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Three Driving Forces Behind the Ether-Bitcoin Exchange RateAt a glance: Higher tech stocks tend to boost ETHBTC, while a higher USD tends to depress it Bitcoin supply is perfectly inelastic, which contributes to its high volatility Together, ether and bitcoin account for over 60% of the total value of the world’s cryptocurrencies, but the exchange rate between the two has varied widely over time. So, what drives the Ether-Bitcoin exchange rate? The ETHBTC cross rate responds to many factors, but here are three of them. Technology Stocks On days when the tech heavy Nasdaq 100 index rallies, ether tends to rise versus bitcoin. This may be because ether, which is the currency of the Ethereum smart contract network, has more practical applications in the technology space than bitcoin, which is mainly held as a store of value and a medium of exchange. U.S. Dollar On days when the U.S. dollar is higher, ether tends to underperform versus bitcoin. Bitcoin Supply While ether can be supplied up to 18 million coins per year, bitcoin supply is limited to a maximum of 21 million coins ever, of which about 19 million already exist. Every four years, the supply of new bitcoin drops in half. In the past, halvings have often been preceded by large runups in bitcoin prices and tremendous increases in the amount of revenue that bitcoin miners are paid for matching transactions. Ether is both more volatile than bitcoin and highly correlated to bitcoin. As such, when bitcoin rises or falls versus the U.S. dollar, ether often moves to an even greater degree. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group *Various CME Group affiliates are regulated entities with corresponding obligations and rights pursuant to financial services regulations in a number of jurisdictions. Further details of CME Group's regulatory status and full disclaimer of liability in accordance with applicable law are available here: www.cmegroup.com **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME:BTC1!Education
by CME_Group
Bitcoin BTCUSDT Price analysis (4h)Greetings, fellow traders and esteemed members of the TradingView community! Today, let us delve into the 4-hour timeframe of BTCUSDT and explore the potential price direction for the upcoming days. From a meticulous technical analysis standpoint, we observe the price undergoing a breakout from a triangular pattern. This development may potentially trigger a significant downward movement, with a possible target of the 26675 level, which represents the last support level from the preceding uptrend. The MACD indicator diligently tracks the price action, providing valuable insights, yet it does not currently exhibit any major signs of a trend reversal. Additionally, the RSI, having accurately signalled a volatility spike preceding the breakdown of BTC price from the triangle, has further validated our earlier prediction: Pay close attention to the price action around the support level, as heightened selling pressure could potentially breach this level. However, should the support hold steadfast, it may present an attractive opportunity for long trades. Remember to employ prudent risk management techniques, such as setting appropriate stop-loss orders and adhering to your predetermined risk tolerance. By doing so, you can navigate the market with a greater sense of security and confidence. Stay vigilant, adapt to changing market conditions, and trade wisely. Wishing you successful and risk-managed trading endeavours!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Vestinda
BTC Ready To Dump Fast And Hard-Crash Is ImminentBTC/1H Still in that Parallel Upwards channel *I FORGOT to mention there is a ascending triangle pattern on btc which I think its jebaiting the longers* Today is FOMC day where rate hike will be announced and will have huge impact on whole market , not only traditional but crypto as well. We usually get a move to both side around (%3) liquidating all the high leverages which we call ( sweeping the highs and lows) after than the move will come IMO its a capitulation candle downwards around 23K. could be worse . Thanks you for watching- Please support the channel by Follow,Boost,Comment and Sharing
BINANCE:BTCUSD.PShort
by pcmonk
Breaking the Bears: Bitcoin Bullish MomentumHello @TradingView community. Welcome in @Vestinda Bitcoin price analysis. Reports about bank collapses, stablecoins, and interest rate increases appear to be powerful enough to increase the price of bitcoin. Well, Bitcoin almost hovers above $28,000 amid banking instability. On the other side, we discover chart patterns that suggest a market recovery from the bear trend as Bitcoin surged in the beginning of March 2023 by approximately +80%. 1. Price on long term scale remains in Rising Channel 2. Strong breakout of Downtrend Resistance 3. EMA Ribbon bullish breakout Which means price is likely to continue growth inside Rising Channel, and according to identical move characteristics from 2019, we might land on this move in the upper 40s or low 50s. For sure it is our High-hopes, and in general, the price movement may differ both in time and appearance. What is Rising Channel in trading? A rising channel is a technical analysis tool used by traders to identify an uptrend in the market. It is formed when the price of a security moves between two parallel trendlines, with the upper trendline representing resistance and the lower trendline representing support. The rising channel can be used to identify potential entry and exit points for trades, as well as to determine whether a security is in an uptrend or downtrend. Traders can also use it to set stop-loss orders and take profits when trading, a rising channel helps traders determine where the current price is in reference to the median of the market. Learn about Bulls and Bears on the markets: Hey, what do you like to read next on TradingView? Your feedback will help us create more relevant and useful content! Thank you so much.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Vestinda
