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Bitcoinhalving

Be ware of upcoming Halving ! Bitcoin and Crypto AnalysisHi everyOne , The market makers always seek for liquidity and need our money to be always against them , in all previous halving people see how much market moved upward and it become trend these days. If I was a hedge fund manager , bank owner , whale or big boys or anything you called , I would push up bitcoin price into a ALL TIME HIGH before the halving , so I have many buyers in these expensive prices , begging for pullback to add on their buys , and actually after halving , I would let them play around and push price more upper , and then , when I have ALL my guests on the dinner table , I Will burn them . So guys , wait for huge bearish market that you did never see in Crypto market :)
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by Kasra_nemati_Iran
What historically happens after the Bitcoin halving?After a Bitcoin halving event, several trends typically occur: 1. Supply Reduction: The most immediate impact is a reduction in the rate of new Bitcoin creation. Halving cuts the reward miners receive for validating transactions in half, reducing the rate of Bitcoin creation. This is intended to control inflation and ultimately limit the total supply of Bitcoin to 21 million coins. 2. Price Volatility: Historically, Bitcoin prices have shown significant volatility around halving events. Leading up to the halving, there's often speculative buying as investors anticipate reduced supply. After the halving, there can be a short-term price increase or decrease as the market adjusts to the new supply dynamics. 3. Miner Behavior: Some miners may find it unprofitable to continue mining after the halving if their operational costs exceed the revenue generated by mining rewards. This could lead to a decrease in hash rate (the computational power securing the Bitcoin network) if a significant number of miners shut down their operations. 4. Market Sentiment: Halving events often generate media attention and discussions within the cryptocurrency community. Positive sentiment around the potential for scarcity-driven price increases can contribute to price rallies. 5. Long-Term Price Appreciation: Over the long term, many Bitcoin proponents believe that the reduction in the rate of new supply issuance will drive up the price of Bitcoin. This is based on the principles of supply and demand economics, where a reduced supply, coupled with steady or increasing demand, could lead to higher prices. 2016 Halving: The second Bitcoin halving occurred on July 9, 2016. In the months leading up to the halving, Bitcoin's price experienced a significant rally. After the halving, there was a period of consolidation followed by continued upward momentum in the months that followed. However, there were also short-term price corrections during this period. 2020 Halving: The third Bitcoin halving occurred on May 11, 2020. Leading up to the halving, there was considerable speculation and anticipation in the market. After the event, Bitcoin's price initially remained relatively stable, but it experienced significant volatility in the following weeks and months. Overall, Bitcoin's price trended upwards in the months following the 2020 halving, reaching new all-time highs in late 2020 and early 2021.
by TopgOptions
📈 BTC 4h - Showing signs of strengthAsset: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Timeframe: 4-hour Direction: Long Technical Analysis: Regression Channel: BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P remains bullish within an ascending regression channel, respecting the lower bound as support. Consistent bullish character maintained since the channel's formation. Order Block: Potential retest of the upper order block within the channel, offering a possible long opportunity. Target the key resistance level at 69157. Liquidity: After a significant move, potential liquidity build-up around the channel's midline suggests a continuation towards either the upper bound or a breakdown for liquidity grabs below. Fundamental Analysis Macro Risk: Geopolitical tensions (Israel-Iran) and surging gold prices suggest a flight to safe-haven assets, potentially fueling Bitcoin volatility. Bitcoin Halving: Anticipation surrounding the halving adds to the potential for explosive price action in the coming week. Trade Setup: SMC/ICT Framework: Execute trades on the 15-minute timeframe using order block and FVG (fair value gap) analysis for optimal entry and confirmation. Levels to watch: 69157, 70862, 72872 Risk Management: Essential in volatile conditions. Employ strict stop-losses and manage position sizes. Additional Notes: Confluence: Strong technical and fundamental factors converge here, supporting a potential bullish move within this context. BTC 15m currently testing the IFVG and 67235 key level *I welcome feedback and alternative perspectives from other traders. *Always consider Stop loss for your positions * Follow your own strategy ; this is just my Idea, and I welcome other points of view in the comments.
