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Bitcoinhalving

Unpacking Arguments Over the Bitcoin Halving Iran’s weekend attack on Israel prompts crypto selloff: Iran fired more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel over the weekend, heightening market fears that a wider conflict in the Middle East could break out. Crypto markets reacted initially with the price of BTC dropping from $67,800 to $61,300. Fed chair sounds hawkish on rate cuts: Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday cast doubt on carrying out previously expected interest rate cuts later in 2024. The price of BTC dipped the following day, briefly dropping below $60K, before mounting a small rally. Hong Kong approves first Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs: The move could help further establish Hong Kong as a key Asian hub for cryptocurrency trading. Markets are now watching closely to see if they receive more interest than Hong Kong’s previously launched BTC and ETH futures ETFs. ETH price falls to three-year low against BTC: ETH’s value against BTC has reached a three-year low, despite recent ETH spot ETF approvals and post-Merge price increases, with high transaction fees posing ongoing challenges. US senators move to advance stablecoin regulation: US Senators Cynthia Lummis and Kirsten Gillibrand introduced a bipartisan bill on Wednesday to regulate stablecoins that would require issuers to obtain federal licenses and maintain full reserves as a way to safely integrate them into the US financial system alongside the dollar. Solana-based DEX ‘Drift’ set to airdrop 10% of its token supply: The 100 million DRIFT token airdrop has been stirring excitement about the platform’s potential growth in the coming months. 🗣️Topic of the Week: Unpacking arguments over the Bitcoin halving 🫱 Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
1
An In-depth Look at the Bitcoin Halving History and 2024 A Brief Overview of Previous Bitcoin Halving & Its Effects on the Market Bitcoin halving is an event that occurs every four years and halves the reward for miners who successfully mine a new block. The Bitcoin protocol is heavily reliant on a concept known as mining. Mining is an essential part of the Bitcoin network and this is the process of verifying transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain, and has a significant impact on the Bitcoin market, as it affects the supply and demand of the Bitcoin. The first halving of Bitcoin occurred in 2012 and marked a major milestone in the cryptocurrency's history. Halving process reduces the amount of new Bitcoins created and released into circulation every 10 minutes, thereby reducing inflation and increasing the scarcity of Bitcoin. The halving event was seen as a bullish sign for the future of Bitcoin, as it suggests that demand for the digital currency is increasing while supply is decreasing. The rest of halvings in 2016 and 2020 Bitcoin price was followed by a pre-event and post-halving bullish rally which saw Bitcoin prices soar to all-time highs in 2017 and 2021 respectively. - What are Predictions for the Future Effects of 2024 Year's Bitcoin Halving on Prices? The Bitcoin halving of 2024 will be one of the most anticipated events in the cryptocurrency world. It is expected to have a major impact on the price of Bitcoin, and many experts are predicting that it could result in a significant increase in its value. It is important for investors to understand how this event is affecting the market so that they can make informed decisions about their investments. As we approach the Bitcoin halving, it is important to understand what it means and how it will impact the cryptocurrency market. 2024 year's halving will reduce the reward for miners from 6.25 BTC, the next block reward will be 3.125 BTC per block mined, which could have a significant effect on the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. To prepare for this, investors should be aware of potential changes in market dynamics, such as increased FOMO stimulus, sudden price volatility prior to halving. The halving events of Bitcoin have been divided into sectors in a chart to provide an insightful look into its history. It is interesting to note that each halving event is marked with a unique color, starting with number 0. This chart also provides a glimpse into the changes in Bitcoin's value during these events 1-2-3, and how they have impacted the growth of Bitcoin 1 Rising phase (2013, 2017, 2021) 2 Crash phase (2014, 2018, 2022) 3 Bottom Phase (2015, 2018, 2023?) According to this trend we can expect that 2023 is the Bottom phase of the cycle, and is likely to see prices double as investors look to make profits on the increasing scarcity of Bitcoin. After this, it's likely that we'll experience a rapid rise back towards new All-time Highs (ATH), as investors FOMO to take advantage of the increased demand. The bitcoin halving of 2024 will be a pivotal moment. After the halving, the amount of newly mined bitcoins will be reduced by half and this could lead to a significant change in the Bitcoin price. This may have both positive and negative implications for the value of bitcoin, however it might be a pure math of Supply and Demand. Best regards Artem Shevelev
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ArShevelev
11
