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Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)

Bitcoin - Waiting for a clear breakout!About an hour ago, Bitcoin (BTC) managed to fully fill the 1-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG). After touching the upper boundary of this gap, the price reacted sharply and quickly reversed, which resulted in the formation of a Swing Failure Pattern (SFP). What is a SFP? A Swing Failure Pattern, or SFP, occurs when the price briefly moves above a previous high but fails to sustain that move. In this scenario, the price only sweeps above the previous high with a wick, but the candle does not close above it. This often signals that buyers could not maintain control, and it can lead to a reversal or a loss of momentum. Narrow range Currently, BTC is trading within a narrow range between 106,600 and 110,600. Within this range, the price is moving up and down without breaking out in either direction. On the 1-hour chart, BTC respected the FVG a few hours ago, which suggests that bullish momentum might still have a chance to develop. Bullish breakout For a bullish breakout, we would want to see BTC break above 111,000 with strong buying momentum. If this happens, the price could turn the current resistance into new support and potentially make a move toward the all-time high (ATH). Bearish breakout On the other hand, a bearish breakout would require the price to close below 106,600 with significant volume. If BTC closes below this level, the support could turn into resistance, and a drop toward 100,000 would become a real possibility. Conclusion In my view, BTC showed strength by holding the 1-hour FVG, but after the latest move upward, it failed to break through resistance and instead formed a SFP. Because of this, I expect a pullback toward 108,000 or even 106,000. At this stage, it’s best to be patient and wait for a clear breakout in either direction before making any major trading decisions. If you want to protect your capital, it’s wise to wait for confirmation before entering a new position. Thanks for your support. - Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis! - Drop a like and leave a comment!
by Youriverse
8
Bitcoin Bounce on Trump Tariff Delay – Short Setup Still Valid!Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) started to fall as I expected in the previous idea , and declined near the Support lines . Bitcoin started pumping after the news that " US President Trump agreed to postpone 50% EU tariffs until July 9th ." Do you think this pumping of Bitcoin will continue? Bitcoin is trading in a Heavy Resistance zone($110,000-$105,800) near the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) . From the Elliott Wave theory perspective , Bitcoin appears to be in corrective waves , which is why I am labeling this idea as a ''Short''. The corrective waves structure is of the Expanding Flat(ABC/3-3-5) type. I expect Bitcoin to attack the Support lines once again, and if these lines are broken, it will decline to the Targets I have indicated on the chart. Notes : MicroStrategy bought another 4,020 Bitcoins, but it didn't have much of an impact on the market. If the Bitcoin price falls back below $109,000, about $185 million in long Bitcoin positions will be liquidated . = Attractive for exchanges Bitcoin 2025 Conference to be Held in Las Vegas, Tuesday-Thursday = Could Cause Market Excitement . Note: If Bitcoin touches $112,080, we should expect more pumping. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
18
TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #103👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro! Let’s dive into Bitcoin and key crypto indices. As usual, in this analysis I’ll walk you through the triggers for the New York futures session. ⏳ 1-Hour Timeframe As you can see on the 1-hour chart, Bitcoin was rejected from the 110128 resistance yesterday and began a pullback, but it didn't reach the support at 107010 — instead, it formed a higher low and is now moving back toward 110128. 📊 Buy volume during this bullish leg has been relatively low, which isn’t ideal for a strong uptrend and indicates potential weakness. 📈 If the 110128 resistance breaks, a long position can be considered. However, if you take this trade, I suggest not setting your target at 111747 — instead, aim for higher targets and hold the position longer. 💥 The main long trigger remains at 111747. So if you missed or don’t want to trade the 110128 breakout, you can wait for this higher confirmation. 🔽 As for short setups, just like yesterday, it's still better to wait for a trend reversal. As long as the price remains above the support zone, the uptrend remains intact. 👑 BTC.D Analysis Bitcoin Dominance broke above 64.32 yesterday but failed to hold and fell back below it, also breaking the 64.18 support. It’s now moving toward 63.97. ⭐ Currently, there is strong bearish momentum in BTC.D, and if 63.97 is broken, this downward move is likely to continue. 📅 Total2 Analysis Total2 printed a higher low above 1.18 and has now broken above the 1.22 resistance. ✨ If it can hold above this level, we could see an upward move toward 1.26. For bearish confirmation and short positions, a break below 1.18 would be the key trigger. 📅 USDT.D Analysis USDT Dominance printed a lower high compared to 4.62 and is now sitting on support at 4.49. A break below this level could push the dominance down to 4.38. 🎲 To confirm a bullish reversal in USDT.D, we would need to see a break above 4.62. ❌ Disclaimer ❌ Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel. Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
Long
by tradecitypro
6
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) – Flag Breakout Points to $114KHello guys! Bitcoin continues to respect the bullish structure within its ascending channel, and we just got a clean breakout from a textbook bull flag. After a solid move higher earlier this month, BTC cooled off inside a tight flag pattern, consolidating above $106K. That pullback helped reset momentum, and now we’ve broken out with conviction. You can read about it here: We’re currently hovering around $ 109.8 K. A short-term retest of the breakout zone near $108K–$108.5K wouldn’t be surprising. it could even offer a great entry opportunity before the next leg up. If momentum holds, the projected target from this flag pattern lands in the $113.5K–$114K zone. watch these: Support: $107.5K–$108.5K Target: $114K Invalidation: Break below $107K Bias remains bullish unless we lose the channel structure.
