Bitcoinparabolic
Bitcoin Again Going Parabolic To Hit Upto $300KHi friends hope you are well today we will see how the Bitcoin turns parabolic after every halving event. For this purpose I would like to take you back to the first halvening event of 2012. And on weekly long-term chart we can observe that after the halving event the price action went strong bullish and moved in parabolic way for next one year. This powerful bullish rally was up to 10,000% and that was really a big move. After achieving the highest price the BTC dropped down again and in June 2014 the Bitcoin showed a recovery rally. That was the time when the people would be thinking that it it will be recovered back to the highest price that was $1163 at that time. But the price action moved down again and retraced up to 0.786 Fibonacci level. After this retracement the price action formed a double bottom on the strongest support of 200 simple moving average and turned bullish again.
Parabolic move after halving event of 2016:
Now if we take a look at the halving event of 2016. Then after this event the price action againg turned parabolic bullish and produced more than 3000% gains. After achieving the highest price the leading cryptocurrency dropped down again and in the month of June 2019 the price action again showed a recovery move up to $13880. And this was the time when we were thinking that the Bitcoin has finally started recovery rally and it will be moved back up to the previous highest price level. That is the $20,000 but the price action of Bitcoin again moved down and retraced up to 0.786 Fibonacci level. This time we can see that the priceline has again formed a double bottom on the 200 simple moving average on this weekly chart like it was happened back in 2015.
Parabolic move after halving event of 2020:
Now after this double bottom formation on 200SMA the price action has gone through the 2020 halving event. Therefore we can expect another parabolic move by the priceline of BTC. If we notice the previous bullish move after the halving event of 2016 then that was 70% less profitable than the bullish move that was happened after the halving event of 2012. So if we expect the 70% less profit that was produced after the halving event of 2016 then the BTC can easily achieve $100,000 price level. However if the Bitcoin again produces 3000% profit than it can reach upto $300K.
Bitcoin is parabolic since came into existence:
Now if we take a look at the complete price action of Bitcoin since it has been came into existence. Then it can be clearly seen that the Bitcoin is moving parabolic. And it has never truned bearish, because we can see after achieving every highest price level the Bitcoin retraces between 0.382 to 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. And the retracement upto 0.786 Fibonacci level can be called a correction move. Therefore we can say that after achieving every highest price in the history of Bitcoin the Bitcoin starts a correction for the next bullish move.
The most important factor behind this parabolic move:
On this weekly chart we can also observe that the basic reason for the parabolic bullish move of the Bitcoin is the 200 simple moving average. As this moving average is also moving in parabolic shape and not letting the price action to break down this 200SMA support. And this time again the priceline has hit at this support level and took bounce for the next bullish move and the 200 SMA is lifting up the Bitcoin price level in the parabolic way.
Conclusion:
After every halving event the BTC turns parabolic. If this happens again then Bitcoin can easily reach the $100K to $300K price level within next 2 to 3 years.
Note: This idea is education purpose only and not intended to be investment advice, please seek a duly licensed professional and do you own research before any investment.
Trading Bitcoin in a Parabolic Curve - Possible $30,000 TopFirst off, I'd like to shout out a fellow trading view analyst @filbfilb who predicted with high accuracy a $20,000 top and a regression to the mean of $3,000 in December of 2017 by using a similar style chart of analyzing a parabolic curve on Bitcoin.
I'm taking his concept and applying it to the current trend and 2019.
There are so many macroeconomic events that are creating a bullish vaccum for Bitcoin right now:
- Weakening world fiat currencies
- Trade tensions
- Federal Reserve Interest Rates
- S&P500 looking toppy.
- Economic sanctions.
- Yield curves on bonds moving upwards.
From the parabolic chart, it appears that we are currently breaking out of the Base 3, which is one of the fastest acceleration points for an asset.
In 2017, we saw multiple 40% corrections in Bitcoin during its ascent to $20,000, but for 2019, we haven't had a single correction over 30% so far.
