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Bitcoinanalysis

🗺️Bitcoin Roadmap🗺️⏰(4-hour time frame)⏰📈Today I want to show you all the Resistance/Support lines and areas that we should consider for Bitcoin analysis and trading . 💡Bitcoin with the announcement of the spot Bitcoin ETF application file by the Swiss company Pando is 3 weeks after this company's request by the SEC , and the listing of ARK 21Shares spot ETF in DTCC broker started to rise from the 🟢 Support zone($40,900_$40,200) 🟢 to the 🔴 Resistance zone($43,500_$42,800) 🔴. 💡Bitcoin is currently in a sensitive area , so that it seems to have succeeded in breaking the 🔴 Resistance zone($43,500_$42,800) 🔴. On the other hand, there are Resistance lines and 🟡 Price Reversal Zones (PRZs) 🟡above the current price of Bitcoin. 🧐So now that Bitcoin is in a sensitive area, we should use other technical analysis tools such as Elliott Wave Theory . 🌊According to the theory of Elliott waves , Bitcoin seems to have succeeded in completing the correction structure of Double Three Correction(WXY) . In such a way that the main wave W and Y have a Zigzag(ABC/5-3-5) correction structure, so it can be said that the correction structure is Double Zigzag Correction(WXY) , which is a special type of Double Three Correction. 💡Another thing to keep in mind is that I expect the DXY index to go up and have a negative effect on Bitcoin due to the correlation(-0.60) between Bitcoin and the DXY index . On the other hand, it is very likely that in the coming week, the Gold chart will also have a downward trend (Gold has a Correlation of 0.51 with Bitcoin at the moment), so Gold can also have a negative effect on Bitcoin. 💡Also, we can see Strong Regular Divergence(RD-) between two Consecutive Peaks . 🔔As a result, I expect Bitcoin to Fall to at least the Support line(1) in the coming days 🚦Since Volume Trading is usually low on Saturdays and Sundays , perhaps the decline of Bitcoin will be a little delayed . 📚Regarding the possibility that the spot Bitcoin ETF will be approved around January 10 , I can say that I think the market is currently full of news about this issue and we saw its effect on the chart weeks ago, so I think Bitcoin can still be corrected until it really is. Let confirmation spot Bitcoin ETF come so we can see another exciting movement in the crypto market. ❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️: If BTC can touch $44,800, Bullish Scenario will be active == Next 🎯Target🎯 ==🟡 Price Reversal Zones (PRZ(1)) 🟡. ❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️: An important point you should always remember is capital management and lack of greed. Bitcoin Analyze ( BTCUSDT ), 4-hour time frame ⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
59
Bitcoin → Broke Weekly Resistance! On to $46,000!? Let's Answer.Bitcoin has broken Weekly Resistance at $38,000 and raced to the top of the bull channel around $42,500. Now that the move seems to have played out, what is the next trade? How do we trade this? 🤔 If you're not already in a long, Do Not Enter the market. We're too close to the bull channel resistance, we haven't tested the previous Weekly Resistance as Support, RSI is over 76.00 and far above the Moving Average. We should remain bullish given the macro trend and that the top of the 2021 Trading Range at $46,000 is at the proposed Measured Move target. Best to wait for a pullback and find support again, likely around $40,000 at Bull Channel support. A bull signal bar and confirmation candle will give us the necessary probability to enter a 1:2 Risk/Reward Ratio Long. 💡 Trade Idea 💡 Long Entry: $40,700 🟥 Stop Loss: $38,500 ✅ Take Profit: $45,100 ⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2 🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑 1. Breakout from Previous High Support! 2. Bull Channel, Bias to Long. 3. Weekly Resistance Broken! Possible Measured Move Up. 4. $46,000 Measured Move Lines Up With Lifetime Resistance. 5. RSI over 76.00, Bias to Short for the short-term. ⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️ Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk! Like 👍 and comment if you found this analysis useful!
