Bitcoinprice
Bitcoin - almost ready to go up but not yetWhen I analyse Bitcoin, I really focus on MACD. I don't trade Bitcoin. I use technical analysis to find a good entry point to buy Bitcoin.
I use the following conditions to find a good entry point to buy Bitcoin:
1) MACD lines are properly crossed and the angles of MACD lines are pointing up in a daily chart. Almost crossed is not good enough. The lines need to properly crossed ideally above 0 line.
2) Only if the first condition is met, I look at RSI and Stochastic (9,3,3) in the same chart. Two lines in RSI need to be properly crossed and the lines are about to or crossed above 50 level, and Stochastic (9,3,3) is not in overbought territory.
3) Go to the weekly chart and look at Stochastic (9,3,3). If weekly stochastic lines are crossed and moving upward from below 50 level.
BTC retested both previous monthly and weekly low and the price seems to be moving up. However, it still needs to cross above the previous higher high at around 100k zone which is also the previous weekly and monthly mid price area. The current set up is very similar to the set ups on the 21st April 24 and 01 July 24 where I drew blue vertical lines in the chart. At these times, BTC looked like it was finally about to go up but ended up having another dip. If you look at MACD in those two points (marked in blue square), you can see daily MACD lines looked like they were about to cross but didn't and the stochastic in the weekly chart was still pointing downwards. There is a chance the scenario is playing out right now. I think Bitcoin will eventually start to move up, but before that next leg up, it might have another dip (minor bear trap).
Crypto Alpha Report - January 02, 2025Happy Thursday, friends. Today, I want to reflect on opportunity costs and the risks of being spread too thin.
Regarding investing, almost all traditional education preaches the value of a ‘diversified portfolio.’ While that is a fantastic concept, if you’ve already made it with millions in the bank, the actual reality is that most of us are still grinding to get there.
For those of us who haven’t ‘made it,’ diversification can protect wealth, but it will not rapidly grow it. This is also true in trading, but the implications of a ‘diversified approach’ in trading is even more dangerous, particularly in crypto.
The reality is many of us overestimate our capabilities and underestimate the time it will take to do something. Preparing a strategy takes time. Scanning the markets and researching new projects takes time.
And for every different sector in crypto, for every new hype cycle, there is a new meta, a new alpha, new skills to learn, new strategies to develop, and new tools to learn how to use.
A year ago, I had never even heard of GMGN, and didn’t track social metrics as a key part of my memecoin strategy - now it’s something I do every day.
You must guard your time and focus because a million things are vying for your attention daily. The risk of trying to learn too many things is that you become spread too thin, mediocre at many things, but not truly great at one thing that can exponentially increase your wealth.
The same is true for your investments; spread yourself too thin, and you’ll get the average return of the market instead of the punctuated gains you seek. You’ll also drive yourself crazy trying to keep up with all those positions daily.
I find 5-10 active positions are what I can effectively manage. More than that, I start to lose focus, and I see a feeling of anxiety creeping in. I feel most powerful and effective when they’re on the lower end of that range.
In summary, you only have so much time in the day. Don’t underestimate how difficult and time-consuming it can be to get competent in a new skill. Don’t underestimate how much mental effort it takes to manage multiple positions. Keep things simple, limit your number of positions, wait for the right opportunities to come to you, and bet big on them with sound risk management.
Market Update
Stablecoin Dominance
This metric fell by -2.28% today. Not a lower low, but three significant days of moving down, which favors our risk-on assets.
Bitcoin + Stablecoin Dominance
We are putting in a Lower Low today, but we are showing some upside pressure as we move into the Daily Close. Tentatively bullish for a continuation of altcoins.
Altcoin Performance Relative to Bitcoin
Went for a breakout today, but so far, it has failed. Selling pressure on alts is coming this evening as we head into Daily Close. It's still tentatively bullish for altcoin continuation.
