Critical Bitcoin Support Levels: A Key Test for the FutureI was reviewing some of my old charts and came across this one because the patterns here are really interesting. Back on November 15th, I posted a head and shoulders pattern, but as you can see, it didn’t play out as expected. Every time Bitcoin made a new high, it got rejected and pulled back to the support level. This has happened multiple times Bitcoin goes up, makes a new high, and then retraces all the way back down to the same support level.
What’s different this time is that Bitcoin tried to push for new highs but failed, instead forming a lower high. Now, it’s testing a critical support level, marked by the two white trend lines on the chart. Bitcoin is currently at the support level, but the real test will come when it reaches that point of support. That’s the key support area that Bitcoin must hold.
Bitcoin really needs to maintain this support. If it breaks through, we could see a significant drop, potentially all the way down to $77,085.65. I don’t want to sound overly negative, but I’m just giving you a heads-up on what could unfold in 2025. All eyes will be on the $91,541.87 level this is the crucial support level. If Bitcoin can’t hold that area, it could trigger a further decline. Keep a close watch, as this could be a pivotal point for the next major move.
Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)
BTC USD IdeaWe are closely looking level 90,682.58 on the BTC/USD pair. It appears the market is entering a bearish pullback towards the end of the year. On the order book, we see large funds selling positions to secure year-end profits. We consider this market condition a pullback phase if we break through the 90,682.58 fractal low. This is normal and occurs every December in the markets. Overall, we only scalp trade during December and January, without expecting any significant moves. We will keep you posted if volume returns to the markets.
After the volatility period around December 27th...
(Title) What will it look like after the volatility period around December 27th
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USDT is currently showing a gap down, although small.
USDC is showing a gap up steadily.
The gap up of USDT and USDC means that funds are flowing into the coin market.
I think the start of the altcoin bull market should be below 55.01 and maintained or show a downward trend.
The decline in USDT dominance is likely to result in a rise in the coin market.
If it rises above 4.97, the coin market is likely to experience a sharp decline and the coin market is likely to show a downward trend.
If USDC continues to fall, it is likely to fall to around 2.84.
After that, it is expected that the coin market will gradually show a downward trend while rising.
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
The HA-High indicator on the 1W chart is showing signs of being created at the 94742.35 point.
Therefore, if the HA-High indicator of the 1W chart is generated, it is important to see if it can be supported near that area.
If it falls without being supported, there is a possibility that it will meet the M-Signal indicator of the 1W chart.
Before meeting the M-Signal indicator of the 1W chart, it is necessary to check if it is supported near 87.8K-89K.
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The Momentum indicator is showing a continuous downward trend.
We need to see if it shows an upward trend when a new candle is created.
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Looking at the overall picture of BTC, it is still in the sideways section.
Therefore, the point of interest is whether it can rise above 97821.58-98892.0 by rising near 92K-93.5K.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful transaction.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend.
Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025.
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(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the upward trend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, I expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
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No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to it.
Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci.
Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
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Total Market CapTotal Market Cap started a parabolic run from the beginning of 2021 after the breakout and retest in December 2020, which was the 2017 ATH level ($761B).
The breakout at the 2021 ATH level ($3.01T) in December 2024 has been co!mpleted and is being retested!
I think the countdown to the parabolic run has begun for CRYPTOCAP:BTC CRYPTOCAP:ETH and #Altcoins
Bitcoin still showing weakness despite 4h oversold conditionsBTC is struggling to find support, giving the market some really good opportunities to accumulate. Although the 4h oscillators look bottomed out, the daily keeps me critical of the current market conditions. The daily timeframe seems as if it wants to get its full reset, this would result in more downside across the crypto market. Are you ready?|
BTC enters the parabolic stage of the bullmarketPredicting the tops and bottoms of Bitcoin - in a macro sense - is not that easy. But some indicators can give us a clue or kind of sense of caution warning when to exit or enter the market.
