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Bitcoinfutures

Bitcoin Futures: A Quantitative Approach to Analyzing BTCIntroduction to Bitcoin Futures Bitcoin, the pioneering digital asset, has carved a niche in the financial markets with its futures contracts. Bitcoin Futures provide traders and investors a regulated avenue to speculate on the price of Bitcoin without holding the actual cryptocurrency. This article delves into a quantitative analysis to analyze the next week's potential value of Bitcoin Futures, employing a sophisticated Neural Network model. Current Market Landscape The Bitcoin market is known for its rapid price movements. Recently, regulatory news, technological advancements, and shifts in investor sentiment have contributed to market fluctuations. Understanding these trends is crucial for traders looking to navigate this dynamic landscape. Quantitative Analysis of BTC Futures' Potential Price Movements Neural Networks & Machine Learning: At the heart of our quantitative approach is a Neural Network model. This model has been trained on historical weekly data of Bitcoin Futures, including key price points and other relevant market indicators. Data Preprocessing: To ensure accuracy, the data underwent rigorous preprocessing, including normalization to make it suitable for the Neural Network. This step is essential in highlighting the true patterns and trends in the data without noise or scale issues distorting the model's view. Model Training: Our model was trained over 500 iterations, adjusting its internal parameters to minimize prediction error. This training process involved feeding the model historical data and letting it learn from the actual price movements. Evaluation and Prediction: After training, the model's performance was evaluated. The actual prices were compared against the model's predictions to assess robustness. This evaluation is crucial in understanding the model's reliability. Impact of External Factors Bitcoin Futures are affected by a range of external factors, including regulatory changes, market sentiment, and technological developments. These factors can cause sudden and unpredictable market movements, making the analysis of future potential prices challenging. Our model takes into account the historical impact of these factors, but it's important to remember that unforeseen future events can lead to deviations from predicted values. Forward-Looking Market Views Based on our Neural Network's learning and the recent market data, the model predicts that the value of Bitcoin Futures for the next week will be around "$44,026.60". This prediction is visualized in our graph comparing actual prices against predicted values over time, providing a clear view of the model's accuracy. Given the fact that the current value of BTC is slightly under 43,000, a trader could plan a long trade targeting 44,026.60 as their exit price. Entries could be taken in many ways such as utilizing key technical supports or waiting for breakouts above key resistance price levels. In all cases, a professional approach to taking risk in the marketplace always require managing such risk using stop-loss orders and making sure the trade size has been pre-calculated. There are many more options on how to have a contingency plan in place in case BTC moved in the opposite direction our AI expected it to. More on this in future articles. The model's learning curve, depicted in the accuracy graph, shows how the prediction accuracy improved over training iterations, reflecting the model's increasing proficiency at understanding the market. Conclusion Our quantitative analysis, utilizing a sophisticated Neural Network model, provides a prediction for the next week's value of Bitcoin Futures. While this prediction is grounded in historical data and advanced algorithms, it's important for traders to consider the inherent volatility and unpredictability of the Bitcoin market. The predictive model is a powerful tool, but it should be used as part of a broader strategy that considers market news, economic reports, and other indicators. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes, forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:BTC1!
by traddictiv
2
Bitcoin Fibonacci Rising ChannelBitcoin's price movement is meticulously adhering to the contours of a Fibonacci Rising Channel, illuminating potential future resistance zones and critical levels. Here's a detailed breakdown of the current outlook: As of now, Bitcoin is poised for a significant move, targeting the key psychological level of $50,000. The Fibonacci Rising Channel provides a clear roadmap for this ascent, indicating potential resistance areas along the way. Anticipated Move: Upon reaching the $50,000 mark, a retracement is expected. A pullback to approximately $40,000 appears to be a plausible scenario, aligning with the dynamics of the Fibonacci Channel. This correction is an inherent part of the price cycle, offering potential entry points for strategic investors. Elliott Waves Analysis: Adding depth to our analysis, we incorporate Elliott Waves (EW) to discern the broader market structure. According to EW principles, the level of is a crucial invalidator, residing at $30,900. A breach of this level would challenge the current wave count and necessitate a reassessment of the broader Elliott Waves pattern. Key Levels to Watch: $50,000 Resistance: An area of significant psychological and historical importance. Observe price action closely as Bitcoin approaches this level. $40,000 Support: Anticipate a retracement to this level post the $50,000 test. This could present an opportunity for traders seeking entry points. Elliott Waves Rule: Invalidator: Rigorously monitor the $30,900 level. A sustained move below this point would trigger a reevaluation of the Elliott Waves structure, potentially signaling a shift in the overall trend. Bitcoin's trajectory within the Fibonacci Rising Channel, coupled with insights from Elliott Waves, provides a comprehensive framework for traders and investors. As we approach the pivotal $50,000 level, vigilant monitoring and a well-defined strategy are paramount. Happy Trading!
