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Bitcoinforecast

Preparing for A "Best-Case" Scenario As I've been talking about over the last several weeks, the market SEEMS overdue for some sort of relief rally. Although I believe crypto has begun a longer term downtrend and likely will not see all-time highs in the foreseeable future, it is not unreasonable to expect some hope to be injected into the market before further sustained downside. Of course, the market can also continue its death-spiral, but I'm seeing what usually constitute bottoming signals: 1) Overwhelming negative sentiment 2) Retail traders becoming interested in shorting 3) Extremely negative articles in the news 4) Low Bitcoin exchange balance - this one may not mean much since supply doesn't need to affect traded price, but historically the balance goes UP along with major distribution, not down. 5) Indicators. The MACD, Ultimate Oscillator, and Stoch all leave room for several weeks of upside, even if it's a slow grind. Unfortunately, many of these "bottoming" signals already presented themselves at the three previous "floors," at $32k, $28k, and now $17.6k. Most traders trying to time a bottom still expect the crypto market to reach a new all-time high eventually. I do not operate under this assumption anymore. I think most of those people will get rekt and throw good money after bad. This would be the phase where the larger exchanges assume even more risk to keep the market afloat, and the next leg down begins when those larger firms capitulate as well. I think the biggest crypto bulls (C.Z., Michael Saylor, etc.) will be forced to admit defeat before bottom is reached. This is just my brazen opinion. What's Different This Time?? The only thing that *could* be different this time is that declining oil prices may alleviate liquidity constraints across markets. We may even get a rapid deflationary period, kind of in a whipsaw reaction to easing supply bottlenecks and fuel price relief. Michael Burry mentioned something about this recently. Deflation could lead to momentary relief in markets, as people buy back some riskier assets. However, it may also be accompanied by declining profits for companies, and eventually severe layoffs. Optimistically, this could improve the outlook for small businesses and community organizations, but cause mayhem for large corporations. All of this is speculation, of course, since there are so many interacting variables with unpredictable behavior and outcomes. Why Would The Market Go Up, if Everything Sucks? I myself have been incredibly negative about crypto since the beginning of 2022, well before most of the carnage hit the market, so I was able to reduce my risk and get out in time. Here is the post that marked my transition from long term bullish to longer term bearish, in the very beginning of 2022. I received criticism from more experienced investors for being too flighty. But now is it time for me to become more positive? Am I still being too flighty? To be honest, I still don't see anything of substance emerging from the crypto market, but I do admit that the emotions of traders are likely to continue being manipulated, which could result in some surprisingly large upside moves. I think the most likely way traders will be manipulated is to the upside. Hence, I am looking for some opportunities at current levels to buy a little bit, to be sold towards the end of the year. I am so disconnected from any emotional attachment to crypto at this point that I can have a fairly balanced approach, and not care about wishing new all-time highs into existence. On the above chart, I've drawn a speculative trajectory to show a somewhat realistic outlook for the coming months, based on the broader market structure and sentiment. This is the best I think we can hope, if the market is to bounce. I think there is a slim possibility for a complete reversal here, but I noted the conditions necessary for that in my last analysis, linked here: People are now talking about the Pi cycle bottom indicator for Bitcoin, which just flashed. Sure, this can be a bottom. As I keep saying, buyers are welcome to that $20k Bitcoin at any time, although bulls really don't want to see it become heavy resistance. As it now stands, the 200 week MA is already becoming resistance for the very first time in Bitcoin's history. This is really bad news. But, it still holds on the TOTAL chart. What's particularly interesting about the above chart is that the TOTAL crypto market cap tested its 2017 all-time high perfectly. If it continues to hold, I think the market can build a bit of a base here and try to exit the downtrend closer to the end of 2022. My speculation is that this breakout fails and TOTAL cannot hold above its next major weekly Moving Average (100 MA, yellow), while traditional markets make a lower high peak after weeks of slowly grinding up. Then, once 2023 begins, markets enter a new phase of implosion. I think it's fairly likely we see some debt-related liquidations across major financial firms in the U.S., as the central bank will remain under stress due to over-reliance on the dollar. The crypto collapse in this case is a strong warning signal to major financial institutions. Without the ability to print much money, I think we enter the worst depression since the 1929. Something like this: How Can We Avoid The Collapse? Unless economic conditions sort themselves out miraculously, and unless humanity does some seriously aggressive problem-solving, I think it will be really hard to avoid a depression. Most importantly, the U.S. needs to motivate its workforce and develop projects people actively want to work on - such as improving transportation infrastructure and water management/conservation infrastructure. This could actively solve both inflation and labor issues while helping us move forward in a future that will likely be characterized by severe clean water shortages and changes in how we use fuel. Unfortunately, humans have been trained to be more reactive than proactive over the last century, which makes the aggressive problem-solving more likely to occur once we have reached peak disaster, rather than beforehand. Part of this is due to exploitation and wealth inequality. Since the wealthy elite hold the power and they also do not feel the effects of global economic turmoil until things are at their worst, they are unlikely to do anything preventative. This isn't always because they are bad people, but simply because their privilege makes them blissfully unaware, and less likely to take actions that they see as too "drastic." The good news is, major contractions are opportunities for growth, in the longer term. Think of it as a necessary growing pain for humanity. Now if this is the BEST-case scenario, what's the worst? Well, the market can actually just continue to the downside here and offer zero opportunity for people to get out at higher prices. This becomes more likely if traditional markets have not yet reached their short-term bottom, and if more systemic issues surface. Even if Bitcoin heads to a new low shortly, there is still the possibility for a relief rally in the coming months, although it's mostly guesswork. This is not meant as financial advice. This is meant for personal use, speculation, and entertainment only. -Victor Cobra
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by VictorCobra
5
Bitcoin - Escalation or Reprieve? After some time, Bitcoin has finally tested the $20k level. All the cryptos I held throughout the bull market are now below the levels where I first de-risked in January, 2021. This means that prices are now below every single one of my sell points. A move like this seemed likely to me, considering the breakdown of the 3-day 200 MA back in April. Prior to that, I liquidated most of my crypto earlier in 2022, due to a multitude of other warning signs. Here is the post from April, calling for $20k: In my last Bitcoin analysis, I wrote about the potential for some sort of relief rally heading into the U.S. Midterm elections. Since then, price has continued to drop, but this scenario remains in play. This is not a time where I feel comfortable putting in a lot of capital, but it's a time where I'm certainly looking or opportunities. This is why I'm toying with some small alt positions to see if I can catch a bounce. Here's the last analysis: Bitcoin now sits dangerously below the 200 week MA (teal), and must get above soon, otherwise it risks becoming major resistance. As Ethereum is now decidedly below its 2017 all-time high (near $1440 on Binance), it seems a real possibility Bitcoin will drop below the key $19-20k zone. Some liquidity still exists in the large area between $13.6k and $17.2k, so price can even venture briefly down there before any meaningful recovery for the market. The theme of this post is ESCALATION or REPRIEVE. What would ESCALATION look like? Well, as you might have noticed, a few major funds, platforms, and exchanges are in danger of insolvency. Many in this space were irresponsibly leveraged, most likely because they did not believe Bitcoin would ever retest its 2017 high and continue its established pattern. Escalation would mean that this creates a domino effect, until almost every exchange and firm shuts down, resulting in an extreme liquidity crisis. This could, in theory, push Bitcoin price continuously lower with no end in sight. This is what most sellers fear at the moment. And it's a very real possibility. Now, what would a REPRIEVE look like? A reprieve is a delay in punishment. Sure, Bitcoin