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Bitcoin BTC Has Started CorrectionHello, Skyrexians! Hope we understood what is going to happen with the Bitcoin dominance, if briefly we are waiting for correction and this dominance dump will likely happen on BINANCE:BTCUSDT dump. Let's take a look at the impulse which has been started at $75k, it looks like this impulse has been finished already with the 5 Elliott waves cycle. At the very top we can see the bearish divergent bar and bearish divergence with the Awesome Oscillator. Moreover oscillator started to print red columns, it means that momentum is gone and now it's time to go down. Best regards, Ivan Skyrexio ___________________________________________________________ Please, boost this article and subscribe our page if you like analysis!
Short
by Skyrexio
13
$100k Bitcoin IMMINENT? Price Ignites After Major Surge!The cryptocurrency market is once again crackling with energy, and at the heart of the storm stands Bitcoin (BTC). The world's largest and original cryptocurrency is staging a remarkable comeback, shattering recent resistance levels and reigniting fervent speculation about its potential to not only revisit but decisively conquer the psychologically potent $100,000 milestone. Following a period of consolidation and downward pressure, a powerful surge has propelled Bitcoin to its highest price point in over ten weeks, signaling a potential paradigm shift in market sentiment and trading behavior. The Breakout: Shaking Off Recent Slumber The recent price action has been decisive. Bitcoin climbed as much as 3.1% to achieve a weekly high of $97,483. This marks the most robust price level observed since February 21st, representing a significant break from the sideways and sometimes downward trajectory that characterized parts of the preceding weeks. The memory of Bitcoin crossing the $100,000 threshold on February 7th is still fresh, adding weight to the current push towards that level. This upward momentum provides a stark contrast to the market conditions seen earlier. There is downward pressure attributed to geopolitical factors and economic policies, such as potential tariff implementations, which had previously triggered sell-offs impacting both traditional stock markets and the digital asset space. Furthermore, the market had to digest a significant correction following Bitcoin's earlier peak. While the specifics of past peaks can be debated based on different exchange data, the narrative of a significant pullback followed by the current strong recovery is clear. Bitcoin weathered a period where it seemed momentum might stall, but the bulls have evidently returned with renewed vigor. Shifting Market Dynamics: From Macro-Driven to Momentum-Fueled Perhaps one of the most crucial insights from the current rally is the apparent shift in what's driving price action. For much of the past year or two, Bitcoin's price movements often seemed heavily correlated with macroeconomic factors – inflation data releases, central bank interest rate decisions, geopolitical tensions, and regulatory pronouncements. While these factors undoubtedly still play a role, the current surge suggests a transition towards a market more heavily influenced by internal dynamics: spot market demand and trading momentum. There are traders who are increasingly reacting to price action itself, buying into strength and potentially creating a self-reinforcing cycle. The focus is less on predicting the next Federal Reserve move and more on the immediate supply and demand dynamics visible on exchanges. Bitcoin isn't entirely decoupled from macro trends, but its internal market structure, particularly the influence of new financial instruments like ETFs and strong spot buying, is asserting greater influence on short-to-medium term price discovery. The ETF Factor: Opening the Floodgates for Capital The launch and subsequent success of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States have been a game-changer, and their impact is arguably a primary catalyst for the current bullishness. These regulated investment vehicles provide traditional investors and institutions with a familiar and accessible way to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly holding the underlying asset. The result has been a torrent of new capital flowing into the market. There has been a staggering inflow of over $3.2 billion entering Bitcoin and Ethereum tracking ETFs in the preceding week alone. BlackRock's Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), a major player in the space, recorded nearly $1.5 billion in inflows during that period, marking its highest weekly intake for the year according to Bloomberg data. These inflows are not just numbers on a spreadsheet; they translate directly into buying pressure in the spot market. ETF issuers must purchase actual Bitcoin to back the shares they issue to investors. This sustained, large-scale buying provides a powerful tailwind for the price, absorbing sell orders and driving the market upwards. The success of these ETFs also lends legitimacy to Bitcoin as an asset class, potentially encouraging further adoption and