Long
by Vestinda
Bitcoin Futures : Gap filledCME Bitcoin Futures : Gap filled ...................................................................................................................... We are not registered or licensed in any jurisdiction whatsoever to provide investing advice or anything of an advisory or consultancy nature. and are therefore are unqualified to give investment recommendations. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed investment professional before investing. This communication is never to be used as the basis of making investment decisions, and it is for entertainment purposes only.
CME:BTC1!
by CryptoTrend-Alerts
😱 BITCOIN PRICE PREDICTION 2020/2021 😱 NEW PHASE ‼‼‼Here is the update on history of Bitcoin. NEW +1 Phase spotted. I find 7+1 Phases of the bitcoin from the top of 2013. 1. Descending Triangle Phase Price in form of triangle, in 2013 this pattern last for about 398 days. In the 2018, we can see similar triangle shape and price last here for about same period in 341 days. Next phase 2. Ascending Triangle Phase After breakdown of the phase 1, market in 2014 moved down and in start of 2015 formed Ascending triangle shape within 186 days. Now look at 2018/2019 zone of Ascending triangle , similar shape, similar period of 155 days. Next price moved upside to next phase. 3. Flat Zone Phase After moving upside price stuck in Flat zone for the 149 days in end 2015 and beginning of 2016. In middle of 2019 price stucked in similar Flat zone for about 162 days. Then we moving to next phase 4. Inverse Triangle Rise Phase In this zone we see about 105 days of rise in between middle of 2016. Here is highly debatable, but looks similar in end of 2019, you can see similar rise within 107 days. What happened next is phase of sudden crash. 5. Sudden Crash Phase So you see the 4th phase with 107 days rise, then within just few days price suddenly crashes in end of summer 2016. Same Sudden Crash happened in fears of COVID-19 in March 2020, right after Inverse Triangle Phase (4). Now move to phase 6. 6. Lack of Certainty Top In the end of 2016 we see the small volatility movement below resistance line and before this Top zone, we see steady rise for 153 days, before the market breakout from resistance line. In the 2020 we see steady rise after Sudden Crash (5) for about 156 days. Now price approaching resistance line without big volatility . Here is the prediction starts, in 2017 after breakout we faced 7th phase. NEW. 7. ATH Volatility Spike In the beginning of 2017 you can see green rectangle - at that time price approached 2013 ATH ($1150) and looks like there price start to jump really fast. Price made a pullback from ATH and then tried to break it, showing false breakout and then only at third attempt it broke the ATH level and Parabic started 8. Parabolic Rush Phase So after the breaking out from resistance line in early 2017, Bitcoin price started to grow, and after crossing previous highs market flooded with new traders and fresh money, which caused insane growth of the price for abut 357 days. Will this phase repeats after we cross 20k again? This is topic for discuss :) 👉 What price do you think we will face during end of 2020 and in 2021? Stay tuned, have a good profits Appreciate your likes and subscriptions This is Artem Crypto
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ArShevelev
7
We Have Our Answer!Traders, A few posts ago, you will see that (2) two gaps were being focused on. The question was posed about which might be filled first. Many of my followers understand that my bias was to the upside gap being filled first. Thanks to the Blackrock ETF approval, this has occurred. And, as I stated in my video yesterday, I have unloaded 50% of ALL my positions (alts included), taken profits, and moved my stops up to break even. I will let the remainder ride for now and hopefully take the rest off at the 50 day ma of the SPOT BTC chart which intersect exactly with the bottom of that important support (now resistance) which I talked about in yesterday's video at 28,750. If we don't hit that and I get stopped out instead, no issue cuz I move all my stops to break even and will take no loss now. There still remain (2) two unfilled gaps: one at 20,290 from March of this year and one at 35,180 from May of last year. I still believe both will be filled soon. Stay tuned for more on this unfolding price action as, through charting research, I hope to gain a better grasp on how it will go. Stew
CME:BTC1!Long
by stewdamus
Bitcoin Below 50ma, Watching $20k Price GapAlong with all of the major stock indices falling below their 50-day moving averages this week, Bitcoin is also below its 50ma and testing the 100ma for support. Failure to hold above the 100ma near $28.7k will likely lead to a test of the orange trendline near $28k. If that also fails to hold as support then we can consider the uptrend in price over and a likely test of the 200ma near $25k. The main lower level that I've been watching and expecting price to hit after price failed to hold above $30k twice this year stems from the gap in price created in early March in the $20k- FWB:21K area. Gaps tend to get filled and Bitcoin has a consistent history of filling gaps in the chart. The lower PPO indicator shows the green PPO line trending below the purple signal line which indicates short-term bearish momentum. Both lines have also crossed below the 0 level which indicates potential intermediate to long-term bearish momentum in play. The TDI indicators shows the green RSI line trending below 50 and heading down towards the 40 level. A move below the 40 level would indicate a short-term bearish price trend. The RSI is also trading in the lower half of extremely tight Bollinger Bands which indicates current short-term bearish momentum with a potentially big move head as tightening BBands tend to precede large moves. Overall, Bitcoin hasn't flipped completely bearish yet, but when taking into account the deteriorating picture in the stock market and Bitcoins indicators leaning bearish, the outlook for price looks weak here. The main level I'm watching for now in the short-term is the orange uptrend line as a breach below there would indicate that price is likely to continue heading lower, which seems like the likely move after two failed attempts to hold above $30k this year. I'm currently short Bitcoin via the ProShares Short Bitcoin ETF, BITI. Entry was at $19.71 yesterday with a stop-loss at $18.91 should Bitcoin happen to turn around and head higher.