Long
by npct
Bitcoin Halving 2024 – This Time It’s DifferentREPORT HIGHLIGHTS: The fourth bitcoin halving event, scheduled on or around April 19, 2024, heralds a significant transformation in the cryptocurrency landscape. This halving, marked by the reduction of bitcoin supply subsidy, the emergence of a liquid investment ecosystem via CME Group futures and options, the advent of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the introduction of Ordinals, brings forth novel dynamics that could reshape prevailing narratives around bitcoin economics. The Halving Mechanics At its core, the quadrennial halving event entails a reduction in the reward granted to miners for each block mined on the bitcoin blockchain (the block subsidy) as determined by the bitcoin protocol. It is scheduled to occur roughly every four years, or every 210,000 blocks until the entire 21 million bitcoin supply is mined, approximately by 2140. As part of bitcoin's deflationary approach to its capped supply, the upcoming halving will reduce the bitcoin supply subsidy from 6.25 bitcoin per block to 3.125 bitcoin, fostering a more stringent supply landscape. By gradually decreasing the number of bitcoin entering into circulation, and, so long as the adoption of bitcoin grows over time, the halving mechanism ensures that the laws of supply and demand will consistently impact the value of the asset. Satoshi Nakamoto, in the bitcoin whitepaper's Incentives section, noted: “In a few decades when the reward gets too small, the transaction fee will become the main compensation for nodes. I’m sure that in 20 years, there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.” Impact on Price Dynamics Source: CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate Historically, each halving event has been accompanied by a significant surge in bitcoin price in the months preceding and following the event. Notably, in the 365 calendar days after the November 28, 2012, halving, bitcoin prices rose 8,447%, when the reward was cut from 50 bitcoin to 25 bitcoin. In the year following the July 9, 2016 halving, bitcoin prices rose a more modest, but still impressive, 283%, and the block reward was reduced to 12.5 bitcoin. In the 12 months after the May 11, 2020 halving, where the reward was cut to 6.25 bitcoin per block, bitcoin prices jumped 527%. The pre-halving rally has shown a diminishing trend over time, likely due to miners selling off their bitcoin holdings to secure profits ahead of the impeding reward reduction. Nevertheless, the historical pattern suggests the potential for bitcoin to reach new all-time highs in the aftermath of the 2024 halving. Impact of Bitcoin Spot ETFs The landscape surrounding bitcoin has evolved significantly, particularly with the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the influx of institutional capital into the market. These ETFs have generated substantial daily demand, surpassing the pace of new bitcoin supply even before the halving and have the potential to absorb a considerable portion of the limited new issuance, To put the spot Bitcoin ETF inflows into perspective, at the current rate of block rewards, the bitcoin network produces about 900 new coins per day, or around $54 million worth of bitcoin (assuming an average price per coin of $60k). In April 2024, issuance will fall to 450 coins, or about $27 million worth of bitcoin. During the month of February, net inflows into the U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs averaged $208 million per day, far outstripping the pace of new supply, even before the halving. This imbalance between new demand and limited new issuance has likely contributed to the strong upward pressure on the price. Evolution of a Large Liquid Derivatives Market The emergence of a robust, regulated derivatives market facilitated by CME Group Bitcoin futures and options marks a fundamental shift in the narrative surrounding the halving for three key reasons: it enables price risks to be hedged, facilitates the management of bitcoin demand risk and provides market participants with actionable price discovery. Miners typically sold their bitcoin for fiat currency as they mined them, to pay for operational costs. This constant selling meant that price appreciation was measured. After a halving event, miners would have fewer bitcoin to sell, meaning the price could go up. Mining is now dominated by larger, often publicly traded, companies and with a liquid regulated derivatives market, it is possible for these firms to hedge and lock in future bitcoin prices to cover expenses without selling their coins. If this is the case, then selling pressure from miners is less likely to act as a drag on bitcoin prices going forward. Through the emergence of a healthy options market, investors can take price signals and consensus estimates about market expectations. Options could allow for additional income to be earned by miners or enhance long bitcoin positions, which would further cushion the impact of the upcoming halving. A higher number of investors and traders means better liquidity and enhanced price stability for bitcoin. It’s worth noting that bitcoin has become less volatile in recent years, with fewer extreme moves both to the upside and to the downside (link to Erik.N’s article). Growing institutional participation drove Bitcoin futures average daily open interest to over $11 billion so far in March (+29,000 contracts). Year- to- date average daily volume in Bitcoin futures at CME Group is roughly $4 billion (+15,400 contracts). Large Open Interest Holders (a LOIH is any entity that holds at least 25 Bitcoin futures or Micro Bitcoin futures contracts) reached a record of 272 holders, indicating growing institutional interest for bitcoin exposure. Impact on Miners The impeding halving poses challenges and opportunities for miners, as evidenced by shifts in miner behavior and industry dynamics. Decreased bitcoin reserves held by miners, coupled with heightened competition and record high hashrates, underscore the need for operational efficiency and strategic adaptation. The number of bitcoin held in wallets associated with miners has dropped to the lowest level since July 2021, suggesting that miners are perhaps capitalizing on bitcoin's recent price surge, running down their inventory ahead of the halving or leveraging them to raise capital for upgrading machinery and mining facilities. The bitcoin hashrate, a measure of network security, is near an all-time high and a sign of high competition, meaning miners need to marshal ever more computing power to earn new rewards. The difficulty in mining a single block is also at a record, and with high energy prices, the mining landscape remains tough. In previous cycles, there weren't many large-scale miners and even fewer publicly traded ones. The halving may catalyze merger and acquisition activities among mining firms, driving industry consolidation and fostering innovation in sustainable mining practices. Several publicly listed mining firms have already indicated they will use the halving to capitalize on strategic opportunities as