Bitcoin
Trends
5M: Neutral
30M: Bullish
1H: Bullish
4H: Bearish
D: Bullish
Bitcoin has put in a nice movement off its lows of $92,000, rallying to almost $98,000. While a good start, Bitcoin faces stiff resistance and volatility, which has increased dramatically in the short term. This is the first Bull Trap area, and Bitcoin needs to hold above $94-$95K on any pullback, or we risk a movement below $90,000.
Key Levels
POC: $93,640
VWAP: $96,422
Value Area High: $97,412 - $98,995
Value Area Low: $95,433 - $94,482
Strategy
Bitcoin faces its first wave of significant distribution as we approach $98,000. This is the first strong uptrend we’ve seen in Bitcoin for a while, and it has not reversed yet, but it is hinting at it. Strong buys have stepped in between $96,200 to $96,800. If Bitcoin loses short-term momentum overnight, then it is critical that we put in a Higher Low above $93,000. Trading lower than $93,000 marks this as a bull trap and essentially confirms that we will experience a Lower Low in Bitcoin’s price rather than a bullish two weeks.
For now, continue to hold longs opened up below $95,000. For new long positions, I would strictly manage risk at $96,000.
Bitcoin - It Will Reach $100.000!Bitcoin ( BITSTAMP:BTCUSD ) will break out soon:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Everything, and I literally mean everything, is bullish on Bitcoin. The previous cycles, timeframes, market structure and price action are all pointing towards the continuation of the bull run which started in 2023. And a breakout above the all time high, is the next trigger.
Levels to watch: $70.000, $100.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
BTC/USD Short: FibCloud Rejection and 200MA TargetOn the 8-hour BTC/USD timeframe, I have executed a short position following a clear rejection from the FibCloud, signaling strong resistance at this level. The price action showcases a classic flip of old support into new resistance, further solidifying bearish momentum.
My target for this trade is the $90,000 price zone, aligning with the 200MA on the 8-hour chart. Additionally, order flow data confirms significant sell-side activity, with large orders clustered between the $90,000 and $89,000 levels, providing further confluence for this setup.
The trade is structured to capitalize on the retracement move, with the potential for price consolidation or reversal upon hitting the $90K psychological and technical support zone.
Technicals:
• Entry Trigger: Rejection from FibCloud and resistance flip.
• Target: $90,000 (aligned with the 200MA and key order flow levels).
• Stop Loss: Positioned above the FibCloud to mitigate risk.
• Order Flow Insight: Large sell orders between $90,000–$89,000 add weight to the bearish scenario.
This setup emphasizes a disciplined approach to risk management, leveraging technical and order flow alignment for optimal execution. Stay sharp, and remember to pay yourself!
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Short Bitcoin (BTC) (For Study Purpose Only)Short Recommendation
Entry Level: Below $94,000
Stop Loss (SL): $111,111
This surge has been largely attributed to President-elect Donald Trump's pro-cryptocurrency stance, including promises of deregulation and the establishment of a national strategic Bitcoin reserve.
However, concerns are emerging regarding Bitcoin's current valuation. Analysts warn that the market may be overheating, with some predicting a potential correction of up to 35%.
COINTELEGRAPH
Additionally, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has stated that the U.S. central bank cannot hold Bitcoin, which has introduced uncertainty into the market.
This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Cryptocurrency trading involves significant risk, including the potential loss of capital. Ensure to evaluate your risk tolerance and conduct thorough research.
Bitcoin 1.618 Fib Extension Targets - $169K to $194K BTCEvery Bitcoin wave terminated at the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of subwaves i through iii
Will it happen again? Or will we terminate at the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of waves 1 through 3 instead?
I've marked this sweet spot in red as the ideal sell zone for me
This sweet spot is between $169K and $194K
I find these to be very reasonable price targets for BTC compared to what else is out there
BTCUSDT LongBased on the previous analysis, we anticipated that the price might be bearish based on the retracement it made on the 50% mark.
