Bitcoin Monthly Candle close colour patterns since 2011We got the expected RED March close but it was a close thing.
but, this creates better Odds for a continued push to ATH.
We have had only 3 occasions when we had a Green Jan, Red Feb, Red March ( arrows)
2 of those went on to an ATH the following Year !
The other one was entering a Bear Market.
Of the previous 7 RED March Closes, 5 were followed by a Green April
And of those 5, 4 were followed by consecutive Green candles closes for the following Months.
As you can see, April, May and June do have more GREEN closes than Red on average but May and June is near 50/50
It could be said that March Candle close was a "Spinning Top", showing in-balance / indecision in the market. This is possibly driven by Macro events.
We had a similar situation in 2012 and April was Green, as were the following months.
We had 2 other occasions with small Red candle bodies in March, both were Hammer Candles, one inverted, that led to a red April, the other was not and let to a green April.
The March close we just had, had a Long Upper Wick. To me, this shows the BEARS had the upper hand, keeping driving down.
And thats OK, PA needed to reset but we now need a GREEN April
Statistically, April should close Green - We currently have a Score of 8 Green to 5 Red month closes for April.
April seems to have opened GREEN and I hope to see it close that colour though we do need Caution
Because of the Colour sequence over recent months, there are not many comparisons to use.
Bitcoinprice
Cronos is on the move, Could we see it hit $1 soon?The chart is a weekly candlestick chart of CRONOS (CRO) against USD on TradingView, showing price action from late 2023 to a projected point in 2025. Let’s break down the key elements:
Price Movement and Trend:
CRONOS experienced a notable peak around mid-2024, reaching approximately $0.24000, followed by a sharp decline.
After the peak, the price entered a downtrend, forming a descending triangle pattern, which is typically bearish but can lead to a breakout in either direction.
The price has since stabilized in an "Accumulation Zone" between $0.07197 and $0.08925, with the current price at $0.08925 as of April 1, 2025.
Descending Triangle Pattern:
The descending triangle is defined by a downward-sloping resistance line (yellow) and a horizontal support line around $0.08925.
This pattern often signals a potential breakout. A break above the resistance could indicate a bullish reversal, while a break below support might lead to further downside.
The resistance line is currently around $0.13000 to $0.15000, based on the slope.
Accumulation Zone:
The price is in an "Accumulation Zone" between $0.07197 and $0.08925, suggesting that buyers are holding this level and potentially accumulating positions.
Multiple tests of this support level indicate strong buying interest, which could set the stage for a breakout if bullish momentum builds.
Target Projection (TG 1S):
The chart projects a target labeled "TG 1S" at $0.42000, a significant increase from the current price.
This target is likely based on the height of the descending triangle pattern added to the breakout point, a common technical analysis method.
However, reaching $1 (as requested) would require a much larger move, approximately an 11x increase from the current price of $0.08925.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Key support is at $0.07197, with the current price at $0.08925.
Resistance from the descending triangle is around $0.13000 to $0.15000, with a previous high at $0.17018.
A break above $0.17018 could open the door to higher levels, but reaching $1 would require sustained momentum and likely strong fundamental catalysts.
Historical Context and Feasibility of $1:
CRONOS reached an all-time high of around $0.96 in November 2021 during a crypto bull market, so $1 is within historical precedent.
However, the current market environment (as of April 2025) would need to see significant bullish momentum, possibly driven by broader crypto market trends, adoption of the Cronos ecosystem, or major developments in the Crypto.com platform (which CRONOS is tied to).
The $0.42000 target is a more immediate goal, but $1 would require an extraordinary rally, likely over a longer timeframe.
Timeframe:
The chart extends into mid-2025, and the $0.42000 target appears to be a medium-term projection.
Reaching $1 might take longer, potentially into late 2025 or beyond, depending on market conditions.
Bitcoin's Rocky Quarter: Tariffs, Whales, and Volatility Loom
Bitcoin's first quarter of 2025 has concluded with a whimper, marking its worst Q1 performance since the tumultuous bear market of 2018.1 While gold has surged to record highs, fueled by geopolitical tensions and US trade tariffs, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain momentum, leaving traders bracing for potential further volatility. This week’s preview reveals a confluence of factors that could significantly impact Bitcoin's price trajectory.
