BTC RangingPlease feel free to comment on my TA and share your thoughts or remarks. If not, please leave a like to show support!
- Ranging between $9988 and $8550, both daily levels.
- Could also be forming a wedge formation in which a breakout to both sides could occur.
- Chances are more likely we'll see a further retracement towards the daily level of $8550, the weekle level of $8266 or $7803. It wouldn't be illogical for the retracement to coïncide with either the 50MA or 200MA.
Should BTC stay within the daily range a nice profit of 16% could be made. This is where I'll look to setup a trade.
Bitcoindollar
💥 If You not short-time trader, this post for you 💥 Hello-hello, my dear friends!💓💓💓
😉Glad to see you today!
I would like to share my thoughts with you: if you're not a scalper or a short-term trader, let's look at the hourly ⏳ chart and add some history :))
We can see, that we're in an uptrend now .☝🏻
And when in the whole district many guys shout, that we are falling at 6k or at 4k or 2k.😱😱😱 So let's turn off emotions and turn on our brain🧠 (funny said🤣🤣)
I spend days looking at bitcoin charts from all sides in all time-frames🧐🧐
I really liked the vision of @ArShevelev and his latest Bitcoin chart. (I advise you to take a look 📊). Yes, most likely we're in the distribution zone.
And yes, maybe we'll fall below. But you must be prepared for this. ❗❗❗
That's will be a movement within the trend. That's doesn't mean, that we are flying down to bottom at 3k. NO!🙅🏻♀️
It means, that either you must sit still or fix your position. And do not enter the long position!
Even if the price drops to 8,600, globally that's wouldn't change anything.☝🏻 The trend will still remain USCENDING.
Fuf, that's all I wanted to tell you, thanks for your attention.💓💓💓
Stay with me💋
YOUR ROCKET BOMB🚀💣
Bitcoin about to breakout of the pennant?Hey guys,
Just wanted to update you from my previous prediction which is still holding. I drew these arrows a few days ago to try and predict where I think the price of bitcoin is going based on the patterns that are being formed. My prediction so far seems to be accurate so I thought I may as well share it with you so you can see how it plays out. All the technical indicators point up but uncertainty in the market is being caused by tensions with China. As a result this is scaring bulls.
Follow my page and this post to see how this prediction plays out!
BITCOIN EXHAUSTION UPDATE!!!So after a very stubborn consolidation BITCOIN as finally moved into profit and is halfway to our target. As spoken about in my previous BITCOIN analysis. Bitcoin is definitely on an uptrend, However as expected, the price needs to be brought back down during the retracement so that the bulls can take power around the 8500USD mark.
Bitcoin and real chance to recovery #BUY PositionHey guys, I used several indicators and real facts, what's going on at the market right now. I used a daily chart to show you a full analysis of very popular cryptocurrency Bitcoin. Indicators, which are very useful and I really suggest you are Ichimoku clouds, Pivot numbers, where you can see real R1, R2, R3 and so on. My little chart story is about the impact of the COVID-19 and recovery process of this currency, which I'm expecting to become more popular! I suggest you BUY position and wait for the uptrend, where we have chance to hit 10,000 and more.
If you like my analysis don't forget to put LIKE and you can see other descriptions on the chart. Thanks and GL
MEGA HUGE BREAKOUT ON WAY BY WHALES DEPENDING MX EFFECT!!Depending on MX effect, expecting a huge move at btc at short term.
The whales can breakout the 10400 usd area, as we are still in up trend. the whale buy zone schould be between 9600- 9700 to 10400 usd as expecting.
Be Acctive for the next hours at BTC.
As always, i have said it at time.
BITCOIN - Triangle Pattern In Elliott Wave Theory ABCDE - SignalHow do you Trade it?
What is a triangle pattern in technical analysis
How is the pattern constructed
How and at what points in the pattern do you trade a triangle
Elliott Wave triangles are corrective patterns that consolidate the previous trend. Elliott Wave triangles consist of five waves labeled A-B-C-D-E . There are rules and three guidelines in the construction and identification of Elliott Wave triangles.
