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Bitcoinfundamentals

Rising Wedge!!!Another bearish pattern is in the charts right now which already broken down and currently retesting it so it does make a confluence that we might see some more downside action in the price of Bitcoin, however recently the onchain data shows that 2billion dollars worth of BTC just took off from exchanges, So for that reason it does seems like we might see a relief rally type of scenario, Although if this pattern plays out perfectly the target would be $31,110.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by BeardBoyCrypto
2
BTC head down#BTCUSD TA : you can see descending supports and resistances in daily chart, $BTC is near resistance and technically price should come down to touch the support. the yellow line is now supporting , a break down from this line can make the price head down toward $30k that is a Psychological support and then $26300 and $23500. The Grayscale Bitcoin Fund (GBTC) is due to release in excess of 40,000 BTC in the coming weeks, this having been subject to a six-month lock-up period. Opinions differ about its market impact. Some are concerned that selling pressure will increase (only to then become practically zero after the unlockings are over), while others argue that spot markets will be broadly unaffected. Sunday, July 18, is of particular interest, with that day’s unlocking worth just over 16,000 BTC.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by parissap
Bitcoin Mid- to Long-term analysis + Short-term bearish swing.Bitcoin ( BITSTAMP:BTCUSD ) has been one of the trickiest assets to forecast, until institutions hopped on, and now it's THE trickiest asset to forecast. So I will give my take on it and the factors I'm considering for my mid to long term analysis. I also give a short-term forecast. But since that can change very quickly, keep following this idea for updates. I would like to thank my followers. In less than a month, I went from 4 to 50 followers, and I hope I can provide you quality analysis and discussions. Thanks to all of you. First I will point out that I am bullish on Bitcoin long-term. I believe it can easily touch $200k during this year. I am, however, expecting a correction of about 50% to 60% from the all-time-high in the short-term. Just the usual Bitcoin behaviour, nothing big. The chart shows a possible scenario that looks neat on my chart. Bitcoin, however, has its own way of looking neat. The path I drew is too long to be accurate, so don't take it as a strict guide, but rather to help you identify points of support and reversal. Now let's get to the analysis. One new factor that was absent from the Bitcoin space is institutions, government and regulatory bodies that have recently joined in on the action. Paypal, Square and others are buying big amounts of Bitcoin. The SEC just started prosecuting Ripple, finally! And Tether keeps creating virtual currency, perhaps trying to compete with the Federal Reserve. Anyway, let's dive into each of these: Paypal: Paypal started selling Bitcoin in Oct 2020 to customers in the US. And they are planning to expand internationally soon. Paypal does not allow withdrawal of Bitcoin from their system. You can only buy, keep it there, and sell. Paypal will keep buying Bitcoin as long as they are anticipating demand from their customers. Similarly, they will sell their Bitcoin when customers are selling. They are not interested in taking a position in Bitcoin, neither short nor long. Paypal have to buy and sell over the counter (OTC), and probably in large chunks. That activity does not reflect on the open markets except after a delay. That is called delayed price discovery. Suppose that Paypal bought a large chunk. Then, open markets would suddenly discover after a while that that large chunk of Bitcoin has been removed from circulation. This leads to a sudden spike in price. Likewise, when Paypal sells, some while later, a big sudden plunge occurs. That is how delayed price discovery causes volatility. This demand from customers can be hard to anticipate and can go out of control, especially after Paypal expands its Bitcoin offering internationally. This mean that Paypal will find themselves forced to take a position in Bitcoin. They will have to bet on one direction or the other. Paypal would certainly not like volatility in their balance sheets. They could choose to suspend the service at any time which will create more volatility. They could choose to convert customers' balances from bitcoins to USD at any time and either keep the bitcoin for themselves or sell all of it, creating a huge move in the market, depending on their decision. Keeping it might not necessarily mean it goes up. In short: Paypal will create volatility in Bitcoin , as if that's what we've been missing! Regulation: Almost all Bitcoin gateways are asking for KYC, even individual sellers do, and they even proof of ownership of the Bitcoin wallet. Coinbase already blew any hope of protecting your privacy. They would simply give away information to government whenever requested. It's becoming harder and harder to keep your ownership of Bitcoin private. Paypal not allowing Bitcoin withdrawals is also regulation, and I suspect that it either stems out of Paypal trying to adhere to existing government policy or it is a smart move by Paypal to attract government cooperation and support. The reason I say this is.. imagine this: People can now buy Bitcoin. They can fulfil their curiosity, their investment desires, but at the same time, they cannot withdraw Bitcoins out of the Paypal system. This means that control is in the hands of Paypal. The government would love that. Everything is monitored. No more threats of money laundering, black market trades or siphoning funds to unwanted parties. All of this will keep Bitcoin long-time hodlers to keep hodling. The increase of regulation and the restriction of freedom simply creates incentives for hodling and buying, not selling. In short: Regulation adds value and demand to Bitcoin, not the opposite. Tether: Tether have always been under suspicion of minting more of their virtual currency without real USD cover. They were subpoenaed before and they are always in danger of an SEC crackdown. If an SEC crackdown or any kind of government legal action does occur, the value of Tether currency will fall to the ground. Why? Because people will be selling. And how do you sell Tether? There is no other way except buying Bitcoin or some altcoin with your Tether, which means that all the market cap of Tether will move towards the crypto