A Disappointing First Quarter
The initial months of 2025 were anticipated to be a period of growth for Bitcoin, particularly with the anticipation surrounding the halving event. However, the cryptocurrency failed to deliver on these expectations. Instead, it experienced a period of stagnation and even decline, contrasting sharply with the robust performance of traditional safe-haven assets like gold.
Several factors contributed to this underwhelming performance. The escalating trade tensions, particularly the US tariffs, have injected uncertainty into global markets, diverting capital towards established safe-haven assets.
Tariffs and Trade Tensions: A Persistent Headwind
The US imposition of trade tariffs has emerged as a significant headwind for Bitcoin. These tariffs, designed to protect domestic industries, have disrupted global trade flows and created a climate of economic uncertainty.2 Investors, wary of potential market disruptions, have sought refuge in traditional safe-haven assets like gold, which has historically outperformed during periods of economic instability.
The impact of these tariffs extends beyond immediate market reactions. They signal a potential shift towards protectionist policies, which could have long-term implications for global trade and investment flows. Bitcoin, often touted as a decentralized and borderless asset, is particularly vulnerable to disruptions in global trade and capital flows.
Whale Activity and Market Manipulation
Adding to the complexity of the market is the activity of large Bitcoin holders, often referred to as "whales."3 These entities, possessing significant amounts of Bitcoin, can exert considerable influence on market prices through large buy or sell orders. Recent observations suggest increased whale activity, potentially contributing to the volatility and price fluctuations.
Concerns about market manipulation have also resurfaced. The decentralized nature of Bitcoin, while a core strength, also presents challenges in terms of regulation and oversight. This lack of centralized control can create opportunities for manipulation, leading to price swings that are not necessarily reflective of fundamental market dynamics.
Bitcoin Bears Tighten Grip: Where’s the Next Support?
The recent price action indicates that Bitcoin bears are tightening their grip. The failure to sustain upward momentum has emboldened sellers, leading to a downward trend. Traders are now closely monitoring key support levels, anticipating potential further declines.
Identifying these support levels is crucial for understanding the potential trajectory of Bitcoin's price. Technical analysis, using tools like Fibonacci retracement levels and moving averages, can help traders identify potential areas of support where buying pressure may emerge. However, the volatile nature of Bitcoin makes it challenging to predict these levels with certainty.
Gold vs. Bitcoin: A Comparative Analysis
The stark contrast between gold's recent performance and Bitcoin's struggles has reignited the debate about their respective roles as safe-haven assets. Gold, with its long history and established reputation, has benefited from the current climate of uncertainty.
However, Bitcoin proponents argue that its decentralized nature and limited supply make it a superior store of value in the long term. The comparison between the two assets highlights the evolving nature of safe-haven assets and the growing acceptance of digital currencies. The quote "Gold has taken 26 years to 10X. Bitcoin has taken 4 years to 10X" shows the potential for rapid growth, but also its volatility.
Looking Ahead: Volatility and Uncertainty
The coming week promises to be a period of significant volatility for Bitcoin. Traders should brace for potential price swings, driven by a combination of factors, including:
• Continued Trade Tensions: The ongoing trade disputes and potential for further tariffs are likely to continue to impact market sentiment.
• Whale Activity: Large buy or sell orders from whales could trigger significant price fluctuations.
• Regulatory Developments: Any regulatory announcements or policy changes could have a substantial impact on Bitcoin's price.
• Macroeconomic Factors: Inflation data, interest rate decisions, and other macroeconomic indicators will continue to influence investor behavior.
•
In conclusion, Bitcoin's disappointing first quarter has set the stage for a period of heightened volatility. The confluence of trade tensions, whale activity, and market manipulation creates a challenging environment for traders. While the long-term potential of Bitcoin remains a subject of debate, the immediate future is marked by uncertainty and the need for caution.
Bitcoin is so close to falling into a Bear, repeating Aug 2023First off, this maybe the last time I post this chart. Binance are Stopping USDT use from tomorrow morning. I have used this chart since around March 2020 and it is my most trusted,. A sad day for me. This chart saw me through Bulk Run, Deep Bear and now this Recovery and Bull run.
