Altseason will official start this coming Monday. Are you ready?So here we are 2 and a half years later. Business as usual. What an amazing journey it's been.
You know the drill, bloody day Starting Sunday in a few hours, Monday starts with a big explosion, then, sell in May and go away. Although watch out for Time Magazine's and Roaring Kitty's hints, January 9th til April 20th bullrun.
The blow off top of a century before a great depression.
Will Bitcoin stop at 60k? or will the model break and have Bitcoin reach 10 to 20k?
Comments, feedback and input is highly welcome and appreciated.
Enjoy the banana party.
Bitcoinidea
Bitcoin's Balancing Act: Navigating Selling Pressure and BullishBitcoin, the world's leading cryptocurrency, currently finds itself at a critical juncture, navigating a complex interplay of selling pressure from long-term holders and several bullish indicators suggesting a potential resurgence. This article delves into the key factors influencing Bitcoin's price, including long-term holder behavior, exchange inflows and miner outflows, hashrate dynamics, and the influence of Bitcoin whales, to assess its potential to reclaim the coveted $100,000 mark.
Critical Support and Long-Term Holder Selling Pressure
Bitcoin is currently facing critical support levels, meaning that its price is approaching a point where a significant drop could trigger further selling and potentially lead to a more substantial correction. One of the primary factors contributing to this pressure is the selling activity of long-term Bitcoin holders. These holders, who have typically held their Bitcoin for extended periods, are beginning to distribute their holdings, adding to the selling pressure in the market. This behavior can be attributed to various factors, including profit-taking after previous price surges, concerns about macroeconomic conditions, or a shift in investment strategies. Monitoring the behavior of long-term holders is crucial for understanding the overall market sentiment and potential future price movements.
Exchange Inflow and Miner Outflow Dynamics
Analyzing Bitcoin exchange inflows and miner outflows provides valuable insights into market dynamics. A drop in exchange inflows suggests reduced selling pressure, as fewer Bitcoins are being deposited onto exchanges for trading.1 Conversely, a decrease in miner outflows indicates that miners are holding onto their Bitcoin rather than selling it immediately, further reducing selling pressure. The recent drop in both exchange inflows and miner outflows is a positive sign, suggesting that selling pressure is easing and potentially paving the way for a price recovery. The expectation is that this reduced selling pressure, combined with other bullish factors, could contribute to Bitcoin reclaiming the $100,000 level.
Bitcoin Hashrate Reaching New All-Time Highs
The Bitcoin hashrate, a measure of the computational power used to mine Bitcoin, has recently reached new all-time highs.2 This is a significant indicator of the network's strength and security. A higher hashrate makes the Bitcoin network more resistant to attacks and demonstrates the continued commitment of miners to the ecosystem. While a high hashrate doesn't directly translate to immediate price increases, it reflects the long-term health and stability of the Bitcoin network, which can indirectly contribute to positive market sentiment and attract new investors. This robust network infrastructure provides a strong foundation for future price appreciation and supports the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $100,000.
The Influence of Bitcoin Whales
Bitcoin whales, entities holding substantial amounts of Bitcoin, exert significant influence on market dynamics.3 Recent data suggests that Bitcoin whales control a significant portion of exchange volume, highlighting their ability to impact price movements. Analyzing their selling patterns is crucial for understanding potential market shifts. If whales begin accumulating Bitcoin, it could signal a bullish trend, while continued selling could exacerbate downward pressure. Understanding whale behavior is essential for navigating the complexities of the Bitcoin market and anticipating potential price swings. The observation that whales control 94.5% of exchange volume underscores their influence and the importance of monitoring their activity for future market predictions.
Can Bitcoin Reclaim $100,000?
The question on everyone's mind is whether Bitcoin can reclaim the $100,000 mark. While the selling pressure from long-term holders presents a challenge, several bullish factors offer hope for a price recovery. The drop in exchange inflows and miner outflows suggests reduced selling pressure, while the record-high hashrate demonstrates the strength and security of the Bitcoin network. The behavior of Bitcoin whales will also play a crucial role in determining future price movements.