Well, it retraced but did not manage to go through the Order Block at 92150, which might be a signature that the price might be drawn to the DOL at 100,000
Entry at 95600, tp 1 at 97570 and Tp 2 at 100,700 and SL 93750.
BITCOIN BEARISH FLAG BREAKOUT Bitcoin on H1 timeframe shows a strong potential signal sell due to formation of bearish flag breakout,This potentially attracts more sellers in the next trading days
Entry:94000.3
Target 1: 90784.1
Target 2: 86564.6
Target 3: 79813.2
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Bitcoin Analysis (1 hour time frame)According to my personal analysis I observes a clever bearish trend here.
Read for more details
Note: This post is for educational purpose only. I am not a certified trader or a financial advisor
1. Key Observations on the Chart
Resistance Zone:
The price is near $95,300, which is a resistance level (red zone). The chart shows that the price is struggling to go above this level. This often indicates that sellers are stronger than buyers at this point.
Support Zones:
Below the current price, there are green zones that represent support levels. These are areas where the price may stop falling if it moves downward because buyers may step in.
Indicators:
The Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) (blue and yellow lines) are currently below the price, showing that the market is still bullish for now.
The CCI (Commodity Channel Index) at the bottom of the chart is coming down from a high level, which could mean that the buying pressure is reducing.
---
2. What Does This Mean?
If the price fails to break above $95,300 (the red zone), it is likely to go down toward the green zones (support levels).
The red arrows drawn on the chart suggest the expectation of a bearish movement (price falling) toward the lower green zones if resistance holds.
---
3. Possible Scenarios
Scenario 1: Bearish Trend (Price Falls)
The price fails to break the resistance ($95,300).
It starts to move downward toward the first support zone around $94,400–$94,300.
If this level is broken, the price could fall further to the second support zone near $93,000.
Scenario 2: Bullish Trend (Price Rises)
If the price breaks above the resistance at $95,300 and stays above it, the market might continue upward toward $96,000 or higher.
---
4. What to Watch For?
Price Behavior Around $95,300:
If the price forms long wicks (indicating rejection) or red candles, it’s likely to fall.
If the price closes strongly above this level, it might continue upward.
Support Zones:
Watch if the price holds or breaks the support levels below ($94,400 and $93,000).
---
Conclusion
The chart currently suggests a bearish possibility because:
1. The price is facing resistance.
2. Momentum (CCI) is reducing.
3. The drawn arrows show an expected downward move.
However, you should wait for confirmation from the next price movements before making any decisions.
Bitcoin Testing a Difficult LevelJust two days ago, we were bullish in the short term at GETTEX:92K , identifying it as a solid support level. Since then, BTC has risen nearly 4%, but now it’s time to exercise caution.
Here’s why:
• Bitcoin is currently hitting the 50-day moving average and the Bollinger Bands, which are acting as resistance.
• This level previously served as a support line four times and has now become a resistance line three times.
While I don’t believe this is an insurmountable barrier for BTC, it may be too early for the price to break through this level decisively.
Considering the liquidity shortage following the Santa Rally and volume levels that are average or below, I anticipate a short-term downside. A small short position might make sense for a limited timeframe (up to a day).
That said, shorting isn’t my preferred strategy, and I recommend caution. Personally, I’m staying out of this trade for now, and I suggest you do the same unless you’re confident in your analysis and being ready to bet against the whole crypto community.
Let’s wait for a retest.
Yours sincerely,
Mister iM
Crypto Alpha Report (January 1)Monday Alpha Report
2025 01 01
Happy New Year to you all! 2024 was an unmitigated year of prosperity and profit for our community, and it will only get better in 2025.
Executive Summary:
-Altcoins continue to outperform Bitcoin. While not giving full credence to the idea of alt season, it is slowly beginning to materialize as key metrics evolve.
-High probability of Bitcoin rallying into Trump’s inauguration; however, caution is still warranted as downside risks are still strong.
-Ethereum is likely to continue to underperform Bitcoin in 2025.