ANYWAY, the Arrow points towards a time in 2023 when we were so close to dropping into a Bear market for a number of reasons. Lets just say that Long Red Candle shoiwed a sudden weakening of Sentiment, A Lot of selling and confidence went.
It took a number of weeks for confidence to return.
And Now, we have a Similar thing. FEAR is high
AND I AM BUYING MORE BITCOIN - this is excellent...because when the price rises again, this maybe the last we see this price range.
We have Loads of support below.
It is that RED 236 Fib circle that is dragging PA down, as I mentioned last week. This and the Fact that the Weekly MACD is still falling Bearish
As you can see, the weekly MACD hits Neutral around 21 April, in 3 weeks time. It is from this point forwards that I believe we will see major shift's in Sentiment and PA action. Possibly earlier but maybe not strongly.
Also note how the Histogram is levelling out. We need to see a White candle in the coming weeks or we could be facing bigger issues maybe.
The Daily version of this same chart shows us very clearly where we are.
This is Great News. We have broken through that 236 Red Fib circle. It is now Support. though we are under a line of resistance. But we broke through that in the recent past.
I still think we will visit 78K again for a very short period of time. ( Hopefully, nothing is certain)
Currently, the shorter term charts show Support found on the 618 Fib retracement line. And we need to see if this holds
Over all, We are near the end of the first phase of this pause in Pushes higher. We have that wall at 109K to break through in the longer Term. Once Weekly MACD is on neutral, we will wait fo rthe daily to get there also and then we can push higher with Strength.
This push maynot be a single push. the Weight of BTC with its current price holds back the sprints to ATH we once saw.
Patience is a Virtue
HOLD and BUY MORE
Bitcoin hit that 236 Fib circle I warned you about- and now ?As we come to the end of the week, we see the potential for further drop as PA slides along that 236 Fib circle. ( Red)
It NEVER ceases to amaze me how PA reacts to Fib circles and yet, as if by magic, there is some Macro News at exactly the same time
On this occasion, It seems the US inflation figures on Friday caused this Drop in price.
This Chart is the daily verion of the Weekly chart i often post about weekly candle closes.
I trust this chart
The chance for a drop to arounf 75K is very real and if that fails, down to the 2 Fib extension arounf 68K, though I think that is unlikely
We do need to watch on which side of thois Fib circle PA sits tomorrow. - Idealy, it breaks through tonight and next week candle sits on the "Support" side on the circle.
If it remains as resistance, A Steep drop is highly likely.
In my opinion.
Daily MACD is turned down, heading towards it ssignal line. If that crosses, the Daily becomes very BEARISH
We have to wait and see what happens and be ready to react.
I do have SPOT buy orders around 78 K
If we Drop Lower, I will dig up some funds and buy more lol
WE WAIT FOR WEEKKY CLOSE
BTC Volatility Play: Compression, Fib Confluence & 48% IV OptionBTCUSD | Volatility Compression Meets Macro Catalyst: Options & Technical Thesis
Chart: BTC/USD 1M (BITSTAMP)
Bitcoin is currently consolidating below all-time highs after touching the $95K level. The monthly candle structure shows the first significant pause in momentum, with price now holding around the $82,000–$84,000 range. This area represents a confluence of prior resistance-turned-support, Fib retracement zones, and the VWAP session level (~$84,910).
Technically, the long-term ascending broadening wedge remains intact. MACD is extended but positive, while RSI has cooled to approximately 62. The structure supports the thesis of short-term rebalancing before a potential continuation or breakdown. Volatility compression is evident.
Options Market Context | BTC1! (May 30, 2025 Expiry)
Implied Volatility (IV): 48.1% across strikes
Underlying Spot Price: $82,978
ATM Strike: $84,500
Theta: ~ -52 per leg (high decay environment)
Delta Cluster: Calls around 0.53–0.59, Puts around -0.41 to -0.47
Despite BTC's recent move and upcoming halving-related volatility potential, the options market is pricing in moderate movement, not extreme. This opens the door for straddles, strangles, and gamma-based strategies if volatility expands or price breaks out of range.
Breakeven Analysis: BTC Straddles (May 30, 2025)
The table below illustrates the breakeven zones and required directional moves for various straddle positions, based on total premium (call + put).