market, and mostly to Bitcoin of course. In short: Tether crashing will cause a huge rise in the price of Bitcoin, not a crash. Summary of Fundamental Analysis: Bitcoin will remain volatile even after adoption by institutions. Bitcoin is long-term going up, not down. The Short-term Bearish Swing: I expect Bitcoin to retest the Dec 2017 high of around $20k. The sooner it happens the better, because we won't need to worry about it afterwards. I've drawn a path that delineates one point of resistance and three points of support. I drew it a few hours ago when Bitcoin was still at $34870. So far, it has gone up following my path. I know that doesn't count, but if the rest of the path doesn't work, then I hope I can get credit for the first few hours of it XD. Keep watching my updates on this idea as I adjust my short-term view as Bitcoin proves me wrong short-term. And let's hope in the next few hours, it does respect my resistance point. What I'm sure of is that Bitcoin will be volatile, there will be many false breakouts and bull traps, and that $20k is not too low for it to hit in the coming month. What you should do in this case is buy the dips and hold. There are two methods of setting up orders on expected points of support. Say we have three points of support where we expect to catch a dip. The first method is equal division, i.e. to divide the capital you are willing to invest into three equal portions, and buy with each portion as price hits your dip target. The second method, which I favor, is bigger orders as you go lower. This way, you don't miss a buy if it turns out that a higher support was the reversal point, and at the same time, if it does reach your expected bottom, then your average buying price is affected the most by the bottommost buy lowering it more than when using the first method. Summary: Dollar-cost-average, Hodl, and stay safe :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TechNerdOmar
4
BTC Weekly Outlook (FA&TA)“You are a child of the Universe, no less than the trees and the stars; you have a right to be here. And whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the Universe is unfolding as it should”. ---- Max Ehrmann Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: The on-chain smart money indicator gave out accumulation signals. This indicates smart money has been accumulating during the past few weeks despite the price drop from 12k, and further indicates a strong support at 10k. This is a bullish sign for Q4. Price generally goes into a bullish trend when on-chain smart money accumulation is found. Can we drop in the short-term at all? If so, does that mean smart money made a dumb decision? Yes, then no. In Nov 2018, smart money accumulation is spotted at 6k, and price dropped to 3k in the next 2 months with more accumulation happening. While the BTC accumulated at 6k took an almost 50% loss, price soon rose to 12k+, generating a 2x. Grayscale: raised $900M in Q2 (its ATH quarter since inception). Even though $900M is not significant when compared to the mkt cap, it does indicate a switch in accredited/institutional investors’ view on the crypto space – where the money comes from to push the next ATH. We’ll keep an eye out for Q3 stats. China’s financial channel, cctv-2, claimed crypto as the best performing asset class of 2020 last week. Since the channel is strictly controlled by the Chinese government, the fact that such news is reported shows a potential loosening on crypto regulations in China. This is consistent with the Chinese central bank’s crypto experiments. 2. Miner action: BTC mining difficulty is now 10x higher than that of end of 2017. This means, firstly, the security of the bitcoin network is improving significantly despite the price decrease compared to the 2017 20k ATH. Secondly, miners are profiting ever since the March capitulation, and more miners are joining the game at the current price level (the 11%+ difficulty adjustment was made in September). 3. Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment is now neutral. For the seller group sentiment, this group remains in a bull trend. With the short-term drop to 10.3-10.5k (what I expect), another “decr. in supply” alert will likely occur. These have been generating great R:R setups and returns. Bull trend means buying the dips. 4. Margin & Futures Market Actions: Daily chart speaking, the margin market has been on the bearish side since the drop to 10k. This means, despite some short-term drop potential, the chance of us dropping to 9k this week is low. Periods of overly bullish/bearish sentiments have been marked out in the chart above. Prolonged overly bullish = price drop; prolonged overly bearish = price rise. For the shorter term, BTC sentiment is bullish. If we continue to rise to 10.8k, the sentiment will likely be overly bullish, and I expect a bearish pressure in the next 48hrs. As for the CME institutional traders’ positions, things are getting less clear. Out of all of the other bullish indications, this is one of the few metrics that explains a more bearish scenario. However, I wouldn’t worry about this metric yet until this week’s data release on Friday. If we have another down tick, then it might be time to lighten up some mid-term long positions. 5. Global Market Impacts: To ease the COVID impacts, the Fed is using all means to boost the economy, which means a continued rise in inflation. This will fundamentally push up the value of gold, bringing up bitcoin along the way as the main value proposition of bitcoin remains store of value rather than remittance. 6. CME Gap: Currently, there’s a $200 CME gap from $10.5k. This is bearish for the short-term. I’m interested in longing after this gap’s filled. Key Technicals: 1. Short-term Resistance at 11.3k, 11.9k. Support at 10.3 – 10.5k. Another support below at 9.6k. 2. Elliot wave: see chart above. 3. RSI bullish: Daily RSI looks bullish. Bull trend support (40) held, and we are potentially finding support above RSI’s MAs. Potential MA up-cross soon. 4. MACD neutral: 1D up-crossed from the negative side, but with the sideway consolidation, MACD is not giving clear signs. Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed! ==================================================== 🌐 We believe in the power of blockchain data analysis! ====================================================
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Phi-Deltalytics
30
