Interesting to see if this channel holds?CRYPTOCAP:BTC channel established from 2018 has held. If this channel holds, we are near if not at tops already and will be moving back down sooner than later.
Has #BTC really decoupled? COINBASE:BTCUSD
Bitcoinprice
BTCUSD Structure Analysis : Bullish Zone From Support + Target🔍 Current Market Structure Overview:
Bitcoin is currently trading around $108,375, hovering just above a clearly respected rising support zone (shaded area). This dynamic support has held price multiple times and continues to act as a springboard for short-term bullish moves.
The chart illustrates a classic bullish continuation setup forming, with key structural levels marked as Minor BOS (Break of Structure) and Major BOS, indicating potential areas of trend validation and momentum acceleration.
🔹 Key Technical Elements:
✅ Support Zone:
The shaded diagonal support zone has acted as a bullish trendline base, holding up since late June.
BTC recently dipped into this area, found buyers, and is now attempting a reversal from this level.
This reinforces market interest and confirms the accumulation behavior in this zone.
⚠️ Break of Structure (BOS) Levels:
Minor BOS is marked near $109,800, signaling the first key intraday resistance.
A break above this level would signal bullish intent and open the way for price expansion.
Major BOS around $110,600–$110,800 is critical. A clean break here will likely validate a trend continuation toward the next objective.
🟩 Next Reversal Zone (Target Area):
Highlighted around $111,500–$112,000, this green zone represents a potential liquidity grab/reversal area where sellers could re-enter.
This zone aligns with previous price exhaustion levels and may trigger consolidation or a short-term pullback.
📈 Projected Price Path (Wave Schematic):
The chart outlines a wave structure projection, suggesting:
A possible retest of the minor BOS.
Follow-through into the major BOS area.
Final push into the reversal zone before potential rejection or sideways action.
🔧 Bias & Strategy:
Bias: Moderately Bullish as long as BTC respects the support zone.
Invalidation: A decisive breakdown below the trendline support and close under $107,500 would invalidate this bullish setup and shift bias to neutral/bearish short-term.
Trading Plan Ideas:
📥 Buy Opportunity: On minor dips within the support zone, targeting BOS levels.
📤 Sell Watch: Near reversal zone ($111.5K–$112K) if signs of exhaustion or bearish divergence appear.
📌 Final Notes:
BTC appears to be gearing up for a breakout from consolidation, and price action is coiling with higher lows. Market participants should watch closely how BTC reacts at the minor and major BOS zones, as they could define the next leg for either bullish continuation or rejection.
$BTC (BITCOIN) 4HPrice previously rallied strongly from a Fair Value Gap (FVG) at the bottom of the chart, forming a bullish market structure.
After a bullish displacement, BTC consolidated in a tight range (reaccumulation) and swept internal liquidity before breaking down.
Now, price has returned to a critical discount zone around 107800–107600
First Target: 109,229 — internal range high.
Main Objective: 112,000 — resting external liquidity above a clean high.
As long as BTC holds above 107600, we remain bullish. The current area is perfect for accumulation before a potential expansion phase toward external liquidity.
BTC Storm of Consolidation, New Money, and Macro-PoliticsBitcoin at the Precipice: A Perfect Storm of Consolidation, New Money, and Macro-Political Tailwinds
In the intricate and often tempestuous world of digital assets, there are moments of frantic volatility and periods of eerie calm. Bitcoin, the undisputed king of cryptocurrencies, currently finds itself in one of these fascinating lulls—a state of high-altitude consolidation that is anything but sleepy. Trading just a whisper away from its all-time high, the asset is coiling like a spring, absorbing immense selling pressure from early adopters while simultaneously drawing in a new, powerful wave of buyers. This delicate equilibrium, however, is set against a backdrop of explosive potential catalysts. From tightening technical indicators screaming of an imminent breakout to the looming deadline of US tariffs, the vocal endorsement of tech titans, and the unprecedented entry of Bitcoin into the mainstream political arena, the stage is being meticulously set. The question on every analyst's and investor's mind is no longer if Bitcoin will make its next major move, but when, and just how monumental it will be. This is not just another market cycle; it is a convergence of forces that could propel Bitcoin toward price horizons that were once the domain of only the most fervent optimists.
The Anatomy of a Healthy Consolidation: Whales Recede as a New Foundation is Built
At first glance, a market that stalls just below its peak might seem like a sign of weakness, an indication that the bullish momentum has been exhausted. However, a deeper look into the current structure of the Bitcoin market reveals a picture of profound strength and maturity. This period of consolidation is characterized by a crucial and healthy rotation of ownership. The so-called "whales"—early investors and large-scale holders who have accumulated vast quantities of Bitcoin at much lower prices—are beginning to ease their holdings. This is not the panic-selling seen during bear market capitulations. Rather, it is a strategic and logical process of taking profits, de-risking portfolios, and realizing life-changing gains after a historic run.