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TraderEngineering
2
🗺️Bitcoin Roadmap🗺️(🥳Happy New Year 2024🥳)🥳 Congratulate to everyone on the year 2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣4️⃣. 🙏I hope the new year is full of good things for you , your family , and your friends . 💸My wish for you is health first , success in business and personal life in the next step, and a pocket/wallet full of dollars . 🚀Bitcoin made good growth at the start of the New year(2024) , and one of the main reasons for its growth is the possibility of approving the Bitcoin ETF on Tuesday and Wednesday . (It reminds me of the " Buy the rumor, Sell the news " correction). 🏃‍♂️Bitcoin is currently moving near the 🔴 Heavy Resistance Zone($52,100-$45,800) 🔴 and the Resistance line . 🌊Regarding Elliott wave theory , Bitcoin seems to complete microwave 3 of the main wave 5 . 🔔I expect Bitcoin to drop to the 🟢Support zone($44,800-$44,170)🟢 after the completion of microwave 3 of the main wave 5 and then start to rise again to the end of main wave 5 (zone/$48,200-$46,620) . 🎉 In the end, I hope you have a Nice Holiday. ❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️: An important point you should always remember is capital management and lack of greed. Bitcoin Analyze ( BTCUSDT ), 4-hour time frame ⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
29
Bitcoin Analysis✈️(Three Rising Valleys Pattern)✈️✅Bitcoin reacted well to 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡, as I had expected in the previous post . 🔨Currently, Bitcoin has managed to break the Resistance lines and is completing a pullback to these lines. 🏃‍♂️Also, Bitcoin seems to be moving in an ascending channel , and inside this ascending channel , the Three Rising Valleys Pattern can be seen well. 🔔I expect Bitcoin to start rising from the bottom of the ascending channel and continue to rise at least until the upper resistance line or the upper line of the ascending channel . ❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️: An important point you should always remember is capital management and lack of greed. Bitcoin Analyze ( BTCUSDT ), 1-hour time frame ⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
15
Bitcoin is Ready to Go 🚀UP🚀Again🚀Bitcoin started to rise near the 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡. 🌊In terms of Elliott waves , a Zigzag(ABC/5-3-5) Correction in the 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡 appears to have been completed . 💡Also, we can see Regular Divergence(RD+) between two Consecutive Valleys . 🔔I expect Bitcoin to go UP to at least the 🎯 First Target 🎯 I marked on the chart after breaking the Resistance lines . ❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️: If Bitcoin can break the 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡, the scenario will change. ❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️: An important point you should always remember is capital management and lack of greed. Bitcoin Analyze ( BTCUSDT ), 1-hour time frame ⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
38
Bitcoin Analysis(🦀Bearish Deep Crab Harmonic Pattern🦀)🏃‍♂️Bitcoin is moving in the 🔴 Resistance zone($43,500_$42,800) 🔴 and near the Resistance line and inside the Ascending Channel . 🌊According to the theory of Elliott waves , Bitcoin seems to be completing a Zigzag(ABC/5-3-5) correction in the ascending channel so that wave A has an Expanding Leading Diagonal . 💡Also, Bitcoin has managed to form a 🦀 Bearish Deep Crab Harmonic Pattern 🦀. 🔔I expect Bitcoin to start falling after breaking the lower line of the ascending channel . ❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️: If Bitcoin breaks the Resistance line, the scenario will change. ❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️: An important point you should always remember is capital management and lack of greed. Bitcoin Analyze ( BTCUSDT ), 15-minute time frame ⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
32
Bitcoin Idea - UpdateHi traders.. Continuation of the previous analysis COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT ⚠️ Disclaimer: The viewpoints shared represent my individual outlook on the market, based on publicly accessible information and historical data. While a portion of these opinions is influenced by my actual trades, others are not. It's important to note that I am not a financial advisor, and I do not assume any responsibility for the decisions you make in your trading activities. ✅ Feel free to share your inquiries or suggestions in the comments. I am more than willing to assess and analyze any cryptocurrency, forex currency pair, or stock index that piques your interest, so, Please don't hesitate to ask or mention the specific currency chart you'd like me to review.