BTC Weekly Outlook (FA&TA)“You are a child of the Universe, no less than the trees and the stars; you have a right to be here. And whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the Universe is unfolding as it should”. ---- Max Ehrmann Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level and are higher than the July level when we had the 10k break out. This not only is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs, but also indicates a strong support at 10k. Grayscale: raised $900M in Q2 (its ATH quarter since inception). Even though $900M is not significant when compared to the mkt cap, it does indicate a switch in accredited/institutional investors’ view on the crypto space – where the money comes from to push the next ATH. We’ll keep an eye out for Q3 stats. China’s financial channel, cctv-2, claimed crypto as the best performing asset class of 2020 this week. Since the channel is strictly controlled by the Chinese government, the fact that such news is reported shows a potential loosening on crypto regulations in China. This is consistent with the Chinese CB crypto experiments. 2. Miner action: Last week, BTC mining difficulty just got adjusted to its all time high with an 11.35% increase, 10x higher than that of end of 2017. This means, firstly, the security of the bitcoin network is improving significantly despite the price decrease compared to the 2017 20k ATH. Secondly, miners are profiting ever since the March capitulation, and more miners are joining the game at the current price level. 3. Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment is now neutral. For the seller group sentiment, this group remains in a bull trend. If we drop to the 10k level again this week, another “decr. in supply” alert will likely occur. These have been generating great R:R setups and returns. Bull trend means buying the dips. 4. Margin & Futures Market Actions: Daily chart speaking, the margin market has been on the bearish side since the drop to 10k. This means, despite some short-term drop potential, the chance of us dropping to 9k this week is low. Periods of overly bullish/bearish sentiments have been marked out in the chart above. You can make your own judgements. Prolonged overly bearish sentiment is the textbook scenario to initiate upward momentum. This is THE most important factor to pay attention to during the next 7 days given the current complex EW situation. I’ll keep on posting status updates twice a day to cover this. As for the CME institutional traders’ positions, not much has changed this week and the trend remains bullish. Do note CME positions are for futures, and thus acts as a leading indicator rather than a coincident indicator. In early bull runs (and when there’s still time to the future maturity), it’s also in the whales’ interest to push the price down, lowering average cost. 5. Global Market Impacts: To ease the COVID impacts, the Fed is using all means to boost the economy, which means a continued rise in inflation. This will fundamentally push up the value of gold, bringing up bitcoin along the way as the main value proposition of bitcoin remains store of value rather than remittance. 6. CME Gap: The weekend gap has already been filled. Funny how the market moved up from $10.6k after we posted the status update yesterday for potential upward momentum. Anyways, hope some of you got on board. Key Technicals: 1. Short-term Resistance at 11.3k, 11.9k. Support at 10-10.3k. 2. Elliot wave: likely in a flat structure (A-B-C). Out of 1-5 & A-C, B is always the most complex wave. And now, we are potentially in (b) of B. Soooo, many alternative counts. To simplify matters, watch out for the diagonal red resistance. If we break above it, we’ll likely first test 11.3k, then 11.9k. If not, we’ll likely be consolidating between this resistance and 10k this week. There’s a potential that A is still in development, with wave 4 developing. However, if that’s the case, we’ll still likely be range bound between 10k and 11.3k for the week ahead. 3. RSI bullish: Daily RSI looks bullish. Bull trend support (40) held, and we are potentially finding support above RSI’s MAs. Potential MA up-cross soon. 4. MACD bullish: 1D up-crossed from the negative side. MACD will turn positive soon with a potential price EMA up-cross. Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed! ==================================================== 🌐 We believe in the power of blockchain data analysis! ====================================================
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Phi-Deltalytics
50
BTC Weekly Outlook (FA&TA)Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level and are higher than the July level when we had the 10k break out. This not only is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs, but also indicates a strong support at 10k. Institutional investors showed picked up interest in the crypto space as Grayscale raised $900M in Q2 (its ATH quarter since inception). The $900M won’t be available for exiting until at least October 1st this year. And small likelihood that this group will exit at all. Yes, $900M is not significant when compared to the mkt cap (let’s put aside the whole thing about how BTC mkt cap is inflated, for now). However, it does indicate a switch in accredited/institutional investors’ view on the crypto space – where the money comes from to push the next ATH. Also, large players are accumulating off-chain. #MircroStrategy. 2. Miner action: BTC mining difficulty just got adjusted to its all time high with an 11.35% increase, 10x higher than that of end of 2017. This means, firstly, the security of the bitcoin network is improving significantly despite the price decrease compared to the 2017 20k ATH. Secondly, miners are profiting ever since the March capitulation, and more miners are joining the game at the current price level. 3. Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment is now neutral. For the seller group sentiment, this group remains in a bull trend. As mentioned last week (when we were at the 10k level), 10k dropped below the actively trading group’s purchase price, which yielded a great R:R setup for the long side (decrease in willingness to sell, leading to a decrease in supply, which will ultimately increase price). In the coming week, we might have a similar situation soon. The level to watch out for is around 10.1k. If we drop below that level, the red star situation will likely occur, switching us to a temporary short-term bear trend (active group selling in loss). However, probability speaking, I would say the chance of the red star situation is slim, and buying the dips is the priority. 