RULES
#1: THE SUB WAVES OF THE TRIANGLE DIVIDE AS 3-3-3-3-3
If you zoom in on the construction of the triangle, you should be able to identify three wave corrective moves for each of the five waves. (See image below)
#2: THE SUB WAVES MUST BE ZIGZAGS, MULTIPLE ZIGZAGS, OR TRIANGLES.
I have mentioned many times before how the zigzag is one of the building blocks for the Elliott Wave patterns. At least four of the waves must be zigzags. One wave can be more complex like a multiple zigzag or even another triangle.
#3: WAVE ‘C’ CANNOT MOVE BEYOND THE ENDING PRICE OF WAVE ‘A’
#4: WAVE ‘D’ CANNOT MOVE BEYOND THE ENDING PRICE OF WAVE ‘B’
#5: WAVE ‘E’ CANNOT MOVE BEYOND THE ENDING PRICE OF WAVE ‘C’
On each of the rules above, the final three waves of the triangle become progressively shorter than the previous wave. As a result, when you draw trend lines connecting the wave extremes, the pattern takes shape of a triangle.
There are three guidelines to identifying a triangle. First, triangles are found in only certain points in the wave structure. Most triangles appear as the second to last wave of the larger sequence. For example, in an impulse, a triangle may appear in the fourth wave position, which is the second to last wave of the five-wave impulse. Triangles may appear in the ‘B’ wave of a zigzag, which is the second to last wave of the A-B-C zigzag sequence .
Typical spots in the wave structure where you might find a triangle:
Fourth wave of an impulse wave
‘B’ waves of a zigzag pattern
‘X’ of ‘Z’ waves of complex combinations
‘Y’ waves of a W-X-Y combination
Therefore, when you correctly identify a triangle, it can tip you off as to the larger wave sequence because it provides a warning that the next move is likely an ending wave!
Another guideline in triangle construction is that the ‘B’ wave tends to retrace approximately 61-161% of wave ‘A’. If the ‘B’ wave overshoots and retraces 100% or more of wave ‘A’, then it is considered a running triangle. Running triangles are seen as strong indicators of a powerful trend. The trend was so powerful that the ‘B’ wave shot to a new price extreme.
Lastly, sometimes you can estimate termination points of the some of the waves in the triangle by comparing the current wave to its alternate wave. For example, you might find wave ‘C’ to be 61.8% or 78.6% the length of wave ‘A’. A similar ratio might be realized for wave ‘D’ compared to wave ‘B’ or wave ‘E’ compared to wave ‘C’.
TRADING TRIANGLES
The best way to trade an Elliott Wave triangle is to anticipate the end of wave ‘E’. Sometimes this is easier said than done. To estimate the end of wave ‘E’, use the estimation guideline noted above by measuring the length of wave ‘C’ and finding that level where wave ‘E’ is 61% or 78% of its length.
Also, draw a trend line connecting the wave ‘A’ and wave ‘C’ extremes. Many times, wave ‘E’ draws close and sometimes even overshoots that trend line. Stop loss and risk on the trade is placed at the wave ‘C’ price extreme.
Price targets can be found by projecting a fifth wave price measurement (in an impulse) or equal wave price measurement (in a zigzag). This typically yields a one to two risk to reward ratio or better.
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Technical analysis
Let's talk a little bit about the current BITCOIN situation.
Bitcoin remains under pressure, and it remains vulnerable. $10550 represents resistance, but we're considering lowering it to $10085.5 (BITMEX).
While BTC is at levels that could see price turning higher, I noted that volume measures show bulls continue to be on the sidelines. As such, the impetus for a meaningful move higher is muted. That makes the bears' work a lot easier and keeps BTC exposed. Until BITCOIN can break above $10085.5, as evidence for a completed correction, we'll have to allow for further possible lows.
The corrective nature of the price action suggests that BTC is setting up for at least another three waves below once this pullback ends. A zigzag unfolding for wave is expected to at least test the $6500 to complete wave. Against $10085.5, we'll continue to allow for lower in a still-unfolding wave. A breach of $8100 would hint wave is underway.
However, it is not uncommon for these crypto-currencies to stage abrupt reversals, therefore, be aware that a break of $10.085.5 could trigger upside acceleration. We on the lookout for evidence a reversal has occurred.
