BTCUSD: Repeating the late 2024 bullish pattern to 150,000Bitcoin turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.434, MACD = 1198.600, ADX = 26.499) as it found support on the 1D MA50 and is rebounding. The emerging pattern is a Channel Up and coming off an Arc consolidation in December, it draws strong comparisons with the price action after August 2024. The 1D MACD shows that once BTC rebounded on the 1D MA50 (October 10th 2024), the indicator formed a Bullish Cross, which is exactly what is happening now. This paved the way for the parabolic rally that peaked near the 3.5 Fibonacci extension. That shows that this is the time to engage in a confirmed long position again and target at least the 3.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 150,000).
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Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)
BITCOIN // primary expansionKey Chart (H4)
The weekly is mixed, but the daily is bullish, and there was only one H4 breakdown that kept the market off from the primary long trend’s expansion phase.
Targets are the H4, daily and weekly fibo levels on the chart.
Short only below the red level.
Key Fundamentals
Summary
Bitcoin has recently experienced a notable price increase, trading at approximately $105,376, reflecting a 2.7% gain. This surge is influenced by the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates and growing optimism within the cryptocurrency market. Additionally, significant corporate investments and evolving regulatory perspectives are shaping Bitcoin’s market dynamics.
Key Factors
Federal Reserve’s Interest Rate Decision:
The Federal Reserve’s choice to keep interest rates steady at 4.25% to 4.5% has contributed to Bitcoin’s recent price appreciation. Investors appear optimistic despite the central bank’s acknowledgment of persistent inflation. 
Corporate Adoption and Investment:
Companies like MicroStrategy have significantly increased their Bitcoin holdings, viewing it as a strategic asset. Analysts have noted that MicroStrategy’s valuation is now closely tied to its Bitcoin investments, reflecting broader corporate adoption trends. 
Regulatory Developments:
Discussions are underway regarding governmental involvement in cryptocurrency holdings. For instance, the UK’s Crown Prosecution Service is seeking legal ownership of seized Bitcoin, which could influence future regulatory frameworks. 
Market Sentiment and Speculation:
Speculation surrounding political developments, such as potential policy changes under different administrations, has also impacted Bitcoin’s price movements. The market is responding to anticipated shifts in regulatory approaches and their potential effects on cryptocurrency adoption. 
Actionable Insights
Bullish Case:
Institutional Adoption: Continued corporate investments and endorsements could drive further price appreciation.
Regulatory Clarity: Clear and supportive regulatory frameworks may enhance investor confidence and market stability.
Bearish Case:
Regulatory Crackdowns: Potential restrictive regulations could hinder market growth and reduce investor participation.
Market Volatility: High volatility and speculative trading may lead to sharp corrections, posing risks to investors.
———
Orange lines represent impulse bases on major timeframes, signaling the direction and validity of the prevailing trend by acting as key levels where significant momentum originated.
Level colors:
Daily - blue
Weekly - purple
Monthly - magenta
H4 - aqua
Long trigger - green
Short trigger - red
Clean (not yet tested) breakdown - dashed green
Clean (not yet tested) breakout - dashed red
———
Stay grounded, stay present. 🏄🏼♂️
<<please boost 🚀 if you enjoy💚
Bitcoin could rise againBitcoin Price Analysis: Navigating the Market's Fluctuations
As of today, Bitcoin's price has shown a mix of volatility and resilience. Over the past few weeks, it has been trading within a range, testing both support and resistance levels that reflect market sentiment and external factors such as global economic conditions and investor behavior.
At the moment, Bitcoin is hovering around , maintaining its position as the leading cryptocurrency in market capitalization. While the overall trend seems to be consolidating, Bitcoin has displayed remarkable resilience in the face of potential market corrections. The digital asset continues to attract attention, both from institutional investors and retail traders, who see Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and a store of value in times of economic uncertainty.
Key support levels are being watched closely by traders, with many viewing the $ mark as a crucial point for potential rebound or further declines. Conversely, the next resistance level sits around $ , which could determine if the current consolidation phase is followed by an upward breakout or a shift in market dynamics.
Technically, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near neutral territory, indicating a balance between buying and selling pressure. The Moving Averages suggest that Bitcoin is at a critical juncture, with short-term fluctuations creating uncertainty. However, its long-term trajectory remains positive, with fundamental factors like growing adoption and institutional interest continuing to bolster Bitcoin’s value proposition.