2
ArShevelev /// Bitcoin's Decline is InevitableThe fact is that a lot of people just don't care about Bitcoin anymore. If you do a Google search for "Bitcoin," it will lead to 623 million results. But if you do a similar search for "bitcoin price," there are only 157 million results, and the vast majority of them are not important news articles or price analysis. And the reason why Bitcoin prices remain stuck in sideways channels or breakdowns is because most people don't care about it anymore. Price action is boring. They're waiting to see how much they can make by buying low and selling high, and they're not so concerned about the reality that such a purchase demands endurance and perseverance. Most people are used to trading in 2022 on futures in a continuous downtrend, but now the time has come for a trend shift, and we see the movements altering each other up and down, causing the market to go sideways. If there is a long-term buyer on bitcoin, I am confident that it will purchase quietly and change the public attention away from purchasing but towards selling. Remember that. Things might change if the price goes below the 20600 level, which I believe is critical for momentum. Yet, if 20600 is broken, we will almost certainly witness a double bottom attempt. Kind regards Artem Crypto
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ArShevelev
1
Bitcoin FTX Futures brokenHere's an example how everything is looking completely upside down with FTX. Forward Futures trading at 7% premiums while price marking down is unnatural behaviour. Of course we can easily compare to Deribit Futures everything is looking completely destroyed as Premiums are marking severe discounts. But this is actually what I was expecting for months to happen. A bottom can only be found if we have Futures trading in Backwardation as they are right now. However, I expect them to sustain this way maybe for a week or two to be legit. If they normalize too quickly is a sign that there is too much bullishness in the system. The fact that we have Binance and OKX perpetual swaps trading aggressive above spot prices is also another bearish sign as margin traders are positioning themselves long on leverage... what could go wrong? Things are looking ugly right now and we have no clue what other side effects are yet to bleed into the market as this start affecting balance-sheet of lenders, FTX partners, and other big institutions that are exposed to the FTX nightmare.
FTX:BTCPERPShort
by D7R
1
In terms of Elliot waves, three scenarios can be considered for The first scenario is to start the upward movement from now In the second scenario, we can move up from now on, but in the future we will see weakness in the upward direction and we will move down again within 5 waves (flat correction pattern will be formed). In the third scenario, we have to move down through 5 waves, of which 3 waves have been completed so far and we are now in wave 4. So we have to have another downward wave. The maximum amount of this decrease is up to the level of 14 thousand dollars. Which scenario do you agree with?
by aligheysari73
6
BTC Macro Trend Line BrokenI am not in a BTC position currently, though this is a huge occurrence in the bigger time frames. I will be watching this with hawk eyes over the next few days. If we find support, this could be the sign of a macro reversal. I am still extremely bearish though, especially when it comes to issues on the world finance stage. Let's not even begin to talk about the geopolitical factors that could sway the price of all asset classes at the moment. I covered all of this in my October finance report. These are some very intense markets we are trading in right now. Let me know what you think about this.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by WatsonsView
16
Micro Bitcoin Futures (MBT1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise Resistance : 24320 Pivot: 22440 Support : 20790 Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 22440 where the overlap resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are. Once there is upside confirmation that price has broken pivot structure, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to 1st resistance at 24320 where the overlap resistance and 161.8% fibonacci extension are. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could drop to the 1st support at 20790 where the overlap support is. Fundamentals: Due to the weakening US Dollar , we have a bullish view on Bitcoin.
