Wen Sell BTC ? | Bitcoin Price Action Scenarios for 2025Alexa play the Mingle Game Song “Round and Round”
you may watch Squid Game2 and enjoy it but 2025 is exactly the same for crypto market!
at some point whales will stop the song and the butchery begins
so while you enjoying Moons day you must get ready for Dooms day
2024 was a pivotal year for crypto, setting the stage for what many are calling the "Golden Age of Crypto." While this new era may be upon us, we anticipate that crypto prices will likely peak within the next 12 months, following an exciting rally. However, after reaching this peak, another significant price decline seems inevitable though likely less severe than previous cycles, especially for major cryptocurrencies.
If you're unfamiliar with crypto's history, it tends to move in 4year cycles:
3 years of bullish momentum followed by 1 year of a bearish downturn.
This pattern has been remarkably consistent so far.
The chart you see illustrates this trend, with green lines marking Bitcoin's cycle peaks and red lines indicating the lows. Interestingly, the duration between peaks and troughs has been almost identical across the last three cycles. The time between consecutive peaks is also fairly consistent, though we only have two complete cycles of data to analyze.
Based on historical averages, we could expect a peak around October 2025 and a bottom around November 2026. Will it play out exactly like this? Probably not! maybe YES!! markets rarely align so neatly. Plus, these cycles won't last forever; this could very well be the final one.
Still, I believe the crypto market will likely top out sometime in 2025 or early 2026, regardless of the bullish catalysts (Trump, crypto ETFs, strategic Bitcoin reserves)
In this idea, we gonna talk about :
- Potential scenarios for how this cycle might unfold in 2025
- Expected pullbacks during the year
- Sell strategy for this cycle
The key takeaway is to stay flexible and not fixate on any specific prediction. Understand the possibilities and prepare for unexpected pullbacks or market tops. Knowledge is power, and this idea aims to empower you in what could be one of the most critical years ever for crypto investors.
Short Term Expectations & Probabilities
Q1 2025: “Death & Taxes”
there is a chance for market pullback in early January
This outlook is partly based on global liquidity trends and partly on historical performance. For instance, in the 2016-17 bull market, following Trump’s November 2016 victory, Bitcoin saw a December rally before experiencing a steep 38% correction starting January 4th.
Let’s Revisit the Last Cycle: Bitcoin Price Action in 2020-21
look at how Bitcoin performed during the 2020-21 bull market.
In this cycle, Biden won the election, and crypto markets surged through November and December. However, a significant pullback of 32% began on January 7th—eerily similar to the pattern from the previous cycle.
The Role of Seasonality in Markets
Markets, at their core, are driven by human behavior. Even with bots and AI handling many trades, these systems operate under human instruction and decision-making.
Seasonality often influences market trends, particularly at the start of the year, when pullbacks are common. One key reason? Profit taking for tax efficiency.
January Pullbacks
In both the 2016 and 2020 cycles, crypto investors had a great year, making January an ideal time to lock in profits. Why not sell in December instead?
Selling on December 31st means paying taxes on capital gains by March of the following year in the US By waiting until January 1st, investors effectively defer their tax payments to the next year, giving them an additional 12 months to reinvest their gains before taxes are due.
In the crypto space dominated by individual investors with significant gains this tax strategy often amplifies January pullbacks.
March Pullbacks
Historical data also shows noticeable pullbacks in March:
- March 8, 2017
- March 14, 2021
Why? This is when many investors sell to pay their tax bills in the U.S. Some may have sold earlier (e.g., in January) and are now liquidating assets to pay their "loan" from the government. Others may simply need to cash out to meet tax obligations.
Even if not all investors are selling for taxes, the narrative surrounding tax-driven March pullbacks tends to perpetuate itself, effectively "meming" these declines into reality.
While pullbacks can occur at any time, history suggests that January and March are more likely to see declines for these reasons.