Long
by melikatrader94
18
Bitcoin can continue to grow inside upward channelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. If we looks at this chart we can see how the price, after a healthy correction, the price started rising steadily within an upward channel. Along the way, price broke through the first key level and, after some consolidation, managed to overcome the second one as well. Currently, the price is trading just below the resistance line of the ascending channel. This structure shows that buyers remain in control, and bullish momentum is holding strong despite occasional pullbacks. The overall trend remains upward, and the asset respects the lower boundary of the channel as dynamic support. At the moment, I expect a minor downward move as a short-term correction. This would allow BTC to retest the local support area, strengthening the base before the next leg up. After that, I anticipate further growth, and a breakout toward the upper boundary of the channel is likely. That’s why my TP 1 is set at 115800 points - a potential new ATH aligned with the resistance line of the current structure. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Long
by LegionQ8
7
GBPUSD BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISGBPUSD has played out exactly as forecasted, completing a clean bullish leg from the Fibonacci confluence zones and breaking through the key 1.3430 resistance level. The structure remains strongly bullish, and after this minor retest, I’m anticipating another impulsive wave to the upside, with the next target sitting firmly at the 1.3900 level. The pair continues to respect both structure and momentum, showing consistent demand on dips. Fundamentally, the British pound continues to gain strength backed by sticky inflation data and hawkish tone from the Bank of England. With UK CPI remaining elevated and core services inflation running hot, the BoE is being forced to hold its tightening bias. This contrasts sharply with the Federal Reserve, where recent data shows signs of softening labor markets and cooling price pressure, bringing rate cut expectations back on the table for the second half of 2025. Technically, GBPUSD has cleanly respected all key fib levels from the previous correction. The breakout above 1.3430 has flipped structure into bullish continuation, and the market has already begun forming higher highs and higher lows on both daily and 4H timeframes. As long as price holds above the 1.3430–1.3450 retest zone, the bullish outlook remains intact with high-probability momentum toward 1.3900. In current market sentiment, GBPUSD remains one of the strongest trending pairs, with institutions adding to long exposure as the dollar index weakens. As a professional trader, I remain long-biased and look to scale in on lower timeframe retracements. This is a textbook continuation play backed by both technicals and macro momentum. Let the trend work—bulls remain in full control.
