$97k is the mak-or-break level for BitcoinIf Bitcoin can confirm above GETTEX:07K we are back on bull season.
If price turns around here, we could go to GETTEX:92K , FWB:83K , or $74k.
Bitcoinprice
Is the Top In? Bitcoin's Diminishing ReturnsMany of us have seen the Bitcoin Rainbow chart before. Right now, it implies that there is still room for another leg higher. According to Blockchain Center's 2023 chart , the 'Is this a bubble?' price range is around $111,914 to $143,429.
However, we also see the highs diminish over time. The first peak is outside of 'Maximum Bubble Territory,' the second reaching the same area, and the third hitting 'Sell. Seriously, SELL.'
While this pattern suggests BTC may only reach 'Is this a bubble?' or 'FOMO intensifies' this cycle, there's another pattern that indicates 'HODL' might be as far as it goes.
In the logarithmic chart above, we can see that BTC's price follows a pattern of diminishing returns. It has moved from low to high as follows (rounded):
1. 2010/2011: 0.01 to 31.91 = 3,191x
2. 2011/2013: 1.99 to 1,242 = 624x
3. 2015/2017: 162 to 19,785 = 122x
4. 2018/2021: 3,125 to 68,977 = 22x
5. 2022/2024: 15,479 to 108,367 = 7x
That means the multipliers from low to high have decreased with the following factors:
624.12 ÷ 3,191 ≈ 0.1957 (a 5.10x factor decrease)
122.09 ÷ 624.12 ≈ 0.1955 (a 5.11x factor decrease)
22.07 ÷ 122.09 ≈ 0.1809 (a 5.52x factor decrease)
7.00 ÷ 22.07 ≈ 0.3170 (a 3.15x factor decrease)
The most recent bullish run appears to be an outlier; if there'd been a 5.52x factor decrease from 22.07, that would've meant a rough 4x (22.07 ÷ 5.52) from the low, or a peak of 61,916.
There are multiple ways to interpret this pattern, and why it may or may not be holding this time around:
On the bullish side:
It's 'different' this cycle
A pro-crypto Trump administration/SEC chair shifts fundamentals
Growing legitimisation of BTC in institutional and regulatory circles
More funds flowing in via BTC ETFs
Currency debasement means more demand for BTC
The Rainbow chart indicates there's more room to grow
The halving pattern is still playing out
Search interest is below previous peaks on Google Trends , implying more potential interest
On the bearish side:
The culmination of bullish fundamental factors has overextended the pattern (much like how RSI can show an asset overbought for a long time before an eventual correction)
A risk-on year for assets more broadly has dragged BTC up with it, taking it past the established pattern
A larger market cap makes it harder to continue expanding exponentially as the market matures. BTC's market cap is $1.8t right now.
There is diminishing marginal demand—those already interested in BTC have bought in, reducing the pool of potential buyers
The Fear and Greed index has already reached levels see in previous peaks, like 2021
The feverishness surrounding meme coins is reminiscent of previous bubbles, like the ICO bubble and Dotcom bubble
Discussion
I think there are strong arguments to be made on both sides.
On one hand, it's true that it really might be different this time around. There's certainly more institutional adoption and regulatory clarity than ever before, with Trump even talking about a strategic Bitcoin reserve. There weren't Bitcoin ETFs in previous cycles, and the halving pattern suggests a peak usually around 1-1.5 years later; it's only been 8 months since the halving in April.
While the dollar will likely get stronger under Trump (potentially weakening BTC), there is the argument that weakening purchasing power in many countries is driving entities towards 'hard' assets, like gold, silver, and Bitcoin.
Then there is the room for more retail investors to participate, given search results for ' Bitcoin ' and ' buy Bitcoin ' are lower than previous highs (though I will note that 2021 was also lower than 2017). Lastly, while the Rainbow chart does show diminishing peaks, it does suggest we could still hit 'Is this a bubble?' or higher.