mining rewards decrease and competition among miners intensifies. Depending on the operational cost of each miner, less efficient, unprofitable miners may be forced to leave the network or merge with larger companies to survive. In a more competitive landscape, miners will be driven to enhance their overall operational efficiency, including machine optimization, enhanced security and best-in-class risk management practices. This could likely spur increased innovation throughout incumbent mining technologies and methodologies, ultimately benefiting the industry as a whole. As the world becomes increasingly conscious of environmental impact, bitcoin miners that are at the forefront of adopting eco-friendly, sustainable practices and renewable solutions, such as carbon capture and heat waste recycling, will likely ensure that the future of crypto aligns with global sustainability and ESG goals. The rise of Ordinals The recent surge in retail demand can be attributed in part to the rise of bitcoin Ordinals BRC 20 tokens, which are reshaping the crypto landscape. These tokens, often likened to “NFTs for Bitcoin,” have the potential to drive on-chain activity and increase transaction fees, thereby bolstering miners’ revenue streams amidst declining block rewards post-halving. Long Term Outlook Bitcoin’s designation as digital gold underscores its role as a store of value, particularly amidst the scarcity reinforced by halving events. Institutional investors who view bitcoin as a hedge against inflation may find the halving supportive of its perceived value. Shifts in central bank policies, such as prolonged higher interest rates and potential quantitative easing measures, could further bolster bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against currency devaluation. Looking ahead, the implication of bitcoin’s programmed scarcity intersecting with evolving demand dynamics remains intriguing. With 28 more halving events expected over the next 112 years, the future trajectory of bitcoin adoption and network growth warrants close monitoring – especially when broader retail and institutional access to bitcoin was only made possible in the U.S. less than 90 days ago with the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs. In conclusion, while past having cycles, with the associated price rallies offer valuable insights, the 2024 halving presents a unique confluence of factors that could usher in a new era for bitcoin. As institutional and retail interest converges with regulatory developments and macroeconomic shifts, maintaining a balanced perspective is imperative to navigating the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available on TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Payal Shah, Director of Equity Research and Product Development at CME Group. *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
Editors' picks
CME:MBT1!Education
by CME_Group
9
Bitcoin (BTC) likely to selloff shortly after the 4/20 halving.Bitcoin has been on an absolute tear for the past few months, and its run from 27K to 70K+ was one with no major corrections, which is something to be cautious of. If you study the charts, you'll see that BTC generally sells off for a period after the halving (buy the rumor, sell the news) at its finest. I think we are going to see a sell-off shortly after the halving that's going to liquidate many traders who joined the party a little too late and will be major profit-taking for those who got in early, using the euphoric buying as exit liquidity. Be cautious! Good luck, and always use a stop-loss!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MetaShackle
1
BITCOIN $BTCUSD - Apr 9th, 2024 | ASCENDING TRIANGLE ON BITCOINBITCOIN BITSTAMP:BTCUSD - Apr 9th, 2024 | ASCENDING TRIANGLE ON BITCOIN BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $71000 - $83000 DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE 1 (WHITE): $68500 - $71000 DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE 2 (WHITE): $63000 - $68500 SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): $52000 - $63000 Weekly: Bullish Daily: Bullish 4H: DNT The DNT zones are separated into two and can also be used to create expanded zones for the bearish and bullish areas. The zone is split at the 68500 level because this holds structural impact on the lower timeframes and is roughly where price should create a new support level at for the ascending triangle pattern that can be seen on the Daily timeframe down to the lower timeframes. Whether price further creates bullish support or breaks through the level and down into the bearish area, the 68500 level is my main trend determination for the lower timeframes. The ascending pattern can also be seen on the Weekly but is more so shown as a tight range and does not show as much detail as the Daily and 4H pattern did. My main focus for looking for entries is going to be on the 4H timeframe and try to follow the chart pattern of the ascending triangle, whether it respects it or breaks it. The bearish target was determined by where previous bullish momentum had started, about a 17% drop from the start of the bearish area. The bullish target was made to roughly match the same percentage distance as the bearish target, which is where the 83000 level came from. Previous CRYPTOCAP:BTC analysis is linked below! This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas. ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE! trendanalysis, trendtrading, priceaction, priceactiontrading, technical indicators, support and resistance, bitcoin, bitcoin price, bitcoin halving, btcusd, btc, CRYPTOCAP:BTC , BITSTAMP:BTCUSD , bitcointrades, bitcoinlong, btcusdlong, bitcoinshort, btcusdshort, bitcoinanalysis, bitcointrend, bitcoinrange, bitcointriangle, triangle, ascendingtriangle, chartpatterns, trianglechart, ascendingtrianglebreakout, chartpatternbitcoin, bitcointriangle, bitcoinhalvingschedule, bitcoinbreakout, bitcoinrange, bitcoinrangebreakout, triangularpattern, flag, bitcoinpatterns, bitcoinchartpatterns, btcpatterns, btctriangletrade, btctrianble, btctrend, btctrades, btclong, btcshort, btcrange, btcbreakout, btcbreakdown,
IBKR:BTCUSD
by TonyAiello
