BTC & Crypto Market Forecast. 4 Yr Cycle Top and Elliot WavesIn this video, I've pulled up an old chart from 2022 I've had on my desktop (not my original chart) that shows potential Waves 3-5 for Bitcion and the 4 year cycle high time targets.
In my new chart, I've re-created this showing that we're ahead of schedule from the dark study, and the 4 year past cycle time targets for reaching ATH around 539 days after the halving.
But as we know, we hit ATH's this cycle already BEFORE the halving, so it's unclear how that's going to affect the next phase. It would certainly make sense, that everybody (Big money, smart money and even us dumb money retail traders) will be looking to 'go all in' early...
But also to GET OUT early.
Remember, it's a game of musical chairs.. and the music is speeding up.
For these reasons, and other global economic and political influences...
I think we could STILL see a left-translated cycle and a parabolic bull rally going into Dec of this year... Unsure if that would be THE Top, but I'd be looking for some profit taking and correction there, which most likely WILL LOOK like the top. But may not actually be.
We may still see the 4 year cycle play out, and continue to push higher until October '25 as the original study suggests (539 days post-halving).
On the one hand, some are suggesting a deflationary market bust in early 2025 for both the stock market and Bitcoin / crypto.
We'll have to wait and see.
But it does look like we're experiencing the Wave 4 pullback, and poised to beging the final Wave 5 phase of the bull-run.
What do you think?
Would appreciate any likes, comments, or compliments below. Cheer always welcome!
To the moon 🚀
Bitcoinprediction
UPTOBER HERE WE COME!Dear Traders and CryptoLovers!
October is here, and that means one thing—Uptober!
Historically, October has been a bullish month for crypto, and with signs of a Bullish Harami forming, we could be gearing up for a potential reversal in the market. The pattern we're watching suggests a possible shift from the recent downtrend. The key here is the smaller second candle closing within the first, signalling the bulls might be stepping back in.
While the start of the month could be choppy, the confirmation of this pattern by the October monthly close could be the push needed for a strong rally ahead.
Bullish Harami: a bullish reversal pattern (which occurs after a downtrend). When it appears in a downtrend, it is a bullish signal.
Recognition Criteria
To identify a general Harami pattern, look for the following criteria:
There is a prevailing trend, whether it’s an uptrend or a downtrend.
The first candle must continue in the direction of the current trend. It will be the same colour as the current trend and have a long body.
The second candle must be contained within the first candle’s body (so it opens and closes within the first candle's body). It can be either colour, and it will have a smaller body. Only the body needs to be contained within the first candle; the wicks are irrelevant.
The next candle confirms this pattern (this is the October monthly close)
If you have any questions, please reach out!
Bitcoin Price Outlook: Is a Bitcoin Rally Imminent?As the financial world closely watches the signals from Jerome Powell, Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, optimism is rising around Bitcoin's potential next rally. Powell's confidence in cooling inflation and the U.S. economy’s strength has caught the attention of Bitcoin enthusiasts, especially as monetary easing could work in favor of the flagship cryptocurrency. But is Bitcoin set for a breakout, or are there hurdles in the way?
Jerome Powell’s Inflation Confidence & Potential Impact on Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC )
At the 66th NABE annual meeting, Jerome Powell reaffirmed the Federal Reserve's ability to bring inflation down to the 2% target. He expressed optimism about the labor market's stability and the U.S. economy's resilience despite a cooling job market. Powell’s statement carries weight, as any dovish shift in Fed policy could significantly influence risk-on assets like Bitcoin.
Powell hinted that any further rate cuts would hinge on incoming inflation data, aligning with the Fed’s cautious approach. Despite the uncertainty of immediate cuts, the notion that inflation is under control sparks hope for Bitcoin, as a lower interest rate environment could drive liquidity into the market, benefiting assets like BTC. Further dovish movements or interest rate cuts could fuel a renewed wave of institutional and retail interest in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin's Bullish Fundamentals & Historic Patterns
Bitcoin’s long-term bullish sentiment remains intact, especially as it heads into the fourth quarter. Historically, Q4 has been one of Bitcoin’s most profitable periods. For instance, CRYPTOCAP:BTC is poised for a positive close for September, and historically, whenever Bitcoin ends September in green, it follows with strong performances in October, November, and December.
More than just seasonality, Bitcoin’s fundamental outlook is supported by the global macro environment. With central banks in major economies like China adopting monetary easing policies, Bitcoin, being a risk-on asset, is expected to benefit from global liquidity. Market analysts from QCP Capital have predicted that such policies will boost Bitcoin, aligning with the narrative of Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and traditional finance’s uncertainties.