Long
by Arash-RK
Bitcoin Bulls Charge Ahead: Whales Bet Big as 50K Looms—A Quick Analysis for a Memorable Christmas Rally In the fast-paced world of cryptocurrency, breaking news often arrives quicker than the giant whales themselves. As the year draws to a close, all eyes are on Bitcoin's soaring trajectory, with a tantalizing 50K milestone seemingly within reach. A swift analysis, guided by professional trader insights, unveils a compelling narrative for a Christmas rally that could make this the most memorable festive season of the new decade. Recent Bitcoin options data has sent shockwaves through the market, revealing that whales—the significant players with deep pockets—are placing hefty bets on a 50K BTC surge. The strategic positioning of these market behemoths has set the stage for a potential bull run that could materialize by the 26th to 27th of December, creating a buzz of excitement and anticipation. Professional traders , armed with their arsenal of technical analysis, are pointing to key indicators that suggest a substantial upward move for Bitcoin. The market sentiment is buoyed by the prospect of institutional investors and whales influencing the price action, providing a robust foundation for the projected surge. The options market , as detailed in a recent report by CoinTelegraph, acts as a barometer for these whale-sized bets. The strategic use of call options—financial instruments that give holders the right to buy an asset at a predetermined price—indicates a bullish outlook among these influential market players. This calculated move, coupled with the historical significance of the 50K threshold, adds weight to the analysis. Bitcoin enthusiasts and investors alike are eagerly anticipating what could be a historic Christmas for the cryptocurrency market. If the projections hold true, witnessing Bitcoin reach the 50K mark would not only mark a milestone for the leading digital asset but also create lasting memories for enthusiasts, traders, and investors as they toast to the end of the year and the beginning of a new era in the crypto space. In conclusion, the confluence of strategic whale maneuvers, professional trader analyses, and the impending holiday season paints a compelling picture of a Bitcoin rally to 50K by the 26th to 27th of December. As the crypto community braces for a potentially historic moment, the news of this impending surge may have arrived quicker than the whales themselves, setting the stage for a Christmas celebration that will be etched into the annals of cryptocurrency history.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by wikitrades
1
Bitcoin Analysis (↗️Long↗️/↘️Short↘️Position)🏃‍♂️After failing to break the Support line , Bitcoin started to rise and is currently moving in the 🟢 Support zone($42,780-$42,280) 🟢. 🌊In terms of Elliott waves , Bitcoin seems to be completing microwave 4 . 🌊The structure of microwave 4 is Double Three Correction(WXY) . 🔔I expect Bitcoin to rise to the upper areas of the 🔴 Resistance zone($43,720_$43,340) 🔴 and then start to decline again . 🧐 What was the reason for the growth of Bitcoin in the last 24 hours❗️❓ 🔸 The first news of the receipt of the spot Bitcoin ETF application file by the Swiss company Pando is 3 weeks after this company's request by the SEC, which made many people hope for the approval of Bitcoin ETFs. 🔸But receiving the file does not mean approval and it is part of the standard process of reviewing ETFs by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 🔸The second positive news is the listing of ARK 21Shares spot ETF in DTCC broker, which has caused this positive news to affect Bitcoin. ❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️: The scenario will change if Bitcoin can close a candle in the 4-hour time frame above the Master Candle. ❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️: An important point you should always remember is capital management and lack of greed. Bitcoin Analyze ( BTCUSDT ), 15-minute time frame ⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
by pejman_zwin
30
🚨Bitcoin is Ready to Fill CME Gap🚨✅As I expected, Bitcoin touched the 🔴 Resistance zone($43,180-$42,820) 🔴 . 🌊According to Elliott's wave theory , Bitcoin is completing a corrective Zigzag(ABC/5-3-5) pattern. 🔔I expect Bitcoin to decrease to at least the Support line after completing the Zigzag correction structure, and if the support line breaks, we can expect 🔵 CME Gap($40,325-$39,290) 🔵 to fill. ❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️: If BTC can break the $44,720 , the Scenario will change. ❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️: An important point you should always remember is capital management and lack of greed. Bitcoin Analyze ( BTCUSDT ), 15-minute time frame ⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
84