Reaching $100,000 will require a combination of factors, including a decrease in selling pressure, renewed buying interest from both retail and institutional investors, and positive developments in the broader cryptocurrency market. If these conditions are met, Bitcoin has the potential to overcome current challenges and reach new heights.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is currently navigating a delicate balance between selling pressure and bullish indicators. While long-term holder selling and critical support levels present challenges, the drop in exchange inflows and miner outflows, coupled with the record-high hashrate, offer positive signals. The influence of Bitcoin whales adds another layer of complexity to the market dynamics.
Whether Bitcoin can reclaim $100,000 remains to be seen, but the interplay of these factors will ultimately determine its future price trajectory. Careful monitoring of these key indicators is essential for understanding the evolving landscape of the Bitcoin market and making informed investment decisions.
Bitcoin: time to short!Over the past several days, we’ve seen a rise of more than 6%, which has coincided with a rally in the stock market. Bitcoin is now trading above all moving averages and near the upper Bollinger Bands line — not the most promising signal for further upside. Additionally, we observe that volumes are calming down after the recent spike.
As we move into the start of the year, there may still be significant challenges ahead that have yet to materialize.
Moreover, there is a resistance zone, along with a key Fibonacci level, in the 98-100k range, making it difficult to break above this level.
This suggests that a short-term short position might be a good option. However, it remains fundamentally risky, as the prevailing sentiment still favors buying and holding.
Your sincerely,
Mister iM
Possibly the best system I have ever come up with for BitcoinThis is for my wealth accumulation and it is not in any way financial advice. If you follow this and lose your shirt that's on you!
There is a cycle embedded into the Bitcoin space. We all know it and we all witness it.
The halving cycle is real and it is a feature not a bug.
For my sanity, I am sick of seeing people I know buying the FOMO tops and then selling on the way down to the bottom or holding through massive periods of drawdown. So I am not going to do that.
The system is simple.
Setup, wait for the next most likely top in the market before the next most likely drawdown period.
QT4 2013
QT4 2017
QT4 2021
QT4 2025 <-- Next possible top in the market
From October 2025 monitor the daily price action looking for a close below the 50-period SMA
When triggered Sell Everything.
QT1 2015
QT1 2019
QT1 2023
QT1 2027 <-- Next possible bottom in the market
From January 2027 monitor the daily price action looking for a close above the 50-period SMA
When triggered Buy Everything back.
Long Story short for BTCHistory hasn't failed yet, so the four-year cycle is still intact until it isn't. I have stretched this chart out for the next couple of years so that you can get a good idea of where the potential bottom will be during the next bear market. I plan to accumulate as much as possible the closer it gets to 66k. If we do reach a 150-250k top this cycle then I will expect a bear market bottom between 66-76k. Watch my levels and use them as a guideline. Historically Bitcoin has NEVER returned to the price its low during the US election week:
2012 Election Week Low - $10
2016 Election Week Low - $700
2020 Election Week Low - $13,200
2024 Election Week Low - $66,800
that brings us to now... if this doesn't indicate the current market sentiment then I don't know what will. There's a reason why many genius economists are speculating a 1 million dollar bitcoin in the next 8 years.
Bitcoin - almost ready to go up but not yetWhen I analyse Bitcoin, I really focus on MACD. I don't trade Bitcoin. I use technical analysis to find a good entry point to buy Bitcoin.
I use the following conditions to find a good entry point to buy Bitcoin:
1) MACD lines are properly crossed and the angles of MACD lines are pointing up in a daily chart. Almost crossed is not good enough. The lines need to properly crossed ideally above 0 line.
2) Only if the first condition is met, I look at RSI and Stochastic (9,3,3) in the same chart. Two lines in RSI need to be properly crossed and the lines are about to or crossed above 50 level, and Stochastic (9,3,3) is not in overbought territory.
3) Go to the weekly chart and look at Stochastic (9,3,3). If weekly stochastic lines are crossed and moving upward from below 50 level.