🟠 BITCOIN MULTI TIMEFRAME: ZERO MOMENTUM IN PLAY 🟣🟣 Hey there, @TradingView fam! Ready for some fresh Bitcoin analysis? We've got a juicy update for you, covering multiple timeframes and packed with insights from key indicators. If you're diving into this post right now, show us some love with a thumbs up! And don't forget to jump into the comments section for some lively discussion. We'd love to hear your thoughts! Let's dive in! 💜 Let's kick things off with a look at the daily perspective. We've plotted the EMA 20, EMA 100, and a Triangle Pattern. Triangles are interesting because they often signal a temporary pause in the prevailing trend. This happens as buyers and sellers push against each other, causing momentum to dissipate. While triangles are fairly easy to spot, trading them can be tricky. Prices can get stuck for a while without any significant breakouts, and when a breakout finally happens, it can sometimes be a false signal, leaving traders scratching their heads. Now, let's talk about the exponential moving averages (EMAs). They're great for tracking trends because they give more weight to recent price action. Currently, the EMA 20 is above the EMA 100, indicating a clear uptrend. In this scenario, these EMAs act as dynamic support and resistance levels. The EMA 20 offers short-term support, while the EMA 100 serves as a long-term support line. Check out our tutorial on trading triangles to learn more about how to navigate these patterns: So now, let's talk about RSI - it's a pretty handy momentum indicator that's all about spotting when the market's either feeling overbought or oversold. When RSI drops below 30, we're talking oversold territory, and when it shoots past 70, we're looking at overbought conditions. Funny thing is, lots of folks get it wrong, selling when RSI's high and buying when it's low. But you know what? Sometimes the market keeps on climbing even with RSI above 70, and it can still drop lower when RSI's below 30. Now, here's a neat trick with RSI: instead of just using those standard 30 and 70 marks, we tweak it a bit. Push the upper band to 60 and lower it to 40. So, when RSI's cruising above 60, it's telling us the market's got some solid upward momentum, and when it's below 40, well, things are getting bearish momentum. Taking a peek at Bitcoin's charts, both on the daily and 4-hour timeframes, RSI seems stuck in the middle, indicating there's not much momentum swinging either way. But hey, Bitcoin can flip on a dime, right? That's why it's crucial to keep an eye on RSI, especially with the halving on the horizon. By the way, don't forget to check out our RSI tutorial! It's packed with valuable insights to help you master this powerful momentum indicator: Now, onto the SuperTrend indicator - another nifty tool for tracking trends and spotting reversals. We've fine-tuned the settings for Bitcoin, setting ATR to 5 and the multiplier to 2, based on some solid backtesting data. Looking at the daily timeframe, SuperTrend 's giving us sell signals, but hop over to the 4-hour chart, and suddenly it's flashing a buy opportunity. Thing is, though, the EMA combo still looks bullish, and RSI's not showing much oomph. So, that early SuperTrend buy signal? Might be a bit premature, you know? And here's something fascinating on the monthly timeframe: Bitcoin's showing seven straight green candles. That's unheard of! Last time we saw anything close was back in 2021, with six greens in a row during a post-halving bull market. In conclusion, April 2024 poses challenges for both buyers and sellers of Bitcoin, potentially resulting in false entries. The market likely needs to recalibrate following 7 months of growth, presenting an opportunity for early investors to capitalize on this shift. Stay informed and explore our other educational resources and posts.
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by Vestinda
2
BTC Bitcoin Halving Tomorrow!If you haven`t sold the Double TOP on Bitcoin: Then you need to know that tomorrow we have the Bitcoin Halving! What is a Bitcoin block halving event? Block halving events occur every four years or after 210,000 blocks on the Bitcoin blockchain. Initially, Bitcoin's block reward was 50 BTC. Presently, the block reward stands at 6.25 BTC, with the next reward dropping to 3.125 BTC. This reduction slows down the rate of Bitcoin generation. The halving is a programmed, periodic event embedded within Bitcoin's code. Why was this implemented? Conventional FIAT currencies often experience inflation because governments or banks can increase the money supply. In contrast, Bitcoin has a finite total supply of 21,000,000 BTC, meaning no additional coins can be generated beyond this limit. This fixed supply, coupled with potential shifts in demand as Bitcoin adoption grows, positions it similarly to gold - a resource with a restricted supply that cannot be artificially inflated. My new price target for Bitcoin after the halving is $52K.
Short
by TopgOptions
3
Whats going on with BTCUSDBITSTAMP:BTCUSD lets be "Neutral" for a second and look at whats going on in the 10H chart. There has been 2 breakout attempts, one almost made it with a resistance turned support retest and bounce near 69k but then failed miserably. On the bearish side we had, 4 bounce off the support BUT it seem that its possible the 5th time will be the charm. The trading range is ... BUY @ 67k, Stop @ 61k, Target: 76k SELL @ 61k, stop is 67k, Target is 50k Hope this helps everyone
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by UnknownUnicorn676689
⭐️ Ready, Set, Grow! Navigating the #Bitcoin Halving and Beyond!As you know, there are only 2 days and 10 hours left until #Bitcoin_halving and many are waiting to see how much Bitcoin will grow/fall after the halving ! Of course, in my opinion, after a correction, we can wait for the next upward wave of Bitcoin, and when Bitcoin is corrected or neutral, we will probably witness a new alt season! For this purpose, we will soon start examining new cryptocurrencies so that we can follow the next upward trend of this market! Note that there is a possibility of price correction up to $53,000 and $41,000. If the price falls to these ranges, you can think about buying again! The next upward targets of Bitcoin are $77,000, $85,000 and $100,000 respectively!
