Bitcoindominance
BTC DOMINANCE (4H) UpdateThis analysis is an update of the analysis you see in the "Related publications" section
From the point where we placed the red arrow on the chart, Bitcoin dominance correction has started.
After completing wave A, the price entered wave B.
Wave B appears to be a diametric, and we are currently in wave f of this diametric.
It seems that one wave g of this diametric remains, which could extend until December 31, 2024. From January 1, 2025, this index may experience a decline. This date aligns with when Trump takes office, bringing various plans for the crypto market.
If a weekly candle closes below the green zone, this scenario will be invalidated, and Bitcoin dominance will likely experience a more significant drop.
For now, this is our perspective on Bitcoin dominance.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
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Fate of altcoin maket If you look at CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D you can notice that what we called "start of altcoin market" was merely 3 week BTC dominance retrace and when true altcoin market starts, you will notice it by very fast change of narrative and rapid altcoin market growth.
Anyway, I suppose that movements of Altcoin market capitalization will follow some sort of Elliot waves pattern (something like that).
However this altcoin cycle may happen in a very different nature and mostly will be comprised of memecoins, so your old altcoin bought 4 years ago might stay worthless regardless of the altcoin bullish market
BTC.D Analysis: Retest of Key Area Highly LikelyBitcoin Dominance Looking
Bitcoin dominance looks very strong but BTC has entered the range. So I think dominance may follow a calmer course for a while, a few coins that have separated from the herd may make good moves in these few days, but it is too early to claim that the general atmosphere is completely bullish, because SP500 seems to be making a deep correction and is giving signals of this. I do not buy anything during the New Year, and I will not buy, but then I will spend all of these corrections with buying because I believe that 2025 will be good.
A retest of this area in BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance) seems very possible based on current market behavior. This level holds significance as a potential reaction zone for further movements.
Also, I see no point in saying that this view of dominance supports the blue box analysis I shared here:
Because when BTC goes down to blue box we will see an upside move on dominance then we blue box of dominance chart will support the price, we will see an upmove on both.
Key Points:
Current Setup: BTC.D is approaching a critical area of interest.
Retest Likelihood: Market dynamics suggest a probable revisit to this zone.
Focus: Monitoring the reaction at this level for future directional clarity.
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When and Where this Bull Market Ends / BTC.D and TOTAL3 BehaviorCRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
Bitcoin Dominance and Alt Season Trigger:
The chart indicates that when Bitcoin Dominance reaches around 59%-64%, there’s a high chance of an BTC dominance market correction. This level often signals the end of a Bitcoin rally and the start of funds flowing into altcoins.
You can use this dominance level as a timing signal to anticipate the start of the next alt season.
Historical Patterns and Timelines:
Key vertical markers show important dates from past cycles, such as 2018, 2021, and projected points for 2025. These points highlight recurring patterns that can help forecast the end of the current Bitcoin rally.
TOTAL3 Index Trends Relative to BTC:
The TOTAL3 index (all altcoins excluding BTC and ETH) shows that after Bitcoin Dominance declines, TOTAL3 often experiences a sharp rise. This pattern has repeated in previous cycles, hinting at a potential similar move in the upcoming alt season.
Bitcoin Price Rallies and Corrections:
The lower chart shows Bitcoin's bullish and bearish phases, typically lasting between 450 to 550 days. This timeframe can help estimate the remaining duration of the current Bitcoin rally.
Future Predictions:
Based on the chart, Bitcoin Dominance is expected to reach critical levels again in 2025, potentially marking the start of the next major alt season. While this timeline depends on market conditions and investor behavior, it offers a general framework.
BTC Dominance Chart - BITCOIN DOMINANCEBTC Dominance is the most important chart to follow to understand whether the crypto market is in an altcoin or Bitcoin season.
"We had a great projection regarding the Bitcoin Dominance bearish shift around the 60% level, and it played out perfectly. I’ve linked that projection to this post for reference.
Currently, Bitcoin Dominance is testing the weekly supply zone as a bearish retest. This aligns with the premium side of the Fibonacci, adding to my conviction that we’re likely to see a bearish reversal from here, forming a lower high. This lower high could potentially trigger another leg down in dominance, setting the stage for a strong altcoin season.
I expect this shift to happen very soon.
The exact timing of the Altcoin season !As you know, with the drop in Bitcoin dominance, altcoins yield higher returns compared to Bitcoin. Conversely, when Bitcoin dominance rises, Bitcoin yields higher returns compared to altcoins.
From the point where we placed the red arrow on the chart, it seems that the bearish waves of Bitcoin dominance have begun.
Wave A has been completed, and we are now in Wave B.
Currently, it appears we are in Wave B/X, which is a diametric pattern.
After this diametric, we expect Bitcoin dominance to enter Wave C, which is a bearish wave.
We anticipate that the altcoin season will begin from a high supply level.
This is our perspective on Bitcoin dominance.
Before altcoins undergo further correction, there will be a recovery in wave e of this dominance.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
Bitcoin Dominance Analysis Update (12H)This analysis is an update of the analysis you see in the "Related publications" section
The price reached the green zone and is now pumping. We anticipate the start of a drop and an alt-season from the upper red zone.
Note that, in terms of price, we consider this area to be the peak of Bitcoin dominance. However, in terms of timing and the number of times this level is tested, there is no certainty. This means that when Bitcoin dominance reaches the upper red level, you can enter altcoins. However, altcoin fluctuations might increase, and it could take some time, as the market maker might cause some turbulence before the main move.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
Market Dominance Analysis–Bullish for Altcoins, Caution AdvisedKey Observations:
Dominance Rejection: The market dominance faced a strong rejection after reaching the 58% level, aligning with key resistance at the 7 and 21-day EMAs. This suggests a bullish signal for altcoins, as the dominance pullback indicates a potential shift in momentum away from Bitcoin.
Bullish Shift for Altcoins: Altcoins are positioned to benefit from this shift, especially if dominance continues to weaken. The key support for dominance lies around the 200-day EMA, and if dominance closes this week below this level, further bullish potential for altcoins could unfold.
Key Levels to Monitor:
Resistance for Dominance: Should dominance attempt to rise again, watch for potential resistance at 54.5% and 53% levels. These could act as key turning points, marking possible take-profit (TP) zones for altcoins as dominance struggles to break higher.
Strategy for Altcoins:
Cautious Optimism: While the rejection of dominance is a bullish signal, altcoins should remain cautious of dips into the danger zones around 54.5% and 53% dominance, which could pose resistance.
Target Zones: The shift in momentum suggests potential for continued altcoin strength, with dominance weakening if the candle close remains under the 200-day EMA.
Conclusion: The recent rejection of dominance is a strong bullish sign for altcoins, but traders should keep a close eye on the danger zones around the 54.5% and 53% dominance levels. If dominance fails to reclaim these areas, altcoins could continue to see further gains.
Btc Dominance appears to be getting rejected from channel retestBitcoin dominance chart just recently bounced back up in an attempt to climb back inside the ascending channel it recently broke under and as of now both candles that sent a wick back inside the channel upon the current retest both closed their candle bodies with the channel still as resistance. Since then we are now seeing the current candle appear to head lower again suggesting the bottom trendline of the channel will be confirmed as solidified resistance, in which case price action has a much higher probability at this point of validating the breakdown and dumping to the 53% target. If this occurs we are very likely to see alt season really tart too kick in here soon. *not financial advice*
Can we consider this a retest?In my last post on bitcoin dominance I noted that for the first time in a year and a half we had broken our wedge to the downside. This was hugely bullish for altcoins and indeed, we saw some massive pumps occurring in the space. But I also cautioned that we could reverse and head back up to retest the underside of our wedge. This is a classic technical move. I call it "Kiss Mamma Good-bye" as price always seems to like to come back one more sentimental time to an area of supreme significance before moving on. This retest would then cause alts to drop significantly, liquidating many. And we saw this occur this past week. So, can we consider this our retest? I know we didn't touch the underside of our wedge completely but bulls are in a hurry here. They want one last good pump before Christmas. And if my chart is correct, I think we'll get that.
✌️ Stew
BTC.D Update (1D)This analysis is an update of the analysis you see in the "Related publications" section
Based on the previous analysis, we anticipated an upward movement in Bitcoin dominance.
Now, considering recent candlestick patterns, the movement path can be identified more clearly.
Soon, there may be a slight recovery in altcoins, but Bitcoin dominance could rise again to the 59 level before the expected altcoin season begins.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
Crucial Moment for ETH/BTC- ETH/BTC is approaching the end of a symmetrical triangle formation on the daily chart, which began back in July 2022.
- The CM Williams Vix and Ultimate RSI indicators suggest that the bottom was established in late March 2023.
- Currently, ETH/BTC is testing a significant resistance line that has held strong since July 2017.
Additionally, considering the Bitcoin Dominance nearing a resistance point (see attached analysis below), it wouldn't surprise me if we witness a breakout for ETH/BTC, resulting in a decreasing Bitcoin dominance and Ethereum outperforming BTC at the moment.
I will conduct further analysis below using other timeframes
#Altcoins super cycle has just begun!#Bitcoin dominance monthly rising wedge breakout and breakdown completed!
#Alts market capitalization OTHER TOTAL3 AND TOTAL2 The breaking and closing of the handle cup formation that formed on a monthly basis has been completed.
We are moving towards #Altseason in an environment of Denial and Disbelief!
AltSeason is approaching.This analysis is an update of the analysis you see in the "Related publications" section
A sharp drop occurred after hitting the red box, indicating a post-pattern movement.
A structural change has occurred in higher timeframes, and the trendline has been lost. We do not expect a higher high (H) from Bitcoin dominance.
With a pullback to higher areas, it could experience more drops, considering that Bitcoin has been solidifying around important supply zones. With the decline in Bitcoin dominance, we expect a good altseason in crypto.
The timeframe is 3 days, and this altseason could last for several months.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
The Rising Trend in Bitcoin Dominance Has Been Broken!On the weekly chart, Bitcoin dominance has fallen below a critical support level for the first time in 693 days. Could this give altcoins some breathing room?
The answer is short: yes.
The negative divergence present in the dominance RSI has played out. Additionally, RSI has dropped below the 50-point mark on the weekly chart, which is significant for the continuation of the downtrend. When we analyze ADX DI, we see signals that support the downward trend in dominance. Furthermore, BTC.D has broken the ascending trendline (marked in red), which had persisted for 98 weeks.
As a bonus, our AlphaTrend indicator's ascending trend support is at the 58.50% level. If BTC.D closes below this level, AlphaTrend is set to generate a sell signal for the first time in approximately 123 weeks. The weakening of dominance has already started reflecting positively on altcoins. However, there’s no need to get overly excited yet; we must continue making data-driven decisions.
A decline in dominance alone does not guarantee an altcoin rally. However, the potential end of Bitcoin's market hegemony is a highly positive signal for altcoin investors.
Thank you for reading!