Rising Wedge Pattern Alert Bearish or Bullish for Bitcoin?In my last post, I shared a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, projecting a potential climb to $131,000 by 2025 if it maintains its current pattern of gradual climbs and pullbacks. However, I also highlighted a critical level $100,000. If Bitcoin faces rejection there, a 20% correction could bring prices down to $78,000.
Now, looking at the current chart, Bitcoin seems to be forming a rising wedge, a pattern often associated with bearish reversals. While the price is still trending upward, the converging trendlines suggest momentum may be weakening. This raises the possibility of a breakdown. But, there’s another side to this story.
Key Takeaways:
1️⃣ Bearish Scenario: If Bitcoin breaks below the wedge’s support line, we could see a sharp pullback. Based on the height of the wedge, the downside target could align closely with the $78,000 zone I mentioned earlier.
2️⃣ Bullish Scenario: If Bitcoin manages to break above the wedge’s resistance line with strong volume, it could invalidate this bearish pattern. This breakout could not only push Bitcoin toward the critical $100,000 level, but also open the doors to new all-time highs beyond $100,000. A sustained bullish momentum could fast-track Bitcoin’s trajectory to $131,000 or higher as early as 2025.
What to Watch:
🔹 Volume: Decreasing volume during this wedge formation may confirm a bearish breakdown, while a volume spike could signal a breakout.
🔹 Support and Resistance: Watch the wedge’s lower boundary for breakdowns or the upper boundary for breakouts.
🔹 RSI & Momentum: Overbought RSI levels could support a bearish case, while bullish divergence would favor upward momentum.
Bitcoin remains at a critical juncture, where the next major move will determine whether the bulls take us into uncharted territory or if the bears will temporarily seize control.
Either way, this is a pattern to watch closely. Stay tuned for updates as we monitor Bitcoin’s next steps! 📉📈
Bitcoinprice
Where are we in the Bitcoin Cycle?Let’s break it down:
1️⃣ 60-Day Cycle Count
2️⃣ Cycle Indicators
🧵👇
1️⃣ 60-Day Cycle 📆We’re on Day 20 of the cycle.
💡 Around this time, a small retracement to the mid-cycle low is normal. But here’s the bullish twist:
⚡ In bullish cycles, the mid-cycle low is HIGHER than:
The previous cycle low
Even the next cycle low
✅ Translation? We’re STILL climbing this cycle! 🚀 Expect upside in the next 1–2 weeks.
2️⃣ Cycle Indicators 📊The 2W, 1W, 3D, and 1D indicators just hit 80—a level that usually triggers a price drop.
⬇️ This marks the top of the 1W cycle and could signal some short-term cooling off.
Summary 🧠 🌱 Day 20 of a bullish cycle = Growth ahead. 🔔 Short-term pullbacks = Buying opportunities.
👀 Watch for continued upside over the next 1–2 weeks. Stay on the line.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #BTC #TradingView
BTC's Accumulation Phase: Identifying Cycles and Support ZonesH ello,
BTC has been in accumulation since spring this year. The white dotted lines show the accumulation curves. There are multiple cycles, each with a pump and a dump arm. The cycles might be different in size, but they share the green bottom support zone where large investors prefer to buy.
Bitcoin has a bullish cross signal from the MACD indicator at the bottom. However, the current price is far above EMA 20/50/100/200. Thus, a dip might manifest to correct the price per the EMAs. There's a high probability that players will buy the dip, though and the bull run can continue.
I wouldn't buy now because of the potential dip and because the price's at the falling trendline resistance. I aim for long positions, but I'd wait for a correction first and closely monitor how the price reacts around the falling resistance.
Regards,
Ely
Fetch.ai $FET/USDT - 200D SMA Bull Regime Detection
This indicator helps traders identify market regimes using the powerful combination of 50 and 200 SMAs. It provides clear visual signals and detailed metrics for trend-following strategies.
We've just had our bull regime print and are trading just 2 days of bull regime duration.