One of them is the "MVRV Z" indicator. It is a chart indicator that uses blockchain analysis to identify periods where BTC is extremely over or undervalued relative to its "fair value".
Historically it has been very effective in identifying periods where market value is moving unusually high above realised value. It also shows when market value is far below realised value, highlighted by the green lines. Buying Bitcoin during these periods has historically produced outsized returns.
This chart indicator is generally useful for predicting Bitcoin price at the extremes of market conditions. It is able to forecast where price may need to pull back when the score enters the upper red hot periods and also when price may rally after spending time in the lower green band.
Historically it has picked major Bitcoin price highs to within 2 weeks.
So far BTC has done a great job holding in the middle value band. It's in the stage of taking the next leap breaking out of it to the upside completing the bullmarket, also referring to past historical breakouts which happenend in similar fashion after a long lasting bearmarket.
BTC : All Time High IN - OR Multimonth Playout?Bitcoin has begun a steep drop, and it's likely that the ATH is priced in. This fits my previous idea that the ATH would either be just over or just under 100k.
There is, ofcourse, another option as well - a continuation over the next few months. This is likely if the price of BTC follows a fractal of the previous cycle. It would become likely if we see a strong bounce around the 81-82K zone, pushing us up into the 90's.
But, at the moment, I'm leaning towards the idea that the ATH is in.
It would also makes sense for the ATH to be in, from an Elliot Wave Theory perspective, since we've made a perfect 5 waves. If this is indeed the case, we can look forward to a few more rallies in the altmarket.
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BINANCE:BTCUSDT
BTC on 6h chart Hello, my dear friends!🫶 I’m so happy to see You here again! I’m especially grateful for Your feedback—some of You mentioned, that were waiting for me and missed me.🥲 Your words truly touched my heart—thank You so much!😊 I’m thrilled to be drawing charts for You once again; every post I share here holds a piece of my soul. Thanks for Your support—it means the world to me!💋
🔴 We’re currently sitting between a major resistance level (a trendline dating all the way back to 2017) and strong support at 72,000.🔴
The price is at a fascinating crossroads: if the 96–94–93 levels hold and the price consolidates there, we could see a climb toward the significant resistance zone (marked by the pink 🟣 dot) at 107–108k. From there, it’ll be crucial to watch closely—if the price breaks through those levels with ease, a rally could be in the cards.🚀
However, if the 96–94–93–92 levels fail to hold, we’re likely in for a deeper correction. In that case, we could see the price drop to the support zones at 86k, or possibly even lower, to 77k–73k.📉
Thank You for being part of this amazing community—it’s a privilege to share ideas and grow alongside You all. No matter what the charts look like, stay focused, stay patient, and keep believing in your abilities. Success belongs to those who persevere.
Always sincerely yours, Kateryna 💙💛
ADA - Gearing Up for a Breakout?After an impressive rebound from the trend-based Fibonacci extension 1:1 at $0.7655, ADA has been consolidating between $0.92 and $0.85 for the past two days. As the new week begins, today's wOpen at $0.8834 is a critical support level, perfectly aligning with the key level at $0.8806. Holding above these levels reinforces a bullish outlook.
Key Insights and Trade Setups:
Support Zones to Watch:
$0.8834 (wOpen) and $0.8806 (Key Level).
Maintaining above these levels keeps the bullish structure intact.
Long Setup Options:
A great long opportunity was from today’s wOpen ($0.8834).
Alternatively, wait for a retracement to the golden pocket at $0.8877 of this current wave.
R:R: 2.5, a solid potential reward for the risk taken.
Target for Long Trades:
Aim for the Fibonacci 0.618 level at $0.9448, which aligns with the daily resistance level.
This zone also represents a high-liquidity area where short sellers may be forced to exit positions.
Pattern Confirmation:
The potential formation of an Adam and Eve pattern strengthens the bullish case. Confirmation comes above $0.9155, suggesting further upside.
