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Bitcoinanalysis

BTCUSD (Bitcoin vs United States Dollars USD) Shorting Chance Technical Analysis: There are several signaling settings that indicate a shorting bias. These include: 1. Bearish Divergence of Price with MACD: Bearish divergence occurs when the price of an asset forms higher highs while the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator forms lower highs. This pattern indicates a potential reversal in the prevailing trend and signifies a bearish bias in the market. 2. Abundant Fibonacci Confluence Levels and Pivot Points between Bullish and Bearish Cycles: This refers to the occurrence of multiple Fibonacci retracement and extension levels aligning with key pivot points in the price action. These confluences indicate areas of potential resistance, strengthening the bearish bias. 3. Candle Triangle Pattern with a Significant False Break: This pattern occurs when the price forms a series of lower highs and higher lows, creating a triangle shape. A significant false break happens when the price briefly breaks out of the triangle pattern but quickly reverses back within it. This false break suggests a potential reversal and supports a shorting bias.
Short
by BitonGroup
2
The Bitcoin CorridorWhat if there were two straight lines between which all of Bitcoin's price action could be contained? If such lines exist, they could provide tremendous insight into the future price of Bitcoin. As it turns out, the Bitcoin power law corridor theory hypothesizes that such lines may exist. However, in order to see these lines within a price chart, one must dramatically change one's frame of reference. In this post, I will attempt to change your frame of reference and transform the chart of Bitcoin so that its entire price history is contained between two straight lines. First, here's a chart that shows the entire price history of INDEX:BTCUSD Next, I will log scale the chart. Many users on TradingView know how to log scale their charts, but if you do not, here's a post on how to do it . As shown in the chart below, after I log-scaled the chart, I then adjusted the y-axis such that each value on display is a power of 10. Now, here's the part where you have to change your frame of reference. Up until now, you have only seen charts on TradingView with a linear x-axis (time). However, in some cases, it is appropriate to plot time using a logarithmic scale. This is because a logarithmic scale compresses the time dimension, making it easier to see trends over very long periods of time. Therefore, one can log-scale the time axis of one's charts to observe the movement of Bitcoin's price over long periods of time. When this is done, Bitcoin's price appears to be contained between two straight lines. Bitcoin is bound by these two lines as it oscillates with each halving cycle. As the effects of each halving cycle diminish over time, Bitcoin's price converges towards a singularity. Why does Bitcoin's price action behave in this manner? The answer is that Bitcoin's price is an oscillatory logistic growth function . Logistic growth functions approach some finite horizontal asymptote over time. However, when both the horizontal (x-axis) and vertical (y-axis) are logarithmically scaled, the logistic function transforms into a straight line. To read more about the significance of Bitcoin as a logistic growth function, including how it informs my cryptocurrency investment strategy, you can check out my post below. There are some criticisms of the power law corridor theory, including that Bitcoin's price data does not sufficiently meet certain assumptions about regression that must be true in order for the theory to also be true. These criticisms are outlined in this article . Additionally, the theory breaks down in the event that the U.S. dollar enters into hyperinflation. In this event, the price of Bitcoin will begin to move up hyperbolically rather than linearly, even on a logarithmic scale. Some argue that rather than moving within a power law corridor, Bitcoin's price moves according to a hyperbolic growth model. ( Watch an animation of this model here ). Nonetheless, the power law corridor theory is quite insightful for Bitcoin's current price action. The chart above shows the extreme magnitude of hyperinflation in Germany's Weimar Republic. For Bitcoin to reach its predicted value under the hyperbolic growth model, the U.S. dollar would need to experience a similar magnitude of hyperinflation during its end stage. The final thought I want to share may be a bit confusing, but I encourage you to think outside of your usual frame of reference. Here's a question to get you started: Have you ever noticed that when Bitcoin is plotted as a ratio to any other asset, the chart looks exactly like the price of Bitcoin? The chart above shows (1) the price action of Bitcoin on the left relative to the U.S. dollar, and (2) shows the price action of Bitcoin relative to the price action of the S&P 500 on the right. Despite being used as a ratio to the S&P 500 in one chart but not the other, both charts still look virtually identical. With the exception of several other cryptocurrencies, no matter what asset you choose, plotting the entire price history of Bitcoin as a ratio to the asset reveals a logistic growth function. This finding is actually quite significant. It implies that Bitcoin is uniquely