reversed and rebounded. Eventually, Bitcoin exited the channel and moved into a range, reaching its upper boundary before turning downward again. In a short period, the price dropped to the seller zone, where it consolidated for some time. BTC then attempted to push higher but failed and resumed its decline. Breaking below the 94100 resistance level, the price moved further down, fluctuating between support and resistance lines. Bitcoin eventually fell to the support line, breaking through the 83400 support level, which aligned with the buyer zone. However, this breakdown turned out to be a false move, as BTC immediately rebounded and surged back above that level. Currently, BTC is continuing its upward movement. I anticipate that the price may first test the buyer zone before resuming its growth. Additionally, if it manages to break through the resistance line, it could keep climbing higher. With this in mind, my TP is set at the 94100 resistance level. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Long
by LegionQ8
16
Bitcoin's 60-day Cycle path to another All-time highBitcoin's Next Big Move: The 60-Day & 24-Week Cycle in Action The crypto market is getting exciting again! When BTC dropped below $80K, people freaked out, calling for a bear market. But those who understand cycles knew this was just another bottom forming before the next move up. Premium Strategy Master members already knew which coins I loaded up on at the cycle lows. Why Did Bitcoin Crash Below $80K and Then Pump to $95K? Bitcoin moves in 60-day and 24-week cycles. A full 24-week cycle is made up of three 60-day cycles, and when we hit a weekly cycle bottom, the next 60-day cycle usually kicks off with a big pump. That’s exactly what we just saw! What’s Next for Bitcoin? We’re still in a bull market, and everything is lining up for more upside: The 2-week cycle indicator is dipping below 20 (oversold territory). The 1-week cycle indicator (red) just flipped up. The 3-day cycle indicator is also moving higher. This all points to Bitcoin pushing past $100K soon. On top of that, this is the start of a new 24-week cycle. The first 60-day cycle is almost always bullish, even in rougher market conditions, with at least 35-40 days of upward movement. Right now, we’re only on Day 3 of this fresh 60-day cycle, which means the market is primed for more upside.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TheStrategyMaster
1
BITCOIN 2025 - A MODERATE SCENARIOBitcoin’s price trajectory hinges on critical technical levels. Should Bitcoin fall below the key support zones—referred to here as the 'red lines' and t he bold black line —it risks entering a bear market, potentially signaling the end of the current bull cycle. These levels are pivotal for sustaining the parabolic bull market’s final leg. Following an initial decline from current levels, Bitcoin is projected to drop to approximately $70K, where it may consolidate for a couple of months. For the best-case scenario to unfold, Bitcoin must hold above the critical $70-77K threshold and execute a sharp V-shaped recovery. From there, a robust rally could propel it beyond $100K around August, culminating in the cycle’s peak in September at its highest point. While this outcome appears unlikely in the short term, it remains the most favorable projection, contingent on Bitcoin maintaining strength above the $70K line. Failure to do so could prematurely terminate the bull cycle.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by maxty
1
Bitcoin & Trump Effect: A Short-Term Pump or Sustainable Rally?Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) started to rise as I expected in the previous post , but Donald Trump helped double the momentum of Bitcoin yesterday. But the question here is whether the correction of Bitcoin is over or if this is an increase in the chance of exit. Bitcoin is trying to break the Heavy Resistance zone($93,300_$89,250) . According to the theory of Elliott waves , it seems that Bitcoin has succeeded in completing wave 4 and we should wait for wave 5 . Note : Due to the high momentum of wave 3, it is possible that wave 5 is a truncated wave. I expect Bitcoin to rise to at least $95,000 in the coming hours. The next target of Bitcoin can be Resistance lines and 100_SMA(Daily) . What do you think about Bitcoin movement? Time to escape or wait for a new All-Time High(ATH) to be created? Note: If Bitcoin goes below $89,000, we can expect Bitcoin to decline and the big CME Gap($91,610-$84,830) to be filled. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame. B e sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
23
How are 'Stategic Reserve' assets going to react?? Weve had plenty of scepticism come out over inclusion of altcoins in the strategic reserves. News reports on it undermining the reserve. We have also had Trumps cost cutting and tariffs pushing bearish pressure on the market. While ADA+XRP+SOL are sitting on previous all time highs. Even more troublesome is the unwinding of USDT. This may pull away one of the largest liquidity providers to the crypto space. This can be extremely bearish. I am myself however still bullish. I see rising fundamentals and a lot of room for upside in L1s and applications token price.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by SoftQuant
