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Quantum Doom for Bitcoin?Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency known for its promise of a decentralized structure, faces an existential crisis due to advances in quantum computing that threaten its cryptographic foundation. The article "Bitcoin's Imminent Collapse: The Quantum Threat and Cryptographic Vulnerabilities" outlines a convergence of risks – technological breakthroughs, government influence, and market dynamics – that could potentially bring Bitcoin's value to zero. At the heart of the danger lies the SHA-256 algorithm, which secures the Bitcoin blockchain. Quantum computers, such as those from D-Wave, which claimed to have achieved "quantum supremacy" in 2025, may soon be able to reverse the hashing operation, revealing private keys and destabilizing the entire network. This potential breach, known as "Q-Day," could severely damage trust in Bitcoin and lead to a mass exodus of investors. The forecast becomes even more alarming given the mysterious origin of SHA-256, developed by the NSA (U.S. National Security Agency) and standardized by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). The article raises disturbing questions about the possibility that the NSA possesses unknown vulnerabilities or "backdoors" within the algorithm. Past seizures of Bitcoin by the U.S. government, such as the recovery of a hacker's wallet in 2021, suggest an extraordinary ability to bypass its security – perhaps through undisclosed inside knowledge. Meanwhile, NIST's push for post-quantum cryptography (PQC) hints at the impending obsolescence of SHA-256, but Bitcoin's failure to adopt these alternatives critically exposes it. This lack of preparedness increases the risk, as rivals with quantum computers could act before defenses are strengthened. Market signals add another layer of concern. The approval of Bitcoin ETFs in 2023 by financial giants like BlackRock and Vanguard suggests a strategic move where institutional players offload risks onto less experienced retail investors. Combined with repeated government seizures that cast doubt on Bitcoin's anonymity, a scenario is emerging where the cryptocurrency stands on the brink. The conclusion is that Bitcoin's vision of decentralization may not survive this perfect storm – a quantum threat, cryptographic weaknesses, and orchestrated market shifts. For stakeholders, the message is clear: adapt quickly or risk potential collapse.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by UDIS_View
Bitcoin - Med-Term OutlookThe current BINANCE:BTCUSDT chart is forming an EXP model (turquoise), indicating a potential correction before the next phase of active growth. Main Scenario The most likely development suggests a price retracement to the $80,845 – $77,890 range (purple zone), corresponding to unclosed gaps on CME. This range is positioned above the 100% level of the model ($75,949), making it an optimal area for the completion of the correction before the continuation of the upward movement. Two possible correction paths: 1️⃣ Decline from current levels – BTC gradually breaks local support, tests the 4th point of the model (~$91,341), and then moves towards the CME Gap area. 2️⃣ ATH breakout ($109,354) before a decline – A short-term rally is possible before a deep correction into the $80,000 – $77,000 range. After testing this zone, a reversal movement may form, with targets at the 1st point of the model ($109,354) and beyond. Final confirmation of the uptrend will depend on further market dynamics. Once this cycle is completed, a transition to the altcoin growth phase can be expected. Secondary Scenario Under favorable conditions, BTC may avoid a correction into the CME Gap zone and continue its upward movement without retesting support levels. However, in the current market structure, this scenario remains less probable. Alternative Scenario In the event of an extended correction, BTC could break the 100% model level ($75,949) and test the 200% level ($63,226). Such a development may occur due to external market shocks, leading to mass liquidations of margin positions. However, even in this case, a rapid price recovery is expected.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TSFC
2
Bitcoin Weekly SMA are finally into Sequential order -and now ?A nice simple post here. As you can see, in Late January, the 5 main SMA ( Simple Moving Averages) finaly got into sequential order Under PA This is a sign that PA is bullish. As you can see, in September 202, this happened and PA began its rise after a sharp drop just before hand. It is a bit different this time in that we have dropped AFTER that SMA order was made. But it is still a Good sign HOWEVER - what is important to note, is how PA has fallen below that 21 and we are currently hitting off the 50, searching for Support again. I remain BULLISH and I am sure that within a few weeks, we shall move back over that 21. From were the SMA went into order in 2020, it took about 6 months to reach the first ATH in 2021 PA is rising Much slower than in that cycle but If that repeats, we can see a New Real ATH around July / August I would say that is too early to be honest and so I expect larter. As I said, PA is rising slower this time around. But, anyway, Good News that the SMA have remained in order so far... Something to look forward to
