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Bitcoinforecasting

Are you managing your risk properly on Bitcoin?Fellow Fools, traders, and crypto enthusiasts. I hope you read our last analysis on Bitcoin. We posted our last topic of “Are we going to get a pullback in BTC?” and quickly got a retrace back down to the $30,000 area. When pullbacks like this happen we want to address the question of, are you managing your risk properly? If you are currently panicking or concerned about this with this recent dip, the answer to that question is probably a “no”. At the present moment, our thesis is this. Stage 1 – The initial pullback (which we have already gotten) Stage 2 – BTC moves sideways as alt coin’s set up for larger rallies Stage 2 or 3 – The reason we have 2 different stages on here is that we could see BTC either move sideways or possibly dip further. A lot of the ALT coin charts have reached very oversold areas. IF all the altcoins rally and people take profits once that phase is completed while BTC is still moving sideways, we could see a sharp dip across the board in the crypto market. What this also does is it create’s a massive springboard for BTC to launch much higher from. Here are some examples of oversold coin charts in relation to BTC. Stage 4 – Acceleration Stage 5 – Profit-taking or Distribution Let’s examine why BTC could dip. Current signs of a Bearish Scenario: • Price is still very high, everyone is in profit • RSI showing divergence on the daily and is oversold on the weekly • The Dollar is currently at it’s low from 2018 and a rebound could cause BTC to tumble or stall • While there is institutional interest, it generally takes months for them to act, research, etc… A dip to $20,000 could happen if we form a “local” lower low. This would be the first indication that the Bears have the possibility of regaining control. We would be looking for slower and longer rebounds as buyer’s start to dry up. What happens after we get there is anyone’s guess but it would be the first sign that we could possibly retest the $20,000 area. Current sign of the Bullish scenario. • Lots of institutional interest • strong MACD and RSI • Money printing, a world in turmoil • During Bitcoin’s last run we saw subsequent retraces of 30% before the next rally, this could be just another fast retrace. Right now it’s possible if our stage 2 or stage 3 play out that we simply keep moving sideways from here until we start to ramp up again. There is enough institutional interest that this could happen. This means we would be in for a very choppy market over the coming months. The Good news. In either scenario that we outline, we believe that BTC is in for a substantial run through the end of the year unless something fundamentally changes. The question is. Are you managing your risk appropriately to manage the POTENTIAL downturn to $20,000 if we get one? Make sure you are. Until next time. TCF
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by ChartDudes
3
Bitcoin Following Projected $100k-300+ Target ChannelYeah I know it sucks for Bitcoin to drop so massively and destroy all short-term hopes for a continued uptrend without "downward disturbances". I anticipated the drop and predicted it on Jan. 7 Still it caught me off-guard and brings a bit of annoyance and call for patience. To the chart we go and let's check back with my Bitcoin channel prediction (see related idea). The prediction analysis can now be tested. The upper Bollinger Band has been breached downwards. So Bitcoin either is able to close above it or I would expect some more losses to -30% (~$29k) or -40% (~$25k) from the ATH (~$42k) In case Bitcoin closes above that swings momentum back and gives Bitcoin the opportunity to remain fully bullish the following weak. Best case scenario would be for Bitcoin to close at or above $38,2k end of this week. Then the 22$ drop was just a short lived "glitch". The path Bitcoin is taking also will give an indication to what stock-to-flow trend line it is following. Right now it would appear to be the 100k mid-May, which would indicate a quicker uptrend and a more parabolic move upwards starting mid-February and aiming at $300k. As we have suffered already a 20% loss in price I remain bullish and consider the current price level a welcome opportunity to average into Bitcoin. Be aware there is however an additional 20% price loss possible to keep some of your powder dry and make sure to put tight stop-loss orders in. ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by CarpeMomentum