Golden cross incoming: 200D x 50D SMA crossover
Key Features:
- Dual SMA System (50/200) for regime identification
- Colour-coded candles for easy trend visualisation
- Metrics dashboard
Core Signals:
- Bullish Regime: Price < 200 SMA
- Bearish Regime: Price > 200 SMA
- Additional confirmation: 50 SMA Cross-over or Cross-under (golden cross or death cross)
Bitcoin Analysis Base On Eliott Wave Theor and Macro EconomicsBitcoin Projection
Base On Technical Analysis Eliott Wave Theory & Macro Economics
Target Price (Bullish Scenario) :
🔹$108.000 = Fibo Extend 1.272
🔹$134.000 = Fibo Extend 1.414
🔹$182.000 = Fibonacci Extend 1.618
INDEX:BTCUSD
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Be Careful :
🔹BTC might pullback before breaking out over $100K.
🔹BTC is now in the final Impulse Wave (Wave 5). When Wave 5 finishes, a deeper correction might happen
DISCLAIMER :
🔹BTC might pullback before breaking out over $100K.
🔹 Fibo Extend 1.618 is hard to visit, it'll take a while & need some corrections.
🔹Consider trailing TakeProfit in $108K-$134K (In case BTC successfully breakout from $100K)
🔹Be careful of unexpected bad news.
🔹Watch US inflation rates during The FED's rate cuts, as higher liquidity will boost purchasing power and impact inflation.
🔹ETF's Inflow have entered too much, one day hedge funds will taking profit, be careful !.
🔹Donald Trump's company tax cut policy will impact to inflation. If it happens, The FED might have to stop rate cuts, or even raise interest rates.
BTC H4 Descending Broadening WedgeBitcoin is currently trading within a Descending Broadening Wedge that appears to be completing and ready to flip bullish. RSI is 51 at time of publishing. Price action fell through the 50 sma and then recovered at the 100 sma. It then temporarily lost the 100 sma and recovered it. PA is currently sitting on the .5 extension.
The bottom of the price action has also formed a "v" recovery. I think this area is bottom.
Key levels to watch for after the breakout are marked with green horizontal lines and correspond to fib extensions.
Not financial advice. Do your own DD.
Thanks for viewing the idea.
Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Will It Break $96K or Pull Back to $90K"Bitcoin's price action remains within a well-defined ascending channel on the 4-hour timeframe, showing a clear structure of higher highs and higher lows. The recent recovery from the lower boundary of the channel highlights strong buyer interest around the $90,000 level, but now the price is approaching a critical inflection point near $96,000.
Bullish Case: Potential Breakout Above the Midline
If Bitcoin can decisively break above the midline of the channel with strong volume, it would signal a continuation of the bullish momentum. This could pave the way for a rally toward the upper boundary of the channel, aligning with the psychological resistance of $100,000. A clean breakout above this zone might even trigger further upside potential, leading to a retest of higher levels like $105,000 or more. Watch for increasing buy volume and reduced resistance as key signals for this scenario.
Bearish Case: Potential Rejection
On the flip side, failure to maintain bullish pressure near $96,000 could result in a rejection and a pullback toward the lower boundary of the channel. The key support to watch in this scenario would be the $90,000 level. A breakdown below the channel's support would invalidate the bullish setup and could push Bitcoin toward deeper corrections, possibly targeting $87,000 or even $83,000 as the next significant support levels.
Key Levels to Monitor
Immediate Resistance: $96,500 (midline of the channel)
Major Resistance: $98,000–$100,000 (upper channel boundary & psychological level)
Immediate Support: $93,000 (short-term pullback zone)
Major Support: $90,000 (lower channel boundary)
Indicators & Volume
Momentum indicators like RSI and MACD should be closely monitored here. A breakout with overbought RSI might indicate exhaustion, while bearish divergence would support the rejection scenario. Moreover, the trading volume remains critical—any bullish breakout without significant volume could lead to a false breakout, trapping buyers.
Market Context
It's also important to consider the broader macroeconomic environment. Any significant news—such as regulatory developments, institutional buying, or macroeconomic shifts—could act as a catalyst for Bitcoin's next major move. With the current market sentiment leaning bullish, many traders may remain cautiously optimistic, but risk management is crucial given the volatile nature of the market.
In conclusion, Bitcoin is at a decisive moment. Whether it breaks higher or pulls back, this channel structure provides a clear framework for monitoring the next key moves. As always, trade wisely and ensure proper risk-reward ratios in your setups."
