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Bitcoin Might Be Forming a Local Top – Watch the Trendline!!After completing a clear 5-wave impulsive move, Bitcoin appears to be losing bullish momentum. The price is testing the main ascending trendline, and a breakdown could lead to a deeper correction. The wave count suggests that the 5th wave may already be completed, potentially marking a local top. The key support zone to watch is around $97,740 – a clean break below this level could trigger further downside pressure. 📉 Structure: 5-wave impulsive move 🟦 Support zone: ~$97,740 🔵 Trendline: Currently under test 📌 Bias: Bearish below trendline 📅 Forecast Date: May 18, 2025 ⏳ Timeframe: 4H This is not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
Short
by CakirInsights
BCH/USDT Bullish Heist: Crack the Vault & Grab the Loot!🔥 **BCH/USDT Bullish Heist Plan** 🔥 Hey Profit Pirates & Chart Chasers! 🤑 Ready to pull off a slick move on the Bitcoin Cash vs. Tether (BCH/USDT) crypto market? 📈 This *Thief Trading Style* blends sharp technicals with market vibes to hunt a bullish breakout. Stick to this plan, ride the surge, and slip out before the Red Zone danger hits. Let’s stack those gains as a crew! 💪🎯 📊 Heist Blueprint: BCH/USDT - Market: BCH/USDT (Crypto) 🌐 - Bias: Bullish Breakout 🌟 - Timeframe: 1D (Swing Trade) ⏰ Entry Points 📈 - **Breakout Entry (Entry 1)**: "Crack the vault! Spot the MA breakout at 430.0 and jump in—bullish riches are calling!" *Pro Move*: Set buy stop orders above the Moving Average or buy limit orders at the latest 15/30-min swing low/high for pullback entries. 📣 Add a chart alert to snag the breakout! - **Pullback Entry (Entry 2)**: "The job’s on! Wait for the MA pullback in the Market Makers Trap/Heist Zone at 350.0, then strike—guts win big!" 📍 *Trader Hack*: Set a TradingView alert for the 430.0 breakout to stay one step ahead! 🔔 Stop Loss 🛑 - **Breakout Traders**: Once the breakout confirms, place Stop Loss below the recent 1D swing low at (Entry 1) 380.0 & (Entry 2) 310.0 to shield against reversals. ⚠️ - **Pullback Traders**: Customize Stop Loss to your risk tolerance (e.g., 1-2% of account). Tweak based on lot size and multiple orders. 📏 - **Risk Warning**: This heist’s high-octane! Keep position sizing tight to protect your stash. 🔥 Target 🎯 - Aim for 500.0, close to the Red Zone (overbought territory ripe for consolidation or reversal). 🏴‍☠️ - **Exit Play**: Cash out early if bearish clues (e.g., high volume, reversal candles) pop up near 500.0. 💸 Scalpers 👀 - Focus on Long-side scalps with tight trailing stops. Team up with swing traders for the full heist or grab quick profits if your funds allow. 💰 📡 Why This Trade’s Got Juice (May 17, 2025) BCH/USDT is primed for action with a neutral trend and bullish sparks, fueled by: - **Technicals**: A breakout above the 50-day MA (not 108000, correcting to ~430.0), paired with higher lows on the 1D chart, screams momentum. 📊 - **Sentiment Analysis (May 17, 2025)**: Social media buzz on platforms like X shows 68% positive sentiment for BCH, with traders hyping altcoin season. Fear & Greed Index at 72 (Greed), signaling bullish vibes but caution near overbought levels. 😎 - **Fundamentals**: The latest COT report (May 16, 2025) from CFTC shows institutional long positions in crypto futures up 12% WoW, hinting at big-player confidence. 📰 - **Seasonal Edge**: Q2 historically favors Bitcoin and altcoins, aligning with our setup. 📅 - **Market Flow**: USD softness (DXY down 0.8% this week) and altcoin strength boost BCH’s upside. 🌎 ⚠️ Risk Management: Lock Your Loot - **News Alert**: Dodge new trades during high-impact events (e.g., CPI, FOMC) to sidestep volatility traps. 🗞️ - **Trailing Stops**: Activate trailing Stop Loss as price nears 500.0 to secure profits. 🔒 - **Position Sizing**: Cap risk at 1-2% per trade for a smooth heist. 🚨 💥 Ignite the Heist! 💥 Join the *Thief Trading Style* squad—like, comment, and follow for more electrifying trade setups! 🚀 Your support powers our market raids, paving the way for precise wins. Let’s dominate BCH/USDT together! 🤝🏆🎉 **Stay Locked In**: Another heist plan’s brewing. Keep your charts ready, traders! 🐱‍👤😎 --- 🔥 **Real-Time Data (May 17, 2025, UTC+1)** 🔥 - **BCH/USDT Price**: ~425.0 (based on aggregated exchange data). - **COT Report (May 16, 2025)**: Institutional long positions in crypto futures up 12% WoW, per CFTC. - **Sentiment**: 68% positive, Fear & Greed Index at 72 (Greed). - **USD Index (DXY)**: Down 0.8% WoW, supporting altcoin strength.
