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BTC: Buying in the Dip?CME: BTC Futures ( CME:BTC1! ) Bitcoin plunged last week as investors focused on the payout of nearly $9 billion to investors of collapsed bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox. Spot price slumped to as low as $53,513 on Friday, marking the first time that bitcoin traded below the $55K level since Feb. 27th. Another big bitcoin seller is the German government. In January, German police seized 50,000 bitcoins in connection with the prosecution of movie piracy operation Moview2k. Last week, they began selling thousands of bitcoins, adding to the current selloff pressure. Last Friday, CME Bitcoin Futures ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) settled at 56,685, a drawdown of more than $15,300 or -21% since June. CME Ether Futures ( CRYPTOCAP:ETH ) closed at 2,997, down $900 or -23% in a month. Both cryptocurrencies are still up about 25% year-to-date. Opinion: Bitcoin May Rebound and Reach New High The big selling from Mt. Gox and the German government temporarily increased available bitcoin supply in the spot market, pushing its prices down. Both sellers could dump tens of thousands more bitcoins to the open markets in the coming weeks. However, total bitcoin supply is still capped at 2.1 million. The recent halving event in April reduced newly mined bitcoin coming to market while increasing the cost of mining. Meanwhile, the demand for crypto investment could increase substantially with bitcoin ETF funds. Once the dust is settled, we will have a market with limited supply and increasing demand. This is an economic formula for higher prices. Unlike previous market downturns, the recent drawdown in bitcoin prices is not necessarily reflective of a bearish view from investors. The trustee managing Mr. Gox asset needs to sell bitcoins to make investors whole, ten years after its bankruptcy. The German government sells bitcoins also mainly for legal reasons. Investors are not panicking. On the contrary, we hear that the founder of blockchain platform TRON offered to pay $2.3 billion to the German government for its entire bitcoin holding. This proposed private transaction is aimed at minimizing market volatility. Additionally, escalated geopolitical tensions in Europe and Middle East also draw investors to cryptocurrencies, to diversify and hedge their assets. We can find validation from CFTC Commitment of Traders report. As of June 25th, total open interest (OI) for CME Bitcoin Futures is 32,277 contracts. Asset managers has 17,531 contracts in long position, vs. only 493 contracts in short position. The 35-to-1 long-short ratio indicates strong bullish view from long-term bitcoin investors. Overall, I hold the view that bitcoin would come out of the current downturn relatively quickly and would rebound and potentially reach new highs before the end of the year. Long Futures with Put Protection On May 6th, I published the idea, “HODL with a Twist”, and explored using Futures Rollover strategy to invest in bitcoin for the long haul. Last Friday, the September Bitcoin Futures contract (BTCU4) was settled at 57,695. Each contract has a notional value of 5 bitcoins, or a market value of $288,475. To buy or sell 1 contract, a trader is required to post an initial margin of $69,234. The margining requirement reflects a built-in leverage of 4-to-1. It’s cost-effective investing with CME bitcoin futures, vs. buying bitcoins from bitcoin spot market or the ETF funds. From bitcoin price history, we learn that it tended to reach new highs after market downturns. However, each drawdown could be very significant, and at times well over 50%. Today, as I reconfirm my bullish view, I also want to add protective put options to hedge our long futures position due to the risk of short-term market correction. Last Friday, put strike at 50,000 for the September BTC contract was settled at 2,485. A trader will pay $12,425 (= 2,485 x 5) upfront to buy a put option. Let’s use a hypothetical trade to illustrate how the long futures with protective put strategy differs from buying spot bitcoin or bitcoin ETF. Hypothetical Trade: • Buy 1 BTCU4 contract at 57,695, and set a stop loss at 50,000 • Buy 1 put option on BTCU4 at the 50,000-strike for $12,425 • Trader pays $69,234 initial margin for futures and $12,425 for put options, totaling $81,659 Scenario 1: Bitcoin drops to $36,000 • This is 50% drawdown from the high price reached in June • Futures stop loss at 50,000, and the loss incurred in futures account will be $38,475 (= (57695-50000) x 5) • Put options become exercisable at 50,000, and the gain will be $70,000 (= (50000-36000) x 5) • The combined profit/loss for this strategy will be $31,525 (= 70000 – 38475) • Investment return will be +38.6% (= 31525 / 81659) • Comparison: With no leverage, investing in spot bitcoin or bitcoin ETF will lose 50% Scenario 2: Bitcoin rises to $80,000 • This price will be a new record, which is 7.4% above all time high reached in March • Futures gain will be $111,525 (= (80000-57695) x 5) • Put options will expire worthless • The combined profit/loss for this strategy will be $99,100 (= 111525 – 12425) • Investment return will be +121.3% (= 99100 / 81659) • Comparison: each bitcoin gains $22,305 (= 80000-57695). Investment return in spot bitcoin or bitcoin ETF will be +38% (= 22305 / 57695) The above scenarios show that • when bitcoin goes up, futures will have higher returns due to its leveraged nature. • when bitcoin falls, protect put will kick in to reduce losses and may make a profit. There are also risks in this strategy: • If bitcoin goes up only modestly, futures return will lag spot bitcoin investment because of the added cost of the options premium; • If bitcoin falls but stays above 50000, futures loss will be bigger than spot bitcoin investment, since the put options could not be exercised. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:BTC1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
