BTC - 1h View of my ideaThe idea is that stop-loss are below these wicks
meaning liquidity to shift LTF momentum
also gaps / order blocks below which mean an imbalance
between buyers and sellers.
When it happen price should close above inside the previous blue OB
(625xx) to validate my price action theory.
Bitcoinlong
Bitcoin Price Breaks $63,000 Following Assassination AttemptBitcoin Price Breaks $63,000 Following Assassination Attempt
In a dramatic turn of events, the price of Bitcoin surged past $63,000 following an assassination attempt on former U.S. President Donald Trump. This unexpected spike in Bitcoin’s value has captured the attention of investors and analysts worldwide, highlighting the intricate relationship between political events and financial markets.
The incident occurred during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania, where a gunman opened fire, targeting Trump. Fortunately, Trump survived the attack with minor injuries
Market Analysis
Analysts have linked the rising price of Bitcoin to improved odds of a Trump election victory. Trump’s pro-crypto stance has made him a preferred candidate for many Bitcoin advocates.
Exchanges saw heavy trading volume as Bitcoin broke above its 200-day moving average, a technical level viewed by many as a bullish signal.
Bitcoin’s recent price movement is part of a broader trend of volatility in the cryptocurrency market. Earlier this month, Bitcoin’s value had dipped to lows near $53,000 due to Mt Gox pay out and German government action with Bitcoin. However, the cryptocurrency has shown resilience, bouncing back and regaining its footing above $60,000.
Investor Sentiment
The assassination attempt on Trump has been described as a “black swan event” by some crypto commentators, referring to its unexpected nature and significant impact on the market.
Investors are now closely watching the market to see if Bitcoin can sustain its current momentum and potentially reach new all-time highs.
Future Outlook
Looking ahead, the future of Bitcoin remains uncertain but promising. If Trump continues to gain political traction and maintains his pro-crypto stance, Bitcoin could see further gains.
However, it’s important to note that the cryptocurrency market is inherently volatile, and external factors such as regulatory changes, technological advancements, and macroeconomic trends will continue to play a significant role in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory.
Conclusion
The recent surge in Bitcoin’s price following the assassination attempt on Donald Trump underscores the complex interplay between politics and financial markets. As Bitcoin continues to evolve and gain mainstream acceptance, events like these will likely become more common, reflecting the growing influence of cryptocurrencies in the global economy.
Investors and analysts will be keeping a close eye on future developments, particularly in the political arena, as they assess the potential impact on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies
BTCOf the opinion BTC has entered into marco w5 of the HTF (3) wave. The (3) is set to hit $90-$110k .
For now the marco 1 has entered into a diagonal pattern which is a combination of ABC 3 waves inside of an impulsive 5 wave structure.
I have the local top at $61,000 before a pull back to $54-$56,000 for marco 2 of 5 of (3)
The rise of Bitcoin will be the rise of $ENJ and $EFI Let me tell you why I will only give you ten reason why Gamification (not p2e) is the new narrative next year, it will foreshadow something that is big for 2025 to make a great comeback for p2e games.
1. Gaming is a $200B+ industry primed for NFT and blockchain disruption enabling true ownership of in-game assets.
2. High demand for using real-world IP from global brands like Star Trek, Formula 1, and gaming IPs in tokenization efforts as RWAs.
3. Recent ruling that NFTs can represent legal ownership brings regulatory clarity for blockchain assets backed by real assets.
4. Next billion crypto users more likely to first access web3 through gamified experiences vs trading/DeFi products initially.
5. Value accrual to decentralized gaming platforms and token incentives rather than centralized game publishers alone unlocks new growth.
6. Combining decentralization benefits with existing fun gaming experiences and communities supercharges adoption.
7. Success of trailblazers like Axie Infinity demonstrates blockchain gamification viability.
8. Facebook rebranding to Meta signals wider market realization of token metaverses and blockchain games as the future.
9. Enjin simplifies game asset creation across 50+ chains while handling complex token economics and distribution.
10. Over $100B in NFT trade volume last year shows exponential increase; gaming and gamified NFTs poised to grab market share.
Now this is my short thesis for Enjin and EFI token.
1. Next-gen Enjin Wallet integrates Efinity and Polkadot parachains to enable advanced NFT support.
2. JumpNet launch provides free, eco-friendly blockchain custom-built for NFTs, removing gas fees barrier.
3. Multiple collaborations continue with brands like McLaren Racing introducing NFT fan engagement within games.
4. Growing ecosystem of projects leveraging Enjin for tokenized gaming assets and experiences.
***I supposedly not post this publicly but I will give it for free, it should be for my community only but here you go.*** FEAST my brothers and sisters.
