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Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Weekly Analysis - W3 April | Master The MarketBitcoin continues to dominate the cryptocurrency market, and its price action provides valuable insights for traders. Here's a detailed breakdown of Bitcoin's performance in Week 3 of April: Monthly Chart: Long-Term Uptrend The monthly chart shows that Bitcoin remains in a long-term uptrend. However, last month saw some consolidation, with prices pulling back slightly. This indicates a healthy correction after a prolonged upward movement. Traders should focus on key support and resistance levels to identify potential breakout or reversal zones. Weekly & Daily Charts: Consolidation Below the Cloud On the weekly chart, Bitcoin’s price is currently trading below the Kumo cloud but above critical support levels. The daily chart highlights a defined trading range between $74,000 and $93,000 . A breakout above the cloud could signal renewed bullish momentum, while a retest of the $74,000 support level may indicate further consolidation. Key Levels to Watch Support: $74,000 Resistance: 93,000Tradersshouldmonitortheselevelsclosely.Asustainedmoveabove93,000 could open the door for higher targets, while a break below $74,000 might lead to deeper corrections. Trading Strategy Buy Opportunity: Wait for a pullback to the cloud support or a retest of $74,000 before entering long positions. Risk Management: Place stop-loss orders below key support levels to protect against downside risks. Bitcoin remains highly volatile, so patience and discipline are crucial. Keep an eye on macroeconomic factors like interest rate decisions and geopolitical events, as they can significantly impact BTC/USD price movements.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by tranvanloc
1
Behind the Curtain: Bitcoin’s Surprising Macro Triggers1. Introduction Bitcoin Futures (BTC), once viewed as a niche or speculative product, have now entered the macroeconomic spotlight. Traded on the CME and embraced by institutions through ETF exposure, BTC Futures reflect not only digital asset sentiment—but also evolving reactions to traditional economic forces. While many traders still associate Bitcoin with crypto-native catalysts, machine learning reveals a different story. Today, BTC responds dynamically to macro indicators like Treasury yields, labor data, and liquidity trends. In this article, we apply a Random Forest Regressor to historical data to uncover the top economic signals impacting Bitcoin Futures returns across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes—some of which may surprise even seasoned macro traders. 2. Understanding Bitcoin Futures Contracts Bitcoin Futures provide institutional-grade access to BTC price movements—with efficient clearing and capital flexibility. o Standard BTC Futures (BTC): Tick Size: $5 per tick = $25 per tick per contract Initial Margin: ≈ $102,000 (subject to volatility) o Micro Bitcoin Futures (MBT): Contract Size: 1/50th the BTC size Tick Size: $5 = $0.50 per tick per contract Initial Margin: ≈ $2,000 BTC and MBT trade nearly 24 hours per day, five days a week, offering deep liquidity and expanding participation across hedge funds, asset managers, and active retail traders. 3. Daily Timeframe: Short-Term Macro Sensitivity Bitcoin’s volatility makes it highly reactive to daily data surprises, especially those affecting liquidity and rates. Velocity of Money (M2): This lesser-watched indicator captures how quickly money circulates. Rising velocity can signal renewed risk-taking, often leading to short-term BTC movements. A declining M2 velocity implies tightening conditions, potentially pressuring BTC as risk appetite contracts. 10-Year Treasury Yield: One of the most sensitive intraday indicators for BTC. Yield spikes make holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin potentially less attractive. Declining yields could signal easing financial conditions, inviting capital back into crypto. Labor Force Participation Rate: While not a headline number, sudden shifts in labor force data can affect consumer confidence and policy tone—especially if they suggest a weakening economy. Bitcoin could react positively when data implies future easing. 4. Weekly Timeframe: Labor-Driven Market Reactions As BTC increasingly correlates with traditional markets, weekly economic data—especially related to labor—has become a mid-term directional driver. Initial Jobless Claims: Spikes in this metric can indicate rising economic stress. BTC could react defensively to rising claims, but may rally on drops, especially when seen as signs of stability returning. ISM Manufacturing Employment: This metric reflects hiring strength in the manufacturing sector. Slowing employment growth here could correlate with broader economic softening—something BTC traders can track as part of their risk sentiment gauge. Continuing Jobless Claims: Tracks the persistence of unemployment. Sustained increases can shake risk markets and pull BTC lower, while ongoing declines suggest an improving outlook, which could help BTC resume upward movement. 5. Monthly Timeframe: Macro Structural Themes Institutional positioning in Bitcoin increasingly aligns with high-impact monthly data. These indicators help shape longer-term views on liquidity, rate policy, and capital allocation: Unemployment Rate: A rising unemployment rate could shift market expectations toward a more accommodative monetary policy. Bitcoin, often viewed as a hedge against fiat debasement and monetary easing, can benefit from this shift. In contrast, a low and steady unemployment rate may pressure BTC as it reinforces the case for higher interest rates. 