Bitcoin Breaks $95K Pivot: What’s Next After US Inflation Data? Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) surged past the crucial $95,000 level following the release of US PCE inflation data, which came in at 2.3% YoY—right on target. This event, combined with strong technical signals and institutional interest, paints a compellingly bullish outlook for BTC.
Inflation and Institutional Moves
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data revealed steady inflation at 2.3%, aligning with expectations. Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, showed a 2.8% YoY increase. This steady inflation reading suggests potential stabilization in interest rates, a scenario historically favorable for Bitcoin as investors seek hedges against inflation and currency devaluation.
Additionally, the global landscape for institutional investments in Bitcoin is heating up. Chinese publicly-listed firm SOS recently announced a $50 million investment in BTC, viewing it as a long-term store of value and predicting a $100K milestone. This strategic move signals growing confidence among institutional players, which could drive further price momentum.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin’s current price action supports the bullish narrative. Here’s why:
1. Bullish Engulfing Pattern: CRYPTOCAP:BTC is trading around $95,900, having formed a strong bullish engulfing candle. This pattern often signals a trend reversal or continuation, indicating potential for further gains.
2. Golden Cross Formation: BTC’s chart shows a “Golden Cross,” where the 50-day moving average (MA) crosses above the 200-day MA. Historically, this pattern has preceded major bull runs, suggesting CRYPTOCAP:BTC could reach $150K by the end of the year or shortly after.
3. RSI at 67: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in neutral territory—not overbought nor oversold—providing room for further upward movement. This gives traders and investors confidence to enter or hold positions.
Since May 2024, Bitcoin was trapped in a falling wedge pattern. It recently broke through this structure at the intersection of the 50-day and 200-day MAs.
Outlook: Targeting $150K?
With strong fundamentals—rising institutional adoption and favorable inflation data—combined with powerful technical indicators like the Golden Cross and bullish engulfing patterns, Bitcoin appears poised for a substantial rally. We predict BTC could hit $150K by Christmas or early 2025.
Investors should watch key levels: maintaining support above $95K will be crucial, with near-term resistance at $100K. If CRYPTOCAP:BTC sustains momentum, a breakout above this psychological barrier could trigger a parabolic move.
Final Thoughts
As Bitcoin’s narrative strengthens with macroeconomic and technical factors aligned, now may be an opportune moment for investors. Stay tuned—2024 might end with Bitcoin rewriting crypto history.
Bitcoin Analysis: Two Key Demand Zones for Potential Bounce
Bitcoin's price action currently hovers near critical areas of demand, suggesting two zones where buyers might step in to push prices higher. These zones represent areas of significant historical interest where demand has previously outweighed supply, potentially leading to a bounce:
Demand Zone 1 - Immediate Support:
This zone lies between $93,420 - $95,000 where Bitcoin recently found support during its last pullback. It aligns with a high-demand area on the chart, characterized by a cluster of previous rejections and consolidations. Buyers may look to defend this level as it coincides with key technical confluences, such as previous swing lows and trendline support.
Demand Zone 2 - Deeper Support Level:
The second demand zone is located between $91,850 - $90,800 marking a region where significant buying pressure previously triggered strong upward momentum. This zone is reinforced by a high-volume accumulation area and aligns with a critical Fibonacci retracement level. If the price dips to this region, it may attract long-term buyers aiming to capitalize on lower prices.
Key Considerations:
Price Reaction: Monitor how Bitcoin reacts as it approaches these zones; wicks and sharp rejections could signal strong demand.
Volume Confirmation: Increasing buy-side volume near these zones will validate the strength of the demand areas.
Risk Management: A sustained break below these zones may invalidate the bullish thesis, so stop-loss placement is crucial.
These demand zones serve as key levels to watch for potential reversals, offering strategic entry points for traders looking to capitalize on a possible Bitcoin bounce
If you're looking for the most accurate and reliable insights into Bitcoin's price action, my analysis is second to none. Follow my updates for consistent, actionable strategies that outperform the market.