🚨The End of the Bitcoin Rally(💡Signs💡)🚨👋Hi, everyone. I hope you had a great weekend. 🧐Today, I decided to answer the question of whether Bitcoin has reached the end of the Bullish Rally or not ❗️❓ ⏰To answer the above question, it is better to look at the Bitcoin chart in the higher time frames, such as daily, 2-day, or weekly. 🌐Bitcoin started to increase after the confirmation of ETFs , but it seems that the result of the news should NOT help Bitcoin anymore, because the reality is that no money has entered the market through companies and we have to wait for the approval of ETFs and then their implementation phase. So it seems that the cryptocurrency market has increased well so far with this news, although when the entry of ETFs is done , we can see more growth of Bitcoin ( According to the news, the first ETF will be approved on January 8-10 ). 💡If we look at the 2-day chart of Bitcoin, we will realize that Bitcoin has been moving in an Ascending channel for more than a year . 💡Another interesting point is that the Pitchfork lines played the role of Support and Resistance very well on the Bitcoin chart so that every time a line breaks upwards, Bitcoin moves up to the upper bar. 🏃‍♂️Bitcoin is moving near the upper line of the Ascending Channel , one of the Pitchfork lines(0.618) , and the 🔴Resistance zone($51,500_$45,340)🔴 . 🌊In terms of Elliott wave theory , Bitcoin seems to have completed the second impulse wave 5 [ although I expected Bitcoin to touch the 🔴Resistance zone($51,500_$45,340)🔴] . 💡Also, we can see Regular Divergence(RD-) between two Consecutive Peaks. 💡If Bitcoin touches the price range of $34,000-$34,300 , a large amount of LONG positions are exposed to the risk of liquidation , which is unfortunately attractive for exchanges . 💡One thing that can be said about Volume Trading is that, in general, the Volume Trading in the second five impulse waves is much less than the first five impulses == Not a good sign for the continuation of the upward trend of Bitcoin. 💡Another sign that can confirm the decline of Bitcoin is the presence of 🔵 6 CME Gaps 🔵; according to my research, Bitcoin has never created more than 5-6 CME Gaps in one direction, and in the past, Bitcoin has either been in an upward trend or moved down and filled these CME Gaps. 💡In addition, Bitcoin's Dominance(BTC.D%) has approached the 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡, which will indicate the decrease of Bitcoin's dominance in the Cryptocurrency market in the future.👇 🔔I expect that Bitcoin will NOT be able to go above $44,700 in the next days and will fall to the 🟢 Support zone($39,000-$37,000) 🟢 and fill the 🔵 first CME Gap($40,325-$39,290) 🔵 and then spend some time above the support zone. The news of the approval of the fund, if it happens in January, can give temporary growth to Bitcoin, but it seems that the correction will continue at least until the lower line of the ascending channel and the 🔵 Second CME Gap($34,295-$34,160) 🔵. ❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️: I will try to update you in the lower time frame every day. ❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️: An important point you should always remember is capital management and lack of greed. Bitcoin Analyze ( BTCUSDT ), 2-Days time frame ⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
18
🗺️Bitcoin Roadmap🗺️👋Hi, everyone; I hope you all have a positive Portfolio these days (be happy). ✅Bitcoin managed to break the 🔴 Resistance zone($38,650-$37,000) 🔴 [ In previous posts, my resistance zone was 🟡Price Reversal Zone(PRZ)🟡 ] and Important Resistance line during the weekend. However, this zone was not expected to break on Saturdays and Sundays when trading volume was generally low . 🏃‍♂️Bitcoin is moving on Important Resistance lines , Monthly Resistance (3) . It is interesting to know that all previous stations were on monthly pivots in the last two to three days. 🌊According to Elliott's wave theory , Bitcoin is on its way to completing the main wave 5 . 🌊If we want to look more closely at the waves, Bitcoin is currently completing microwave 3 of the main wave 5 . 🌊 Microwave 4 of microwave 3 of main wave 5 can end on one of the 23.6%($42,730) and 38.2%($41,676) Fibonacci lines. 💡 On-chain data shows that many Bitcoins have been purchased in the range of $45,000 and that medium-term Bitcoin holders are at a loss until now. If the price reaches this area, it is possible that a large number of holders will want to sell their Bitcoins at Breakeven ! 🔔I expect Bitcoin to make the first attack on the 🔴 Heavy Resistance zone($52,130-$45,840) 🔴 to complete microwave 3 of the main wave 5 . It is also likely that the first 🔵 CME Gap($40,325-$39,290) 🔵 will be filled after completing the main wave 5 . 📚There are at least 🔵6 CME Gaps🔵 that Bitcoin has not yet filled; generally, over 98% of these gaps have been filled in Bitcoin. 📚 Elliott waves include a series of Rules and Guidelines that you can analyze and predict the road map of the price. In general, in the theory of Elliott waves, you are faced with several scenarios that you should find the correct scenario with the help of other technical analysis tools and fundamental analysis and try to identify the correct scenario from the false scenario. ❤️In the end, here is some advice for you as a little brother: 🔸 TradingView website has provided us with a suitable space to transfer our analysis, so it is better to use it and not waste our time on destruction or ugly comments. 🔸If you have any comments, please share them with respect . 🔸 No analysis is 100% , so if you use analysis as an investment, it is better to follow capital management and take responsibility for it yourself. 🔸Please don't look at the words of Celebrities about the price of Bitcoin and other Altcoins as an investment ; check their past, and the truth will be clear(These days they are hot). 🔸I hope we can use TradingView to increase our capital and knowledge . ❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️: An important point you should always remember is capital management and lack of greed. Bitcoin Analyze ( BTCUSDT ), 4-hour time frame ⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