Bitcoin $100k-300+ Target - Projecting 2021 Target and ChannelPossible Indicators / Patterns / Observations: Based on analysis of the 2013 and 2017 cycle (see my related ideas) I have drawn this prediction model based on the following assumptions. If too much text bothers you just jump to the crystal ball prediction section. Stock-to-Flow target of 100k will be reached and multiplied. The current trajectory is very high and even a 30% drop will not change the momentum. I can't see how Bitcoin would go sideways for weeks and ignore the hype and fair interest in Bitcoin which will be and is even higher then in 2017. That leaves us with finding the target for 2021 and when it will hit that target to predict a parabolic curve to orient ourselves (crystal ball). What can help us from here on out are for sure the Bollinger bands. The upper Bollinger band is a good indicator for Bitcoins path and also for knowing when prices will drop. Looking at the current inclination up of the Bollinger band that gives an indication for a possible path of Bitcoin. As in the 2013 and 2017 cycle Bitcoin hovered along the upper Bollinger band. First attempts for trend channel indicators: The $100k straight trend line (orange) towards mid-August 2021 seems "too-slow and low" for matching up with Bitcoins current hunger for pace. It may still serve as a lower channel boundary and maybe an ultimate support area. The $300k straight trend line (bright green) towards mid-August 2021 seems seems aligned with the trend of the Bollinger upper band. It may serve as a trend line until mid February 2021 along with the upper Bollinger band. If you compare with the 2013 and 2017 cycles the straight trend line to its ultimate new ATH (all-time high) was always above the price action. This gives reason to believe that $300k is a realistic target (until mid-August 2021). If Bitcoin goes clearly above it for let's says two weeks, then I would argue we are looking for a new ATH target higher then 300k. Now for getting the parabolic fiting (as the straight lines are not really helpful in a parabolic market): Drawing the forecast lines (blue parabolic lines) for $100k and $300k for August 2021 shows impressively that the August 2018 target can not be correct (unless of course market drops and moves sideways for a long time). Hence we can either adjust how fast we reach these targets for the target height itself (incl. timing of a higher target). I assume a 3 month faster cycle for the yellow forecast lines. One is for mid-May at $300k and the other at $100k. I also drew some lines for $450k target (yes I know mad) as it may well be possible that BTC reaches those. Please note that price volatilty potential will increase the higher Bitcoin rises. AND most important of all - DO NOT get stuck buying after the ATH (whenever it occurs) and sit and HODL for years to wait until Bitcoin is going to make new ATHs. Know when to exit and put in Stop-Loss orders accordingly. CRYSTAL BALL SECTION: All of the above considered and melted into a crystal ball: I predict Bitcoin will reach 300k and will do so by mid 2021. My prediction channel is marked as hurricane funnel with a marker. Bitcoin will hover along the 100k mid-May 201 straight trend line until about end of February 2021. Starting March 2021 we will see the full-fledge parabolic run-up to new ATH of 300k. Forgive me any typos or chart inaccuracies. I took the time to share this quickly as BTC is reaching for $40k already. ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by CarpeMomentum
2
Bitcoin 2013 Cycle Lessons Learned for Projecting 2021 TargetPossible Indicators / Patterns / Observations 1. It took BTC 7 month longer to reach its predicted March 2013 stock-to-flow target. It stayed also fairly close to that initial trajectory and then had a parabolic run up. 2. there was only one down trend and then a long (4 month) rather side ways movement 3. dropping below upper Bollinger band is a clear signal for downward trend shift Let me know if you would like more explanations. I tried to put the core of it into the chart. Basically the idea is what can we learn from the 2013 cycle as it is our only more reliable data point to look at. How did it behave towards the expectations towards reaching its stock-to-flow target and was it in the same time frame? Could we predict the parabolic curve Bitcoin will take in 2021 based on 2013? What indicators can we use to know when there are buy-in / sell signals? Please see also link to related idea for some more background. ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by CarpeMomentum
6