BTC Retrace Possibly Complete H4From BTC low to swing high (88,700 to 99,800) we have had a perfect breakdown through the fibs all the way down to a perfect body close on the .786. The price action dipped below the 100 sma for a short period and quickly recovered this level. Price is currently trading above the .5 fib retracement level. RSI is 49 at time of publishing and trending upward after an MA cross. Price is targeting the .382 and 50 sma next as levels to watch as btc recovers further. This is just my opinion, there is also clearly a scenario with more downside. This idea is strictly my opinion.
Not financial advice.
Do your own DD.
Thanks for viewing the idea.
Bitcoin's $92K Correction: A Deep Dive into the Real CulpritBitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency, has recently undergone a significant price correction, dipping below the crucial $92,000 level. While many analysts initially pointed fingers at the influx of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) as the primary catalyst for this downturn, on-chain data paints a different picture.
The Myth of ETF-Induced Selling Pressure
The narrative that ETF inflows have been the primary driver of Bitcoin's recent price decline has gained traction in certain circles. However, a closer examination of on-chain data reveals a different story.
• Long-Term Hodlers Remain Resilient: Despite the market downturn, long-term Bitcoin holders, often referred to as "whales," have shown remarkable resilience. These individuals, who have held their Bitcoin for extended periods, have not been significant sellers during the recent correction.
• Short-Term Holders Under Pressure: In contrast to long-term holders, short-term holders have been more inclined to sell their Bitcoin, particularly during periods of market volatility. This suggests that the recent price decline may be more attributable to profit-taking by short-term investors rather than a broader market sell-off.
A Normal Correction, Not a Bear Market
It's important to recognize that the current price correction is a natural part of the cryptocurrency market cycle. Bitcoin has experienced similar corrections in the past, often followed by periods of consolidation and subsequent upward momentum.
• Technical Analysis Suggests a Healthy Correction: A closer look at Bitcoin's technical indicators reveals a healthy correction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped below the overbought level, indicating that the recent price surge may have been overextended. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has crossed below the signal line, suggesting a potential bearish trend in the short term.
• Support Levels to Watch: Traders and investors should keep an eye on key support levels, such as the 100-day moving average on the 4-hour chart. If Bitcoin can hold above this level, it could signal a potential reversal of the current downtrend.
The Future of Bitcoin: A Long-Term Bullish Outlook
Despite the recent price correction, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish. Several factors continue to drive the adoption and value of Bitcoin:
• Institutional Adoption: Major financial institutions and corporations are increasingly recognizing the potential of Bitcoin as a valuable asset class. This institutional adoption is likely to fuel further price appreciation in the long run.
• Deflationary Supply: Bitcoin's fixed supply of 21 million coins ensures that its value will appreciate over time as demand increases.
• Global Economic Uncertainty: As global economies grapple with inflation and geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin's appeal as a hedge against inflation and a store of value is likely to grow.
In conclusion, while the recent price correction may have caused some short-term volatility, it is important to maintain a long-term perspective. Bitcoin's underlying fundamentals remain strong, and the cryptocurrency is well-positioned to continue its upward trajectory in the years to come.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial1 advice. It is important to conduct thorough research and consider consulting with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.2
Bitcoin to 125,000After 9 months of downtrend/sideways price action, bitcoin has finally broke out of this trend.
If we zoom out to weekly time frame, the 9 months of downtrend/sideways price action, serves as "handle" for "cup and handle" pattern which goes back to Nov 2021. Finally, after 3 years, this pattern is completed and bitcoin is set to get to it's next target which is ~125,000.
On it's way up, bitcoin will probably face some resistance at 100K, since people have been waiting for bitcoin to hit this price target from all the way back in 2019-2020. Moreover, 100K is Fibonacci famous 1.6 extension level, so we might see some sell off at this price. However, we believe that FOMO can break this resistance level with ease and bring up the price to 125,000 USD.
