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Total Crypto Market Cap H&S Invalidation and ForecastWith a quiet week ahead of the CPI and PPI due out this week, it's a good time to look at the Macro chart structure. Sometimes simpler is better, and I've had great success using simple formations like the H&S pattern, which beats Elliot Wave hands down most of the time. In this case, we were looking at a potential inverse Head and Shoulders on the Total Market Cap last week, but that has now been invalidated leaving us with this new wedge formation and a new lower high trendline. I think we have some unclear or negative economic data this week and likely see prices fall across the board and the TOTAL market cap here dip down into the buy range (Green boxes based on aggregate buy limit orders on the order books and using our Order Block Detector). Then we rally into the FOMC and ahead of a possible 50 basis point rate cut surprise, and kicking off a rip-roaring Q4 October to December rally and off to new ATH's on BTC. September is seasonally a down month, so I'd expect more chop until the above plays out. And of course, new information = new decision, so we have to remail open to anything. Some are calling for a re-test of the yearly open around $44k as Bitcion usually does re-test this level at least once during the year, and as of yet hasn't. But I think we'll hold $50k bitcoin on a closing basis and will be buying in the $50k - GETTEX:52K range, as Bitcoin will likely lead the rally, followed by Solana and ETH. Our multi-time frame radar indicator is mixed, so I'm waiting for this to turn Green and our other signals to also turn Bullish, namely our ERI and TSI (Early Reveral Indicator and Trend Strength Indicator - not shown). We'll have to play it week by week and see what opportunities present. Good luck trading, this has been a very difficult area to predict and forecast, and as we can see, there's still heavy sell pressure above. However, on another chart study I shared with M3 members yesterday, there's a massive macro Bull-Flag formation on the TOTAL market cap, with a measured move of $4.8T if and when we can solidly break to new ATH. Our weekly signals show we're oversold and poised to break higher soon, just like we saw in September 2023 and before the big rally we've been enjoying all year! Like and comment below for more like this, and I'll do my best to keep you posted!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by BrettFogle
BTC/USDT = Dominance Signals Bitcoin's Next Bullish MoveTL;DR for Busy Readers 95% confidence that Bitcoin has bottomed at $52.5k, with the worst possible scenario at $50.4k. The USDT Dominance Chart is showing resistance levels not seen since the last bear market when Bitcoin was around $27k. For Bitcoin to hit $44k, USDT dominance would need to enter bear market territory, which is highly unlikely. A 30%+ downside move in USDT dominance suggests more capital will flow into Bitcoin, signaling a bullish uptrend. The odds are heavily in favor of Bitcoin moving upward from here, and I expect it to play out over the rest of the month. I’m 95% confident that we’ve bottomed out at $52.5k, and the worst case scenario would be $50.4k. Additionally, I’m 95% certain we won’t see a drop to $44k or anywhere near it. Here’s why. The USDT Dominance Chart: A Key Indicator One of the most reliable charts for predicting Bitcoin tops and market reversals is the USDT Dominance chart. This chart tracks the dominance of Tether (USDT) in the market, and right now, it’s showing levels not seen since the last bear market when Bitcoin was trading around $27k. Currently, USDT Dominance is at critical resistance, touching levels that are typically only observed during bear markets. Historically, when USDT dominance hits these levels, it signals a bottom for Bitcoin and the beginning of an uptrend. Additionally, the USDT dominance chart indicates we could see over a 30%+ move to the downside in USDT dominance, meaning more capital will flow out of stablecoins and back into Bitcoin and other cryptos. This is a strong indicator that Bitcoin is bottoming out and preparing for a bullish move. Why $44k is Unlikely For Bitcoin to drop to $44k, USDT dominance would have to enter territory that we’ve only ever seen in true bear markets. If this happens, it could break the higher timeframe (HTF) structure on both the USDT dominance chart and the Bitcoin chart, and ultimately, we wouldn’t just stop at $44k—we’d probably end up around $30k. That’s why if you’re hoping for $44k , you’re really wishing for a major bear market that could pull Bitcoin down much further. This scenario would mean a shift in the current market structure, which doesn’t align with the probabilities we’re seeing. Upside Probability is Much Higher While there’s always a chance that USDT dominance could break higher and push the market lower, the probability of this happening is very small in my opinion. Investing is all about probabilities, and when we assess the entire market situation, it’s clear that the upside is heavily favored right now. Based on the data, the market structure, and the USDT dominance chart, the likelihood of Bitcoin continuing upward from here is very high. It’s important to monitor how the market behaves in the coming weeks, but all signs point toward a bullish move. My years of experience kind of Opinion In summary, the USDT dominance chart is signaling that we’ve likely seen the bottom at $52.5k, and the chances of Bitcoin falling to $44k or lower are extremely slim. If anything, this level of USDT dominance typically indicates that a Bitcoin rally is on the horizon. Stay cautious, but it looks like the market is gearing up for an uptrend. Let's see how the rest of the month plays out, but from where I stand, the upside looks very promising. DISCLAIMER: All though I predicted the market at 18K pump, this prediction is still for informational/documentation of my journey and entertainment purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. As with all investments, there are risks involved, and probability-based analysis may not always result in accurate predictions. Always consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Long