HelenP. I Bitcoin will little correct and then start to move upHi folks today I'm prepared for you Bitcoin analytics. Some time ago price declined to the trend line and then started to grow, so, quickly later rose to the support level. this level was concerned with the support zone and soon BTC broke this level, after which made a retest and started to trades near this level. Later, the price rose to the resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone, after which made a correction to the support level and then in a short time backed up to the resistance level. Then the price continued to grow and soon reached the 103000 level and even broke it and then continued to move up. Bitcoin reached a new ATH and then turned around and made a correction movement, breaking the 103000 level one more time. Price fell to the trend line and then tried to grow, but failed and now continues to trades close to this line. In my opinion, BTCUSDT will decline below the trend line and then start to grow to the resistance zone. So, for this case, I set my goal at 105K points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
BITCOIN In Coming Days!As I mentioned in previous analyses, Bitcoin finally broke the wedge and the price turned bearish. However, now if the price can break the 0.618 Fibonacci line, it can rise up to 107k dollars.
previous analyses
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⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
BITCOIN Are you scared enough? Or need to see more pain?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) touched its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in more than 2 months (since October 11) and is rebounding. The first presence of short-term buyers was actually felt on Friday, when the price came close to the MA50 again and rebounded aggressively. This is a natural technical reaction during such aggressive uptrends.
The key Support level during BTC Bull Cycles however is the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), which has been supporting since March 2023 and was successfully tested (and held) twice on August 05 and September 06, the last of which was technically the start of the current Bullish Leg.
** The Fibonacci Channel Up **
Bullish Legs are technically part of Channels and this time is no different as Bitcoin has been trading on a Fibonacci Channel Up since the very bottom of the last Bear Cycle in November 21 2021.
As you can see, we have classified the price action on this pattern in Phases, each of whom trades within one range upwards, which is why the Fibonacci Channel succeeds at accurately displaying BTC's current logarithmic rise during this Cycle.
** The Phases and the high symmetry **
Phase 1 (blue Channel) traded within the Fib 0.0 - 1.0 range, Phase 2 (green Channel) within the Fib 0.5 - 1.5 range and we expect a 3rd one, Phase 3 (red Channel) to trade within the Fib 1.0 - 2.0 range.
As you may assume, there is high symmetry between sequences, Legs and pull-backs within this pattern and the one that stands out is that rallies so far tend to record +100% rises. More specifically, both the April 14 2023 and January 11 2024 Highs of +100% rallies, then pulled back towards the 0.382 Fib retracement level, the first didn't hit it, the second almost did.
** Will we test the 1D MA100? **
But that is the rally that displays the most similarities with the current one and after hitting its 1D MA50, it broke even lower and only found Support and bounced on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). You can see even how identical their 1D RSI sequences are, which are Channel Down patterns that started showing a bearish divergence much earlier than the top.
Right now the RSI is holding the 45.00 neutral level, but the January 2024 and the 2023 fractals turned into a buy on the key 36.00 level, which is bearish territory. Even though Bull Cycles tend to get more and more aggressive as we approach the end of the Cycle and ignore previous Support levels, the 1D MA100 is currently at $79250 and rising, indicating that it can 'meet' the price on lower levels than currently, assuming how quickly the RSI also hits 36.00 (any of the two conditions hits first, the cyclical buy signal can be valid).
** The remainder of the Bull Cycle **
Beyond that, we expect the next High, as we've already entered Phase 3, to be on the -0.5 horizontal Fibonacci extension (as March 13 2024 was) and on the 2.0 Channel Fibonacci ext at a price of $150000, which is the next technical extension of the Channel. After that, you can see that both Phase 1 and 2 started multi-month Accumulation phases with a potential maximum correction to the 0.382 Fib again and as Phase 3 concludes (and possibly the whole Bull Cycle), we may see another +100% rally and a possible Top at $200000.
So for the current situation the key question is as mentioned on the title: 'Are you scared enough?' now the 1D MA50 has been tested? Because we may very well drop as low as the 1D MA100 before the Fear & Greed Index turns market sentiment to 'Fear' again and makes the majority misjudge the market activity as they always have.