On the other hand, this recent run to $100k+ was mostly fueled by Trump's election win and his backing of crypto-friendly Paul Atkins for SEC chair. BTC jumped from around $69k on the day of the election—a bit above the top projected by the factor decrease pattern—and Trump's win may have temporarily distorted the pattern.
It is also possible that the market is reaching maturity. Assuming that BTC will move to $250k in 2025 as some predict, its market cap would be around $4.9t. That would put it above Apple's market cap of $3.775t but still decently below gold's $17.6t .
However, there's a reason gold is the most valuable asset in the world by market cap: it has historical, cultural, and social significance. Its durability and lustre meant it was used to decorate temples in ancient times and as a symbol of divinity. Over time, that led to it being valued as currency in ancient empires and eventually backing the dollar.
In contrast, Bitcoin is relatively young; while feasible that it could eventually overtake gold and still remarkable that it's achieved such a large market cap in around 15 years, it does beg the question if $250k would be too far, too soon. After all, central banks are hoarding gold right now, not Bitcoin.
This ties in with the reducing marginal demand for BTC. Those who already believe in its potential have bought in; while the number of participants is likely to go up over time, there don't seem to be many catalysts for many more to join in the near-term (besides rumours of a strategic BTC reserve).
2017 was the first time BTC really went mainstream. Alongside relatively low interest rates and a weak dollar, FOMO drove the rally; BTC jumped more than 20x that year. 2021 was similar; cheap money, pandemic boredom, a broader awareness of crypto, and FOMO, pushed BTC to new ATHs.
Looking ahead to 2025, there appear to be more bearish catalysts than bullish. Most notable is a Fed worried about inflation and whether it's appropriate to pause easing of rate cuts ( Deutsche Bank expects no cuts in 2025 , which while a bit extreme, is indication of the current state of affairs). At the time of writing, that's already pushed BTC down to GETTEX:92K from $108k.
There is a US stock market that has risen over 60% since the start of 2023, compared to an average annual return of around 10-11% since 1980. There's also the promise of inflationary tariffs, discretionary spending cuts, rising yields, etc. all of which are the opposite of bullish signals.
Combined with the Fear and Greed index hitting 94 in November (just under the 95 peak in early 2021, late 2021 saw peaks of 74) and extraordinary runup in memecoins recently—Fartcoin is worth $1.25 billion right now, up from $40 million at the end of October—the vibes are feeling a bit toppy.
Conclusion
In my opinion and on the balance of probabilities, the combination of the currently-overextended diminishing returns pattern and the fundamental factors described skews Bitcoin bearish from here.
There are certainly many counter-arguments to be made and I respect the fact that markets can stay irrational for a long, long time and I could be completely wrong (along with the fact I have my own biases). But, I do think it's at least difficult for me to be bullish or buy into Bitcoin here. The risk-reward isn't great; maybe a 2x is achievable, and that also possibly explains a lack of further retail interest and the pump in meme coins recently.
As an aside, it's interesting that this pattern would theoretically continue to produce diminishing returns until
the multiplier eventually reaches near-zero. I don't think that would be how it works in reality, but it does indicate that Bitcoin could reach a ceiling as cycles continue. Does that imply the pattern has to break at some point, or that there is a true 'natural' high for BTC?
I'd be interested to hear your thoughts. Thanks for reading.
Disclaimer:
This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. The author is not responsible for any financial losses incurred based on this information. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are based on current data and analysis, which may not be accurate or complete. Always conduct your own research.
Bitcoin Update.The price is in the ascending channel and rejected near the top.
Watching $77K–$85K FVG as key support.
Bullish target: $108K
Break below FVG risks a deeper drop.
Bullish or bearish next?
Market Correction: Key Support Levels and Strategic OpportunitieThe market has experienced a decline over the past few days, leading to the liquidation of leveraged long positions and the introduction of new liquidity.
This may represent a healthy correction within the context of the broader market trend, which remains firmly upward.
As such, the optimal strategy continues to be to buy on dips.