Bitcoin $100k-300+ Target - Watch out for rising volatilityBitcoin is clearly showing by it's path over the last 3 weeks where it is potentially heading and on what type of parabolic trajectory. If you project the last Bitcoin cycles growth after the breaking of the then all-time high (ATH) of $1.175 and reaching a peak at around $19.891 that makes a ~16.00% gain, so projected to breaking the ATH at $19.891 that gives a potential target for Bitcoin at $336.657 around mid-August 2021. If you then also take a look at the stock-to-flow model for Bitcoin you could derive another potential target at $100.000 around also mid-August. That give us two trend lines and a volatility channel to watch for and use The $300k upper trendline could be an indicator for resistance and the lower $100 target trend line a potential support level for each week. Please note the massive potential increase in volatility each week as the trend lines between $300k and $100k spread out. Prices can rise or drop in a range of 20k, then 3 weeks later 40k and so on. There is no guarantee (for anything) that Bitcoin will hover along on the upper trend line. And so far the initial pump buys above $30k maybe sending the wrong signals to some. Also be aware nobody! really knows what the target will be and influences or black swan events (compare with Corona price drop in Q1 or the SECs suit against Ripple) could occur in 2021. Bitcoin appears to be in the next complete madness cycles of ridiculous growth that pales all other asset classes. I have shifted my assets accordingly and am also (of course) closely watching alt coins. For now particular ETH and LTC. ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** * this is not financial advice, but my own personal opinion *
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by CarpeMomentum
BITCOIN Analysis 20204 years ago when I started to invest in Bitcoin at USD 4.000 I didn't have half the knowledge I have today but I could see price heading where it is today. Today I'm posting this here to check in the future in a horizon of 5-10 years and see how things will be developed. Any ideas are welcome to discussion, my only regret with Bitcoin is not buying in 2012 when I started following it and a friend always telling me to buy it. Well, it's never to late comparing to the stage we are in the world now. I will be waiting for my next buys and let's see how it rolls
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by LegionWolf
$4600 Bitcoin as 2021 low ? BTC/USD #Bitcoin $BTC #cryptoHere we see that huge pink and blue regression channel on our 3 day chart . You can see we have reliably remained in this channel since 2018 even through highs and lows. It seems until All Time High is breached above 20k that we will remain in it . That means we will revisit the bottom pink part of the band at some point . If that happened , for instance , next summer of 2021 it would line up perfectly with our bottom trendline ( that thin purple line ) and bring us a $4600 Bitcoin price next summer . You can see it on my chart where the orange B is . Also that area is roughly where our .236 fib is from our full fib . This is a great collection of different indicators that we will see a great price sometime next year . I believe the price could always wick a bit above or below there though , say from 4200 to 5800 but for sure we should see sub 6k and as long as we don't break below our 2019 low of 3150 we are still long-term bullish .Good things ahead !
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by shimmeringpath
6
Bitcoin Bullish TriangleCOINBASE:BTCUSD is bullish and here is why. On the hourly chart, we can spot a ascending triangle. We have a rising support line and a horizontal resistance/support zone on top. At first it looked like the triangle broke bearish. However, this turned out to be a false breakout and the price quickly rose to resistance. Bitcoin flirted with the resistance zone for about 60 hours before it finally broke trough. Right now it seems like Bitcoin is turning resistance into new support before it kicks off to our first target of 13k usd.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by VinanceYT
6900 Still the turning point guys!✴️ BTC Update What's new since yesterday, guys? Let's take a look at BTC! Last time we analyzed Bitcoin, it was around $6,350. It's now at 6436 after hitting a high of 6650. The daily technical situation that went negative again yesterday gave a buy signal on the WaveTrend again. The 4h technical situation remains positive for the moment and we can see signs of bullish curvature on the 1h timeframe indicators. 📈 Trend follower? Negative in the daily horizon and positive in 1h and 4h. 👉 What can I do? We notice that the BTC is approaching the upper bound of its Kumo, if the latter is broken it will still remain the same resistance zone of the 6900. As long as this zone is not broken, we will not consider opening a long position. If the BTC fails to break through this zone once again, a short position can be opened. This is because the technical indicators on the daily horizon are starting to approach their overbought zone and another failure under resistance could trigger a longer-term downtrend phase. 💹 Altcoins No real trend on the whole market with a balance maintained between the alts that are rising and the alts that are falling in value. Stay safe guys! Enjoy our analysis! Your 4C-Trading Team 💚