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin's local perspective 17.03.2025In Friday's analysis "How Trump's Policy Will Impact the Crypto Market", we presented a bearish model for the medium-term perspective👇 Today, our key focus is on the $78,300 level (the 4th point of our model), which serves as significant support. It's important to note the presence of an unfilled gap on CME at the $85,905 level ($85,943 in index terms)👇 We assess the probability of closing this gap in the near term as high – either from current positions or after retesting the $78,300 level. How will we act? If price moves toward $85,943 from current levels, we plan to partially close our #ETH position that was accumulated during the March 11 decline. In the scenario of a retest of $78,300, we will consider opening a long position on #BTC with a target of $85,943.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TSFC
1
Scallop (SCA) Potential 200x Gains by next bull run Current Market Overview: Current Price: $0.07 Market Cap: $8M Target Market Cap: $200M+ Potential Growth: 25x - 200x Showing strong accumulation signals, indicating that most weak hands have already exited. With whales now in control, the price action suggests an imminent breakout in the coming bull run. Key Observations: ✅ Deep Accumulation Phase: The price has been suppressed for a long time, suggesting all early holders have been flushed out. ✅ Whale Accumulation: With fewer retail traders, whales can now dictate price action, leading to a controlled rally. ✅ Bull Market Catalyst: If the Bitcoin cycle and altcoin season play out as expected, SCLP could experience parabolic growth. Price Targets Based on Market Structure: TP1: $0.25 → Initial breakout level (6.5x from current price) TP2: $0.60 → Strong resistance (15x) TP3: $6.00 → Major psychological level (85x) TP4: $28.00+ → Full bull cycle potential (400x+) Market Cap Projections: At $1.75 (25x Growth): ~$200M market cap At $6.00 (85x Growth): ~$700M market cap At $28.00 (400x Growth): ~ SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:3B market cap
Long
by AcrosViros
BITCOIN TRENDS with Heiken Ashi candles & Trend indicator ADX Why HEIKEN ASHI Candles ? Heikin Ashi is a charting technique that can be used to predict future price movements. It is similar to traditional candlestick charts. However, unlike a regular candlestick chart, the Heikin Ashi chart tries to filter out some of the market noise by smoothing out strong price swings to better identify trend movements in the market. ( Source TradingView ) What is ADX ? The ADX indicator measures trend strength without indicating direction. It is derived from the Positive Directional Movement (+DI) and Negative Directional Movement (-DI): +DI (Positive Directional Index): Measures upward price movement. -DI (Negative Directional Index): Measures downward price movement. ADX Value: Higher values indicate stronger trends, regardless of direction. ( Source TradingView) To summarise, Heiken Ashi candles filter out Noise and help identify Trend Direction ADX shows you Trend Strength - NEVER the direction of Trend, using prince index. OK, so now we ready. The main chart has 2 Vertical Bold lines that will be explained in a Bit but Note where they are on the Chart The one on the left is near where the Rise in PA turns and becomes a Ranging PA- PA slowed right on that line. The 2nd line is near the TOP and before the point where PA entered a descending channel that leads us to where we are currently Note on the chart, the Orange dotted line. This is the BASIS line of the Bollinger bands. This is The Basis line and shows us the Average of PA and, as you can see, we are currently below Average. This shows a Negative Trend. See how PA is above the basis line in a Positive Trend Also note in the chart how the lines of candles are Smoother. Each New candle begins on the centre line of the previous and so it becomes a Lot easier to see if PA rises or drops from previous with out the Jagged Noise of traditional candles. - Taller candles show more Strength than previous; So now to the ADX Chart See those 2 Dashed Vertical lines and note how the ADX ( YELLOW ) changes direction at those points. To remind you, the Left one was where BTC PA Slowed down from a Steep Rise, A BULLISH TREND, and turned to Ranging. The Drop in the ADX at this point showed us that the previous trend was weakening. I remind you, it DOES NOT SHOW TREND DIRECTION even though, in this case, they follow each other. PA Ranged horizontal on average till we met the Next line, where the previous Trend Strength had reached Neutral ( Note, this is around 20 on the ADX scale ) At the next dashed lime. ADX began rising. Trend strength was increasing. Initially, we saw BTC PA rising to a New ATH and so, it was easy to assume that the Trend Was Bullish again. However, as we see now, it turns out it was a BEARISH trend. So how do we know when this is going to end ? The ORANGE line DI+ ( positive price action ) and the RED DI - ( Negative price action ) can help These are Price Direction index. When DI + rises, this indicates a positive price action and Visa Versa for DI - On its own, this is not easy But, for instance, notice how while we been in the descending channel, the DI+ dropped while the DI- has ranged along the 20 line on average. This indicates a controlled Drop in PA and NOT a Full on Bearish capitulation. There is strength there in PA and this can be seen by the Slow rise of the ADX On a shorter time scales, over the last 5 days we have seen PA rise in price. this is reflected more in the DI- dropping ( Negative price action loosing strength ) more than in the DI + remainf horizontal.