Technical Analysis: Bitcoin’s Resistance and Momentum
On the technical side, Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) is currently trading between $61,000 and $65,000, showing a consolidation pattern. This range has become a key pivot point for BTC, with the $63,000 level acting as a significant resistance barrier. At the time of writing, Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) is down 3.15%, continuing its oscillation within this range. Despite this dip, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 56, signaling that Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) still holds bullish momentum and is not yet overbought.
Technical analysts have pointed to $70,000 as the key resistance level Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) needs to break through to confirm the next leg of its bull run. Should CRYPTOCAP:BTC reclaim this level, it could set the stage for new all-time highs, as predicted by analysts like Markus Thielen, who expects Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) to surge past $70,000 by late October.
The next few weeks could be pivotal for CRYPTOCAP:BTC as it heads toward a monthly close. Historically, Bitcoin only posts negative returns in October twice, reinforcing the optimism that Bitcoin could close the year on a high note, pushing to new heights.
Factors to Watch: U.S. Elections & Regulatory Landscape
While the technical and fundamental outlooks remain bullish, Bitcoin’s future will also be influenced by external factors. The upcoming U.S. presidential elections could serve as a major catalyst. Both parties have expressed openness toward Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ), with discussions about potentially making Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) a legal tender in the U.S. This, if it materializes, would create a massive wave of institutional adoption, further cementing Bitcoin’s position as a mainstream asset.
However, regulatory uncertainties continue to hang over the cryptocurrency market. Global regulatory bodies are increasing scrutiny on digital assets, and Bitcoin’s future could hinge on how these regulatory frameworks evolve. Additionally, global adoption rates and market sentiment around decentralized finance (DeFi) will play crucial roles in shaping Bitcoin’s next moves.
Conclusion
While short-term volatility and regulatory hurdles remain, Bitcoin’s long-term outlook is strongly bullish. Jerome Powell’s optimism around cooling inflation and potential rate cuts are supportive macro conditions for CRYPTOCAP:BTC , while historical performance and technical indicators point toward a potential rally in the coming months.
As Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) moves into the final quarter of 2024, eyes will be on key resistance levels, the U.S. elections, and regulatory developments. The path to $70,000 is in sight, and if Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) breaks through, it could trigger a new all-time high by the end of the year.
$BTC is poised to reach $115,000 in the next 9 months! Read WHY!You're aiming for $200k and beyond, but let’s keep it simple and realistic. If BTC hits $115k, altcoins could surge by 20x or even 50x! You just need to play it smart.
Now, let’s break down this simple chart!
Liquidity acts like a magnet! When a big green candle prints, it’s likely that, after a few more candles, the price will move to capture the liquidity from that same candle. Bitcoin has been following this pattern for the past 7 months, inching forward slowly, bit by bit. This is exactly how the whales are accumulating!
The August monthly candle closed at $58,963, and the current candle is set to close in about 4 hours, likely above the August close, forming a beautiful hammer pattern. This is a strong bullish signal!
When you’re unsure about what’s coming or just making wild guesses, remember—this is simply TA based on Price Action. No fancy indicators, just the facts.
Speaking of indicators, the RSI is currently around 63.13, and in every bull run, it eventually climbs up to 92, entering the overbought zone.
So stay strong and stop crying over 10-20% dips in altcoins.
If you can’t handle these corrections, you don’t deserve the 10x gains either.
Keeping it simple, the next 6 months are going to be amazing. Now is the time to position yourself in solid Altcoins and BTC.
After every halving, there's typically a 5 to 6-month consolidation phase, which you can clearly observe on the charts. We’re following the same pattern right now! Things are heating up, but you might not notice if you're only focused on 15-minute candles. Zoom out, and everything will become much clearer for you to understand.
I hope you get some light from my charts, If you do please hit that like button and share this chart with your crypto friends.
Thank you
#PEACE
Bitcoin & some Sunday thoughtsAt this moment, I’m long Bitcoin, just like many others out there who are hoping for the next all-time high.
The dream of Bitcoin breaking its historical peak is alive, but there’s this lingering question I can’t ignore: what if it doesn’t happen?
It’s worth considering a scenario that no one really talks about — what if Bitcoin doesn't break out to new highs and instead stays in a range between $50k and $70k for the next few years?
We've seen this play out before in other markets. Take gold, for example, between 2020 and 2024. After its big run-up, it stayed in a range, teasing breakouts but taking years before finally breaking through its previous all-time high.
What If Bitcoin Enters a Prolonged Range?