4. Margin & Futures Market Actions: Currently, the margin market is bearish, with low open interest. In simpler terms, most traders don’t believe BTC price will make new highs before dropping below 10k. Well, this is the textbook scenario for prior early bull run BTC price rises. When will the rise happen? When more traders put the money to the bearish game. Bull run emotional cycle: depression, disbelief, hope, optimism, belief, excitement, thrill, greed, euphoria. Take your pick of where we are at right now. As for the CME institutional traders’ positions, not much has changed this week and the trend remains bullish. Do note CME positions are for futures, and thus acts as a leading indicator rather than a coincident indicator. In early bull runs (and when there’s still time to the future maturity), it’s also in the whales’ interest to push the price down, lowering average cost. Check out the March resemblance. Similar occurrence for the 6k to 3k drop (but less CME oriented). 5. Global Market Impacts: To ease the COVID impacts, the Fed is using all means to boost the economy, which means a continued rise in inflation. This will fundamentally push up the value of gold, bringing up bitcoin along the way as the main value proposition of bitcoin remains store of value rather than remittance. 6. CME Gap: The weekend gap has already been filled. Also, as mentioned many times before, I would ignore the $300 gap open on 7/25. After such a long time, the gap filling (big if here) will be more of a result of general market movements rather than the cause. Many are now aware of this opened gap, but the problem is the more people getting onboard means the less likelihood of an event happening. Key Technicals: 1. Short-term Resistance at 11.3k. Support at 10.5-10.65k. The key level to watch out for is 10.1k. If we drop below this level, the short-term trend will likely turn bearish. 2. Elliot wave: wave (ii) of III likely over at this point. Wave (ii) as a zigzag. Wave (iii) in development. We are potentially done with wave 1 of (iii). Details see the chart above. An alternative short-term EW count for now is: (4) is still developing. (5) to 11.3-11.4k. Regardless, the short-term ideal accumulation zone should be similar. I would target 0.382-0.5 Fib retracement rather than the 0.618 level, given the bullish trend. 3. RSI bullish: Daily RSI looks beautifully bullish. Bull trend support (40) held, and we are finding support above RSI’s MAs. Potential MA up-cross soon. 4. MACD bullish: 1D up-crossed from the negative side. MACD will turn positive soon with a potential price EMA up-cross. Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed! ============================================= 🌐 We believe in the power of blockchain data analysis! ==============================================
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Phi-Deltalytics
81
BTC Weekly Outlook (FA&TA)Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level and are higher than the July level when we had the 10k break out. This not only is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs, but also indicates a strong support at 10k. Institutional investors showed picked up interest in the crypto space as Grayscale raised $900M in Q2 (its ATH quarter since inception). The $900M won’t be available for exiting until at least October 1st this year. And small likelihood that this group will exit at all. Yes, $900M is not significant when compared to the mkt cap (let’s put aside the whole thing about how BTC mkt cap is inflated, for now). However, it does indicate a switch in accredited/institutional investors’ view on the crypto space – where the money comes from to push the next ATH. 2. Miner action: Both hash rate and difficulty have recovered, and miner capitulation has ended. With miner capitulation historically marking market bottoms, this is a bullish long-term sign. 3. Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment is now overly bearish. For the seller group sentiment, this group remains in a bull trend, but the current price has already slightly dropped below the actively trading group’s purchase price. This means a decrease in willingness to sell, leading to a decrease in supply, which will ultimately increase price. Assuming bull market, we are in the golden accumulation zone. The black stars in the chart above indicate the past incidents when the price gets close to the active group’s purchase price. These were overall great swing trading entries with fairly good R:R setups. The trend will switch to the bear side indicating an exit once the price drops further from these areas. 4. Margin & Futures Market Actions: Currently, the margin market is overly bearish (across different exchanges, see chart below), and open interest is picking up. This indicates another short-term long scalp opportunity. As for the CME institutional traders’ positions, the trend remains bullish. Do note CME positions are for futures, and thus acts as a leading indicator rather than a coincident indicator. In early bull runs (and when there’s still time to the future maturity), it’s also in the whales’ interest to push the price down, lowering average cost. Check out the March resemblance. Similar occurrence for the 6k to 3k drop (but less CME oriented). 5. Global Market Impacts: To ease the COVID impacts, the Fed is using all means to boost the economy, which means a continued rise in inflation. This will fundamentally push up the value of gold, bringing up bitcoin along the way as the main value proposition of bitcoin remains store of value rather than remittance. 6. CME Gap: 90% of historical BTC CME gaps get filled sooner or later (generally created by weekend BTC movements when the CME’s closed). Yes, we still have a $300 gap open on 7/25. However, after such a long time, the gap filling (big if here) will be more of a result of general market movements rather than the cause. Many are now aware and talking about this opened gap, but the problem is the more people getting onboard means the less likelihood of the event happening. Key Technicals: 1. Resistance at 11.3k. Support at 9.8-9.9k (If we drop below here, trend will likely turn bearish). Nothing new this week. 2. Elliot wave: wave (ii) of III potentially over at this point. Wave (ii) as a zigzag. BTC doesn’t tend to rise in a steep line after a sharp drop, so we’ll likely consolidate for a while. 3. RSI neutral: As expected last week, we attempted at the MAs, leading to a bullish week. Currently, I don’t think much could be said about the daily RSI. It’s failing the MAs but finding support around 40 – bull market support. 4. MACD bullish: potential up-cross from the negative side soon. Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!