can bounce here and slowly grind up towards some other Moving Average resistances in the coming months. Historically, it has done this, once it reaches the 200 week MA. The way I see it, a relief rally would simply delay the inevitable. I no longer believe Bitcoin is in a long term uptrend, and instead has reversed to the downside. Almost every bullish narrative for Bitcoin price has now unwinded, in my opinion. I think the last remaining chance is forced adoption . This would mean that although most people would not choose to use it (the evidence for this already exists in El Salvador), the government could enslave everyone by buying a bunch of Bitcoin and doling out limited amounts of it to the populace once the Dollar collapses. This is the doomsday scenario Bitcoiners have been prepping for this whole time. There is an incredibly amount of irony in this. You take a currency that hardly anyone wants to use, so how do you make sure that people use it? You enlist the government and big banks. But wait, I thought big government and banks couldn't control Bitcoin? I thought that was the whole point! You mean to say Bitcoin adoption inevitably evolves into authoritarianism? WHAAAT?? You can see how this argument can end up in absurd circles with logical fallacy upon logical fallacy. But, let's say something like the scenario I wrote about above actually happens . Even in this circumstance, the government may simply end up buying a ton of Bitcoin for $1000 a piece (or lower). Depending on liquidity, this can finally push price above $100k. So, I guess I understand why Bitcoiners want to hold onto their coins no matter what. But will they hold on no matter the value? Even so, I think the above circumstance is unlikely. Bitcoin has broken its long term trend against traditional markets, as I wrote about here: As I've also pointed out, a currency with a fixed supply is not a great unit of exchange since it encourages hoarding and not spending. With this logic, it makes sense why Bitcoin price is decreasing rapidly in an inflationary environment - people are finally selling or spending it, and not buying it! This is because its value far exceeded the dollar over the last 10 years, so it's actually a GREAT currency....for those who bought early. Now, even those who bought at the 2017 bubble peak are merely around break-even, and at a loss if they bought Ethereum. This doesn't even take into account inflation. Here is my post where I outlined a speculative trajectory for the coming months. So far, so good. Now, if it fails to even attempt a bounce near these levels it'll probably look even worse than that. Nevertheless, there always exists a possibility counter to my bias. For instance, if Bitcoin can bounce hard here and clear the $37-42k resistance zone, then maintaining above $40k for many weeks, I may consider a longer term ranging market with some eventual upside. I do think there is somewhat of a chance we see some slow relief here with low volume throughout the rest of the Summer, into the fall. During this time, a select few altcoins would probably again pump and dump in a "last hurrah." This is why I have toyed with entering some small altcoin spot positions. Really, I can't help myself. It's the "I might as well" trade. Come on Bitcoin, let's just give the 200 week MA a chance! In the event of a recovery soon, I can see a media narrative where it is blamed on the FED's perceived inability to tame inflation (meaning that although it may not be true, the market expects no matter WHAT the interest rates are, inflation will still exist, so they YOLO everything back into assets because, well, we're irrational beings). Then, as interest rates continue higher, unemployment jumps, and markets begin their true multi-year decline into the next great depression. Inflation eventually drops, but by then markets are deep into a bear market and unemployment so high that few can buy stocks or other assets. Then, we get The New Deal, Part II. All fun (and scary) speculation of course! Thanks for sticking with me on this crazy ride! This is not meant as financial advice - it represents only my opinion and it is highly speculative. -Victor Cobra
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by VictorCobra
12