10-Year Treasury Yield (again): On a monthly basis, this repeats and become a cornerstone macro theme. Initial Jobless Claims (again): Rather than individual weekly prints, the broader trend reveals structural shifts in the labor market. 6. Style-Based Strategy Insights Bitcoin traders often span a wide range of styles—from short-term volatility hunters to long-duration macro allocators. Aligning indicator focus by style is essential: o Day Traders Zero in on M2 velocity and 10-Year Yield to time intraday reversals or continuation setups. Quick pivots in bond yields or liquidity metrics could coincide with BTC spikes. o Swing Traders Use Initial Jobless Claims and ISM Employment trends to track momentum for 3–10 day moves. Weekly data may help catch directional shifts before they appear in price charts. o Position Traders Monitor macro structure via Unemployment Rate, 10Y Yield, and Initial Claims. These traders align portfolios based on broader economic trends, often holding exposure through cycles. 7. Risk Management Commentary Bitcoin Futures demand tactical risk management: Use Micro BTC Contracts (MBT) to scale in or out of trades precisely. Expect volatility around macro data releases—set wider stops with volatility-adjusted sizing. Avoid over-positioning near major Fed meetings, CPI prints, or labor reports. Unlike legacy markets, BTC can make multi-percent intraday moves. A robust risk plan isn’t optional—it’s survival. 8. Conclusion Bitcoin has matured into a macro-responsive asset. What once moved on hype now responds to the pulse of the global economy. From M2 liquidity flows and interest rate expectations, to labor market stability, BTC Futures reflect institutional sentiment shaped by data. BTC’s role in the modern portfolio is still evolving. But one thing is clear: macro matters. And those who understand which indicators truly move Bitcoin can trade with more confidence and precision. Stay tuned for the next edition of the "Behind the Curtain" series as we decode the economic machinery behind another CME futures product. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:BTC1!Education
by traddictiv
The Brightest Metal Right NowGold isn’t just shining, it’s on fire, burning through resistance levels as investors seek shelter from global chaos. Figure 1: Gold Prices Climbing to New Highs Gold surged past $3,000 per ounce this March, setting 16 record highs this year alone. While it took more than a decade for gold to gain 1,000 points previously, this time it took less than two years. Figure 2: Correction in the Equities and Cryptocurrencies In stark contrast, the S&P 500 has dropped 10% since its February peak, marking its first correction since 2023. Bitcoin has also plunged to $81,000, a 25% decline since U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration. The AI-driven momentum that propelled tech stocks and the broader equity market higher in 2024 appears to have faded. Figure 3: Historical Reactions to Crisis The correction in equities and crypto stands in sharp contrast to gold’s rally—an outcome that should come as no surprise given gold’s reputation as a safe-haven asset. Historically, financial crises and major market pullbacks have consistently triggered capital flows into gold as investors seek refuge from economic uncertainty. This time, gold’s outperformance is driven by a “perfect storm” of prolonged geopolitical tensions, escalating trade disputes, political uncertainty under Trump’s second term, and a weakening U.S. dollar. The CNN Business Fear & Greed Index, a widely used measure of market sentiment, has remained in the “fear” and “extreme fear” zones. This stems largely from Trump’s protectionist policies, which have sparked swift retaliation from U.S. trading partners. With new tariff headlines surfacing almost daily, the future of economic policy and inflation has become increasingly uncertain, injecting heightened volatility into global markets. This has, in turn, strengthened gold’s appeal as a hedge against instability. Figure 4: Gold’s Demand is not Limited to Investors According to the World Gold Council, investment demand for gold doubled year-over-year in 2024. However, central banks have been the real drivers of demand, purchasing over 1,000 tons of gold for three consecutive years; accounting for 21% of global demand in 2024. The rising U.S. budget deficit and Trump’s "America First" policies have created additional risks for central banks holding large reserves of U.S. Treasuries. The ongoing tariff war not only undermines confidence in the U.S. as a reliable trade partner but also raises concerns about the U.S. dollar’s long-term stability as a safe-haven asset. This has accelerated the de-dollarization process, prompting many central banks to stockpile gold as a hedge against dollar exposure. Unlike investors who may hesitate to buy gold at record highs, central banks operate based on mandates, making them less price-sensitive. They are willing to continue accumulating gold at elevated levels, reinforcing sustained demand for the precious metal. Figure 5: A Weakening Dollar Since most gold futures contracts are denominated in U.S. dollars, a weaker dollar makes gold relatively cheaper for non-U.S. buyers, supporting its price. This negative correlation between the two assets has been a key driver of gold’s