1
BTCUSD long from the very bottom of the range - RISK ON signs!Hi. I just opened a long on BTCUSD pair because I am seeing some signs of risk-on evironment. Bitcoin did a beautiful correction to the very bottom of H1/H4 range and produced a small Change of Character (CHoCH) on 5m timeframe. For me it's worth a risk. Stop loss up to you, mine is around 65k (this still can get swept before real move). BE CAUTIOUS OF NEWS TOMORROW (CPI AND INTEREST RATE DECISION), however, as markets are great at predicting the future, and I learned to play the chart, so far this trade is worth a risk in my eyes. Keeping an eye to start breaking 67.3k+ for more confluence so I might add more. Stay safe and good luck!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by AdiVV
Bitcoin: We are at Bottom!Bitcoin's price has been moving inside a range for the last 125 days. Today, the price touched the 200 EMA and the bottom of the range, which can be considered a good support level for Bitcoin. During the early stage of the previous bullish move, Bitcoin's price remained within an accumulation range for 210 days before making a significant bullish move. This time, we can expect a similar pattern, with the price likely continuing to move inside the accumulation range for the next 1-2 months. Bitcoin's price moves sideways at the bottom of the accumulation range for the next few days, then we can expect a gradual upward move. Once the price breaks out of the accumulation range, we can expect a significant upward move.
Long
by HexaTrades
2
Technical Analysis for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) with trade plan Technical Analysis for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) Overview: The chart indicates that Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) has formed a falling wedge pattern, which is typically a bullish reversal pattern. The price has recently hit a second bottom within the wedge and is showing signs of a potential breakout. Key Levels: Support Levels: Immediate support around $58,000. Stronger support at the lower boundary of the wedge around $55,000. Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance around $60,000. Major resistance at $62,500. Target resistance levels at $67,500 and $72,500 after a confirmed breakout. Indicators: Volume: Volume is relatively steady, with potential for an increase during breakout attempts. Market Cipher B (MCB): The MCB indicator shows a potential divergence and has bottomed out, suggesting a potential reversal. Relative Strength Index (RSI): RSI is currently around 29.65, indicating oversold conditions and a potential for upward movement. Stochastic RSI: Stochastic RSI is showing a bullish crossover, indicating a potential for upward price movement. Trading Plan: Intraday Trading: Entry: Look for a bounce from the immediate support around $58,000 or a confirmed break above $60,000. Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss slightly below the support at $57,500. Targets: First target at $60,000. Second target at $62,500. Scalping: Entry: Enter long positions on small pullbacks or breakouts above key resistance levels (e.g., $58,500 and $60,000). Stop-Loss: Tight stop-loss around $57,800. Targets: First target at $59,500. Second target at $60,500. Exit positions quickly if momentum slows. Swing Trading: Entry: Wait for a confirmed breakout above the falling wedge, ideally above $60,000. Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss below the recent swing low at $55,000. Targets: First target at $67,500 (mid-term resistance). Second target at $72,500 (long-term resistance). Conclusion: The current technical setup for Bitcoin suggests a potential bullish reversal with a possible breakout from the falling wedge pattern. Intraday and scalping strategies should focus on key support and resistance levels with tight stop-losses. Swing trading offers a more significant upside potential if the breakout above $60,000 is confirmed. Monitoring volume and price action closely around these levels will be crucial for making informed trading decisions. Advice for Long Position: Confirmation: Ensure a confirmed breakout above $60,000 before entering long positions. Risk Management: Use appropriate stop-losses to manage risk effectively. Targets: Aim for targets at $67,500 and $72,500 for swing trades, adjusting stops as the trade progresses. By following this plan and keeping an eye on market conditions, traders can capitalize on the potential bullish reversal in Bitcoin.