Long
by Thief_Trader
BTC to between 207k-315k come octoberThis is solely a prediction for the coming cycle top. I am looking for a third trend touch that will occur between 3.618 and 5.618 of the previous cycle high to swing low. If the time frame cycle to cycle lines up at 47 monthly bars, cycle top will occur in third quarter, likely in october. Summer time may be slow, but I think buying pressure will ramp up in the fall. This will lead to the eventual blowoff top that btc goes through each cycle. Blow off target = 207k-315k This is not financial advice, this is just a prediction I would like to publish to look back on. Let me know what you think is going to happen by years end in the comments!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BallsOfSteel32
Bitwise Bitcoin ETF | BITB | Long at $46.25It definitely should get everyone's attention when a US Senator (David McCormick) is willing to dish out up to $600,000 in a Bitcoin ETF ( AMEX:BITB ): Feb. 27: Bought $50,000 to $100,000 Feb. 28: Bought $15,000 to $50,000 March 3: Bought $50,000 to $100,000 March 5: Bought $15,000 to $50,000 March 10: Bought $50,000 to $100,000 March 11: Bought $15,000 to $50,000 March 13: Bought $15,000 to $50,000 March 20: Bought $50,000 to $100,000 Something may be brewing this year with the "U.S. crypto reserve" and I'll throw down a couple grand at $46.25 with a self-proclaimed wild prediction into 2026: Bitcoin to $120,000. Bitwise ETF Targets: $50.00 $55.00 $60.00 $65.00
AMEX:BITBLong
by WorthlessViews
BNB/USD Bullish Heist: Crack the Vault & Grab the Loot!🤑 BNB/USD Profit Chase 🤑 Chart explorers and wealth hunters! 🚀 Ready to dive into the Binance Coin vs. Dollar (BNB/USD) crypto market? 📊 This Rogue Trade Strategy mixes sharp technicals with market energy to pursue a bullish wave. Follow this guide, ride the momentum, and exit before the danger zone hits. Let’s stack those wins together! 💸🎯 📈 Trade Plan: BNB/USD Market: BNB/USD (Crypto) 🌍 Outlook: Bullish Surge 🌠 Timeframe: 4h (Swing Trade) ⏳ Entry Zones 📡 Surge Entry (Entry 1): "Crack the code! Spot the MA breakout at 690.0 and jump in—bullish gains are calling!" Smart Move: Set buy stop orders above the Moving Average or buy limit orders at the latest 15/30-min swing low/high for pullback entries. 📢 Add a chart alert to catch the breakout! Retreat Entry (Entry 2): "The moment’s here! Wait for the MA pullback in the Market Makers’ Ambush Zone at 630.0, then strike—bold moves win big!" 📍 Pro Tip: Set a TradingView alert for the 690.0 breakout to stay ahead! 🔔 Stop Loss 🚨 Surge Traders: After breakout confirmation, place Stop Loss below the recent 4H swing low at (Entry 1) 660.0 & (Entry 2) 600.0 to shield against reversals. ⚡ Retreat Traders: Adjust Stop Loss to your risk level (e.g., 1-2% of account). Tweak based on lot size and multiple entries. 📏 Risk Note: This trade’s high-octane! Keep position sizes tight to safeguard your funds. 🔥 Profit Target 🎯 Target 735.0, near the Overbought Zone (ripe for consolidation or reversal). 🏁 Exit Play: Cash out early if bearish signals (e.g., high volume, reversal patterns) appear near 735.0. 💵 Scalpers 🔍 Focus on quick Long-side scalps with tight trailing stops. Team up with swing traders for the full plan or grab fast profits if your capital allows. 💰 📡 Why This Trade Shines (May 18, 2025) BNB/USD is buzzing with opportunity, fueled by: Technicals: A breakout above the ATR Line (~690.0), paired with higher lows on the 1D chart, signals strong momentum. 📈 Sentiment (May 17, 2025): Social media buzz on platforms like Reddit shows 70% positive sentiment for BNB, with traders hyping altcoin momentum. Fear & Greed Index at 74 (Greed), urging caution near overbought levels. 😎 Fundamentals: CFTC’s COT report (May 16, 2025) reports a 14% WoW increase in institutional long positions in crypto futures, showing big-player confidence. 🗳️ Seasonal Edge: Q2 historically lifts Bitcoin and altcoins, supporting our setup. 📆 Market Flow: USD weakness (DXY down 0.9% this week) and altcoin strength boost BNB’s upside. 🌐 ⚠️ Risk Control: Protect Your Gains News Alert: Skip new trades during major events (e.g., CPI, FOMC) to avoid volatility traps. 📰 Trailing Stops: Activate trailing Stop Loss as price nears 700.0 to secure profits. 🔐 Position Sizing: Cap risk at 1-2% per trade for a smooth ride. 🚦 💥 Kick Off the Chase! 💥 Join the Rogue Trade Strategy squad—like, comment, and follow for more exciting trade setups! 🚀 Your support drives our market missions, paving the way for precise wins. Let’s dominate BNB/USD together! 🤝🏅🎉 Stay Ready: Another trade plan’s coming. Keep your charts locked, traders! 🐱‍💻😉 🔔 Real-Time Data (May 18, 2025, UTC+1) BNB/USD Price: ~685.0 (based on aggregated exchange data). COT Report (May 16, 2025): Institutional long positions in crypto futures up 14% WoW, per CFTC. Sentiment: 70% positive, Fear & Greed Index at 74 (Greed). USD Index (DXY): Down 0.9% WoW, supporting altcoin strength. Disclaimer: Grok is not a financial adviser; please consult one. Don't share information that can identify you.
BINANCE:BNBUSDLong
by Thief_Trader