Every Bitcoin sold by a whale must be bought by someone else, and the identity of these new buyers is what makes the current phase so compellingly bullish. The supply being released onto the market is not causing a price crash; instead, it is being steadily absorbed by a fresh cohort of participants. This new wave includes a diverse mix of players: retail investors who are gaining confidence as Bitcoin solidifies its mainstream status, smaller institutional players who are now more comfortable entering the market, and, most significantly, corporations that are beginning to view Bitcoin as a legitimate treasury reserve asset. This process is akin to the changing of the guard. The early pioneers are passing the baton to a new generation of holders who are establishing a new, higher cost basis. This dynamic is incredibly constructive for long-term price stability. It builds a robust and formidable wall of support at these elevated price levels, transforming what was once a speculative peak into a solid foundation for the next leg up.
Further evidence of this underlying strength can be seen in Bitcoin's recent weekly performance. The asset has managed to set another record high weekly close. In the world of technical analysis, a weekly close is considered far more significant than a brief, volatile intraday spike. An intraday high can be the result of a short-lived speculative frenzy or a liquidation cascade, but a high weekly close demonstrates sustained buying pressure and conviction over a longer duration. It signifies that, for seven straight days, buyers successfully defended higher price levels against sellers, ultimately winning the battle as the candle closed. This repeated ability to secure high weekly closes indicates that the market is systematically accepting and validating these new price territories, creating a psychological and technical launchpad for a future assault on all-time highs. Traders are now intensely focused on this dynamic, attempting to pinpoint the new, higher bottoms of this consolidation range, recognizing that these levels are likely to serve as the bedrock for the next major bull run.
The Technical Cauldron: Bollinger Bands Signal an Imminent and Violent Breakout
While the fundamental picture is one of healthy rotation, the technical charts are sending an even more urgent message: prepare for a massive move. Among the myriad of indicators used by traders, the Bollinger Bands are currently painting a particularly dramatic picture. Bollinger Bands consist of three lines plotted over a price chart. The middle band is a simple moving average, while the upper and lower bands are positioned at a set number of standard deviations away from the middle band. In essence, they are a direct measure of market volatility. When the market is volatile, the bands widen. When the market is calm and consolidating, the bands contract, or "squeeze."
Bitcoin is currently in the midst of one of the most significant Bollinger Band squeezes seen in recent history. The upper and lower bands have drawn incredibly close to one another, indicating that volatility has been wrung out of the market to an extreme degree. Historically, such periods of low volatility are the calm before the storm. A Bollinger Band squeeze is almost always resolved by a period of explosive, high volatility—a powerful breakout. The longer and tighter the squeeze, the more violent the subsequent price move tends to be. The indicator itself does not predict the direction of the breakout, but in the current context, the directional bias is overwhelmingly clear. With Bitcoin consolidating just shy of its all-time high after a powerful uptrend, and with the fundamental backdrop being so strong, the path of least resistance is overwhelmingly to the upside.
This technical setup creates a powerful psychological feedback loop. As more traders and algorithms spot the tightening bands, they begin to position themselves for the inevitable breakout. This builds a massive amount of potential energy within the market. When the price finally does break through the upper band, it can trigger a cascade of buy orders—from traders entering new long positions, to short-sellers being forced to buy back to cover their losing bets. This rush of buying pressure is what can turn a simple breakout into a parabolic, face-ripping rally.
The anticipation surrounding this move has led to some audacious price targets being discussed. Analysts are now contemplating the possibility of a "false move" to as high as $105,000. The term "false move" in this context is intriguing. It could imply a rapid, almost wick-like surge to that level, driven by extreme speculation and leverage, which might then be followed by a sharp correction to shake out the "paper hands" before a more sustainable climb resumes. Alternatively, it could simply be a way of expressing disbelief at the sheer velocity of the potential move. Whether the target is $105,000 or another figure, the underlying message from the charts is unambiguous: Bitcoin is on the verge of a big move, and the technicals strongly suggest it will be a powerful breakout to the upside, potentially ushering in a new phase of price discovery.
The Confluence of Catalysts: Tariffs, Politics, and The Musk Effect
A primed technical setup is potent on its own, but when combined with powerful external catalysts, it creates the recipe for a perfect storm. Bitcoin's next potential move is not just being driven by its internal market dynamics; it is being pulled forward by a confluence of macroeconomic and political forces that are aligning in its favor.
One of the most significant near-term catalysts is the looming US tariff deadline. Historically, periods of geopolitical tension and economic uncertainty have been incredibly bullish for Bitcoin. Tariffs, trade wars, and protectionist policies create instability in global markets and can erode the value and trust in fiat currencies. As nations engage in economic conflict, savvy investors and even central banks begin to look for non-sovereign, censorship-resistant stores of value to hedge their wealth. Bitcoin, with its decentralized nature and fixed supply, is the ultimate hedge against such fiat currency debasement and geopolitical turmoil. The impending tariff deadline is forcing a global conversation about the stability of the current financial system, and Bitcoin stands to be a primary beneficiary as capital seeks a safe haven from the storm.
Adding fuel to this fire is the upcoming "Crypto Week," a period of heightened focus on the industry through conferences, major announcements, and media coverage. These events act as a gravitational force, pulling the attention of the financial world toward the digital asset space. This concentrated attention almost always leads to increased trading volume and volatility. It creates a self-fulfilling prophecy where the expectation of big news and market moves encourages traders to participate, thereby creating the very volatility they anticipated.