CME:BTC1!Short
by PrepForProfit
Three Driving Forces Behind the Ether-Bitcoin Exchange RateAt a glance: Higher tech stocks tend to boost ETHBTC, while a higher USD tends to depress it Bitcoin supply is perfectly inelastic, which contributes to its high volatility Together, ether and bitcoin account for over 60% of the total value of the world’s cryptocurrencies, but the exchange rate between the two has varied widely over time. So, what drives the Ether-Bitcoin exchange rate? The ETHBTC cross rate responds to many factors, but here are three of them. Technology Stocks On days when the tech heavy Nasdaq 100 index rallies, ether tends to rise versus bitcoin. This may be because ether, which is the currency of the Ethereum smart contract network, has more practical applications in the technology space than bitcoin, which is mainly held as a store of value and a medium of exchange. U.S. Dollar On days when the U.S. dollar is higher, ether tends to underperform versus bitcoin. Bitcoin Supply While ether can be supplied up to 18 million coins per year, bitcoin supply is limited to a maximum of 21 million coins ever, of which about 19 million already exist. Every four years, the supply of new bitcoin drops in half. In the past, halvings have often been preceded by large runups in bitcoin prices and tremendous increases in the amount of revenue that bitcoin miners are paid for matching transactions. Ether is both more volatile than bitcoin and highly correlated to bitcoin. As such, when bitcoin rises or falls versus the U.S. dollar, ether often moves to an even greater degree. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group *Various CME Group affiliates are regulated entities with corresponding obligations and rights pursuant to financial services regulations in a number of jurisdictions. Further details of CME Group's regulatory status and full disclaimer of liability in accordance with applicable law are available here: www.cmegroup.com **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME:BTC1!Education
by CME_Group
Bitcoin BTCUSDT Price analysis (4h)Greetings, fellow traders and esteemed members of the TradingView community! Today, let us delve into the 4-hour timeframe of BTCUSDT and explore the potential price direction for the upcoming days. From a meticulous technical analysis standpoint, we observe the price undergoing a breakout from a triangular pattern. This development may potentially trigger a significant downward movement, with a possible target of the 26675 level, which represents the last support level from the preceding uptrend. The MACD indicator diligently tracks the price action, providing valuable insights, yet it does not currently exhibit any major signs of a trend reversal. Additionally, the RSI, having accurately signalled a volatility spike preceding the breakdown of BTC price from the triangle, has further validated our earlier prediction: Pay close attention to the price action around the support level, as heightened selling pressure could potentially breach this level. However, should the support hold steadfast, it may present an attractive opportunity for long trades. Remember to employ prudent risk management techniques, such as setting appropriate stop-loss orders and adhering to your predetermined risk tolerance. By doing so, you can navigate the market with a greater sense of security and confidence. Stay vigilant, adapt to changing market conditions, and trade wisely. Wishing you successful and risk-managed trading endeavours!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Vestinda
BTC Ready To Dump Fast And Hard-Crash Is ImminentBTC/1H Still in that Parallel Upwards channel *I FORGOT to mention there is a ascending triangle pattern on btc which I think its jebaiting the longers* Today is FOMC day where rate hike will be announced and will have huge impact on whole market , not only traditional but crypto as well. We usually get a move to both side around (%3) liquidating all the high leverages which we call ( sweeping the highs and lows) after than the move will come IMO its a capitulation candle downwards around 23K. could be worse . Thanks you for watching- Please support the channel by Follow,Boost,Comment and Sharing
BINANCE:BTCUSD.PShort
by pcmonk