investment from previously hesitant institutional players. The "demand" aspect of the current rally is heavily underpinned by this ongoing ETF phenomenon. Options Market Signals: Betting Big on $100,000 Further evidence of the bullish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin, particularly the $100,000 target, comes from the derivatives market, specifically options trading. Options contracts give traders the right, but not the obligation, to buy (call option) or sell (put option) an asset at a specific price (strike price) before a certain expiration date. According to data from Coinglass and the major crypto options exchange Deribit, demand for upside options has surged. Notably, call options with a $100,000 strike price exhibit the most significant open interest across various expiration dates. Open interest represents the total number of outstanding contracts that have not yet been settled. High open interest in $100k call options indicates that a large number of traders are positioning themselves to profit from Bitcoin reaching or exceeding this level. While options data reflects expectations rather than guarantees, such concentrated betting on a specific upside target underscores the powerful psychological pull of the $100k mark and the conviction held by a significant segment of the market. Warming Up: Reading the Technical and On-Chain Pre-Rally Signals Beyond the ETF flows and options market sentiment, analysts are pointing to various technical and on-chain indicators suggesting Bitcoin is indeed "warming up" for a potentially larger move, exhibiting signals seen before previous major breakouts. This aligns with the theme of "Bitcoin Flashing Pre-Rally Signals Seen Before Major 2024 Breakouts." • Technical Analysis: o Breaking Resistance: The surge above the 10-week high ($97,483) was a critical technical breakout, overcoming a level that had previously capped price advances. Holding above this level turns former resistance into potential support. o Moving Averages: Traders watch moving averages closely. A "Golden Cross" (where a shorter-term moving average, like the 50-day, crosses above a longer-term one, like the 200-day) is often considered a strong long-term bullish signal. While specific configurations vary, bullish alignment of key moving averages often precedes sustained rallies. o Momentum Indicators: Indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) can signal building momentum. An RSI breaking above key levels without yet reaching extremely overbought territory, or a bullish MACD crossover, can suggest further upside potential. o Volume Confirmation: Crucially, significant price breakouts should ideally be accompanied by strong trading volume, indicating conviction behind the move. Analysts look for volume confirmation to validate the strength of the rally. • On-Chain Analysis: On-chain data provides insights into the behavior of Bitcoin holders and network activity. o Exchange Outflows: Sustained periods where more Bitcoin is withdrawn from exchanges than deposited often suggest investors are moving coins to private wallets for long-term holding ("HODLing"), reducing the immediately available supply for sale. o Accumulation Trends: Metrics tracking the behavior of large holders ("whales") and long-term holders can reveal accumulation patterns. Increased buying from these cohorts is typically seen as bullish. o Supply Dynamics: Indicators looking at the supply held by short-term versus long-term holders, or metrics like the Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR), can gauge whether significant profit-taking is occurring that could stall a rally. A low LTH-SOPR might suggest long-term holders are not yet selling aggressively. o Funding Rates: In the perpetual futures market, positive funding rates generally indicate that traders holding long positions are paying those holding short positions, suggesting a bullish bias in the derivatives space. When multiple technical and on-chain indicators align, as some analysts suggest is happening now, it builds a stronger case that the market is preparing for a significant move, lending credence to the "pre-rally signals" narrative. Mapping the Path to $100k and Beyond: Three Potential Scenarios While the current momentum is palpable, the path forward is never certain. Analysts are mapping various possibilities, acknowledging both the bullish potential and the inherent risks. Here are three broad scenarios that could unfold: 1. The Momentum Continuation Scenario: Fueled by continued strong ETF inflows, positive market sentiment amplified by the $100k narrative, and potentially favorable (or at least neutral) macroeconomic developments, Bitcoin continues its ascent relatively unimpeded. It decisively breaks the $100,000 barrier, potentially triggering a wave of Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) from retail investors and further institutional interest. In this scenario, the market quickly looks towards higher targets, exploring price discovery in uncharted territory above $100k (or above its previous ATH depending on the data source used). Key challenges would be maintaining buying pressure