Perhaps the most electrifying and unpredictable catalyst, however, is the re-emergence of Elon Musk's "love" for Bitcoin and the asset's dramatic entrance onto the main stage of American politics. Musk, with his colossal social media following, has a proven and unparalleled ability to influence market sentiment with a single post. His recent teasing of a "Pro-Bitcoin America Party" has sent shockwaves far beyond the crypto community. This move, whether serious or satirical, has injected Bitcoin directly into the heart of the US political discourse. It reframes Bitcoin not just as a financial asset, but as a political symbol—a representation of innovation, decentralization, and freedom from government control.
This has been met with a reaction from other major political figures, including Donald Trump, creating a fascinating push-and-pull. The fact that leading presidential candidates and political influencers are now debating Bitcoin's merits and role in the nation's future is a monumental step in its journey toward mainstream legitimacy. It forces the public and policymakers to take it seriously. This political theater creates an environment where assets perceived as being aligned with pro-growth, pro-innovation, and pro-freedom ideologies can thrive. The emergence of a "BTC Bull Token" or similar concepts tied to this political momentum underscores the new reality: Bitcoin is no longer just a tech story; it is a powerful political and cultural movement, and this new dimension is likely to attract a wave of capital from those who align with its burgeoning ideology.
The Institutional Stamp of Approval: A Corporate Treasury Revolution
While retail excitement and political drama provide the fuel, the institutional adoption of Bitcoin provides the solid, unshakeable foundation for its long-term trajectory. The most powerful recent example of this trend is the announcement from Genius Group, a publicly traded education technology company, that it is increasing its Bitcoin treasury target to a staggering 10,000 BTC. This is not a speculative trade; it is a profound strategic shift in corporate treasury management.
This decision signifies that corporate boards and CFOs are beginning to understand and act upon Bitcoin's value proposition as a superior treasury reserve asset. In an era of persistent inflation and low-to-negative real yields on traditional assets like government bonds, holding large amounts of cash on a balance sheet is a guaranteed way to lose purchasing power. By allocating a portion of its treasury to Bitcoin, Genius Group is taking a proactive step to protect its shareholders' value from the ravages of monetary debasement. It is a declaration of confidence in Bitcoin's long-term potential as a reliable store of value.
The importance of such a move cannot be overstated. It provides a powerful stamp of approval and a case study for thousands of other corporations around the world. When one publicly traded company makes such a bold move and outlines its rationale, it normalizes the strategy. Other CFOs, who may have been hesitant, now have a blueprint to follow and a precedent to point to when presenting the idea to their own boards. This has the potential to unlock a veritable floodgate of corporate capital. Even a small, single-digit percentage allocation from the treasuries of the S&P 500 companies would represent hundreds of billions of dollars of new, sustained buying pressure for Bitcoin. The move by Genius Group is not an isolated event; it is the leading edge of a seismic shift in how the corporate world perceives and utilizes money.
Conclusion: The Dawn of a New Epoch
Bitcoin stands at a historic inflection point. The current period of quiet consolidation is deceptive; beneath the surface, a powerful confluence of forces is converging to launch the asset into its next major chapter. The market's internal structure has never been healthier, with the holdings of early whales being patiently absorbed by a new and committed class of buyers, building a formidable price floor far above previous highs. The technical charts are screaming of an imminent and powerful breakout, with the tightening Bollinger Bands signaling a massive release of energy that heavily favors the upside.
Layered on top of this potent technical and structural setup is a perfect storm of external catalysts. The specter of global economic instability driven by tariffs, the focused attention of a "Crypto Week," the unparalleled influence of figures like Elon Musk, and the shocking but legitimizing entry of Bitcoin into the partisan political arena are all acting as powerful tailwinds. This is all underpinned by the quiet but revolutionary trend of institutional and corporate adoption, which promises to bring waves of new capital into the asset for years to come.
The consolidation will soon end. The question is not about direction, but about magnitude. The forces at play are no longer just about market cycles; they are about a fundamental repricing of a global, non-sovereign asset in a world grappling with economic and political uncertainty. The stage is set for a breakout that could not only shatter previous all-time highs but could also permanently elevate Bitcoin's status, solidifying its role as a cornerstone of the 21st-century financial and political landscape.
XRPUSDT Forming Bullish BreakoutXRPUSDT is showing an interesting setup with a bullish breakout potential that could fuel gains of 60% to 70% or more in the coming weeks and months. The recent price action suggests that XRP is breaking out of a long-standing consolidation pattern, with price pushing above a descending trendline and holding well above key support levels. This breakout is attracting both retail traders and big investors who see Ripple’s strong fundamentals and unique use case in the cross-border payment sector as major catalysts for its long-term growth.
The trading volume has remained healthy, signaling strong market participation and increasing confidence that XRP’s next move could be substantial. If momentum continues, traders can expect a potential rally towards major resistance zones, with increased interest from whales likely to accelerate the bullish scenario. Market sentiment around XRP has also improved thanks to positive developments in its legal battles and expanding partnerships, which add further conviction for investors.