( NOT gaining Strength ) This could indicate that we are not finished Dropping yet - and yet, at the same time, we see the ADX weakening. The Bears maybe getting Tired. If we now return to the Chart This fatigue we maybe seeing in the Bears could be reflected in the simple fact that we are now Near a long term Rising line of Support ( bold line) and that we are nearer the lower line of the descending channel ( also support) - We are also very near the 2.272 fib extension that has proved to be support previously. The upper bollinger band is around 90K, which happens to be near Top of current range. So, we may see a push higher soon but we need to understand that the Longer term still Looks like we will continue in the Range Bound for a Few more weeks. I hope this helps but be prepared for anything
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
BITCOIN (BTC/USD)BTC/USD – Technical Outlook Bias: Bearish BTC/USD has completed the ABCD pattern and is now printing lower highs and lower lows, confirming a shift in market structure to bearish. Price is currently retesting a previous support, now turned resistance. If this level holds, it could open the door for continued downside; with the 68K–50K zone as a potential BTD (buy-the-dip) area. TARGET 1 (78K): A key structural zone. A clean break and close below this level would confirm bearish momentum and increase the likelihood of price falling. TARGET 2 (66K): Likely to act as a magnet; a previous resistance turned support that launched price toward 100K. A return here would retest the foundation of the previous rally to 100k. TARGET 3 (50K): From a fractal and psychological standpoint, double tops often retrace to the origin of the bullish move. In this case, around the 50K zone. Invalidation: A reclaim of 85K–90K would shift bias back to bullish, signalling potential for upside momentum.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by DENCHMON
Bitcoin’s Monthly RSI Nearing Danger Zone – Time to Sell?The chart above illustrates Bitcoin’s price action alongside the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on a monthly timeframe, which helps identify overbought and oversold conditions. Historically, Bitcoin’s major bull cycle peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021 coincided with the monthly RSI reaching between 85-95, as highlighted by the blue circles. A downward trendline connects these peaks, suggesting that each cycle has seen slightly lower RSI highs, indicating a potential long-term momentum decline. Currently, the RSI is approaching this historical resistance zone, signaling that Bitcoin may be nearing its market peak. If this trend continues, it could mark the final phase of the bull run, making it a strategic period for profit-taking. Traders should closely monitor RSI behavior, as a rejection from this level could indicate the start of a correction. Historically, a monthly RSI of 85-95 has been a strong sell signal, marking the end of Bitcoin’s bull markets. If Bitcoin follows this pattern again, a distribution phase followed by a downturn could be expected.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by HexaTrades
Bitcoin’s Final Surge? One Month Before the Post-Halving Drop!Bitcoin Halving Cycles: What History Tells Us About 2025 The Bitcoin halving is a highly anticipated event that occurs approximately every four years, reducing the block reward by 50% ⛏️. This supply shock has historically been a major catalyst for price movements. By analyzing previous cycles, we can attempt to forecast what might happen in the upcoming halving cycle of 2025. Historical Performance of Bitcoin Halving Cycles First Halving (2012) 365 Days Before Halving: 📈 +385% 365 Days After Halving: 🚀 +8069% Peak-to-Trough Decline After Peak: 🔻 -76.98% Second Halving (2016) 365 Days Before Halving: 📈 +142% 365 Days After Halving: 🚀 +284% Peak-to-Trough Decline After Peak: 🔻 -82.88% Third Halving (2020) 365 Days Before Halving: 📈 +17% 365 Days After Halving: 🚀 +559% Peak-to-Trough Decline After Peak: 🔻 -75.64% Current Cycle and 2025 Halving Expectations - Last Halving Date: 📅 April 15, 2024 - 365 Days Before Halving: Bitcoin gained 📈 +130% from $28,827 (April 2023) to around $65,000. - Projected 365 Days After Halving (April 2025): If history rhymes, we could see a price increase of around 📊 +72%, with a potential closure at the current Peak of $110,000. - Post-Peak Decline Estimate: Previous post-halving peaks saw declines of 📉 75%–82%. With Bitcoin's all-time high around $110,000, a 🔻 75% drawdown would target a bottom of ~$30,000 before the next recovery cycle. Key Takeaways Bitcoin's price tends to rally leading up to the halving, but the largest gains historically occur in the year following the halving. 📊 Post-bull run drawdowns are severe with past declines ranging from 🔻 -75% to -82%. While the Pre and Post-Halving theory suggests that the decline starts around 365 days after the halving, the full bear market typically unfolds between ⏳ 486 to 510 days post-halving. This aligns with the ⛓️ 70,000-block mark post-halving, as Bitcoin halvings occur approximately every 210,000 blocks. This means that while the peak may occur within a year after the halving, the deep bearish phase historically becomes evident around 1.3 to 1.4 years after the halving, reinforcing the long-term cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s market trends 🔄. Final Thoughts Bitcoin halving events are pivotal moments in the crypto market cycle 🔥. The data suggests that 2025 could see significant gains, but we should also be prepared for the inevitable correction that follows 📉. What are your thoughts on the upcoming cycle? Share your insights in the comments! Disclaimer This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The historical performance of Bitcoin halving cycles does not guarantee future results, and past trends may not necessarily repeat. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and investing in Bitcoin or any other asset carries risks, including the potential loss of capital. Readers should conduct their own research, assess their risk tolerance, and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The information provided is based on publicly available data and historical observations, which may be subject to change. Sources: Nakamoto, S. (2008). Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System. Bitcoin block time and halving data: Blockchain.com Historical Bitcoin price data: CoinMarketCap Bitcoin halving cycles and trends: Messari Market performance metrics: Glassnode By reading this article, you acknowledge that you are solely responsible for your own financial decisions and that the author assumes no liability for any losses incurred from trading or investing. 🚀
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Theperfectionist
3
Bitcoin 50 SMA time snaps and Low to ATH since 2014 - UPDATEIn a similar vein to the chart posted earlier today about the patterns between the 50 and 100 SMA, this post is using the 50 SMA ( RED) and the time spent above and below PA. Alongside this, we have the day counts for PA LOW to PA ATH since 2014 After 2013 ATH and once the 50 SMA dropped below PA, it spent 399 days below PA After 2017 ATH and once the 50 SMA dropped below PA, it spent 329 days below PA After 2021 ATH and once the 50 SMA dropped below PA, it spent 420 days below PA - This is an impressive stat as it includes the Deep Bear that we experienced after the Luna, 3 Arrows & FTX crashes, includes the raising of interest rates and the utter presecution by Banks and SEX in the USa. The fact that the drop below PA was only extended by 35 days ( average) Max shows a strength in Bitcoin sentiment. It could NOT be broken In 2015, once the 50 SMA has risen above PA, it remained there for 938 days In 2019, once the 50 SMA has risen above PA, it remained there for 1001 days In 2023, once the 50 SMA has risen above PA, we have been above for 756 days of an expected average projection of 966 days This projects that PA will Drop Below the 50 SMA in about October 2015, After the ATH as previously. This points towards an ATH in Q4 - this has some confluence with the previous post though open to suggestion. Next is the simple PA LOW to ATH and Back to LOW day counts 2013 ATH to Cycle Low was 665 days then 847 days to Cycle ATH 2017 ATH to Cycle Low was 350 days then 1064 days to Cycle ATH 2021 ATH to Cycle Low was 378 days then, using the average of the two previous day Count from Low to ATH, gives us 952 days to Cycle ATH This puts an ATH in JUNE 2025 ! I do not think this is realistic in anyway however, Anything is possible currently. I do however think that June is about when PA could seriously begin to make Moves higher, with intent to reach a Cycle ATH. The reason being, the weekly MACD will have reached Neutral by then ( if not in mid May ) So while this chart offers some confluence to other ideas, it also offers another ATH date that is way earlier than any previous cycle ATH - While I feel this is unlikely to happen, we Must keep open minds.. the adoption of BTC by main stream now may well accelerate the PA cycle. We shall wait and find out. Be prepared for ALL occasions....including the arrival of an early Bear. - THAT will be in another post, at some point soon Stay safe
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
2
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 14, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the current week's trading session, Bitcoin has made multiple hits by retesting our completed Outer Coin Dip 78800 on Sunday and Monday. Consequently, the cryptocurrency has experienced a significant uptrend, reaching the inverse (Resistance) Mean Sup 84700 level. This upward oscillation indicates a potential for further price rally and suggests a likelihood of advancing toward the target designated as the Interim Coin Rally 88400. Such developments could facilitate an extension toward the supplementary target of Mean Res 94500 and beyond. If there is a decline from Interim Coin Rally 88400 or its current price level, the coin is expected to retest the completed Outer Coin Dip 78700, potentially reinstating the upward rally.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Falling wedge found on Daily TimeframeYou're absolutely right, the falling wedge pattern often suggests a potential breakout to the upside, but it's important to be cautious. That "bleed off" to around 70k could still be part of a larger consolidation before a big move. If we break down out of the wedge, it would definitely signal more bearish market sentiment, especially considering the broader macro risks you're highlighting like geopolitical instability, health crises, and climate concerns. It's a bit of a nerve-wracking but exciting situation, especially with the unpredictable nature of markets these days. How are you thinking of positioning yourself in this scenario? Holding out for the breakout, or preparing for the downside risk as well?