While the market is still in a state of flux, Bitcoin has proven time and again its ability to recover from downward movements and rise to new highs. The current price levels offer both opportunities and risks, and for anyone looking to invest, a cautious yet optimistic approach is recommended.
In summary, Bitcoin’s current price presents an interesting crossroads for the market. With bullish long-term prospects and short-term uncertainties, it's a dynamic environment for traders and investors alike.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P BINANCE:BTCUSD
BTC DOMINANCE AND ALT SEASONIf we completed 5 waves up, structure ABC should be next. When price take liq above last high (A wave) we can see start of the drop and alt season. If not, btc price will go more to the upside and btc.d will rise again.
Everybody is expecting alt season so market makers can do opposite... lets see.
This is not a financial advice.
Postpone shorts for awhileMorning folks,
So, the pullback that we've discussed last time is done and even slightly more extended, in a way of AB=CD .
By our previous plan, somewhere around we should start thinking about the short entry. So, is it time? We think it is not quite yet. And the reason stands with the pattern that now is forming on weekly chart - bullish grabber. This pattern suggests the challenge of the top again in any way.
Does it mean that the bearish scenario, especially our DRPO "Sell" pattern has totally failed. Not quite. The test of the top might be fast, just in a way of spike. In this case bearish setup will stand. But this will be later. For now - we consider no shorts, at least on daily/weekly charts.
On intraday charts, since we have "222" Sell, right, scalp traders could consider shorts for a few hours with very close target - around 103K. But this is not our primary scenario so far.
So, to be absolutely sure with this, let's wait for weekly close price to understand do we really get the grabber on weekly TF or not...
✅BTC's situation+next targets and expected movements.Hello.
As you can see, Bitcoin failed to break the Ascending triangle in its last attempt, and now it is making a fourth downward wave based on Elliott , and than we have to wait for Bitcoin's rise.
👀To motivate me ,Like ❤️ & Share 🌐 this post with your friends ! Thanks for your support ♥️
⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
**Gold (XAUUSD) 1H Analysis: Bearish Rejection at Resistance, OANDA:XAUUSD **Gold (XAUUSD) 1H Chart Analysis**
- **Resistance Zone:** The price is currently testing a resistance area marked in gray, aligning with a descending trendline.
- **Potential Rejection:** The chart suggests a possible rejection from this zone, leading to a bearish move.
- **Target:** If rejection holds, the price is expected to drop toward the **2,745** level.
- **Pattern Formation:** The price is forming a lower high structure, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend.
- **Confirmation:** A strong rejection candle or break of minor support could confirm the downside move.
### **Conclusion:**
Watch for confirmation around the resistance zone. A rejection could trigger a short trade targeting **2,745**, while a breakout above could invalidate the bearish setup.
Bitcoin Looks Shortable, But I’m Staying Out—Here’s WhyBitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) is presenting a textbook short setup. The composition on the 4-hour timeframe looks nearly perfect for a short trade, and for the day, one could craft a compelling shortable strategy. However, despite my analysis, I am making the rare decision not to enter this trade.
The short setup: a perfect storm?
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is flashing bearish signals. Momentum indicators are showing weakness, volume profiles suggest exhaustion, and key resistance levels seem to be holding. In a vacuum, this setup looks ideal for a profitable short position.
But trading isn’t just about technical analysis—it’s about understanding the broader market psychology and risk dynamics.
The risk of shorting bitcoin right now
The reason I’m sitting this one out is simple: betting against Bitcoin is like betting against the entire world.
1. The Supply Squeeze Effect – The long-term macro trend for BTC is that supply is constantly decreasing. With halvings reducing new issuance and institutions accumulating, the fundamental picture favors long-term scarcity.
2. Everyone Wants a Dip to Buy – Shorting BTC means betting that people won’t step in to buy the dip. However, history has shown time and time again that Bitcoin has a dedicated base of believers who aggressively accumulate whenever there’s weakness.
3. “No Bitcoin Left” Narrative – The idea that eventually there will be no more BTC available for easy purchase is gaining traction. In such an environment, shorting is not just risky—it’s dangerous.