Trump's Bombshell Strategic Reserve Announcement.Let's summarize the situation. We were on the edge of slipping into a bear market, with CRYPTOCAP:BTC under heavy selling pressure and looking bearish on daily, hourly, and weekly timeframes. A lot of people were caught off guard, selling their crypto to prepare for shorts and ending up sidelined—I was one of them, and I’m pissed. Since I live in Asia, I was asleep when it happened, and so was the entire Asian market. Then, conveniently, Trump announced the strategic crypto reserve, which was originally scheduled for Friday to coincide with the White House crypto summit. Meanwhile, the tariffs are set to take effect on Tuesday. On the global stage: - The rejection of Zelensky has pushed Europe to react, with some leaders now considering sending troops to Ukraine. This could seriously complicate things for the Trump administration and potentially escalate into WWIII. No joke, this is a serious situation. - Israel has decided to destroy Gaza completely and is now enforcing a full-scale siege, which will cause massive international backlash. The situation there never been so bad. - Recession fears are mounting, and we can see markets starting to shake and correct. And then Trump drops his crypto reserve announcement… - This was a sloppy reveal—posted only on his own platform, not on X—which caused panic, as people scrambled to verify the source, thinking it was fake news. - Even worse, the initial announcement didn’t mention Bitcoin or Ethereum! Instead, they listed CRYPTOCAP:XRP , Cardano, and Solana as part of the reserve, which made people think their accounts were hacked. Later, they corrected it, clarifying that CRYPTOCAP:BTC and CRYPTOCAP:ETH are at the "heart" of the reserve. So yeah… Sunday night, completely unexpected, and poorly executed. What does this mean for CRYPTOCAP:BTC ? - Weekly timeframe: Nothing has changed—it’s still in a serious correction, and a 10% daily pump isn’t enough to reverse the trend. My previous analysis is still valid. - Daily timeframe: The MACD has reset, and RSI is now in a neutral zone. This suggests a potential short-term pump over the next few days. - Key levels: Supports at $91k and $80k are back, but $99k remains a major resistance and could reject $BTC. - Leverage & liquidity: A massive $4.3 billion in longs has been built up, meaning we’re likely to retest the downside to liquidate them. - CME gap: We just created a 10%+ CME gap, which will most likely be filled. Conclusion: Optimism is back, and we could see a short altseason as capital flows into altcoins, now that some are officially part of the U.S. national reserve. BUT the global situation remains extremely concerning: - War tensions in Europe and the Middle East - Recession risks still on the table - Uncertainty about how this crypto reserve will actually work This is great news, but going all-in on longs at this point seems risky. How long will this momentum last? More than a week? I’m not sure. Technically, the correction isn’t over. Unlike December 2024—when Trump’s election happened at the end of a correction, with a bullish MACD crossover—we are now at the START of a weekly correction, which could last until May 2025. So yeah, fundamentally bullish, but technically, the correction still has room to go.
by CryptoNikkoid
12
PO3 and Fibonacci: The Path to $128,000I've always been an advocate of analyzing data deeply and finding patterns where others see chaos. And today I want to share my perspective on one of the most exciting opportunities that are taking shape right now. PO3 is not just an indicator, but a real key to understanding how the market shapes its moves. When you combine it with Fibonacci levels, a unique picture opens up in front of you that gives you a glimpse into the future. This is exactly the case when the data speaks for itself. Now, analyzing the current dynamics, I come to the conclusion that we can expect a significant rise in price to the level of 128,000 dollars. PO3 shows a clear direction and Fibonacci levels confirm the potential for such a move. So, my prediction: $128,000 is not the limit of dreams, but a realistic goal that we can achieve. And those who understand this trend have a unique advantage. Alex Kostenich, Horban Brothers.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by horbanbrothers
4
Bitcoin - Just Objectively Look At The Chart.Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) remains very bullish lately: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Many traders are actually calling the top on Bitcoin but if we objectively look at the chart, situation is entirely different. First, Bitcoin just broke above the previous cycle high with a massive candle and second, we still have a valid rising channel acting as a major support. Levels to watch: $70.000, $300.000 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by basictradingtv
19
Trump’s crypto picks struggle: Saylor sees $200T market cap Bitcoin has fallen below the 78.6% retracement of Sunday’s surge and is now less than 2K above the level it was at when Trump tweeted about a strategic reserve including Bitcoin and a few altcoins. Some of the smaller cryptocurrencies mentioned by Trump—Cardano, Solana, and Ripple—are holding up slightly better but have also dropped. Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, whose company holds nearly 500,000 BTC, strongly endorsed Trump’s proposed strategic crypto reserve in a CNBC interview. Saylor also predicted Bitcoin’s market cap could reach $20 trillion and eventually $200 trillion, projecting a price of $13 million per BTC by 2045. In a bullish scenario, he sees Bitcoin hitting $49 million, while a bearish case could still put it at $3 million.