BTC retested both previous monthly and weekly low and the price seems to be moving up. However, it still needs to cross above the previous higher high at around 100k zone which is also the previous weekly and monthly mid price area. The current set up is very similar to the set ups on the 21st April 24 and 01 July 24 where I drew blue vertical lines in the chart. At these times, BTC looked like it was finally about to go up but ended up having another dip. If you look at MACD in those two points (marked in blue square), you can see daily MACD lines looked like they were about to cross but didn't and the stochastic in the weekly chart was still pointing downwards. There is a chance the scenario is playing out right now. I think Bitcoin will eventually start to move up, but before that next leg up, it might have another dip (minor bear trap).
BTCUSD H4 Outlook If this current H4 candle closes below my poi which is 97552.82 I'll be looking to sell Bitcoin down to the indicated liquidity zone 92743.63
If price close above it. I'll wait for the next three H4 candles to know if I'd still be willing to see Bitcoin fall to 92743.63.
What's your outlook on BTC. Drop your comments I'll be glad to read your point of view.
Short Bitcoin (BTC) (For Study Purpose Only)Short Recommendation
Entry Level: Below $94,000
Stop Loss (SL): $111,111
This surge has been largely attributed to President-elect Donald Trump's pro-cryptocurrency stance, including promises of deregulation and the establishment of a national strategic Bitcoin reserve.
However, concerns are emerging regarding Bitcoin's current valuation. Analysts warn that the market may be overheating, with some predicting a potential correction of up to 35%.
COINTELEGRAPH
Additionally, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has stated that the U.S. central bank cannot hold Bitcoin, which has introduced uncertainty into the market.
This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Cryptocurrency trading involves significant risk, including the potential loss of capital. Ensure to evaluate your risk tolerance and conduct thorough research.
Daily Market Review and Analysis for BTC: January 2, 2025#BTC (1h)
The cryptocurrency market capitalization rose by 2.74% over the last 24 hours, BTC dominance fell by 0.6%.
#Bitcoin continues its local uptrend, which is especially clearly visible on lower timeframes (up to 15 minutes). In particular, the price of the first cryptocurrency continues to periodically rebound from trend liquidity, which indicates that the liquidity pool will soon reach the level of $97,544 and then roll back to the area of $96,200.
This scenario will be relevant if the price consolidates with the body of the hourly candle below $95,924. But as mentioned above, now the most realistic scenario is to take the liquidity price at $97,544.
As for the global scenario, BTC is in a bullish cycle and the primary target in the medium term is the buyers' liquidity level (BSL) at $99,963, where the price is likely to fall for the sellers' liquidity (SSL) withdrawals at $90,500 and $88,722.
BTCUSDT LongBased on the previous analysis, we anticipated that the price might be bearish based on the retracement it made on the 50% mark.
Well, it retraced but did not manage to go through the Order Block at 92150, which might be a signature that the price might be drawn to the DOL at 100,000
Entry at 95600, tp 1 at 97570 and Tp 2 at 100,700 and SL 93750.
BITCOIN BEARISH FLAG BREAKOUT Bitcoin on H1 timeframe shows a strong potential signal sell due to formation of bearish flag breakout,This potentially attracts more sellers in the next trading days
Entry:94000.3
Target 1: 90784.1
Target 2: 86564.6
Target 3: 79813.2
Please like and comment on this idea to enable us share more quality analysis with you
Thanks, Wireforex
Bitcoin SellThis coin has been bearish for the past few days, before retracting 50% of the current range.
Currently, it is on the 50% mark, filled the IFVG before strongly rejecting it and acted as a bearish order block.
I do anticipate that the price might be drawn to the sell side liquidity at 91000.
Entry at 95500, Sl at 96700 and target at 91000
Technical Analysis: Bitcoin (BTC) – Regular Bearish DivergenceTechnical Analysis: Bitcoin (BTC) – Regular Bearish Divergence
Hello!
T he recent technical analysis for Bitcoin (BTC) highlights the presence of a regular bearish divergence between the price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator. This divergence, marked by the yellow lines on the chart, signals a potential reversal in the short-term trend and suggests a bearish outlook for the coming days or weeks.
Understanding the Divergence
A regular bearish divergence occurs when the price of an asset forms higher highs, while the RSI forms lower highs. This indicates weakening momentum, even as the price reaches new peaks. The yellow lines on the TradingView chart clearly illustrate this pattern for Bitcoin.