-AI Agents continue to explode, and you should be allocated.
Macro:
Stablecoin Dominance
6.00% still stands as resistance, keeping this metric from pushing us into bearish territory. The bulls do not want this metric in an uptrend, and as the 30 MA creeps closer to the 50 MA, we need to be vigilant for a breakout on this metric to confirm a breakout to test the 200 SMA. For now, the market is indecisive.
Stablecoin + Bitcoin Dominance
This metric wants to continue the bearish trend, which would bode well for altcoin positions. A resumed downtrend in this metric will correlate to rising altcoin prices, so altcoins, for now, are still a better play than Bitcoin.
Altcoin Price Performance vs. Bitcoin
Daily momentum returns to the upside, signaling a potential breakout on this metric after putting in a Higher Low. A pushback up to re-test the long-term downtrend resistance will mean a return to the froth of the altcoin markets.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s price is consolidating, with the Daily Timeframe showing a potential reversal.
Trends:
5M: Bullish
30M: Bullish
1H: Neutral
4H: Bearish
Price must close a 4H candle above $95,000 to strengthen the reversal narrative. That close would also confirm the potential Adam & Eve reversal pattern in the same timeframe. Volatility has dropped significantly on the Daily and 4H time frame, and price has found support at $93,000.
Key Levels:
POC: $93,727
VWAP: $93,676
Value Area High: $94,337 - $94,700
Value Area Low: $93,730 - $92,851
Strategy:
When Bitcoin is in a strong uptrend, it closes its Weekly and Monthly Candles very close to their highs. When Bitcoin’s strength wanes, it begins closing much lower than its highs, as seen in the last two weekly and December’s monthly candles.
In other words, when Bitcoin is no longer strongly uptrending, as it is now, it tends to pump during the beginning of the month and sell off into the later half of the month. This aligns perfectly with the upcoming catalyst of Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 47th President of the United States. Anticipating a “buy the rumor, sell the news” type situation, with a potential bull trap emerging in the latter half of this month.
While downside risks are still very evident, given that we are trading below the 4H Moving Averages, the Daily Timeframe shows momentum returning to the upside following a bounce off the 60 DMA.
Should the current reversal play out, I expect price to make a run to $100,000 over the next two weeks and potentially higher. We should be cautious of a bull trap at that time.
Risk-hungry traders could begin starting a position with invalidation below $93,000 or wait for a 4H close above $95,000 and 4H momentum to be regained.
Altcoins:
I see altcoins performing well also over the next two weeks, likely front-running Trump’s inauguration same as Bitcoin. Again, downside risk is real, but we saw some strong buybacks today.
XRP - Target of $2.70.
ENA - Target of $1.20.
HBAR - Target of $0.35.
FTM - Target of $0.96.
Again, I’m cautiously optimistic. I cycled about 30% of my portfolio into altcoins today, 20% into AI Agents (Zerebro, SPORE, Pillzumi, Nothing, YNE, SEN), and the rest into Bitcoin. We’re probably bottomed out for now, but I will cut Bitcoin and alts fast if we start heading for the lows again. We will hold AI Agents until we lose momentum, but that’s the meta play for this year.
IBITUSDT Analysis: Red Box Breakout PotentialIn IBITUSDT, the red box signifies a critical resistance zone. If price breaks and retests this level, it may present a long entry opportunity . That said, my overall expectation is for the correction to deepen further before significant upward movement.
Key Points:
Red Box Resistance: Monitor for a breakout and retest to confirm a potential long setup.
Deeper Correction Likely: Current market conditions suggest the correction could continue before recovery.
Confirmation Indicators: I will utilize CDV, liquidity heatmaps, volume profiles, volume footprints, and upward market structure breaks in lower time frames to validate entries.
Learn With Me: If you want to understand how to leverage CDV, liquidity heatmaps, volume profiles, and volume footprints for accurate market analysis, feel free to DM me.