Sometimes, the best trade is no trade
It’s frustrating to see a clear short setup and yet hold back from executing. But trading is not just about being right—it’s about managing risk. And in this case, the risk of being on the wrong side of Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory outweighs the short-term setup.
There’s an old saying: “The best trades are sometimes the ones you never make.” Today, this is one of those moments.
For now, I’ll watch from the sidelines. But if Bitcoin proves me wrong and drops anyway, I won’t have any regrets—I’ll just be reminded that in trading, discipline is more valuable than being right.
BTC / USDT : Confirmed breakout, Bullish momentum building upBTC/USDT: Confirmed Breakout, Bullish Momentum Building Up 🚀
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) has officially broken above key resistance and is now in bullish price discovery mode 📈. With this confirmed breakout, BTC is poised for further upside, and the market sentiment is shifting in favor of the bulls. If momentum sustains, we could see a strong continuation towards higher price targets.
Key Insights:
1️⃣ Breakout Confirmed: BTC has successfully closed above the key resistance zone, turning it into new support. This signals a strong bullish trend continuation.
2️⃣ Volume Surge: The breakout was accompanied by a significant increase in buying volume, confirming the presence of strong demand 🔥.
3️⃣ Technical Indicators: RSI is holding above 60, and MACD is showing bullish crossover, reinforcing the uptrend ⚡.
What’s Next?
Retest Confirmation: A successful retest of the breakout level as support would further validate the bullish breakout 📊.
Upside Targets: If BTC holds this momentum, key resistance zones to watch are [ NYSE:X ] and [ TSX:Y ] 🎯.
Fakeout Risk: If BTC dips back below the breakout level, it could signal a false breakout, so caution is advised ⚠️.
Risk Management Tips:
✅ Set stop-loss levels below the breakout zone to protect capital.
✅ Adjust position sizing based on market volatility.
✅ Keep an eye on macro trends that could influence BTC’s movement.
BTC’s breakout is a significant signal for the market. Stay alert for confirmation signals and trade accordingly!
📢 This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always DYOR before making investment decisions.
BTCUSDT | 4H | BE CAREFUL Dear friends,
For Bitcoin, the 97, 98, 102 thousand dollar levels are very important areas. I suggest you to be careful at these levels. I think these points can be dangerous; therefore, we need to observe these levels. ⚠️
Please be careful in advance, dear followers 📣
please don't forget to press the like button for more such analysis 🚀
Best Regards 🫡
Bitcoin 200 Week SMA As Market Top IndicatorI just re-created this study which I heard about today, showing that the new market top for Bitcoin is typically where the 200 Week SMA crosses above the prior market cycle high.
We'll also be watching the Pi Cycle Top signal, along with our 'Bear Market' confirmation signals which we developed last cycle (link in bio), which seem to signal programmatic selling...
But this study is a simple way to prepare for and help determine when it's time to get out.
The more signals pointing toward similar levels, the better.
Personally I believe we could push up close to $150k in Febuary / March, followed by a 30% - 50% correction into the summer... Then a rip roaring rally to $200k by October / November 2025.
Then it's Bear Market City.
What do you think?
Where Ethereum Stands and The Best Time to BuyEthereum has essentially ranged the last year with large swings up and down. Major support rests at $2770 and upper resistance at $4700 with a current target of at least $13.6k.
While Ethereum has been ranging it's been falling against Bitcoin and like every bull cycle since 2017, Ethereum will be the last to catch up. But that time to buy is now and we can see major volumes have been hitting the Ethereum maket as eth/btc is in the buy zone below 0.031 with a target of 0.09. If bitcoin holds it's current support and runs to $174k in the coming months that puts Ethreum around $15.6k which is very close to my eth/usd target of $13.6k.
Aave market has 88% of all Ethereum on the platform (1.64M eth or $5.1 Billion) loaned out and sold short. There seem to be online wars of people fighting over why eth isn't on par with bitcoin. Ethereum futures has ATH open interest yet lending rates are near zero. These are all major signs of the end of the eth/btc bear market. We should see eth outperform btc this year. There's not much eth left to be sold short. I've never seen such reckless shorting of a crypto currency, but it's all fuel of the run up.
