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Bitcoinbearslayer

Bitcoin - Double Bottom with Bear Trap.Someone I follow on Youtube would call a pattern like this baby blue line a "double bottom with bear trap" Basically it is a W formation or double bottom in the chart price and just about the time everybody thinks we are breaking North the price plummets South thereby confirming the bearish bias. In reality though it is just a "bear trap" catching those that short it off guard and liquidating them when the price reverses again and goes North. Will this pattern happen from here? I don't know, but I sure would be impressed if it did. I'm still long from way back so it doesn't matter to me if we moon right now or have one more spike low. Either I'll ride the ship or buy the dip. Either way I'll be happy :0) Good luck in however you play the next move. BBS out.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BitcoinBearSlayer
1
A new Bullish Channel for Bitcoin?I'll be watching this 4 hour channel on Coinbase to see how long Bitcoin can trade inside it. So long as we don't fall out of the bottom of this Channel we are making bank. :0) Keep in mind that from now until next May 2021 the 365 day stock to flow price will continue to rise until it reaches over $99K. What does that mean in simple terms? As time goes on it will be harder and harder for the Bitcoin price to come back down. For example, when the S2F price hits $20K the chance of Bitcoin ever seeing $10K again will be greatly reduced. The higher the Stock to Flow value, the higher the low end price range as well. That's why we will never see $1, $10, $100, or $1,000 prices again. To expect those prices now you would have to be betting on a total failure of the Bitcoin protocol. If that is what you think, why get involved at all? At any rate, the continuous rise in the Stock to Flow value will continue to push Bitcoin higher and that, my friends, is very Bullish over the next 12-18 months. Good luck! BBS out.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BitcoinBearSlayer
2
Bitcoin Bull-Run: Did it already happen?This analysis is a bit more speculative as I believe it is very hard to predict any securities price-action in the medium-term. With that said, I am providing on very solid scenario: BTC has been bullish for 5 weeks in a row, that being one of the longest 'bull-runs' in BTC history, that of which has consisted of many bullish channels. Often BTC breaks these channels, it often re-tests support and turns into another bullish channel. But how long will this cycle continue? As we know, all good things come to an end. But why now? ]BTC has perhaps broken one of it's biggest upwards channel as seen plotted above but a simple plummet down wouldn't be so smart of market makers to do. Instead, market makers would once again re-test that support and even potentially get a couple wicks past it in order to trigger as much orders as possible to get rid of the buyers and make room for the bear-whales to hop in. Such wick-hunting at would be perfect because, as I pointed out, BTC (recently) always re-tests the support of channels after break through then forms another bullish channel but things could play out differently this time, BTC could pull it's infamous unpredictability card and a dump could follow shortly after the re-test. This sentiment however is already being expressed by the rest of the market however as time keeps passing by the window for BTC's anticipated Bull-Run may now happen, or at least not yet. The final reason why BTC will most likely come to a halt in it's bullish price-action may be in anticipation for an event that would almost inevitably drive price higher, that being the Bitcoin Halving that will happen here in May. The best time for price to plummet would be right before such an event so that the market makers don't have to go against the buying pressure that will likely follow the halving and further more create a lower buying zone to provide for more leverage before a bull market. Conclusion It only makes sense that price would drop some-time very soon within the next couple weeks. If it does not however, it will officially be the longest bull market in BTC history. And if Bitcoin drops, be ready because because what follows may be just be the bull-run we've anticipated for and the re-start of the 4 years cycle. Thanks for reading!