Bitcoin Halving Thesis - Cycle Top and Bottom w/ TargetsI’ve been tracking the Bitcoin Halving Cycle for many many moons, trying to analyze as many patterns as possible to give me confluence in a signal for this cycle’s top and bottom. There’s five that I will focus on in this thread: 1. Trough to Peak 2. Halving to Peak 3. Peak to Trough 4. Trough to Trough 5. Fibonacci Extension Note, I do not take the 1st Halving in 2012 into much consideration as it was a very immature market with a novel technology. There was obviously no market data prior to this Halving to base any TA on, so that’s another kicker. Technical Analysis is a self-fulfilling prophecy after-all. Evidence in this bias comes from the past two cycles being nearly identical in all of the aforementioned. The Halving Cycles I will focus on start in Jan. 2015 with the Trough to Peak being 1,068 Days. We then have a 363D Peak to Trough from Dec. 2017 to Dec. 2018. It is similarly 1,059D from Trough to Peak in Nov. 2021 (-9D difference), and 378 Days back down from the Peak to Trough (+15D difference). If we continue this Trough to Peak pattern of -9D difference adding 1,050D, that will put this Cycle Peak ~Oct. 6, 2025. The Peak to Trough pattern of +15D with 393D would put our Cycle Bottom ~Nov. 3, 2026. Now let’s look at the Halving to Peak. The last two Halving Cycles follow similar patterns again, while the first Halving does not. 2016-17 is 526D Halving to Peak, and 2020-21 is 546D, with a difference of +20D. For the upcoming 2024 Halving ~Apr 22, 566D puts this Cycle’s Peak at Nov. 9, 2025. This correlates with the Trough to Peak Oct. 6 date to give us a 1 month range. Next we’ll see the past two Halving Cycles Trough to Trough are highly correlated once again, whereas 2012 is not. 2015-18 it was 1,430D T to T. 2018-22 more closely resembles this cycle with 1,438D and a difference of 8D. Following this pattern for 2022-26, adding on 1,446D would confirm the cycle’s bottom ~Nov. 6, 2026. That’s a 3D difference that we discovered in the Peak to Trough pattern. The last thing I will cover is the Q3 2025 Price Target that I have found using the Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension. Using this Fib from the 2015 low to 2017 high gives us a 3.618 level that is almost spot on with the 2021 Cycle Peak! Using this again from the 2018 low to 2021 high, it would put the 3.618 ~240k. I’m not a fan of round numbers and would say $235k would be a bit more conservative to price the top. I’ll be following this cycle very closely to see how this plays out and will share my analysis if the market detours from my thesis. The point of this analysis is not to pick an exact date or price to sell, but to give a general range so you can be well prepared for when it happens. I’ll most likely be selling CRYPTOCAP:BTC around the $200k range or Aug. - Sept 2025, whatever comes first, just to get ahead of the market. I would rather miss out on those last gains on the way up than try to frantically exit on the way down. If you enjoyed this analysis make sure to give me a follow and turn on notifications so that you can stay up to date with it. Also Bookmark this thread so that you can come back for future reference Happy Trading! ~FIN~ JK 👑
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by jonnieking
6
Trading the Bitcoin halving: What trader’s need to knowThe clock ticks down to the Bitcoin halving, which is expected between 19-21 April , with anticipation building that the event could be the next known catalyst to propel the Bitcoin price to new highs. The question for Bitcoin CFD traders is two-fold: 1. Will the ensuing price action (post-halving) be different from the three prior halving cycles? 2. Will there be any noticeable changes in the trading environment at or around halving? Background At the heart of Bitcoin’s ecosystem, Bitcoin miners (individuals, groups, companies) use incredible computational power and energy, competing to solve an ever-changing cryptographic puzzle. When an entity is fortunate enough to calculate and solve the puzzle as proof of work the outcome, they gain the privilege of adding a block (of transactions) to the blockchain. The subsequent reward for adding a block to the blockchain is bitcoin (BTC). It is where all speculation and investment in BTC begins. For every 210k blocks that are verified (which typically takes four years to play out), we see the number of new Bitcoins that can be created cut by 50%, as is the reward to miners; Hence the term the ‘halving’. In 2009 the number of coins available to be mined stood at 21m and the reward for a miner showing proof of work stood at 50 Bitcoins (BTC). Post 2012 halving the number of coins that could be mined was reduced to 10.5m with the reward set at 25 BTC. In 2016 this fell 50% to 5.25m coins, with 12.5 BTC as the reward, and in 2020 2.625m and 6.25 BTC. At the upcoming halving, the number of new Bitcoins that can be mined will fall to 1.313m and the reward for a miner showing proof of work falling to 3.125 Bitcoin’s. Essentially, this four-year cycle will continue until the final halving plays out in the year 2140 when the block reward falls to 0 and all 21m coins are pushed into circulation. Hence, BTC has a scarcity value which underpins the longer-term investment case. The impact on BTC miners With changes in energy costs, falling fees (paid to miners), the complexity of the cryptographic puzzles increasing and half the reward on offer for proof of work, invariably there will be miners who halt operations as their margins will become too skinny and even unprofitable. Of course, mining entities can look to reduce their input costs to stay in the game, and a higher BTC price will also offset the reduced reward on offer, but we will see miners drop out. In this dynamic, the ‘hash rate’ (essentially the number of guesses attempted per second to solve a puzzle) will likely fall. In fact, one could argue the recent pullback in the BTC price is in anticipation of a lower hash rate, which could also have big implications for the BTC ecosystem. Notably, a lower hash rate increases the concentration risk (few miners ultimately capture more of the BTC available), making the system less robust. The history of halvings We have seen three prior halvings in 2012, 2016 and 2020 and while this is not a significant sample size the staggering gains in the ensuing 12 months can be logically explained by the reduction in supply. Moves in BTC in 2012, 2016 and 2020 28 Nov 2012 40 days into halving -4.2% 10 days into halving +13% 10 days after halving +11% 365 days after halving +8447% 9 July 2016 40 days into halving +45% 10 days into halving -1% 10 days after halving +1% 365 days after halving +290% 11 May 2020 40 days into halving +36% 10 days into halving -1.2% 10 days after halving +5% 365 days after halving +559% As has also been the case in 2024, in prior halvings BTC ran hard in the months before the halving date, with the price then subsequently pulling back into the event. Once the halving played out in 2020 and 2012, we saw a strong performance in the BTC price, but this wasn’t the case in 2016, so it is hard to really say with conviction that the halvings had any noticeable immediate impact. Is this time therefore different? At its most simplistic nothing really changes from the fact that if you reduce supply, at a time when broad demand and adoption are increasing – like it is presently - then you get a move higher in price. That is as true now as it was in 2012, 2016 and 2020. Increasing the scarcity of an asset typically leads to upside momentum in price. Where things have changed greatly and why this time could well be different are: • While many TradFi traders are still brushing up on their understanding of the halving, the big players in the crypto scene have a thorough understanding of the halving and are well aware of the risk and opportunity and are positioned for it. • There has been a sizeable increase in institutional participation that is vastly different from episodes in 2012,2016 and 