recent surge. The Trump administration has long argued that the U.S. dollar’s global dominance has kept it too strong for too long, hurting American manufacturers and contributing to deindustrialization. Further, a strong dollar reduces the price competitiveness of U.S. exports and has widened the trade deficit, leading the administration to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. While the Fed maintains its independence and data-driven approach, inflation trends continue to justify further easing. The market has already priced in three quarter-point rate cuts for this year, with expectations that the first cut could come as early as June. Gaining Access to Gold Historically, the London over-the-counter (OTC) market, operated by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), has been the largest gold trading center. Traders use the LBMA gold price as the global benchmark for gold transactions, including central bank purchases. On the other hand, the futures market is the preferred choice for hedge funds, bullion dealers, refineries, and mints to hedge against price fluctuations. Retail investors also typically gain exposure to gold through futures contracts, most commonly via the COMEX gold futures market. However, executing arbitrage strategies between the OTC and futures markets is capital-intensive and logistically challenging. Traditional arbitrage requires buying physical gold in the LBMA market at a lower price while simultaneously selling COMEX futures at a higher price. This involves storing, insuring, and shipping gold to COMEX-approved vaults, making it difficult to determine the fair value of the spread. Figure 6: B3 Gold Futures Contract A more accessible alternative is emerging: Brazil’s B3 Exchange will soon list a new gold futures contract referencing the LBMA gold price. This new contract offers several advantages: Easier arbitrage execution: Traders can capitalize on price discrepancies between the B3 contract and COMEX futures. Lower capital requirements: The contract size is just one troy ounce, 1/100th of the standard COMEX contract, allowing for greater flexibility in position sizing and risk management. Financial settlement: Both the B3 and COMEX one-ounce contracts are cash-settled, eliminating the logistical challenges of physical delivery. Putting into Practice Case Study 1: Arbitrage Strategy Figure 7: Current Available Gold Futures A comparison of the existing gold futures contracts highlights key differences in specifications, including fineness, contract size, and settlement methods. While these variations cater to the diverse needs of hedgers managing different gold inventories, they pose challenges for traders looking to establish arbitrage strategies due to mismatches in contract structures. The introduction of B3’s new gold futures contract addresses these limitations by aligning closely with the COMEX 1-ounce gold contract. This structural similarity simplifies the process of determining fair value in spread pricing, making arbitrage strategies more feasible. The primary distinction between the two lies in their price settlement methods, which, interestingly, also forms the basis of arbitrage opportunities between futures and spot prices. Additionally, traders can now take advantage of price discrepancies between the two LBMA daily fixing prices by utilizing the B3 Gold and TFEX Gold Online futures contracts. This expands the range of arbitrage opportunities and enhances market efficiency for gold traders. Case Study 2: Directional Strategy By considering all the factors – gold’s safe-haven appeal, geopolitical tensions, central banks accumulation, and a weakening dollar – we believe that this is not the end of the gold rally. An investor looking to express a bullish view on gold could do so by buying the B3 one-ounce futures contract, gaining exposure to gold’s price movements in a more accessible and cost-effective manner. Conclusion As global uncertainties mount, gold’s resilience remains undeniable. Whether as a hedge against inflation, a refuge from geopolitical turmoil, or a tool for strategic trading, gold continues to prove its value in times of crisis. With central banks stockpiling at record levels, the metal’s rally may still have room to run. For investors navigating today’s volatile landscape, gold is not just a safe-haven, it’s a strategic asset poised for continued strength. It is extremely timely to have new trading instruments like B3’s gold futures providing more accessible opportunities for investors. For traders looking to enhance liquidity and capitalize on bid-ask spread, B3 also offers a market-making program. Interested participants can reach out to the exchange for further details.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by inspirante
Will STX Outperform Bitcoin?In the crypto market, if you want to beat the market, your benchmark is $CRYPTO:BTCUSD. That means to outperform the crypto market, you need to outperform Bitcoin. One way to measure this is by watching crypto/BTC pairs, such as $BINANCE:STXBTC. If $BINANCE:STXBTCgoes up, it means STX is stronger than BTC. If it goes down, BTC is stronger than STX. On the daily chart, BINANCE:STXBTC has been moving downward, but over the past month, sellers seem to be losing momentum—indicated by a falling wedge reversal pattern. A bullish breakout above 0.000000770 would confirm the pattern, with a potential upside target at 0.000000993 – 0.000001055. This scenario remains valid as long as price holds above 0.000000699.