Price Action: Bitcoin has recorded higher highs on the price chart.
RSI Behavior: The RSI indicator, however, has failed to mirror this pattern, instead forming lower highs. This discrepancy points to diminishing bullish momentum and the likelihood of an upcoming price correction.
Short-Term Bearish Implications
Given the regular bearish divergence, Bitcoin’s price is expected to experience a pullback in the short term. Traders should be cautious, as this divergence often precedes a period of downward movement. Key support levels, such as $93,000 and $92,000, should be monitored closely to assess the depth of the correction.
Long-Term Bullish Outlook
While the short-term trend leans bearish, the long-term perspective for Bitcoin remains bullish. Several macroeconomic factors, including increasing institutional adoption, favorable regulatory developments, and a growing use case for cryptocurrencies, continue to support the long-term upward trajectory of BTC. This macroeconomic backdrop suggests that any short-term price corrections could present buying opportunities for long-term investors.
Key Takeaways
The yellow lines on the TradingView chart highlight a regular bearish divergence between Bitcoin’s price and the RSI indicator.
This divergence signals a likely short-term bearish trend, with a potential price correction on the horizon.
Long-term trends remain bullish, supported by macroeconomic factors and Bitcoin’s robust fundamentals.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Regards,
Ely
HEAD AND SHOULDERS: NOT JUST A SHAMPOO Alright, traders, buckle up. 🚀 What you’re looking at isn’t just a chart—it’s a warning shot. 💥
📉 Head and Shoulders? Classic textbook stuff. But don’t get comfortable. That neckline at 68,285 isn’t just a pretty yellow line—it’s the price’s last line of defense before it nosedives into the abyss. 🕳️
Let’s connect the dots:
Momentum? Fading faster than New Year’s resolutions. 🗓️ (👀 at that RSI—she’s screaming bearish.)
Buyers? They’re running out of steam, and it’s not looking pretty for the bulls. 🐂💨
But here’s the kicker: 🎯 When (not if) that line breaks, the price could freefall faster than your hopes in a Monday morning meeting. 💸📉
So, what’s your play? 🤔
Sit there, fingers crossed 🤞, hoping the neckline holds? Or take action, position yourself, and ride the wave down like the shark 🦈 you are?
Your choice. But remember—trading isn’t about hoping; it’s about acting. 💪
Let’s see who’s ready to capitalize and who’s stuck waiting on miracles. 👀
💬 Feel free to screenshot this when the price hits new lows and say you were here first.
Bitcoin appears to be stalling at the Fibonacci level.The anticipated Santa rally did not materialize, highlighting weakness in the community. The much-discussed $100k level now seems unattainable as we close out 2024. However, the focus has shifted to maintaining BTC at GETTEX:92K —a level that appear particularly strong.
This GETTEX:92K level has acted as resistance four times in the past and is now serving as support for the fourth time. Interestingly, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level aligns with this zone, adding to its significance.
The Bollinger Bands indicate an extreme situation, with prices moving beyond the range of the past 20 candles.
In just two weeks, BTC is down almost 14% from its all-time high (ATH).
In my view, this situation is far from resolved, and 2025 may begin with even weaker dynamics. Why? Financial market fundamentals are deteriorating, the festive period is over, and the next two months are historically the most challenging and inactive.
Tide Turning For Bitcoin? Reserves And Netflows Show ReversalBitcoin, the world's first and most well-known cryptocurrency, has experienced a rollercoaster ride since its inception. From its meteoric rise to its dramatic crashes, Bitcoin has remained a topic of fascination and debate for investors and financial analysts alike. In recent times, several factors have contributed to a sense of uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin's future, including regulatory scrutiny, market volatility, and concerns about its environmental impact. However, recent developments, such as increasing institutional adoption and positive netflows, suggest that the tide may be turning for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Institutional Adoption Accelerates as ETFs Show Investor Appetite
One of the most significant indicators of Bitcoin's growing acceptance is the increasing interest from institutional investors. Traditionally, institutional investors have been hesitant to invest in Bitcoin due to its volatile nature and lack of regulatory clarity. However, as the cryptocurrency market matures and regulatory frameworks become clearer, more and more institutions are beginning to see the potential of Bitcoin as an investment asset.