suited to become the new standard for measuring value. As an asset with increasingly constant scarcity, Bitcoin is able to achieve what no other financial instrument in history has ever been able to achieve: a constant unit by which the value of all other assets can be measured. You may not realize it, but virtually all of the charts on TradingView are ratio charts. In most cases, the unit of value measurement is the U.S. dollar. However, since the value of the U.S. dollar changes over time, dependent on the supply of dollars set by the Federal Reserve, the dollar's ability to be a constant unit for measuring the value of other assets is thus significantly limited. The chart above shows the quarterly rate of change of the 2-year Treasury yield. This yield represents the risk-free rate over a two-year period, which reflects the cost of a U.S. dollar over that period. The volatility of the yield in recent quarters highlights the fact that the value of a U.S. dollar has become unstable. This instability underscores the problem inherent in using the U.S. dollar (or any fiat currency) as a measure of value for other assets. If Bitcoin indeed becomes an asset by which the value of all other assets is compared, then Bitcoin's volatility will go to zero because its value will be measured relative to itself. Bitcoin is only volatile right now because its value is being measured in U.S. dollars. Since the value of the U.S. dollar can change widely over time as the central bank expands and contracts the money supply, this volatility in Bitcoin's price, in large part, actually reflects the volatility in the value of dollars. In most cases, when an asset becomes the standard for measuring value, is it also considered the risk-free asset . If Bitcoin becomes the risk-free asset, then this fact may upend what Modern Portfolio Theory may consider an optimally efficient, risk-adjusted portfolio. If Bitcoin replaces the risk-free asset, its beta will become equivalent to zero. Suddenly, other cryptocurrencies that outperform Bitcoin, like Ether, may become assets that all efficient risk-adjusted portfolios must contain. This is where my current research ends: The intersection of Bitcoin's mathematical tendency to replace the risk-free asset and how this could drastically impact the findings of Modern Portfolio Theory and the role played by traditional financial instruments. It is perhaps no wonder then that traditional financial firms are scrambling to create a spot Bitcoin ETF. Bitcoin represents the next step in the evolution of financial markets. Bitcoin has created the first truly trustless monetary system by solving the Byzantine Generals' Problem . This problem of trust has plagued financial markets since the advent of credit, and could only previously be temporarily mitigated by increased money creation. However, this fiat approach always ultimately results in hyperinflation and the collapse of the monetary system. --- Special thank you to @SquishTrade for his editorial assistance. Also, a special tribute to Dr. Harry Markowitz , the father of Modern Portfolio Theory, who sadly passed away as I was researching portfolio theory for this post. Important Disclaimer Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Past results do not guarantee future returns. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile. Never borrow money or use margin to invest in cryptocurrency. Cryptocurrency is not backed or insured by any authority and is therefore a high-risk asset class. You can lose all or some of your money in cryptocurrency. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by SpyMasterTrades
93
🚨Bitcoin is Ready for Correction🚨✅Bitcoin moved as I expected in previous posts and was able to touch the upper line of the Ending Diagonal again ( MicroStrategy helped in this movement by buying $600 million of Bitcoin). 📚The Ending Diagonal Pattern ( Elliot's point of view) is the same as the Rising Wedge Pattern ( Classical Analysis point of view). 🌊According to the theory of Elliott waves , Bitcoin is at the end of the main wave 3, so to complete this wave, microwave 5 of the main wave 3 had an Ending Diagonal structure. 💡In my opinion, the Ending Diagonal Pattern is standard so that the Fibonacci ratios are consistent with this pattern, as well as Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks . 🔔I expect Bitcoin to start falling after breaking the lower line of the Ending Diagonal Pattern and Support lines and at least fall to 🟢 Support zone($36,000_$35,280) 🟢 or maybe Fill the lower 🔵 CME Gaps 🔵. ❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️: If BTC can break the 🟡PRZ🟡, the Scenario will change. ❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️: An important point you should always remember is capital management and lack of greed. Bitcoin Analyze ( BTCUSDT ), 4-hour time frame ⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
208
Story repeats itself- i have to post this chart. - it seems some peoples didn't get what i posted in one of my older chart. - i will post this chart in comments. - Remember this is not a price prediction. - Everything is just about comparing the past and the present. - in 2018-2019 BTC was fluctuating in bearmarket with 4 Digits. - Now BTC is fluctuating in bearmarket with 5 Digits. - We are evolving in a different trend. - All in graphic and hope you get the idea. Happy Tr4Ding !