BLACKBULL:BTCUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
LTC Litecoin Could Do One More Round Of Bouncing Within WedgeThis is a possible scenario here. This is in line format not candles so wicks could be lower than than this. Lines remove all the wicks and are just on an open and close basis, kind of cleaning up the noise. This is not guaranteed to happen but it is a possible scenario before we break out again around the end of March. I'll post below a candle chart as well so you can see those levels. As long as we stay within this wedge on a closing basis and within the channel on the candle format then we should be fine. If we break down below the wedge or channel and close below it then thats not going to be very good. I don't see this happening thats just worst case scenario. Follow me for more updates. Not financial advice. Thank you
COINBASE:LTCUSD
by Bitgolder
5
Trump Pumped the MarketTrump just dropped a game-changer: a U.S. Crypto Reserve, stacking Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA). He’s talking big, calling the U.S. the "Crypto Capital of the World." The market lost its mind: BTC surged 8% to $90,828, ETH jumped 13% to $2,516, and the altcoin crew, XRP, SOL, and ADA, exploded with gains of 33%, 22%, and over 60%, respectively. That was the initial rush. Over the last 12 hours, things have settled, prices are holding, but the hype’s taking a breather. All eyes are on the White House Crypto Summit for what’s next. What’s Really Going On? This could be massive. If the U.S. government starts holding crypto, it might drag big institutions into the game, and some solid regulations could calm the wild west vibes. But hold up, Trump’s got his own crypto side hustle (think meme coins and sketchy Justin Sun connections), which raises some red flags. The market loved the hype, huge spikes everywhere, but the quick cooldown shows traders aren’t fully sold yet. Other countries might panic or jump on the bandwagon, so expect more chaos either way. Your Bags: Hold, Buy, or Bail? If you’re sitting on BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, or ADA, this could pump your portfolio long-term, especially if the summit brings real substance, not just noise. Trump’s involvement, though? That’s tricky, it could warp the market in unpredictable ways. Details are thin, and crypto’s still a rollercoaster. The big pump was exciting, but the quiet after suggests we’re in a wait-and-see spot. Hard proof always trumps promises. How to Trade This (No Nonsense) Know Your Coins: Don’t jump in blind. BTC’s the heavyweight champ, ETH’s the smart money, XRP’s got speed, SOL’s lightning, ADA’s eco-friendly, pick what fits your style. Spread It Out: This market’s a monster, mix in some stablecoins or stocks so you’re not riding one wave. Stay Sharp: X is your go-to for real-time buzz, cross-check with CoinDesk and Reuters, but filter the noise. Summit news will shake things up. Protect Yourself: Set stop-losses, volatility’s brutal, and headlines flip on a dime. Key Levels to Watch: Set alerts, BTC’s $90k- GETTEX:92K is the big fight, ETH’s $2,500 is critical, XRP’s $2.17-$2.50 could swing hard. Stay tight on these. The Bottom Line: Trump’s crypto move rattled the cage, but it’s not a free ride. Keep your wits about you, watch those levels, and don’t chase the hype blindly. The summit’s the next big trigger, brace for impact. This is a chess match, not a quick gamble, so trade smart and guard your stack.