XRP’s performance has historically shown that when it moves, it often does so aggressively, rewarding patient holders and active traders alike. This pattern aligns well with broader altcoin market cycles, where XRP tends to outperform during bullish phases. As always, it’s essential to monitor price action around key levels, adjust stop-losses wisely, and stay updated with market news to make the most of this potential run.
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ETH - Should I go long?Ethereum (ETH) is currently positioned at a critical juncture, with multiple technical and fundamental indicators suggesting the potential for a significant move ahead.
Current Price and Momentum: As of the latest real-time data, ETH is trading at $2,549.97, having recently started a fresh increase above the $2,520 zone. The price is above both the $2,550 level and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average, indicating short-term bullish momentum.
Key Resistance Levels: The immediate resistance is near $2,600, followed by $2,620 and a major barrier at $2,650. A decisive break above $2,650 could open the path toward $2,720 and potentially $2,800 in the near term.
Support Levels: On the downside, $2,520 is a key support zone. A sustained drop below this could trigger declines toward $2,500 or even $2,420, but as long as ETH holds above $2,520, the bullish structure remains intact.
On-Chain and Institutional Signals: Long-term holders have been accumulating ETH, and institutional inflows have surged, with over $750 million invested recently. This accumulation, alongside strong ETF inflows and rising staking activity, points to growing confidence and could act as a catalyst for a major price move.
Technical Patterns: ETH is consolidating above critical moving averages and within bullish chart formations (such as ascending triangles and coiling structures). These patterns often precede significant breakouts, especially when accompanied by increasing trading volumes and improving momentum indicators.
Market Sentiment: While short-term indicators show some cooling, the broader trend remains bullish. Analysts note that if ETH can break above the current resistance cluster, it could ignite a new wave of bullish momentum and set the stage for a broader breakout.
In summary: Ethereum is at a pivotal resistance zone. If it can break and hold above $2,600–$2,650, analysts expect a strong move higher, with targets at $2,800. Institutional inflows, strong on-chain accumulation, and bullish technical setups all support the case for a significant upside move in the coming weeks or months, provided key support levels are maintained.
Note that a possible correction of Bitcoin (which essentially will result in a drop of the entire crypto market) is possible in the next weeks.
#crypto #eth #btc #bitcoin #ethereum #analysis #trading #portfolio #long #algorithm #buysellsignals #tradingsignals #bullrun
BITCOIN CRASH INCOMING!!! (Brace Yourself Now???) I am breaking down MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN and the potential completion of the 4th wave on an leading diagonal which might work as an early warning of a crash towards $93k!
Wait for the confirmations, and play the market with a proper trading strategy that you have backtested enough to be able to say that you will be long-term profitable. That means make sure your trading system is good enough that you always have an edge and a great enough money management system to make sure that you are giving your edge enough space to play out in the long run and be robust against losing streaks!
BTC's Situation, A Comprehensive Analysis !!!Bitcoin is now at a point where it cannot be ignored! In my view, the bullish wave has started after the corrective wave ended. This wave could continue until it breaks the ascending triangle, then with a slight correction, push the price upward again. The current period and the coming days could be crucial in determining the market's trend.
Best regards CobraVanguard.💚
Bitcoin BTC Trade Plan: Watching for Breakout or Pullback Entry📊 Currently watching BTC (Bitcoin) as price action remains bullish overall, but we're approaching a key decision point 🎯
💹 Price is pushing higher, but with some signs of exhaustion after the recent rally ⚠️ — and with the weekend approaching, we could either see a continuation higher or a healthy pullback
I’m keeping an eye on two potential trade scenarios:
1️⃣ A break and clean retest of the recent high, which could offer a continuation long if momentum follows through 🚀
2️⃣ A retracement into equilibrium — a deeper pullback toward fair value 📉 — which could also present a high-probability long setup if confirmed with structure and reaction 📈
Either way, I’m letting the market reveal its hand and waiting for one of these setups to play out before committing 💡
💬 Not financial advice — always assess your own risk and confirm with your own analysis.
BTC: 650 Point Long Trade To 108,650$ (Date: Sat 05 Jul 25)High potential signal as my all signals. Don't miss this opportunity. At least open a trade in demo just to test.
Details:
Entry: Now - 108,100 $
Target Price: 108,650 $
Stop loss: 107,700 $
Trade Ideas:
There is a flag pattern here after a good down trend. So here is possibility for a small pull back till my target price.
Trade Signal:
I provide trade signals here so follow my account and you can check my previous analysis regarding BITCOIN. So don't miss trade opportunity so follow must.
BINANCE:BTCUSDT BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P
ETH: Buying in the DipCME: Micro Ether Futures ( CME:MET1! ), #microfutures
On May 22nd, #Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $111,814. The king of cryptos rallied as bullish sentiment built up behind the most pro-crypto U.S. administration. As of last Friday, bitcoin realized a one-year return of +90.8%. For comparison, holding S&P 500 only yields 11.8% for a year, even after the US stock index made its ATH last week.
Meanwhile, #Ethereum, second only to Bitcoin in the cryptocurrency world, experienced a dramatic decline in 2025. ETH is currently trading around $2,500, down 40% since December. It is a far cry from its ATH of $4,815 on November 9, 2021.