Long
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
2
HelenP. I Bitcoin will start to decline and break trend lineHi folks today I'm prepared for you Bitcoin analytics. Observing this chart, we can see how the price dropped from support 2, which coincided with the support zone and reached the trned line. Then it turned around and started to grow, and soon reached the 83700 support level again and even broke it. Next, price some time traded near this level and after a retest, it turned around and made an impulse up, after which it turned around and then declined to the trend line, after which it rose to support 1, which coincided with one more support zone. Soon, BTC broke the 101400 level and then repeated movement when it traded near the support 2 level. Price, after trading near the 101400 level, rebounded from the trend line and rose to new ARH 112000 points and then went into correction. At the moment, I expect that BTCUSDT will start to decline, break the trend line, and continue to fall to the support zone. That's why I set my goal near this area, at the 102700 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Short
by FirstNameHelen
2
BITCOIN repeating every Cycle's final rally!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been on a strong rally since the April 2025 bottom on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and that's perfectly aligned with the 1W MA50 rebound it had on the previous two Cycles in June 2021 and June 2017. As you can see, those (blue circles) where the All Time High (ATH) Pivot trend-line test before the final (parabolic) rally of the Cycle started, which was its most aggressive part. In 2017 it was much stronger and the price rallied much higher, which is natural as the market was much less mature (institutionally) than today, but it is not improbable to get a rally similar to July - November 2021. Can that be enough to push BTC to $150k and beyond? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
6
BTC Short Locked – FVG + 79% Fib = Liquidity Grab Incoming📉 BTCUSD | 1H Smart Money Short – Premium Rejection in Play Bitcoin just tapped into a nasty supply zone that aligns with: 🟥 Fair Value Gap (FVG) 🔻 79% Fibonacci Retracement 💥 Previous Breaker Block Zone 🧠 Clean Internal Liquidity sweep 🚩 Structure still bearish – no HH 🔍 1. Market Structure Breakdown Price broke down aggressively from the top (early signs of redistribution) We’re now retesting the FVG + OB zone No candle close above the Strong High = still valid bearish context 🧱 2. Zone Confluence 📍 FVG (Fair Value Gap): Imbalance created during impulsive sell-off 📍 OB + Breaker: Strong resistance holding inside 70.5%–79% retracement 📍 Strong High: Still protected 📍 Weak Low: Below = prime target for liquidity sweep Price kissed the edge of that 79% Fib and immediately rejected = 🔥 confidence for a swing short 🎯 3. Trade Plan Entry: Around 110,800 (inside FVG zone) Stop Loss: Above 112,400 (Strong High) Take Profit: 105,248 (below Weak Low liquidity) ⚖️ 4. RRR (Risk-Reward Ratio) 📥 Entry: 110,800 🔒 SL: 112,400 💰 TP: 105,248 ✅ RRR ≈ 1:3.5 Solid asymmetric setup with clearly defined structure, inducement, and imbalance = Smart Money textbook trade. 📉 5. Why This Works Retail longs are entering late = exit liquidity for big players Price filled the FVG but failed to break structure Weak low below is clean AF, likely to be swept for continuation 1H/4H alignment = high conviction short 💬 Type "SHORTED BTC 💥" if you saw this setup before the drop! 📌 Bookmark this – confluence stacking is how you win consistently 👊 Share this with someone still buying the top 📈🙃
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by ChartNinjas88
Perfect Up —Mental TA, Predicting Bitcoin's price with your MindI get, I get it... You don't like it when I publish too many Bitcoin ideas. You just don't like it when I continue to publish every single day. Since I love you and your continued support, I stopped publishing daily but I still get to publish ok? Ok! Phew! I needed to get that stuff out of my system. All is good now thank you for reading more support and the comments about the TOP10 TOP Altcoins. No bearish signals is a bullish signal. Bullish signals are bullish signals. Upgrade update improve mental programs. Bitcoin is not a mind but it was created through a mind. Everything starts first in the mind, think about it. You see? In order to conceive an idea or just to be able to grasp what I mean you have to think. Thinking happens in the mind right? How does that sound for you? Does it resonates with your thinking? Makes sense? If everything is in the mind and starts from a mind, a mind-point, then we can ask this same mind; where is Bitcoin headed next? Information can come from three places only: 1) Your own individual conscious mind. 2) The personal unconscious. 3) The collective mind (the collective unconscious in CJung terminology). If you mix your personal unconscious with the collective unconscious this can lead to mistakes. That's why some people get it right through intuition while others have it mixed. The problem is that information is mixed from the collective mind, your conscious mind and the personal unconscious. So you know that you know things that there is no way you can know. Sometimes you get it right and sometimes you get it wrong. The few times you get it right it is enough to confirm that the system is real and exist. When you get it wrong is because the information becomes mixed. Lots of practice can solve this and you win. Now that you've gained full access to your unconscious mind, ask the question, "Where is Bitcoin headed next." Detach... Relax, do not interrupt just breathe and let the answer come in whatever way. Practice, and based on the results you will know what's the meaning of the mental impressions you see. Some people get it straight up. "Bitcoin is going up." Some people get images of something positive and this needs to be interpreted. Other people hear sounds, others feelings, on and on. » Technical analysis The fact that Bitcoin continues rising moving up never down is as bullish as it gets. Remember, when there is a drop coming it drops, there is no in-between. When there is consolidation at resistance it means the bulls are in. The bulls are in means the next major move is up. There can be swings short-term but ignore and bet on the bigger move. You know the next move is a rise, 100% confirmed, based on the chart, price action and candlestick, so you can always win betting on this move because it has the highest probability. Bitcoin can't move any higher after hitting a top, think November 2021. After hitting bottom, Bitcoin can only grow. The bottom was hit in early April. Thanks a lot for your continued support. Namaste.