BTCUSD Bullish Robbery PlanMy Dear Robbers / Traders,
This is our master plan to Heist BTCUSD Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money.
Stop Loss : Recent Swing Low using 4h timeframe
Warning : Fundamental Analysis comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
support our robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Join your hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style.
BTC Long - Take Profit Targets (Short Term/Scalp)🚀 CRYPTOCAP:BTC Update: Soaring High! 🚀
My positions are crushing it! 🤑 Time to start locking in some gains. 😎
Scaling out in these zones:
#BTC: $59.5K - $63.5K 🎯
Already de-risked 25% as we hit the lower end of my targets. Smart money secures profits along the way! 😉
Remember, this is NOT financial advice. Do your own research and trade responsibly! 🧠
Thank you
If you’ve found this useful and are interested in learning more, please consider freely supporting my content: 🙏
🔗 Follow me: @endeavor_quest
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BTC → Bitcoin to $40,000? Or to $80,000? Let's Answer.Hello everyone, I am back! I spent the last couple of months finishing the trading course, which is now live. With that project complete, I am back to the analysis!
My Bitcoin Weekly analysis has not dramatically changed since March 25th. Bitcoin is now staring at the $65,000 to $74,000 resistance zone. A double top has formed after three pushes up, and we have closed below the Weekly 30EMA.
How do we trade this? 🤔
We ought to be looking for a long entry since Bitcoin is bullish on this timeframe. We now have three completed pushes toward the upside ending with a double-top in the resistance zone, we need to at least wait for a two-legged pullback toward the Support Zone between $40,000 and $45,000. Once successful signal and confirmation candles close above the Weekly 200EMA, it's reasonable to enter a long position at a 1:2 Risk/Reward ratio. Stop loss should be set below the Weekly 200EMA at $32,350, the first take profit at 1:1 Risk/Reward at $51,600 where the stop loss is moved to your entry price, then the final take profit at $61,300 before the Resistance Zone at $65,000.
💡 Trade Idea 💡
Long Entry: $42,000
🟥 Stop Loss: $32,350
✅ Take Profit #1: $51,600
✅ Take Profit #2: $61,300
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2
🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑
1. Three pushes up into the Resistance Zone at $65,000 - $74,000
2. Double-top reversal pattern completed inside Resistance Zone
3. Weekly close below the 30EMA, more confirmation of a pullback
4. Wait for a two-legged pullback toward the 200EMA in the Support Zone between $40,000 and $45,000
5. RSI is near 49.00 and below the Moving Average. Wait for contact and a final drop toward 40.00 in concurrence with the price action to enter.
💰 Trading Tip 💰
It's reasonable to take half profits at the first resistance target in a long trade, or the first support target in a short trade. Using a 1:1 Risk/Reward Ratio for your first target, you can move your stop loss up to your entry price, locking in profits. This allows you to watch the rest of the trade execute without worry of losing money. This helps improve trading psychology and the equity in your account.
⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!
Like 👍 and Follow to learn more about:
1. Reading Price Action
2. Chart Analysis
3. Trade Management
4. Trading Psychology
Bitcoin Price Nears 200-Day SMA: Bullish Signal on the Horizon?
Bitcoin (BTC), the world's leading cryptocurrency, has been on a rollercoaster ride in 2024. After a strong start to the year, prices dipped below the crucial 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) in early July, sparking concerns about a potential bear market. However, recent price movements suggest a potential bullish reversal, with Bitcoin again hovering close to the 200-day SMA.
The 200-Day SMA: A Key Indicator
The 200-day SMA is a technical analysis tool investors use to gauge the long-term trend of an asset's price. It's calculated by averaging the closing price of Bitcoin over the past 200 days. This metric helps smooth out short-term price fluctuations and provides a clearer picture of the overall market direction.
Historically, the 200-day SMA has played a pivotal role in identifying bull and bear markets for Bitcoin. When the price trades above the 200-day SMA, it's generally seen as a bullish signal, indicating an upward trend. Conversely, prices consistently falling below the SMA suggest a bearish market.
Bitcoin's Recent Price Movements
In early July, Bitcoin dipped below the 200-day SMA for the first time since August 2023. This triggered anxieties among some investors, questioning the sustainability of the current bull run. However, it's important to note that such temporary dips below the SMA have occurred during previous bull markets.