Why Is Ethereum (ETH) Falling?
The most significant challenge facing Ethereum is the proliferation of Layer 2 scaling solutions. Networks such as Arbitrum, Base, and Optimism were developed to address Ethereum's scalability issues, but they've created a revenue problem for the main chain.
When users conduct transactions on these Layer 2 networks, transaction fees flow to third-party organizations rather than to the Ethereum network itself. Revenue diversion has weakened Ethereum's economic model.
Ethereum could counter the revenue erosion by implementing a fee on Layer 2 transactions. However, it would undermine the very purpose of these networks. Layer 2 solutions were designed specifically to reduce transaction costs by processing operations off-chain and submitting only batched results to the main network. Adding fees would increase costs and diminish their competitive advantage.
Increased competition in the blockchain space has further eroded Ethereum’s dominance. Investors have been withdrawing funds from Ethereum and redirecting them to competing projects with potentially better returns or technological advantages.
Future Outlook
Ethereum’s path forward appears challenging. While the platform still hosts thousands of decentralized applications and maintains a large developer community, its economic model is under pressure from multiple directions. Without finding new ways to generate value, Ethereum may continue to lose market share to more nimble competitors.
The platform’s supporters point to upcoming technical improvements and the maturation of the proof-of-stake consensus mechanism as potential catalysts for recovery. The recent approval of staking enabled ETF for Ethereum in Hong Kong is one of the ways forward. However, with increasing competitive pressures, Ethereum faces an uphill battle to reclaim its former status as the undisputed leader in smart contract platforms.
While the future remains challenging, Ethereum still has upside potential at the current price level. As ETH dropped below $1,500 in April, bargain hunters came in to scoop it up. As a result, ETH had a spectacular rebound of 70% in the last three months, outrunning Bitcoin’s 25% gain for the same period.
There are over 17,000 cryptocurrencies in existence, according to Coin Gecko. However, only a handful of them have proven to have a lasting investment value. We could refer to Bitcoin and Ethereum as the digital form of Gold and Silver. Historical trend shows that the spike in gold prices would likely prompts investors to buy silver at a lower cost, helping maintain a stable Gold/Silver price ratio. The same could be true for the BTC/ETH relationship.
For extensive reading, please refer to my Editors’ Picks, The Gold-Silver Ratio Explained, published on TradingView on April 28th.
Recent regulations on #stablecoins in the US and Hong Kong are good news to the crypto space. It legitimates crypto offerings from mainstream financial institutions. Bitcoin is positioned for another big lift as investors reallocate assets into cryptos.
On July 4th, President Trump signed into law the “Big and Beautiful Bill”. Above all, this massive package funds deficit spending and raises the national debit by $5 trillion. While we will carry the debt burden for many years, in the short run, injecting huge liquidity into the economy and the financial market would pop up asset prices.
The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that, as of June 24th, the total open interest for Micro Ether futures are 128,500 contracts.
• Leverage Fund has 94,167 in long, 112,442 in short, and 1,854 in spreading
• The long-short ratio of 0.84 does not provide a good indication of what the “Smart Money” views about Ethereum.
In summary, I hold the view that ETH may regain ground above 3,300 before year end. Investors sharing this bullish view could explore CME’s Micro Ether Futures ( NYSE:MET ).
Long Futures with Stop Loss
Last Friday, the August Ether Futures contract (METQ5) was settled at 2,518. Each contract has a notional value of 0.1 ETH, or a market value of $251.8. To buy or sell 1 contract, a trader is required to post an initial margin of $84. The margining requirement reflects a built-in leverage of 3-to-1. It’s cost-effective to invest with CME MET futures, vs. buying ETH from the spot market.
Let’s use a hypothetical trade to illustrate how the long futures with stop loss strategy would compare with buying spot ETH.
Hypothetical Trade:
• Buy 1 METQ5 contract at 2,518, and set a stop loss at 2,400
• Trader pays $84 for initial margin
High Price Scenario: Ethereum rises to $3,000
• Futures gain will be $48.2 (= (3000-2518) x 0.1)
• Futures return will be +57.4% (= 48.2 / 84)
• This compares to a 19.1% for investing in spot ETH. (= (3000 /2518) – 1)
Low Price Scenario: Ethereum drops to $2,000
• Futures stop loss at 2,400, and the maximum loss is $11.8 (= (2518-2400) x 0.1)
• Futures return will be -14% (=11.8 /84)
• This compares to a 20.6% loss for investing in spot ETH. (= (2000 /2518) – 1)
The above scenarios show that
• When ETH goes up, futures will have higher returns due to its leverage nature.
• When ETH falls, the stoploss will kick in to reduce losses.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Bitcoin UPDATEThe sell is @ 111.200
I think it still has to make a new high, sell is not ready just yet
levels highlighted
BTC/USDT H1 Chart Out look Bitcoin is Now running at near the 107500 and following a short term Bearish pattern on EMA 50 and 200 by using that we can consider on sell side with the given Targets like 107000 which is near the Bitcoin is consolidating and the Final target support is 106000/105000.
Bearish Scenario
1st Target is 107000 ( from here it may make some retest)
2nd Target is 106000( main target).