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 16, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During this week's trading session, Bitcoin has remained tightly bound within our Mean Resistance level of 104000 and is positioned to retest the lower target identified as Mean Support at 99300. There exists a possibility of a further decline toward an additional Mean Support target at 94000. Nonetheless, it is crucial to recognize the potential for upward momentum from the current level, which may lead to a challenge of the Key Resistance at 106100. This could culminate in a retest of the previously established Inner Coin Rally at $108,000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Comprehensive BITCOIN Analysis for the next 7 days - DAILY chart First Off - Sorry for all the lines on the chart but EVERY one is very relevant to what is happening right now. The Dashed Blue Horizontal line is the current ATH line. possible Resistance. The 2.618 Fib extension has not yet been tested as support. This could happen still, at any point till end of month and is around the 98K usd zone. PA has Ranged through the Local rising line of support, as if it no longer existed, which was a little surprising given the strength that PA has still. There maybe some uncertainty in the air. PA is above the neckline of the Cup pattern it printed and, again, it would not be unusual to see PA come back down to test this Neckline as support, which is on that 2.618 Fib extension. The Bold Yellow line is Long Term Support line since 2015, showing that Bitcoin PA is in the Lower side of a Long Term ascending channel, with plenty of room to rise, PA has a lot of inert strength right now, so, we may not see this retest happen. We just have to wait. BUT you can see that Rising dashed line, the extension of the Cup pattern. PA may range across into this and bump into it next week. If it acts as support again, PA will then be pushed into a tight Squeeze against the other rising line of support, with an Apex on the current ATH line. PA ALWAYS REACTS BEFORE THE APEX All that points towards some Volatile times next week if PA remains in this area. The other descending line there is a 618 Fib Circle. You can see that 98% of the Time, PA is effected by these. All this shows us 4 points of resistance, in the same Zone, All Next week and PA will Either Shoot through it with a Big push, Or we may see PA Drop back down. The Big question being, how Far ? We do not want to loose the 2.618 Fib ext at 98K But what else can we look at. ? The RSI DAILY This is still up high in the near Over Bought zone. It can range up here for extended periods but this is something we should be aware of as the possibility of a drop does exist. On the weekly, RSI has room to move higher & the 4 hour is in neutral zone, again with ability to push higher. The MACD DAILY This is once again curling over and about to test the red signal line as support. On a 4 hour chart, the MACD is down on Neutral line, giving it strength to push higher and if that continues, we will see the yellow MACD line bounce off the Red signal line on the Daily chart. Once again, Look at the Histogram and the similarity to the area that the Arrow is pointing at. We could repeat this but on a larger scale. We have to wait and see if this happens. But also note how there was a Visit into a red Histogram ( for 4 days ) before the bigger push and I remind you about what has been said above. So, what else can we look at that may offer some ideas ? The Chart below is the 4 main Crypto Dominance charts by market Cap - 4 hour BTC.D - ETH.D OTHERS.D - USDT.D ( OTHERS = Top 125 Coins MINUS Top 10 by Market Cap) Mid to Low cap We have recently seen a Drop in Bitcoin dominance, giving the ALTS some time to push higher. This is seen with the BTC.D dropping and the ETH.D and OTHERS.D rising Also note how USDT.D Dropped, showing that stable coins were being exchanged for Crypto, And as we see now, we have the possibility of BTC.D being rejected by its 50 SMA ( Red) ETH.D is above its 50 SMA, showing it had a good push and may get support if PA drops OTHERS.D has already fallen below its 50 SMA, showing a brutal sell off, rapid profit taking. That is the world of ALTS. In the last 48 hours, we saw a return for Bitcoin as it rose from a shallow Low in its Range. This was enough to cause a sell off of the ALT coins as we see in the Drop in Others.D ETH however, remains in a range with obvious intention to continue higher if the market allows. Lastly, we can compare Bitcoin to the other Markets Bitcoin - CFD GOLD DXY - S&P500 Bitcoin has performed well. It has reclaimed some position on Gold recently while it climbed alongside the S&P We can also see how BTC climbed while DXY dropped. This highlights some Flaws in using the BTC USD pair to judge the success of BTC but this is explaned better in another post. But in short, If the $ looses Value and your BTC USD pair appears to climb, theg ain is lost as the $ is worth less. Use BTC XAUT pairs. Bitcoin Gold Pair - Historically, GOLD looses little Value by comparison. So when Bitcoin gains against Gold..It is WIN WIN So, in conclusion, we see Bitcoin under some pressure to avoid Lower or sharper Drop in the short tern. The Lower Timeframes show us that BTC has the ability for a Continued Range but with caution. We see ETH ( and larger Alts ) intent on remain in the game now they have had a small glimpse of Gains And we see that Mid and Lower Cap Alts are mostly just money makers providing you play the game right. And that game may have some more time if Bitcoin Stumbles in the next 7 days. And that possibility does exist. Today is crucial in many ways and will set the tone for the following week. There is Financial Data being released by the USA today and if unfavourable, we may see some sharp moves. And ,Longer Term VERY BULLISH - I HOLD AND CONTINUE TO BUY WHEN I CAN ON SPOT ORDERS I hope this helps and I am grateful for comments