Key levels to monitor include the strong support area around 84,500, with additional support at the 73,000 level.
While these support levels may not be reached, it is wise to stay alert for potential buying opportunities if the market approaches them.
Take care!
BTC Bear Flag ContinuationBTC has broken out of its upwards channel and is looking to make further downsides with a bear flag in play now it seems COINBASE:BTCUSD
BITCOIN | IF DECLINE GOES DEEPERThe possibility of a deepening decline appears serious, and it’s essential to stay prepared for such scenarios. I have identified my hedge short levels at the red boxes, which I consider key areas for managing risk and capitalizing on potential downward movements.
Monitoring these levels closely will be crucial to adapting effectively to the market's evolving structure.
I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions.
My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all, but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups.
My Previous Analysis
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Bitcoin's road to 150,000 Bitcoin Halving 2024: A New Era
The fourth Bitcoin halving, expected on April 15, 2024, will cut the block reward to 3.125 BTC, increasing scarcity and reinforcing its deflationary nature. Historically, halving cycles drive three phases: a bullish uptrend in the first 70,000 blocks, a bearish retracement in the next 70,000, and sideways consolidation before the next halving. This cycle points to a potential peak of $150,000, supported by historical trends, logarithmic regression, and metrics like the MVRV ratio.
Current Market Position
Bitcoin has emerged from the sideways phase of the third halving era (2020–2024) and is poised for a bullish run. The MVRV ratio, currently at 2.24, signals fair value, with room for growth. Historical patterns show Bitcoin dominance surges above 70% during bullish phases, supporting price appreciation.
Halving Cycles and Projections
Bitcoin's logarithmic regression model aligns with these price phases:
Bullish Phase (0–70,000 blocks): Exponential growth; projected high of $150,000.
Bearish Phase (70,000–140,000 blocks): Retracement of 80%, with lows around $55,000.
Sideways Phase (140,000–210,000 blocks): Consolidation before the next cycle.
MVRV Ratio Insights
The MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value) serves as a key valuation tool:
MVRV > 3.7: Overbought, market tops.
MVRV < 1: Undervalued, market bottoms. The current reading of 2.24 reflects equilibrium, signaling potential upside.
Timeline Overview
April 2024 (Halving): Demand rises, supply tightens, sparking bullish momentum.
2025–2026: Peak at $150,000 as the bullish phase matures.
Post-Bullish Phase: Retracement to $55,000, consistent with historical patterns.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s cyclical dynamics, driven by halving mechanisms, position it uniquely in financial markets. Historical data and on-chain metrics suggest a bullish trajectory to $150,000, with an 80% drawdown to $55,000 post-peak. While short-term volatility remains, Bitcoin’s long-term appeal as a store of value persists.
Disclaimer: This analysis is educational and not financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are volatile, and past performance does not predict future results.
Sources
Coin Metrics
CryptoQuant
TradingView Data Analysis
BTC - 4H Buy Scalp position.This could be a promising opportunity to buy Bitcoin. The ascending channel remains intact, and we might see a rise to at least the $102K pivot zone or beyond. A strong setup for a buy position!
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Bitcoin Dips to $96K Amid MARA and Hut 8’s Major Accumulation SpBitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ), the flagship cryptocurrency, faced a notable price dip to $96,300, reflecting a 6% decline over the past 24 hours. Despite this, significant institutional purchases by MARA Holdings and Hut 8 highlight the growing confidence in Bitcoin's long-term potential.
Institutional Accumulation on the Rise
MARA recently purchased 15,574 BTC at an average price of $98,529 per Bitcoin, totaling $1.53 billion. This acquisition, financed through zero-coupon convertible notes, has increased their holdings to 44,394 BTC, worth $4.45 billion at current prices.
MARA’s year-to-date BTC yield stands at an impressive 60.9%, underscoring their strategic accumulation approach.
Another institutional player, Hut 8, announced the purchase of 990 BTC for $100 million. These acquisitions demonstrate that major players view current prices as an attractive entry point, reinforcing Bitcoin's narrative as a store of value.