60
Bitcoin hits major Trendline ResistanceBitcoin has hit a major trendline resistance. The zone near 44200 will be very difficult zone for Bitcoin to cross. 39679 will be a good support and is proving so since three week. If 39679 is broken the next major support for Bitcoin will be near 35892. Major support zone for Bitcoin is between 30654 and 32232. The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
by Happy_Candles_Investment
4
Comprehensive Analysis of $BTCUSD Price Movements, Halving ImpacIntroduction: This analysis explores critical factors influencing Bitcoin's price movements, including technical analysis, halving effects, trading setups, and recent market news. Technical Analysis - BTC/USDT Chart: Analyzing the BTC/USDT chart, a retracement to $34,000 is expected, forming a potential bull trap. Subsequent downward momentum is foreseen, reaching $29,000-$30,000, attracting smart money. Further projections include breaking resistances at $50,000, a brief pullback to $44,000 (CME gap zone), followed by a surge to $74,000. A correction to $55,000 ensues, paving the way for continued bullish trends to $81,000-$83,000. A substantial correction is anticipated thereafter. Halving Information: The impending Bitcoin halving introduces challenges before the event, emphasizing the need for strategic decision-making, especially in the context of emerging ETF developments. Trading Setups and Corrections: Current market dynamics reveal a correction phase nearing completion. Traders should monitor for potential entry points as this phase concludes, setting the stage for the next upward trajectory. Financial News Impact: Recent financial news highlights the launch of Salvadoran Bitcoin volcano bonds in Q1 2024 post-regulatory approval. This development could positively influence market sentiment, impacting Bitcoin's price dynamics. Ethereum's 2024 Prospects: JPMorgan forecasts Ethereum's outperformance over Bitcoin in 2024, adding complexity to the cryptocurrency landscape and emphasizing the importance of diversification. Conclusion: In conclusion, the analysis suggests a nuanced journey for Bitcoin, marked by retracements, bullish phases, and corrections. The impending halving, evolving trading setups, and external factors such as financial news and Ethereum's performance contribute to the dynamic nature of the cryptocurrency market. Traders are advised to exercise caution, stay informed, and adapt strategies to navigate the inherent volatility in the crypto space.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by wikitrades
🗺️Bitcoin Roadmap🗺️(15-minute time frame)🏃‍♂️Bitcoin is moving near the 🔵 CME Gap($40,325-$39,290) 🔵 and Support line . 🌊In terms of Elliott wave theory , Bitcoin seems to have completed its 5-wave downtrend near the support line. 💡Also, we can see Regular Divergence(RD+) between two Consecutive Valleys . 🔔I expect Bitcoin to Go UP at least until the end of wave 4 and at the next target of the 🔴 Resistance zone($43,180-$42,820) 🔴. ❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️: An important point you should always remember is capital management and lack of greed. Bitcoin Analyze ( BTCUSDT ), 15-minute time frame ⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
16
Bitcoin Lifetime Analysis → Reverse to $20,000 Before New Highs?Bitcoin broke out of it's trading range between $25,000 and $32,000 and touched $44,800! Does this mean we're going to new all-time highs? I'm skeptical for a parade of reasons, all of which are based on historical and current data points. Let's dig in! How do we trade this? 🤔 Recent Data Since the trend reversal in January 2023 we've had three pushes to the upside, which is a textbook leg count before the trend converts into a trading range. The RSI has also been over 70.00 since October 2023 and the Daily candles leading up to December 4th 2023 could be the exhaustion bars at the end of the bull trend. This is enough evidence to warrant a pull back, likely to the top of the trading range around $32,000. Historical Data When are we going to see new all-time highs? Refer to the Monthly chart above. We can see that prior to hitting 3 of the 4 new all-time high events, Bitcoin will make contact with Lifetime Support. The one exception was the 2013 all-time high. Another data point is the Bitcoin halving has occurred prior to *every* new all-time high. There is one more clue in the Weekly chart to observe! Look at the 2019 high, looks very similar to where we are now: Double-bottom reversal before touching Lifetime Support on Feb 2019, three pushes to the upside hitting the 2019 high, RSI over 70.00, price failed to break the 2019 high then capitulated to Lifetime Support, Bitcoin Halving happened shortly after, THEN went to new all-time highs. I believe this is the situation we're in right now. If we don't make contact with Lifetime Support, I believe we need to at least come back down into the trading range before hitting new all-time highs. We also have the Bitcoin halving happening in the April 2024 area, all seems conveniently timed based on what we've discussed here! Trade Options There are many ways to trade this: 1. Fading your position down to lifetime support: Longing support areas as the price falls, starting with smaller positions and increasing your entry at every level. 