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
BTC Strength Alert: Key Levels, Fibonacci & VolatilityBitcoin (BTCUSD) Strength Alert: Key Levels, Fibonacci & Volatility Point to Entry Opportunities Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Technical Analysis: Navigating Strength and Volatility Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to capture the attention of the global financial markets, demonstrating notable resilience and underlying strength. The current market structure suggests a period where bulls are actively defending key price thresholds, creating a fascinating technical landscape. This analysis will provide an in-depth examination of BTCUSD, focusing on its price action relative to significant psychological levels, the supportive role of Fibonacci retracements, characteristic volatility patterns, and strategic entry considerations based on bullish candlestick formations. 1. Introduction to Bitcoin and the BTCUSD Pair Bitcoin, introduced in 2009, stands as the progenitor of cryptocurrencies, operating on a decentralized peer-to-peer network secured by cryptographic principles and recorded on a public distributed ledger known as the blockchain. It was designed as a digital alternative to traditional fiat currencies, free from central bank control. The BTCUSD pair represents the exchange rate between Bitcoin and the United States Dollar, making it one of the most liquid and heavily traded instruments in the digital asset space. Its price movements are a barometer for the broader cryptocurrency market sentiment and are influenced by a myriad of factors including adoption trends, regulatory news, macroeconomic developments, and technological advancements within the Bitcoin network itself. Understanding the technical dynamics of BTCUSD is crucial for traders, investors, and market analysts seeking to navigate its often-turbulent price swings. 2. Current Market Sentiment and Price Action: Holding Above Key Psychological Levels A significant observation in the current BTCUSD market is its ability to maintain its footing above a key psychological price level. Such levels, often round numbers (e.g., $50,000, $60,000, or in this context, a hypothetical significant level like $100,000 if we assume a major bull run has occurred), act as important mental benchmarks for market participants. When price successfully breaks above such a level and subsequently holds it as support, it can signal a powerful shift in market sentiment. This behavior suggests that buyers are willing to step in and defend this new valuation, absorbing selling pressure and preventing a swift retracement. The act of holding above a major psychological level often has a self-fulfilling prophecy component. As traders and algorithms identify this level as critical, buy orders tend to cluster around it, reinforcing its strength as a support zone. Conversely, if the price were to decisively break below such a level after holding above it, it could trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders and a rapid decline, indicating that the previous bullish conviction has waned. The current strength shown by Bitcoin in maintaining its position above such a noted psychological threshold is therefore a bullish indicator, suggesting underlying demand and a positive short-to-medium-term outlook, provided this support continues to hold. This resilience can build confidence among market participants, potentially attracting further capital inflow. 3. Fibonacci Retracement Analysis: Identifying Strong Support Fibonacci retracement levels are a cornerstone of technical analysis, employed to identify potential areas of support and resistance. Derived from the Fibonacci sequence – a series of numbers where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, etc.) – the key retracement levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%. These percentages are applied to a prior price swing (from a significant low to a significant high in an uptrend, or vice-versa in a downtrend) to project areas where the price might pull back before resuming the primary trend. The observation that Fibonacci retracement levels suggest strong support at current BTCUSD levels is particularly pertinent. When the market is in an uptrend and experiences a corrective pullback, traders watch these Fibonacci levels closely. The 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% levels are often considered the most significant. A retracement to, and subsequent bounce from, one of these levels indicates that the correction is likely a healthy pause within a larger bullish trend, rather than a reversal. If BTCUSD is currently finding support near a critical Fibonacci level, it implies that the preceding upward momentum was strong, and the current consolidation or minor pullback is being met with buying interest at a mathematically significant point. For example, if Bitcoin recently rallied from point A (low) to point B (high), and has now retraced to the 61.8% level of that rally and is holding, it's a classic sign that bulls are re-entering the market, viewing the pullback as a discounted buying opportunity. The confluence of a psychological level with a Fibonacci support level would create an even more potent support zone, significantly increasing the probability of a price bounce. Traders often look for candlestick confirmation at these Fibonacci levels before committing to a position. 