A further fall to the $6500 region would be catastrophic in the current scenario, I would be worried for the holders if it happens. But in my case I am not a BTC Holder, I am really a trader, so what really matters to me is my USD balance. I keep a portion of my portfolio at BitMEX for use in leveraged trade and the rest remains in USD on other exchanges. To be honest, My focus is on trading. So I really don't care if the price goes to go UP or fall. I'm ready for both scenarios and take a position according to the main trend. We have to analyze the scenario as a whole.
We're just patiently waiting for the price to reach our targets. Patience is the greatest virtue needed to be a successful trader!
It definitely looks the trend has reversed. That seems to be the perfect scenario to be followed by a solid downside thrust of based on "price action", based on Short-term demand expected in the zone.
Seems a perfect plan for Market makers
Remember, here shorts positions they are against the trend. All in all "Price action" may happen to trap greedy long position and big sharp volatility full of wipe out with a massive long squeeze.
Our philosophy focuses on capital preservation and good risk/return operations with a low-risk.
I will bring updates based on price action, If necessary!!!
- BlackMEX
Remember: $10085.5 is a critical resistance for this outlook.
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🔔 XBTUSD 🔔
📉 SHORT / SWING
💹 BitMEX (x25)
🔀 Entry Zone: $9202
➡️ ENTRY POINT : $9202 - $9195.5
⛔ STOP-LOSS: $10089 (-8.79%)
🏁 EXIT TARGET:
T1 = 8050 (+12.52%) (Short-term)
T2 = 6873 (+25.31%) (Short-term)
T3 = 6114 (+33.56%) (OBJETIVE)
T4 = 4887 (+46.89%) (Middle-term)
✅ Projected net profit: 33,56%
⛔ Projected stop-loss: -8.79%
Capital exposure: 10% of your balance
Note: Prices can vary between Bitcoin exchanges, and consequently there may be differences in our chart prices due to different data sets.
This is how I will be keep my position. If you have a conservative profile and don't want to risk such a large part of your portfolio in this trade, you just have to reduce the % of your balance that will be used on sell orders, or reduce leverage."
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"Worse than not finishing a trip is never leaving."
– Amyr Klink.
BTCUSD beware of the bear trap !!!A bear trap:
As in my previous article was using the combination of 3 indicators to find the bullish and bearish trend of Bitcoinon one day chart.
1st: Vervorrt heikin-ashi long-term candlestick oscillator.
2nd: MACD custom indicator multiple time frame , this is the same MACD indicators that we use normally but this indicator shows the buying and sell signals with crosses.
3rd: Stochastic indicator.
Ater placing these three indicators I realized that since October 2019 the Bitcoin is following a certain pattern for the bear move.The Vervorrt heikin-ashi long-term candlestick oscillator shows whether the priceline is in up or down trend . When it changes to green color it means that priceline is in bullish trend and when it changes to red color then it means that price action is in down trend. Now after observing the daily chart it can be seen that whenever this vervoort indicator turns green then the MACD indicator 1st gives the sell signal and then again it gives buy signal and again it gives sell signal and on this third sell signal if the stochastic also gives the bear cross then the leading cryptocurrency turns bearish and starts the bearish move. It can be observed form 24th October to 25th November 2019. Then from 23rd Jan to 13th March 2020.
This time again when the vervoort changed to green color then MACD 1st gave sell signal then buy signal and finally it has again given sell signal on 11th May and the stochastic also has given bear cross. But on 14th of May up to so far we can see that the MACD has turned weak bearish from strong bearish and the stochastic has also given bull cross. Now both indicators are giving weak bullish signals but it can be a bear trap because if we move back on 22nd Feb then it can be witnessed that after receiving the final sell signal from the MACD indicator and stochastic the MACD again turned weak bearish and we also received a stochastic bull cross on 23rd of Feb 2020. But after three candles the MACD again turned strong bearish without giving the buying signals and the stochastic again gave bear cross then we have witnessed a significant drop in the month of March 2020.
Move movement RSI and price action is not synchronized:
Now if we switch to the short-term hourly chart then it can be easily seen that the price action is moving sideways since 14th May up till now. But the RSI is bearish and moving down. If the price action moves up or sideways and the RSI continuously moves down then it is considered as if bearish signal among the traders community. Therefore there are chances of significant drop on short term at any time.