Strike Total Premium ($) Upper Breakeven ($) Lower Breakeven ($) % Move Up % Move Down
82,500 13,468 95,968 69,032 15.65% 16.81%
83,000 13,454 96,454 69,546 16.24% 16.19%
84,000 13,488 97,488 70,512 17.45% 15.04%
84,500 13,546 98,046 70,954 18.16% 14.48%
85,000 13,607 98,607 71,393 18.87% 13.97%
Interpretation:
The FWB:83K –$84.5K strikes offer the most balanced convexity. The average breakeven range requires BTC to move approximately 15%–18% in either direction by expiration to achieve profitability.
Strategy Considerations
1. Long Straddle at ATM ($84,500):
Total cost: ~$13,546
Profit potential if BTC > GETTEX:98K or < $70.9K
Ideal for traders anticipating a significant move in either direction
Vega + gamma rich; best for breakout environments
2. Directional Option Play:
Long Call at $85,000 (~$6,538) for a lower-cost breakout bet
Long Put at $82,500 (~$5,713) to lean bearish
Scaled exposure possible for either side, depending on directional bias
3. Advanced Structures (Neutral Thesis):
Short Straddle or Iron Butterfly at $84,500 to harvest premium
High decay potential, but vulnerable to directional expansion
Only suitable if anticipating range-bound behavior near-term
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin is entering a historically volatile phase post-halving with price compressing below all-time highs and implied volatility sitting at moderate levels. This convergence of technical consolidation and underpriced volatility creates a strong environment for defined-risk, high-reward trades.
Whether you favor directional breakouts or volatility-based strategies, the current setup offers clear levels, manageable risk, and strong reward-to-risk symmetry.
Chart source: BTCUSD Monthly (BITSTAMP)
Options source: CME BTC Options (May 30, 2025)
$BTC for Next week (31st March - 4th April)Given out all the ideas, Will react to the market based on which idea presents itself.
If Yellow line - Its better to stay out of the markets.
With the other wait for MSS (Market Structure Shift) and then take the trade and target the other side of the liquidity.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD , BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Overall I'm neutral on CRYPTOCAP:BTC but SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ and NYSE:ES look bearish to me, and CRYPTOCAP:BTC could follow.
Bitcoin Price Action: Breakdown in Progress Bitcoin is showing clear signs of a breakdown from a rising wedge pattern, a classic bearish reversal structure. The chart suggests that BTC failed to sustain momentum above key moving averages and is now heading toward critical support zones.
Key Observations:
🔹 Rising Wedge Breakdown: BTC recently broke below a rising wedge, indicating potential further downside.
🔹 Moving Averages as Resistance: The 200 SMA (blue) and 50 SMA (yellow) are acting as resistance, confirming bearish momentum.
🔹 Support & Target Levels:
First Target : Around $79,845 - $78,516, aligning with previous structure support.
Second Target : $75,762 - $72,500, where strong demand could emerge.
What’s Next?
Bearish Case: If Bitcoin fails to hold the $78,000-$79,000 zone, we could see further declines toward $72,500.
Bullish Rebound: A strong bounce from support levels could push BTC back toward $85,000, but it needs to reclaim key moving averages to confirm strength.
🚨 Final Thought: Bitcoin bulls need to step in soon, or we might see deeper corrections ahead. #DeathCross
Bitcoin Squeeze Point – Breakout or Breakdown?Bitcoin is approaching a key inflection zone where the Daily Downtrend Resistance and the Monthly Uptrend Support intersect. This confluence could be setting the stage for a major breakout or breakdown, and the next move could define BTC’s medium-term trend.
🧠 Key Levels to Watch:
Daily Downtrend Resistance (Red) – Price is testing this descending trendline again.
Monthly Uptrend Support (Green) – Strong support held since August 2024.
Fibonacci 0.5 Level (~79.3K) – Acting as mid-zone control point.
Fibonacci 0.618 Golden Zone (~72K) – Strong historical retracement support.
🟦 Bullish Scenario (Blue Arrow):
If BTC breaks above the daily downtrend and holds above the green uptrend line:
Possible target: 110K, aligning with the 1.0 Fibonacci extension.
Would confirm continuation of the larger bullish trend.