4. Volatility Analysis: US Evening and Asian Morning Hours Volatility is an inherent characteristic of Bitcoin, representing the degree of variation of its trading price series over time. The observation that BTCUSD volatility tends to increase during US evening and Asian morning hours is a valuable insight for strategic trade timing. This period typically corresponds to the overlap between the closing of the New York trading session and the opening of major Asian financial centers like Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Several factors contribute to this heightened volatility: Market Overlap and Liquidity Shifts: As one major market winds down and another ramps up, there can be shifts in liquidity. The initial hours of the Asian session often bring fresh news, order flows, and participants, leading to price discovery and increased trading activity. News Dissemination: Significant economic data releases, corporate earnings (for Bitcoin-related companies), or crypto-specific news from either the US (late announcements) or Asia can occur during these hours, directly impacting BTCUSD prices. Algorithmic Trading: Many trading algorithms are programmed to react to specific inter-market conditions or news events, and their activity can amplify price movements during these transitional periods. Derivatives Market Activity: The global nature of Bitcoin derivatives markets (futures, options) means that activity in these markets can influence spot prices around the clock. The US evening/Asian morning window sees active participation from traders in these regions. For traders, this period of increased volatility presents both opportunities and risks. Opportunities arise from potentially larger price swings that can be capitalized upon with well-timed entries. Risks are elevated due to the potential for rapid price changes, which can trigger stop-losses or lead to slippage. Therefore, while these hours can be opportune for entry, they also demand heightened vigilance and robust risk management. 5. Entry Strategies: Volatility, Candlestick Patterns, and Timing Leveraging the increased volatility during US evening and Asian morning hours for entry timing requires a methodical approach, primarily focusing on the confirmation provided by bullish candlestick patterns. Candlestick charts offer a visual representation of price movements and can signal shifts in market sentiment and potential reversals or continuations. Key Bullish Candlestick Patterns for Entry Confirmation: Hammer: Appearing after a downtrend, a Hammer is characterized by a small real body at the upper end of the trading range, with a long lower shadow (at least twice the size of the body) and little to no upper shadow. It indicates that sellers initially pushed prices down, but buyers stepped in strongly to drive prices back up near the open, suggesting a potential bottom and bullish reversal. Inverted Hammer: Also a bottom reversal pattern, the Inverted Hammer has a small real body at the lower end of the trading range, a long upper shadow, and a short (or absent) lower shadow. It suggests that buyers attempted to push the price up, but sellers resisted. However, the fact that buyers showed strength is a tentative bullish sign, requiring further confirmation. Bullish Engulfing: This is a powerful two-candle reversal pattern. The first candle is bearish (red/black), and the second candle is bullish (green/white) with a real body that completely "engulfs" the real body of the preceding bearish candle. It signifies that buying pressure has overwhelmed selling pressure. Piercing Line: Another two-candle bullish reversal pattern seen after a downtrend. The first candle is a strong bearish candle. The second candle opens below the low of the first candle but then closes more than halfway up the real body of the first bearish candle. This indicates a significant shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish during the second candle's session. Morning Star: A three-candle bullish reversal pattern. It begins with a long bearish candle, followed by a small-bodied candle (which can be bullish or bearish and ideally gaps down from the first candle), and then a long bullish candle that closes well into the body of the first bearish candle (ideally gapping up from the second candle). The small middle candle (the "star") represents indecision, and the strong bullish third candle confirms the reversal. Three White Soldiers: This is a strong bullish continuation or reversal pattern consisting of three consecutive long-bodied bullish candles. Each candle should open within the body of the previous candle and close at or near its high, making