3rd Target is 105000.
Use stop loss at 108100.
Will Ripple "leave a dent in the universe"?They called us crazy, when we bought xrp at the bottom, in the midst of court cases. What they don't see is that, many TODAY major companies that changed the world (e.g. Apple, Amazon, MSFT etc.) had long term court cases with the SEC before "leaving a dent in the universe". In our opinion, Ripple is next in line.
#xrp #crypto #bitcoin #ripple #banking #blockchain #finance #money #stablecoin #financialsystem
BEARISH DOM + BULLISH CAP = ALT SEASONsimple TA analysis with simple arithmetic operation :
decline of bitcoin Dominance with the rise of market capitale = the season of altcoins and price explosions.
the year 2025 will be profitable, enjoy the summer
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL BINANCE:BTCUSDT INDEX:BTCUSD BITFINEX:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD
Bitcoin Bulls Are Losing Power - Signal To Sell NOW!!!?Bitcoin Bulls seem to be losing power. If this rising wedge aka Contracting triangle starts to break down, the descending triangle we are trading at will resume and MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN might go as low as $93k!!! Is your trading strategy ready for that?
BITCOIN Short From Resistance!
HI,Traders !
#BITCION went up sharply
Made a retest of the
Horizontal resistance level
Of 110026.5 from where we
Are already seeing a local
Bearish reaction so we
Are locally bearish biased
And we will be expecting
A local bearish correction !
Comment and subscribe to help us grow !
BTC – Holding or Rolling?BTC has pushed up from the late June low and is now testing the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement zone from the prior downswing. Price is currently sitting around 109.5K–110K, directly in a high-confluence rejection area. This level aligns with the top of the recent range, 78.6% retracement, Bollinger Band resistance, and the zone where the last breakdown began.
While the move resembles a double bottom or W-pattern on first glance, structure invalidates the bullish case:
The second low was lower than the first, breaking symmetry.
The second high is still lower than the June high near 111.9K.
RSI made a lower high while price made a higher high — classic momentum divergence.
Volume has not increased meaningfully on the bounce, suggesting a lack of strong buyer commitment.
Until BTC reclaims and holds above 111.9K on strong volume, this looks like a lower high inside a broader downtrend.
Short Setup Thesis
Entry Zone:
109.5K–110.5K (zone of rejection, aligned with 78.6% Fib and prior supply)
Stop Loss Zone:
Above 112K–113K (a full reclaim of prior highs would invalidate the setup)
Target Zones:
TP1: 102K–100K (local support range and prior consolidation area)
TP2: 97K–95K (Fibonacci cluster and volume shelf)
TP3: 91K–88K (structure low and potential sweep zone)
Break Trigger / Confirmation:
A daily close below 106K–105K would confirm bearish continuation. Weak retests into this zone would provide additional short entry opportunities.
Navigating BTC the Volatile Path to a Potential $117,000 PeakBitcoin at a Crossroads: Navigating the Volatile Path to a Potential $117,000 Peak
Introduction: A Tale of Two Forces
The world of Bitcoin is once again a theater of high drama. After a breathtaking surge that brought the digital asset tantalizingly close to its all-time high, the market now stands at a pivotal crossroads, caught in a tense tug-of-war between powerful bullish undercurrents and formidable macroeconomic headwinds. On one side, a confluence of unprecedented institutional adoption, potent on-chain signals, and a volatile derivatives market suggests an imminent price explosion. Analysts and investors whisper of a short-term upper bound of $117,000, with some seeing a potential tap of $116,000 as early as July amid a ‘perfect storm’ of macro catalysts. A move to this level would represent a significant 6.45% jump from Bitcoin’s recent price, a leap that seems entirely within reach when viewed through the lens of the asset's internal momentum.
Yet, on the other side stands the unyielding wall of global economic reality. Bitcoin’s recent attempt to decisively conquer the $110,000 level was swiftly reversed as strong U.S. jobs data and other factors tempered expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut. This macroeconomic reality has cast a long shadow over risk assets, including Bitcoin, creating significant resistance at the previous all-time high of around $112,000. Analysts point to an absence of new, retail-driven buyers and the kind of "FOMO-driven greed" that characterized previous bull runs as a key factor pinning the price down.
This creates a fascinating and high-stakes dichotomy. The very structure of the Bitcoin market has undergone a "paradigm shift," with institutional exchange-traded funds (ETFs) providing a steady, relentless stream of demand. At the same time, the asset remains tethered to the decisions of central bankers and the health of the global economy. This article will delve into the intricate layers of this conflict, exploring the powerful bull case built on on-chain data and market structure, the sobering macroeconomic headwinds, the psychological barrier of the all-time high, and the long-term predictions that see Bitcoin potentially reaching $200,000. As the market braces for pivotal events like the upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, the question on every investor's mind is which of these two powerful forces will ultimately dictate Bitcoin's next monumental move.
The Bull Case: A Cauldron of On-Chain and Derivatives Strength
Bitcoin’s impressive rally was not a random speculative whim; it was underpinned by a bedrock of strong on-chain and technical signals that paint a compelling picture of underlying market health and explosive potential. These indicators, which provide a transparent view into the blockchain’s activity, suggest that the current price action is just the beginning.