May Pullbacks: “Sell in May and Go Away”
Looking at broader market trends, it’s worth noting that U.S. stock indexes have historically performed better between November and April compared to May through October. This pattern has held true since the 1970s and often applies to crypto as well.
Bitcoin’s Seasonal Struggles: Summer Slump
When examining Bitcoin’s average monthly performance since 2010, its four worst-performing months are consistently June, July, August, and September. For a clearer picture, take a look at Bitcoin’s price chart from 2020 to today. Ouch!
This aligns with the old investment adage: Sell in May and go away. Judging by Bitcoin’s historical performance, it’s hard to argue with the results.
Why Does This Happen?
The theory behind this trend may sound a bit absurd, but it’s worth exploring.
After May, summer rolls around, and the ultra-wealthy—the bankers, fund managers, and other key players managing the world’s capital tend to take vacations.
In the U.S., they head to the Hamptons. In the U.K., it’s Spain, Italy, or Greece. With these power players lounging on their beachfront properties, away from their desks and screens, market activity slows down.
Fewer trades mean reduced liquidity, effectively putting the markets on pause. It’s as if the financial elite collectively agree to press “pause” in May and resume the game in October.
Even in Bullish Markets!
This seasonal trend can impact markets even during strong bull runs. For example, in 2017, Bitcoin soared from under $1,000 in January to $20,000 by December. However, a pullback started on May 25th.
Although prices rallied briefly in August, by mid-September Bitcoin had returned to its May peak price. It wasn’t until October that things went parabolic, leading to an explosive 10x move by year’s end. This historical pattern emphasizes the importance of staying cautious during the summer months. While markets may see some rallies, the overall trend has been consistently weak during this period.
The 2021 Cycle: Front Running the Summer Slump
A similar pattern played out in 2021, though it appeared that some investors tried to front-run the summer dip. Bitcoin’s price began declining on April 17, earlier than usual. After a brief rally, mid-May saw a dramatic 50% drop. While prices recovered somewhat over the summer, the real momentum didn’t kick in until October. Again, this doesn’t guarantee how the first half of 2025 will unfold, but it’s worth considering these historical trends as possibilities.
H2 2025: “History Doesn’t Repeat, But It Often Rhymes
When looking at the second half of the year, historical patterns don’t offer as much detail except for one key insight: Q4 tends to be a standout quarter for crypto during the “number go up” years of the cycle.
The phrase “sell in May and go away” could easily extend to “until October” for crypto investors, as this strategy has historically performed well. In past cycles, the final quarter of the 4-year cycle (which 2025 would be if the pattern holds) has often marked the peak. This is typically followed by a sharp downturn:
- 2013: Top in November
- 2017: Top in December
- 2021: Top in November
If history is any guide, 2025 could follow a similar trajectory, with Q4 delivering explosive price action potentially leading to a cycle top and a subsequent correction.
Expert Predictions for Bitcoin in 2025
The founder of Pantera, whose Bitcoin fund boasts a staggering 130,000% return, forecasts that August 2025 will mark the peak of this cycle. He aligns with the broader sentiment that 2025 will be a bull market, followed by a downturn in 2026. He also believes it’s entirely plausible for Bitcoin’s price to increase tenfold over the next 5–10 years
Meanwhile, James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, predicts Bitcoin’s price will range between $80,000 and $150,000 in 2025. He notes that the lower end of the range may reflect market corrections if Trump fails to deliver on pro crypto policies, while the upper target could be supported by a favorable U.S. regulatory environment
Looking beyond 2025, Butterfill envisions Bitcoin’s market value rising from its current 10% of the gold market to 25%, potentially driving the price to $250,000. However, he cautions that reaching this milestone within 2025 may prove super challenging.
If you dig up my old BTC charts, you’ll see I was screaming bullish while everyone else was crying in the corner at $ 16k. But now? BTC doesn’t even phase me anymore.
2025 is Altcoin time! It’s gem szn, and I’m here for the treasure hunt
