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#Bitcoin - thoughts out loud #13Good evening, we are from Ukraine! Dear colleagues, I am glad to welcome you! I like the situation with this instrument because it is schematically similar to the distribution phase, but there is one thing: the distribution is false and a significant markup of up to 35,000 is likely to be expected in the near future. I may be wrong, but this is my subjective vision, my thoughts out loud. It's also worth keeping a short-case scenario in mind. Good luck to everyone, all the best. Thank you all for your attention, I wish you success. Sometimes you win/sometimes you learn. #Bitcoin
Long
by WVitalievich
A new lost decade of stagflation is comingYou better get used to working hard, because the days of easy magic fairy dust money are long gone after 40 years of mania. The following scenario is going to make wallstreet very angry and I'm sure a lot of retail investors are going to be forced to give up and start working longer hours to adapt to an expensive already inflated life that just won't lower prices anymore, while at the same time, record high interest rates have already made it much harder for everyone to access bank loans and 0% credit cards. From Japanese herbivore men to Western Men Going Their Own Way, Japan during the 80s and 90s is the textbook play for the world to follow. What is usually known as "depevelopment" is actually a 4th stage of population growth/flattening that will surely lead to a global ageing population or demographic and pension crisis in the coming years and decades. So technically, there won't be any great depression like 1929, and there won't be any hyperinflation either (except for a few failed states in Latinamerica of course), A recession is not as boring and as predictable, as an eternally long stagflation, which is the most hated but necessary scenario to push foward out of so much debt.
TVC:GOLD
by axelrodd
1
Short Bitcoin on Weekly ChartI still cling to the analysis carried out 15 days ago, we are $1k below the price at that time, nothing has changed in terms of Elliot waves, the fractals remain unchanged and the probability drops to levels of 38% to 50% Fibonacci forecast is still in effect. Here I cannot add the candle in monthly terms, but if you can search for it, you will see that it is negative and has diminished the gains from the previous month's rise. On a weekly basis, it gives us better detail of what it wants to do, since on a daily basis it has remained in a large lateral range. If we look at the stochastic indicator, we see that the area above 80% has been touched 3 consecutive times, which means an overbought , thus generating a bearish divergence together with the value of the price, follow the projection but always operate cautiously because any fundamental can drastically alter the price.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by richycalde
BTC/USD and its crucial support and resistance areaLooking at this Daily BTC/USD Bitstamp chart from around Oct 2020 to 29th July 2023 (today) we can see a few obvious chart patterns that BTC is still in on this daily chart. 1) Ichimoku Y-Wave Pattern AKA a Broadening Wedge Pattern/Megaphone Pattern 2) Ascending Channel Pattern 3) Descending Channel Pattern 4) Rising Wedge Pattern We can clearly see the crucial range that BTC must break ABOVE and turn into strong support, which is around $28,709 to $32,360 as highlighted by the channel with horizontal dotted lines with yellow shading. This area has been both strong support and resistance quite a few times over the years. As a Strong Support range: Sat 2nd Jan 2021 to Mon 1st Feb 2021 Wed 19th May 2021 to Fri 23rd Jul 2021 As a Strong Resistance range: Mon 9th May 2022 to Sun 12th Jun 2022 Monday 20th Mar 2023 to Monday 8th May 2023 Mon 29th May 2023 (1day) Wednesday 21st Jun 2023 to 29th Just 2023 (as of typing this) Using @LuxAlgo Buyside & Sellside Liquidity indicator, we can see that BTC is slowly filling up its Liquidity Void from around $29,611 to its bottom at $27,051. As we can see from the history of the chart, quite a few of Liquidity Voids do end up getting filled back up even after a long period of year and a half. We can also see that a Buyside Liquidity line is located almost exactly on the top of our important support/resistance area. Using the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP) in its Delta mode, we can see what the Traded Volume difference was on each of the Volume Profile Bars for this entire charts visible range. Note that the Volume Area Up is Blue and Volume Area Down is Yellow. Here is a closer look at this 1 day chart. Note that BTC is still below its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis, the Lower Band is still pointing downwards and the Upper Band looks like it may curve downwards. I have added a Fixed Range Volume Profile (FRVP) indicator from Thur 15th Jun 2023 to Sat 29th July 2023 (as of typing this). The FRVP is also in its Delta mode and you can clearly see the Traded Volume differences for each Bar. Note that again the Volume Area Up is Blue and Volume Area Down is Yellow. Looking at the Chaikin Money Flow Indicator (CMF) we can see that the CMF Line is still in the Distribution Zone under its 0.00 Base Line and note that it is still Below its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) indicator. Note that the LSMA has curved upwards at the moment. Looking at the Relative Strength Index (RSI) we can see that momentum has dropped and the RSI Line is still below its 9 Period EMA line. Using the Bollinger Bands on the RSI we can see that the RSI now has little bit of room to move downwards and a lot of room to move upwards before becoming over extended/overbought/oversold. It really is good practice to be on the lookout for any Convergence and Divergence with the RSI and the Price. The key takeaway from this post, the Resistance Area from around $28,709 to $32,360 is very, very important! Note we also have a Buyside Liquidity Line located almost directly on $32,360. For the Upside: A successful Daily Candle CLOSE above the $32,360 level and any successful re-test as strong support will be a good sign of continued positive momentum to come. For the Downside: Failure to CLOSE a Daily Candle above the $32,360 level will be a good sign of continued sideways to eventual negative momentum. Anyway, i hope this post is helpful.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingThroughTheLens
Wyckoff Distribution Pattern in BitcoinMy friends In my previous Bitcoin post, I suggested that Bitcoin is in a Wyckoff distribution pattern. IMO, Wyckoff accumulation and distribution patterns are common in Bitcoin’s PA. I want to highlight similar distribution schematics I noticed in the last bear market. I also provided a glossary of the terms used by Wyckoff traders. I used two books as sources (citations at the bottom), but the words and phrasing are mine. I posted this TV idea as educational content. Nevertheless, I do not presume to “educate” you. Consider this as a suggestion by a fellow trader looking for your thoughts and feedback. So, what do you think? Are we on to something here? Yes, or no? Bitcoin Distribution Pattern June14th– July 24th, 2023: Bitcoin Redistribution June 18th – August 19th, 2022 Bitcoin Redistribution Pattern January19th – May 3rd, 2022: Bitcoin Distribution October 6th – December 1st, 2021: Glossary: Automatic Reaction (AR): With the buying pressure exhausted, the price moves down sharply. This is called an Automatic Reaction. The low of this sell-off is the range low. Buying Climax (BC): The point at which buying pressure reaches a climax. By this stage, institutional players (whales) and informed traders sold their allotted stocks to uninformed traders. From this point on, institutional traders begin to suppress the asset's price, preventing it from surpassing a set threshold. Last point of Supply (LPSY): After breaking below resistance, the Price tries to rally above the former support, now flipped to resistance. Volume may be light or heavy, showing weak demand or substantial supply. At LPSYs, the last waves of distribution are being unloaded before markdown is to begin. LPSYs are good places to initiate a short position or to add to already existing short positions. Preliminary Supply (PSY): The term describes a stage in an uptrend in which selling pressure creates noticeable resistance after a move up. Secondary Test (ST): The price moves to the vicinity of the range high to test the supply and demand balance at this price level. If this is really the range-high, supply will outweigh demand, and volume and spread should be diminished as the price moves closer to the resistance area of the range high. Sign of weakness (SoW): A Sign of Weakness is evidence that Supply is stronger than demand. A breakdown below a support level within the range (such as the mid-range) provides evidence that the MM favors lower prices. A failure to get back above support provides additional confluence to the bearish bias. Upthrust (UT): An upthrust is a false breakout also called a “bull trap.” The MM initiates a break above the range high to trap breakout traders to go long. The upthrust also shakes out weak hands that already took a short position. The liquidity provided by the breakout traders and from triggering the sell stops of the weak-handed traders gives the MM the liquidity he requires to fill his short positions to trigger the downtrend. Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD): This is the final shakeout. The basics of the UTAD are the same as the regular UT. Sometimes the UTAD reaches a higher price point than the previous UT actions. Bibliography Chaves, R. V. (2022). The Wyckoff Methodology in Depth. Pruden, H. (2007). The Three Skills of Top Trading. New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons.
Education
by NewThoughtCrypto
Bitcoin Will Rise Bullish SidewaysDaily TF and Bigger Picture Bullish 30 Min. is currently bearish,Bitcoin needs to fill the previouse Gaps southern area.I have marked them for you. The gaps have to be filled first, because BTC rose too fast and it needs to pick up the buy orders that areas.. Otherwise, the Bull trend will be slowed down. I am long, and stay long. The VP is trending Bullish, The POC lies above 26980.This is a strong sigal and Indicatr that the market should and will retur back to those areas. In northern areas we have very high volumes. Above 26000 we will experience higher buy pressures. I have market key level prices for you. Geerally this correction is necessary and healthy for BTC as it offers many buying oppurtunieties at support areas and turning key levels. Below 19000 The bearish trend will be started.
CAPITALCOM:BTCUSDLong
by DaveBrascoFX
Bitcoin history and future1W time frame - Every vertical dotted lines stand for halving timing, we call them "a cycle" between two lines. Every cycles have similar trend, we can mark them with three colors as below. (1) White range stand for Bull high to Bear second low (2) Red range stand for Bull high to Bear low (3) Green range stand for Bear low to Next halving According to halving in 2012 and 2016, we can expect Bitcoin make a second low (below 20000) in near future, the most possible time range is from August '23 to February '24. Before the second low coming, Bitcoin will likely reach price over 33000, therefore, be careful of being fomo and get ready with patience to buy spot.
BNC:BLX
by EthanTW