Breaking the Bears: Bitcoin Bullish MomentumHello @TradingView community. Welcome in @Vestinda Bitcoin price analysis. Reports about bank collapses, stablecoins, and interest rate increases appear to be powerful enough to increase the price of bitcoin. Well, Bitcoin almost hovers above $28,000 amid banking instability. On the other side, we discover chart patterns that suggest a market recovery from the bear trend as Bitcoin surged in the beginning of March 2023 by approximately +80%. 1. Price on long term scale remains in Rising Channel 2. Strong breakout of Downtrend Resistance 3. EMA Ribbon bullish breakout Which means price is likely to continue growth inside Rising Channel, and according to identical move characteristics from 2019, we might land on this move in the upper 40s or low 50s. For sure it is our High-hopes, and in general, the price movement may differ both in time and appearance. What is Rising Channel in trading? A rising channel is a technical analysis tool used by traders to identify an uptrend in the market. It is formed when the price of a security moves between two parallel trendlines, with the upper trendline representing resistance and the lower trendline representing support. The rising channel can be used to identify potential entry and exit points for trades, as well as to determine whether a security is in an uptrend or downtrend. Traders can also use it to set stop-loss orders and take profits when trading, a rising channel helps traders determine where the current price is in reference to the median of the market. Learn about Bulls and Bears on the markets: Hey, what do you like to read next on TradingView? Your feedback will help us create more relevant and useful content! Thank you so much.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Vestinda
2
ArShevelev /// Bitcoin's Decline is InevitableThe fact is that a lot of people just don't care about Bitcoin anymore. If you do a Google search for "Bitcoin," it will lead to 623 million results. But if you do a similar search for "bitcoin price," there are only 157 million results, and the vast majority of them are not important news articles or price analysis. And the reason why Bitcoin prices remain stuck in sideways channels or breakdowns is because most people don't care about it anymore. Price action is boring. They're waiting to see how much they can make by buying low and selling high, and they're not so concerned about the reality that such a purchase demands endurance and perseverance. Most people are used to trading in 2022 on futures in a continuous downtrend, but now the time has come for a trend shift, and we see the movements altering each other up and down, causing the market to go sideways. If there is a long-term buyer on bitcoin, I am confident that it will purchase quietly and change the public attention away from purchasing but towards selling. Remember that. Things might change if the price goes below the 20600 level, which I believe is critical for momentum. Yet, if 20600 is broken, we will almost certainly witness a double bottom attempt. Kind regards Artem Crypto
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ArShevelev
1
Bitcoin FTX Futures brokenHere's an example how everything is looking completely upside down with FTX. Forward Futures trading at 7% premiums while price marking down is unnatural behaviour. Of course we can easily compare to Deribit Futures everything is looking completely destroyed as Premiums are marking severe discounts. But this is actually what I was expecting for months to happen. A bottom can only be found if we have Futures trading in Backwardation as they are right now. However, I expect them to sustain this way maybe for a week or two to be legit. If they normalize too quickly is a sign that there is too much bullishness in the system. The fact that we have Binance and OKX perpetual swaps trading aggressive above spot prices is also another bearish sign as margin traders are positioning themselves long on leverage... what could go wrong? Things are looking ugly right now and we have no clue what other side effects are yet to bleed into the market as this start affecting balance-sheet of lenders, FTX partners, and other big institutions that are exposed to the FTX nightmare.
FTX:BTCPERPShort
by D7R
1
In terms of Elliot waves, three scenarios can be considered for The first scenario is to start the upward movement from now In the second scenario, we can move up from now on, but in the future we will see weakness in the upward direction and we will move down again within 5 waves (flat correction pattern will be formed). In the third scenario, we have to move down through 5 waves, of which 3 waves have been completed so far and we are now in wave 4. So we have to have another downward wave. The maximum amount of this decrease is up to the level of 14 thousand dollars. Which scenario do you agree with?
by aligheysari73
6
BTC Macro Trend Line BrokenI am not in a BTC position currently, though this is a huge occurrence in the bigger time frames. I will be watching this with hawk eyes over the next few days. If we find support, this could be the sign of a macro reversal. I am still extremely bearish though, especially when it comes to issues on the world finance stage. Let's not even begin to talk about the geopolitical factors that could sway the price of all asset classes at the moment. I covered all of this in my October finance report. These are some very intense markets we are trading in right now. Let me know what you think about this.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by WatsonsView
16