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by thecryer
4
🗺️Bitcoin Roadmap🗺️⏰(1-hour time frame)⏰💡Bitcoin tried many times to break the 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡 but failed every time. 🌊In terms of Elliott wave theory , Bitcoin seems to have found microwave 5 of the main wave C at the 🟡Price Reversal Zone(PRZ)🟡 and the upper line of the Rising Wedge Pattern . 💡One of the confirmation signs of our wave counting can be the presence of Regular Divergence(RD-) between two micro waves 3 and 5 of the main wave C. 🔔I expect Bitcoin to attack the Support lines and the lower Rising Wedge Pattern line after breaking the 🟢 Support zone($38,000_$37,650) 🟢. ❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️: An important point you should always remember is capital management and lack of greed. Bitcoin Analyze ( BTCUSDT ), 1-hour time frame ⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
26
🚧Bitcoin Can Drop by Rising Wedge Pattern🚧🏃‍♂️Bitcoin re-entered the 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡 and is currently moving in this zone. 📈If we look at the chart from the view of Classical Analysis , it seems that Bitcoin has succeeded in forming a Rising Wedge Pattern . 🌊In terms of Elliott wave theory , Bitcoin seems to be completing wave C of the corrective Zigzag(ABC/5-3-5) structure. 💡Also, we can see Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks .( Volume ) 🔔I expect Bitcoin to start falling again after touching the upper line of the Rising Wedge Pattern and at least fall to the lower line. If Bitcoin manages to break the support lines and the lower line of the wedge, we should expect Bitcoin to fall to the 🟢 Support zone($36,000_$35,560) 🟢. ❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️: If BTC can break the 🟡PRZ🟡, the Scenario will change. ❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️: An important point you should always remember is capital management and lack of greed. Bitcoin Analyze ( BTCUSDT ), 4-hour time frame ⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
28
Bitcoin Falling to $35,000!? The Ascending Wedge Calls for Doom.Bitcoin has fallen out of the 4HR bull channel and failed to break above the Weekly Resistance 3 times. This is a decent short-term sell signal that if your trade is managed properly, the probability of profit is on your side. How do we trade this? Bitcoins macro trend is bullish, so we must exercise caution when considering a short. While the trend is a major data point, we must also consider the rest of the picture in front of us. Bitcoin has failed three times to break Weekly Resistance, a reversal signal. We've fallen out of the 4HR bull channel, another signal to sell. There's a gap to minor support which has been tested twice and the RSI is below the Moving Average with room to fall; all data points in favor of a short. It is reasonable to have a short-term sell bias on this 4HR timeframe but proceed with caution. The first sign of a bull reversal bar closing on or near its high means it's time to exit the trade. Trade Idea: Short Entry: $37,630 Stop Loss: $38,270 Take Profit: $36,350 Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2 Key Takeaways 1. Fell out of Bull Channel, Now in Ascending Wedge. 2. Currently re-testing bull channel support. 3. Gap down to Minor Support at $36,200. 4. RSI at 48.00 below Moving Average, Bias to Short. 5. Short to Minor Support. You are solely responsible for your trades, trade at your own risk! If you found this analysis helpful, click the Boost button and let us know what you think in the comment section below!