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
5
Be ware of upcoming Halving ! Bitcoin and Crypto AnalysisHi everyOne , The market makers always seek for liquidity and need our money to be always against them , in all previous halving people see how much market moved upward and it become trend these days. If I was a hedge fund manager , bank owner , whale or big boys or anything you called , I would push up bitcoin price into a ALL TIME HIGH before the halving , so I have many buyers in these expensive prices , begging for pullback to add on their buys , and actually after halving , I would let them play around and push price more upper , and then , when I have ALL my guests on the dinner table , I Will burn them . So guys , wait for huge bearish market that you did never see in Crypto market :)
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by Kasra_nemati_Iran
What historically happens after the Bitcoin halving?After a Bitcoin halving event, several trends typically occur: 1. Supply Reduction: The most immediate impact is a reduction in the rate of new Bitcoin creation. Halving cuts the reward miners receive for validating transactions in half, reducing the rate of Bitcoin creation. This is intended to control inflation and ultimately limit the total supply of Bitcoin to 21 million coins. 2. Price Volatility: Historically, Bitcoin prices have shown significant volatility around halving events. Leading up to the halving, there's often speculative buying as investors anticipate reduced supply. After the halving, there can be a short-term price increase or decrease as the market adjusts to the new supply dynamics. 3. Miner Behavior: Some miners may find it unprofitable to continue mining after the halving if their operational costs exceed the revenue generated by mining rewards. This could lead to a decrease in hash rate (the computational power securing the Bitcoin network) if a significant number of miners shut down their operations. 4. Market Sentiment: Halving events often generate media attention and discussions within the cryptocurrency community. Positive sentiment around the potential for scarcity-driven price increases can contribute to price rallies. 5. Long-Term Price Appreciation: Over the long term, many Bitcoin proponents believe that the reduction in the rate of new supply issuance will drive up the price of Bitcoin. This is based on the principles of supply and demand economics, where a reduced supply, coupled with steady or increasing demand, could lead to higher prices. 2016 Halving: The second Bitcoin halving occurred on July 9, 2016. In the months leading up to the halving, Bitcoin's price experienced a significant rally. After the halving, there was a period of consolidation followed by continued upward momentum in the months that followed. However, there were also short-term price corrections during this period. 2020 Halving: The third Bitcoin halving occurred on May 11, 2020. Leading up to the halving, there was considerable speculation and anticipation in the market. After the event, Bitcoin's price initially remained relatively stable, but it experienced significant volatility in the following weeks and months. Overall, Bitcoin's price trended upwards in the months following the 2020 halving, reaching new all-time highs in late 2020 and early 2021.
by TopgOptions
📈 BTC 4h - Showing signs of strengthAsset: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Timeframe: 4-hour Direction: Long Technical Analysis: Regression Channel: BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P remains bullish within an ascending regression channel, respecting the lower bound as support. Consistent bullish character maintained since the channel's formation. Order Block: Potential retest of the upper order block within the channel, offering a possible long opportunity. Target the key resistance level at 69157. Liquidity: After a significant move, potential liquidity build-up around the channel's midline suggests a continuation towards either the upper bound or a breakdown for liquidity grabs below. Fundamental Analysis Macro Risk: Geopolitical tensions (Israel-Iran) and surging gold prices suggest a flight to safe-haven assets, potentially fueling Bitcoin volatility. Bitcoin Halving: Anticipation surrounding the halving adds to the potential for explosive price action in the coming week. Trade Setup: SMC/ICT Framework: Execute trades on the 15-minute timeframe using order block and FVG (fair value gap) analysis for optimal entry and confirmation. Levels to watch: 69157, 70862, 72872 Risk Management: Essential in volatile conditions. Employ strict stop-losses and manage position sizes. Additional Notes: Confluence: Strong technical and fundamental factors converge here, supporting a potential bullish move within this context. BTC 15m currently testing the IFVG and 67235 key level *I welcome feedback and alternative perspectives from other traders. *Always consider Stop loss for your positions * Follow your own strategy ; this is just my Idea, and I welcome other points of view in the comments.