2. Waiting for a bounce at lifetime support or in the trading range: Playing the reversal, which includes not entering until you see a reversal signal then you enter with a larger position. 3. Scalp your positions with higher probability of profit, but less profit and more risk in your Risk/Reward Ratio. To strike a balance between Risk, Reward, and Probability, I'll stick with a standard Reversal Entry, which means we wait for a reversal confirmation. Based on this analysis, we should look to enter after a Lifetime Support or Trading Range bounce around $25,000. Enter in this price area, place a protective stop below the last bear run low at $15,000. Take profit areas are based on previous resistance and the projected lifetime resistance range of $120,000 and $130,000. The first take profit is at the price we just hit around $45,000, the next take profit should be just before the current all-time high around $65,000, the final take profit should be below the projected new all-time high somewhere in the $120,000 and $130,000 area, around $105,000. You could add more take profit areas between $65,000 and $105,000 based on lower timeframe analysis, but we don't have that data yet. More updates will be provided as the months go by. Let me know your thoughts! 💡 Trade Idea 💡 Long Entry: $30,000 🟥 Stop Loss: $15,000 ✅ Take Profit #1: $45,000 ✅ Take Profit #2: $65,000 ✅ Take Profit #2: $105,000 ⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:5 🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑 1. Bullish since January 2023. This is not *THE* bull run. 2. Bull Breakout of $25,000 to $32,000 Trading Range, but RSI overbought. 3. Every New All-Time high was Preceded by Touching Lifetime Support. 4. Bitcoin has not Touched Lifetime Support. Pullback to $20,000 Area. 5. RSI is above 70.00, Supports Pullback. ⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️ Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk! Like 👍 and comment if you found this analysis useful!
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TraderEngineering
Bitcoin Supercycle theory - bottom inBull theory – Bottom is already in for Bitcoin INDEX:BTCUSD There are severeal technical indicators and measurements that suggest it could be. Firstly, the 50-week MA already crossed the 100-week MA. Each time this occured, the bottom was already in, both times as the weekly RSI dipped into oversold conditions. The price behavior has also been similar to the 2014 bear market for months with a drawdown of -53% below the 50-100WMA. (-But there is more time for that special fractal in another post.) Secondly, this current level happens to be a 0.786 Fibonacci Retracement of our entire run up from Covid-19 to the November top in addition as it is the support oft he previous all time high(2017). Furthermore sitting right now on the weekly 300MA. The Fear and Greed Index has only registered prolonged periods in Extreme Fear(below 10) as we have witnessed at the 2018 capitulation bottom and the 2020 Covid-19 selloff. Therefore the capitulation happened in June, with Luna (+UST), the depegging of USDT, 3AC, blockfi, Celsius… which are all max fear events. But everyone is now expecting 13-15k thinking we are in the middle of a bear market rally. While the GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust value sitting already at chart comparable 11k. From technical analysis we couldn’t have bottomed more. Even on chain indicators signal the bottom is near. NUPL, RHODL Ratio, Puell Multipli, Entity adjusted Dormancy-Flow, MVRV-Z Score, 2Year MA Multiplier, CBBI-Bull Run Index. We have already seen arguably the most extreme network capitulation in Bitcoin‘s history, with now also a Hash Ribbons blue ball on the daily timeframe. Bitcoin is trading at a fair value. I am still hoping for an expanding flat 3-3-5 elliot wave correction, a double three WXY pattern, or even a simple overshooting B of an ABC. But if that 17,6k gets structural taken out we are not talking about recession but deflationary depression and just the start of a longer bear market. Fortunately the global narrative is shifting. People are now saying we are going into a deep recession. CNBC‘s Cramer saying to avoid all speculative investments like crypto, while the worst is priced in already. It starts to look like the main worry is becoming recession with deflation and not inflation now. That idea gets strengthened by US-CPI showing a second month of decline. Based on the 5-year break-even inflation rate, a leading indicator, it can already be said with certainty that we have seen the short-term peak in inflation. And