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by frmnCapital
BITCOIN 50 & 100 SMA Patterns since 2014 -UPDATE - ATH in Q4 ?This is a long post but please read it all, there are some Major things to take note of. The Main item in this post is the day counts between 50 SMA ( RED ) and 100 SMA ( BLUE ) and the days between Cross overs of these. The upper day counts on the chart, count from ATH to when 50 crosses below the 100. Then from that point to when the 50 Crosses back Above the 100 And then, in Grey, the number of days from Cross over to ATH From 2014 ATH to 50 dropping Below = 504 days When the 50 returned Above the 100 = 406 days And from that point to the 2017 ATH = 560 days From 2017 ATH to 50 dropping Below = 448 days When the 50 returned Above the 100 = 284 days And from that point to the 2021 ATH = 686 days ( I am using the Nov 2921 ATH as it was the higher price ) From 2021 ATH to 50 dropping Below = 308 days When the 50 returned Above the 100 = 441 days And from that point to the 2025 ATH = The average of the 2 previous is 623 days and takes us to a possible ATH in August, though I feel this is too soon. If we Look at the day count from ATH to 50 dropping below 100 From 2014 ATH to 50 dropping Below = 504 days From 2017 ATH to 50 dropping Below = 448 days From 2021 ATH to 50 dropping Below = 308 days Could this point towards around 200 days after ATH in 2025? ( This reduction in day count is most likely due ti rapid Profit taking. ) What is interesting is how, on Both the 2014 - 2017 and 2017 - 2021 ATH it was approx 1005 days between the 50 rising above the 100 to when ot fell back below after an ATH. This is Despite a variation in the days count between SMA cross overs. Using this day count and projecting forward, maybe we can expect the 50 to drop back below the 100 in August 2026, next year Using the day count from ATH to when 50 Drops below, that was mentioned above, that is around 200 days after ATH and using that August date just mentioned, We are projecting a Cycle ATH in Feb 2026 ! This is NOT a realistic date if we are to remain in the patterns of ATH in late Q4, that we have had every previous cycle. As I pointed out in a post yesterday, the traditional patterns of Bitcoin HAVE to change this year. And to many extents, they already have begun. Take a Look at the angle of ascent of the 50 and 100 SMA's since 2014. Each cycle has seen a reduction of Steepness of Rise.... A slowing down on trajectory and this is most likely caused by the increase of price of a Bitcoin. The more expensive it gets, the heavier it is to move PA higher. So far this cycle, PA has landed on the 50 SMA twice and we are SO Close to doing that again. This has NEVER happened before. In 2021, we did it once and bounced to the Nov 2021 ATH, so far this cycle, we have done that twice. This ARE CHANGING and for this to continue, we do need to see PA Bounce again off the 50, when the Bulls are ready. The ATH in Q4 is open to question as a result. It may happen anytime from Late Q3 to Late Q1 2026 And we are only going to find out when it happens. But be aware f things changing. Because they are and so using History may become unusable....a bit like Price discoveryIt will become Trend discovery Enjoy
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin, S&P, Gold: Market Decline & DivergenceThe intricate dance of financial assets often reveals hidden correlations and predictive patterns. Recently, the synchronized decline of Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has raised concerns, while gold's historic rally has left Bitcoin trailing. However, a deeper dive into the data suggests a potential turnaround, hinting at a shift in market dynamics. For much of the past few years, Bitcoin has exhibited a strong correlation with the S&P 500, behaving as a risk-on asset.1 When the stock market surged, Bitcoin often followed suit, and conversely, market downturns typically coincided with Bitcoin's price depreciation. This correlation stems from shared macroeconomic drivers, such as interest rate expectations, inflation concerns, and overall investor sentiment. The recent parallel decline reflects anxieties surrounding persistent inflation, potential interest rate hikes, and geopolitical uncertainties. However, this synchronized movement