Market Sentiment and Activity
Despite the dip, CryptoQuant reports no signs of widespread panic selling. This indicates resilience among market participants, with many holding firm in anticipation of a rebound. Additionally, Bitcoin remains 4.59% up in December and 60% up over the past four months, reflecting its strong performance in the broader macroeconomic environment.
Technical Analysis
1. Relative Strength Index (RSI):
Bitcoin’s RSI currently sits at 35, signaling oversold conditions. Historically, such levels have often preceded a price rebound.
2. Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
Immediate support is observed at the 65% Fibonacci retracement level, a critical zone that could stabilize the price. However, persistent selling pressure might push Bitcoin lower, with potential targets at:
- $90,000 (1-month low)
- $80,000 (key psychological level)
3. Volume and Liquidations:
Over $100 million in liquidations occurred in the last 24 hours, suggesting significant market volatility.
Short-Term Outlook
While the dip has raised concerns, Bitcoin's fundamentals remain strong, bolstered by robust institutional demand. The oversold technical conditions and significant support levels suggest a potential recovery in the coming days. However, traders should remain cautious, as further dips could occur if broader market conditions deteriorate.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s dip to $96K reflects short-term volatility, but the sustained interest from institutional players like MARA and Hut 8 underscores its long-term potential. As market sentiment stabilizes, Bitcoin could see renewed bullish momentum, making this an opportune moment for investors to assess their strategies.
BTC took support from 97900, indicating strong weekly support Bitcoin's recent price action has showcased a significant level of support at **$97,900**, which many analysts and traders are closely monitoring. This level not only marks a psychological barrier but also aligns with key technical indicators that suggest a bullish outlook for the cryptocurrency.
### Current Market Context
As of December 19, 2024, Bitcoin is trading around **$98,686.86**, having recently tested the **$97,900** support level. This price point has been reinforced by the **50-day moving average**, which adds credence to its strength as a support zone . The recent movement indicates that Bitcoin is attempting to consolidate above this critical threshold, potentially setting the stage for a rally towards the **$100,000** mark.
### Technical Indicators
1. **Fibonacci Levels**: Bitcoin has surpassed the **50% Fibonacci retracement level** at approximately **$83,592**, and is now eyeing the **78.6% level**, which exceeds **$100,000**. Analysts suggest that if Bitcoin can maintain its position above **$97,900**, it could catalyze further upward momentum towards these Fibonacci targets.
2. **Market Value-to-Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio**: The MVRV ratio currently stands at **2.56**, indicating that there is still room for growth before reaching historical peaks. This metric has historically been a reliable predictor of market tops and suggests that Bitcoin could continue to appreciate in value.
3. **Relative Strength Index (RSI)**: While the RSI indicates overbought conditions, suggesting a potential short-term pullback, it also reflects strong bullish sentiment as Bitcoin approaches significant resistance levels.
Potential Outlook
If Bitcoin successfully holds above the **$97,900** support level and breaks through the **$100,000** psychological barrier, it could trigger a broader market rally, potentially pushing prices towards **$110,000** as institutional interest and retail participation increase . However, traders should remain vigilant about potential corrections; some analysts predict a possible drop back to around **$85,000** if profit-taking occurs after hitting the $100K milestone
BTC SHORT TO $94,760Finally some clarity from BTC, well worth sitting on our hands for a short period. We created a short term down trend with multiple confirmations (SMA break and rejection, LL's & LH's etc) a retracement back to the golden ratio and a rejection from a major key level has resulted in some bearish momentum for BTC and all correlated markets.
We'll se how this plays out as exhaustion will play some restriction in the momentum BTC can hold although i do think the target / 61.8% retracement level will be met of $94,760
Also currently waiting on BTC to produce a new LL on the 1H time frame so lets see how that pans out. I have moved stop to $11,065 to lock in 1.5% as we've been out the market for a few days.