that inflation is expected to recover further through 2023. Keep in mind every time inflation tops - Stock market rallies! Once the consumer price index print comes in significantly lower (September~7,9% but October ~7%) the stage will be set for a Powell flip flop. FED pivots systematically lead to strong rallies. So November FOMC potentially for a midterm or year-end Christmas rally. This means that the Fed will step back on better CPI-data and inflation will eventually start running again in 2023. Nobody does see a fruitful future for investments right now. To trick the retail there is no need for a positive narrative so everyone keeps being bearish. Only technical analysis matters. Afterwards we will see what the news catalyst was. Btc may range more than equities first, then rotation into more risk happens later. Hence Bitcoin Dominance will rise and Altcoins will pump after Bitcoin. But Btc is not yet in a multi-year bear market within its 4 year cycle because BTC.D would be at that point much higher while we are seeing new 4 year lows. Something is different. As a trader you have to adapt the possibilities. Invalidation of that bull scenario if we set a new low in Bitcoin. Then there will be much bigger problems in the market. So all eyes on the DXY and the behavior oft he FED, because Btc is at this time just the risk-taking follower of Nasdaq and SPX. Special greetings to Blockchain Backer, following him for almost a year.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by derJessie
3
BTCUSD (Bitcoin vs United States Dollars USD) Shorting Chance Technical Analysis: There are several signaling settings that indicate a shorting bias. These include: 1. Bearish Divergence of Price with MACD: Bearish divergence occurs when the price of an asset forms higher highs while the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator forms lower highs. This pattern indicates a potential reversal in the prevailing trend and signifies a bearish bias in the market. 2. Abundant Fibonacci Confluence Levels and Pivot Points between Bullish and Bearish Cycles: This refers to the occurrence of multiple Fibonacci retracement and extension levels aligning with key pivot points in the price action. These confluences indicate areas of potential resistance, strengthening the bearish bias. 3. Candle Triangle Pattern with a Significant False Break: This pattern occurs when the price forms a series of lower highs and higher lows, creating a triangle shape. A significant false break happens when the price briefly breaks out of the triangle pattern but quickly reverses back within it. This false break suggests a potential reversal and supports a shorting bias.
Short
by BitonGroup
2
The Bitcoin CorridorWhat if there were two straight lines between which all of Bitcoin's price action could be contained? If such lines exist, they could provide tremendous insight into the future price of Bitcoin. As it turns out, the Bitcoin power law corridor theory hypothesizes that such lines may exist. However, in order to see these lines within a price chart, one must dramatically change one's frame of reference. In this post, I will attempt to change your frame of reference and transform the chart of Bitcoin so that its entire price history is contained between two straight lines. First, here's a chart that shows the entire price history of INDEX:BTCUSD Next, I will log scale the chart. Many users on TradingView know how to log scale their charts, but if you do not, here's a post on how to do it . As shown in the chart below, after I log-scaled the chart, I then adjusted the y-axis such that each value on display is a power of 10. Now, here's the part where you have to change your frame of reference. Up until now, you have only seen charts on TradingView with a linear x-axis (time). However, in some cases, it is appropriate to plot time using a logarithmic scale. This is because a logarithmic scale compresses the time dimension, making it easier to see trends over very long periods of time. Therefore, one can log-scale the time axis of one's charts to observe the movement of Bitcoin's price over long periods of time. When this is done, Bitcoin's price appears to be contained between two straight lines. Bitcoin is bound by these two lines as it oscillates with each halving cycle. As the effects of each halving cycle diminish over time, Bitcoin's price converges towards a singularity. Why does Bitcoin's price action behave in this manner? The answer is that Bitcoin's price is an oscillatory logistic growth function . Logistic growth functions approach some finite horizontal asymptote over time. However, when both the horizontal (x-axis) and vertical (y-axis) are logarithmically scaled, the logistic function transforms into a straight line. To read more about the significance of Bitcoin as a logistic growth function, including how it informs my cryptocurrency investment strategy, you can check out my post below. There are some criticisms of the power law corridor theory, including that Bitcoin's price data does not sufficiently meet certain assumptions about regression that must be true in order for the theory to also be true. These criticisms are outlined in this article . Additionally, the theory breaks