Editors' picks
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Phi-Deltalytics
93
BTC Weekly Outlook (FA&TA)First of all, please support our work by smashing that like button or following! These really help us to reach more traders like you! Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level. This is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs. Institutional investors showed picked up interest in the crypto space as Grayscale raised $900M in Q2 (its ATH quarter since inception). The $900M won’t be available for exiting until at least October 1st this year. 2. Miner action: Both hash rate and difficulty have recovered, and miner capitulation has ended. With miner capitulation historically marking market bottoms, this is a bullish long-term sign. 3. Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment is now neutral. For the seller group sentiment, this group remains in a bull trend. The decrease in seller group supply alert was present throughout the past week (meaning price is getting close to this group’s purchase price, leading to a decrease in willingness to sell, leading to a decrease in supply, which increases price when the demand maintains a similar or higher level). In short, long-term speaking, 11k – 11.5k is the dip. 4. Margin Market Actions: Potential short squeeze alert in place on 8/26. This is a short-term bullish sign. The CME institutional traders’ significant increase in long positions last week is crucial. After 3 months of indecisiveness (since 10k), it seems like institutional traders have finally made up their minds that we are in a bull trend and have further upward potential. With such strong reactions to 11k - 11.3k, the chance of 12k being broken is extremely high in the coming month or so. 5. Global Market Impact: To ease the COVID impacts, the Fed is using all means to boost the economy, which means a continued rise in inflation. This will fundamentally push up the value of gold, bringing up bitcoin along the way as the main value proposition of bitcoin remains store of value rather than remittance. For the SPX correlation, as mentioned many times before. I think major SPX correction will bring down crypto, while smaller ones won’t. So will we have a major SPX correction soon? Personally, I think the answer is no. Q2 numbers didn’t cause much of a market impact. What this means is the current price level already has the negative COVID impact priced in. The market runs on expectations rather than actuals. 6. CME Gap 90% of historical BTC CME gaps get filled sooner or later (generally created by weekend BTC movements when the CME’s closed). Yes, we still have a $300 gap open on 7/25. However, after such a long time, the gap filling (big if here) will be more of a result of general market movements rather than the cause. The current gap is a $200 gap from 11.5k. Since these gaps tend to be filled, it's better to take profit for long scalping positions now and reenter around 11.5k. For swings, the 2% may not be worth playing given fees and the chance of missing out the larger move. I can't emphasize this enough - we are in a bull run -> adjust risk management accordingly! Key Technicals: 1. Major resistance at 12k. Support at 11k. 2. Elliot wave: likely in wave 2 of 3. However, corrective waves are complex, and several counts are all possible at this point. I’ll share the detailed count once the picture gets clearer. Check out the blue box in the chart. 3. RSI neutral: Failing the RSI MAs but already found support around RSI 47 - historical bull market support for BTC Daily time frame. 4. MACD neutral: Likely up-cross on the positive side soon. Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed! ==================================================== 🌐 We believe in the power of blockchain data analysis! ====================================================
Editors' picks
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Phi-Deltalytics
89
BTC Weekly Outlook (FA&TA)First of all, please support our work by smashing that like button or following! These really help us to reach more traders like you! Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level. This is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs. Institutional investors showed picked up interest in the crypto space as Grayscale raised $900M in Q2 (its ATH quarter since inception). The $900M won’t be available for exiting until at least October 1st this year. And small likelihood that this group will exit at all. (Thanks to NxjaUNHaCucnyxaB’s insightful comment last week.) 2. Miner action: Both hash rate and difficulty have recovered, and miner capitulation has ended. With miner capitulation historically marking market bottoms, this is a bullish long-term sign. 3. Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment is now neutral to overly bearish. For the seller group sentiment, this group remains in a bull trend, but the current price has already slightly dropped below the actively trading group’s purchase price. This means a decrease in willingness to sell, leading to a decrease in supply, which will ultimately increase price. Assuming bull market, we are in the golden accumulation zone. (Note: The R:R for betting trend changes simply doesn’t appeal to me. Yes, you can bet it every time and never miss a large movement, but you also need to deal with the 30-40% win rate and high operational/execution risks.) 4. Margin & Futures Market Actions: A ridiculous amount of longs were present at the 11.5k level, and a "likely long squeeze alert" appeared before the drop to 10k. Currently, the margin market is overly bearish, but not enough people is on board with the “bearishness” so we do need the open interest to pick up a bit to fuel an ideal short squeeze. As for the CME institutional traders’ positions, last week’s drop doesn’t impact this group turning bullish after 3 months of indecisiveness. The position is for futures, and thus acts as a leading indicator rather than a coincident indicator. Check out the March resemblance. 5. Global Market Impacts: To ease the COVID impacts, the Fed is using all means to boost the economy, which means a continued rise in inflation. This will fundamentally push up the value of gold, bringing up bitcoin along the way as the main value proposition of bitcoin remains store of value rather than remittance. 6. CME Gap 90% of historical BTC CME gaps get filled sooner or later (generally created by weekend BTC movements when the CME’s closed). Yes, we still have a $300 gap open on 7/25 from 9.6k to 9.9k. However, after such a long time, the gap filling (big if here) will be more of a result of general market movements rather than the cause. Key Technicals: 1. Resistance at 11.3k. Support at 9.8-9.9k (If we drop below this level, trend will likely turn bearish). 2. Elliot wave: likely in wave (ii) of III. Wave (ii) currently counted as a zigzag and is potentially finished. 3. RSI neutral to bearish: Failing the RSI MAs and in a bearish trend. However, for the short-term, an upward attempt at the MAs is needed. Meaning I'm leaning bullish for the week ahead. 4. MACD bearish: In bearish trend. No sign of up-cross yet. Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Phi-Deltalytics