2020 and is fitting with the evolution in the range of vehicles to trade and invest in BTC. New products, such as the BTC cash ETF have increased awareness, and institutional involvement, while we also see a greater influence from derivatives which are changing the structure and intraday flows. • Liquidity - the ease by which an order can be filled - has improved significantly in the past two years. The depth of liquidity has important implications as to the extent of any changes in price. Typically, increased liquidity results in lower percentage changes over a period. • In the past few years, we’ve seen a significant reduction in the cost to trade BTC – this reduces the drag on the portfolio but improves liquidity in the underlying market. • The number of daily transactions on the Bitcoin network is many multiples of what they were in 2012-2016. • Increased regulatory scrutiny, KYC, and monitoring. Will there be a change in the trading environment? As we look at the countdown clock to the exact moment of the halving, but unlike a US CPI print or FOMC meeting, it is incredibly unlikely we get a sudden knee-jerk reaction in the BTC price once the reward for miners is cut in half. Why should it? If we know the outcome there should be no surprises. Case in point, as we saw in the last halving in 2020 (and as shown above), on the day of the halving price action proved to be uneventful, although we did see volatility in the days leading into the event. As was the case in 2012 and 2020 in the days following the halving the buyers stepped in and we saw a solid rally emerge. Some will now be watching the hash rate closely to see if this is affected, but we also need to consider that BTC and the wider alt-coins space have been trading as a high beta risk asset – i.e. the NAS100 rallies 1%, and then BTC often gains 3%+. So if do see the NAS100 sell-off this will likely affect BTC regardless of changing supply dynamics derived from the halving. We can clearly see that BTC has underperformed US equity markets since mid-March, which is fitting with prior halving cycles. Perhaps this lends weight to the idea that post-halving BTC will have a cleaner positioning structure and the bulls could have more impetus to push for a run higher in the days post halving. The trade? As we see on the 4-hour chart, the key level to focus on this time around is the horizontal support into 61,200 to 60769. Should it get to this key support zone, then the bulls will want to see this aggressively defended, as a closing break could see 59,415 come into play, perhaps even the 50-day MA at 58,382. Conversely, I’d want to see an upside break of 68,305 to feel compelled to initiate momentum longs. The halving is a clear event risk for BTC and the alt scene, so it’s worth being aware of what’s involved. As always, an open mind and a strong willingness to react to price action will serve us well as traders.
PEPPERSTONE:BTCUSDLong
by Pepperstone
Bitcoins newer all time highOn the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin appears to be within a distinct channel. This week, it experienced a decline, reaching the 65654 support level at the channel's bottom before rebounding. Currently, it has bounced off the 67562 support and is heading upwards. If it breaks above 69005, it could revisit all-time highs. Back on March 3rd, Bitcoin formed a flag pattern before reaching its previous all-time highs. Considering the length of the candlestick pole to the flag pattern, I anticipate Bitcoin may reach 75000 before a downturn, potentially returning to the support trend line around 54670.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by samstoobad
Bitcoin Analysis: Big and LongBitcoin has recently showcased its resilience, surging past the significant $31,000 mark. This breakthrough is not a mere coincidence; it's a part of a grander design in the crypto market. If your preview is distorted here is image copy of this analysis: Let's delve into the intricacies of this upward momentum: 1. Halving's Influence: One of essential factors in Bitcoin's trajectory is the phenomenon of halving. Bitcoin halving events have historically influenced supply and demand dynamics, often leading to significant price rallies. As we approach the halving period, this historic pattern adds an extra layer of confidence to the current bullish sentiment. 2. Impulse Structure and Rising Channel: Bitcoin is painting a compelling picture on the daily timeframe. Within a substantial impulse structure, a rising channel is emerging. This channel indicates a positive trajectory, reflective of market confidence. 3. Third Wave Speculation: Within this structure, the market is now poised for what appears to be the third wave, a potentially substantial wave marked by extensions. The current expectations are set on a retreat to $30,000, acting as a pivot point for the forthcoming surge, with the next ambitious target resting comfortably at $50,000. 4. Wyckoff Accumulation Pattern: Bitcoin's strength lies in its Wyckoff accumulation pattern. Though subtle, this continuous weakness exhibits a steady and robust progression, making it a quite unique pattern among other accumulation patterns (cup and handle, saucer etc). 5. Bollinger Bands Width Squeeze: A striking observation is the Bollinger Bands width, reaching a low not witnessed since the market bottom of 2014. This rarity accentuates Bitcoin's growth potential, serving as a strong indicator for investors. 6. Historical Comparisons: By comparing the current market behavior with the patterns observed in 2015-2016, a striking resemblance emerges. This historical congruence enhances our confidence in the ongoing trend, providing a solid foundation for the $50,000 target. 7. Institutional Interest: With each positive move, the market gains momentum. It's not just individual investors; institutional players are also recognizing Bitcoin's potential. The imminent approval of a Bitcoin ETF promises to be a game-changer. This financial instrument bridges the gap between traditional markets and cryptocurrencies, rendering Bitcoin accessible to a broader investor base. The ETF's advent not only signifies regulatory acknowledgment but also invites a wave of retail participation. The anticipation is that as we approach the holiday season, institutional investors will further solidify this upward trajectory. In essence, the recent surge beyond $31,000 signifies a strategic move in the crypto chessboard. As we navigate this rising channel, the road ahead holds promise, with the $50,000 mark gleaming on the horizon. Adding to this momentum, RSI (Relative Strength Index) is showing both Bullish and Hidden Bullish divergence alongside the development of the rising channel. These signals align, painting a robust picture for Bitcoin's price increase. Your support means the world to me! ❤️ Liking and commenting is a free, wonderful way to keep me motivated and help my work reach more enthusiasts like you. Plus, I'm genuinely curious: which tokens/coins have piqued your interest lately? Share your thoughts in the comment box below! Let's start a conversation! Stay tuned!