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Mike_McCarthy
2
Bitcoin - Consolidation / Continuation triangleAre you a Bull? Then this triangle is breaking north. Are you a Bear? Then this triangle is breaking south. If you are a market maker it could do both. Move up then down or down then up. If we get a head fake I am in the camp of down then up. Perhaps a break down with a spike low to tag $8,900 area filling the CME gap and sucking in the Bears followed by a rocket shot North. Or we could break North and just keep going. Either way I'm in the Bull camp long term. Still long..... Good luck!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BitcoinBearSlayer
Bitcoin - Final fueling before lift off...It's been a long time but it looks like this major correction is finally coming to an end. The last wave of the WXY needs 5 sub-waves to complete. We either have already completed the fifth or we could continue down to the 1.27 Fib extension around $7,125. I would say that would be the max. We could even creep up to about $8,900 or so before falling back down to $7,125. This $7,125 area also lines up with the 61.8 Fib for the entire move up. (The Golden Fib ratio) For me it doesn't matter. I'm long, staying long, and if we get this last little dip I'll add a bit more if I can. But as far as going flat right now or trying to short the tail-end of this entire move? FUGETABOUTIT!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BitcoinBearSlayer
14
BTC-Please welcome today's contestants on "The Price is Right!"In my previous post I mentioned that I was again studying the "Stock to Flow" model for pricing Bitcoin. This model does not track averages, chart patterns, Fib levels, support / resistance, nothing of the sort. The model just looks at how many Bitcoin have been mined to date and how many will be mined in the future. Add some math to the current stock of coins vs. the number of years it would take to produce them again and voila! You come up with a price. Very similar to gold when calculation the current gold stock vs. how many years it would take to match it. The stock to flow number for Gold is currently around 62 years. This is what makes gold a scarce asset and a long term store of wealth. The Bitcoin stock to flow number is currently at 27.39 That is how many years it would take to mine the current stock available. After the next halving this number will jump to about 56 and the halving after that it will be over 100 surpassing that of Gold. At any rate, using just the stock to flow numbers I made a spreadsheet with some interesting discoveries. I looked at today's price as to how it would compare to a future stock to flow value for each month from September 2019 all the way through December 2021. Here is what I found. As of this post the current price is $8,026.94 This make the current price: 3.91% under valued as of 11/14/2019 247.55% under valued as of 11/24/2020 1,245.28% under valued as of 11/27/2021 Conclusion: If the price remains around the $8K level it will become more and more under valued until it eventually snaps back to the median stock to flow value. The same happens when price climbs way above the current stock to flow value. It goes a few percent over, then 10%, then 15%, then 20%, then 30%, etc. until it finally crashes back to the median value. We are at the low end of the next cycle. If the current price of $8,026.94 were to be the same on 11/27/2021 it would have to jump up 1,245% just to get back to fair value. So basically any prices from $8,300 and lower are an EXTREME bargain when compared to the stock to flow model. For example: The price has to be over $11K by next June just to stay at equilibrium. Neither over valued or under valued. Here is the data source from which I extracted my spreadsheet information. What I noticed is that price will coil like a spring when it is too far over or under the current stock to flow value and will eventually snap back to the mean. We've already done our "snap back" and going forward it will be time to start climbing up again. "https://digitalik.net/btc/" BBS Out.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BitcoinBearSlayer
7
Bitcoin and the Mayer Multiple - Keeping it simpleGood morning my fellow Bitcoinistas! Today I want to take a quick look at something called the "Mayer Multiple". It is simply a multiple of the 200 day moving average. This guy named Mayer noticed that when Bitcoin was under 2.4 of the multiple Bitcoin was a good buy. Well, we are currently at 1.18 On my chart the purple average is a study I made that is 1.1 of the 200 daily moving average. The orange line is the 200 daily moving average. The dotted blue line is my long term FIB channel trend line. As you can see, we are currently in a very sweet buying opportunity. Also, not on this chart, the price is currently pinning through the 20 week moving average which is also a historical buying opportunity. The bottom line? I believe that anywhere from the current price right now all the way down $9K is a tremendous opportunity for HODLers. If we spike down to the 200 daily MA around $8.5K even better. Are much lower prices guaranteed? Nope. You take what you can get. I don't expect the price to go much lower than about $9.3K (around blue dotted line) but even that is not a guarantee. If you are a day trader, swing trader, etc. do whatever you do best. But if you are a long term Holder I think now is a good time to start averaging in to a new long position if you don't already have one or add to an existing position if you do. Not advice, that's just what I've been doing. Good luck! BBS out. P.S. More info on the Mayer Multiple "https://mayermultiple.info/"
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BitcoinBearSlayer
6