Reminder: Always manage your risk and look for confirmation before taking any trades.
If this analysis helps you, please don’t forget to boost and comment. Your support inspires me to share more valuable insights!
If you think this analysis helps you, please don't forget to boost and comment on this. These motivate me to share more insights with you!
I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions.
My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all, but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups.
If you would like to learn how to use the heatmap, cumulative volume delta and volume footprint techniques that I use below to determine very accurate demand regions, you can send me a private message. I help anyone who wants it completely free of charge.
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I stopped adding to the list because it's kinda tiring to add 5-10 charts in every move but you can check my profile and see that it goes on..
Ether Poised to Outshine Bitcoin in 2025: A Deep Dive
The cryptocurrency market is a dynamic and ever-evolving space, with Bitcoin and Ether leading the charge. While Bitcoin has long held the crown as the dominant cryptocurrency, Ether, the native cryptocurrency of the Ethereum network, is increasingly being seen as a strong contender for future growth and potential market dominance. Several factors suggest that 2025 could be the year that Ether truly comes into its own, potentially outperforming Bitcoin in terms of price appreciation and adoption.
Ethereum's Technological Advancements
Ethereum's shift to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus mechanism with the Merge in 2022 was a landmark event. This transition significantly reduced Ethereum's energy consumption and laid the groundwork for future scalability improvements. The upcoming "Surge," "Verge," "Purge," and "Splurge" upgrades aim to enhance Ethereum's transaction processing capabilities further, making it more efficient and cost-effective for users. These technological advancements are crucial for Ethereum's long-term growth and its ability to handle increasing transaction volumes.
The Rise of Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and NFTs
Ethereum's blockchain serves as the foundation for a vast ecosystem of decentralized applications (dApps), including DeFi protocols and non-fungible tokens (NFTs). The DeFi sector has witnessed explosive growth in recent years, with Ethereum leading the way in terms of total value locked (TVL). NFTs have also gained immense popularity, with Ethereum being the primary platform for their creation and trading. The continued growth of these sectors is expected to drive demand for Ether, as it is the primary currency used within the Ethereum ecosystem.
Institutional Adoption and Regulatory Clarity
Institutional investors are increasingly showing interest in the cryptocurrency market, and Ethereum is attracting a significant portion of this attention. The approval of spot Ether ETFs in mid-2024 has further legitimized Ether as an investment asset, making it more accessible to both institutional and retail investors. As regulatory clarity surrounding cryptocurrencies improves, institutional adoption is expected to accelerate, further driving demand for Ether.
Bitcoin's Limitations and Challenges
While Bitcoin remains the most well-known cryptocurrency, it faces certain limitations that could hinder its growth potential. Bitcoin's primary use case is as a store of value and a digital currency, while Ethereum offers a much broader range of functionalities through its smart contract capabilities. Additionally, Bitcoin's energy-intensive proof-of-work (PoW) consensus mechanism has raised environmental concerns, which could become a more significant issue as regulatory scrutiny on cryptocurrencies intensifies.
Ether's Potential for Outperformance
Several analysts and industry experts believe that Ether has the potential to outperform Bitcoin in 2025. The combination of Ethereum's technological advancements, the growth of DeFi and NFTs, increasing institutional adoption, and the limitations of Bitcoin's technology could create a perfect storm for Ether's price appreciation. While Bitcoin is expected to continue its growth trajectory, Ether's unique value proposition and its central role in the expanding Web3 ecosystem could give it a significant edge.
Conclusion
The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, and predicting future price movements with certainty is impossible. However, based on the current trends and developments, Ether appears to be well-positioned for significant growth in 2025. The Ethereum network's ongoing technological advancements, its thriving ecosystem of dApps, and the increasing interest from institutional investors all point towards a bright future for Ether. While Bitcoin will likely remain a dominant force in the cryptocurrency market, Ether's potential for outperformance in 2025 cannot be ignored.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should conduct their research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Technical Analysis: Bitcoin (BTC) – Regular Bearish DivergenceTechnical Analysis: Bitcoin (BTC) – Regular Bearish Divergence
Hello!