doesn't tell the whole story. While Bitcoin and the S&P 500 have been grappling with downward pressure, gold has embarked on a remarkable rally, reaching unprecedented heights. This surge is fueled by several factors, including substantial inflows into gold ETFs, escalating geopolitical tensions, and heightened market volatility. Gold's traditional role as a safe-haven asset has been reaffirmed, as investors seek refuge from the turbulence in equity and cryptocurrency markets. The divergence between Bitcoin and gold is particularly striking. The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, a metric that reflects the relative value of Bitcoin compared to gold, has broken a 12-year support level. This breach signals a significant shift in investor preference, with gold emerging as the dominant asset. The recent climb of gold to a hypothetical $3,000 mark (or equivalent in other currencies) further underscores this trend, demonstrating its resilience in the face of economic uncertainty. The observed pattern of Bitcoin breaking its multiyear uptrend against gold bears a striking resemblance to the market behavior witnessed between March 2021 and March 2022. During that period, Bitcoin experienced a similar decline relative to gold, ultimately leading to a substantial drop in its dollar value. This fractal pattern suggests that Bitcoin may be poised for further depreciation, potentially falling below the $65,000 mark. However, it's crucial to acknowledge that historical patterns are not infallible predictors of future performance. Market dynamics are constantly evolving, and unforeseen events can significantly alter the trajectory of asset prices. While the current data points towards a potential decline for Bitcoin, there are countervailing factors that could trigger a reversal. One such factor is the increasing institutional adoption of Bitcoin. As more institutional investors allocate a portion of their portfolios to cryptocurrencies, the market may become less susceptible to short-term fluctuations driven by retail sentiment. Moreover, the long-term potential of Bitcoin as a decentralized store of value remains a compelling narrative for many investors. Additionally, the regulatory landscape surrounding cryptocurrencies is gradually becoming clearer. As governments and regulatory bodies establish frameworks for the operation of digital asset markets, investor confidence may improve, leading to renewed interest in Bitcoin. The upcoming Bitcoin halving is also anticipated to reduce the supply of new Bitcoin entering the market, which could potentially drive up its price. While the current correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 may persist in the short term, the underlying fundamentals of Bitcoin suggest a potential decoupling in the long run. As the cryptocurrency market matures and gains wider acceptance, its correlation with traditional asset classes may weaken. The recent divergence between Bitcoin and gold highlights the importance of diversifying investment portfolios. While gold has proven its resilience in times of uncertainty, Bitcoin offers the potential for substantial returns in the long term. Investors should carefully consider their risk tolerance and investment objectives when allocating capital to these assets. The breakdown of the Bitcoin to gold ratio is a concerning indicator, however, the cryptocurrency world moves quickly. The market is driven by new innovation, and adoption. The market has been known to have large pullbacks, followed by even larger rallies. The current market may be pricing in a large amount of fear, and a simple change in the news cycle could cause a large change in the price of bitcoin. In conclusion, the current market dynamics present a complex picture. The synchronized decline of Bitcoin and the S&P 500, coupled with gold's historic rally, suggests a potential downturn for Bitcoin. However, the long-term potential of Bitcoin, coupled with increasing institutional adoption and a maturing regulatory landscape, could trigger a reversal. Investors should remain vigilant, monitor market trends, and make informed decisions based on a comprehensive understanding of the underlying fundamentals. The data suggests a potential turn around, but only time will tell if the market will comply.