🔻 Bearish Scenario (Not drawn but implied):
If BTC breaks down below 79K and the monthly trendline:
Eyes on 72K for a potential bounce at the 0.618 Fib level.
Below that, potential deeper retracement toward the 65K–60K zone.
⏳ Conclusion:
BTC is sitting at a high-confluence zone. This is not the time to chase—wait for confirmation of breakout or breakdown before reacting.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 28, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin underwent several significant peaks as it completed the Interim Coin Rally 88400. Subsequently, it experienced a decline, moving towards the Mean Support 82500, with the possibility of extending its trajectory to retest the previously completed Outer Coin Rally 78700. An upward momentum may be initiated from the Mean Support of 82500 or the Key Support of 79000/completed Outer Coin Dip of 78700.
Ethereum Major Breakout Confirmed, Targeting $7800Ethereum has just confirmed a major breakout above a critical resistance zone, signaling a strong bullish continuation. Here's the detailed breakdown:
1.Ascending Triangle Breakout:
ETHUSD had been consolidating within an ascending triangle pattern since late 2024, with the upper resistance around $4000 and a rising support trendline (highlighted in yellow).
The breakout above $4000 on high volume confirms the bullish pattern, often a precursor to significant upward moves.
2. Accumulation Zone:
Prior to the breakout, ETH spent several months in an accumulation zone between $2000 and $4000. This phase allowed buyers to build positions, setting the stage for the current rally.
3. Price Targets:
The measured move of the ascending triangle (height of the pattern) projects a target around $7800. This is calculated by taking the height of the triangle (from the base at $2000 to the resistance at $4000, which is $2000) and adding it to the breakout point ($4000 + $2000 = $6000). However, considering the momentum and historical price action, the next psychological level at $7800 seems achievable.
4. Support Levels:
The previous resistance at $4000 now acts as strong support. If ETH pulls back, this level should hold to maintain the bullish structure.
Additional support lies around $3000, aligning with the 50-day moving average (not shown but inferred from typical setups).
5. Momentum Indicators:
While the chart doesn’t display specific indicators like RSI or MACD, the sharp upward move suggests strong momentum. Traders should watch for overbought conditions on RSI (above 70) as ETH approaches higher levels, which could signal a potential pullback.
BTC/USDT: Strategic Entry Points for a Potential Bullish ReversaAnalysis of Key Positions in the BTC/USDT Chart
The chart provided shows a 30-minute timeframe for Bitcoin (BTC) against Tether (USDT) on Binance. The chart includes two labeled positions ("Position 1" and "Position 2") that highlight key areas of interest for traders. Below is a detailed breakdown of these positions:
---
1. Position 1
- Location: Near the horizontal green support line, around the $83,600 level.
- Significance:
- Support Zone: This area acts as a strong support level, where the price has previously bounced back after testing it. The horizontal green line indicates that this level has held firm multiple times, suggesting it is a critical zone for buyers.
- Potential Entry Point: Traders can consider entering long positions near this support level if they believe the price will reverse higher. This is a classic "buy the dip" strategy.
- Stop-Loss Placement: To manage risk, traders should place stop-loss orders slightly below this support level (e.g., $83,200–$83,400). If the price breaks below this level, it could signal a continuation of the downtrend.
2. Position 2
- Location: Near the descending blue trendline, around the $85,000–$86,000 range.
- Significance:
- Resistance Zone: The blue trendline acts as dynamic resistance, and the price has been bouncing off this level multiple times. A breakout above this trendline would be a strong bullish signal, indicating that buyers have overcome short-term selling pressure.
- Potential Entry Point: Traders can consider entering long positions after a confirmed breakout above the trendline. A breakout is typically confirmed when the price closes above the trendline on a candlestick.
- Stop-Loss Placement: For safety, traders should place stop-loss orders just below the trendline (e.g., $84,800–$85,000). This ensures that the trade is exited if the breakout fails and the price reverses lower.
---
Comparison Between Position 1 and Position 2
- Position 1 (Near Support):
- Risk Profile: Lower risk, as it is closer to a well-defined support level.
- Reward Potential: Moderate, as the upside target would likely be the next resistance level (e.g., the trendline or Fibonacci retracement levels).
- Strategy: Suitable for traders who want to enter at a cheaper price but are willing to take on some downside risk.