Long
by MasterAnanda
BTC (Y25.P2.E4). Potential bullish fractal to take placeHi traders, Price is bullish and its likely we will see more ATH to come. Here, with a peak, followed by a troph, we found support like the macro Y21 BTC price action. Hence finding that support level makes sense to long.. To early to find a long but it could come soon. Alternatively, we see a AB=CD move to 105k level, but this is looking less likely The ABC target, is 1 to 1, which aligns to take the liquidity above this ATH level. Or Its a wave 2 level and hence a bigger move of wave 3. All the best, S.SAri
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PLong
by ssari
BTCUSD: Urgently needs to break above this trendline!Bitcoin is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 65.624, MACD = 4011.100, ADX = 25.476) but not overbought anymore as the aggressive weekly rallies since the 1W MA50 rebound have been decelerated. The next heavy obstacle is the HH trendline that runs on top of the January 20th 2025 and December 16th 2024 Highs and got hit last week. So far the price hasn't crossed above it but it needs to urgently in order to avoid a rejection with snowball effects. The last time Bitcoin faced a similar HH trendline Resistance was on the October 23rd 2023 1W candle and it succesfully smashed through it, completing a +79.23% rise before consolidating again. If it breaks again above it, we expect the same minimum rally, which gives us a TP = 133,500. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by InvestingScope
1
Bitcoin Market Update – May 26, 2025📅 Bitcoin Market Update – May 26, 2025 🚀 BTC Price: $110,157 (+2.95% 24h) Bitcoin continues its upward trend, showing strong momentum and bullish sentiment across the market. 📊 Technical Snapshot: • Range: $106,801 – $110,157 • Support: $107K – $108K • Resistance: $111K – $112K • Trend: Bullish 🔗 On-Chain Metrics: • Short Squeeze Pressure: Rising on Binance • ETF Inflows: $934M → Strong institutional interest • Sentiment: Extreme Greed (Index 78) 🧭 Fundamentals: • Major ETF inflows show growing trust from big players. • Market sentiment remains highly optimistic. 📈 Forecasts: • Short-Term: $110K – $112K • Mid-Term: $112K – $125K • Long-Term: Up to $140K (depending on macro conditions) Keep an eye on 103k and 97k supporting levels as liquidity zones. ✅ Summary: BTC remains bullish with key resistance at $112K.A breakout could open room for further upside. Stay tuned and manage risk wisely. #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #SorooshX
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sorooshx
2
Bitcoin - This time different ?In 2021-22 bitcoin formed a higher high on weekly chart and then bear run of 2022 started, if we look at the bitcoin current chart the same pattern being formed. Do you think bitcoin will form the similar pattern ? In my opinion it is highly unlikely that bitcoin will see similar pattern, in 2022 the second push was due to overall market euphoria which pushed the price to new high even though bear market was already on (Bitcoin hit new ATH after crashing 55% which is unusual) If we look at the current pattern bitcoin had -30% crash, which is normal between bull runs, so its highly unlikely that bitcoin will similar fate as 2021. Follow Our TradingView Account for More Technical Analysis Updates, | Like, Share and Comment Your thoughts. Cheers GreenCrypto
Long
by GreenCryptoTrades
16
Bitcoin : Impulse up or Flat Trap!?If you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment! BTC has staged a solid move off the May 25 low — but the context matters. We’re facing two distinct, high-stakes scenarios here: one bullish, one bearish. What happens next hinges on whether the May 25 rally is the start of a new impulse or the final leg (C wave) of an expanded flat off the all-time high. Structure Breakdown Bearish View: We’re completing a textbook expanded flat from the ATH: A wave started May 23 B wave pushed to a lower low. C wave began May 25 and is likely wrapping up now If valid, this sets the stage for a powerful Wave 3 down. Bullish View: The May 25 low marked the end of a corrective phase: Rally from that low is an impulsive Wave 1 A pullback to the 108k golden zone would represent Wave 2 Wave 3/C up could follow from that base What to Watch The area around 108,000–107,100 is a magnet. If price retraces into this zone with a corrective look and holds, bulls could be in control. But if we roll over hard from here, it supports the expanded flat thesis — and a much deeper move likely follows. Outlook This is a moment for sharpen focus. The chart structure is clean, but the outcome isn't binary until we see what kind of retrace (if any) forms. Watch 108k like a hawk. If bulls defend it, there’s room to talk new highs. If we break impulsively from here, expect acceleration lower — fast. Trade safe, trade smart, trade clarity.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by CryptoKnee