and overcoming psychological resistance levels beyond $100k. 2. The Consolidation and Recharge Scenario: Bitcoin's rally meets significant resistance near or just below the $100,000 level. Profit-taking increases, and early ETF buyers might look to secure gains. Instead of a sharp rejection, the price enters a period of consolidation – trading sideways within a defined range or experiencing a moderate pullback. This phase allows the market to digest recent gains, build a stronger base of support (potentially around the recent breakout level near GETTEX:97K or slightly lower), and allows moving averages to catch up. If support holds and buying demand re-emerges (perhaps triggered by fresh ETF inflows or positive news), this consolidation could form the launchpad for the next sustained leg up towards and beyond $100k. This scenario tests the resilience of the buyers. 3. The Macro Headwind or Correction Scenario: Despite the strong internal dynamics, external factors reassert control. An unexpected negative catalyst emerges – perhaps significantly worse-than-expected inflation data forcing a hawkish central bank response, a major geopolitical escalation, unforeseen regulatory action against crypto, or a sharp downturn in traditional markets triggering widespread risk-off sentiment. Alternatively, the rally could simply run out of steam, hitting a "sell wall" at $100k that overwhelms buying pressure, leading to a sharper correction back towards lower support levels ($90k, $85k, or even lower). This scenario underscores the ever-present volatility and risk in the crypto market, reminding investors that parabolic runs can face abrupt reversals. The Crucial Question: Can BTC Buying Demand Meet the Challenge? Ultimately, whether Bitcoin successfully retests and surpasses $100,000 hinges on the sustainability of the current buying demand. Several factors support continued demand: • Ongoing ETF Flows: As long as institutions and retail investors continue allocating capital to spot Bitcoin ETFs, this provides a consistent source of buying pressure. • Growing Adoption Narrative: Each price surge and new institutional product launch reinforces the narrative of Bitcoin's growing acceptance and potential role as a store of value or portfolio diversifier. • Halving Effect (Long-Term): While the Bitcoin Halving (reduction in new supply issuance) is a past event, its long-term supply-constricting effects are believed by many to contribute to price appreciation over time. • Potential Retail FOMO: A decisive break above $100k could capture mainstream media attention and trigger a wave of buying from retail investors fearing they might miss out on further gains. However, potential headwinds exist: • Profit-Taking: Investors who bought at lower levels, including early ETF participants, may look to lock in substantial profits as the price approaches major milestones. • Regulatory Uncertainty: While ETFs marked progress, the broader regulatory landscape for crypto remains complex and subject to change globally. • Macroeconomic Risks: Inflation, interest rates, and potential recessionary fears haven't disappeared and could resurface to dampen risk appetite. • Market Saturation/Exhaustion: Rallies can lose momentum if buying power becomes exhausted without fresh catalysts. The interplay between these forces will determine if the current buying wave has the strength and endurance to overcome sell pressure and propel Bitcoin into six-figure territory sustainably. Conclusion: A Critical Juncture for Bitcoin Bitcoin stands at a fascinating and potentially pivotal juncture. The recent surge, breaking a 10-week high and pushing towards the $100,000 horizon, is fueled by a powerful combination of factors unlike those seen in previous cycles. The institutional validation and massive capital inflows brought by spot Bitcoin ETFs represent a fundamental shift, seemingly driving a transition towards momentum and spot-demand-based trading. Bullish signals from the options market and various technical/on-chain indicators add fuel to the fire, painting a picture of a market "warming up" for potentially significant further gains. Yet, the path to $100,000 and beyond is fraught with challenges. Market history teaches that parabolic advances often face corrections, and the ever-present risks of macroeconomic shifts and regulatory developments cannot be ignored. The sustainability of the current buying frenzy, particularly the crucial ETF inflows, will be rigorously tested as Bitcoin confronts the immense psychological and technical resistance clustered around the six-figure mark. Whether Bitcoin achieves a swift breakout, undergoes a period of consolidation, or faces a pullback remains to be seen. However, the current price action and underlying market dynamics have undeniably reignited excitement and placed the $100,000 target firmly back in the spotlight, marking a critical chapter in Bitcoin's ongoing evolution within the global financial ecosystem. Investors and observers alike will be watching intently to see if the current surge has the power to meet the demand challenge and etch a new all-time high into the history books. Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is for informational and educational purposes only. It is based on the analysis of the provided source material and general market knowledge. It does not constitute financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves significant risk, including the potential loss of principal. Readers should conduct their own thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bryandowningqln