The idea that Bitcoin might simply range trade between key levels for a long period is not that far-fetched. The fact that we now have Bitcoin ETFs isn't necessarily a bullish argument. After all, ETFs exist for gold too, and that didn’t prevent gold from ranging for several years.
Similarly, the argument that institutional investors are buying Bitcoin also isn’t a guarantee of a breakout. Big players have been accumulating gold for years, and yet, the price didn't explode immediately. Instead, it moved in a sideways range, frustrating long term bulls, until it was ready for a sustained move.
The Danger of Fake Breakouts
Bitcoin is notorious for its spike-like moves that give traders hope of a breakout, only to reverse in the opposite direction shortly after. It’s entirely possible that in the coming months or years, we could see multiple fake breakouts to the upside, triggering excitement that "this is it," only for Bitcoin to quickly retrace, leaving traders caught off-guard.
The same thing could happen with downward spikes that make people think the bull market is over, only for Bitcoin to bounce back into its range.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s potential to enter a prolonged range, despite the ETF and institutional buying, is a real possibility. The key takeaway is that traders and investors should be prepared for both scenarios: the explosive breakout everyone hopes for, but also the chance that Bitcoin could just as easily trade sideways for years, keeping everyone guessing.
As always, the market will do what it wants, and our job as traders is to remain adaptable, keep emotions in check, and make the best decisions based on what we see, not just what we hope for.
BTC | LTF and HTF TargetsIf this zone cannot hold the price, it means that we have moved from the quick no retest rise phase to the deep retest phase.
The deep retest phase is the stage where traders who cannot catch the price during the rapid rise try long from everywhere to compensate for this.
If I try my luck here once and stopped out, I will wait for the real buyer and cheap zone below.
DXY doing Cycle Wave 2, now inside the Wave C about to break SupHello everyone,
In this scenario the DXY has finished the Wave Cycle Wave 1, with 5 Waves (Ending in September 2022), and now it is doing the Wave 2.
Inside the Wave 2, we encounter ourselves inside the Wave C already.
The Wave C is about to break the 100 support area, and targeting at least 92 target.
The 92 target is the minimum move that it needs to perform, since it will be the same lenght as the Wave A.
Knowing this, we expect to see other Assets rise as the Dólar falls in the upcoming months
Bitcoin is above main Support
After breaking the resistance level of $65,000, Bitcoin is currently trading above this level, which has now become an important support level. As seen in the chart, Bitcoin is in a mid-term ascending channel, and upon hitting the resistance level of $66,400, it faced a rejection and broke below the midline of the ascending channel.
We expect Bitcoin to test the support range between $64,500 and $65,000 before starting a new upward movement.
If it rejects from this level and buying pressure increases, we will likely see a retest of the resistance range between $64,500 and $67,000.
Conversely, if the support level is lost, we could witness increased selling pressure, leading to a move towards the bottom of the ascending channel. If the bottom of the channel is broken, a candlestick shadow towards $63,700 may form.
With the opening of global banks, we expect to see the beginning of volatility in Bitcoin.
#BTC/USDT Weekend Update!#BTCUSDT: Not much is happening—just sideways price action on low volume due to the weekend. Expecting more volatility on Monday after the weekly close.
For now, OB remains untested so be ready if that gets tested, possibly $63k-$64.3k.
It will give us some good entries for scalp and swing in altcoins.
With both the monthly and weekly closes approaching, these will be crucial. We’ll need a few confirmations for the anticipated "UPtober." I’ll be sharing more details on Monday.
Alts?
Alts might be choppy for now, but I expect strong rallies next month.
Remember, dips are for buying!
Have a great weekend folks!
Do hit the like button if you like it and share your views in the comment section.
Thank you
#PEACE
Bitcoin (btcusdt) → Two Key Scenarios After Wedge Breakouthello guys.
Bitcoin has broken out of a descending wedge, signaling potential bullish momentum. The price is hovering near the $66,500-$67,000 resistance, with two possible scenarios:
Scenario 1: Immediate Breakout
Target: $75,000-$76,000
Path: A clean break above $67,000 could trigger a strong rally toward the $75,000-$76,000 zone, continuing the bullish momentum from the wedge breakout.
Scenario 2: Pullback Before Rally
Target: $58,000 (correction) → $75,000 (rebound)
Path: If Bitcoin fails to break $67,000, a pullback to $58,000 is likely. This could act as a support base, after which a rebound might drive the price back toward the $75,000 target.
Both scenarios are bullish, with the primary difference being whether Bitcoin rallies immediately or after a corrective dip.
___________________________
✓✓✓ Always do your research.
❒❒❒ If you have any questions, you can write them in the comments below, and I will answer them.
