BTC - Might never see $7400 againThese are my thoughts:
BTC has formed a massive falling wedge pattern and is roughly around 200 Days long.
We can expect a break out of the pattern within 135 days, but this doesn't mean it won't break before then... Meaning possibly sooner than everyone expects.
Everyone was bearish. Let's be honest here, everyone was saying "bitcoin is doomed, this has been a fake bull run and we are in a bear market". This shows that when the masses think the same way, you should be considering the opposite...
- The daily 'death cross' has been postponed, and it has not been confirmed for the EMAs 50 and 200. This shows the strength of the bulls wanting to step in just before there was a confirmation of a prolonged downtrend.
- Bitcoin has bounced off the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $7300. This shows that the massive move to 14k has had a very healthy and deep retracement, confirming this is one huge consolidation.
A Fib from 14k to the low at 7400 shows that there are two key target areas if this pattern breaks:
0.5 = $10600 and the 0.618 = $11400.
There is also a measured move that targets a higher price, roughly around $12000 which is a nice round number, bitcoin often is supported and resisted at whole numbers like 10k, 11k, 14k etc...
- This is a key point I would like to make, and that is the Monthly has come all the way down to touch the 10SMA after it has recently had a bullish cross with the 21EMA. In a previous analysis, I showed that BTC has previously been pulled into a cross like this on the Monthly, before an explosion in the price leading to ATH's.
This chart shows that BTC has FOR NOW bounced off the 10 SMA and the 0.618 Fib.
- Bitcoin is likely to be rejected on the first pass around $9900 because of the support line made from July - September.
If you haven't already considered buying bitcoin, and you want lower prices then you might want to reconsider. Because if this breakout is confirmed on even a 12H closing basis above the trend line, then there is nothing stopping it from reaching 10k plus as a minimum.