Long
by EkyFabyanto
Next Volatility Period: Around April 25-29 Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please click "Boost" as well. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- (BTCUSDT 1W chart) The key is whether it can receive support near the OBV Line indicator (84349.94) on the 1M chart and rise above the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart. - (1D chart) (Movement in a wide range) If you look at the lines drawn with multiple lines, you can see that it is currently moving sideways within the section that the fingers are pointing to. It may seem a bit complicated, but the key is in which direction the finger points out. (Narrow range movement) After the volatility period of around April 14-17, there is a possibility that the short-term trend will change. The next volatility period is expected to be around April 25-29 (up to April 24-30). Therefore, the point of interest is whether it will fall below the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart and show a downward trend, or rise above the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart and show an upward trend. In other words, you need to look at whether it will rise along the trend line (2) or fall along the trend line (4). - As I said before, if the StochRSI indicator is above 50, it is better to focus on finding a selling point. The reason is that even if it rises, the upward trend is likely to be limited. If the trading volume increases explosively when it shows support at a certain support and resistance point or section, it is possible that it will lead to a large increase, but it is a rare case, so it is better to refrain from expecting it. - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful transaction. -------------------------------------------------- - ​​Here is an explanation of the big picture. I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire section of BTC. I rewrote it to update the previous chart while touching the Fibonacci ratio section of 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10). (Previous BTCUSD 12M chart) Looking at the big picture, it seems to have maintained an upward trend following a pattern since 2015. In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market. Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025. - (Current BTCUSD 12M chart) Based on the currently written Fibonacci ratio, it is displayed up to 3.618 (178910.15). It is expected that it will not fall again below the Fibonacci ratio of 0.618 (44234.54). (BTCUSDT 12M chart) Based on the BTCUSDT chart, I think it is around 42283.58. - I will explain it again with the BTCUSD chart. The Fibonacci ratio ranges marked in the green boxes, 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10) and 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83), are expected to be important support and resistance ranges. In other words, it seems likely that they will act as volume profile ranges. Therefore, in order to break through these ranges upward, I think the point to watch is whether they can receive support and rise near the Fibonacci ratios of 1.618 (89126.41) and 2.618 (134018.28). Therefore, the maximum rising range in 2025 is expected to be the 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83) range. In order to do that, we need to see if it is supported and rises near 2.618 (134018.28). If it falls after the bull market in 2025, we don't know how far it will fall, but based on the previous decline, we expect it to fall by about -60% to -70%. Therefore, if it starts to fall near the Fibonacci ratio 3.14 (157451.83), it seems likely that it will fall to around Fibonacci 0.618 (44234.54). I will explain more details when the bear market starts. ------------------------------------------------------
by readCrypto
Bitcoin: Watch For These Break Out Scenarios.Bitcoin is consolidating within a very tight range: between 83 and 86K. Which way it breaks is a matter of catalyst, but recognizing the break can help to better shape expectations on this time horizon. IF 83K breaks, I will be watching for the higher low scenario (see blue square), for confirmations to go long. IF 86K breaks, I will be anticipating a test of the 88 K resistance (see arrow). What happens after that is anyone's guess. This is NOT about forecasting the future, it is about considering multiple scenarios and then adjusting as the market offers new information. This evaluation can be helpful on multiple time frames if you know how to use it. For example, a break of the 83K support can be a great day trade opportunity on time frames like the 5 minute. A test of the 78K to 80K area followed by a confirmation can offer a long opportunity on the swing trade or day trade time frames. A test of the 88K or 90K resistance levels can offer aggressive short opportunities on smaller time frames as well. You have to be prepared for the possibility of the corresponding pattern to appear (bullish/bearish reversal) and confirmation. From there risk can be effectively quantified and taking action becomes reasonable. Getting stuck on 1 scenario rather then being prepared for multiple possibilities makes you inflexible because there is NO precision in financial markets (unless you're on the micro structure level MOST retail traders are NOT). The scenarios I explained here can unfold over the week or take longer, AGAIN is it a matter of catalyst or surprise news event. As far as the bigger picture, nothing has changed. The 76K AREA low is a double bottom, which translates into a broader higher low when you look back over the year. This higher low structure implies Bitcoin is still generally BULLISH which means betting on resistance levels can be considered a lower probability outcome. This also means current prices are still attractive investment levels as long as you are sizing strategically. IF price manages to break below 65K over the next quarter, then I would say investing should be more limited since such a break implies the impulse structure is no longer in play. Other than that, seasonal volume typically peaks around this time of year in the stock market, which means the next few months are more likely to be less eventful and contain smaller price ranges etc. There are always exceptions and news catalysts will still cause price spikes, but the dramatic nature like we have seen will likely be smaller. So unless there are any surprises in Bitcoin, be prepared for slow grinds or less eventful movements generally speaking. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
11
Bitcoin is nearing a critical breakout zone at $86,000Bitcoin is nearing a critical breakout zone at $86,000. If this level breaks with strong momentum, we could see a rapid bullish continuation toward the major resistance area around $105,000. The ascending channel remains intact, and aggressive buying near support points to a strong upside setup. From a fundamental view, Bitcoin is gaining strength as global uncertainty rises. The latest escalation of trade tariffs has disrupted traditional markets, pushing more investors toward alternative assets like Bitcoin. Historically, Bitcoin has performed strongly during times of economic instability. Tightening monetary policies worldwide are fueling recession fears, making Bitcoin even more attractive as a hedge — the new "digital gold." With institutional interest growing, Bitcoin is well-positioned for a significant capital inflow. Stay ready — the next big move is close! 🚀
Long
by megvipofficial
Skeptic | Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Analysis: Why 85850 is Critical!The breakout above 85,850 could push Bitcoin into a new uptrend phase, potentially driving price toward 90K, 95K, and even 105K in the coming weeks. That’s why this zone is so important. But let me explain why in more detail. ⭐Let’s start with the daily timeframe. After breaking out of its descending trendline, BTC entered a range between 82,800 and 85,850 . Looking at the bigger picture, you’ll see that 88,500 is a key resistance level — and breaking above it could act as a strong trigger. But if you’re not a breakout trader and prefer reactive entries, the 80K–82K zone is a major PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone) based on RSI, Fibonacci, and Pivot Points — meaning it could offer a decent spot-buying opportunity. Just keep in mind: we’re not officially in a daily uptrend yet, so if you’re thinking about spot buying, it’s better to wait for a confirmed higher low and higher high on the daily chart. The long-term target for the next uptrend is around 140K , based on long-term Fibonacci extensions, pivot points, and trend channels. 🔮 Now let’s drop to the 4H timeframe to find some long and short triggers. As you can see, we’ve got a range box between 83,055 and 85,853.89. A long trigger activates after a clean breakout above 85,853.89. A short trigger activates after a breakdown below 83,055. It’s better to use stop buy/sell orders rather than entering at market price, since price may move sharply after staying in this box for quite a while. You can also use this box to set your stop losses. If you’re a reaction-based trader, you could: Short around 85,853 when price reacts there, Or go long around 83,055, depending on your personal strategy. Just remember: crypto markets often fake breakouts, especially during low-volume periods like now. Indicators like RSI, Volume, and SMA can help confirm moves. Understanding momentum — when it’s present and when it’s not — can save you from taking unnecessary trades. Also, the candlestick itself matters a lot: How long is the shadow? What’s the body size and color? Are we getting strong bullish or bearish confirmations? If you want a tutorial on identifying real vs. fake breakouts, let me know in the comments — I’ll make one soon. If you enjoyed the analysis, hit that Boost By the way, I’m Skeptic.