progressively higher highs. It signals sustained buying pressure. Strategic Entry Timing: Monitor Volatile Periods: Be particularly attentive to price action during the US evening and Asian morning hours. Identify Key Support: Note the psychological levels and Fibonacci retracement zones where BTCUSD is expected to find support. Scan for Bullish Candlesticks: Look for the formation of one of the aforementioned bullish candlestick patterns (or others like Dojis at support, Bullish Harami) at or near these support levels during the identified volatile periods. Seek Confirmation: Wait for the candlestick pattern to fully complete at the close of its period (e.g., end of the hour for an hourly chart). Some traders wait for the next candle to trade above the high of the bullish pattern for further confirmation. Volume Analysis: Higher trading volume accompanying the formation of a bullish candlestick pattern adds to its reliability, indicating stronger conviction behind the buying pressure. Context is Key: Bullish reversal patterns are most potent when they appear after a discernible pullback within a larger uptrend, or at the end of a consolidation phase near strong support. By combining the timing advantage of predictable volatility spikes with the confirmation signals from bullish candlestick patterns at technically significant support levels, traders can refine their entry strategies for BTCUSD. 6. Other Key Technical Indicators for Comprehensive Analysis While the core observations provide a strong foundation, incorporating other technical indicators can offer a more holistic view of BTCUSD's market dynamics: Moving Averages (MAs): MAs smooth out price data to identify trend direction and potential support/resistance. The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs (Simple Moving Averages) or EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages) are widely watched. Price trading above these MAs is generally bullish. Crossovers, like a "golden cross" (50-day MA crossing above the 200-day MA), are considered strong long-term bullish signals. Conversely, a "death cross" (50-day MA crossing below the 200-day MA) is bearish. Relative Strength Index (RSI): This momentum oscillator measures the speed and change of price movements, ranging from 0 to 100. An RSI above 70 is often considered overbought (suggesting a potential pullback), while below 30 is oversold (suggesting a potential bounce). However, in strong trends, BTCUSD can remain in overbought or oversold territory for extended periods. Bullish or bearish divergences between price and RSI (e.g., price making a new high while RSI makes a lower high) can signal weakening momentum. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): This trend-following momentum indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. A bullish crossover occurs when the MACD line crosses above the signal line, suggesting increasing upward momentum. A bearish crossover is the opposite. The MACD histogram visualizes the distance between the MACD and signal lines; a growing positive histogram is bullish. Horizontal Support and Resistance Levels: Beyond Fibonacci, historical price action creates distinct support (price floor) and resistance (price ceiling) levels. These are areas where the price has previously reversed or consolidated. Identifying these levels on daily and weekly charts provides a broader map of potential turning points. Trendlines and Channels: Drawing trendlines connecting successive lows (uptrend line) or highs (downtrend line) helps visualize the dominant trend. Price often respects these lines. Parallel trendlines can form channels, providing dynamic support and resistance boundaries. A break out of a well-established trendline or channel can signal a significant change in trend. Volume Analysis: Trading volume is a critical confirming indicator. A price rally accompanied by increasing volume is generally seen as healthy and sustainable. Conversely, a rally on declining volume may indicate weakening conviction. Spikes in volume during breakouts above resistance or bounces from support add validity to the price move. Integrating these indicators with the primary observations about psychological levels, Fibonacci support, and candlestick patterns during volatile periods can provide a more robust and nuanced trading framework. 7. Risk Management in Bitcoin Trading The high volatility inherent in BTCUSD, while offering profit potential, also necessitates stringent risk management. Without it, traders expose themselves to significant losses. Key risk management practices include: Stop-Loss Orders: Always define an exit point for a trade if it moves against you. A stop-loss order automatically closes a position when the price reaches a predetermined level, limiting potential losses. Position Sizing: Determine the appropriate amount of capital to allocate to a single trade based on your overall portfolio size and risk tolerance. A common rule is to risk no more than 1-2% of trading capital on any individual trade. Risk/Reward Ratio: Before entering a trade, assess the potential profit (reward) versus the potential loss (risk). Aim for trades where the potential reward is significantly greater than the risk (e.g., 2:1 or 3:1). Diversification: While