CME:MBT1!Long
by Genesiv
1
Micro Bitcoin Futures (MBT1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop Resistance : 22420 Pivot: 20785 Support : 18610 Preferred Case: On the H4, with price expected to reverse off the stochastic resistance, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from the pivot at 20785 where the overlap resistance and 38.2% fibonacci retracement are to the 1st support at 18610 where the swing low support and 78.6% fibonacci projection are. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and rise to 1st resistance at 22420 where the pullback resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are. Fundamentals: Due to the weakening US Dollar, we have a bullish view on Bitcoin. We'll need to exercise caution for this setup because our fundamentals and technicals are not completely aligned.
CME:MBT1!Short
by Genesiv
MICRO BITCOIN FUTURES (MBT1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop Resistance : 20695 Pivot: 19390 Support : 18495 Preferred Case: On the H4, with price breaking out of an ascending channel and moving below an ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop to pivot at 19390 where the swing low support and 127.2% fibonacci extension are. Should price break pivot structure, we would expect bearish momentum to carry price to 1st support at 18495 where the swing low support, -61.8% fibonacci expansion and 78.6% fibonacci projection are. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to 1st resistance at 20695 where the pullback resistance, 100% fibonacci projection and 23.6% fibonacci retracement are. Fundamentals: After Fed Chair Powell reiterated that the Fed will tighten policy to bring down inflation , we have a bearish view on Bitcoin .
CME:MBT1!Short
by Genesiv
MICRO BITCOIN FUTURES (MBT1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop Resistance : 22420 Pivot: 20785 Intermediate Support: 19400 Support : 18610 Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving below an ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from pivot at 20785 where the pullback resistance, 100% fibonacci projection and 23.6% fibonacci retracement are to the 1st support at 18610 where the swing low support, 78.6% fibonacci projection and -61.8% fibonacci expansion are. Take note of intermediate support at 19400 where the swing low support is. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and rise to 1st resistance at 22420 where the overlap resistance, 100% fibonacci projection and 50% fibonacci retracement are. Fundamentals: After Fed Chair Powell reiterated that the Fed will tighten policy to bring down inflation , we have a bearish view on Bitcoin .
CME:MBT1!Short
by Genesiv
MICRO BITCOIN FUTURES (MBT1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop Resistance : 22420 Pivot: 20695 Intermediate Support: 19390 Support : 18830 Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving below an ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from pivot at 20695 where the pullback resistance and 23.6% fibonacci retracement are to the 1st support at 18830 where the swing low support and -61.8% fibonacci expansion are. Take note of intermediate support at 19390 where the 127.2% fibonacci extension and swing low support are. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and rise to 1st resistance at 22420 where the overlap resistance, 100% fibonacci projection and 50% fibonacci retracement are. Fundamentals: After Fed Chair Powell reiterated that the Fed will tighten policy to bring down inflation, we have a bearish view on Bitcoin.
CME:MBT1!Short
by Genesiv
MICRO BITCOIN FUTURES (MBT1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop Resistance : 22485 Pivot: 20720 Support : 18870 Preferred Case: On the H4, with price breaking out of a bullish channel and moving below the ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop to pivot at 20720 where the 161.8% fibonacci extension and swing low support are. Once we have downside confirmation of price breaking pivot structure, we would expect bearish momentum to carry price to 1st support at 18870 where the swing low support, -61.8% fibonacci expansion and 161.8% fibonacci extension are. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to 1st resistance at 22485 where the pullback resistance, 61.8% fibonacci projection and 38.2% fibonacci retracement are. Fundamentals: Since institutional investors have been pulling out of Bitcoin for the past two weeks, we have a bearish outlook on Bitcoin .
CME:MBT1!Short
by Genesiv