by MonoCoinSignal
2
93576.0-94742.35 : Uptrend conversion zone Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Boost". Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- (BTCUSDT 1D chart) The key is whether the price can maintain above the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart and rise above 97226.92. If it is supported near 93576.0-94742.35, it is expected to turn into an uptrend. If not, it is important whether it is supported near 89294.25. The reason is that if it falls below 89294.25 again, it is highly likely to eventually touch the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart. This volatility period is March 3-5. - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful trade. -------------------------------------------------- - ​​Big picture I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC. (BTCUSD 12M chart) Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been in an upward trend since 2015. In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market. Accordingly, the bull market is expected to continue until 2025. - (LOG chart) Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the upward trend is decreasing. Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective. Therefore, we expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future. - The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015. In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend. The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019. Therefore, it is expected that this Fibonacci ratio will be used until 2026. - No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving. How to view and respond to this is up to you. When the ATH is updated, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be used appropriately. However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous when used as support and resistance. This is because the user must directly select the important selection points required to create Fibonacci. Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous when used for trading strategies. 1st : 44234.54 2nd : 61383.23 3rd : 89126.41 101875.70-106275.10 (Overshooting) 4th : 134018.28 151166.97-157451.83 (Overshooting) 5th : 178910.15 -----------------
by readCrypto
Bitcoin: A US Reserve CurrencyCME: Micro Bitcoin Futures ( CME:MBT1! ) On the morning of March 2nd, President Donald Trump posted a tweet to reinforce his commitment to a Crypto Strategic Reserve, including XRP, SOL and ADA. Cryptocurrency market took off immediately. Despite not being mentioned in the tweet, Bitcoin shot up from $78,400 to $83,900, and Ethereum from $2,090 to $2,240. Later in the afternoon, President Trump posted an update and clarified that BTC and ETH will be in the Reserve. “I also love Bitcoin and Ethereum!”, he tweeted. At the time of this writing, BTC is quoted $94,308, up 20.3% since the first tweet. ETH is trading at $2,520, up 20.6% within the day. We are in a new age of cryptocurrencies, where BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL and ADA just gained the official backing of the US Government. This day has been in the making for months. • On May 24, 2024, then presidential candidate Trump promised to launch a national crypto stockpile if he wins the election. Investors warmed to this idea and Bitcoin lifted 18% • On November 5, 2024, Trump won the US election. Market cheered for the most pro-crypto president and Bitcoin shot up 57% in a month • On January 23, 2025, President Trump signed the “Executive Order to establish United States leadership on digital financial technology.” Bitcoin went up 17% • Recent events have brought bitcoin down 28% since reaching its all-time-high of $109,241. In a matter of two tweets, the crypto market has completely turned around Bitcoin for the Long Haul A year ago, I published this market commentary, “A Bitcoin Bull Run?”, and laid out the key drivers for bitcoin’s long-term rise. Limited supply, increased demand and excessive liquidity helped bitcoin prices doubled in a year. In my opinion, these tailwinds remains intact for bitcoin in the coming months. On top of these, we now have the explicit endorsement from a sitting US president. Therefore, I stay bullish for holding bitcoin for the long haul. Trading with Micro Bitcoin Futures On “HODL with a Twist”, published on May 6, 2024, I explored using Futures Rollover strategy to invest in CME Micro Bitcoin Futures ( LSE:MBT ). This strategy worked nicely in the past, and I favor to continue deploying it. The paragraphs below provide a brief update with new contract months and new price data. Firstly, using futures over spot bitcoin provides these compelling advantages: • Capital efficiency in using margins. A trader could invest with as little as $2,075 to take on the full exposure of $9,431 (1/10th of a bitcoin) • Futures contracts come with build-in leverage. For MBT, it is approximately 4.5 times (= 9431/2075). If bitcoin moves 10% in your favor, you could gain 45% with futures • Price protection. MBT has a daily price limit (limit-up and limit-down) at 10%. In a volatile day with big moves, the Exchange will pause trading at the prescribed limits Secondly, futures contracts have a limited lifespan that will influence the outcome of your trades and exit strategy. Micro Bitcoin futures are traded actively in the nearby March and April contracts. Liquidity in the back-month contracts has yet to pick up. Rollover is when a trader moves his position from the front month contract to another contract further in the future, prior to the expiration of his existing holding. Below is an illustration on how to hold a long MBT position overtime: • In March, a trader buys (going long) April contract (MBTJ5) at $94,308 • In April, the trader enters an offsetting trade, going short on MBTJ5, to close his existing position. He would book a profit or loss, determined by the difference in selling price and purchasing price • Simultaneously, the trader would buy May MBT contract (MBTK5) and re-establish a long position in Bitcoin • In May, the trader will close out MBTK5 (going short) and buy June (MBTM5) • The trader would repeat the above steps, so far as he holds a bullish view Finally, Bitcoin prices are extremely volatile. Holding spot Bitcoin with no leverage could face potential drawdown of 70%-80%. With the leverage in futures, a sharp price move in the wrong direction could quickly deplete the available fund and trigger margin calls. Trader could set up a stop-loss in the buy order, limiting the maximum loss. Hypothetically, he could set the stop-loss at $85,000 when executing long futures at $94,308. If bitcoin moves sharply down, the maximum loss will be $931 (= (94308-85000)*0.1). His margin account will be decreased to $1,144 from $2,075. To learn more about all the Micro futures and options contracts traded on CME Group platform, you can check out the following site: www.cmegroup.com Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:MBT1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
1