by osodatsismoso
Waiting for a BTC Break From the Current DowntrendPatience pays in trading. Sure one can come in really anytime and start trading on the low time frames, but how do you know you are trading in the right direction? This is where zooming out to longer time frames can give you a better outlook on what the market is actually doing. If you only focus on short term time frames for scalps, you can easily miss the bigger picture and you may actually be fighting against a bigger trend. This is why I always check daily and the 1-4 hour time frames before I go jumping into the 1-5 minute time frames... Yes, I am back trading the 1 minute candle for scalp trades, haha. Because of this, I am seeing that the current downtrend in Bitcoin could be coming to an end, but I want to be sure before I go and start putting in buy orders. We are seeing a BUY signal from the Logical Trading Indicator PRO, but I want to wait until the price actually breaks above the long period moving average. What may be even better is to wait until the basis line (20 WMA) breaks the long period moving average. That is a clear change in trend. Waiting for the bigger trend to turn bullish is a better move, in my opinion, than just jumping in and stabbing away at long trades. For now, since the downtrend is still in play, I am currently looking for shorting opportunities until that bigger trend changes to the other direction. We may very possibly see the 50K-52K level again as there are order blocks stacked up in that area where there are buy orders ready to soak up some cheap Bitcoin. What do you think? Are you bullish or bearish on Bitcoin? Would love to know your thoughts in the comments!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by thelogicaldude
What does the future hold for Crypto Mining?I have chosen RIOT as the chart, but I am looking at MARA and also BITF. But as a whole, looking at the WGMI (Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF), BTC mining companies as a whole is taking a hit. Crypto itself is taking a huge hit and of course, this affects Crypto Mining. It did seem that Crypto was going to push higher as the expectations for the BTC ETF release was going to be the first part of pushing BTC to the "moon" and with the BTC halving, money would just start stacking for holders. But that didn't happen. There is a decent amount of geo political turmoil going on. Governments selling BTC. SEC doing what it can to get Crypto labeled as securities in order to bring the coins to its realm of oversight. The Yen carry trade unwinding. The potential of a recession. But there is the other side, where there is good news going on for BTC. The possibility of BTC becoming a reserve asset. The upcoming elections, with a a lot of fingers pointing at former President Donald Trump being very pro Crypto. But even if Kamala Harris (pointed in ALTCOIN daily), says that she is in support of crypto, then that will be a good push for Crypto to move higher. There is also the FED reducing rates towards the end of September; with the recent NFP coming out lower than expected and pushing the chances for a reduction in rates for 50 basis points to 50%. So if the self fulling prophecy for BTC hitting $100k - $150k do come true, then Crypto Miners are going to be cooking. Projects are already underway and the Crypto Market has been very resilent. There are those that thought Crypto was going to collapse during the silk road incident. Then after the cash in 2017 when BTC hit $20k. Then the Terra Luna incident. FTX collapse. Mt. Gox incident. And many others. Yet Crypto is still here. The main issue I think is where all the money is pilling into, and during 2017, crypto was starting to hit the mainstream and a lot of coverage was on it. Institutions finally starting trading BTC and others, as well a lot of retail traders and investors were pilling in. In 2021, people were staying home, receiving check after check of stimulus, wondering were to put it. Then when things started opening up, businesses were offering sign up bonuses. Afterwards, during both these events, once Crypto hit a certain lvl, a ton of people cashed out and instantly became very rich. This money flowed into other products, such as wants and/or other ventures/markets. Now money is flowing into different meme coins, AI, FAANG-M stocks, among other things. If BTC is able to push higher and hit the around $120k, then MARA, holding around 13,677 BTC will be worth around $1.65 billion, RIOT with a holding of around 7,250, will be around $870 million, and BITF, with holdings of around $1,016, would be around $121 million (which RIOT is attempting a takeover of BITF, offering a buyout of BITF, which BITF did not accept. If this does happen, RIOT would become a very strong competitor to MARA, pushing its exahash production from 12.6 to 19.6. MARA has an exahash of 29.9). For the price targets, if things go accordingly, MARA will likely be able to break out of the $20 resistance, avoiding the completion of the inverse cup and handle pattern. If this pattern forms, price will likely keep pushing lower, potentially to around the $8 lvl (at least breaking the $10). For RIOT and BITF, they have the same pattern as MARA, and WGMI price is in a monthly rising channel, so there is a strong possibility that price will drop, but if things go accordingly, then prices on these companies will also avoid the acceptance of the inverse cup and handle pattern. The psychological lvls for these two companies are $10 and $2, which could be hit depending on how things go these next few months. I am in a position on RIOT and a few on BITF, my positions are at a small loss, but I am selling covered calls and cash secured puts to offset the loss, which, when factored in, puts me at a net positive. Additionally, I am participating in the stock lending program, which is further offsetting my losses. I am on the side that price will push higher and I am willing to see it through. Protect your inventory (your capital), and have some great trading out there.