From this point, we probably see more sharp upward trend toward 155K and 200K but this is the danger zone where we might see sharp pullbacks to 100-125K range.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Can BTC Bounce Back After 8% Crash?Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) has recently taken a significant hit, with the price crashing by 8% from its all-time high of $99,690. As of the latest data, Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) is trading around $92,373, after a 7.09% correction that has left many traders wondering whether BTC will recover or continue its downward trend. This article takes a deep dive into both the fundamental and technical aspects of Bitcoin's current performance and explores what might lie ahead for the leading cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin's Recent Price Action: A Brief Overview
Bitcoin's impressive ascent towards the $100,000 mark was temporarily halted with the most recent crash, which occurred in the wake of the asset approaching its all-time high on November 22. The drop has led to the formation of a potential swing low at $92,620 on Monday, with Bitcoin showing early signs of a recovery.
Despite the correction, Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) remains up by more than 130% year-to-date, reflecting the continued bullish sentiment surrounding the cryptocurrency. Many analysts have speculated that the fourth quarter of 2024 could see Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) pushing towards a six-digit price point, and this recent drop may be part of a healthy consolidation before another leg up.
Bullish Long-Term Outlook
Bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market remains unparalleled. The digital asset’s market capitalization hovers around $1.93 trillion, representing over 40% of the entire cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin’s resilience is fueled by its status as the first decentralized digital currency and its wide acceptance as "digital gold" and a store of value.
The network’s security, scalability, and decentralized nature have kept Bitcoin at the forefront of the crypto market since its inception in 2009. In addition, Bitcoin continues to be a preferred hedge against inflation, a narrative that remains relevant as inflation concerns persist globally.
Furthermore, Bitcoin’s role as an uncorrelated asset has also contributed to its growing reputation as a safe haven. As Bitcoin’s popularity expands and its network upgrades continue to improve its efficiency and functionality, the long-term outlook remains highly positive.
Upcoming Key Developments:
The Bitcoin network has seen several crucial upgrades in the past few years, including the Taproot upgrade, which significantly improved Bitcoin’s smart contract functionality and privacy features. Upgrades like these are key to ensuring that Bitcoin remains secure, decentralized, and scalable, with more improvements planned for the future. As more institutional investors and major companies embrace Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ), the demand for the cryptocurrency is expected to continue growing.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s recent price action reveals both bearish and bullish signals. As the price hit a local low of $92,620, the market is at a crucial juncture. A failure to hold above the $92,000-$93,000 support zone could see Bitcoin testing lower levels, with potential downside targets near the $87,000 region. If Bitcoin breaks below $87,000, a further decline towards the $70,000-$75,000 range could follow.
However, there are also significant bullish signs in Bitcoin’s current price structure. Despite the recent drop, Bitcoin is holding above key support levels, and the RSI (Relative Strength Index) remains above 50, which suggests that there is still potential for upward momentum. A bounce from current levels could push Bitcoin back towards the $95,000 level, with a crucial resistance at $95,666. If Bitcoin clears this hurdle, it could set the stage for a recovery to $100,000 and beyond.
Will Bitcoin Recover or Face Further Declines?
Bitcoin’s price movements have been volatile, and this recent crash may simply be part of a healthy consolidation phase before the next major rally. Given that Bitcoin is holding well above support zones and has maintained significant year-to-date gains, it is likely that the cryptocurrency will make another attempt to reach $100,000 in the near future. However, this will depend heavily on broader market conditions and investor sentiment.
If Bitcoin breaks the $95,666 resistance level, there is a strong chance that it could set new all-time highs by the end of the year, pushing closer to $100,000. On the other hand, if Bitcoin fails to reclaim bullish momentum and breaks below the $87,000 support, it could face a deeper pullback, with $70,000 being a possible target.
Gold Lost Steam as New US Administration to Take World StageCOMEX: Micro Gold Futures ( COMEX_MINI:MGC1! )
On Monday, gold prices tumbled 3% on reports of Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire and the nomination of Scott Bessent as the U.S. Treasury Secretary. Spot gold fell 3.4% to $2,619.43 per ounce. COMEX gold futures shed 3.4% to $2,620.8.
As a safe-haven investment, gold holds strong appeal with the rise of geopolitical crisis. After the US presidential election, investors anticipated that both the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East neared end. The new Treasury pick reduces the risk of escalating trade conflicts, as we have seen in Mr. Trump’s first term. Overall, gold falls on anticipation of lower geopolitical risks in the second Trump presidency.
Where would gold prices go from here? I find it useful to analyze the 5-year price trends and identify key factors driving gold prices up and down.