Long
by elfabiiani
Bitcoin - Eventually hitting $250.000?BITSTAMP:BTCUSD is looking extremely bullish despite the recent 4 month consolidation. For more than four months, Bitcoin has basically been moving sideways, experiencing quite volatile swings towards the upside and downside. However we should not neglect the overall bullish behaviour of Bitcoin which is still creating cycle and correction after cycle and correction. Therefore, maybe after a short term pullback, I do expect (much) higher prices on Bitcoin. Levels to watch: $67.000, $37.000 Keep your long term vision, Philip - BasicTrading
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by basictradingtv
14
Bitcoin - upside potential in the next 24 hours The cryptocurrency trend was negative over the past 24 hours, as seized Bitcoins continue to be offloaded to crypto exchanges. Yesterday, the German government offloaded an additional 832.7 seized Bitcoins to centralized crypto exchanges such as Kraken and Bitstamp, Lookonchain reports. On Monday, it transferred 1,500 Bitcoins. The German government still holds a total of 43,859 Bitcoins worth $2.7 billion at today’s price. The price of Bitcoin dropped 2.8 percent to $61,146 over the past 24 hours, Trading View’s Bitcoin chart shows. It now trades 17 percent below its all-time high of $73,628. Standard Chartered foresees its price hitting an all-time high next month and trading around $100,000 by November when the US presidential elections are held, $150,000 by year-end and $200,000 by the end of 2025, the Block reports. ATTMO forecasts mostly sunny trading conditions for Bitcoin, translating into a slightly bullish market, for the next 24 hours. Check attmo.ai to get insights into the 3-day and 7-day forecast for Bitcoin and the rest of the market.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ATTMO
Technical Analysis of Harmony (ONE/USDT) on Binance Technical Analysis of Harmony (ONE/USDT) by Blaž Fabjan Chart Overview Harmony (ONE/USDT) on a 4-hour timeframe. The following key technical elements are observed: Descending Triangle Pattern: A descending triangle pattern is visible, characterized by a series of lower highs and a horizontal support line around the 0.01380 USDT level. This pattern is often seen as a bearish continuation pattern, but it can also lead to a bullish breakout. Volume: The volume is displayed at the bottom, showing a recent spike which may indicate increasing interest and potential for a breakout. Indicators: WMG Cipher B Divergences: Shows multiple divergences indicating potential bullish reversals. RSL (Relative Strength Line): Currently at 36.07, suggesting the market is nearing oversold conditions. Stochastic Oscillator: At 5.88, indicating the market is in an oversold condition, which could suggest a potential upward movement. Trading Plan 1. Intraday Trading Entry: Look for a breakout above the descending triangle's resistance line at approximately 0.01420 USDT with a confirmation candle on the 15-minute chart. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss just below the recent swing low at 0.01370 USDT. Take Profit: Initial target at the previous resistance level around 0.01500 USDT. Adjust stop loss to breakeven if price reaches 0.01460 USDT. 2. Scalping Entry: Enter trades at support and resistance levels within the triangle, focusing on quick in-and-out trades. Support Levels: 0.01380 USDT Resistance Levels: 0.01420 USDT Stop Loss: Tight stop loss of 0.001 USDT below the entry point. Take Profit: Aim for small, consistent profits of 0.002 USDT per trade. 3. Swing Trading Entry: Wait for a confirmed breakout above the descending triangle at 0.01420 USDT on the 4-hour chart. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss below the breakout point at 0.01380 USDT. Take Profit: Set initial target at 0.01600 USDT and a secondary target at 0.01800 USDT. Use a trailing stop loss to lock in profits as the price moves in favor. Conclusion and Advice Given the current chart patterns and indicators, a long position could be considered if a confirmed breakout above the descending triangle at 0.01420 USDT occurs. The oversold conditions indicated by both the RSL and the Stochastic Oscillator support the potential for a bullish reversal. However, traders should be cautious and watch for a confirmation of the breakout to avoid false signals. Advice for Long Position: Patience is key: Wait for a confirmed breakout and avoid entering positions prematurely. Risk Management: Ensure proper stop loss placement to mitigate risks. Volume Confirmation: Watch for an increase in volume to confirm the breakout. In summary, Harmony (ONE/USDT) shows potential for a bullish move, but confirmation and proper risk management are crucial for successful trading.