What do you think will happen next? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Will Go Up! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for BITCOIN.
Time Frame: 17h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 95,774.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 103,155 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
BTC ( Bitcoin ) will first need a correctionBitcoin will first need a correction and then continue its upward trajectory.
Given the current situation, it should correct to the highlighted area to evacuate sellers and bring in new buyers.
This support area is quite strong and has the intersection of two strong technical supports.
After that, it will either grow rapidly or, after a little bit of suffering and attracting liquidity from new buyers, it will start to grow incrementally.
If you have followed my ideas, you will see that they always point to the desired point and have a correct prediction trend.
BITCOIN Bearish Breakout! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
BITCOIN has formed a
Bearish flag pattern and
Then made a breakout and
A retest and now we are
Seeing a move down again
So we are locally bearish
Biased and we will be
Expecting a further move down
Sell!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Bullish tendency is broken 101-102K for sellingMorning folks,
So, BTC was not able to stay above predefined support area and drop right back to the daily 92-95K level. It means that existing bullish context on daily chart is done. In general, this is reasonable - we're going to the Xmas Holidays and inauguration. There are a lot of uncertainty with coming D. Trump policy. Especially when JPowell said that the Fed doesn't intend to own any BTC... so inner conflict is ready.
So, retracement might be deeper in nearest month. Since BTC is overextended down a bit, the first thing we expect upside technical bounce, somewhere to 101-102K area. Then, if we're correct in our analysis, downside reversal should happen with potential H&S pattern.
Bitcoin - Bitcoin went below $100,000!Bitcoin is below the EMA50 and EMA200 in the four-hour time frame and is trading in its ascending channel. Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk OFF sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to decline. Bitcoin sell positions can be looked for in supply zones.
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important.
Following hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Bitcoin (BTC) plummeted from its peak of $108,135 on December 17 to below $95,000. Powell’s comments, which signaled the Fed’s ongoing battle against inflation, triggered a sharp selloff in the cryptocurrency market. He indicated that only two interest rate cuts might occur in 2025, as opposed to the four cuts previously anticipated.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve revised its 2025 inflation forecast from 2.1% to 2.5%. Even the 2026 forecast stands at 2.1%, exceeding the central bank’s 2% target. This suggests that inflation could persist for another two years, compelling the Fed to keep interest rates elevated for longer than initially projected.
Bitcoin ETFs, after experiencing 15 consecutive days of capital inflows, saw an unprecedented $680 million outflow on Thursday. This trend continued into Friday, with an additional $270 million withdrawn. Cryptocurrency investors, reacting to the Fed’s decision to slow monetary easing next year, moved substantial capital out of the market.
In the United States, Bitcoin ETFs have surpassed gold ETFs in assets under management (AUM). Despite gold ETFs’ 20-year history, Bitcoin ETFs now manage $129.3 billion, compared to $128.9 billion for gold ETFs.
MicroStrategy, a company renowned for its massive Bitcoin holdings, successfully entered the Nasdaq index. With 439,000 Bitcoins valued at $42.64 billion, the company controls approximately 2% of the total Bitcoin supply. This milestone highlights MicroStrategy’s strong position in the Bitcoin market and has boosted its stock price (MSTR) to $364.20. The company’s innovative strategy of leveraging Bitcoin as a growth asset showcases a unique approach in the financial world.
Bitcoin’s volatility has steadily decreased in recent years. By October 2024, its monthly volatility had dropped to 11%, lower than that of high-profile tech stocks like Tesla (24%), AMD (16%), and Nvidia (12%).
Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, recently shared his outlook on the cryptocurrency market. He predicted a “horrific collapse” around the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on January 20, 2025.
Hayes wrote, “The market believes Trump and his team can deliver immediate economic and political miracles,” but pointed to a gap between investor expectations and the “absence of quick, viable policy solutions.”