P.S, sorry slightly late on posting this idea
BTC - 1H a Pullback scalp with RSI RSI divergence at the top of the ascending channel hints BINANCE:BTCUSDT may hunt liquidity at lower levels before tomorrow’s FOMC news.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
BTC - 1H Quick scalp opportunityIn this falling wave, BTC has made a slight correction, presenting a great chance for a quick sell. I'm targeting a swift drop.
Stay tuned for updates! 🎯💹
Navigating the Current Market Turbulence: A Crypto and Stock MarBitcoin is currently trading at approximately $102,200, reflecting a decrease of 2.36% over the last week. Despite a brief rally reaching highs of $108,367.38, the digital currency has faced selling pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 65, indicating that BTC might still be overbought, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggests bearish momentum could persist.
Investors should be cautious as the market shows signs of volatility. For cryptocurrencies, monitoring RSI and MACD indicators can provide insights into potential buying opportunities.
Bitcoin: Hold now, buy laterHello,
Bitcoin is a clear uptrend as the price is above the moving averages, as the picture on the left side of the chart shows. Technical indicators like Ultimate Oscillator, ADX, MOM, and MACD are bullish. However, RSI indicators are overbought, which means Bitcoin might go higher, but there'll be a better time to buy when the market corrects the overbought conditions. I hold my Bitcoins, but I won't buy any more until the upcoming correction, which might come soon.
Regards,
Ely
Bitcoin Likely to See Slow and Choppy Price ActionBitcoin has re-entered the range zone between $99,108 and $103,033, suggesting that we may experience slow and choppy price action in the coming days.
1. For now, Bitcoin has established support at $99,108, which could lead to increased bullish momentum toward the upper boundary of the range at $103,033. This move could occur from the current price level or after a dip back to $99,108 (dashed green projection).
2. A strong breakout above $103,033 with sustained momentum would turn Bitcoin bullish on the 4-hour chart and could set the stage for a rally toward $107,658, the next significant resistance zone (solid green projection).
3. If Bitcoin fails to hold support at $99,108 and breaks below this level, the chart would turn bearish (dashed red projection). The bulls’ last line of defense is at $97,000. A breach below this level could lead to intensified bearish pressure, driving the price toward the $94,500 support zone (solid red projection).
Consolidation within the $99,108 to $103,033 range, with Bitcoin maintaining a moderately bullish bias, could create favorable conditions for Altcoins to perform well.
Bitcoin Bubble Is Bitcoin Heading for a Bubble Burst in 2025?
Bitcoin’s price movements have historically followed a predictable 4-year cycle, driven by its halving events. These halvings, which cut mining rewards by half, have consistently triggered parabolic bull runs, followed by significant corrections. Past cycles demonstrate this pattern clearly: the 2012 halving led to a massive rally in 2013, only to be followed by an 80% crash in 2014; the 2016 halving fueled the 2017 rally to $20,000, followed by an 85% correction in 2018; and the 2020 halving saw Bitcoin peak at $69,000 in 2021, before a sharp downturn in 2022. As the next halving approaches in 2024, many traders and investors are questioning whether history will repeat itself, with a potential “bubble burst” looming in 2025.
Adding to this, recent comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have raised concerns about the broader macroeconomic environment, which could contribute to speculative bubbles forming. Powell has hinted at potential risks of overextended financial markets, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a “higher for longer” stance on interest rates. This policy could dampen liquidity and speculative growth, which often fuels Bitcoin’s parabolic rallies. Powell’s warnings signal that Bitcoin could face heightened risk of a sharp correction if valuations become unsustainable.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin currently shows signs of forming a bearish flag pattern on higher timeframes. This pattern, if confirmed, suggests a potential breakdown and retracement to key support zones. Historical data shows that Bitcoin often retraces 50%-80% of its bull market gains during bear markets. If Bitcoin reaches a speculative peak in late 2024 or early 2025—potentially exceeding $120,000—a correction of this magnitude could bring it back to $70,000 or lower, aligning with past market behaviors.
The $70,000 level could act as a crucial support zone, as it represents a psychological threshold and a region of high trading volume from the 2021 bull market. However, if macroeconomic factors such as rising interest rates, regulatory pressures, or liquidity constraints intensify, Bitcoin could even breach this level temporarily, much like it did during previous cycles when fear dominated the market.
While Bitcoin’s fundamentals have improved due to increased institutional adoption, Bitcoin ETFs, and its role as a hedge against inflation, traders must remain cautious. With speculative mania likely to drive Bitcoin to new highs post-halving, the risk of a significant correction by mid-to-late 2025 remains high. If the bearish flag confirms and Powell’s warnings materialize, Bitcoin revisiting the $70,000 level could become a reality.
Bitcoin | First Line of DefenseBitcoin's first line of defense lies within the blue boxes, marking potential areas of interest. However, there are currently no significant demand zones, making it more prudent to wait for upside breakouts on lower timeframes before considering a buyer's position.
Given the uncertainty around the depth of the ongoing correction, it's wise to maintain some cash reserves to adapt to market movements effectively. Patience and careful observation will be key in navigating this phase.
I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions.
My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all, but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups.
My Previous Analysis
🐶 DOGEUSDT.P: Next Move
🎨 RENDERUSDT.P: Opportunity of the Month
💎 ETHUSDT.P: Where to Retrace
🟢 BNBUSDT.P: Potential Surge
📊 BTC Dominance: Reaction Zone
🌊 WAVESUSDT.P: Demand Zone Potential
🟣 UNIUSDT.P: Long-Term Trade
🔵 XRPUSDT.P: Entry Zones
🔗 LINKUSDT.P: Follow The River
📈 BTCUSDT.P: Two Key Demand Zones
🟩 POLUSDT: Bullish Momentum
🌟 PENDLEUSDT.P: Where Opportunity Meets Precision
🔥 BTCUSDT.P: Liquidation of Highly Leveraged Longs
🌊 SOLUSDT.P: SOL's Dip - Your Opportunity
🐸 1000PEPEUSDT.P: Prime Bounce Zone Unlocked
🚀 ETHUSDT.P: Set to Explode - Don't Miss This Game Changer
🤖 IQUSDT: Smart Plan
⚡️ PONDUSDT: A Trade Not Taken Is Better Than a Losing One
💼 STMXUSDT: 2 Buying Areas
🐢 TURBOUSDT: Buy Zones and Buyer Presence
🌍 ICPUSDT.P: Massive Upside Potential | Check the Trade Update For Seeing Results
🟠 IDEXUSDT: Spot Buy Area | %26 Profit if You Trade with MSB
📌 USUALUSDT: Buyers Are Active
BTC ABOUT TO DUMP?The daily time frame candle from yesterday provides a significant reversal indication. on the monthly and weekly there is also clear exhaustion being shown representing positions being liquidated.
The bears could potentially take over very soon for a bear market as we enter into 2025.
#BTCUSD BTC/USD Long Projection: Anticipating bullish momentum as key support levels hold strong. Eyes on potential breakout targets—stay ahead of the trend!..
BTC at a Crossroads: Will We Crash to 50K or Blast Off to 117K?BTC Update
Hey team, here’s the scoop on Bitcoin right now. We’re at a key level, and the next move could set the tone. Let’s break it down:
If BTC drops below 103,445, we could see a dip to 80–85K. If the pressure keeps building, it might even slide to 50–53K.
But if BTC breaks above 108K, we could rally to 117K before things cool off again.
Trading can feel uncertain, but it’s all about being prepared. No matter what happens, trust your plan, stay patient, and take it step by step. You’ve got this!
By the way, if you’re curious about how to balance trading and wellness—or just want to chat about trading mindset—send me a DM. Let’s win together, on and off the charts.
What’s your take—are we heading up or down from here?
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Actual Bitcoin Cycle!!!This is the possible count for the current BTC cycle; we should see a correction in this zone according to the sub-trend before resuming toward new highs near 142k.