❤︎ ❤︎ ❤︎And please don't forget to support this idea with your likes and comment
Bitcoin's Final Push: Eyeing $67,700 Before Potential ReversalAlright everyone, let's dive into the chart. Bitcoin has pushed up and reached a resistance level at $66,225.00. Currently, it appears overextended, suggesting a potential reversal is on the horizon. However, I believe Bitcoin might have one more push up to the strong resistance level at $67,700.00. From that point, we could see a pullback, but for now, the charts indicate that BTC has one final small push left. Let's watch closely and see if it reaches that $67,700.00 resistance. And remember, if it breaks through that last resistance level, get ready for Lambo!
Bitcoin Approaching Critical Resistance: Will It Break 66,200?We're now using the 4-hour chart. Bitcoin had a strong rally yesterday, approaching resistance at 66,100. It almost reached that level before pulling back slightly, falling just short. For Bitcoin to show bullish momentum, it must break through this resistance. My 50 EMA is still green, indicating that Bitcoin remains bullish. Once it turns white, it signals a downward move. As for the MACD, it recently touched 300, which suggests Bitcoin could decline in the next few days. However, the chart still indicates that Bitcoin may have another leg up. I believe $66,200ish could be the final push for Bitcoin, but if it breaks through that resistance, we could see it move even higher. Stay tuned for updates! If you enjoy this content, please hit the like button.
Bitcoin 20k
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Bitcoin could finally make a moveBitcoin has been trading in a very tight range for the past week, showing little volatility and movement. This period of consolidation typically suggests that the market is indecisive, with neither bulls nor bears managing to take control. However, today there seems to be a bit more momentum, and it looks like Bitcoin might be preparing to break out of this range, potentially breaching the upper boundary.
If the price manages to break through this resistance, we could see an acceleration towards higher levels, with a potential target around 68k.
BTC Short Term Bullish ViewLooks like BTC is heading to break the 64000 zone once again, and retest the recent highs.
I've marked the resistance levels where the price might slow down or struggle to break.
BTC is respecting the channel and in my opinion it might retest the high of the channel and try to break 65000 if we successfully break 64500 levels.
Let me know what you all think. I'd be happy to hear your analysis on it.
Good luck!
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) 1-hour price action + trade planTechnical analysis for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) 1-hour price action with multiple indicators and a descending triangle pattern by Blaž Fabjan
Chart Patterns
Descending Triangle: This is a classic pattern that typically suggests consolidation, and in many cases, a breakout (especially when formed in an uptrend). The triangle seems to be nearing the apex, indicating that a breakout could happen soon.
Breakout potential: Since it's forming within an overall uptrend, the triangle suggests the possibility of a continuation of the uptrend after the consolidation.
Indicators
VMC Cipher B: The VMC Cipher B shows wave-like movements indicating market momentum and divergences. It looks like the waves are approaching a positive curve, indicating a potential bullish movement if confirmed by momentum.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is hovering around 50.49, which shows a neutral trend at the moment. No overbought or oversold conditions are present, leaving room for upward or downward movement depending on the breakout direction.
Stochastic (14, 1, 3): The stochastic shows a level of 43.32 (blue) vs 56.91 (orange), indicating a slight bearish momentum, but it could reverse if price continues consolidating and breaks upwards.
HMA+ Histogram: The histogram appears to show bearish pressure with negative values such as -55.9, though it looks like it may start to shift upwards if there's enough buying momentum.
Volume:
The volume appears lower during consolidation, which is typical before a significant move. Watch for an increase in volume as the price approaches the end of the triangle.
Support and Resistance:
Support: Around 63,800 USDT (marked by the bottom of the triangle).
Resistance: Immediate resistance appears at around 64,200 USDT, the upper trendline of the descending triangle.
Trading Plan:
Breakout Strategy:
Bullish scenario: If BTC breaks the triangle to the upside, enter a long position after confirmation (e.g., after the price breaks above 64,200 USDT with volume). Place a stop-loss slightly below the triangle's bottom at around 63,500 USDT.
Target price: A potential upward target could be around 67,000 USDT (previous high) based on the size of the triangle.
Bearish scenario: If the price breaks below the triangle’s bottom (around 63,800 USDT) with volume, a short position can be considered. In this case, place a stop-loss just above the upper trendline of the triangle (around 64,500 USDT).
Target price: A downside target would be around 62,000 USDT, depending on how strong the downward momentum is.
Risk Management:
Set a risk/reward ratio of at least 1:2, considering the uncertainty of the consolidation period.
Adjust your position size to risk no more than 1-2% of your capital on the trade.