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by ArnJuDQ
BTC getting a little lazy? Either 8500 or 6000...BTC has been rotating in a range between 7500 and 6500 for the past two months which leaves neutral traders with an unbiased position above or below two levels. It could go one of two ways and there is both a bear and bull case to be made. The bull case, a little less likely it would see is that BTC creates a triple bottom at 6665-6700 and rebounds. It will have to make a move through the 7500 level and into the 8000 level should the upside come in on strong volume. So far volume has been pretty weak on both ends but mainly to the downside. The bear case, which is a little more likely we suspect, due to the fact that price action is forming lower highs and lower lows. There's a chance it fails because each time price dropped into the 6500-6600 support level price was quickly bought up on decent volume. However, the 7500 resistance level is still holding extremely well. Should price break the 6500 level as its coming into now, then we stand a high chance to see 6000. This idea is for educational purposes only, this does not constitute as investment or trading advice. TRADEPRO Academy is not responsible for market activity.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TRADEPROAcademy
1
Dragononcrypto 3 Month Graphical ReviewIn order to promote accountability and transparency, here is a collation of all the BTC/USD calls I have made in the past 3 months. Note that some where on smaller time frames than the Daily (that is used in this graphic), such as the 1hr and 4hr, but otherwise remain relevant to the review. Bitcoin Repeating History: 10 Part TA Series On Repeating Past Patterns Full series with recent updates: bitcointalk.org Technical Analysis Highlights September-December 2019 Measuring The Move of the Descending Triangle Breakdown If 2017 Descending Triangle Repeats? Best Case Scenario Extrapolating the 50 & 200 Day MA bear crosses Extrapolating 2014 Correction - Could $6,500 Be The Low? Two & Four Year MA's Claim It's Time To Accumulate Miner Capitulation Is Here... Back Down To $3,800? TD Sequential 9 Next Week To Decide Direction? Another Bearish Bitcoin Indicator: 200 EMA & MA Bearcross If Bitcoin Repeats History? Extrapolating 2012 Breakdown A repeat of 2014? Worst Case Scenario A $2,500 Low If Bitcoin Repeats History? Descending Triangle Looking Similar
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by dragononcrypto
BITCOIN, The last two supportsBITCOIN, It may still fall on the last two supports Today all the main media available to bitcoins have been violated and we are in the area of potential purchase by buyers. I believe that in any case, given the large shaded volumes and the sudden collapses, we have slowed down the spirits. The current correction seems to depend on small purchases, whales must always come in and there are only two remaining supports. Historians. The trend would be in line with the end of the life cycle close to the next halving scheduled for early May. From there, the value for cyclical logics should return to growth. We'll see. Main support 1: 5727 USD Secondary support 2: 4111 USD
Short
by gabrielestampa
BTC Almost ready to buy.Did everyone make sure to NOT buy earlier when most believed we were in a bullish flag? I hope so...I sometimes wish my post reached more people but this is where my followers come in. Please. If you know someone having a hard time tell them to review my charts and understand how BTC and trading overall works. Always refer to fibs as your discount rate. Would you rather have a 50% discount or a 100% ? 88? maybe 127% Let me clue you in on the biggest secret. Markets love to turn at a 20/20 vision. Meaning Turns at 127% are the most common as well as 88% because big boys want at minimum 80% discount for their purchases. If you need help learning how to apply rules to find direction just msg me. I don't charge what can be found for free online. But I am thinking of doing a $5 a month signal group to inform people of when prices are in a certain zone. I have helped a lot of people recover lost cash from investing too early as well as helped put people into a break even alternative. If you would take signals for $5 a month from me would you? How has your trading been does my charts help you in determining your entry price? As always be safe, manage risk, and comment and like for support! Peace. Love. Trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by AschraM
11