by SkepticWise
1
BTCUSD - Technical Structure Shows Bullish Continuation AheadBitcoin is currently showing signs of strength as it consolidates around the $85,000 level, with technical evidence suggesting a higher probability move to the upside. The chart depicts a recovery from the recent support zone (highlighted in blue) around $76,000-$77,000, with price action forming a series of higher lows since early April. While some short-term volatility may persist, the overall structure appears bullish as BTC continues to hold above the critical $85,000 horizontal level. Traders should watch for a potential pullback before the anticipated upward continuation, as suggested by the brief downward movement in the arrow pattern, which could offer an attractive entry opportunity before the next leg higher. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:BTCUSDLong
by financialflagship
BTC - Halving Cycle | Historical Patterns & 2025-2026 Projection In this chart, we dive deep into the cyclical nature of Bitcoin price action post-halving and draw parallels between past and current movements, with a specific focus on how the market has historically reacted at various intervals following each halving event. This analysis incorporates both structural and temporal elements, providing a potential roadmap based on previous behavior. --- Historical Context: Previous Cycles 3rd Halving – May 11, 2020 Following the 3rd Bitcoin halving, we observed a parabolic run-up over the next several months: - 11 months after halving (April 2021): BTC reached a major peak, hitting nearly $65,000. - This was followed by a significant correction. - 19 months after halving (December 2021): Bitcoin printed a second top close to the previous all-time high, forming a classic double top pattern. This structure often signals market exhaustion and precedes deeper corrections. Cycle Completion – Price Reversion By 30 months after the 3rd halving (around November 2022), BTC had retraced much of its gains and returned to prices nearly equivalent to the halving level (~$8,000–$10,000 zone in log-adjusted terms). This marked the end of the cycle, confirming a full reversion to the mean after the double-top distribution phase. --- Current Cycle: 4th Halving – April 19, 2024 We're now entering the 4th post-halving cycle , and so far, the structure appears to be rhyming closely with the previous cycle : - Pre-halving rally took BTC to ~ FWB:73K (March 2024), indicating strong bullish momentum leading into the event. - If this cycle follows a similar path, we may expect: - A first major top around 9 months after the halving , potentially at or above $100K. - A second top forming around 17 months after the halving (projected for September 2025), possibly signaling the beginning of a broader correction phase. --- Projection: October 2026 (30 Months After Halving) Using the same temporal framework: - By October 2026 (30 months post-halving), the chart suggests a return to a much lower level , possibly around $50K. - This projection mimics the post-double-top decline of the previous cycle, reinforcing the idea of cyclical mean reversion . - It’s important to note: this isn’t necessarily bearish, but it highlights the cyclical and psychological nature of markets —boom, euphoria, distribution, and reversion. --- The Macro View: Halving Cycles Are Rhythmic - Every halving has historically set off a new bull run, but the timing of tops and bottoms is shockingly consistent : - Peaks often occur 9–18 months post-halving . - Full cycle completion is around 30 months post-halving. - These cycles are heavily influenced by supply shocks , market psychology , and macro liquidity cycles . --- Final Thoughts This chart isn’t a guarantee—it’s a probability model based on cyclical symmetry. If history repeats or rhymes, we may be witnessing another textbook cycle play out, where a euphoric run in 2025 gives way to a deep correction by late 2026. Stay alert for the double top pattern and macro divergences. Just as in 2021, timing the exit after the first peak can be the difference between profit and pain . What do you think? Will Bitcoin follow the same 30-month post-halving trajectory?
by Louigi_24
68
TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #67👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro! Let’s move on to the analysis of Bitcoin and key crypto indicators. In this analysis, as usual, I want to review the New York futures session triggers for you. ✔️ Yesterday, the price was rejected from the 85,550 area, and today could be a sensitive and important day for the market. ⏳ 1-Hour Timeframe In the 1-hour timeframe, I mentioned yesterday that the 85,126 trigger had been activated and if the price pulled back to this area and broke above 85,550, we could witness a bullish move and the start of an upward wave. But that didn’t happen—the price was rejected from the 85,550 high and started moving downward. 👀 Currently, with the price stabilizing below the 85,126 area, selling volume has entered the market, and the price is moving down. The last candle closed below the 84,363 area, and the RSI has entered the oversold zone. If the move continues, the price could experience a bearish leg and move down to 83,233. 🔽 In that case, a break below the 83,233 area could be a good short position trigger, as it would give us confirmation of a trend reversal. But if the move doesn’t continue, this level could turn out to be a fake-out, and the price might head back toward the 85,550 high. 🎲 So today, you can enter a short position with a break of 83,233, and a long position with a break of 85,550. Pay attention to volume and RSI, as they can provide many confirmations for the next price trend. 👑 BTC.D Analysis Let’s look at Bitcoin dominance. Yesterday, dominance dropped another leg and broke the 63.76 low, but now it has returned to this area and is stabilizing above it. 📈 For a bullish confirmation, dominance needs to stabilize above the 64.12 area, and for a bearish one, it needs to stabilize below 63.12. 📅 Total2 Analysis Now for the Total2 analysis. This index was rejected from the 965 area yesterday and is now stabilizing below 954. If the bearish momentum continues, the next support level that could hold the price is 932. 🔼 To turn bullish, a break above 965 is required, with the main trigger being 980. 📅 USDT.D Analysis Let’s look at Tether dominance. Yesterday, it made an upward move and was supported at the 5.44 level. It has now reached 5.52. ✨ If 5.52 is broken, we’ll have confirmation of a bullish trend in dominance. If 5.44 is broken instead, we could anticipate a bearish move and potentially a break of 5.39. ❌ Disclaimer ❌ Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel. Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