- Position 2 (Near Trendline Breakout):
- Risk Profile: Higher risk, as it requires waiting for a confirmed breakout.
- Reward Potential: Higher, as a successful breakout could lead to a stronger upward move.
- Strategy: Suitable for traders who prefer confirmation before entering long positions.
---
Actionable Insights
1. For Short-Term Traders:
- Entry Strategy: Look for pullbacks to the $83,600 support level to enter long positions. Use tight stop-loss orders below the support to manage risk.
- Exit Strategy: Set profit targets based on Fibonacci retracement levels or previous highs (e.g., $85,000–$86,000).
2. For Long-Term Traders:
- Entry Strategy: Wait for a confirmed breakout above the blue trendline ($85,000–$86,000) before entering long positions. This ensures that the bullish trend is sustainable.
- Exit Strategy: Use trailing stops or take profits at key resistance levels (e.g., $87,000–$88,000).
---
Risk Management
- Always use stop-loss orders to protect against unexpected price movements.
- Consider using position sizing to limit exposure to market volatility.
- Monitor volume and momentum indicators to confirm the strength of any breakout or reversal.
---
Conclusion
The two positions highlighted in the chart provide distinct trading opportunities:
1. Position 1 (Near Support): A potential entry point for aggressive traders looking to buy the dip near $83,600.
2. Position 2 (Near Trendline Breakout): A safer entry point for traders who prefer confirmation before entering long positions near $85,000–$86,000.
By combining these positions with proper risk management and technical analysis, traders can increase their chances of success in the BTC/USDT market.
---
Final Answer: The two positions indicate key trading opportunities:
- Position 1: Near the $83,600 support level, suitable for traders willing to buy the dip.
- Position 2: Near the $85,000–$86,000 trendline breakout, ideal for traders seeking confirmation before entering long positions.
Bitcoin Daily UPDATE - something for the weekend sir ?Chances are we will see PA Drop over the weekend if what has happened today is anything to go by
As mentioned in apost this morning, Pa fgot rejected off the upper trend line of the descending channel and currently Sits on the POC ( point of control ) on the VRVP ( Vivible Range Volume Profile )
The Drop if we loose this support could be swift but we do have support lines below to try and hold up the fall
But again, as mentioned, a drop is NOT such a bad thing....unless we loose 73K, in which case I will seriously think again about what I Hold.
The 4 hour chart shows the current situation more clearly
If we do bounce of this, remain cautious....we need to get over and Hold 91K before we start screaming "ATH"
For me, I have opened anotehr Spot order at 74K
I go higher than the expected Low incase the visit to the low is a Very quick wick down and the order does not have time to fill.
DO NOT PANIC
Have a good Weekend
Alternatively, Bitcoin just Drops to 73K in the near future In a slight contradiction to my previous post - as I like to consider ALL options and present them to you, so YOU can make up your own mind.
I saya SLight contradiction, as 73K is Still the target here.
See this channel AP is in? The descending channel we been in for a while.
We seem to be getting rejected off the upper trend line.
The lower line crosses the 1 Fib extension and Hits the rising Long term support around 73K
We do have Support just below the Current PA position on the POC ( Point of control) of the VRVP
So, Hang on and we wait to see what happens.
If PA returns to 78K and then 73K - DO NOT PANIC
This would be SUPERB buying opportunities
So, Consider all the possibilities I have sugested today, Make up your own minds and, if you want to, please do leave a comment
Bitcoin -potential to 91K, back to 78K wick to 73K and THEN -->>In this cycle, since the push up from the Low in Jan 2023, we have had 2 other Major pushes.
Each of these came off the Rising line of support that we are currently heading towards again, with the date of "Touch" currently in Mid June.
If we rise and stay back in the higher Range Box, that date is even later in the year ( around Mid Q4 )
As I have talked about many times, I am watching the MACD as the "trigger".
The chart below is the Weekly MACD
We reach Neutral , if we continue current rate of descent, around end of April
This is obviously before we would hit the line of support being talked about above.
That leaves 2 possibilities.
1) - MACD may drop below Neutral
2) - We may see a bounce from PA but NOT to a New ATH
If you look back at previous range we had in 2024, there was a bounce there.
See how the Histogram went White as we had that bounce
We Just had a white bar on the histogram .