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by ArShevelev
25
Why the Bitcoin Halving Historically Increases PriceThe bitcoin halving, which occurs every four years, is encoded into Bitcoin itself. Its purpose is to cut in half the amount of Bitcoin that is rewarded for every block that is mined, meaning you must double the processing power every four years to mine the same amount of Bitcoin. (A block reward refers to the number of bitcoins you get if you successfully mine a block of the currency . Investopedia 2023 ) This means that it becomes twice as hard for bitcoin miners to mine the same amount of bitcoin they were mining four years earlier with the same hardware. This creates what is known as a drop in supply or supply shock, where market demand either stays the same or increases, and the price of bitcoin must increase to meet the demand. If the demand stays the same or increases, the price still has to increase because the supply of bitcoin being mined daily is half what it was in the previous four years. There are fewer coins to buy, so the market must compete by paying higher prices. Because this event is exponential, eventually hardware will not be able to keep up with the halving if miners want to be profitable. This may seem like an oversimplification of the most basic economic principles. However, that is what is fundamentally encoded into bitcoin, which guarantees an increase in price by cutting supply every four years (guaranteed only if demand stays the same or increases). That is why bitcoin halving is referred to as a market-moving event, because not only historically has it proven to increase prices and cut supply, but fundamentally it has too. Now let’s look at a real-life example for comparison. Gold does have real-world use in technology and jewelry. However, its main value and use are as a store of value. Most gold is bought and accumulated because it will retain its value, which is the same use case as bitcoin. What do you think would happen if the entire gold production market was slashed in half overnight and this process was repeated every four years? The price of gold would increase exponentially as the finite resource becomes more and more scarce because it is harder to mine. Now apply the same logic to bitcoin, and hopefully you will begin to see the picture. The next bitcoin has just under 60 days coming up in mid-April 2024, so mark your calendars.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by altsandislands
Bitcoin halving starts in 60 days. I like this price channelI’m not saying that Halving will begin on April 8th, this is an assumption based on my findings. My forecast is this: Bitcoin is now a colossal success for ETFs, and now "MicroStrategy" has like-minded people, it is enough to single out one figure for everything to fall into place, "BlackRock", which is accumulating 82000 Bitcoins today and announces on the "CNBC" channel that they will be accumulating Bitcoin for several more years. Based on these important facts, I have a positive forecast for a new high in the price of Bitcoin.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by GarateTradeCrypto
BTCUSDT Month ForecastExcuse me! Bitcoin still has a long way to go, but I believe that the next bull market will go beyond any previous one. Both due to the introduction of ETFs and the bitcoin halving. If you look at the prices daily, you can see that it is difficult for the exchange rate to move in a trend direction. But if we zoom in and examine the price by month, we can see a much clearer direction, which is now pointing upwards. We have the Fibonacci level and the anchored vwap to help us. It can be observed that the price has been going up since the beginning of the year and we have reached a level that will be crucial in the following months. We observe on this chart where, according to my analysis, the exchange rate will go and where it will be at the beginning of next year (March-April). You will also find a reference to Bitcoin dominance. It is important to always do your own research and not make hasty decisions! NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE R3NCSO
Long
by R3ncso
2
Bitcoin: One Person's Fear is Another Person's GreedFirst off, what the f*ck? I believe Bitcoin should correct back to at least the 50% Fib Level -- if not the 38.2% -- so that we can see a healthy rally upwards. Years of trading crypto has taught me that every rally has a near equal correction. But emotions and bias will be the death of your portfolio so here's my unbiased analysis of the world's greatest cryptocurrency: - Bitcoin is forming an ascending triangle on multiple charts which is a bullish sentiment on its own. - On-Balance Volume (OBV) shows a steady increase in buying pressure since the start of the recent rally. Layman's terms: buying pressure is outcompeting selling pressure. - Money Flow Index (MFI) has an inverse slope that favors oversold and is currently relaxing in neutral territory safely away from overbought. These three indicators lead me to believe that Bitcoin may experience another breakout in the coming weeks and, potentially, without a dip back to $30.5K as I previously forecasted. At risk of stating the obvious, news can shake the markets enough to reverse any trajectory but yesterday's Binance update hardly rattled Bitcoin like it did for altcoins. It's my personal opinion that the Bitcoin ETF decision is the closest catalyst in determining the next major rally or drop. However, we can't forget about the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving which is expected around April 2024. If the ETF does get rejected, this may provide a very lucrative buying opportunity. COINBASE:BTCUSD
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Shepherd_Investor
Understanding the Impact of Bitcoin Halving on PriceUnderstanding the Impact of Bitcoin Halving: A Comprehensive Guide Introduction Bitcoin, the world’s most renowned cryptocurrency, operates on a decentralized network utilizing blockchain technology. One critical event that has a profound impact on Bitcoin's supply and valuation is the process known as "Bitcoin Halving." This event occurs approximately every four years or, more precisely, every 210,000 blocks, reducing the reward that miners receive for adding new blocks to the blockchain by 50%. The Genesis of Bitcoin Halving Bitcoin halving was embedded into the protocol by its mysterious creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, to control inflation and ensure scarcity. The first block, known as the "genesis block," was mined in 2009, providing a reward of 50 bitcoins. Since then, there have been three halvings, reducing the block rewards to 25, 12.5, and 6.25 bitcoins respectively. The Mechanics of Bitcoin Halving When a bitcoin halving occurs, the reward that miners receive for validating and adding new transactions to the blockchain is cut