1
Bitcoin - Approaching the all time high!Bitcoin - CRYPTO:BTCUSD - will break out again: (click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻) It has been quite some time since we saw such a strong move on Bitcoin. But finally - not totally unexpected to be honest - Bitcoin is following its destiny and about to create another new all time high. Patience is key and strategy, risk and mindset will help you master the volatility. Levels to watch: $100.000 Keep your long term vision! Philip (BasicTrading)
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by basictradingtv
20
BTC Crypto Futures Trade Plan 2025-05-26BTC Crypto Analysis Summary (2025-05-26) Comprehensive Summary of Each Model Grok/xAI Report BTC at $109,553, trading above all major MAs (20/50/200 SMAs, 9/21 EMAs) → strong bullish trend RSI 67.02 (approaching overbought), MACD positive but slight bearish divergence Volume declining → possible consolidation or reduced buying interest Funding rate low (0.0002%) → not overleveraged long Trade suggested: long at $110,000, SL $107,000, TP1 $113,000, TP2 $115,000, size 1% equity, confidence 80% Claude/Anthropic Report Confirms price above all key MAs, RSI approaching overbought, MACD divergence Price near upper Bollinger Band → resistance Concludes short-term momentum weakening → moderately bearish bias Recommends no trade (confidence 72%), waits for break above $111,800 or below $105,000 Llama/Meta Report Bullish MA alignment, RSI slightly overbought, price near upper BB Funding rate neutral, sentiment generally positive Trade suggested: long on pullback to SMA20 at $105,295.59, SL $103,000, TP $110,000, size = 2–3% equity, confidence 80% Gemini/Google Report Strong bullish trend (EMA9 > EMA21 > SMA20 > SMA50 > SMA200), RSI 67, BB upper ~$111,724 MACD bearish crossover → potential short-term pullback Recommends long at ~$109,550, SL $107,700, TP $113,100, size 1 BTC, confidence 75% DeepSeek Report Price near upper Bollinger Band, MACD bearish crossover, RSI divergence Countertrend short trade: entry $109,553, SL $111,725, TP $105,295, size 1 BTC, confidence 75% Areas of Agreement and Disagreement Agreement BTC is in a strong uptrend, trading above all major moving averages RSI ~67 suggests rising momentum but nearing overbought MACD shows a bearish divergence or crossover, warning of short-term momentum loss Price is close to the upper Bollinger Band → stretched conditions Disagreement Directional bias: Grok, Llama, and Gemini bullish; Claude is cautious/no-trade; DeepSeek bearish countertrend Entry levels: ranges from pullbacks to 105k (Llama) to market price ~109.55k (Gemini/Grok) Risk appetite: varying leverage and position-sizing recommendations Trade/no-trade: Claude advises holding; others recommend active positions Conclusion and Trade Recommendation Overall Market Direction Consensus Moderately Bullish: the dominant trend is up, supported by MA structure and recent performance, despite short-term momentum warnings. Recommended Trade Direction: Long BTC futures Entry Range: Near current market (109,500–109,600) or immediate retest of EMA9 (~109,550) Stop Loss: 107,700 (below EMA9 and minor support) Take Profit: 113,100 (just above recent swing highs/upper BB) Position Size: 1 BTC (adjust per account to risk ~1–2%) Confidence Level: 78% Key Risks and Considerations Momentum Divergence: MACD bearish crossover and RSI near overbought may trigger a pullback Volatility Spikes: leverage can amplify slippage and liquidation risk Broader Crypto Moves: altcoin correlation or market-wide news can quickly shift prices Funding Rate Shifts: a sudden spike could accelerate long-side liquidations TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format) { "instrument": "BTC", "direction": "long", "entry_price": 109550.0, "stop_loss": 107700.0, "take_profit": 113100.0, "size": 1, "confidence": 0.78, "entry_timing": "market_open" } 📊 TRADE DETAILS 📊 🎯 Instrument: BTC 📈 