Long
by npct
Bitcoin Halving 2024 – This Time It’s DifferentREPORT HIGHLIGHTS: The fourth bitcoin halving event, scheduled on or around April 19, 2024, heralds a significant transformation in the cryptocurrency landscape. This halving, marked by the reduction of bitcoin supply subsidy, the emergence of a liquid investment ecosystem via CME Group futures and options, the advent of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the introduction of Ordinals, brings forth novel dynamics that could reshape prevailing narratives around bitcoin economics. The Halving Mechanics At its core, the quadrennial halving event entails a reduction in the reward granted to miners for each block mined on the bitcoin blockchain (the block subsidy) as determined by the bitcoin protocol. It is scheduled to occur roughly every four years, or every 210,000 blocks until the entire 21 million bitcoin supply is mined, approximately by 2140. As part of bitcoin's deflationary approach to its capped supply, the upcoming halving will reduce the bitcoin supply subsidy from 6.25 bitcoin per block to 3.125 bitcoin, fostering a more stringent supply landscape. By gradually decreasing the number of bitcoin entering into circulation, and, so long as the adoption of bitcoin grows over time, the halving mechanism ensures that the laws of supply and demand will consistently impact the value of the asset. Satoshi Nakamoto, in the bitcoin whitepaper's Incentives section, noted: “In a few decades when the reward gets too small, the transaction fee will become the main compensation for nodes. I’m sure that in 20 years, there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.” Impact on Price Dynamics Source: CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate Historically, each halving event has been accompanied by a significant surge in bitcoin price in the months preceding and following the event. Notably, in the 365 calendar days after the November 28, 2012, halving, bitcoin prices rose 8,447%, when the reward was cut from 50 bitcoin to 25 bitcoin. In the year following the July 9, 2016 halving, bitcoin prices rose a more modest, but still impressive, 283%, and the block reward was reduced to 12.5 bitcoin. In the 12 months after the May 11, 2020 halving, where the reward was cut to 6.25 bitcoin per block, bitcoin prices jumped 527%. The pre-halving rally has shown a diminishing trend over time, likely due to miners selling off their bitcoin holdings to secure profits ahead of the impeding reward reduction. Nevertheless, the historical pattern suggests the potential for bitcoin to reach new all-time highs in the aftermath of the 2024 halving. Impact of Bitcoin Spot ETFs The landscape surrounding bitcoin has evolved significantly, particularly with the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the influx of institutional capital into the market. These ETFs have generated substantial daily demand, surpassing the pace of new bitcoin supply even before the halving and have the potential to absorb a considerable portion of the limited new issuance, To put the spot Bitcoin ETF inflows into perspective, at the current rate of block rewards, the bitcoin network produces about 900 new coins per day, or around $54 million worth of bitcoin (assuming an average price per coin of $60k). In April 2024, issuance will fall to 450 coins, or about $27 million worth of bitcoin. During the month of February, net inflows into the U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs averaged $208 million per day, far outstripping the pace of new supply, even before the halving. This imbalance between new demand and limited new issuance has likely contributed to the strong upward pressure on the price. Evolution of a Large Liquid Derivatives Market The emergence of a robust, regulated derivatives market facilitated by CME Group Bitcoin futures and options marks a fundamental shift in the narrative surrounding the halving for three key reasons: it enables price risks to be hedged, facilitates the management of bitcoin demand risk and provides market participants with actionable price discovery. Miners typically sold their bitcoin for fiat currency as they mined them, to pay for operational costs. This constant selling meant that price appreciation was measured. After a halving event, miners would have fewer bitcoin to sell, meaning the price could go up. Mining is now dominated by larger, often publicly traded, companies and with a liquid regulated derivatives market, it is possible for these firms to hedge and lock in future bitcoin prices to cover expenses without selling their coins. If this is the case, then selling pressure from miners is less likely to act as a drag on bitcoin prices going forward. Through the emergence of a healthy options market, investors can take price signals and consensus estimates about market expectations. Options could allow for additional income to be earned by miners or enhance long bitcoin positions, which would further cushion the impact of the upcoming halving. A higher number of investors and traders means better liquidity and enhanced price stability for bitcoin. It’s worth noting that bitcoin has become less volatile in recent years, with fewer extreme moves both to the upside and to the downside (link to Erik.N’s article). Growing institutional participation drove Bitcoin futures average daily open interest to over $11 billion so far in March (+29,000 contracts). Year- to- date average daily volume in Bitcoin futures at CME Group is roughly $4 billion (+15,400 contracts). Large Open Interest Holders (a LOIH is any entity that holds at least 25 Bitcoin futures or Micro Bitcoin futures contracts) reached a record of 272 holders, indicating growing institutional interest for bitcoin exposure. Impact on Miners The impeding halving poses challenges and opportunities for miners, as evidenced by shifts in miner behavior and industry dynamics. Decreased bitcoin reserves held by miners, coupled with heightened competition and record high hashrates, underscore the need for operational