NASDAQ:RIOTLong
by DollarSaenz
14
Bitcoin's Price Struggles: A Bearish Short-Term OutlookAfter dipping to 50k in early August, Bitcoin staged a recovery and climbed to 65k. However, the bullish momentum lacked follow-through, as buyers were unable to push past the resistance of a large flag pattern that has kept Bitcoin in a corrective phase for months. In the short term, Bitcoin’s price pulled back down from 65k, initially forming what looked like a falling wedge—a potential bullish reversal pattern. Unfortunately, this formation did not hold, and Bitcoin experienced another breakdown. Currently, the short-term outlook is bearish, with resistance around the 55,500-56k zone. Short-term traders may consider selling in this range, targeting a move back to 50k if a new leg downward materializes. This bearish scenario would be invalidated if the price stabilizes above the 58k level.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
BTC: The beginning of a rebound.Hello everyone, Here’s a quick and simple breakdown of the key support and resistance zones. Below are the reasons why these zones have been selected: ✔️ Support Zone 1. ($53,329.5 ~ $52,372.5) Descending channel Fibonacci 0.786 retracement Significant low (S/R Flip) ✔️ Resistance Zone 1. ($55,969.0 ~ $55,499.6) Fibonacci 0.236 retracement Significant low (S/R Flip) ✔️ Resistance Zone 2. ($58,218.0 ~ $57,348.7) Fibonacci 0.382 retracement Significant low (S/R Flip) There's a strong likelihood of significant price action within these zones, either as support or resistance. Keep a close eye on Bitcoin’s movement in these areas. Best of luck! *S/R Flip: Support/Resistance Flip This is not a buy or sell recommendation. It is a personal perspective and should be used for reference only. All decisions and responsibilities lie with you.
Long
by Killer_Whales
1
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 6, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The recent market activity witnessed a continued decline in the value of Bitcoin, leading to a significant drop and triggering a shift to our designated Key Support level of 54000. Current market sentiment indicates a potential recovery towards Mean Resistance 56700, possibly extending to Mean Resistance 59200. It is pertinent to acknowledge that persistent selling pressure at this stage could precipitate a further down towards the previously completed Interim Coin Dip 50000 before a resurgence occurs.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
BTC → still is bearishhello guys. as I published before. Descending Channel: The price is trading within a downward channel, indicating a short-term bearish trend. Upside Rejection: Attempts to break above the upper boundary near $59,000 failed, suggesting resistance. Downside Target: If the price continues to follow the channel, it may target the lower boundary near $54,000. Key Levels: Resistance: $59,000 Support: $54,000 Outlook: Bearish momentum with potential downside extension towards the lower support zone. Watch for any break below $54,000 or above the channel for trend reversal signals. __________________________ ✓✓✓ Always do your research. ❒❒❒ If you have any questions, you can write them in the comments below, and I will answer them. ❤︎ ❤︎ ❤︎And please don't forget to support this idea with your likes and comment
Short
by melikatrader94
3
BTC Still inside the BOX / Careful about the BTC heatmap!BINANCE:BTCUSDT COINBASE:BTCUSD Hello Traders, Despite positive economic sentiment, BTC still fluctuating inside the box. If the price stays above the yellow area, the green scenario is valid and after that if price breaks above the 65K level and stabilize there, 66690 and 70100 levels are the next price resistances. According to the recent market heatmap, some shadows may occur inside the circle area for some market liquidation. Stay tuned for more updates.