In summary, BTC is consolidating in a descending triangle within an uptrend, and a breakout in either direction is likely. Watch for volume and confirmation before taking a position, and stick to a disciplined risk management plan.
Market Reacts to FED Rate Cut: What’s Next for Bitcoin?We gave the market a few days to react, and last week turned out strong. The FED's rate cut sparked a solid response. Bitcoin has been moving sideways for the past few days, but it just got a boost, forming a double top. This might indicate a potential reversal. For confirmation, we need the current candle to close below the yellow line; if it closes above, we could see further upward momentum. At the moment, things are looking bearish, and the MACD is supporting that view. Let's see how it unfolds. Don’t forget to like, and feel free to leave any questions in the comments below!
Bitcoin - This Is The Bullish Breakout!Bitcoin ( BITSTAMP:BTCUSD ) still has a high chance of a breakout:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Bitcoin is clearly following the behaviour of the previous cycles and there is actually no reason to be bearish at the moment. The current consolidation is rather a sign of strength and a bullish breakout is definitely more likely than a bearish rejection. Just closely monitor price action.
Levels to watch: $65.000, $32.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
UsdJpy moving down on retracement.Looking for Impulse Down.
UsdJpy break out TL and will start to move down soon on retracement. Make sure you have your own rules on RR and follow them. This is just a trading idea to help you gain better knowledge. If you have any question ask me in comments.
Learn & Earn!
Wave Trader Pro
technical analysis and trading plan for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT)Technical analysis and trading plan for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) by Blaž Fabjan
Bullish Pennant Formation:
The chart shows a bullish pennant pattern, which typically indicates a continuation of the prior upward trend. This suggests that once the consolidation within the pennant breaks to the upside, there could be a further rally.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Support Level: Around $61,758.48, which is holding the price within the consolidation.
Resistance Level: The next significant resistance is around $64,591.15.
If the price breaks the resistance of the pennant, it could target higher levels, potentially leading toward $68,556.87 as a bullish target.
Volume:
There’s a moderate amount of volume, but a volume breakout would be needed to confirm the movement in either direction.
Indicators:
VMC Cipher B Divergences is showing some green dots indicating bullish divergence, which further supports the potential for an upward breakout.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI value is around 53.94, suggesting that the market is in a neutral zone. It's neither overbought nor oversold, giving room for movement in either direction.
Stochastic Oscillator: Around 36.45, slightly on the lower end, signaling that Bitcoin might be in an oversold position on the short-term, indicating a potential upward reversal.
Trendline Projection:
The image also indicates an upward price projection beyond $67,000 if the pennant breaks to the upside, aligning with the bullish sentiment.
Trading Plan:
Buy Scenario (Bullish Breakout):
Entry Point: Consider entering a long position if Bitcoin breaks above the upper trendline of the pennant and surpasses the $64,000 resistance level with strong volume confirmation.
Take Profit Levels:
First target: $64,591.15 (immediate resistance).
Second target: $68,000.
Final target: $68,556.87 (upper resistance).
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss just below the $61,758.48 support level or just below the lower trendline of the pennant.
Sell Scenario (Bearish Breakdown):
Entry Point: If Bitcoin breaks below the lower trendline of the pennant and the $61,758.48 support level, it might indicate a bearish reversal. Consider entering a short position.
Take Profit Levels: Look for a price drop toward $60,301.68 or lower.
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss just above the pennant resistance level around $63,000 to limit risk.
Conservative Strategy:
Wait for a clear breakout from the pennant either way before entering any trade.
Watch for confirmation through volume increase, as this would validate the direction of the breakout.
Final Notes:
The chart leans toward a bullish continuation, but confirmation from volume and a breakout from the pennant are key before making any trades. Always manage risk carefully by setting stop losses and taking partial profits along the way.
I hope this information assists you in making more informed decisions during your trading activities. Enjoy! Blaž Fabjan
Bitcoin BTC price trading plan to the end of 2024Last week was full of macroeconomic events, we write about it at previous idea
The cryptocurrency market took them positively and grew on rumors.
There is a legendary quote: “Buy on rumors, sell on facts.”
Therefore, we do not rule out that this week OKX:BTCUSDT and the crypto market in general may plunge into correction.
Still, we need BTC.D - 57.7% and USDT.D - 5.50% to fall significantly lower for the market to really “come to life”
Fear and Greed Index (neutral) - 50
As long as CRYPTOCAP:BTC price is above $57,000 , it is globally in an upward trend and at the same time in a protracted consolidation since May 2024.
Perhaps a confident exit from this consolidation will take place in November, after the US elections on 05.11 and the next Fed rate cut on 07.11
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