From December 2019 to October 2024, golds prices rose 88%. Gold’s recent plunge started in late October, as market anticipated a Trump win. During this five-year period, gold prices have seen significant rises for five times, and major pullbacks for four times.
Gold Bull Trends and the Key Drivers:
• When the COVID pandemic broke out in January 2020, gold prices rose sharply, and the stock market plummeted. This highlights gold's safe-haven investment function.
• In February 2022, gold prices rose in response to the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Geopolitical crisis was the key driver.
• High inflation in the US, peaked at a 9.1% CPI in July 2022, pushed gold prices to record high. Gold is considered a good hedge for inflation.
• In October 2023, the Hamas-Israeli conflict broke out. Gold rallied again as a safe-haven investment.
• The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a massive 50 basis points at its September 2024 policy meeting, followed by another 25-bp cut in November. With the expectation of more Fed cuts, gold started a new rally in July 2024. The trade logic: Fed cuts reduce the rate of return on interest-bearing assets such as Treasury bonds and bank deposits, which on turn makes gold investment more appealing.
Gold Bear Trends and the Key Drivers:
• China resumed manufacturing activities relatively soon after the pandemic. While the U.S. and Europe were still on lockdown and standstill, Chinese goods were exported to fill the gap. This helped lower the perceived risk of an once-a-century health crisis. Gold prices pulled back as a result.
• The Russia-Ukraine conflict entered a stalemate. It did not spread to other European countries and escalated into World War 3. The geopolitical crisis has subsided, and as a result, gold prices withdrew from advancing.
• After the Fed hiked rates 11 times in a row, US inflation has finally cooled down. Gold completed its mission as inflation hedge. Consequently, investors pulled money out of gold and into stocks, causing gold prices to fall.
Trade Setup with Micro Gold Futures
On November 5th, Mr. Trump won by a landslide and was re-elected as the 47th U.S President. In the following three weeks, he quickly completed the nomination of 15-member Cabinet in his new administration.
Based on campaign promises and new Cabinet picks, investors interpret the new Trump policy in a series of the so-called "Trump trades". In my own opinion, these include strong US dollar, weak gold prices and a secular bull market for cryptocurrencies.
• The ascension of a political strongman could bring about ceasefires in both the Russia-Ukraine front and the Middle East. As we recall the relatively peace time during the first Trump term, the expected de-escalation of geopolitical crises in his second term could drive gold prices down in the next four years.
• The "America First" policy is bullish for US dollar. 1) Bringing manufacturing back onshore would strengthen U.S. economy. 2) High tariffs would reduce trade deficits overtime, although inflation may go up in the short term. 3) Slashing fiscal spending by $2 trillion a year would shore up the government coffer. Combined, these policies would defend the dollar's status as an international reserve currency. The dollar index has risen from 103 to 107 in the past month. A strong dollar is bearish for the dollar-denominated gold, as foreign investors would pay more with foreign currencies.
• Mr. Trump is a strong supporter of cryptocurrencies. In the past three months, bitcoin has doubled in prices from $50,000 to nearly $100,000. The campaign promise to establishment of a central bank reserve for bitcoin, if materialized, would push crypto prices significantly higher in the next four years.
The CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that on November 19th, total Open Interest (OI) for Gold Futures is 502,952 contracts, down 33,029 or -6.2% from prior week. Leading the position cutback is Managed Money, which reduces 10,306 (-5.1%) in long positions and 15,911 (-25.6%) in spreading positions. Movement of the “Small Money” is a good indicator of future price trend.
Based on the above analysis, if a trader is bearish on gold prices, he could express his opinions by shorting the COMEX Micro Gold Futures ( AMEX:MGC ).
MGC contracts have a notional value of 10 troy ounces. With Monday settlement price of 2,712.2, each December contract (MGCZ4) has a notional value of $27,122. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $1,150.
The MGC contracts are very liquid. On Monday, MGC has a daily trade volume of 178,663 contracts and an Open Interest of 51,364.