Hayes forecasted that implementing changes to cryptocurrency policies would likely take far longer than the market anticipates. He added, “The market will soon realize that Trump, at best, has only a year to execute any policy changes in or around January 20. This realization will trigger a massive selloff in cryptocurrencies and other Trump-related trades.”
He also predicted that a “steep decline” would occur around Trump’s inauguration day, followed by a “crack-up boom phase” in late 2025. This phase, typically seen after financial crises, is characterized by rapid price increases, high inflation, and financial instability.
DAY 3 - Daily BTC UpdateBitcoin must hold the key support level of $92,300 to maintain its bullish outlook and validate the Dragonfly Doji pattern on the daily timeframe. There is conflicting data, with momentum indicating increasing selling pressure, reflected in the formation of lower highs on the daily chart, but the STOCH RSI has bottomed.
Bitcoin’s hash rate—the computational power used to mine and process transactions—has risen by 5.48% to 830.78 EH/s, showcasing stronger network security and processing power. Despite this, mining difficulty remains unchanged at 108.52 T, suggesting that while miners are contributing more power, the effort required to mine a block has not yet been adjusted.
The Crypto Greed and Fear Index currently stands at 70, indicating market greed. While this sentiment suggests confidence, it could also signal caution as investors may pull back from further price increases after the recent decline. The total cryptocurrency market cap has dropped by approximately 2.9%, with Bitcoin dominance slightly decreasing to 55.1%, reflecting minor shifts in market dynamics.
In trading, long liquidations have surged, with over $38 million in Bitcoin long positions liquidated within four hours. This sharp move signals a potential bearish turn, driven by traders taking profits or reacting to external pressures. Despite this, declining trading volume suggests fewer sellers in the market, which could hint at stabilisation or a potential reversal.
On-chain data provides a more optimistic perspective. Whale accumulation has increased, and exchange liquidity inventory ratios have declined, signalling that large holders are likely accumulating Bitcoin for longer-term gains or anticipating a price recovery. Moreover, exchange reserves are decreasing, reducing the immediate supply of Bitcoin available for sale. This dynamic supports a potential price rebound if current trends persist.
The past 24 hours have been volatile, with Bitcoin leaning bearish in the short term. However, the underlying on-chain metrics—such as whale activity and reduced exchange reserves—suggest that bullish investors still have hope. A buy-the-dip opportunity may arise if Bitcoin forms a higher low in the coming sessions, potentially paving the way for a recovery.
I am still Buying the Dips :)
PS there were a few more images on the in group update - but not allowed under Trading View Rules - Sorry :(
Bitcoin Mid TermFirst Impression:
The BTC/USD pair appears to have dropped below the $95,000 level and is under selling pressure. Strong support levels are evident in lower regions. The price is retracing toward levels that previously acted as support during bullish moves.
Volume Analysis:
No notable increase in volume is observed on the chart. This could indicate that the current downward move is a low-volume correction or that the market is indecisive. However, if volume increases, the likelihood of the downtrend continuing may rise.
Price Action:
The price is trading around $94,000, showing downward movement. Below, key support levels are visible near $90,700, $88,000, and $85,000. These levels have historically been areas where strong buyers stepped in, making them potential zones for price reactions.
Positive Scenario:
If the price holds at $94,000 and starts a recovery move, it could climb back above $95,000. In this case, $97,500 would be the first target. Sustained movement above this level could push the price back toward the psychological resistance at $100,000.
Negative Scenario:
If the price drops below $94,000, a decline toward $90,700 becomes more likely. A break below this support level could lead to further declines to $88,000 and then $85,000. This scenario would indicate continued selling pressure.
High Probability:
Given current market conditions, it is highly probable that the price consolidates between $90,700 and $94,000 for some time. The balance of buyers and sellers in this zone will determine the direction of the next trend.
Overall:
The BTC/USD pair is trading near a critical support zone. The $94,000 level should be closely monitored; a drop below this level could drive the price toward lower supports. For upward recoveries, $95,000 and $97,500 are the first resistance levels to watch. Strategies should be adjusted based on volume and price action.