T he recent technical analysis for Bitcoin (BTC) highlights the presence of a regular bearish divergence between the price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator. This divergence, marked by the yellow lines on the chart, signals a potential reversal in the short-term trend and suggests a bearish outlook for the coming days or weeks.
Understanding the Divergence
A regular bearish divergence occurs when the price of an asset forms higher highs, while the RSI forms lower highs. This indicates weakening momentum, even as the price reaches new peaks. The yellow lines on the TradingView chart clearly illustrate this pattern for Bitcoin.
Price Action: Bitcoin has recorded higher highs on the price chart.
RSI Behavior: The RSI indicator, however, has failed to mirror this pattern, instead forming lower highs. This discrepancy points to diminishing bullish momentum and the likelihood of an upcoming price correction.
Short-Term Bearish Implications
Given the regular bearish divergence, Bitcoin’s price is expected to experience a pullback in the short term. Traders should be cautious, as this divergence often precedes a period of downward movement. Key support levels, such as $93,000 and $92,000, should be monitored closely to assess the depth of the correction.
Long-Term Bullish Outlook
While the short-term trend leans bearish, the long-term perspective for Bitcoin remains bullish. Several macroeconomic factors, including increasing institutional adoption, favorable regulatory developments, and a growing use case for cryptocurrencies, continue to support the long-term upward trajectory of BTC. This macroeconomic backdrop suggests that any short-term price corrections could present buying opportunities for long-term investors.
Key Takeaways
The yellow lines on the TradingView chart highlight a regular bearish divergence between Bitcoin’s price and the RSI indicator.
This divergence signals a likely short-term bearish trend, with a potential price correction on the horizon.
Long-term trends remain bullish, supported by macroeconomic factors and Bitcoin’s robust fundamentals.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Regards,
Ely
HEAD AND SHOULDERS: NOT JUST A SHAMPOO Alright, traders, buckle up. 🚀 What you’re looking at isn’t just a chart—it’s a warning shot. 💥
📉 Head and Shoulders? Classic textbook stuff. But don’t get comfortable. That neckline at 68,285 isn’t just a pretty yellow line—it’s the price’s last line of defense before it nosedives into the abyss. 🕳️
Let’s connect the dots:
Momentum? Fading faster than New Year’s resolutions. 🗓️ (👀 at that RSI—she’s screaming bearish.)
Buyers? They’re running out of steam, and it’s not looking pretty for the bulls. 🐂💨
But here’s the kicker: 🎯 When (not if) that line breaks, the price could freefall faster than your hopes in a Monday morning meeting. 💸📉
So, what’s your play? 🤔
Sit there, fingers crossed 🤞, hoping the neckline holds? Or take action, position yourself, and ride the wave down like the shark 🦈 you are?
Your choice. But remember—trading isn’t about hoping; it’s about acting. 💪
Let’s see who’s ready to capitalize and who’s stuck waiting on miracles. 👀
💬 Feel free to screenshot this when the price hits new lows and say you were here first.
Bitcoin appears to be stalling at the Fibonacci level.The anticipated Santa rally did not materialize, highlighting weakness in the community. The much-discussed $100k level now seems unattainable as we close out 2024. However, the focus has shifted to maintaining BTC at GETTEX:92K —a level that appear particularly strong.
This GETTEX:92K level has acted as resistance four times in the past and is now serving as support for the fourth time. Interestingly, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level aligns with this zone, adding to its significance.
The Bollinger Bands indicate an extreme situation, with prices moving beyond the range of the past 20 candles.
In just two weeks, BTC is down almost 14% from its all-time high (ATH).
In my view, this situation is far from resolved, and 2025 may begin with even weaker dynamics. Why? Financial market fundamentals are deteriorating, the festive period is over, and the next two months are historically the most challenging and inactive.