79
BTC Weekly Outlook (FA&TA)First of all, please support our work by smashing that like button or following! These really help us to reach more traders like you! Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level. This is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs. Institutional investors showed picked up interest in the crypto space as Grayscale raised $900M in Q2 (its ATH quarter since inception). The $900M won’t be available for exiting until at least October 1st this year. 2. Miner action: Both hash rate and difficulty have recovered, and miner capitulation has ended. With miner capitulation historically marking market bottoms, this is a bullish long-term sign. 3. Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment is now neutral after being overly bullish last week. For the seller group sentiment, this group remains in a bull trend but the current price is getting close to this group’s purchase price. This means, soon, we will see a decrease in supply from the current group of active traders. The ideal accumulation zone is around 10.5-11k. 4. Margin Market Actions: Potential short squeeze alert (short-term) in place on 8/22. However, kind of exhausted at this point. The CME institutional traders’ significant increase in short positions put us back in an institutional bear trend (do keep in mind institutions trade differently from retails, and exit at wave 3s rather than wave 5s --> liquidity!), and potentially indicate a further cool down to 11k. 5. SPX correlation I don’t think SPX is going to experience a major correction anytime soon. Q2 numbers didn’t cause much of a market impact. What this means is the current price level already has the negative COVID impact priced in. The market runs on expectations rather than actuals. 6. CME Gap 90% of historical BTC CME gaps get filled sooner or later (generally created by weekend BTC movements when the CME’s closed). Yes, we still have a $300 gap open on 7/25. However, after such a long time, the gap filling (big if here) will be more of a result of general market movements rather than the cause. Key Technicals: 1. Key support at 10.5k and 9k. 2. 5 Elliot wave to the upside likely finished 3. RSI bearish: Potentially failing MA & resistance at 60 with RSI bearish divergence 4. MACD bearish: MACD bearish divergence No sign of histogram up tick yet Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Phi-Deltalytics
52
BTC Weekly Outlook (FA&TA)First of all, please support our work by smashing that like button or following! These really help us to reach more traders like you! Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level. This is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs. Institutional investors showed picked up interest in the crypto space as Grayscale raised $900M in Q2 (its ATH quarter since inception). For the short-term, institutional traders on CME is finding support at 11k. 2. Miner action: Both hash rate and difficulty have recovered, and miner capitulation has ended. With miner capitulation historically marking market bottoms, this is a bullish long-term sign. 3. Market Sentiment (on-chain): Overall on-chain market sentiment is still overstretched, and a sentiment calm down is needed. For the seller group sentiment, this group is still selling in profit and remains in a bull trend. Buying the dip is simple in this type of market: wait for the price approaching seller group purchasing price à decrease in supply à increase price. 4. Margin Market Actions: Not much confirmed obvious bias yet. 5. SPX correlation I don’t think SPX is going to experience a major correction anytime soon. Q2 numbers didn’t cause much of a market impact. What this means is the current price level already has the negative COVID impact priced in. The market runs on expectations rather than actuals. 6. CME Gap Last week, the 9.6-9.9k gap seems likely to be filled. Right now, it’s looking less likely as we are developing a short-term flat corrective wave. This type of wave generally preps us for an explosive move in the same market direction (up in the current case). (90% of historical BTC CME gaps get filled sooner or later - generally created by weekend BTC movements when the CME’s closed). Key Technicals: 1. RSI: RSI now showing extremely bullish signs. (2D, 1D) Be careful shorting with RSI bearish divergences. Once RSI is extremely bullish, bearish divergences can keep on developing with price making new highs. In this type of situation, the key is waiting for the MA failure (instead of bearish divergence) for a trend reversal identification. 4hr RSI support at 40 – would be good dip buying opportunities. 2. Support/Resistance: Key support at 10.5k – 11k. 3. Wave developments: We are likely in wave ii of III. Details see the chart above. Are you a bull or a bear? Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed! =========================================================== 🌐 We believe in the power of blockchain on-chain data analysis! ===========================================================
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Phi-Deltalytics
51
BTC Weekly Outlook (FA & TA)First of all, please support our work by smashing that like button or following! These really help us to reach more traders like you! Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level. This is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs. Institutional investors showed picked up interest in the crypto space as Grayscale raised $900M in Q2 (its ATH quarter since inception). Institutional traders on CME remains undecided for the mid-term, and there are no clear signs of bullishness for the coming months. 2. Miner action: Both hash rate and difficulty have recovered, and miner capitulation has ended. With miner capitulation historically marking market bottoms, this is a bullish long-term sign. 3. Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment is bullish and potentially overstretched. The seller group is selling in profit and the seller group only market sentiment remains in a bull trend. 4. Margin Market Actions Potential long squeeze alert in place. This is bearish for the short term. Key Technicals: 1. Key resistance at 10.4k 2. 5 Elliot wave to the upside is finishing 3. RSI hasn’t shown bearish reversal signs yet: 2D – broke the bearish trend; 1D – bullish; 4hr – developing bearish divergences in the overbought region. This is extremely bullish from a RSI only perspective as multiple bearish divs can keep on developing with price making new highs. In this type of situation, the key is waiting for the MA failure (instead of bearish divergence) for a trend reversal identification. Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed! ================================================== 🌐 We believe in the power of blockchain data analysis! ==================================================