down in the event that the U.S. dollar enters into hyperinflation. In this event, the price of Bitcoin will begin to move up hyperbolically rather than linearly, even on a logarithmic scale. Some argue that rather than moving within a power law corridor, Bitcoin's price moves according to a hyperbolic growth model. ( Watch an animation of this model here ). Nonetheless, the power law corridor theory is quite insightful for Bitcoin's current price action. The chart above shows the extreme magnitude of hyperinflation in Germany's Weimar Republic. For Bitcoin to reach its predicted value under the hyperbolic growth model, the U.S. dollar would need to experience a similar magnitude of hyperinflation during its end stage. The final thought I want to share may be a bit confusing, but I encourage you to think outside of your usual frame of reference. Here's a question to get you started: Have you ever noticed that when Bitcoin is plotted as a ratio to any other asset, the chart looks exactly like the price of Bitcoin? The chart above shows (1) the price action of Bitcoin on the left relative to the U.S. dollar, and (2) shows the price action of Bitcoin relative to the price action of the S&P 500 on the right. Despite being used as a ratio to the S&P 500 in one chart but not the other, both charts still look virtually identical. With the exception of several other cryptocurrencies, no matter what asset you choose, plotting the entire price history of Bitcoin as a ratio to the asset reveals a logistic growth function. This finding is actually quite significant. It implies that Bitcoin is uniquely suited to become the new standard for measuring value. As an asset with increasingly constant scarcity, Bitcoin is able to achieve what no other financial instrument in history has ever been able to achieve: a constant unit by which the value of all other assets can be measured. You may not realize it, but virtually all of the charts on TradingView are ratio charts. In most cases, the unit of value measurement is the U.S. dollar. However, since the value of the U.S. dollar changes over time, dependent on the supply of dollars set by the Federal Reserve, the dollar's ability to be a constant unit for measuring the value of other assets is thus significantly limited. The chart above shows the quarterly rate of change of the 2-year Treasury yield. This yield represents the risk-free rate over a two-year period, which reflects the cost of a U.S. dollar over that period. The volatility of the yield in recent quarters highlights the fact that the value of a U.S. dollar has become unstable. This instability underscores the problem inherent in using the U.S. dollar (or any fiat currency) as a measure of value for other assets. If Bitcoin indeed becomes an asset by which the value of all other assets is compared, then Bitcoin's volatility will go to zero because its value will be measured relative to itself. Bitcoin is only volatile right now because its value is being measured in U.S. dollars. Since the value of the U.S. dollar can change widely over time as the central bank expands and contracts the money supply, this volatility in Bitcoin's price, in large part, actually reflects the volatility in the value of dollars. In most cases, when an asset becomes the standard for measuring value, is it also considered the risk-free asset . If Bitcoin becomes the risk-free asset, then this fact may upend what Modern Portfolio Theory may consider an optimally efficient, risk-adjusted portfolio. If Bitcoin replaces the risk-free asset, its beta will become equivalent to zero. Suddenly, other cryptocurrencies that outperform Bitcoin, like Ether, may become assets that all efficient risk-adjusted portfolios must contain. This is where my current research ends: The intersection of Bitcoin's mathematical tendency to replace the risk-free asset and how this could drastically impact the findings of Modern Portfolio Theory and the role played by traditional financial instruments. It is perhaps no wonder then that traditional financial firms are scrambling to create a spot Bitcoin ETF. Bitcoin represents the next step in the evolution of financial markets. Bitcoin has created the first truly trustless monetary system by solving the Byzantine Generals' Problem . This problem of trust has plagued financial markets since the advent of credit, and could only previously be temporarily mitigated by increased money creation. However, this fiat approach always ultimately results in hyperinflation and the collapse of the monetary system. --- Special thank you to @SquishTrade for his editorial assistance. Also, a special tribute to Dr. Harry Markowitz , the father of Modern Portfolio Theory, who sadly passed away as I was researching portfolio theory for this post. Important Disclaimer Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Past results do not guarantee future returns. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile. Never borrow money or use margin to invest in cryptocurrency. Cryptocurrency is not backed or insured by any authority and is therefore a high-risk asset class. You can lose all or some of your money in cryptocurrency. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by SpyMasterTrades
93