efficiency and strategic adaptation. The number of bitcoin held in wallets associated with miners has dropped to the lowest level since July 2021, suggesting that miners are perhaps capitalizing on bitcoin's recent price surge, running down their inventory ahead of the halving or leveraging them to raise capital for upgrading machinery and mining facilities. The bitcoin hashrate, a measure of network security, is near an all-time high and a sign of high competition, meaning miners need to marshal ever more computing power to earn new rewards. The difficulty in mining a single block is also at a record, and with high energy prices, the mining landscape remains tough. In previous cycles, there weren't many large-scale miners and even fewer publicly traded ones. The halving may catalyze merger and acquisition activities among mining firms, driving industry consolidation and fostering innovation in sustainable mining practices. Several publicly listed mining firms have already indicated they will use the halving to capitalize on strategic opportunities as mining rewards decrease and competition among miners intensifies. Depending on the operational cost of each miner, less efficient, unprofitable miners may be forced to leave the network or merge with larger companies to survive. In a more competitive landscape, miners will be driven to enhance their overall operational efficiency, including machine optimization, enhanced security and best-in-class risk management practices. This could likely spur increased innovation throughout incumbent mining technologies and methodologies, ultimately benefiting the industry as a whole. As the world becomes increasingly conscious of environmental impact, bitcoin miners that are at the forefront of adopting eco-friendly, sustainable practices and renewable solutions, such as carbon capture and heat waste recycling, will likely ensure that the future of crypto aligns with global sustainability and ESG goals. The rise of Ordinals The recent surge in retail demand can be attributed in part to the rise of bitcoin Ordinals BRC 20 tokens, which are reshaping the crypto landscape. These tokens, often likened to “NFTs for Bitcoin,” have the potential to drive on-chain activity and increase transaction fees, thereby bolstering miners’ revenue streams amidst declining block rewards post-halving. Long Term Outlook Bitcoin’s designation as digital gold underscores its role as a store of value, particularly amidst the scarcity reinforced by halving events. Institutional investors who view bitcoin as a hedge against inflation may find the halving supportive of its perceived value. Shifts in central bank policies, such as prolonged higher interest rates and potential quantitative easing measures, could further bolster bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against currency devaluation. Looking ahead, the implication of bitcoin’s programmed scarcity intersecting with evolving demand dynamics remains intriguing. With 28 more halving events expected over the next 112 years, the future trajectory of bitcoin adoption and network growth warrants close monitoring – especially when broader retail and institutional access to bitcoin was only made possible in the U.S. less than 90 days ago with the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs. In conclusion, while past having cycles, with the associated price rallies offer valuable insights, the 2024 halving presents a unique confluence of factors that could usher in a new era for bitcoin. As institutional and retail interest converges with regulatory developments and macroeconomic shifts, maintaining a balanced perspective is imperative to navigating the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available on TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Payal Shah, Director of Equity Research and Product Development at CME Group. *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME:MBT1!Education
by CME_Group
9
Bitcoin (BTC) likely to selloff shortly after the 4/20 halving.Bitcoin has been on an absolute tear for the past few months, and its run from 27K to 70K+ was one with no major corrections, which is something to be cautious of. If you study the charts, you'll see that BTC generally sells off for a period after the halving (buy the rumor, sell the news) at its finest. I think we are going to see a sell-off shortly after the halving that's going to liquidate many traders who joined the party a little too late and will be major profit-taking for those who got in early, using the euphoric buying as exit liquidity. Be cautious! Good luck, and always use a stop-loss!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MetaShackle
1
BITCOIN $BTCUSD - Apr 9th, 2024 | ASCENDING TRIANGLE ON BITCOINBITCOIN BITSTAMP:BTCUSD - Apr 9th, 2024 | ASCENDING TRIANGLE ON BITCOIN BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $71000 - $83000 DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE 1 (WHITE): $68500 - $71000 DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE 2 (WHITE): $63000 - $68500 SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): $52000 - $63000 Weekly: Bullish Daily: Bullish 4H: DNT The DNT zones are separated into two and can also be used to create expanded zones for the bearish and bullish areas. The zone is split at the 68500 level because this holds structural impact on the lower timeframes and is roughly where price should create a new support level at for the ascending triangle pattern that can be seen on the Daily timeframe down to the lower timeframes. Whether price further creates bullish support or breaks through the level and down into the bearish area, the 68500 level is my main trend determination for the lower timeframes. The ascending pattern can also be seen on the Weekly but is more so shown as a tight range and does not show as much detail as the Daily and 4H pattern did. My main focus for looking for entries is going to be on the 4H timeframe and try to follow the chart pattern of the ascending triangle, whether it respects it or breaks it. The bearish target was determined by where previous bullish momentum had started, about a 17% drop from the start of the bearish area. The bullish target was made to roughly match the same percentage distance as the bearish target, which is where the 83000 level came from. Previous CRYPTOCAP:BTC analysis is linked below! This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas. ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE! trendanalysis, trendtrading, priceaction, priceactiontrading, technical indicators, support and resistance, bitcoin, bitcoin price, bitcoin halving, btcusd, btc, CRYPTOCAP:BTC , BITSTAMP:BTCUSD , bitcointrades, bitcoinlong, btcusdlong, bitcoinshort, btcusdshort, bitcoinanalysis, bitcointrend, bitcoinrange, bitcointriangle, triangle, ascendingtriangle, chartpatterns, trianglechart, ascendingtrianglebreakout, chartpatternbitcoin, bitcointriangle, bitcoinhalvingschedule, bitcoinbreakout, bitcoinrange, bitcoinrangebreakout, triangularpattern, flag, bitcoinpatterns, bitcoinchartpatterns, btcpatterns, btctriangletrade, btctrianble, btctrend, btctrades, btclong, btcshort, btcrange, btcbreakout, btcbreakdown,
IBKR:BTCUSD
by TonyAiello
Bitcoin Halving Thesis - Cycle Top and Bottom w/ TargetsI’ve been tracking the Bitcoin Halving Cycle for many many moons, trying to analyze as many patterns as possible to give me confluence in a signal for this cycle’s top and bottom. There’s five that I will focus on in this thread: 1. Trough to Peak 2. Halving to Peak 3. Peak to Trough 4. Trough to Trough 5. Fibonacci Extension Note, I do not take the 1st Halving in 2012 into much consideration as it was a very immature market with a novel technology. There was obviously no market data prior to this Halving to base any TA on, so that’s another kicker. Technical Analysis is a self-fulfilling prophecy after-all. Evidence in this bias comes from the past two cycles being nearly identical in all of the aforementioned. The Halving Cycles I will focus on start in Jan. 2015 with the Trough to Peak being 1,068 Days. We then have a 363D Peak to Trough from Dec. 2017 to Dec. 2018. It is similarly 1,059D from Trough to Peak in Nov. 2021 (-9D difference), and 378 Days back down from the Peak to Trough (+15D difference). If we continue this Trough to Peak pattern of -9D difference adding 1,050D, that will put this Cycle Peak ~Oct. 6, 2025. The Peak to Trough pattern of +15D with 393D would put our Cycle Bottom ~Nov. 3, 2026. Now let’s look at the Halving to Peak. The last two Halving Cycles follow similar patterns again, while the first Halving does not. 2016-17 is 526D Halving to Peak, and 2020-21 is 546D, with a difference of +20D. For the upcoming 2024 Halving ~Apr 22, 566D puts this Cycle’s Peak at Nov. 9, 2025. This correlates with the Trough to Peak Oct. 6 date to give us a 1 month range. Next we’ll see the past two Halving Cycles Trough to Trough are highly correlated once again, whereas 2012 is not. 2015-18 it was 1,430D T to T. 2018-22 more closely resembles this cycle with 1,438D and a difference of 8D. Following this pattern for 2022-26, adding on 1,446D would confirm the cycle’s bottom ~Nov. 6, 2026. That’s a 3D difference that we discovered in the Peak to Trough pattern. The last thing I will cover is the Q3 2025 Price Target that I have found using the Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension. Using this Fib from the 2015 low to 2017 high gives us a 3.618 level that is almost spot on with the 2021 Cycle Peak! Using this again from the 2018 low to 2021 high, it would put the 3.618 ~240k. I’m not a fan of round numbers and would say $235k would be a bit more conservative to price the top. I’ll be following this cycle very closely to see how this plays out and will share my analysis if the market detours from my thesis. The point of this analysis is not to pick an exact date or price to sell, but to give a general range so you can be well prepared for when it happens. I’ll most likely be selling CRYPTOCAP:BTC around the $200k range or Aug. - Sept 2025, whatever comes first, just to get ahead of the market. I would rather miss out on those last gains on the way up than try to frantically exit on the way down. If you enjoyed this analysis make sure to give me a follow and turn on notifications so that you can stay up to date with it. Also Bookmark this thread so that you can come back for future reference Happy Trading! ~FIN~ JK 👑
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by jonnieking
6
Trading the Bitcoin halving: What trader’s need to knowThe clock ticks down to the Bitcoin halving, which is expected between 19-21 April , with anticipation building that the event could be the next known catalyst to propel the Bitcoin price to new highs. The question for Bitcoin CFD traders is two-fold: 1. Will the ensuing price action (post-halving) be different from the three prior halving cycles? 2. Will there be any noticeable changes in the trading environment at or around halving? Background At the heart of Bitcoin’s ecosystem, Bitcoin miners (individuals, groups, companies) use incredible computational power and energy, competing to solve an ever-changing cryptographic puzzle. When an entity is fortunate enough to calculate and solve the puzzle as proof of work the outcome, they gain the privilege of adding a block (of transactions) to the blockchain. The subsequent reward for adding a block to the blockchain is bitcoin (BTC). It is where all speculation and investment in BTC begins. For every 210k blocks that are verified (which typically takes four years to play out), we see the number of new Bitcoins that can be created cut by 50%, as is the reward to miners; Hence the term the ‘halving’. In 2009 the number of coins available to be mined stood at 21m and the reward for a miner showing proof of work stood at 50 Bitcoins (BTC). Post 2012 halving the number of coins that could be mined was reduced to 10.5m with the reward set at 25 BTC. In 2016 this fell 50% to 5.25m coins, with 12.5 BTC as the reward, and in 2020 2.625m and 6.25 BTC. At the upcoming halving, the