by bryandowningqln
$84K BTC Battle, ETF Resilience, and Macroeconomic ShadowsBitcoin's journey remains a captivating saga of volatility, resilience, and the interplay of technical indicators and macroeconomic forces. Recently, the cryptocurrency surged past $84,000, reigniting bullish sentiment, but faces a critical test at a key resistance level.1 This surge, fueled by a broader rebound in risk assets, pushed BTC above its 200-day moving average, a pivotal benchmark for assessing long-term trends. However, this bullish momentum is juxtaposed with significant selling pressure, ETF outflows, and lingering concerns about regulatory and macroeconomic landscapes. The 200-Day Moving Average: A Battleground for Bulls The 200-day moving average is a widely recognized technical indicator that provides insight into the long-term trend of an asset. For Bitcoin, consistently closing above this level signifies a potential shift from bearish to bullish momentum. The recent breach is a positive sign for bulls, indicating renewed confidence and potentially attracting further investment. However, a sustained close above this level is crucial to solidify the bullish outlook. The importance of this level is highlighted by the narrative that a weekly close above this average would confirm a market bottom. This emphasizes the significance of longer timeframes in validating trends in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market. $86K or $65+K: A Price at a Crossroads Bitcoin's price currently finds itself at a critical juncture. The immediate challenge is breaching the $86,000 resistance level. A successful breakout could pave the way for further gains, potentially pushing Bitcoin towards new all-time highs. Conversely, failure to overcome this resistance could lead to a pullback towards the $65,000 support level. This range represents a crucial battleground for bulls and bears, with the outcome likely to determine the short-term trajectory of Bitcoin's price. MVRV Ratio: A Potential Reversal Indicator The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is another key metric that investors closely monitor. It compares Bitcoin's market capitalization to its realized capitalization, providing insights into potential overbought or oversold conditions. A high MVRV ratio suggests that Bitcoin is overvalued and prone to a correction, while a low ratio indicates undervaluation and potential for a rebound. The MVRV ratio nearing a key level suggests that a major reversal could be imminent, adding another layer of complexity to Bitcoin's current price action. ETF Resilience Amidst Volatility Despite a 25% price drop, Bitcoin ETF investors have maintained a relatively strong stance. This resilience is reflected in the collective $115 billion in assets under management by US Bitcoin ETFs. This demonstrates the growing institutional adoption of Bitcoin and the increasing acceptance of cryptocurrencies as a legitimate asset class. However, since mid-February, Bitcoin ETFs have witnessed total outflows of nearly $5 billion. This outflow points to a potential shift in investor sentiment, possibly driven by concerns about market volatility or macroeconomic uncertainties. The strength of the ETF market is a double edged sword. While significant holdings demonstrate institutional buy in, large outflows can increase sell pressure on the underlying asset. Selling Pressure and Macroeconomic Shadows Bitcoin's recent decline is attributed to intensified selling pressure, reflecting a broader trend of risk aversion in the market. This selling pressure is exacerbated by concerns about the potential impact of digital currencies on traditional banking systems. Banks are increasingly weighing the implications of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, leading to regulatory scrutiny and potential policy changes. Furthermore, macroeconomic factors continue to weigh on investor sentiment. Concerns about inflation, interest rate hikes, and geopolitical tensions are contributing to market volatility and impacting the demand for risk assets, including Bitcoin. Presidential Policy and Market Sentiment A presidential policy aimed at creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve initially sparked optimism among investors. However, this initial enthusiasm waned, highlighting the complex interplay between policy announcements and market reactions. While such policies can signal government acceptance of cryptocurrencies, they may not always translate into immediate price appreciation. The market's reaction suggests that investors are more focused on broader macroeconomic trends and regulatory clarity. The lack of sustained positive impact from the policy announcement underscores the importance of addressing fundamental concerns about Bitcoin's long-term viability and regulatory framework. Navigating the Volatility Bitcoin's current situation highlights the inherent volatility and unpredictable nature of the cryptocurrency market. Investors must remain vigilant and adapt to rapidly changing market conditions. The interplay of technical indicators, ETF flows, and macroeconomic factors creates a complex landscape that requires careful analysis and strategic decision-making. In conclusion, Bitcoin's battle at $84K, coupled with the resilience of ETF investors and the shadow of macroeconomic uncertainties, paints a picture of a market at a critical juncture. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can sustain its bullish momentum or succumb to renewed selling pressure. Understanding the interplay of these factors is essential for navigating the volatile world of cryptocurrency investing.