2025-01-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bullish day but still below 105k. Above 105k bulls have no more bigger resistance until 109k but for now the triangle is still valid. It’s not a strong trend or the bars would not overlap so much. Was the move up after the FOMC release from 101600 to 104000 the start of a bigger leg up? Could be. Invalidation for bears is a print above the beginning of the bear leg at 105k. As long as we stay below, bears are ok and we continue sideways inside the triangle.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 98k - 109k
bull case: Bulls broke higher after 4 consecutive bearish days but we are still inside the triangle. They closed every bar above the daily 20ema since 14th and that means they are still somewhat favored to move higher. The buying after FOMC was strong enough to expect a second leg up. I do think they need to hold above 103k for that.
Invalidation is below 103k.
bear case: Bears only target is to defend the strong leg down which started at 105k to keep the market at lower highs. Above 105k most have to give up and try to short again higher. Market has not made lower lows since Monday, so bears do not have much going for them here. Best they can hope for is to stay inside the triangle and go sideways.
Invalidation is above 105k.
short term: Neutral 101k - 104k, bullish above 105k and bearish only below 100k.
medium-long term: 75000 is my biggest target for now and until bears get there, any lower target is just unreasonable. My bias is bearish going into 2025 and I think the odds of a bigger leg down are good.
current swing trade: None.
trade of the day: Buying the FOMC low around 101600 or earlier since market printed 3 consecutive bull bars already. Stop had to be 100k anyway.
Bitcoin - Remains in Rising ChannelBitcoin is respecting the rising channel which is becoming more of wedge. Unless it sustains a break, we may see a pullback to support or even lower levels. Weekly close will be crucial.
For entries, please wait for at least two candle reversals at the specified level and apply appropriate risk management.
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Disclaimer: This content is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Bitcoin's Rollercoaster Surging Past $101K or Plummeting to $70KIf Bitcoin breaks $101,700, it could aim for $117,000. If it falls below $100,000, it might correct down to $70,000-$80,000.
If this analysis helped you and your trading please like, share and boost that would be much appreciated
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade Smarter Live Better
EHTUSDT DAILY :ROADMAPHello friendsو
As you can see in the chart, we can see another decline in Ethereum. The $2800 range could be very important for Ethereum and, consequently, other altcoins.
Hello friends
As you can see in the chart, we can see another decline in Ethereum. The $2800 range could be very important for Ethereum and, consequently, other altcoins.
SecondChanceCrypto
⏰ 29/Jan/25
⛔️DYOR
Always do your research.
If you have any questions, you can write them in the comments below and I will answer them.
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What I think trading is...
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If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
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Have a nice day today.
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Thank you @TradingBrokersView for the great article.
🚨 Bitcoin update! 🚨 BTC rejected at MA50 (4h) inside a Channel Down pattern. If history repeats, we could see a Lower Low at 95K (-10.7%), aligning with MA100 (1d) support. RSI (4h) is confirming bearish momentum.
🔥 Trading Plan: Sell now before further downside!
I was thinking about how to say it, and I came up with this idea.
Thank you again.
------------------------------------
#BTCUSDT 1M
As shown in the chart, it has risen a lot, so it is natural to feel downward pressure.
No one knows how big this downward pressure will be.
However, what I can tell you is the flow of funds.
To see a more detailed flow, you need to look at the gap occurrence status on the 1D chart, but when looking at the overall flow of funds, it is true that a lot of funds are flowing into the coin market.
Selling all of this inflow of funds means that you will not be able to overcome the volatility in the upcoming bull market and will rather increase the probability of suffering losses.
The reason is that the average purchase price is likely to be set too high and is likely to be located in the volatility range.
Therefore, you need to respond according to your investment style.
In other words, if your investment style is one that wants to trade quickly and urgently, a strategy that sells whenever it shows signs of falling would be appropriate to gain profits.
If not, if you have a longer-term outlook or trade mainly in spot transactions, I think it would be better to leave coins (tokens) corresponding to profits rather than selling all of them so that you can more easily purchase them in the future bull market.
Leaving a coin (token) corresponding to the profit means a coin (token) with a purchase principal of 0.
In other words, it means that when the price rises after purchase, the purchase principal is sold.
In that sense, when looking at the BTCUSDT 1M chart, you can see that the Fibonacci ratio point of 1.618 (89050.0) is a very important support and resistance area.