On-Chain Analysis: The Blockchain's Transparent Ledger
On-chain analysis is the practice of examining the public and immutable data on a blockchain to understand the behavior of network participants. Unlike traditional financial markets, where investor actions are opaque, Bitcoin’s ledger allows for a granular assessment of transaction volumes, wallet balances, and investor profitability, offering a data-driven glimpse into market sentiment.
Two of the most powerful on-chain metrics in this context are the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio and the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR).
The MVRV ratio is a fundamental valuation tool that compares Bitcoin's total market capitalization to its "realized capitalization." While market cap is the current price multiplied by all coins in circulation, realized cap values each coin at the price it was last moved on-chain. Essentially, MVRV compares the current market price to the average cost basis of all investors. A high MVRV ratio suggests the market is overheated, while a ratio below 1.0 signifies that the average investor is underwater, a condition often seen at market bottoms.
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) offers a more immediate look at market behavior by analyzing the profitability of transactions occurring on the network. It is calculated by dividing the sale price of a Bitcoin by the price it was last acquired.
• When SOPR is greater than 1, it means that, on average, coins being sold are in profit.
• When SOPR is less than 1, it means coins are being sold at a loss.
• A SOPR value of 1 acts as a critical psychological level. In bull markets, the market often "bounces" off this line, as investors are reluctant to sell at a loss, creating strong support.
The Derivatives Market: Funding Rates and the Looming Short Squeeze
Beyond the blockchain itself, the cryptocurrency derivatives market provides another layer of bullish sentiment. This market is dominated by perpetual futures contracts, which use a funding rate mechanism to stay tethered to the spot price.
• Positive Funding Rate: When the futures price is higher than the spot price, longs pay shorts, indicating dominant bullish sentiment.
• Negative Funding Rate: When the spot price is higher than the futures price, shorts pay longs, indicating dominant bearish sentiment.
Paradoxically, a deeply negative funding rate can be an extremely bullish contrarian indicator. A crucial historical precedent exists: Bitcoin price rallied 80% the last time BTC funding rates flipped red. When funding rates are negative, it means a large number of traders are shorting the market. If the price begins to rise against them, these short sellers must buy back Bitcoin to close their positions and limit their losses.
This forced buying can trigger a "short squeeze." A large cluster of potential short liquidations has been identified near the $111,320 level, with an estimated $520.31 million in leveraged positions at risk. If the price can push through this zone, it could trigger a cascade of liquidations, providing the fuel to accelerate Bitcoin’s next leg higher into price discovery. This mechanism represents one of the most powerful potential catalysts for a rapid move toward the $116K-$117K target.
The Macroeconomic Maelstrom: A "Perfect Storm" of Headwinds
While Bitcoin’s internal metrics flash green, its path is being obstructed by a formidable storm of macroeconomic factors. In today's interconnected financial world, no asset is immune to the policies of central banks. The recent reversal from the push beyond $110,000 is a stark reminder of this reality, as markets began to discount the odds of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates.
The Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Jitters
For the past several years, the price of Bitcoin has been highly correlated with monetary policy. A policy of low interest rates generally creates a favorable environment for assets like Bitcoin by lowering the opportunity cost of holding them compared to bonds or savings accounts. Conversely, a period of monetary tightening—characterized by higher interest rates—has a negative effect on Bitcoin's price.
The market's sensitivity to this was on full display when strong U.S. economic data reinforced the case for keeping rates "higher for longer" to contain inflation. This immediately took the wind out of Bitcoin’s sails and halted the rally. An unexpected rate cut, however, could send Bitcoin back toward its all-time high of $112,000.
All Eyes on Jackson Hole
This brings into focus the immense importance of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. This annual conference is a crucial event where central bankers from around the globe discuss pressing economic issues and signal future policy directions. Speeches from key figures, particularly the Federal Reserve Chair, are scrutinized by global markets for clues about the future of monetary policy.
The anticipation surrounding the event highlights its high stakes for risk assets. Market participants will be listening for any hint of a dovish pivot (a signal that rate cuts are back on the table) or a hawkish stance (a reinforcement of the "higher for longer" narrative).
• A dovish signal could be the catalyst that reignites Bitcoin's rally by weakening the dollar and sending risk assets soaring.
• A hawkish signal, on the other hand, could reinforce the current headwinds, potentially leading to a deeper correction for Bitcoin.
The Great Wall of $112K: Why All-Time Highs Are Hard to Break
Every seasoned market participant knows that previous all-time highs (ATHs) are not just numbers on a chart; they are formidable psychological barriers. For Bitcoin, the level around $112,000 represents this wall. Breaking through it requires immense momentum, and the current struggle to do so is explained by a critical missing ingredient: widespread, retail-driven Fear of Missing Out (FOMO).
The Psychology of an All-Time High
An ATH represents a point of maximum financial opportunity and maximum regret. This creates a powerful and complex dynamic:
1. Profit-Taking: Long-term holders and traders who bought at lower prices see the ATH as a prime opportunity to realize their gains.