For instance, in 2016, Bitcoin fell below the 200-day SMA for three months before embarking on a significant upward trajectory that culminated in the 2017 bull run. Similarly, in 2023, Bitcoin dipped below the SMA in August but recovered shortly after, continuing its bull run through the end of the year.
Reclaiming the 200-Day SMA: A Potential Bullish Signal
The current situation presents a critical juncture for Bitcoin. It could be a significant bullish signal if the price can successfully reclaim the 200-day SMA and maintain a position above it. This would suggest a continuation of the current bull run and potentially pave the way for further price increases.
There's historical precedent for such a scenario. In early 2023, Bitcoin successfully reclaimed the 200-day SMA after a brief dip, marking the beginning of a strong bull run that lasted throughout most of the year.
Factors Supporting a Bullish Outlook
Several factors contribute to the potential for a bullish reversal. Firstly, Bitcoin's underlying fundamentals remain strong. The network continues to experience steady growth in hash rate, indicating strong miner participation and network security. Additionally, institutional adoption of Bitcoin is on the rise, with major investment firms and corporations increasingly recognizing its potential as a valuable asset class.
Secondly, the recent price dip could be attributed to short-term market corrections and profit-taking by some investors. These temporary fluctuations are natural occurrences within any bull market and shouldn't necessarily be interpreted as a sign of a long-term bearish trend.
Looking Ahead: Important Considerations
While the current price movements suggest a potential bullish outlook, it's crucial to maintain a cautious and realistic perspective. The cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile, and unforeseen events can trigger significant price swings.
Investors should closely monitor economic factors, regulations, and industry developments that could impact Bitcoin's price. Additionally, conducting thorough technical and fundamental analysis is essential before making any investment decisions.
Conclusion
Bitcoin's price hovering near the 200-day SMA presents a fascinating situation. While a successful reclaim of the SMA could signal an upcoming bullish phase, continued vigilance and comprehensive analysis are necessary. The cryptocurrency market is dynamic, and investors should be prepared for potential volatility. However, the underlying strength of Bitcoin's network and growing institutional adoption suggest that the long-term outlook remains promising.
BTC: Buying in the Dip?CME: BTC Futures ( CME:BTC1! )
Bitcoin plunged last week as investors focused on the payout of nearly $9 billion to investors of collapsed bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox. Spot price slumped to as low as $53,513 on Friday, marking the first time that bitcoin traded below the $55K level since Feb. 27th.
Another big bitcoin seller is the German government. In January, German police seized 50,000 bitcoins in connection with the prosecution of movie piracy operation Moview2k. Last week, they began selling thousands of bitcoins, adding to the current selloff pressure.
Last Friday, CME Bitcoin Futures ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) settled at 56,685, a drawdown of more than $15,300 or -21% since June. CME Ether Futures ( CRYPTOCAP:ETH ) closed at 2,997, down $900 or -23% in a month. Both cryptocurrencies are still up about 25% year-to-date.
Opinion: Bitcoin May Rebound and Reach New High
The big selling from Mt. Gox and the German government temporarily increased available bitcoin supply in the spot market, pushing its prices down. Both sellers could dump tens of thousands more bitcoins to the open markets in the coming weeks.
However, total bitcoin supply is still capped at 2.1 million. The recent halving event in April reduced newly mined bitcoin coming to market while increasing the cost of mining.
Meanwhile, the demand for crypto investment could increase substantially with bitcoin ETF funds. Once the dust is settled, we will have a market with limited supply and increasing demand. This is an economic formula for higher prices.
Unlike previous market downturns, the recent drawdown in bitcoin prices is not necessarily reflective of a bearish view from investors. The trustee managing Mr. Gox asset needs to sell bitcoins to make investors whole, ten years after its bankruptcy. The German government sells bitcoins also mainly for legal reasons.
Investors are not panicking. On the contrary, we hear that the founder of blockchain platform TRON offered to pay $2.3 billion to the German government for its entire bitcoin holding. This proposed private transaction is aimed at minimizing market volatility.
Additionally, escalated geopolitical tensions in Europe and Middle East also draw investors to cryptocurrencies, to diversify and hedge their assets.
We can find validation from CFTC Commitment of Traders report. As of June 25th, total open interest (OI) for CME Bitcoin Futures is 32,277 contracts. Asset managers has 17,531 contracts in long position, vs. only 493 contracts in short position. The 35-to-1 long-short ratio indicates strong bullish view from long-term bitcoin investors.
Overall, I hold the view that bitcoin would come out of the current downturn relatively quickly and would rebound and potentially reach new highs before the end of the year.