$10K a psychological resistance:
Now I would like to recall the strongest resistance block that starts from $9000 to $9500. This block has been working as a strong support and resistance since January 2018. The price action of the leading cryptocurrency recently has made the second attempt to breakout this resistance level. Even at the current candlestick the Bitcoin is struggling to breakout. But so for the priceline is not able to break out this block. After this resistance level we have the $10,000 psychological resistance level but in my point of view the resistance block of $9000 to $9500 is more important than the psychological resistance of $10K. Because if we see the price action then the Bitcoin has used this block as support and resistance levels more than $10,000 as per previous history. Therefore once the price action of BTC will be able to break out the $9500 resistance level then it can take no time to breakout the $10,000 resistance level. But in order to have a successful break out from $9500 resistance we need the closing above $9500 and after that the price action may rest the previous resistance as support and after successful retest the price action may attempt to breakout the 10K resistance.
Second attempt to breakout the channel resistance is likely to be failed:
As discussed in my previous article we have seen that the price action has almost formed the same kind of up channel that was formed back in December 2019 to February 2020. On 7th, 8th and 9th May we have witnessed recent attemts by the priceline of BTC to breakout resistance of the channel. And then we have seen a significant drop up to $8109. And this time price action did not hit the support of this channel because we had the 25 simple moving average support above the channel support that stopped the priceline to move more down. And we can also watch that this time the priceline is not able to reach at resistance of the channel and likely to move down soon. If we see the simple moving averages on this daily chart then their positions are very optimistic. Because the 25 simple moving average has formed the golden cross with all simple moving averages and the 50 simple moving average is moving upward to form the golden cross with 100 and 200 simple moving averages.
If the 50 SMA will continue this move and form the golden cross with 100 and 200 simple moving averages then it can produce a powerful bullish divergence that can lead the priceline to break out that resistance of the channel. Because the golden cross between 50 and 200 simple moving average is considered a strong buying signal among the traders community. However if the 50 simple moving average will be moved down from here then we can expect a short term bearish rally by the Bitcoin.
Big down channel on weekly chart:
Now let's switch to the weekly chart and here the priceline of Bitcoin has formed another very big down channel. And on current candlestick it has made third attempt to break out the channel resistance. But unfortunately sofar the price action is not able to break out. If the Bitcoin starts bearish move from here then first we can expect the priceline will retest the support of the channel that has been formed on the daily chart. After that we have the 25 simple moving every support on the weekly chart that can be tested as a support by the price action at $7800 and if this 25 SMA will be broken down then BTC may retest the 100 SMA that is at $7100. And in case the price action of leading cryptocurrency will break down the 100 simple moving average on this weekly chart then the priceline may reach the 200 simple moving average that is a strongest support ever in the history of the Bitcoin. At this time the 200 SMA is at $5700.
Bearish BAT on 4hr chart is pushing the priceline down:
Now I would like to take you to the 4 hour chart where the Bitcoin has formed a bearish BAT pattern. This pattern was started from from 7th May and has been completed on 14th May 2020. Since then we have witnessed that after entering the potential reversal zone of bearish BAT the priceline is moving down. It seems to be that bearish harmonic BAT is working and pushing the priceline down towards the previous support.
Concusion:
On short term and midterm the signals are in favor of bears rather than bulls. Therefore it is possible that the bears will take over soon and drive the priceline to atleast the support of the channel and further downward move can lead the price action to retest the previous supports. However on the long term the Bitcoin is still strong bullish.
Is BITCOIN about to jump? Take a look at these trendsIn an update from my last post, I have extended the trend line from my previous post. We can see that this recent run we have had is trading along with it. We should be seeing some movement as we break out of it. If we break the fib level, and a break past 10.2; we should be seeing a nice jump. On the other hand, the recent fibs we broke, are now support. These are also the levels we should see bitcoin target if it were to fall through.
As you can see, bitcoin just had a dump, which took out a bunch of stop losses. It was able to recover partially and stay above the trend line. Our hope is that it trades sideways up this trend line, with an eventual breakout at the fib level, targetting the next fib level.