#BTCUSDT 1D
This volatility period is expected to continue until January 31.
Therefore, it is expected that the key will be whether there is support near 101947.24 after this volatility period.
If it falls without support near 101947.24, it is expected that the trend will be determined again by touching the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart.
If you have been reading my ideas, you will understand that you should not try to create a trading strategy by analyzing charts.
As I mentioned earlier, you should create a trading strategy that suits your investment style with the information obtained from chart analysis.
That is why the opinion that it will fall now and sell everything can be interpreted differently by different people, so you need to be careful.
Some people are currently making profits and others are losing money.
Those who are making profits will have the luxury of waiting even if the price falls, and those who are losing money may be suffering from psychological pressure.
The information I am giving you is to provide information on how to respond to all of these people.
In that sense, you need to focus on the price that I am talking about, that is, the support and resistance points or sections.
If your average purchase price is below the support and resistance points or sections that I am talking about, you can check the downward trend and intensity and judge the situation.
If not, you need to create a response strategy based on how much cash you currently have.
If your current cash holding is less than 20% of your total investment and you feel unstable psychologically, it is a good idea to sell some of it to secure cash.
This will allow you to secure the ability to purchase more even if the price falls, so you will be able to secure a certain level of psychological stability even if the price falls.
I think trading is about responding to your investment style and psychological state in this way.
Therefore, you should calmly look at your current psychological state, check your cash holdings, and create a response strategy that suits your investment style.
This is the strategy I can tell you.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) Symmetrical Triangle Analysis: Next move?Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) 4H Chart Analysis
Key Observations:
1. Symmetrical Triangle Pattern:
The chart shows a symmetrical triangle formation, characterized by converging trendlines.
This pattern typically signals a breakout, but the direction (up or down) depends on market momentum.
2. Current Price Action:
BTC is trading around $102,979.98 at the time of the chart.
It is above the 200 EMA ($100,003.64), indicating bullish strength.
The price recently bounced off support and is moving towards resistance.
3. Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: Around $97,785.55 (blue line).
Resistance: Around $109,636.60 (blue line).
4. Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Breakout:
If BTC breaks above the upper trendline, it may rally towards $109,636.60 or higher.
A confirmed breakout could push BTC to $112,500+.
Bearish Breakdown:
If BTC rejects at resistance and breaks downward, it could retest the $100,000 level or lower.
A breakdown could target $97,785.55 or even $95,000.
Final Thoughts:
Watch for a breakout or breakdown from the triangle pattern.
Volume is crucial—a high-volume breakout confirms strength, while low volume can indicate a fakeout.
If BTC stays above $100,000 (200 EMA support), the bullish bias remains intact.
$130K HERE WE COME! #BTCRight now I'm seeing so much fear across social media regarding BTC price that I cannot help but post that we are basically in wave 2 correction of a larger wave 5, and the wave 2 has probably ended or is about to end at any moment, so just sit back and relax and keep HODLing on cuz the wave 3 target is $130K minimum!
BULLISH ON $LINK as potential front runner for Alt of 2025?I know that’s a BIG STATEMENT but I do see merit here. ChainLink is a very powerful network with its capability’s.
Anyway the idea is simple the first circle's purple green yellow all smaller to larger are same as the right side but the last yellow circle you see only 1/6th so if the rim. All this is hard to make out when zoomed in on a long frame chart so it was easiest way and I added pitch fork to give the over-all tend-line with the fork set to the last trend change. For a more realistic outlook which is still FUCKING INSANE! “”IF IT CAME OR COMES TRUE!”” I will see when I look at this accounts ideas ain 1-10 years and to holy shit I actually owned that..!?? Haha
Alright THIS IS WHY I AM SO BULLISH ON BITCOIN I MEAN LINK! lol CRYPTOCAP:BTC WILL PULL CRYPTOCAP:LINK ID OWN BOTH JUST A IMO.
ALSO MOT FINACIAL ADVICE I AM NOT FINANCIAL ADVISOR OR STUDY FINANCE SO I ONLY TRADE WHAT I KNOW WHORKS AND SHARE WITH SOME PEOPLE BUT THIS WONT BE THE SAME ON ANOTHER TRADE AS IT ALWAYS CHANGES SO TRADE YOUR OWN STRATEGIES!