Long Futures with Put Protection
On May 6th, I published the idea, “HODL with a Twist”, and explored using Futures Rollover strategy to invest in bitcoin for the long haul.
Last Friday, the September Bitcoin Futures contract (BTCU4) was settled at 57,695. Each contract has a notional value of 5 bitcoins, or a market value of $288,475. To buy or sell 1 contract, a trader is required to post an initial margin of $69,234. The margining requirement reflects a built-in leverage of 4-to-1. It’s cost-effective investing with CME bitcoin futures, vs. buying bitcoins from bitcoin spot market or the ETF funds.
From bitcoin price history, we learn that it tended to reach new highs after market downturns. However, each drawdown could be very significant, and at times well over 50%. Today, as I reconfirm my bullish view, I also want to add protective put options to hedge our long futures position due to the risk of short-term market correction.
Last Friday, put strike at 50,000 for the September BTC contract was settled at 2,485. A trader will pay $12,425 (= 2,485 x 5) upfront to buy a put option.
Let’s use a hypothetical trade to illustrate how the long futures with protective put strategy differs from buying spot bitcoin or bitcoin ETF.
Hypothetical Trade:
• Buy 1 BTCU4 contract at 57,695, and set a stop loss at 50,000
• Buy 1 put option on BTCU4 at the 50,000-strike for $12,425
• Trader pays $69,234 initial margin for futures and $12,425 for put options, totaling $81,659
Scenario 1: Bitcoin drops to $36,000
• This is 50% drawdown from the high price reached in June
• Futures stop loss at 50,000, and the loss incurred in futures account will be $38,475 (= (57695-50000) x 5)
• Put options become exercisable at 50,000, and the gain will be $70,000 (= (50000-36000) x 5)
• The combined profit/loss for this strategy will be $31,525 (= 70000 – 38475)
• Investment return will be +38.6% (= 31525 / 81659)
• Comparison: With no leverage, investing in spot bitcoin or bitcoin ETF will lose 50%
Scenario 2: Bitcoin rises to $80,000
• This price will be a new record, which is 7.4% above all time high reached in March
• Futures gain will be $111,525 (= (80000-57695) x 5)
• Put options will expire worthless
• The combined profit/loss for this strategy will be $99,100 (= 111525 – 12425)
• Investment return will be +121.3% (= 99100 / 81659)
• Comparison: each bitcoin gains $22,305 (= 80000-57695). Investment return in spot bitcoin or bitcoin ETF will be +38% (= 22305 / 57695)
The above scenarios show that
• when bitcoin goes up, futures will have higher returns due to its leveraged nature.
• when bitcoin falls, protect put will kick in to reduce losses and may make a profit.
There are also risks in this strategy:
• If bitcoin goes up only modestly, futures return will lag spot bitcoin investment because of the added cost of the options premium;
• If bitcoin falls but stays above 50000, futures loss will be bigger than spot bitcoin investment, since the put options could not be exercised.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN THIS ON BITCOINI always like to find pattern from the past, because history always repeat. The ghost bars pattern comes from a 2019 price action (20 October) and looks like it fits with a really possible scenario. This flash dump is necessary to liquidate most of the longs, and as soon the fear will comes to the market, maybe around $54.000, Bitcoin could range and accumulate before a crazy pump to $80.000
BTCUSD long from the very bottom of the range - RISK ON signs!Hi.
I just opened a long on BTCUSD pair because I am seeing some signs of risk-on evironment.
Bitcoin did a beautiful correction to the very bottom of H1/H4 range and produced a small Change of Character (CHoCH) on 5m timeframe.
For me it's worth a risk.
Stop loss up to you, mine is around 65k (this still can get swept before real move).
BE CAUTIOUS OF NEWS TOMORROW (CPI AND INTEREST RATE DECISION), however, as markets are great at predicting the future, and I learned to play the chart, so far this trade is worth a risk in my eyes.
Keeping an eye to start breaking 67.3k+ for more confluence so I might add more.
Stay safe and good luck!
Bitcoin: We are at Bottom!Bitcoin's price has been moving inside a range for the last 125 days. Today, the price touched the 200 EMA and the bottom of the range, which can be considered a good support level for Bitcoin.
During the early stage of the previous bullish move, Bitcoin's price remained within an accumulation range for 210 days before making a significant bullish move. This time, we can expect a similar pattern, with the price likely continuing to move inside the accumulation range for the next 1-2 months.
Bitcoin's price moves sideways at the bottom of the accumulation range for the next few days, then we can expect a gradual upward move. Once the price breaks out of the accumulation range, we can expect a significant upward move.