If you like what you see, make sure to like this post and follow me, so you can see if this prediction ends up being correct.
Using Stock to Flow model 4 future BITCOIN PRICE PREDICTIONTo predict Bitcoin’s fair future value using the stock-to-flow model I charted stock to flow median price on a halvening dates and used parallel price channel as a boundary.
The middle price is the "fair" price for that halvening period
Upper price is 200% increase that correspons to overshoot above "fair" price during the bubble phase.
The lower price corresponds to a 50% decrease from the "fair" price during the bear market after overshoot period ends.
By this model next "fair price" to be expected in a year (because of the price lag) is 120 000 USD, 60k is price for a bear market while 360k is FOMO phase, and while this price might look too large for a asset class that just started to be seen as an investment asset class, central banks monetary policy works in Bitcoins favour.
This (median) price would put Bitcoins marketcap above 2 Trillion Dollars. A huge sum by most standards, but since Corona virus crash more than 4 Trillion dollars found its way just into American economy, without ECB plan to flood the markets with even more free money (and the money printing machine still goes brrrrrrr).
This fact means that price of 120K could in fact be way larger because of the inflation. Although all of this might look "moonboyish" Bitcoin doesn't stop to amaze us for more than decade. Now It is not the matter of IF bitcoin makes, it already made it... but a question how far will it go.
Bitcoin: Bearish Divergence Analysis 1D (May 10)X Force Global Analysis:
We have been approaching Bitcoin from a cautiously bearish perspective, as it has been overextended and overbought for days. After a 20% correction from the local high, we reassess its technicals - specifically through divergences - to determine Bitcoin's probable cases.
Explanations of Recent Historical Divergences
Case 1. Hidden Bullish Divergence
- In this case, we see higher lows for the price, and lower lows for the indicators.
- The Relative Strength Index ( RSI ) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence ( MACD ) both show lower lows
- This bullish divergence played out to an 82% price movement upwards
Case 2. Regular Bearish Divergence
- In this case, we see higher highs for the price, and lower highs for the indicators.
- Both the RSI and MACD show lower highs
- This bearish divergence played out, leading to a -28% move
Case 3. Hidden Bullish Divergence
- In this case, we see higher lows for the price, and lower lows for the indicator
- The MACD shows a decreasing trend of lower lows
- This bullish divergence played out, leading to a 30% move
Case 4. Hidden Bearish Divergence
- In this case, we see lower highs for the price, and higher highs for the indicator
- The RSI shows higher highs
- This bearish divergence played out, leading to -24% in Bitcoin's price
Case 5. Regular Bullish Divergence
- In this case, we see lower lows for the price, and higherlows for the indicators.
- The RSI and MACD both show higher lows
- This bullish divergence played out to a 41% price movement upwards
Case 6. Regular Bullish Divergence
- In this case, we see lower lows for the price, and higherlows for the indicators.
- The RSI and MACD both show higher lows
- This bullish divergence played out to a 28% price movement upwards
Bearish Evidence
Case 7. Potential Hidden Bearish Divergence
- In this case, we are seeing a potential hidden bearish divergence setup, with lower highs for the price, and higher highs for the indicator
- The RSI shows higher highs, with further potential downside, despite a 20% correction from the local top
Market Sentiment:
The long short ratio remains at 63 to 37, with the market still dominated by bullish sentiment, despite a 20% drop.
What We Believe
While many bulls interpret this recent drop as a mere correction after a 160%+ rally from the local bottom, we believe that a corrective trend is in play, as suggested by a plethora of bearish evidence covered in our analyses.
Trade Safe.
How Bitcoin will touch 10K again ?Bitcoin Bull view using 4H timeframe
Bitcoin moving within a Channel Pattern and the most expected correction respected the channel pattern as well as the Fib retracement level of 61.8%. What is next from here ?
1. Keep buying within the price range 8100-8600 which respects the channel pattern and the fib retracement level of 61.8%
2. keep a tight stop loss level at 7800
3. Target should be around 10400 - 10700 which we can expect to touch by 20 May
4. Profit broadly can be 30%
5. If stop loss hits, you exit at 4-6% loss
6. RR = 6x, which is a decent ratio
Stay strong and enjoy this correction phase !