This growing institutional interest is reflected in the recent surge in for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). ETFs are investment funds that track an underlying asset, such as a stock index or a commodity. They offer investors a convenient way to gain exposure to an asset without having to directly own it.
Recent Reserves and Netflows Indicate Market Reversal
In addition to increasing institutional adoption, recent data on Bitcoin reserves and netflows also suggest that the market may be reversing. Bitcoin reserves refer to the amount of Bitcoin held on cryptocurrency exchanges. A decrease in Bitcoin reserves indicates that investors are withdrawing their Bitcoin from exchanges, which is often a sign of accumulation and a bullish signal.
Netflows, on the other hand, refer to the difference between the amount of Bitcoin entering and leaving exchanges. Positive netflows indicate that more Bitcoin is entering exchanges than leaving, which can be a sign of selling pressure and a bearish signal.
Recent data shows that Bitcoin reserves have been declining, while netflows have turned positive. This combination of factors suggests that investors are accumulating Bitcoin and that selling pressure is decreasing. These are both positive signs for the Bitcoin market and could indicate that a reversal is underway.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Navigating Volatility and Key Levels
Despite these positive developments, Bitcoin's price remains volatile and subject to market fluctuations
It has been noted a potential 'head and shoulders' pattern, a bearish technical indicator, which could lead to a significant price drop. This pattern suggests that Bitcoin's price could fall to as low as $80,000.
However, there maintain a more bullish outlook, emphasizing the importance of the $90,000 level. It is argued that if Bitcoin can maintain this level, it could pave the way for further price appreciation. Conversely, if Bitcoin fails to hold this level, it could trigger a sell-off and push the price down to $80,000.
Conclusion: A Cautious but Optimistic Outlook for Bitcoin
In conclusion, several recent developments suggest that the tide may be turning for Bitcoin. Increasing institutional adoption, as evidenced by the surge in Bitcoin ETF filings, indicates a growing acceptance of Bitcoin as an investment asset. Positive netflows and declining reserves further support this notion, suggesting that investors are accumulating Bitcoin and that selling pressure is decreasing.
However, it is important to remain cautious. Bitcoin's price remains volatile, and various factors could impact its future performance.13 The cryptocurrency market is still relatively young and subject to regulatory changes, technological advancements, and shifts in investor sentiment.
Therefore, while the recent developments are encouraging, it is crucial to approach Bitcoin with a balanced perspective. Investors should conduct thorough research, understand the risks involved, and make informed decisions based on their individual circumstances and risk tolerance.
Overall, the outlook for Bitcoin appears cautiously optimistic. The increasing institutional adoption, positive netflows, and declining reserves suggest that the market may be reversing. However, it is important to remain vigilant and adapt to the ever-changing dynamics of the cryptocurrency market.
BTCUSDT Analysis: Be Patient for a Better Long EntryIf you're considering a long position on Bitcoin, ensure you do so from a significant level . As highlighted in all my analyses, the market is currently riskier than it appears . Nevertheless, if you're determined to go long, it’s worth waiting for the blue box to be tested.
Key Points:
Current Risk: The market is riskier than it may seem, so caution is essential.
Blue Box Zone: A key level for potential long entries, providing better risk-reward opportunities.
Confirmation Indicators: Use CDV, liquidity heatmaps, volume profiles, volume footprints, and upward market structure breaks in lower time frames for validation.
Learn With Me: If you want to learn how to effectively use CDV, liquidity heatmaps, volume profiles, and volume footprints to identify high-value demand zones, feel free to DM me.
Reminder: Always manage your risk and wait for confirmation before entering a trade.
If this analysis helps you, please don’t forget to boost and comment. Your support motivates me to share more insights!
If you think this analysis helps you, please don't forget to boost and comment on this. These motivate me to share more insights with you!
I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions.
My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all, but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups.
If you would like to learn how to use the heatmap, cumulative volume delta and volume footprint techniques that I use below to determine very accurate demand regions, you can send me a private message. I help anyone who wants it completely free of charge.
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I stopped adding to the list because it's kinda tiring to add 5-10 charts in every move but you can check my profile and see that it goes on..