Below is the reason I own and will continue to HODL CRYPTOCAP:LINK #ChainLink
Chainlink ( CRYPTOCAP:LINK ) has as a decentralised oracle network that connects smart contracts with real-world data, APIs, and traditional banking systems. It’s absolutely next level and NEW businesses or entrepreneurs will want to build on or use the chain link blockchain to do business maybe just pay people or for BONUS salary or even a “second option” to “Superannuation” or CRYPTOCAP:BTC will do so for first time under Trump administration or a the least I have heard this from a random but human source.
Anyway so since blockchains cannot access external data on its own, Chainlink acts as a bridge, enabling smart contracts to execute based on real-world events, such as price feeds, weather data, or even sports scores.
For users being solo or business, Chainlink enhances most (if not all) blockchain applications by providing reliable and tamper-proof data, ensuring decentralised finance (DeFi) platforms, NFT projects, and other Smart Contract-Based services function accurately and securely. This reduces reliance with any centralised data providers, increasing transparency and trust amongst the entire user base and anyone who chooses to look on the chainlink block explorer.
For big company’s Chainlink offers a secure way to integrate blockchain technology without overhauling existing digital infrastructure. Businesses can leverage its oracles to automate processes, improve efficiency, and access new blockchain-based financial products. It enables smart contracts to be used in insurance, gaming, supply chain management, and more.
The benefits of Chainlink include its decentralized nature, security, and widespread adoption across major blockchain projects. However, drawbacks include potential scalability concerns, reliance on node operators for data accuracy, and competition from other oracle solutions. Despite these challenges, Chainlink remains the dominant oracle provider in the crypto space, powering many DeFi applications.
Now that there wasn’t me that’s a disc rip took of Link. This is why I BELIEVE it’s a contender FOR 2025 Altcoin of the year or at minimum top 5…! Heck it is just following CRYPTOCAP:BTC little bit of CRYPTOCAP:ETH moves it. Depends.. I just think the MARKET NOW is about to go KAPUT AND BE TRIAL FOR THSOE WHO ARE HOLDERS AND WHO ARENT. This is one of my final warnings.
It will happen the market is way over priced. It may SEEM not but it is and mathematically as well. So we need to be careful with “MEMES” always another threat which is so stupid people still fall for the Twitter or telegram or Instagram image of some random LOGO animal and name with a $ ticker so it seem “Legit” cut so many new people don’t know it’s easy to make a meme coin and has been for years now. It’s that no one knew or no one wanted to know and didn’t learn it and it wasn’t idealised by the ”masses” to look at. I mean even the church or the royal family’s ITS NEW for them and this is the whole thing with cryptocurrency even JUST CRYPTOCAP:BTC AND that’s why we say “JUST Bitcoin” because anything else HAS YET TO BE ADVERTISED largely on a world wide scale like bitcoin on the Bitcoin network. Notice the lower b and upper B single word bitcoin is reference to the coin I or you own. Or can mine then the Bitcoin network or even Bitcoin references the Bitcoin network.
Just for any future reference if it’s a book or something you will get it ;)
Bitcoin Long-term Holder CyclesViewing market cycles through the lens of long-term holder behavior can provide valuable insights. This chart tracks the collective balance of long-term holders, highlighting periods of accumulation (green) and distribution (red) across different market phases.
Distribution phases align with bull markets, and we are currently in one. The duration of these phases can offer clues about what to expect in the current cycle—assuming market dynamics remain consistent.
The first accumulation phase lasted approximately 1,000 days , followed by the second at ~820 days , and the third at nearly 800 days .
The first distribution phase lasted ~530 days , the second 420 days , and the current one has reached 385 days so far.
At first glance, this may suggest a contracting cycle. However, with only three data points, it's premature to establish a definitive trend. A more prudent assumption is that the current distribution phase will follow a similar duration to previous ones—likely spanning 400 to 550 days.
For illustration, if this distribution phase were to last 500 days, it would place its end around mid-May. However, this still leaves the most critical question unanswered: how does this relate to price?
Historically, distribution cycles tend to end after market cycle peaks. As prices decline, long-term holders gradually slow their selling and begin accumulating again. This suggests that a market cycle peak before May should be considered a logical scenario within the current cycle.