Direction: LONG 💰 Entry Price: 109550.0 🛑 Stop Loss: 107700.0 🎯 Take Profit: 113100.0 📊 Size: 1 💪 Confidence: 78% ⏰ Entry Timing: market_open Disclaimer: This newsletter is not trading or investment advice but for general informational purposes only. This newsletter represents my personal opinions based on proprietary research which I am sharing publicly as my personal blog. Futures, stocks, and options trading of any kind involves a lot of risk. No guarantee of any profit whatsoever is made. In fact, you may lose everything you have. So be very careful. I guarantee no profit whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this newsletter, its representatives, its principals, its moderators, and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CFTC, or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. By reading and using this newsletter or any of my publications, you are agreeing to these terms. Any screenshots used here are courtesy of TradingView. I am just an end user with no affiliations with them. Information and quotes shared in this blog can be 100% wrong. Markets are risky and can go to 0 at any time. Furthermore, you will not share or copy any content in this blog as it is the authors' IP. By reading this blog, you accept these terms of conditions and acknowledge I am sharing this blog as my personal trading journal, nothing more.
NYSE:XLong
by quantsignals
Bitcoin's Market Cycles — Are We Nearing the Top?Bitcoin is approaching a critical moment and the signs are everywhere. After more than 900 days of steady bull market growth, BTC now flirts with all-time highs (ATH) while momentum stalls, liquidity thins, and emotions run hot. You might be asking: Are we nearing the cycle top? Is now the time to de-risk or double down? What comes next? This isn’t just a question of price. It’s about timing, structure, and psychology. In this analysis, we’ll break down Bitcoin’s historical cycles, the current macro structure, the hidden signals from Fibonacci time extensions, and how to think like a professional when the crowd is chasing FOMO. Let’s dive in. 📚 Educational Insight: Understanding Bitcoin Cycles Bitcoin doesn’t move in straight lines, it moves in cycles. Bull markets grow slowly, then explode. Bear markets fall fast, then grind sideways. These rhythms are driven by halving events, liquidity expansions, and most importantly: human emotion. Here’s what history tells us: Historical Bull Markets: 2009–2011: 540 days (+5,189,598%) 2011–2013: 743 days (+62,086%) 2015–2017: 852 days (+12,125%) 2018–2021: 1061 days (+2,108%) 2022–Present: 917 days so far (+623%) Bear Market Durations: 2011: 164 days (-93.73%) 2013–2015: 627 days (-86.96%) 2017–2018: 362 days (-84.22%) 2021–2022: 376 days (-77.57%) 💡 What does this tell us? Bull markets are growing longer, while bear markets have remained consistently brutal. The current cycle has already surpassed the average bull run length of 885 days (cycles #2–#4) and is quickly approaching the 957-day average of the two most recent cycles (#3 and #4). That makes this the second-longest bull market in Bitcoin’s history. ⏳ 1:1 Fibonacci Time Extension — The Hidden Timing Signal In time-based Fibonacci analysis, the 1.0 (1:1) extension means one simple thing: this cycle has now lasted the same amount of time as previous cycles — a perfect time symmetry. Here’s how I measured it: Average bull market length #2–#4(2011–2021): 885 days Average bull market length #3–#4(2015–2021): 957 days Today’s date: May 27, 2025 = Day 917 ✅ Result: We are well inside the time window where Bitcoin historically tops out. You don’t need to be a fortune teller to see that this is a zone of caution. Markets peak on euphoria, not logic and this timing confluence is a red flag worth watching. 🗓️ "Sell in May and Go Away" — Not Just a Meme One of the oldest market adages is showing its teeth again. Risk assets — including Bitcoin — tend to underperform in the summer months. Why? Lower liquidity Institutional rebalancing Exhaustion from prior run-ups Vacations and reduced trading volumes And here we are: Bitcoin is hovering near ATH It's been in an uptrend for 917 days We just entered the time-extension top zone Liquidity is thinning across the board You don’t need to panic. But you do need to think like a professional: secure profits, reduce exposure, and wait for structure. 