2. Break-Even Selling: Investors who bought at or near the previous peak may be eager to sell as soon as their position returns to break-even.
3. Hesitation from New Buyers: For new investors, buying at an all-time high feels inherently risky, leading to hesitation.
Overcoming this selling pressure requires a massive wave of new demand, a force often fueled by pure, unadulterated FOMO.
The Absence of FOMO-Driven Greed
FOMO, or the "Fear of Missing Out," is the force that turns a rally into a parabolic ascent, characterized by a surge in retail interest and media saturation. Analysts suggest that a key reason Bitcoin can’t break the $112K all-time high is the absence of new buyers and FOMO-driven greed. While there have been spikes in retail enthusiasm, the kind of euphoric mania seen at the peak of previous cycles has yet to fully materialize in 2025. Without that surge of irrational exuberance, there may not be enough buying pressure to absorb the natural selling that occurs at an all-time high, creating a stalemate.
The Paradigm Shift: How Institutional ETFs Changed the Game
While the lack of retail FOMO explains the resistance at the all-time high, the very reason Bitcoin reached this level so quickly is due to a fundamental, game-changing development: the approval and launch of spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States. This event represents a true "paradigm shift" in market structure, providing a powerful counterbalance to the whims of retail sentiment.
A spot Bitcoin ETF directly holds Bitcoin and allows investors to gain exposure through traditional brokerage accounts, dramatically simplifying the investment process. This has had a revolutionary impact:
1. Accessibility and Legitimacy: ETFs have democratized access to Bitcoin for a massive new audience and conferred a new level of legitimacy on the asset class.
2. Unlocking Institutional Capital: Most importantly, ETFs created a regulated pathway for institutional investors to allocate capital to Bitcoin.
The impact has been staggering, with massive ETF inflows directly fueling Bitcoin's price appreciation. In a recent two-month period, for instance, U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $10 billion in inflows. This is not the fickle demand of a retail FOMO cycle; it is the steady, calculated allocation of capital from major financial players, providing a strong floor for the price.
Gazing into the Crystal Ball: Near and Long-Term Price Horizons
With these conflicting forces shaping the market, analysts are looking at both short-term technical targets and long-term fundamental models to chart a potential path forward.
Short-Term Targets: The Path to $117,000
The immediate upper bound for Bitcoin is pegged by many analysts at $117,000, with some suggesting a move to $116K in July is possible. This target is derived from a combination of technical analysis, historical seasonal trends, and the potential for a short squeeze. A decisive break above the $112,000 all-time high would clear the path for a rapid move toward this level.
The Long-Term Vision: A $200,000 Call
Looking further ahead, some of the most bullish predictions from institutional players call for Bitcoin to hit $200,000 by the end of 2025. This forecast is not based on short-term chart patterns but on a fundamental assessment of supply and demand in this new era. The reasoning is that there is simply too much institutional demand to keep prices flat for long, a trend driven by the continued success of spot Bitcoin ETFs and growing regulatory clarity.
Interestingly, this bullish institutional sentiment for Bitcoin is not always extended to other major cryptocurrencies. Some outlooks are less confident that assets like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) will hit new all-time highs this year. Challenges such as network reliability issues and the lack of similar institutional products are cited as reasons for a more tempered outlook on these other assets. This suggests a potential future where Bitcoin's performance decouples from the broader altcoin market, driven primarily by its unique status as an institutional-grade digital asset.
Conclusion: The Great Tension and the Path Forward
Bitcoin's current market position is one of profound tension. In the world of its own blockchain and market structure, the signals are bullish. A new era of institutional demand, evidenced by billions flowing into spot ETFs, has created a paradigm shift. This is reinforced by a derivatives market primed for a potential short squeeze.
However, Bitcoin does not exist in a vacuum. It is also a participant in the broader financial ecosystem, where a hawkish Federal Reserve has put a damper on risk-on sentiment. This macroeconomic resistance is amplified by the psychological barrier of the all-time high, where natural profit-taking meets the absence of the retail-driven FOMO that defined past cycles.
The resolution of this conflict will define the next chapter for Bitcoin. A catalyst could come from the Jackson Hole Symposium, a sudden acceleration in ETF inflows, or a shift in the macroeconomic landscape. What is certain is that Bitcoin is no longer just a retail phenomenon; it is a maturing asset on the global stage, navigating a complex interplay of internal strength and external pressures. Whether it reaches $117,000 in the coming months or faces a setback, its journey will be a masterclass in the collision of technology, finance, and human psychology.
BTC: Long Position1W buy signal at $109K. Entered Long Position & currently 10 per cent in profit. BTC is going for a new ATH in the next days.
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Breaking: Bitcoin Just Broke the $110k Resistant Next Top $115kThe price of the first crypto currency ever created saw a noteworthy uptick to reclaim the $110k price point however, the move was short-lived as the asset retraced to $109k mark but present price chart depicts a move to the $115k resistant point in the short term.
With the Relative strength index (RSI) at 63, Bitcoin might be inches away from claiming the $115k pivot amidst build up momentum and institutional adoption. further bullish metrics include the asset trading above the 50, 100 and 200-day Moving Averages (MA) respectfully.