Long
by elfabiiani
BTCUSD Bitcoin Robbery Plan in Bullish DirectionMy Dear Robbers / Traders, This is our master plan to Heist BTCUSD Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich. Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Stop Loss: Recent Swing Low using 4h timeframe Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target. support our robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Join your hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by Thief_Trader
Back at the 100x longIt looks like btc is bouncing off key support at 56500-59500 usd. Key resistance is now at 72-74k. It has stayed in this trend from going in between these zones since late February (last 4 months). The RSI was also oversold at both 4H and daily. We are now looking for the MACD to flip bullish at higher timeframes 4H-1D (it is already bullish at 1H). When btc confirmed support (looking to at least get a bounce) and broke out of the downward sloping trend. I went in with a 100x long. The trade has been made risk free and I will move my stop loss into more profits (usually under the last bottom) as prices keep rising. Btc and the S&P500 index is also related and the S&P500 index is reversing and has some nasty gaps to fill. I predict that this index will get a correction of at least 7%. This is bullish for bitcoin! But let me tell more about the current trade. The worst possible scenario at the time of writing is that I get a 152% ROI and the best that can happen is that I make a 2000% ROI. This is a good position to be in if you ask me. I will make money regardless!
Long
by Madmantrades
2
Technical Analysis for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) 1h chart on Binance.Hello! I will make today, a techical analysis of price action, indicators and price projection with trade plans. Price Action: Bitcoin appears to be in a channel up formation recently and has just broken out to the downside. Volume: The volume profile indicates a decline, suggesting a potential lack of buying interest at current levels. Indicators Analysis: VMC Cipher B + Divergences: Shows a downward momentum with red dots appearing at the recent peaks indicating bearish divergence. RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently at 50.06, moving slightly downward. This neutral reading suggests there is no strong momentum either way, but the recent trend is slightly bearish. Stochastic Oscillator: Shows a downward movement with the current reading at 37.36, indicating a bearish crossover in the lower half of the range which suggests potential further downside. Price Projection: The chart suggests a possible downward movement before a significant bounce. The projected path indicates a drop followed by a strong upward trajectory. Trading Plans Intraday Trading: Strategy: Focus on short-term momentum and volatility. Entry Point: Look for short positions if price breaks below the recent low around $61,553.95 with significant volume. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss just above the recent high of the breakout channel, approximately $61,800. Target: Aim for quick scalps in the range of $61,300 to $61,000 for intraday trades. Consider taking profits incrementally. Scalping: Strategy: Use smaller timeframes (1-minute to 5-minute charts) to capture quick price movements. Entry Point: Enter short positions on bearish confirmation patterns such as breakouts from consolidation patterns or failed retests of resistance. Stop Loss: Tight stop losses around $100 above the entry point to minimize risk. Target: Look for quick profits in the range of $50-$150 per trade. Swing Trading: Strategy: Take advantage of the larger projected move. Entry Point: Wait for the price to reach the anticipated lower level (around $60,000) as per the chart projection and show signs of reversal (e.g., bullish candlestick patterns, divergence in indicators). Stop Loss: Set a stop loss below the key support level around $59,500 to protect against further downside. Target: Aim for the upper projected target in the chart, around $68,000 to $70,000 for a higher reward-to-risk ratio. Conclusion and Advice: Short-Term (Intraday/Scalping): The current bearish indicators suggest short positions could be profitable. However, due to the overall market volatility, ensure tight risk management. Long-Term (Swing Trading): There is potential for a significant upside after a possible near-term dip. Consider waiting for confirmation of reversal patterns at lower levels before entering long positions. Advice: For short-term traders, focus on short positions until the projected bottom is confirmed. For long-term traders, look for buying opportunities at the lower levels indicated in the chart, aligning with the projected path. Note: Always ensure proper risk management and use trailing stops to lock in profits while mitigating losses. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it's important to adapt to new information as it becomes available.
Long
by elfabiiani
Bitcoin long termNo calculations in that chart This is insight for my self, so i can find it from batch of my BTC charts I've changed to bull around 50k This chart conducted from my sketch at BLX I will be happy to discuss with real experts, why and so on Can everything break earlier? Yes But i consider this less, otherwise we will certainly! see where we are and change shoes. Why was Ok to swich from Bear? The decision about the fund was not included in (TA)price, because decision was made very cunningly. Exactly in that price zone, if a decision on ETF was not, a flat correction ccould happen, and this would fit into all the norms of TA, that is why a lot of shorts, same time others thought that it would be "buy on rumors, sell on news", same time in special price zone, Gary Gensler tweeted that SEC was hacked about ETF approval. Next level where they able to break the market is 71-77 k, if we go upper then we have two next price ranges 96-99 and 100-109 K. Then we see.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by salgssjef