😬 FOMO Is a Portfolio Killer This is where most traders make their worst decisions. FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) isn’t just a meme — it’s the reason so many people buy tops and sell bottoms. Before entering any trade right now, ask yourself: Where were you at $20K? Did you have a plan? Or are you reacting to headlines? 📌 Clear mind > urgent clicks 📌 Patience > chasing green candles 📌 Strategy > emotion Let the herd FOMO in. You protect your capital. Will This Bear Market Be Different? Every past cycle saw BTC retrace between 77%–94%. That was then. But this time feels… different. Here’s why: Institutions are here — ETF flows, sovereign wealth funds, and major asset managers Regulation is clearer — and risk capital feels safer deploying in crypto Supply is tighter — much of BTC is now held off exchanges and in cold storage While a massive crash like -80% is less likely, that doesn’t mean a correction isn’t coming. Even a 30%–40% drop from here would wreak havoc on overleveraged traders. And that brings us to… 🚨 Altseason? Or Alt-bloodbath? Here’s the hard truth: If BTC corrects, altcoins will crash — not rally. Most altcoins have already seen strong rallies from their cycle lows. But if BTC drops 30%, many alts could tumble 50–80%. Altseason only happens when BTC cools off and ranges — not when it dumps. Don’t get caught holding the bag. Be tactical. Be disciplined. So Where’s the Next Big Level? You may be wondering: “If this is the top… where do we fall to?” Let’s just say there’s a very important Fibonacci confluence aligning with several other key indicators. I’ll reveal it in my next analysis, so stay tuned. 🧭 What Should You Do Right Now? (Not Financial Advice) ✅ Up big? — Take some profits ✅ On the sidelines? — Wait for real setups ✅ Emotional? — Unplug, reassess ✅ Are you new to Trading? — study, learn (how to day trade) and prepare for the next cycle The best trades come to the calm, not the impulsive. 💡 Final Words of Wisdom Bitcoin rewards discipline. It punishes emotion. Right now is not about catching the last 10% of upside — it’s about: Watching structure for potential trend change Measuring risk Avoiding overexposure Protecting what you’ve earned 📌 The edge isn’t in indicators. It’s in mindset. Stay prepared, stay sharp because in this market… 🔔 Remember: The market will always be there. Your capital won’t — unless you protect it. The next big opportunity doesn’t go to the loudest. It goes to the most ready. _________________________________ Thanks for reading and following along! 🙏 Now the big question remains: Is a bear market just lurking around the corner? What are your thoughts? Let me know in the comments. I’d love to hear your perspective. _________________________________ If you found this helpful, leave a like and comment below! Got requests for the next technical analysis? Let me know.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by SiDec
13
Bitcoin New ATH - Where now?After Bitcoin makes new all time highs, the next steps are very important. Where price goes now can be tricky to predict as there is the rare factor of price. One of the only ways to predict where BTC may find resistance during price discovery is to use Fibonacci levels, using Fib extensions the first target for me would be between $117,500-$120,000. This area would be between the fib extension and the big even level, RSI would also be overbought on the daily time frame. For the bearish scenario I think it's a much simpler play from a TA standpoint, lose the trend channel and get back under the old ATH level and I think we see a pullback towards $97,000. After such an extreme rally over the last 2 months with little to no rest a 10% correction would not be out of the ordinary despite such bullish ETF inflows. I have mapped a second target area should $97,000 fail, a SFP of the range can lead to a retest of the midpoint, this correction path would be much more severe with a more than 15% move lower. To sum it all up Bitcoin has been on a great run in the last 2 months and has reached most traders common target of making a new ATH. Now there must be a new objective... Continue the move into price discovery or a corrective move? Price discovery has no previous selling history and so Fib levels along with big even levels are used to predict resistance levels. Corrective move would mean dropping out of the bullish trend channel and falling into a place of support, in my mind that would be ~$97,000 or failing that ~$91,000 (range midpoint).
by ProR35