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Phi-Deltalytics
92
BTC Short-term Long Scalp IncomingFirst of all, please support our work by smashing that like button or following! These really help us to reach more traders like you! The margin market drives lots of crypto movements. Since whales could profit from opening both spot and margin accounts to facilitate pumps/dumps, and only minority wins in this market, counter trading the general margin market bias has worked well in the past. Currently, both Bitfinex and BitMEX show bearish bias, and this means we are ready for a long scalp. However, several other things still need to happen for the setup to go through. 1. Short-term open interest needs to pick up (otherwise there’s no whale in play, simply retail against retail. A very unpredictable situation.) 2. I would like to see the Bitfinex margin trader net position chg picks up and finding support at higher RSI levels. 3. 4hr BTC RSI has dropped below 30 once. Since BTC often revisits RSI below 30 region twice (often wave 3 and wave 5), another potential leg down is possible. When that happens, both Bitfinex and BitMEX margin traders likely will maintain the bearish bias. Don’t get bear trapped and good luck! Do you think we are going to drop to 8k anytime soon? Are you a short-term bear or bull? All thoughts and critics are welcomed! ===================================================== 🌐 We believe in the power of blockchain data analysis! =====================================================
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Phi-Deltalytics
79
BTC: Institutions Not Convinced of Bullishness YetFirst of all, please support our work by smashing that like button or following! These really help us to reach more traders like you! BTC’s recent lack of market interest is leading to a concerning drop in the CME open interest money flow index. The last two times this index dropped below 30 is correlated with at least 3 months of BTC corrections. The bottom indicator in the chart above shows the net position for CME institutional traders over time. This includes both the leveraged fund positions and the asset manager positions on CME. Even though CME displays other trader categories, we find the institutional traders’ behavior most reliable. Currently, CME institutional traders’ net position remains similar to the level in mid-February 2020 (the BTC price peak before "black Thursday" 40% drop), and it has been dropping significantly since BTC attempted 10k. For a short-term break above 10k scenario to work, we would like to see the institutional net positions reversing to an increasing trend. Are you currently a bull or a bear on BTC? All thoughts and critics are welcomed! ===================================================== 🌐 We believe in the power of blockchain data analysis! =====================================================
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Phi-Deltalytics
66
BTC Weekly Outlook (FA&TA)First of all, please support our work by smashing that like button or following! These really help us to reach more traders like you! Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level. This is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs. 2. Miner action: Both hash rate and difficulty are recovering, and miner capitulation is ending. With miner capitulation historically marking market bottoms, this is a bullish long-term sign. 3. Overall Market Sentiment: For the entire BTC holding, the overall market sentiment is neutral with low interest. BTC has seen more bull runs after periods of low volatility, and a deeper correction might be exactly what’s needed to give the market enough strength to continue to long-term bull trend. 4. Seller Group Only Market Sentiment (SOPR): This group continues to sell in profit, indicating a long-term bullish trend. 5. Margin Market Actions: With the increasing short interest on Bitmex, we might have a short squeeze coming in the very short-term, pushing us to the 9.3k – 9.6k zone. Key Technicals: 1. Daily RSI looking bearish for the mid-term. In order for the bullish trend to remain, the daily RSI needs to find support above its MAs. 2. Side way consolidation last week moved us out of the rising triangle 3. Wave developments: the rising triangle is invalidated with last week’s actions. Thus, we may have already finished the 5 Elliot waves upwards and are now in an ABC (zigzag) correction to the downside. Wave A seems to be finished and the 0.618 Fib retracement for wave A is around 9.8k. Bearish pressure is expected once this level is hit. Are you a bull or a bear? Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed! =========================================================== 🌐 We believe in the power of blockchain on-chain data analysis! ===========================================================
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Phi-Deltalytics
50
BTC Weekly Outlook (FA & TA)First of all, please support our work by smashing that like button or following! These really help us to reach more traders like you! Key Technicals: 1. RSI: Daily RSI has signs of recovering. As suspected last week, the rise to 9.5k formed a RSI hidden bearish divergence. Even though RSI has broken above its MAs, a second test of MA as support is needed before turning short-term bullish. 2D RSI still trending bearish. 2. Support/Resistance: Even though we broke above the EMAs in the past week, the upward momentum was not accompanied by volume. Same is true for some resistance break out ideas out there. Some analysts argue we are currently at key supports, which is true. However, with the many bullish daily candle formations getting us close to zero upward momentum, these key support zones are weakening. This means the downward channel still holds with BTC likely trapped below the EMAs for the coming weeks. 3. Wave developments: We modified the sub-wave counts this week. However, the main idea stays the same – 5 Elliot wave to the upside is now finished and we are traveling in the corrective wave formation to the downside. We’ve got some feedback regarding the wave 5 looking like part of wave 4 development. However, we do believe BTC see a lot of truncated 5th waves. Just look at the 14k top, which ends with the strongest move to the upside. For a detailed count, see below: Key Fundamentals: 1. CME: CME institutional traders’ net position remains similar to the level in mid-February 2020 (the BTC price peak before "black Thursday" 40% drop ), and it has been dropping significantly since BTC attempted 10k. For a short-term break above 10k scenario to work, we would like to see the institutional net positions reversing to an increasing trend. 2. Smart money action: The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level. This is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs (long-term). 3. Miner action: Both hash rate and difficulty are recovering, and miner capitulation is ending. With miner capitulation historically marking market bottoms, this is a bullish long-term sign. 4. Overall Market Sentiment: For the entire BTC holding, the overall market sentiment is net long with low interest. BTC has seen more bull runs after periods of low volatility , and a deeper correction might be exactly what’s needed to give the market enough strength to continue to long-term bull trend. 5. Seller Group Only Market Sentiment (SOPR): This group continues to sell in profit, indicating a long-term bullish trend. Do you think BTC will turn bullish in the short-term? Do you agree with our analysis? All thoughts and critics are welcomed! ===================================================== 🌐 We believe in the power of blockchain data analysis! =====================================================