number of new Bitcoins that can be mined will fall to 1.313m and the reward for a miner showing proof of work falling to 3.125 Bitcoin’s. Essentially, this four-year cycle will continue until the final halving plays out in the year 2140 when the block reward falls to 0 and all 21m coins are pushed into circulation. Hence, BTC has a scarcity value which underpins the longer-term investment case. The impact on BTC miners With changes in energy costs, falling fees (paid to miners), the complexity of the cryptographic puzzles increasing and half the reward on offer for proof of work, invariably there will be miners who halt operations as their margins will become too skinny and even unprofitable. Of course, mining entities can look to reduce their input costs to stay in the game, and a higher BTC price will also offset the reduced reward on offer, but we will see miners drop out. In this dynamic, the ‘hash rate’ (essentially the number of guesses attempted per second to solve a puzzle) will likely fall. In fact, one could argue the recent pullback in the BTC price is in anticipation of a lower hash rate, which could also have big implications for the BTC ecosystem. Notably, a lower hash rate increases the concentration risk (few miners ultimately capture more of the BTC available), making the system less robust. The history of halvings We have seen three prior halvings in 2012, 2016 and 2020 and while this is not a significant sample size the staggering gains in the ensuing 12 months can be logically explained by the reduction in supply. Moves in BTC in 2012, 2016 and 2020 28 Nov 2012 40 days into halving -4.2% 10 days into halving +13% 10 days after halving +11% 365 days after halving +8447% 9 July 2016 40 days into halving +45% 10 days into halving -1% 10 days after halving +1% 365 days after halving +290% 11 May 2020 40 days into halving +36% 10 days into halving -1.2% 10 days after halving +5% 365 days after halving +559% As has also been the case in 2024, in prior halvings BTC ran hard in the months before the halving date, with the price then subsequently pulling back into the event. Once the halving played out in 2020 and 2012, we saw a strong performance in the BTC price, but this wasn’t the case in 2016, so it is hard to really say with conviction that the halvings had any noticeable immediate impact. Is this time therefore different? At its most simplistic nothing really changes from the fact that if you reduce supply, at a time when broad demand and adoption are increasing – like it is presently - then you get a move higher in price. That is as true now as it was in 2012, 2016 and 2020. Increasing the scarcity of an asset typically leads to upside momentum in price. Where things have changed greatly and why this time could well be different are: • While many TradFi traders are still brushing up on their understanding of the halving, the big players in the crypto scene have a thorough understanding of the halving and are well aware of the risk and opportunity and are positioned for it. • There has been a sizeable increase in institutional participation that is vastly different from episodes in 2012,2016 and 2020 and is fitting with the evolution in the range of vehicles to trade and invest in BTC. New products, such as the BTC cash ETF have increased awareness, and institutional involvement, while we also see a greater influence from derivatives which are changing the structure and intraday flows. • Liquidity - the ease by which an order can be filled - has improved significantly in the past two years. The depth of liquidity has important implications as to the extent of any changes in price. Typically, increased liquidity results in lower percentage changes over a period. • In the past few years, we’ve seen a significant reduction in the cost to trade BTC – this reduces the drag on the portfolio but improves liquidity in the underlying market. • The number of daily transactions on the Bitcoin network is many multiples of what they were in 2012-2016. • Increased regulatory scrutiny, KYC, and monitoring. Will there be a change in the trading environment? As we look at the countdown clock to the exact moment of the halving, but unlike a US CPI print or FOMC meeting, it is incredibly unlikely we get a sudden knee-jerk reaction in the BTC price once the reward for miners is cut in half. Why should it? If we know the outcome there should be no surprises. Case in point, as we saw in the last halving in 2020 (and as shown above), on the day of the halving price action proved to be uneventful, although we did see volatility in the days leading into the event. As was the case in 2012 and 2020 in the days following the halving the buyers stepped in and we saw a solid rally emerge. Some will now be watching the hash rate closely to see if this is affected, but we also need to consider that BTC and the wider alt-coins space have been trading as a high beta risk asset – i.e. the NAS100 rallies 1%, and then BTC often gains 3%+. So if do see the NAS100 sell-off this will likely affect BTC regardless of changing supply dynamics derived from the halving. We can clearly see that BTC has underperformed US equity markets since mid-March, which is fitting with prior halving cycles. Perhaps this lends weight to the idea that post-halving BTC will have a cleaner positioning structure and the bulls could have more impetus to push for a run higher in the days post halving. The trade? As we see on the 4-hour chart, the key level to focus on this time around is the horizontal support into 61,200 to 60769. Should it get to this key support zone, then the bulls will want to see this aggressively defended, as a closing break could see 59,415 come into play, perhaps even the 50-day MA at 58,382. Conversely, I’d want to see an upside break of 68,305 to feel compelled to initiate momentum longs. The halving is a clear event risk for BTC and the alt scene, so it’s worth being aware of what’s involved. As always, an open mind and a strong willingness to react to price action will serve us well as traders.