by bryandowningqln
Bitcoin is Headed to $36K And It’s Happening NOW!This might not be the most popular opinion, especially among those who still believe the current Bitcoin bull cycle hasn’t ended. However, I encourage you to take a few minutes, approach this with an open mind, and let me know whether you agree or disagree. Understanding the Previous Cycle (2020–2021) The last Bitcoin bull cycle began in March 2020, when BTC bottomed at approximately $3,810. It then surged to an all-time high (ATH) of $69,870 in November 2021, marking the cycle top. By applying a Fibonacci retracement to this entire range, we can see that the golden pocket (0.618 - 0.786 Fib)—often a key support zone during bear markets—fell between $17,700 and $28,690. Looking at the chart, BTC beautifully retraced into this zone, even dipping slightly below it to form a cycle bottom at $15,500 in November 2022. The key sign that the bear market had ended and a new bull market had begun was when Bitcoin broke above the 0.786 Fibonacci level of the previous cycle and established a higher high on the weekly chart. This marked a clear shift from a bearish to a bullish market structure. The Current Cycle (2022–2025) From the November 2022 bottom, Bitcoin rallied, setting a new ATH at $73,600—just slightly above the previous peak. After some consolidation, it found strong support at the 0.236 Fib level of the previous bull cycle, signaling that the uptrend was still intact. The real breakout came when BTC surpassed the psychological $100,000 level and consolidated around the -0.5 Fib extension of the previous cycle. The cycle top appears to have been put in after Donald Trump took office in January 2025, marking an approximately 26-month bull run—longer than previous cycles. However, a major bear market confirmation signal has now emerged: BTC has decisively broken below the 0.236 Fib retracement of this cycle, which historically signals the end of a bull market and the beginning of a new bear phase. Where is the Next Bottom? By analyzing the Fibonacci levels of both the previous and current bull cycles, we can identify key potential support zones where Bitcoin may bottom out: 1. $51,370 - $53,700 • This range aligns with: • 0.236 Fib of the previous bull cycle • 0.618 Fib of the most recent bull cycle • This zone has confluence, making it a high-probability support level. 2. $35,600 - $36,500 • This range aligns with: • 0.5 Fib of the previous bull cycle • 0.786 Fib of the most recent bull cycle • If BTC breaks below the first support zone, this is the next key level to watch. Historically, Bitcoin bear markets last around one year, so we can expect this downward trend to play out over a similar timeframe. How to Position Yourself? For long-term investors, these support zones offer prime buying opportunities to accumulate Bitcoin at discounted prices before the next bull run begins. While the market won’t move in a straight line down—expect bounces and fake-outs—the general expectation is that BTC will find its next higher low within one of these zones. Looking Ahead: Next Bull Cycle Target If we use the same -0.5 Fib extension strategy that predicted the previous cycle’s top, we can estimate the next bull market peak. Based on the current cycle’s Fib range, the projected ATH for the next bull run would be around $157,000. Final Thoughts While nobody can predict the future with certainty, historical price action, Fibonacci levels, and market structure provide strong clues about where BTC is headed next. As always, flexibility is key—if market conditions change, so should our expectations. But if history repeats itself, these levels offer a solid framework for identifying the best entry points and positioning for the next major bull run. What do you think? Do you agree with this analysis, or do you see it differently? Let me know in the comments!
Short
by bigcheese421
4
Bitcoin Weekly LINEAR chart shows possible re run of 2021 2X ATHI was just looking at this Linear chart and spotted a couple of things. So many people Use LOGARITHMIC charts. In summery, A logarithmic chart is a graphical representation that uses a logarithmic scale, which differs from the conventional linear scale. In a logarithmic scale, the distance between values is not constant but increases by a factor, making it useful for datasets with a wide range of values. This approach helps in presenting numerical information more efficiently and allows for a better visualization of rates of change or percentages rather than absolute values. A LINEAR chart however, shows you the REAL rate of change. And on This Linear chart, I have noticed that PA is creating a very Similar Top to the MARCH ATH of 2021 I do not think we will follow it perfectly, as that drop in 2021 was over 50% and that would take us down to 52K, which I think is not a real possibility. But, being open to ALL possibilities, that trend line that was used by PA to bounce to the Nov ATH currently sits around 65K But the longer we wait, it heads higher, towards the 1 Fib ext around the Old 2021 ATH near 70K ( 69300) Also note, how once PA had Dropped in March 2021, it levelled out and slide sideways for around 7 weeks. So if we come over to Today, we have just dropped around 30% and seem to have found a Floor around 76K We HAD to drop out of that Upper range box - It would have been December before we found support on the rising Trend line that has been the trigger for moves higher since 2023 And so, we have dropped to a Lower Range Box ( hopefully ) and this box hits the Rising trend line around June. This has confluence with a number of other charts And if we do range sideways, around this level, it is similar to that Range after the drop in 2021. In 2021, after that range, PA rose by around 122% I am not to sure we would see that but................ So now we wait to see if we stay in this range or not, with a top around 90K We could See wicks out of this Range, down to the 70K mark maybe, with swift recovery..... We may also see further Drop.... there is abcolutly NO guarentee that we will even head higher again..... We have to wait and see and have plans and stick to them..for both BULl and BEAR
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin at a Crucial Level: Another Pump Ahead?The price of Bitcoin is at a crucial region, with buyers continuing to defend the 200-day moving average on the daily chart and holding off the bearish pivot on the weekly chart. Yesterday's closing candle (March 11, 2025) is a PFR (Closing Price Reversal), indicating buyers defense in an important area. The fact that the price has consolidated since its last major bullish leg (Trump trade) strengthens the possibility of another upward move. Considering all the actions Trump is taking regarding cryptocurrencies, I see another pump ahead.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Luiz_soares