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Phi-Deltalytics
51
Who drive BTC Price vs. Value? First of all, please support our work by smashing that like button or following! These really help us to reach more traders like you! There are two group of people in the crypto space: long-term investors and short-term speculators. One often overlooked fact is while short-term speculators dominate the actively daily traded BTC, long-term investors actually dominate the entire BTC holding. Understanding how these two groups contribute to BTC value and price separately is crucial in profiting in the long run. “Never invest in a business you cannot understand.” – Warren Buffett Are you a long-term investor or a short-term speculator? Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed! =========================================================== 🌐 We believe in the power of blockchain on-chain data analysis! ===========================================================
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Phi-Deltalytics
25
BTC: Don’t be bearish yet!First of all, please support our work by smashing that like button or following! These really help us to reach more traders like you! Trend: Still bullish We believe the bear trend ended in December 2019. And if COVID didn’t happen, the bull trend starting point would have been the 7k range last year. Miner capitulation and on-chain volume cycles are two of the most accurate fundamental cycle measurements, and these show strong bullish signs since 7k. Is there a chance to turn to bearish trend? Yes, absolutely. However, we haven’t seen enough confirmations. Every bull-to-bear trend switch starts with a correction, but if every correction is seen as a trend switch, not much profit could be made out of the bull run. The way we are looking at this is CONSISTENTLY trading all corrections until getting stopped out on the last one. Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level. This is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs. 2. Miner action: Both hash rate and difficulty are recovering, and miner capitulation is ending. With miner capitulation historically marking market bottoms, this is a bullish long-term sign. 3. Overall Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment is turning bearish. 4. Seller Group Only Market Sentiment: Selling in profit and in bull trend. We kept picked up alerts of decreasing selling pressure in the past few days, and this is bullish for the short term. 5. Margin Market Actions Just got a potential short squeeze alert yesterday. This is bullish for the short term. 6. SPX impact: See the ideas linked at the bottom. Key Technicals: 1. Trendline crossover below (both significant as strong support and potential reversal timing) 2. Target: 10k for this week 3. Wave developments: We’ll likely keep on developing wave4 this week, fluctuating between 8.7k – 10k. 4. RSI: At key bull trend support. Also 2 strong bullish reversals occurred (price higher low + RSI lower low). Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed! ============================================================== 🌐 We believe in the power of blockchain data analysis! ==============================================================
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Phi-Deltalytics
24
BTC: Bullish Trend RemainsOur view remains bullish with key zones of interest at 10k and 12k. Fundamentals still indicate a bullish trend, and below are some key changes since the last update: - (Slight bearish) On-chain volume level did decrease to the level which started this bull run. If the on-chain volume doesn’t recovery soon, caution is needed. - (Bullish) We’ve seen bullish confirmations from both the selling pressure indicator and the margin market long/short squeeze indicator. - (Bullish) Both hash rate and difficulty are recovering, indicating a coming end of miner capitulation. - (Key risk) If China experiences another COVID19 outbreak, we might see a repeat of March in smaller degree. So far, BTC has not proven itself to be decorrelated with stock market actions. We are keeping an eye on the current Beijing COVID19 status. Hopefully, the situation could be controlled. Simple profitable rules that most know but few follow through: 1. The trend is your friend 2. When in bull: buy the dips 3. When in bear: sell the peaks 4. Assume the current trend persists until proven otherwise Elliot wave counts we are keeping in mind: What’s your view? Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Phi-Deltalytics
33
BTC: FA & TA SetupsFirst of all, please support our work by smashing that like button or following! These really help us to reach more traders like you! Summary: We think BTC will likely fluctuate within the 9k – 10.5k range this coming week. The fundamentals are looking more bullish compared to last week. From the technical analysis perspective, we believe we are at key support, with a 0.4-0.5k bear trap zone beneath. Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: We are now seeing pickups in the on-chain smart money actions. With on-chain vol finding support and stabilizing, we are bullish for the long term. 2. Miner action: Both hash rate and difficulty are recovering, and miner capitulation is ending. With miner capitulation historically marking market bottoms, this is a bullish long-term sign. 3. Overall Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment is quite rational right now with not much bias. 4. Seller Group Only Market Sentiment: Selling in profit and in bull trend. We picked up alerts of decreasing selling pressure a few days ago, and this is bullish for the short term. 5. Margin Market Actions We have a potential for short squeeze. This is bullish for the short term. 6. SPX impact: See the ideas linked at the bottom. Key Technicals: 1. Strong support at trendline crossover 2. Target: 10.5k for this week 3. Wave developments: We’ll likely keep on developing wave4 this week, fluctuating between 9k – 10.5k. 4. Oscillators at key support What’s your view on the week ahead? Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!
Editors' picks
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Phi-Deltalytics
60