in half. This effectively reduces the rate at which new bitcoins are created and subsequently, the overall supply of bitcoins increases at a decelerating pace. Impact on Miners Miners play a pivotal role in maintaining the integrity of the Bitcoin network by solving complex mathematical problems to validate transactions and secure the network. The reduced rewards post-halving can impact their profitability, especially those with higher operational costs, potentially leading to a decline in the number of active miners. Scarcity and Value The inherent scarcity due to halvings is a crucial factor driving Bitcoin’s value. As the reward diminishes and fewer bitcoins enter circulation, the scarcity typically leads to an increase in value, assuming demand remains constant or increases. Historical Perspective and Market Reaction Historically, Bitcoin halvings have been precursors to significant price rallies. For example, the 2012 halving saw Bitcoin’s value rise from approximately $12 to over $1,000 within a year. Similarly, the 2016 halving preceded the monumental rise to nearly $20,000 by the end of 2017. However, market reactions to halvings are not immediate and often exhibit a lag, primarily due to speculative trading, market sentiment, and macroeconomic factors. It's essential to note that past performance is not indicative of future results, and various factors can influence Bitcoin’s price. Long-term Implications Supply Limit and Deflationary Nature Bitcoin's protocol stipulates a maximum supply limit of 21 million coins, emphasizing its deflationary nature. Halvings ensure that the total supply of Bitcoin will not be mined until approximately the year 2140. This scarcity can make Bitcoin a potentially valuable asset, likened to "digital gold," and a hedge against inflation. Evolution of Mining Technology Over the years, the increase in mining difficulty and decrease in block rewards have driven technological advancements in mining hardware, promoting efficiency and sustainability. The future might witness further innovations in mining technology, enabling miners to continue operations despite reduced rewards. Institutional Adoption Bitcoin halving events and the subsequent impact on price and scarcity have contributed to increased awareness and adoption of Bitcoin as an asset class. Institutional investment and mainstream acceptance are likely to play a crucial role in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition and stability. Conclusion Bitcoin halving is a pivotal event in the cryptocurrency’s lifecycle, designed to control inflation and enforce scarcity. While historically associated with substantial price increases, numerous factors influence Bitcoin’s value in the wake of a halving. The long-term implications of halving events are multifaceted, affecting miners, investors, and the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. As Bitcoin continues to mature, its deflationary nature, technological advancements in mining, and growing institutional adoption may solidify its standing as a legitimate and valuable asset class. However, prospective investors should exercise due diligence, considering the inherent risks and volatility associated with investing in cryptocurrencies. Halving vs Price Impact Halving Date: Nov 28, 2012 Block Number: 210,000 Reward Before Halving (BTC): 50 Reward After Halving (BTC): 25 Price Before Halving (USD): ~$12 Peak Price After Halving (USD): ~$1,150 Time to Peak After Halving: ~1 year Halving Date: Jul 9, 2016 Block Number: 420,000 Reward Before Halving (BTC): 25 Reward After Halving (BTC): 12.5 Price Before Halving (USD): ~$650 Peak Price After Halving (USD): ~$20,000 Time to Peak After Halving: ~1.5 years Halving Date: May 11, 2020 Block Number: 630,000 Reward Before Halving (BTC): 12.5 Reward After Halving (BTC): 6.25 Price Before Halving (USD): ~$8,500 Peak Price After Halving (USD): ~$64,000 Time to Peak After Halving: ~1 year Notes: Price Before Halving (USD): This represents the approximate price of Bitcoin shortly before the halving event. Peak Price After Halving (USD): This represents the highest price Bitcoin reached after the halving, before experiencing significant correction. Time to Peak After Halving: This represents the approximate time it took for Bitcoin to reach its peak price after the halving. Yours!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by VectorAlgo
2022 Bitcoin Halving Post AnalysisHistory Never Repeats, But it Often Rhymes When analyzing the potential impact of the 2024 Bitcoin halving, it is wise to have an in-depth understanding of the price action of previous halving in 2020. This can help us to identify potential patterns and similarities that could play out in the current cycle. Pre-Halving Price Action In the lead-up to the 2022 halving, we saw a clear resistance/supply zone build up in the $12,000 range. This zone was tested multiple times, but price was unable to break through on a sustained basis. (Red Color Supply Zone) Several months prior to the halving, price action visited the 200 EMA/SMA range. This was the same as the strong accumulation zone of the bear market in 2018/2019. Key reason for this dump was COVID-19 pandemic. This drop provided the best pre-halving buying opportunity. (Purple Zone) Price Recovery Price recovered within weeks leading up to the halving on May 11, 2020. This recovery was fueled by a combination of factors, such as uncertain economic environment and halving anticipation. (Yellow Zone) Post-Halving Accumulation After the halving, we saw a period of accumulation as investors bought Bitcoin in anticipation of future price appreciation. This accumulation phase lasted for several months. Again this was the next best buying opportunity. Sametime there were many shake-off of inpatient investors. (Blue Zone) 2021 Parabolic Uptrend Towards the end of 2020 price-action was able to break out from the accumulation and resistance zone. 2021 resulted on the expected parabolic uptrend in the first half of the year. Then it was retrace. again a recovery during latter part of the year. This created a Double Top Candle stick formation. This concluded the bull market, and it did not give the expected blow-off candle like in 2017. Hope this post-analysis helped in order to build your plan for 2024 Halving and 2025 Expected Bull market Based on the historical evidence, it is possible that we will see a similar pattern play out in the lead-up to and after the 2022 halving. This could include: A period of accumulation as investors buy Bitcoin in anticipation of future price appreciation A breakout from the current resistance zone A sustained bull run as demand for Bitcoin continues to grow It is important to note that past performance is not indicative of future results. However, by understanding the historical price action of Bitcoin, we can better prepare for what may happen in the current cycle.
BNC:BLX
by cryptochi1986
1
Bitcoin Halving Understanding the Decentralized Supply MechanismIntroduction Bitcoin Halving, also known as the "Halvening," is a critical event that occurs approximately every four years in the Bitcoin network. It is an essential component of the cryptocurrency's monetary policy and plays a significant role in controlling its supply. Understanding the concept and implications of Bitcoin Halving is crucial for anyone interested in the world of cryptocurrencies. In this article, we will explore what Bitcoin Halving is, why it happens, and its impact on the Bitcoin ecosystem. 1. What is Bitcoin Halving? Bitcoin Halving refers to the programmed event in the Bitcoin protocol, which reduces the block reward for miners by half. In the early days of Bitcoin, miners were rewarded with 50 bitcoins for each block they successfully added to the blockchain. However, after the first Halving event in 2012, the reward was reduced to 25 bitcoins. The second Halving, in 2016, further reduced the reward to 12.5 bitcoins. The process continues, with each Halving cutting the reward in half. Bitcoin Halving Dates Map + My Fibonacci Retracement Strategy 2. Why Does Bitcoin Halving Happen? Bitcoin Halving is an essential part of the cryptocurrency's design and is programmed to occur every 210,000 blocks, which is roughly every four years. The primary purpose of Halving is to control the rate at which new bitcoins are minted and ultimately limit the total supply to 21 million coins. This scarcity mimics the scarcity of precious metals like gold and contributes to the store of value proposition of Bitcoin. 3. Impact on Bitcoin's Supply The fixed supply schedule of Bitcoin ensures that only 21 million bitcoins will ever be mined. As a deflationary currency, the issuance rate decreases over time due to Halving. This controlled and predictable supply model is in stark contrast to traditional fiat currencies that can be subject to inflationary pressures. 4. Mining and the Incentive Structure Mining is the process by which new bitcoins are minted and transactions are validated on the Bitcoin network. Miners dedicate computational power to solve complex mathematical puzzles, and the first one to find a valid solution gets to add a new block to the blockchain and receives the block reward as compensation. The Halving event reduces this reward, affecting the mining economics. 5. Price and Market Impact Bitcoin Halving events often attract considerable attention from the cryptocurrency community and can influence market sentiment. In the lead-up to Halving, there is often speculation about the potential impact on the price of Bitcoin. Some believe that reduced supply combined with steady or increased demand could lead to price appreciation, as seen in previous Halving cycles. However, the relationship between Halving events and price movements is complex and influenced by various factors. 6. Historical Halving Events Bitcoin has undergone two Halving events so far, in 2012 and 2016. The third Halving took place in May 2020. Each Halving has historically been followed by a period of increased interest and volatility in the cryptocurrency markets. The long-term impact of Halving events on the price and the network's dynamics continues to be a subject of study and speculation. 7. Dates First halving November 28, 2012 210,000 Blocks Second halving July 9, 2016 420,000 Blocks Third halving May 11, 2020 630,000 Blocks Fourth halving April 2024 (estimate)840,000 Blocks 8. Conclusion Bitcoin Halving is a crucial element of the cryptocurrency's design, ensuring a controlled and predictable issuance of new bitcoins and ultimately limiting the total supply to 21 million coins. By understanding the concept and implications of Bitcoin Halving, investors, traders, and enthusiasts can better grasp the dynamics that drive the cryptocurrency's value and the unique characteristics that set it apart from traditional financial systems. As Bitcoin's ecosystem continues to evolve, the impact of Halving events on the network and the broader cryptocurrency space will remain an area of interest and exploration. Trading Cryptocurrencies involves considerable risk. Always consider these risks before starting to trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sailortrades
The Real Alt Coin Season Starts Here!Bitcoin usually surpasses the future halving price in crypto Autumn. Shortly there after we usually start to see alt coins ripping higher at different points throughout the season, all the way up to even early crypto Winter. On this chart I have a few of those OG alt coins (XRP, DOGE & LTC) compared to Bitcoin. The green dashed vertical lines are the points where bitcoin surpassed the future halving price in the past 2 cycles. Now take a look at the parabolic rise of these alt coins after that event. Vertical! Obviously there are some pretty significant moves before then, but nothing compares to after bitcoin surpasses the future halving price! The next event is projected to be around late 2024 to early 2025. What are your thoughts?
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TheCryptoWeatherChannel