Will we see another White bar next week and a further rise in PA
Top of current Range box in 91K - We could head to that again, Drop back to the Low around 78K and then we would be ready. This would be over the next 3 - 6 weeks
78K is the Price that touches that line of support the soonest, in early June
Why could we go back down?
For the reasons above regarding the MACD BUT ALSO ;-
There are things called FAIR VALUE GAPS (FVG)
. These gaps highlight market inefficiencies and potential trading opportunities, allowing traders to anticipate price movements and confirm trends.
That area just below Current PA on this weekly chart is the FVG that goes down to 73K
It is NOT guaranteed that PA will revisit that area but while we sit so close, the potential exists
But something to note, that could be benifical is that Should PA Drop to Fill that Gap, PA could hit that line of support earlier than Mid June..infact, it would be a month earlier and be in Mid May.
So, I can see the potential for a push higher in the near future, to extend MACD, then a drop back to the range Lows, a Sharp wick down to around 73K and THEN a sustained push higher...
This is just an idea.....No guarantees...But it does have Potential
We will see - Time will tell...........
BTC/USDT - The moment of truthThe BTC/USDT chart highlights a crucial moment as the price breaks out of a bearish trendline and tests a Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone. Key scenarios include:
- A potential continuation of the bullish trend if the price successfully holds above the FVG zone and confirms support.
- Alternatively, a rejection at this level could signal a return to bearish momentum.
Keep an eye on price action within the FVG zone for confirmation of the next move. Which way do you see BTC heading?
Is Bitcoin slowly forming a top? What to expect from the market About a week ago, I posted that the recent uptick in BTC (and the broader crypto market) was as a result of Bears taking profits and that the market will dip lower once this correction runs its duration. Well, so far, my prediction is still on track and we can expect prices to climb higher over the next few days (maybe even a week from when this is published).
I believe that that mini rally (black path) within the larger uptrend (green path) has enough juice for one more leg before it pulls back. Once that happens, price might stall around that area and then push higher, setting the stage for the final leg of the larger upswing.
I personally don't like trading matket correction unless they're on the weekly or monthly chart. However, I will keep monitoring price until my prediction plays out.
What are your predictions for Bitcoin's short term price? Let me know in the comments section below.
Make sure you follow me to get future updates as they unfold.
Bitcoin Stalls Below $90,000 as Buying Pressure WeakensThe last four trading sessions for Bitcoin (BTC) have been fairly neutral, with the cryptocurrency fluctuating by around 2% , staying just below the critical $90,000 resistance level. The current uncertainty in the market is mainly driven by the renewed trade war narrative, following Trump’s recent comments about imposing tariffs on cars and auto parts. These statements have once again elevated global economic concerns, prompting investors to avoid risk assets in the short term — a category that includes Bitcoin. As long as this uncertainty persists, this neutral behavior could remain a defining feature of BTC in upcoming sessions.
Key Bearish Channel in Play
Since January 20, a notable bearish channel has taken shape, favoring selling pressure and driving BTC down to $77,000 in recent weeks. At present, the price is testing the upper boundary of the channel, but recent buying attempts have not been strong enough to trigger a breakout.
RSI Indicator
The RSI line initially showed a strong upward slope, but this momentum has faded as the indicator approaches the neutral 50 line, suggesting a balance between buyers and sellers. This reinforces the resistance posed by the upper edge of the bearish channel.
MACD Indicator
A similar situation is developing in the MACD, where the histogram has begun to decline steadily, nearing the zero line. This behavior points to a lack of strength in the moving average trends and may indicate that neutrality could continue to dominate BTC price action in the near term.
Key Levels:
$98,900 – Distant resistance: This level sits near the mid-range zone of a large sideways range observed in previous weeks. A bullish move toward this area could revive the forgotten bullish bias and reestablish the importance of the broader lateral structure.
$90,000 – Major resistance: Arguably the most relevant resistance zone at the moment. It aligns with the Ichimoku cloud and the upper limit of the current bearish channel. A breakout above this level could jeopardize the prevailing downtrend and introduce a strong bullish momentum.
$78,600 – Key support: This level marks the recent low for BTC. If the price drops back to this zone, it could provide confirmation for the continuation of the bearish channel.
By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst