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TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #8👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro! Let's delve into the Bitcoin analysis. Today is Monday, the start of the week, so let's check out the weekly and daily timeframes for Bitcoin to see what happened last week and how the weekly candle closed. 📅 Weekly Timeframe The scenario I mentioned before still stands in the weekly timeframe. If the price stabilizes below 93,419, we can expect further corrections. The initial correction targets remain at 82,000 and then 71,000, which are still relevant. 🔍 On the other hand, if the ATH area, which is a resistance at 105,000 in the weekly timeframe, is broken, the price could start its next bullish leg. If this resistance breaks, I will update the analysis as usual and include Bitcoin’s next ATH targets. 📊 The market volume is still decreasing. The candles are also becoming smaller and smaller. As you can see, last week's candle hardly showed any fluctuation, indicating very minimal price range. ✨ That covers everything for the Bitcoin analysis in the weekly timeframe. Since the RSI hasn't activated any triggers yet, it's better to move on to the daily timeframe to see what has happened there over the past seven days. 📅 Daily Timeframe The main supports and resistances in the daily timeframe are at 92,470 and 106,212, unchanged from last week. 🧩 However, the change is in the support at 96,312, which I mentioned last week could be a good area for the price to form a higher low and move towards the ceiling. This support has slightly shifted and is now at 95,601, which is still a significant support for the price. If supported at this level, and if it forms a higher low relative to 92,470, the price could move towards the ceiling of 106,200. In this case, if it can form a higher ceiling, the likelihood of breaking 106,212 will increase. 🔼 The early trigger for opening a long position that we discussed last week worked out well, and in the daily timeframe, if the price can stabilize above 98,061, we can expect it to form a higher low and move towards the main resistance at 106,212. 💥 The market volume, as I mentioned in previous analyses, has decreased significantly and has reached its minimal possible state. When the market volume decreases, the chart can move more easily. So, again, as I mentioned in the previous analysis, be ready behind the chart in these few days because movements after such low-volume ranges can be very volatile and can help you open profitable positions. ⚡️ Now that we've reviewed the weekly and daily timeframes, let's move on to lower timeframes and identify suitable futures triggers. ⏳ 4-Hour Timeframe We have an expanding triangle in the four-hour timeframe, and the price has been reacting well to it. Yesterday, it was rejected from the triangle's ceiling, which could have provided a good position. I will show you this position in the one-hour timeframe. 👀 The support at 95,108 remains very important, and I suggest that if the price reaches this area and you want to break it, have a short position ready. For long positions, I still believe that the triangle's trendline must be broken from above, and in that case, the triggers at 98,482 and 99,946 would be suitable. 🚀 The first target for these positions, as a scalp, is 101,819, and their main target is 105,928. The short position target could be the bottom of the triangle or the area at 92,702. 🔑 The market volume has increased slightly in this timeframe. As you see, and as I mentioned yesterday, after the volume reaches its minimum, the price will definitely make a move in one direction, which I will specify in the one-hour timeframe how we could have taken our position. ⏳ 1-Hour Timeframe Let's move to the one-hour timeframe. First, I want to review the position the market gave us yesterday, and then we'll see what today's trigger will be. 🔄 About an hour after I published the analysis yesterday, the support at 97,110 broke, and with this break, we could have opened a short position that could still remain open, and I suggest you make it risk-free because, as I said yesterday, this position is very risky and the maximum target we can consider for it is 95,308. 📈 However, I personally would save the profit and not allow it to remain open any longer because it was opened as a scalp. The trigger for the long position at 97,816 was not reached and was not activated. 🔽 But today, I don't have a special trigger for a short position, and 95,108 is the only trigger that we were waiting for last week to be broken, but this did not happen. Here in the market volume, we can see in more detail that after breaking the 97,110 area, it increased significantly, and currently, with the price starting to range again, the market volume has decreased again. ✅ For long positions, first wait for the price to return above 97,110 and see which area it reacts to, and we can specify our next trigger tomorrow. But if the price comes up unidirectionally, you can open a short position with the breaking of 97,816 or 98,482. 🧲 Be careful because the price moved a bit yesterday, it might range today. So make sure you only open positions with triggers you are sure about, not risky triggers. 📅 BTC.D Analysis Let's move on to Bitcoin dominance. We specified a very good resistance for Bitcoin dominance yesterday at 60.95, and as you see, Bitcoin dominance reacted very well to it, hitting this area several times with a shadow point and then dropping again, and it is now back to its support at 60.48, which is very important. If 60.48 breaks, the dominance could drop to 59.84, as mentioned in previous analyses, and in this case, if short positions are activated, their triggers within Bitcoin could allow us to open a very good short position on Bitcoin. 💣 But if at the same time as the activation of these triggers, the dominance increases and the resistance of 60.95 breaks, short positions on altcoins would be better than on Bitcoin. 📅 Total2 Analysis Let's move on to the Total2 analysis to see what suitable triggers will be for opening positions on altcoins. 🛎 The Total2 trigger was activated yesterday as you see at 1.24, which I said you could open a position with it riskily. However, as you see, the price has engulfed all the downward movements and returned up. However, I had said that this position was to be opened riskily and as a scalp, and if you opened a position with the trigger, quickly close your position. 📚 However, as you saw, Bitcoin still has a better bearish structure compared to Total2, and the reason is that Bitcoin dominance was bearish simultaneously with breaking the bearish areas, and if you had opened a position on Bitcoin, you would have made more profit, and now the position would still be open, but Total2 has returned all its upward movement and seems to want to form an upward structure. For now, I won’t change the 1.24 area and want to see what structure the price creates today and which ceiling it reacts to, and tomorrow I will change the location of this area for you. 📉 For short positions, you can open a position with the breaking of 1.23, but be aware, as you saw yesterday, altcoins did not drop much compared to Bitcoin, so if Bitcoin dominance is rising, you can open positions on altcoins. Otherwise, if the dominance is bearish, the short position you open on Bitcoin will give more profit. 📅 USDT.D Analysis Yesterday’s trigger for Tether dominance at 4.48 was activated, and Tether dominance had an upward move or leg, which was not very strong in terms of upward momentum and does not seem to be continuing. 💫 We can draw a trend line in this chart that the price has currently hit and seems to have been rejected. In this case, if the 4.48 area, which is now acting as support, is broken again, the price could drop to 4.24. Otherwise, if the price can break the downward trendline, we can expect Tether dominance to move up to 4.62. ❌ Disclaimer ❌ Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel. Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
by tradecitypro
5
Weekend is coming - another liquidation coming? BTC strongly bounced Monday and formed a daily candle with a massive bottom wick.  It is a bullish candle but that itself doesn't confirm the bull trend is going to start.  It was definitely the buy the dip moment for spot buyers and hodlers. However, if people are trading, the obvious stop of Stop/Loss is just below that wick on the Monday candle.  Subsequent daily candles failed to close above 100K.   All daily momentum indicators are entering the bear zone. Now the price is steadily moving down. Weekend is coming.  I can see another perfect setup for the long liquidation event.    I hope I am wrong. I think the next few weeks are critical for the BTC bull.  Weekly MACD is touching but hasn't crossed yet, so I will continue to observe the price action. If MACD lines clearly cross to the downside and stochastic has entered the bear zone. I would consider opening a short position.  I will use a daily chart to identify an entry. It has been a very challenging market.
C
by EbonyFalcon
LiteCoin LTC for the Run? Looking for a x3 on this oneHi Guys, hope you are doing great! This would be an amazing week, let´s go for it. As you can see here on the (2W) chart, LTC has been in accumulation for 1.000 days. The last 2 times it happened, it finished on a break out, but the first one was amazing compared to the one on 2020. I have some reasons to believe this one could be more like the first break out than the second, this is similar to what happend with $XRP. Also on the 1D chart, you can see a Wyckoff structure that wants to break, if it´s a breakout to the long side, I will buy the 75% I left to buy more. Have a good week and let´s continue watching it.
CRYPTO:LTCUSDLong
by PickleBiit
3
ALT SEASON IS COMINGWouldn't this be the perfect outcome? something many aren't seeing anymore at this point. One thing i've been noticing is that social behavior is massively changing and people are litteraly stcuk in the trenches and hating on each other for being bullish or bearish which is basically the type of behavior like what we had in 2020 during COVID. I overall remain bullish and don't see any reason why i shouldn't be. All the fundamentals are in our favor and AUM's are filing for ETF for alts left and right which means a requests to inject BILLIONS in capital into them. Time will tell of course but i overall remain bullish untill proven different. CRYPTO IS UNDER. VALUED.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2Long
by ammardeey
DEVIATON INJIt looks like we have a deviation below the demand zone and the $13.8 support, which could present a buying opportunity. I’m waiting to see if the price finds support around $14.4. If the price drops below $14 and stays there for an extended period, I’ll reassess the trade, as we could see another leg down toward the $8-$11 zone, where stronger support is likely. For now, the weekly oscillators look decent—Stoch RSI is close to a bullish cross, and RSI has found support at 40.
BINANCE:INJUSDLong
by BOT721
2
Bitcoin's Path to $100k USD&beyond - How much time is left?Don’t worry—we’re not here to debate whether the bull market top is in or still ahead. Based on cycle analysis, one thing is clear: Bitcoin is set to break $100K soon and continue its upward trajectory. But the real question is: How much time do we have left? Can we still make gains until the end of the year, or will March/April be the final window to profit? 🔹 Bitcoin’s Current Position BTC is approaching its 60-day cycle low, with the 1-day, 3-day, and 1-week cycles all dipping below 20. We’re waiting for the final bottom to form—historically, these moments offer some of the best buying opportunities. 🔸 Two Possible Scenarios Ahead: 1️⃣ Bull Market Peak in May 2025 The upcoming 2-week cycle top marks the end of the bull market (~May). The 2-week cycle typically takes ~14 weeks to reach a peak, aligning with a late-May timeline. After this, a 1.5-year bear market (~18 months) could begin, correcting the excess of this cycle. 2️⃣ Final Top in December/January The market peaks at year-end, followed by a 12-month bear market. This means a bloody summer, then a fast & bullish upside in Oct/Nov leading to a final peak. This aligns with historical seasonality of previous cycles. 📌 Conclusion: No matter which scenario plays out, the key is to maximize gains before the cycle peaks and exit before the bear market begins. 📈 Watch for the 60-day cycle bottom—this will be the key entry point. Which scenario do you think will play out? Let me know in the comments! 👇🚀
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by TheStrategyMaster
1
#Bitcoin's long-term road plan!-396 days Processed Between 2013 High and 2015 Bottom! -365 days Processed Between 2017 High and 2018 Bottom! -365 days Processed Between 2021 High and 2022 Bottom! -1065 days processed between 2015 Bottom and 2017 Peak! -1065 days processed between 2018 Bottom and 2021 Peak! -1430 days Processed Between 2015 Bottom and 2018 Bottom! -1430 days Processed Between 2018 Bottom and 2022 Bottom! If the 1065 model is processed between 2022 Bottom and 2025 Peak, I think we will see a local peak in October. If the 365 days Model is processed, I think we will see a 2025 Peak in October and a 2026 October Bottom. I will be grateful if you appreciate...
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by EtherNasyonaL
1
BTC still can reach 123kBITSTAMP:BTCUSD my previous Idea on BTC is still reliable! take a look! the price is still in the triangle and the pattern has not been lost so I guess we can see BTC at 123K! ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always manage your risks and trade responsibly. 👉 Follow me for daily updates, 💬 Comment and like to share your thoughts, 📌 And check the link in my bio for even more resources! Let’s navigate the markets together—join the journey today! 💹✨
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by CRYPTONIC_trend
Can Bitcoin Survive the Inflation Storm?Bitcoin, the world's most prominent cryptocurrency, has experienced a turbulent period, recently dipping below the $95,000 mark.1 This price correction comes amidst growing concerns about rising inflation in the United States, as reflected in the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The CPI, a key indicator of inflation, surpassed market expectations, reigniting fears of persistent price pressures and their potential impact on risk assets like Bitcoin.2 Inflation's Shadow Over Bitcoin The unexpectedly high CPI reading has sent ripples through financial markets, with investors becoming increasingly wary of the Federal Reserve's response to inflation. The Fed's primary tool for combating inflation is raising interest rates, a move that can make borrowing more expensive and potentially slow down economic growth. This prospect often leads investors to reduce their exposure to riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. The connection between inflation and Bitcoin is complex. While some argue that Bitcoin can serve as a hedge against inflation due to its limited supply, others believe that it is still too volatile to be considered a safe haven asset. The recent price drop suggests that market sentiment is currently leaning towards the latter view, with investors reacting to the inflation news by selling off their Bitcoin holdings. Market Dynamics and Technical Levels Bitcoin's price movements are influenced by a multitude of factors, including macroeconomic trends, regulatory developments, and market sentiment. In addition to inflation concerns, the recent price drop could also be attributed to normal market corrections, profit-taking by traders, and technical factors. Analyzing Bitcoin's price chart reveals key support and resistance levels that traders are closely monitoring. The $95,000 level appears to be a crucial support zone, and a sustained break below this level could lead to further price declines. On the upside, the $101,000 mark is a significant resistance level, and a decisive move above this level could signal a potential recovery for Bitcoin. The Fed's Dilemma and Potential Scenarios The latest CPI data presents a challenge for the Federal Reserve, which is tasked with balancing the goals of controlling inflation and maintaining economic growth. While the higher-than-expected inflation reading might suggest the need for more aggressive interest rate hikes, the Fed also needs to be mindful of the potential impact on economic activity. Despite calls for lower interest rates, the Fed is widely expected to continue its path of gradual rate increases in the coming months. The central bank has repeatedly emphasized its commitment to bringing inflation under control, and a strong labor market provides further support for its policy stance. Looking ahead, several scenarios could play out for Bitcoin. If inflation remains elevated, the Fed might need to take more aggressive action, potentially leading to further price declines for Bitcoin. On the other hand, if inflation starts to subside, the Fed could adopt a more dovish stance, which could provide some relief for Bitcoin and other risk assets. Bitcoin's Long-Term Outlook Despite the recent price volatility, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains positive for many market participants. The cryptocurrency's underlying technology, blockchain, continues to attract interest from various industries, and the adoption of Bitcoin by institutional investors is steadily increasing.3 Furthermore, some argue that Bitcoin's decentralized nature and limited supply make it an attractive alternative to traditional currencies, especially in times of economic uncertainty. While Bitcoin's price can be volatile in the short term, its long-term potential continues to draw investors seeking exposure to the digital asset space. Navigating the Uncertainty The current market environment is characterized by uncertainty, with inflation concerns and macroeconomic factors weighing on investor sentiment. Bitcoin, like other risk assets, is susceptible to these broader market trends. However, it is essential to remember that Bitcoin is a nascent asset class, and its price volatility is to be expected. Investors considering Bitcoin should carefully assess their risk tolerance and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. While Bitcoin's long-term potential remains intriguing, it is crucial to be aware of the inherent risks associated with investing in cryptocurrencies.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bryandowningqln
Bitcoin Dips to $94K Amid Hotter-Than-Expected US CPI DataThe cryptocurrency market experienced a sharp selloff following the release of the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which came in hotter than expected. Bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, fell by 3% to $94,000, reflecting the broader market’s reaction to rising inflation concerns. The January CPI data revealed a 3% year-over-year (YoY) increase, up from December’s 2.9%, while the monthly CPI rose to 0.5%, exceeding market expectations. This unexpected spike has reignited fears of a prolonged hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve, dampening investor sentiment across both traditional and crypto markets. Inflation Woes and Macroeconomic Pressures 1. Hotter-Than-Expected CPI Data The US Labor Department reported that the January CPI inflation rose to 3% YoY, surpassing the market consensus of 2.8%. On a monthly basis, inflation increased to 0.5%, up from December’s 0.4%. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also came in higher than expected at 0.4% monthly and 3.3% YoY. These figures indicate that inflationary pressures remain persistent, complicating the Federal Reserve’s path to rate cuts. 2. Federal Reserve’s Hawkish Stance The Federal Reserve has maintained a cautious approach to monetary policy, with Chair Jerome Powell emphasizing the need for more evidence of cooling inflation before considering rate cuts. The hotter CPI data has further solidified the Fed’s position, reducing the likelihood of near-term rate cuts. This has weighed heavily on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, as higher interest rates typically reduce liquidity and investor appetite for speculative investments. 3. Impact on Crypto Market Sentiment The crypto market has been highly sensitive to macroeconomic data, and the latest CPI release has exacerbated existing fears. The global crypto market cap fell by 3.3% to $3.1 trillion, with Bitcoin leading the decline. The US 10-year Treasury yield surged by 2.05% to 4.630%, while the US Dollar Index (DXY) rose by 0.42% to 108.290, adding further pressure on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Technical Analysis 1. Immediate Price Reaction Bitcoin’s price dropped sharply from $96,488 to $94,000 within minutes of the CPI data release. This decline reflects the market’s immediate reaction to the negative macroeconomic news. As of writing, Bitcoin is down 1.23%, trading near the oversold region with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 38. 2. Key Support and Resistance Levels - Support: If selling pressure persists, Bitcoin could test the $80,000 support level, a critical psychological and technical threshold. - Resistance: A breakout above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level could reignite bullish momentum, potentially pushing Bitcoin back toward the $100,000 mark. 3. Chart Patterns and Indicators Bitcoin’s price action is currently hovering near key moving averages, indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The RSI at 38 suggests that Bitcoin is nearing oversold territory, which could attract buyers looking for discounted entry points. However, the overall trend remains bearish in the short term, with the falling RSI and declining price action signaling caution. 4. Market Sentiment and Volume Trading volume has spiked following the CPI release, indicating heightened market activity. The increased volume during the selloff suggests that investors are reacting strongly to the macroeconomic data, with many opting to take profits or reduce exposure to risk assets. Conclusion: The latest US CPI data has underscored the crypto market’s sensitivity to macroeconomic developments, with Bitcoin and other digital assets experiencing significant volatility. While the short-term outlook remains uncertain, the long-term potential of Bitcoin and the broader crypto market remains intact.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by DEXWireNews
I see a bullish movement for BTC!BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Bitcoin is in the most boring symmetrical triangle ever! However It's cooking something! we can see a bullish Divergence on MACD and a possible bullish cross between MACD and Signal line! these are some bullish signs which makes me think that the price might be able to break out of the triangle and get up to 123k! (AB=CD) since we are at a bottom and the bullish trend line isn't lost yet, It might be a good point to enter! ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always manage your risks and trade responsibly. 👉 Follow me for daily updates, 💬 Comment and like to share your thoughts, 📌 And check the link in my bio for even more resources! Let’s navigate the markets together—join the journey today! 💹✨
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by CRYPTONIC_trend
BITCOIN CRASH BEST TRADE IDEA🔻 BTC/USDT Short Setup - 30M Analysis 🔻 Bitcoin has rejected a key resistance zone around $97,400-$97,550, showing signs of a bearish move. Price has failed to break above this supply area, and now a potential sell-off towards the sell-side liquidity range is in play. 🔹 Entry: Around $97,400 (Retest of resistance) 🔹 Stop Loss: $97,550 (Above supply zone) 🔹 Target: $94,725-$94,711 (Liquidity sweep level) 📉 Analysis Breakdown: ✅ Price is reacting to a well-defined supply zone. ✅ Bearish momentum increasing after liquidity grab. ✅ Confluence with 50 EMA rejecting price. ✅ High probability of price reaching liquidity range. Watching this trade closely—let me know your thoughts! 📊🔥 #Bitcoin #BTCUSDT #CryptoTrading #PriceAction #TradingView #CryptoSignals 🚀
Short
by naumanfx_
4
BTC ABOUT TO DUMP...Oh well, is this the BTC dump i've been waiting for... As we all know BTC has been consolidating for around 90 days now, an entire quarter. We broke the $100k mark but failed to really drive any higher and make any new significant highs, i wouldn't class anything under $110k a significant high. There is a trend line that has formed with 3 points of contact, confirming it's previous reliability until recently when we saw a spike dump from BTC from over $100k to around $80k. This spike broke through that trend line as well as some significant lows, breaking the stability and reliability of the support levels and the trend line. BTC is now currently retesting this trend line at around GETTEX:98K , this could be a vital moment for BTC and all the Alts. If BTC rejects this trend line and drops off, continuing to break the lows of $90k i do believe we could see some downward momentum catch on and BTC could well continue downwards to the $70k mark. I have been calling this for months now and hope it does happen as stated previously it gives us an incredible opportunity to load up our bags with BTC, but also with some good alts like XRP, SOL, BNB etc. Lets watch closely over the next few days and see how this plays out. I am not short on this yet but would consider a short if this rejection takes place clearly.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDShort
by h77nry
1
$30,000 drop or $30,000 rise ?!!!This wedge can change the market outcome. If Bitcoin cannot break this wedge from above, we will see a $30k price drop. If the price breaks this wedge from above, we will see a $30k price increase. Now that most traders are disheartened by the crypto market and are selling their assets cheaply, I suspect that the price will go up. Give me some energy !! ✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us. Best regards CobraVanguard.💚 _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟! ⚠️Things can change... The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CobraVanguard
9
CELO LONGCelo has bounced every time it touched the lower range around $0.40, usually reaching at least $0.25.However, given the current market conditions, I expect either more downside or a sideways movement in the next few days. The Stoch RSI is gearing up for a bullish cross on the weekly, but historically, the first cross is often followed by a negative one, before a second bullish cross that truly pushes the price higher. So while we might see some short-term upside, we should also be prepared for lower prices before a more significant rally kicks in.
Long
by BOT721
1
Bitcoin Yet To Recover Amidst February DipBitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) has yet to fully recover from its early February drop. The leading cryptocurrency remains colloquial, trading between $92,000 support and $102,200 resistance. This price variations posits a key contrast between digital and physical gold—while an ounce of gold trades at a relatively modest $3,000, Bitcoin fluctuates within a $10,000 price disparity. BTC’s future direction remains uncertain. If buyers gain strength and push the price above $100,000, Bitcoin could test new highs in the $102,200–$105,500 range, potentially extending its upward trend. However, a deeper correction could trigger a retest of the $93,000 support level, which would likely lead to a new local low within the $89,200–$92,000 range. Presently Up 1.02% with a moderate RSI of 44.90 a moderation largely attributed to Michael Saylor's 7,633 purchase of Bitcoin worth $742 million today. While the fear and greed index still remains at 35 this hints at a potential pull back might be inevitable.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by DEXWireNews
Market Update: Tariffs, Trade Shifts & Bitcoin's Next MoveCME:BTC1! News and Economic Calendar Update President Trump announced 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, effective Monday, with reciprocal tariffs to follow on Tuesday or Wednesday. As Trump has shared, “if they tax us, we tax them the same amount.” This move is expected to reshape global trade relations, with China reportedly considering probes into U.S. tech firms such as Broadcom (AVGO) and Synopsys (SNPS), according to WSJ. Japan's PM Ishiba remains optimistic about avoiding higher U.S. tariffs, while Australia and India are negotiating exemptions and trade concessions. Meanwhile, the EU has hinted at retaliatory measures should new tariffs be imposed. The U.S. dollar strengthened following Friday’s jobs report and fresh tariff announcements, while the Japanese yen under-performed. The EUR/USD briefly dipped below 1.03 before rebounding, and the British pound remained stable ahead of comments from BoE’s Mann. U.S. Treasury yields were unchanged, while European bunds edged higher amid rising trade concerns. Gold surged to an all-time high above $2,900/oz, reflecting increased demand for safe-haven assets due to tariff uncertainty. Meanwhile, crude oil reached session highs, and European natural gas prices climbed to a two-year peak due to colder temperatures and tight storage. Looking Ahead Key upcoming data releases include Fed Chair Powell’s testimony, U.S. CPI data, Chinese M2 Money Supply, and U.S. retail sales. Additionally, multiple central bank officials are scheduled to speak throughout the week, providing further insights into monetary policy direction. Macro Update: Trade War 2.0 and Tariff Shifts Impact Markets. The latest reciprocal tariff announcements from Trump, in our view, presents a strategic opportunity for the U.S. This approach enables negotiations for lower tariffs on U.S. exports with individual trading partners, fostering a more flexible and targeted trade policy. This shift aligns more with global trade integration and could provide a more balanced framework for U.S. exporters. Gold continues to exhibit renewed strength as a safe-haven asset, marking fresh all-time highs amid market uncertainty. Meanwhile, Bitcoin—often referred to as "digital gold"—has lagged behind, struggling in a climate of risk-off sentiment. However, it remains within its post-election trading range, signaling resilience despite broader market volatility. At the fiscal level, U.S. House Republican leaders are proposing federal spending cuts ranging between $2 trillion to $2.5 trillion, according to Punchbowl sources. These cuts are expected to focus heavily on Medicaid spending. However, the effectiveness of government spending adjustments remains in question—whether such measures will enhance efficiency or simply reduce overall spending is yet to be seen. In addition, extending President Trump’s tax proposals could cut revenue by $5-11T over a decade, potentially pushing U.S. debt to 132-149% of GDP by 2035. Senate Republicans propose $342B in border and defense spending, with offsetting cuts. Meanwhile, Musk’s DOGE Service aims to automate government functions, reduce the federal workforce, and slash spending. Bitcoin Big Picture: Bitcoin has been consolidating after making new all time highs post US elections. Although price action and consolidation points towards further bullishness. We remain cautious and prepared for any of the scenarios that may happen as a result of many different factors influencing risk assets and market sentiment. To better manage your exposure to Bitcoin, consider using CME’s Micro Bitcoin and Bitcoin Friday Futures . Additionally, you can take part in the CME and TradingView paper trading competition, allowing you to showcase your Micro Bitcoin trading skills in The Leap —risk-free. Key Levels to Watch Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan. Yearly Hi: 110,920 mCVAH: 104,400 Dec 2024 mid range: 101,570 Jan 2025 mid range: 100,610 mCVPOC: 98,075 mCVAL: 93,730 Key Bull Support: 92,505 - 90,000 Scenario 1: Further chop and acceptance In this scenario, we may see price action remain range bound. Traders look for clarity on how policy may affect market sentiment before further committing capital. Scenario 2: New ATHs Price attempts to create new ATHs which marks a significant move. Although bitcoin created new all time highs in January 2025, these were rejected and price action pointed towards market top. Scenario 3: Souring market sentiment Scenario 2 and 3 requires remaining alert to all developments as fundamental and macro news is turning ever so significant in driving short-term volatility and price action. Any further hint towards tighter monetary policy and tighter fiscal policy may send BTC prices lower very quickly.
CME:BTC1!
by EdgeClear