Bitcoin Moving Averages And Fractals This is just a quick update on Bitcoin. I will also include the Bitcoin/SPX chart in this post, simply because it continues to appear much weaker than BTC/USD, which I think is fundamentally significant - particularly with waning liquidity in crypto markets and the loss of broader appeal. In the above chart, you can see that Bitcoin is treading water above the 100 day Moving Average (yellow). It is also now finding resistance at the 50 day MA (red). The last time Bitcoin began to find resistance at the 50 after a major upswing, it ultimately broke down (circled in red). However, in September 2020 (circled in green), BTC ultimately continued holding the 100 day MA and began a new push to ATH prices. What happens here? If traditional markets continue to irrationally ignore the glaring credit bubble and other economic pressures, perhaps there will be enough liquidity for Bitcoin to push higher. However, as I mentioned, Bitcoin will need to start showing more strength when compared with traditional markets: Zoomed in: So far, it's really struggling at the 200 week MA (teal) against SPX. I won't go into any fundamentals on this post, though I really think that big drop off in volume on Binance since the last bottom is quite suspicious. This is mostly just a technical update. Thank you for reading - as always this is meant for speculation and entertainment only, not financial advice. -Victor Cobra
Short
by VictorCobra
2
Bearish Specter Haunts Bitcoin's ChannelHello dear TradingView followers and community! Today, the Bitcoin price is making a notable attempt to breach the support level of the Head & Shoulders pattern. Based on the height of the head, it is anticipated to potentially land in the range of 24,000 to 25,000, marking a decline of approximately -11.5%. Nevertheless, it's crucial to bear in mind that the price of Bitcoin has a reputation for delivering unexpected surprises, including bull and bear traps that can catch us off guard. Therefore, exercising caution in our current positions and refraining from engaging in risky trades is undoubtedly advisable. Best regards Artem Crypto
by ArShevelev
2
Bitcoin BTCUSDT Price analysis (4h)Greetings, fellow traders and esteemed members of the TradingView community! Today, let us delve into the 4-hour timeframe of BTCUSDT and explore the potential price direction for the upcoming days. From a meticulous technical analysis standpoint, we observe the price undergoing a breakout from a triangular pattern. This development may potentially trigger a significant downward movement, with a possible target of the 26675 level, which represents the last support level from the preceding uptrend. The MACD indicator diligently tracks the price action, providing valuable insights, yet it does not currently exhibit any major signs of a trend reversal. Additionally, the RSI, having accurately signalled a volatility spike preceding the breakdown of BTC price from the triangle, has further validated our earlier prediction: Pay close attention to the price action around the support level, as heightened selling pressure could potentially breach this level. However, should the support hold steadfast, it may present an attractive opportunity for long trades. Remember to employ prudent risk management techniques, such as setting appropriate stop-loss orders and adhering to your predetermined risk tolerance. By doing so, you can navigate the market with a greater sense of security and confidence. Stay vigilant, adapt to changing market conditions, and trade wisely. Wishing you successful and risk-managed trading endeavours!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Vestinda
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Potential Volatility SpikeHello dear TradingView community, it's Vestinda back again with an insightful analysis of Bitcoin's price movement. Today, we will delve into the current market conditions and identify key signals that may lead to an upcoming volatility spike. As always, our analysis aims to provide you with a positive and professional perspective on Bitcoin's price action. Price Structure and Triangle Pattern: On the daily timeframe , we can observe a fascinating price structure taking the form of a triangle. This pattern has been gradually forming, with the price converging towards the apex. Triangles are widely regarded as neutral price patterns, indicating that a breakout can occur in either direction. As traders, we must acknowledge the balanced nature of this pattern, assigning an equal probability of around 50% for both upward and downward breakouts. MACD Indicator: To gain further insights, let's turn our attention to the monthly timeframe and examine the Moving Average Convergence Divergence ( MACD ) indicator. Remarkably, this indicator is on the verge of a bullish crossover this month. The imminent bullish signal boosts the likelihood of an upward breakout from the triangle pattern. Considering this development, we can assign a conservative estimate of a 20% chance for an upward breakout, emphasizing the potential for positive price movement. RSI Indicator: Additionally, we have analyzed the 8-hour timeframe and closely observed the Relative Strength Index ( RSI ) indicator. It is noteworthy that the RSI perfectly mirrors the triangular