Long
by tradecitypro
22
Bitcoin’s Breakout Blueprint: Eyeing $92K​As of April 20, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $84,500, having recently tested the $92,000 level multiple times. This price point is significant, serving as both a psychological barrier and a technical resistance level.​ Technical Analysis: Resistance and Support Levels: Bitcoin has encountered resistance near $92,000, a level that has been tested repeatedly. A sustained move above this could open the path toward $100,000 and potentially $108,000, the previous all-time high from December 2024. On the downside, support is observed around $85,650, aligning with the 200-day EMA. Further support lies at $78,000 and $74,500, marking previous consolidation zones. ​ Chart Patterns: The formation of a bullish pennant on the daily chart suggests potential for an upward breakout. If confirmed, this pattern could propel BTC toward $137,000 by Q3 2025. ​ Volume and Momentum: Recent trading volumes have been moderate, with a slight uptick during price advances, indicating growing buyer interest. Momentum indicators, such as the RSI, are neutral, leaving room for further price movements in either direction.​ Fundamental Factors: Institutional Inflows: Significant capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, exceeding $70 billion, have been observed, reflecting strong institutional interest. ​ CryptoRank Macroeconomic Environment: Liquidity injections by the U.S. Treasury, amounting to $500 billion since February 2025, have increased market liquidity, which historically correlates with Bitcoin price appreciation. ​ Halving Effect: The April 2024 Bitcoin halving event has reduced the supply of new BTC, a factor that has historically led to substantial price increases in subsequent months.​ Mid-Term Outlook: Considering the technical and fundamental factors, Bitcoin's mid-term target remains at $92,000. A decisive break above this level could lead to a retest of the $100,000 psychological barrier and potentially higher targets. However, failure to maintain support above $85,650 may result in a consolidation phase or a retest of lower support levels.​ Investors should monitor key resistance and support levels, institutional investment trends, and macroeconomic indicators to assess Bitcoin's trajectory in the coming months.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by insidermike
BITCOIN - Price can little correct and then make impulse upHi guys, this is my overview for BTCUSDT, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 Recently price broke through the $79500 zone after a long phase of flat consolidation and sharp shakeout. Once bulls reclaimed control, price formed a clean breakout and started building structure inside a wedge. Momentum carried the price upward, with buyers defending each local dip and creating a stair-step rise. Now BTC is moving steadily inside the wedge pattern, holding the lower trendline with no strong rejection. Price is slowly grinding toward the key resistance around $88500, where volatility might return. If this tempo holds, I expect BTC can grow higher and tag the $91000 points in the next impulsive leg. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Long
by WalterMoon
20
Bitcoin may exit from pennant and fall to support levelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. Over the past weeks, the price traded inside a broad horizontal range, repeatedly testing the boundaries of the seller zone and the buyer zone. After several failed breakouts, the price sharply dropped from the upper range and entered a phase of lower highs, forming a downward pennant structure. Inside this pennant, the market continued consolidating under pressure from the resistance area. Each attempt to break above the resistance line was met with rejection, confirming strong selling interest near the current resistance level at 88500. At the moment, BTC is testing the upper boundary of the pennant again. This area aligns closely with the resistance level and the long-term descending trendline. Given this confluence and historical rejection zones, I expect BTC to face resistance and reverse, initiating a decline back toward the 79000 support level, thereby exiting from the pennant, which is my current TP1. The compressed price structure, repeated rejections, and clean pattern formation support this bearish outlook in the short term. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Short
by LegionQ8
4
Bitcoin Bottom- i saw many traders using vrvp or vpvr like and claiming BTC will go 10k. - They just don't know how to use this tool and didn't understand how it works. - if u don't know how to use a tool, simply don't use it. so less people's will rekt. this is an advanced trading tool. - The Timeline of those tools are VERY IMPORTANT, they cannot be set up from 2015 or 2013. What happened when BTC was Bearish : - Actually when BTC dipped from 30,000$ ish, the columns started in the vrpv darker zone ( Less Demand ) - BTC reached 20,000$ and columns started to grow ( Demand Zone but Fear "Retailers" ) - Then dipped 17,500$ and the columns diminished size ( Good Demand " Smart Money" ) - This is at this point that you can detect a BOTTOM Zone. ( Darker zones + Small Columns ) Then what happened when BTC was Bullish : - if you watch VRVP when BTC was growing you will notice the inverse. - The Main demand was around 30,000$. - BTC Reached 50,000$ and VRVP started to be darker ( More Demand impulse "FOMO" ). - Then BTC reached 70,000$ ( No Demand ). ( Darker zones + Small Columns ) - i will post an exemple under this post to show a bad use of VRVP/VPVR. please don't use it that way. Happy Tr4Ding !