this analysis focuses on BTCUSD, traders should consider diversifying their overall crypto portfolio if they are investors, rather than concentrating all funds in one asset. Emotional Discipline: Avoid making trading decisions based on fear (FUD - Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) or greed (FOMO - Fear Of Missing Out). Stick to a well-defined trading plan. 8. Potential Future Outlook (Based on Technicals) Based on the current technical posture where Bitcoin shows strength above a key psychological level and finds support at Fibonacci retracement zones, the outlook leans cautiously optimistic, contingent on these supports holding. Bullish Scenario: If BTCUSD continues to respect these support levels, particularly during periods of consolidation, and bullish candlestick patterns during volatile US evening/Asian morning hours lead to upward impulses, further upside is likely. A sustained break above immediate overhead resistance, confirmed by volume, could see BTCUSD challenge its next major resistance zones and potentially trend towards new highs. The ongoing defense of psychological levels is paramount for this scenario. Bearish Scenario: Should the identified support levels (psychological and Fibonacci) fail to hold, the outlook could shift. A decisive break below these supports, especially on increased selling volume, would indicate that sellers have gained control. This could lead to a deeper correction, targeting lower support structures and potentially invalidating the current bullish sentiment. Increased volatility during the US evening/Asian morning hours could, in this case, exacerbate downward moves if bearish patterns emerge. 9. Conclusion The technical analysis of BTCUSD reveals a market displaying notable strength, characterized by its ability to hold above a significant psychological price point and find robust support at Fibonacci retracement levels. This underlying resilience is a positive sign for bulls. The tendency for volatility to surge during the US evening and Asian morning trading sessions presents strategic windows for traders, particularly when seeking entries confirmed by validated bullish candlestick patterns at these critical support junctures. A comprehensive trading approach should also integrate other indicators like moving averages, RSI, MACD, and volume analysis to confirm signals and understand the broader market context. While the current technical setup suggests a favorable environment for bulls, the inherent volatility of Bitcoin demands disciplined risk management practices. Traders must remain vigilant, adapting their strategies to the evolving price action and ensuring that any bullish conviction is continuously validated by the market's behavior at these key technical inflection points. The interplay between these technical elements will be crucial in determining BTCUSD's trajectory in the near to medium term.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bryandowningqln
Bitcoin - An unusual chart!Over the past 3 years, I’ve noticed that Bitcoin has been moving in a consistently bullish pattern, as shown on the chart. After breaking out of the red ellipse shape, Bitcoin tends to rally strongly—and that’s usually the signal for altcoins to follow. We’ve now broken out of this ellipse, and it looks like the real bullish move is just beginning. In this chart, I’ve tried to illustrate both the potential upside ahead of us and the estimated timeframe in which this move could unfold. I’ve divided the chart into segments from August 2022 to April 2025. 🔸The red numbers 1, 2, 3, 4 indicate periods of consolidation. 🔸The blue numbers 1, 2, 3, 4 represent strong Bitcoin and altcoin rallies that follow the breakouts. While the exact percentage gains and time durations may vary, if we take the average, we can estimate the upcoming move to be around 120%, taking Bitcoin to around $165K. Similarly, the average time duration for each bullish move has been approximately 120 days. [b ]Welcome to the bull market. Best Regards Ceciliones 🎯
by ceciliones
4
Momentum Fades: Is Bitcoin Poised for a Pullback to Rebalance?Given the recent easing of US-China tariff tensions 🇺🇸🇨🇳, we’re observing a notable rotation of capital into equities 📈. This shift is lending strength to the US dollar 💵, which in turn has exerted downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price action. After a strong momentum-driven rally 🚀, Bitcoin is now showing early signs of weakness, suggesting a potential consolidation or a measured pullback. With equity markets—particularly tech stocks—appearing overextended 🏦, a retracement seems likely. Since Bitcoin remains closely correlated with the tech sector, a synchronized pullback across both asset classes is a plausible scenario. I’m closely monitoring for a counter-trend opportunity, specifically eyeing a short entry should we see a decisive break in market structure 🔍. It’s important to note that this setup is highly dependent on price action confirming the thesis as outlined in the accompanying video. If the anticipated conditions do not materialize, this trade idea will be promptly invalidated. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading cryptocurrencies and equities involves significant risk. Please conduct your own research and consult with a professional advisor before making any investment decisions. 📊