shape of the price pattern. Such synchronization between price action and the RSI strongly suggests an increased probability of a volatility spike in the near future. This alignment provides further evidence to support the notion of an imminent breakout. Risk Management: While the prospects of Bitcoin's price movement appear promising, it is crucial to approach trading with a cautious mindset and implement effective risk management strategies. By setting appropriate stop-loss protections and managing risk, you can safeguard your capital and navigate the market confidently. Target Zones: Identifying potential target zones is essential for devising effective trading strategies. Currently, the significant support and resistance zones are situated between $22,000 — $ 24,000, and $ 32,000 — $ 34,000, respectively. These zones have historically displayed notable price reactions, making them crucial areas to monitor closely. Bitcoin's price analysis reveals a compelling narrative of an impending volatility spike. The triangle pattern, coupled with the MACD indicator's potential bullish crossover on the monthly timeframe, provides a positive outlook for Bitcoin's price. Additionally, the RSI indicator's correlation with the triangular shape further strengthens the case for increased volatility. However, it is imperative to exercise caution, employ risk management measures, and monitor critical support and resistance zones. By combining a positive mindset, professional analysis, and prudent trading practices, we can get impressive results! Stay tuned for further updates, and happy trading!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Vestinda
The Path to $100k Bitcoin in 2023 and $200k in 2024For those who still believe as I do, that we'll see new highs in the crypto markets sooner than later... Here's my purely speculative chart showing the 'Path to $100k Bitcoin' in 2023. It would be the perfect storm of economic forces coming together, and creating an unstoppable move higher. This scenario would be fueled by the following 3 things: 1. Hyperinflation & De-Dollarization as the World Reserve Currency 2. QE Money Printing To Pay Down US Debt & Avoid Defaulting 3. Bank Failures, Bank Runs & Transfer of Money Into Safe Assets The BRICS nations collective GDP's have already surpassed the GDP of NATO countries, and the Yuan is poised to replace the US dollar in the coming decade as the world reserve currency. For more on this, watch Ray Dalio's video on the 'Changing World Order' on Netflix. It's a year old, but it's already panning out as he predicted. As the world trades in Dollars for Yuan and other gold backed currencies, inflation will go up, just like Argentina is experiencing. And now the US is saying there's a very real risk of defaulting on our national debt, which obviously wouldn't be good. There's even some talk of minting the 'Trillion Coin' to essentially become our own FDIC, and to save the US Treasury. As we saw in the 2021 money post-pandemic money printing, the QE rallied risk-on markets, including and especially Bitcoin. The Third and final piece of the tri-fecta would be more bank failures, and possibly a commercial RE meltdown as some are saying the RE market is in another bubble, like in 2008. That's not including the commercial RE markets, which is the other shoe to drop. Sub-prime mortgages weren't the cause of the 2008 RE bubble, it was the rampant speculation and over leveraging. That's happening now, and it's a house of cards. So I think this is a possible scenario, and there's a non-zero chance this happens in the coming weeks and months. Worth noting. Maybe not, but it's possible. Once people realize their money isn't safe in banks, their retirement and wealth is dwindling due to hyperinflation, and the best option is moving their money into scarce assets, like Gold and Bitcoin... Then it's only a matter of time. I've also shown the fractal pattern from the 2020-2021 rally, which could be accelerated by the above even though we're not closer to the halving. Bob Loukas has also proposed this, a left skewed parabolic rise vs the normal 'Right' skewed pattern we're used to. Essentially, the big money flowing in early. I've also showed possible Fib extensions for how we could get to $155k and $200k BTC by early 2024. Interesting times.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BrettFogle
3
$BTC October 28th, 2022. Bold predictions.Here's my thesis.. Summer ends.. Diminishing Cycles.. Aka Diminishing bear markets..to the tune of 63.5% less.. based off previous bear phases which occurred directly after a 3D death cross.. 165 days of chop makes sense.. with a potential sweep of the lows once again.. and sprinkle in a 40% probability of a wick down to 12-14k .. Until then.. I think we chop sideways until October.. Parabolic bull phase resumes post 2024 election and halving with a 150k-160k USD target before topping out in November 2025. Sorry moon-boys, no million dollar target this decade. -- R.I.P. to my dear friend Andreas who passed on today at the young age of 34. --