Long
by thecryer
21
TheKing Cycles- Nothing can be perfect in Life or in Trading, but you can always brighten up your day. - Remember "Cycles are Cycles" - Everything is in graph - You can follow bears, predicting 10 years of recession, but we are in a big recession and for a long time already. - You can fall in the deep and predict the darkness. - i like to see the sunshine in the morning and i will always radiate warmth. - Follow Hope, and always believe in your own judgement. - Be Bold and do the opposite of what commons peoples think. Happy Tr4Ding !
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by thecryer
15
Choose your Side- i often compare TheKing with Nasdaq right now. - Have a main reason : - NAS100 (Nasdaq) have mostly "Top Tech Companies" acting as Thermometers in this index. - SPX (SP500) have Tech Companies + traditional ones. Nasdaq Companies are also included in SPX, but 500 Companies start to be a lot. - DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) is a Mastodons, i don't use it much because this top 30 is too mixed ( coca cola, boeing, techs, big banks, nike.. etc). - i mostly use very high TFs, i prefer look from far, less noise, more easy and less headaches. - i use sometimes to trade with 1D, H12, H4 TFs but when we are bullish. In bearmarket, it's hard to find entries points in bearish mode. - i don't short markets and accumulate more coins/tokens, so i just DCA, Dollar Cost Averaging is investing a fixed amount of money into a particular investment at regular intervals. - so this chart is basically only about MACD : - it's really interesting to see Nasdaq making another red columns in 3W TF, while the markets should recover slowly. - if you take a look at BTC, columns stayed in Light Red Color and reducing size. What could it means ? - Keep in mind that BTC is not a STOCK. - One of the most pivotal events on Bitcoin's blockchain is the halving, when the supply of new bitcoins is cut in half (2024). - BTC have 21M Supplies and that's all. no more will be created. - At any time BTC could stop to follow Nasdaq and do his way, TheKing used to do that before already. - A small bounce in Nasdaq could be also a huge move for BTC. - " Choose your side " and DCA the money you don't need for living. Happy Tr4Ding !
SKILLING:US100Long
by thecryer
The Black Swan Method- Making TA as a trader is like reading a magical ball but some major unpredictable events are out of control. - i usually accurate most of the time but i should be a fool to think i am always right, it's impossible to make TA in that markets conditions. - So this post is not to make some kind of predictions but to warn peoples on what's going on right now. - i will try to explain very basically the situation (with my bad english skills, so forgive me if i make some mistakes) : 1/ the first attack was based on Luna and UST, some entities started to short UST/Luna with some billions $, FTX and SBF surely did it. Luna tried to save the situation with their BTC reserve but it was effortless. they lost all. (Luna have never been hacked, important to specify this ) 2/ the fail of UST was the first step to create a snowball effect. 3/ 3AC, Celsius, Voyager, and much more were all involved in Luna/UST and Anchor Protocol witch was giving 18% returns on UST. They used customers funds in UST and staked, when the situation started to turn really bad for Luna, they tried to save the situation trading customers funds and they failed. (any of those companies have been hacked, important to specify this ) 4/ FTX used customers funds and started to short their own products, FTT, SOL, SRM, etc , Binance saw the move and twitted that they will drop all their FTT. FTX locked their customers wallets. FTX used 8B$ Customers funds to short markets. they are still right now trying to short USDT on Binance. (FTX have never been hacked, important to specify this). 5/ The snow ball started to be transformed in an avalanche. The damage here is huge. An exchange implosion of this magnitude is a gift to bitcoin haters all over the world. 6/ Sam bankman-fried was a Trojan horse in the crypto space, surely backed by banks and govs, a kind of worm witch have to be eradicated. 7/ Soon bankers will tell you, " u saw what happened with your exchanges ??!!, better use CDBC and stick with Banks!! ", this is their ultimate goal. - i pray for everyone who got caught up in this mess and lost money with those bad actors. - i hope you take care of yourself and continue to be a part of this journey. - i hope it doesn't turn you off of crypto witch are here to stay in the future. - BTC is resilient. No matter the magnitude of the earthquake. - Buy BTC - Store in Ledger, Trezor or Paper Wallet. - Hodl and come back later. Have faith in what you believe and fight. Thanks for reading! PS : Not sure this post will get me banned or censored, but at this point the freedom of speech is an human right.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by thecryer
24