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by TraderEngineering
🚀Bitcoin is Ready to Attack to Resistance lines Again🚀🏃‍♂️Bitcoin is moving near Support lines and a cluster of Fibs and lower line of Descending Channel . 🌊According to the theory of Elliott Waves , Bitcoin has successfully completed the Double Three Correction(WXY) in Descending Channel. 🔔I expect Bitcoin to Go UP at least to the Resistance lines after the Descending Channel break. ❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️: An important point you should always remember is capital management and lack of greed. Bitcoin Analyze ( BTCUSDT ), 15-minute time frame ⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
50
🗺️Bitcoin Roadmap🗺️⏰(15-minute time frame)⏰💡For the umpteenth time, Bitcoin is trying to break the 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡 and a cluster of important Resistances (Pivots) . But in my opinion, Bitcoin needs to have a deeper correction, at least up to the $34,000 price channel , to break this critical area. 🌊In terms of Elliott wave theory , Bitcoin seems to have completed its five-impulse wave at 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡. 💡Also, we can see Regular Divergence(RD-) between two Consecutive Peaks . ⏰If we look at the 4-hour time frame , we will realize that Bitcoin has managed to form an Ascending Triangle Pattern so that point D is now confirmed. So it can be expected that bitcoin will have a minimum drop to the lower line of the triangle, and if the lower line breaks, we can wait for the 🟢 Support zone($36,000_$35,560) 🟢 to break, and if it starts to increase again from the lower line, we can wait for the 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡 to break .👇 🔔I expect Bitcoin to drop to at least the end of wave 4 in the coming hours after breaking the uptrend line and once again attack the 🟢 Support zone($36,000_$35,560) 🟢 and Support lines . ❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️: If Bitcoin can go above $38,520, we can hope that the 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡will be broken and my scenario will change. ❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️: An important point you should always remember is capital management and lack of greed. Bitcoin Analyze ( BTCUSDT ), 15-minute time frame ⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
32
Bitcoin's X-Wave Symphony: Unlocking G, H, I PotentialDeciphering Bitcoin's Monthly Odyssey: Unveiling a NeoWave Correction Introduction: The Grand Correction Unveiled In the vast landscape of Bitcoin's monthly trajectory, a compelling narrative unfolds. Following a substantial downturn, Bitcoin is now engrossed in a corrective phase. This analysis delves into the ongoing X wave, discovering a symmetric pattern that holds the promise of completion through the G wave, with the mysteries of H and I waves yet to be unraveled. Key Insights: Unraveling the NeoWave Correction 📉 After a significant decline, Bitcoin's current correction takes center stage. The intricate dance of the X wave reveals a captivating symmetric pattern, providing a roadmap for the next moves. Symmetry in Focus: G Wave Approaches 🔄 Zooming into the details, our attention turns to the imminent completion of the G wave. Visual aids showcase the symmetrical pattern's evolution, laying the foundation for the subsequent phases. Anticipating the Future: H and I Waves on the Horizon 🔮 The chart becomes a canvas for future projections. The H and I waves, depicted in the analysis, beckon with potential trajectories yet to be charted. What do these forthcoming waves hold for Bitcoin's journey? Chart Analysis: A Visual Guide 📊 Visual representations within the provided chart illustrate the unfolding X wave and the anticipated moves of G, H, and I waves. A glance at this visual guide enhances the understanding of Bitcoin's current phase. Conclusion: Navigating the NeoWave Landscape 🚀 In conclusion, the NeoWave correction becomes a guide for Bitcoin enthusiasts. The imminent completion of the G wave offers a compelling narrative, yet the uncharted territories of H and I waves demand careful navigation. Disclaimer: Insights and Investment Caution ⚠️ This analysis is based on observed patterns and projections. Cryptocurrency investments carry inherent risks. Readers are advised to conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
by TradingHeights
Bitcoin is Ready to ⚔️Attack⚔️ to Support zone⏰(1-Hour)⏰✅As I expected, Bitcoin could NOT break the previous Top and important 🟡Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡. 🏃‍♂️Bitcoin has been moving in an Ascending Channel near the 🟡Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡for the past few days but managed to break the ascending channel and Support line(1) a few hours ago. 🌊According to Elliott's wave theory , all the waves inside the ascending channel formed a Double Three Correction(WXY) . 💡As in my previous post, Bitcoin still has a chance to fill the first 🔵CME Gaps🔵. 🔔I expect Bitcoin to gradually approach the 🟢 Support zone($36,000_$35,560) 🟢 and Support line(2) and eventually break them. ❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️: An important point you should always remember is capital management and lack of greed. Bitcoin Analyze ( BTCUSDT ), 1-hour time frame ⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
64
Bitcoin- Back at resistance. Will it break this time?In my previous BtcUsd analysis, I said that 35k-35.5k is strong support for bitcoin and the main cryptocurrency remains bullish as long as this level is intact. As we can see from the chart, BtcUsd touched and reversed from this zone 3 times in the past month suggesting there is a strong demand under 36k. Yesterday the price rose back to resistance and I'm looking for a break. In this instance, Bitcoin could pass above the important 40k level. I remain bullish as long as support is intact.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob