Bitcoinhalving
BTC - Why 500k is not insane. Bitcoin Halving Map + ProjectionsI decided to play with a visual representation of the halving history, and then project it. Just for fun.
Measuring from the rock bottoms before halvings, and up to the tops after, with percentage gains and elapsed times.
And then the corrections after tops, the loss percentages and time to rock bottom again... roughly 85% loss both cycles
The approximate halving points are the blue vertical lines. Peaks are green verticals.
Considering the peaks all are Novemberish... I projected the next one to be around that time in 2021.
My projection for percentage gain is somewhat arbitrary, and I've kept it close to the previous cycle, but with a little more oomph.
But I kept it much more conservative than the first cycle... even though I have no solid reasons for doing so.
It could gain less than the previous, but looking at the FIRST cycle gains, it could gain quite a bit more than 15,000%.
Of course, "past performance no guaranty of future" blah blah blah... but this is hella fun to play with regardless.
If the pattern stays anywhere near the previous cycles... it's gonna be EPIC!
Moon boys will literally shit themselves with joy and lambos will be back ordered for years.
Also thinking once it clears and holds over 20k again... the pile on is gonna be major. Thus the wee extra oomph in my % projection.
Whats really craze balls is another 85% drop after the projected peak brings it back down into the 85k range!
Moon boys will shit themselves in fear!
I of course have a map now, so I'm all prepared! Kinda. Maybe. Somewhat. Sorta.
Time will tell, eh? Love to know what you think.
Cheers!
Bitcoin Halving DemystifiedI was recently asked of my opinion on how I could possibly come up with a Papa Bear Projection Chart where the correction period takes over a year long - one that takes us well into next year, and into and over the next Bitcoin halving date of May 2020. I figured it would be easier to simply print a chart for reference.
A picture speaks a thousand words. Here's a history of Bitcoin halvings - all two of them.
A. The first and the only point pertinent to the question that was asked of me is point A - the second BTC halving which occurred in July 2016 where the price of Bitcoin dropped ~40% immediately BEFORE, DURING and AFTER it.
Need I say more? The rest of this post is for educational purposes.
B. Here, the price dropped by 75% six months after the first halving (that should have said first on the chart).
C. A drop in price of approximately 80% in its early days (11.85 to 2.22) and one year before the first halving.
D. A correction period of over 1.5 years where the price dropped by about 90% between the two halvings (1163 to 152).
E. The price rose by 100% one year after the second halving. As an analogy, in today's terms, it would rise from 3000 to 6000 or 8000 to 16000 one year after the next halving (I'm not saying this is what will happen).
F. A correction period of over a year where the price dropped by ~85% (~20000 to ~3000).
Bitcoin has had more elongated correction periods and FAR MORE drops in price than it has had halvings. A third correction period of over a year or another drop in price is neither an abnormality nor a deviation from the "norm".
I guess the only reason I can think of as to why people think my projection seems so absolutely absurd is because they be dreamin' of owning Maseratis and Mansions and they be wantin' it now.
Do I think halvings have anything to do with the price of Bitcoin (all one of the two halvings which had no significant correlation, where the price did not increase immediately after the halving and only increased months later in line with the trend it was in prior to the halving)? None whatsoever.
Do I expect the price of Bitcoin to increase in the future? Yes, but only after it corrects.
What is clear from this chart is that BTC, just like any other stock or crypto, goes through cycles.
I can't predict when the corrections will end but I can forecast where it will likely finish based on its cycle and technical analysis, and that is what I am most concerned with at Purple Crypto Premium.
Adios amigos.
What goes up must come down.
My Secret Papa Bear Chart
It Played Out Like a Beautiful Melody
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Are We There Yet?
What If It Goes Down? Future Projection
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Bitcoin bottomed or pospoted between Jan-May halvingWe're either at the bottom already or we're completing the Wave Z correction. I measured using Fibonacci Ratios as well as the subwaves. It's confluent with the January timeline. Remember BTC pumped January of 2019 and likely to pump again on January 2020 which is inline with the January effect on securities (investors/traders withdraw for the holidays on December then deposit and invest back at January where business is back and holidays are over -January effect). For the timeline now I see it pumping anytime within the 1st quarter of 2020 or early 2nd quarter which is also the May halving.
Bitcoin where is goingNow we have strong support, if 6800 Breakdown we will go to around 5600.
That is mean , if you want to buy BTC buy now with small stoploss (when the price drop down we will buy from ca. 5600) or you can buy after breakout 9400 with daily Candel.
The zone between 4000-5000 is very important for Bitcoin, if Bitcoin go under this zone we will go to visit new Bottom (I will update if that happen).
I will update here all the Targets for Bitcoin :)
April 2020 : we will have a big movment on Btc
18.05.2020: Bitcoin Halving
January 2021 : Big movment on Btc
BITCOIN, The last two supportsBITCOIN, It may still fall on the last two supports
Today all the main media available to bitcoins have been violated and we are in the area of potential purchase by buyers. I believe that in any case, given the large shaded volumes and the sudden collapses, we have slowed down the spirits. The current correction seems to depend on small purchases, whales must always come in and there are only two remaining supports. Historians. The trend would be in line with the end of the life cycle close to the next halving scheduled for early May. From there, the value for cyclical logics should return to growth.
We'll see.
Main support 1: 5727 USD
Secondary support 2: 4111 USD
BTC Halving analysis: Bitcoin to $90,000-$120,000 in late 2021! Bitcoin is hard money i.e. it is deflationary. Bitcoin is digital gold, indeed.
The Bitcoin halving ensures increase price as the demand remains constant (or increases) with the supply rate decreasing.
Details in the chart! The yellow vertical lines are the Bitcoin Halving dates.
Even if you are bullish on other digital assets (such as myself on $XRP), and even if you think Proof of Work is bad (and it is compared to PoS & Consensus), you would be smart to invest a small part of your portfolio in BTC as it is destined to have crazy price appreciation due to its nature.
Enjoy!
- Leb Crypto