Hypothetically, if gold prices pull back 5% further to 2,576.6, a short position would gain $1,356 (=135.6 x $10). Using initial margin as cost base, a theoretical return would be +118% (= 1356 / 1150). The risk of shorting futures is a rise on gold prices. Investors could lose part or all of their initial margin.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
worried about BTC? watch thisThis is not financial advice, but it is therapy. That's better, right?
Points I mentioned:
- The price dipping down is just a pullback, it is not a crash. Relax.
- There is a double bottom and I am watching 91.5k to see if it breaks down. If it does I am eyeing 85-88k area to enter a long.
- I believe we are experiencing profit taking and a pull back as we have seen dips like this before.
- We're not bad trader's, just greedy.
IBIT | This is Where Real Trader's are LookingThere's no need to complicate things. You are watching where real traders watch.
I see the green box and the red box as the selling place.
When the price reaches those areas, I recommend you to follow the volume side. If these regions are to be broken and passed, the volume side will give signals of this.
-
My Record Speaks for Itself
DOGEUSDT.P | 4 Reward for 1 Risk much more if you hold it.
RENDERUSDT.P | HTF Accuracy
ETHUSDT.P | Accurate Buyer Zone Identification | High Risk Reward if you hold it.
BNBUSDT.P | Accurate Buyer Zone Identification | High Risk Reward if you hold it.
Bitcoin Dominance | Great Characteristic Detection and Accurate Analysis
#2 Danger BTC is falling Bearish Outlook and Macro Perspective
As in my previous remarks, I signaled an unstable #100k level, which has developed into a failure even to touch this mark. This reflects a loosening in bullish momentum, as many holders and investors are now taking profits. It's important to remember that there are also long-term holders (over 5 years) who experienced losses of up to #77% since November 2021. These holders might now be exiting their positions, adding selling pressure to the market.
Moreover, with speculation surrounding Trump's actions post-20 January next year, it’s wise to approach the market cautiously and avoid wild bets. There are still lagging opportunities in other sectors. For example, Cardano (ADA) recently posted #38% gains in two weeks, highlighting alternative investments that are catching up to the current crypto bull run.
Bitcoin Analysis: Bearish Outlook and Short-Term Targets
Position Details:
Current Sell Entry: #97k
Target: #90k
Market Structure Overview:
The price action is respecting a rising wedge pattern, which is generally a bearish continuation pattern. The breakdown seen near the current price (~#94k) aligns with your bearish outlook.
Bearish Confirmation:
RSI: The RSI has fallen below neutral (currently #34.06), signaling weakening momentum.
MACD: The MACD histogram shows growing bearish momentum (red bars) alongside a bearish crossover.
Volume Flow Index (VFI):
The VFI at #20 suggests moderate capital flow into the market, but not sufficient to sustain bullish trends.
Short-Term Target: #90k
The primary target remains #90k, supported by:
The wedge breakdown projection aligning with this level.
Historical support zones evident on the chart.
December Scenario: Potential Retest or Breakout
Heading into December, two possible scenarios are likely:
Scenario A: Retest as a Double Top
A rebound could take the price back to #97k or higher, potentially forming a double top. Rejection here would confirm continued bearish pressure.
Scenario B: Breakout to #100k-#102k
If bullish momentum unexpectedly revives, a breakout to #100k-#102k could occur. However, this would likely represent a false breakout, followed by a deeper decline.
Technical Outlook:
Key Resistance Levels:
#96k (current zone of interest).
#100k-#102k (psychological resistance and possible retest zone).
Key Support Levels:
#90k (primary target).
#85k (potential deeper breakdown area).
Conclusion:
The current analysis reinforces a bearish short-term outlook, with a sell position targeting #90k. December may bring increased volatility with a possible retest at #97k or a breakout to #100k-#102k before the downward trend resumes. This cautious approach is underscored by macro factors such as profit-taking from long-term holders and alternative opportunities, like Cardano’s recent #38% gains, still lagging the broader crypto bull run. Stay vigilant with key levels and monitor confirmation signals from RSI and MACD.
BTCUSDT Loong!Bitcoin has been ranging for the past few days, ever since it hit its ALH at 99300. There was a slight pullback and a liquidation point, where the short sellers were lured and got liquidated.
I anticipate that the price is now bullish, after retesting that lower trendline. Entry point at 98000, target at 100800 and SL at 96700