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TheTraderAndy
2
Bitcoin Bottom SoonFrom the start, I thought 27k was unlikely to be a real bottom. And with real bottom I mean the bottom that would kickstart a new uptrend that would take Bitcoin back to 30k. So knowing that Bitcoin takes roughly 65 days to complete a daily cycle, the bottom of April 23 was not the real bottom. However, I believe that the next one is near. I expect it will happen around mid of May. Now at what prices can we expect that bottom? I think the worst case would be 25k. Because we're so close to the new bottom, timing the market at this point seems unwise. Especially if you do not have any Bitcoin yet.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by FetchTeam
BLX Still Shows A Broken Trend And Slower Growth For BitcoinZoomed in, you can see price is butting right up against that broken long term trendline, while the weekly oscillator is reaching the overbought zone. Price has also yet to reach the bottom of the curved channel (pink) The BLX chart is also mostly dominated by sell volume. Another odd thing to note is the enormous spike in volume on stablecoin traded pairs throughout the market turmoil, and specifically during the week of the SVB collapse. Even more perplexing is the huge drop off in volume as Bitcoin began to trade mostly sideways after that. Here's the Binance BTC/USDT chart as an example If Bitcoin is to touch the bottom of the curve on my BLX chart, we could see a retest of the $15.5k low at minimum. My guess is that Bitcoin will ultimately fall out of the growth curve and trend lower over time. I made a speculative downtrend channel, giving Bitcoin perhaps a few more weeks of sideways and a possible new failed high. Due to the nature of Bitcoin's support (in that it is essentially an idea), it is unlikely to drop instantly to zero, but instead trend lower and lower as people lose interest over time. Most still in the market seem to be bullish right now, already making projections for the next bull run. It's important to note that while SPX is still above 4000, Bitcoin is less than half of its all time high. Should traditional markets experience a more significant decline, I cannot imagine there would be enough liquidity to sustain another Bitcoin bull run. But....we live in strange times. It's perfectly possible that I'm completely off here. Nevertheless, I'm sticking to my view for fundamental reasons. If Bitcoin continues onwards to a new all time high, I don't think it'll be accompanied by anything good...though I suppose that's part of the bullish Bitcoin thesis :) As always, this is my opinion only and should not be taken as financial advice. This is meant for speculation and entertainment.
BNC:BLXShort
by VictorCobra
1
Will Bitcoin's Dive to $23k Ignite a Skyrocketing Comeback?At the moment, Bitcoin is testing a critical liquidity level that serves as support. Below the support level, there's a liquidity gap, which means that if the support doesn't hold, the price can drop quickly to lower liquidity levels. It's difficult to predict whether the support will hold or not, as we'll have to watch it unfold. Personally, I would like to see the price drop to the 23K - 25K range, with the RSI exiting the oversold territory. As a result, the market would cool down and potentially resume its growth towards the $35k - $38k levels.
Short
by Yaroslav_Krasko
2
Time To Take Profit (BTC/USD)Crypto moves in cycles. For example: Bitcoin happens to find a top each 4 years, meaning a complete Bitcoin cycle contains of roughly 208 weeks. In those 208 Bitcoin goes up and down, creating smaller daily cycles. Bitcoins daily cycle consists of approximately 65 days. In the bull market, which I believe we are, The tops of those daily cycles are found past the halfway point of the daily cycle. This means that a top is liklely after 34 days of climbing. We saw this in the previous cycle too. The cycle lasted for 70 days, on which the top was found at day 54. That cycle was right translated. The current cycle is at day 38. We saw a shooting star candle at day 35. Meaning that it is likely that a short term top is in. In case Bitcoin goes higher, it is unlikely it will break all the resistances above so taking the risk for more gains on the short term does not make lots of sense. Right now im short term bearish on Bitcoin. Note that the last green candle is an estimate of when a bottom can be found, not at what price.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by FetchTeam