Long
by CrazyS
$IBIT Gap Filled As Forecast (New Leading Bitcoin Indicator?)Proof that this works? So far it's 100% accurate. Every single 'Gap' on the NASDAQ:IBIT 4-Hour chart has filled. Refer back to my prior videos showing this, and while this does NOT mean it will continue to work forever... It's certainly a curious anomoly. And likely works based on the same principals as the CME gaps which typically fill 99% of the time (There's still an unfilled gap on the Bitcoin CME at $9750 as I recall). But who's counting. Going forward, I'll be using this as an additional guide to where price may be heading and potentially reversing to, before resuming trent. Like and share this with your other trader friends, as this has been very interesting to monitor!
NASDAQ:IBITShort
by BrettFogle
1
Centralized Exchanges See Uptick In Trading VolumesMarket Update - September 6, 2024 Takeaways The market faced a broad decline over the past week:  More than $162 million in crypto liquidations occurred last weekend, primarily from long positions, as US bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows totaling $276 million. As of Thursday, the price of bitcoin had dropped to nearly $56,000. The SEC has expressed concerns over FTX’s proposed distribution of stablecoins to creditors:  While FTX’s plan aims to repay 98% of creditors in cash, the SEC may take the stance that remaining distributions made in crypto violate federal securities laws. Cardano implemented its “Chang” upgrade, shifting control from its founding bodies to a decentralized governance structure using the ADA token:  The long-awaited enhancement allows the community to vote on proposals and elect governance representatives. High-ranking Binance executive Tigran Gambaryan, detained in Nigeria since February, appeared in court on Monday in pain after being denied a wheelchair:  His lawyers have filed for bail on medical grounds, citing multiple health issues, but the prosecution has opposed the request. Trading volumes on centralized cryptocurrency exchanges saw a roughly 6.6% MoM increase in August, reaching $1.2 trillion:  Exchanges in North America experienced more than a 21% increase in activity compared to July. 🎾 Topic of the Week: Fetch.AI (FET): An AI Solution to Data Inefficiency ➡️ Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
Imminent rebound for BTC in the next 24 hours! A strong sun will shine over Bitcoin in the next 24 hours, signaling bullish market conditions! ☀️ The price of Bitcoin rose 1 percent to $57,277 over the past 24 hours and still has the potential to go up. The 12 spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds (ETFs) listed in the US have posted outflows totaling almost $800 million dollar over the past six trading days, data from Sosovalue shows. Investors now await cues from the upcoming US job figures being released tomorrow. Analysts expect 160,000 jobs to have been created outside the US farming sector in August, up from 114,000 jobs in July. Yet, over a one-week time horizon, drizzle will linger over Bitcoin, signaling downside potential. 🌧 Follow us for more crypto news and weather reports!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ATTMO
BITCOIN: Elliott Wave & ChannelGreetings, everyone.😉 I would like to present a scenario for your consideration, grounded in "Elliott Wave Theory" . ✔️ Wave initiated from the 15K level: Classified as a "Double Zigzag" ✔️ Current wave in development: Y-c-3 ✔️ Projected upward range: 93K ~ 101K The rationale behind this analysis is as follows: Zigzag patterns typically move within a parallel channel. The first zigzag wave, which started from the 15K level, adhered precisely to this parallel channel. As a result, the likelihood of a complex correction occurring is considerably high. Based on these observations, I have constructed this particular scenario. It is an illustrative representation of potential market behavior, grounded in established technical principles. Wishing you all the best of luck. This is not a buy or sell recommendation. It is a personal perspective and should be used for reference only. All decisions and responsibilities lie with you.
Long
by Killer_Whales
Bitcoin: best time to buy the dip?Bitcoin (BTC) remained bearish, as the king coin was trading under $57k at press time. While this initially looked disastrous, for savvy investors, this might as well be a right opportunity to buy the dip. According to CoinMarketCap, BTC’s price dropped by more than 3% in the last seven days. In the last 24 hours alone, the king coin witnessed a nearly 4% price fall. Meanwhile, Ali, a popular crypto analyst, posted a tweet revealing a bullish development. Top BTC traders on Binance showed a slight bullish tilt, with 51.79% investors holding long positions on BTC. Generally, a rise in the number of long positions in the market hint at an increase in bullish sentiment around an asset. As pet the chart, The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) registered an uptick. This indicated that BTC’s bearish price action might end soon. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved southwards, meaning that the possibility of BTC falling further can’t be ruled out yet.
by paul_endeo