PEPPERSTONE:BTCUSDLong
by Pepperstone
Bitcoins newer all time highOn the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin appears to be within a distinct channel. This week, it experienced a decline, reaching the 65654 support level at the channel's bottom before rebounding. Currently, it has bounced off the 67562 support and is heading upwards. If it breaks above 69005, it could revisit all-time highs. Back on March 3rd, Bitcoin formed a flag pattern before reaching its previous all-time highs. Considering the length of the candlestick pole to the flag pattern, I anticipate Bitcoin may reach 75000 before a downturn, potentially returning to the support trend line around 54670.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by samstoobad
Bitcoin Analysis: Big and LongBitcoin has recently showcased its resilience, surging past the significant $31,000 mark. This breakthrough is not a mere coincidence; it's a part of a grander design in the crypto market. If your preview is distorted here is image copy of this analysis: Let's delve into the intricacies of this upward momentum: 1. Halving's Influence: One of essential factors in Bitcoin's trajectory is the phenomenon of halving. Bitcoin halving events have historically influenced supply and demand dynamics, often leading to significant price rallies. As we approach the halving period, this historic pattern adds an extra layer of confidence to the current bullish sentiment. 2. Impulse Structure and Rising Channel: Bitcoin is painting a compelling picture on the daily timeframe. Within a substantial impulse structure, a rising channel is emerging. This channel indicates a positive trajectory, reflective of market confidence. 3. Third Wave Speculation: Within this structure, the market is now poised for what appears to be the third wave, a potentially substantial wave marked by extensions. The current expectations are set on a retreat to $30,000, acting as a pivot point for the forthcoming surge, with the next ambitious target resting comfortably at $50,000. 4. Wyckoff Accumulation Pattern: Bitcoin's strength lies in its Wyckoff accumulation pattern. Though subtle, this continuous weakness exhibits a steady and robust progression, making it a quite unique pattern among other accumulation patterns (cup and handle, saucer etc). 5. Bollinger Bands Width Squeeze: A striking observation is the Bollinger Bands width, reaching a low not witnessed since the market bottom of 2014. This rarity accentuates Bitcoin's growth potential, serving as a strong indicator for investors. 6. Historical Comparisons: By comparing the current market behavior with the patterns observed in 2015-2016, a striking resemblance emerges. This historical congruence enhances our confidence in the ongoing trend, providing a solid foundation for the $50,000 target. 7. Institutional Interest: With each positive move, the market gains momentum. It's not just individual investors; institutional players are also recognizing Bitcoin's potential. The imminent approval of a Bitcoin ETF promises to be a game-changer. This financial instrument bridges the gap between traditional markets and cryptocurrencies, rendering Bitcoin accessible to a broader investor base. The ETF's advent not only signifies regulatory acknowledgment but also invites a wave of retail participation. The anticipation is that as we approach the holiday season, institutional investors will further solidify this upward trajectory. In essence, the recent surge beyond $31,000 signifies a strategic move in the crypto chessboard. As we navigate this rising channel, the road ahead holds promise, with the $50,000 mark gleaming on the horizon. Adding to this momentum, RSI (Relative Strength Index) is showing both Bullish and Hidden Bullish divergence alongside the development of the rising channel. These signals align, painting a robust picture for Bitcoin's price increase. Your support means the world to me! ❤️ Liking and commenting is a free, wonderful way to keep me motivated and help my work reach more enthusiasts like you. Plus, I'm genuinely curious: which tokens/coins have piqued your interest lately? Share your thoughts in the comment box below! Let's start a conversation! Stay tuned!
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by ArShevelev
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