Short
by fxtraderanthony
Having a Mini ALT pump -but it may not last much Longer -CAUTION The main chart is the Daily BTC PA and the BTC DOMINANCE ( BTC.D ) super imposed below, for the same period. When BTC.D Drops and BTC PA remains stable, we see ALTS increase in Value, Mostly. On the main chart, you can see that in Nov 2024, Till Dec, we had a mini ALT seasons and we are having another now But will this last ? If we look in more detail at the BTC.D chart below, we can get some ideas Will it Last ? I do not think so. We are on two areas of strong support right now. The 618 Fib extension has provided support already and PA bounced. In fact, at time of writing, Many ALTS are in the RED on an hour chart. We need to watch and see where we go in the next 7 hours Should this Fib extension Fail, Just below is a longer term line of support. SO, I would head towards a High rate of Caution with the ALTS right now. Does this mean that Bitcon will push higher ? The potential is there, YES High Level of Caution for th eALTS right now
by Orriginal
XRP Breakout Alert – Watching 3.3, 3.8, and 5.0 TargetsXRP/USDT just broke out of a 5-month sideways structure, finally pushing through the descending trendline (triangle resistance). We're now testing the key 2.7 zone—a critical area where I believe a strong close with volume is needed to confirm this breakout. If we get that confirmation, the next upside target is around the previous high near 3.3, followed by Fib extension levels at: 1.618 = 3.81 2.618 = 5.08 The weekly chart supports this breakout idea as well, price held above the previous demand and MACD is slowly curling up. BINANCE:XRPUSDT Summary: 1. Breakout from triangle confirmed 2. Watching for strong close above 2.7 3. Targets: 3.3 (previous high), 3.81, 5.08 4. Weekly & daily both show structure support Let’s see if XRP can reclaim its momentum.
Long
by Ziolian_VTMarkets
Bitcoin is still following 2017 run. Surprising things to see As many of you know, I have been referring This cycle of Bitcoin to that of the 2013 ->2017 bull run. And while PA has Fallen off and below the Fractal itself, we do still have one Very Major thing to see and it is a Good one. So, the chart above has an arrow. This is pointing to Sep, Oct, Nov 2024. See how PA pushed up to the "Neckline" of the Range and got rejected for 2 weeks. A Red then Green Candles, on or below that "Neckline" and then Off it went. We are currently just below the "Neckline" of this Range and we are currently printing a Red candle. It is early days but maybe we will repeat the same pattern. There are reasons that I have explained in an earlier post today, that point towards a possible Red candle this week. The other thing I want to show you on this subject is the MACD This is a Daily MACD ( the main chart being Weekly) But while the actual PA of the MACD is different, I want you to see the Histogram. The Histogram shows us the % Difference between the MACD line ( yellow) and its Signal line ( Red) Have a look at the the similarity the histogram pattern in 2024 ( arrow ) compared to this period Now. The Large green Climb from a Low, the fall, the new smaller climb, the drop to Red and then a push higher. OK, so the scale is different but, to me, it shows a similar pattern to the previous end of Ranging period. We need to see if this pays out. If so, we will see a Red Histogram for a while.. This ties in with the ideas presented above on the PA patterns. But overall this cycle, we do seem to be repeating patterns in a broad sense, with a larger scale currently. The larger scale of thispossible Red Histogram also plays into the idea mentioned at the end of this post. So , what is the connection to the 2013 - 2017 Cycle. Look at the upper trendline that has rejected PA since 2024. This is an OLD line of resistance from before 2017... Lets look at a zoomed out chart Look at that Arrow on the Left and that trend line. It is the SAME LINE - Not only that, it rejected PA twice in late 2016 and 2017, before PA broke through and went on to reach a new ATH So, Having seen this, I am happy to believe that we ARE Still following that 2013 -> 2017 Cycle pattern. True, PA has fallen below the Fractel but we do seem to be repeating the Trend line Rejection, Dip, Rejection and........ You can also see how this same trend line, once crossed, is extremely strong support - infact we did not drop back below until July 2022, after another ATH BUT, as ever, I look to BOTH sides and there is a chance we may see a stiffer rejection, IF we get rejected here again. Should events dictate a further Drop in PA, we may see PA return to the next trend line below, around 82K. ( remember that Red Histogram pattern I mentioned earlier ) While this would Scare many, it would still play into the pattern we have been seeing. 2024 saw 3 major Rejections off its Neckline. We have had 2 so far in 2025 and we are there right now, waiting to see what happens, with a RED candle. A Drop back to 82K would also reset the Daily MACD very nicely. I remain Cautious and Bullish what ever happens in the short term, I have little doubt about further pushes higher, maybe a LOT higher
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
4