This can be attributed to a lot of reasons, but a parabolic trend is where there are no sellers left as price rises due to supply/demand and it creates a vacuum where there is only buying pressure.
You will see slight profit taking at different levels as each person/institution will have a set target range for them to exit an asset, but new buyers will typically step in.
Based on Google trends, there is barely an uptick in retail interest so far, which means that this is being driven by institutional interest and not so much retail.
I derived $30,000 top from my Fibonacci levels that I created over a year ago, which lines up with the 29.034 Canfield Fibonacci level. I had previously been anticipating a cycle high at the 46.979 fibonacci level at $52,000, which may be the cycle top.
So to be clear, I am not claiming that $30,000 will be the cycle top for now, but will be a strong resistance level where we should see some strong profit taking and a potential parabolic break to the downside towards the .618 fibonacci retracement level around $13,500.
If you don't remember those fibonacci zones, I derived them from the following equations beyond the 4.23 to track long term assets in an uptrend.
• 6.854 = Any number in the sequence / 3rd number prior in the sequence
• 11.090 = 1.6185 = Any Number / 4th number prior in the sequence
• 17.944 = 1.6186 = Any Number / 5th number prior in in the sequence
• 29.034 = 1.6187 = Any number /6th number prior in the sequence
• 46.979 = 1.6188 = Any number / 7th number prior in the sequence
• 76.013 = 1.6189 = Any number / 8th number prior in the sequence
• 122.992 = 1.61810 = Any number / 9th 2.88% number prior in the sequence.
This also coincides with an intermediate cycle top that corresponds to Positive Crypto's golden ratio multilpier as well that Crypto Hamster took and made into an indicator on Trading View (just search Golden Multipler)
Strategy:
Ideally, you stay in a long position until the trend breaks and if you are looking to short, I would do it with 1X at the resistance levels outlined above to create a 'synthetic cash' position to hedge yourself with a stop loss above each resistance point. RESISTANCE ZONES: $16,800 and $28000-$30000.
Let me know what you think of my work and if you want to support me, give this idea a like and leave a comment below.
Thanks!
Is Bitcoin still parabolic? Projections to consider.With most bear cycle models showing that Bitcoin is approaching a bottom, it is useful to go back to its original growth pattern. The parabolic curve that has delivered High after High over this decade long time span.
Based on that parabolic pattern we have identified 4 possible growth scenarios leading to the next All Time High using duration and % increase parameters of each cycle.
Scenario (A): High around 53,300. Follows the 2012/2013 Bull Cycle.
This projection suggests that the candle sequence will follow 2012/2013 bullish pattern. High to High measurement 882 days. High estimated for May 2020.
Scenario (B): High around 58,700. Follows the 2015/2017 Bull Cycle.
This projection suggests that the candle sequence will follow 2015/2017 bullish pattern. High to High measurement 1492 days. High estimated for January 2022.
Scenario (C): High around 126,300.
This projection assumes that the High to High sequence increases by +20 bars from the previous one. The June 2011 - November 2013 High to High sequence is measured at 29 bars. The November 2013 - December 2017 is measured at 49 bars. If the next High to High sequence follows this +20 bar pattern then the measurement will be at 69 bars i.e. 2100 days. High estimated for September 2023.
Scenario (D): High around 158,000.
This projection assumes that the High to High sequence increases by +68.96% from the previous one. The June 2011 - November 2013 High to High sequence is measured at 29 bars. The November 2013 - December 2017 is measured at 49 bars, +68.96% of the 29 bars of the previous sequence. If the next High to High sequence follows this +68.96% pattern then the measurement will be at 82 bars i.e. 2496 days. High estimated for October 2024.
Based on a parameter similarity score, the Scenario that appears to be most probable is (B) as its High to High and Low to High measurements are identical to the cycle it immitates.
If you seek more insight on cycle comparisons and projections, see below how we have compared the current Bear Cycle to the 2014/2015 and 2011/2012.
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