2
Bitcoin 1-Hour Chart: Quick Market BreakdownBTC is trading within a well-defined ascending channel, with the price currently at $97,400, after breakout and retest of weekly high resistance around $95,800. The channel’s upper boundary projects a potential target of $104,000 if BTC continues to move upward over the week! Key resistance levels to watch are $98,000 and $100,000, while support lies at $96,200 and the channel’s lower boundary at $95,000. A breakout above $100,000 could ignite a rally toward $104,000, but if BTC fails to hold support at $96,000, we might see a dip back to $94,400-93,000. Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: $100,000, $98,000 Support: $96,000, $94,000 Breakout Target: $104,000+ Breakdown Risk: $93,000 Will BTC soar to new heights, or are we in for a pullback? Let’s hear your thoughts below!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ArShevelev
Brief BITCOIN Weekly synopsis - BULLISH sign everywhere BLUE DASHED LINE = Current ATH Bitcoin did Drop below the lower trendline of the ascending channel it has been in since Jan 2023 but it made a sustained recovery since that moment and continues to climb as sentiment returns. One of the main resons for this, as I have repeatably mentioned, is the Weekly MACD. This bounced a little Earlier than expected, possibly due to falling out of the channel and the Bulls stepping in to pull it back. But as you can see, We have yet to cross over the Signal line and so, Yes, the possibility of this being a bull Trap does exist but I am not inclined to believe this. We have had 4 weeks of recovering Histogram, showing Strength behind the move. The RSI is also Bullish having just crossed above its own MA ( Moving Average ) This turned Bullish while still around 44, so NOT oversold by any means but still with plenty of Room to climb higher. Again, Signs of a sustained Rise are in play There are some Stiff lines of resistance above and we will start encountering them from 98K usd ( very soon ) and will remain till around 112K usd These are IMMINENT For me, we may not make it first time out but one VERY Bullish thing is that we did bounce of the 50 SMA once again 50 SMA RED - 100 Blur - 200 Yellow On the chart shown here, that rising trendline is around 112K The Green area to the right is a projected ATH zon. PA should rise above this to reach cycle ATH Should PA get rejected off the overhead resistance and fall back lower, the 60 SMA sits around 85K I would be amazed if that happens BUT anything is possible and we wait to see how Strong MAY is going to be. Over all, the next 7 Months WILL be memorable.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Roadmap — April to June 2025Hey traders! 👋 Bitcoin’s currently hanging around $94,100, and it just broke out of a multi-month diagonal resistance with strong volume and a solid daily close above all the SMAs and EMAs—bullish reversal confirmed! 🔥 Here’s what I think might play out between now and June: Phase 1: Rally Toward Higher High (Now → May 1st) Target: ~$99,600 (key horizontal + trendline resistance) BTC is making a strong parabolic move with increasing volume and RSI confirming strength. Break above $96 K → quick push toward psychological resistance near $100 K. Expect a local top (HH) to form around late April to May 1st. Phase 2: Pullback & Higher Low (May → June 1st) Target Zone: ~$83 K–$86 K (confluence of multiple support zones + volume shelf) A healthy correction is expected after tagging the upper resistance. Formation of a higher low (HL) will validate a long-term uptrend. Time-based support appears aligned with early June, matching your HL arrow. Phase 3: Trend Continuation (Post June 1st) If BTC forms a higher low and maintains structure, the next move targets: $105 K–$109 K (Fibonacci extension + ATH zone) Break above $99.6 K would flip this into macro bull territory Key Levels to Watch: Resistance $99,600 Horizontal + trendline rejection HL Zone $83 K–$86 K Fib & breakout base, HL formation Support $79.4 K 0.5 Fib — invalidation if lost Summary: BTC is in the midst of a potential higher high formation, targeting ~$99.6K by early May. A correction is then likely, forming a higher low in the ~$83 K–$86 K range into early June, setting the stage for a macro breakout run.
Long
by ir0nhand
4
Bitcoin: Weekly Bullish Continuation🟠 The weekly divergence between the March 2024 and January 2025 peaks has driven the recent 3-month decline. 🔴 BTC is expected to make a weekly move higher, creating another divergence in the way. 🔵 BTC held above the 2024 peak range 73K without overlap, while the Stock RSI has completed a full reset, reinforcing the bullish momentum. 🟢 Outlook: Over the next 6 months, Bitcoin CRYPTO:BTCUSD is expected to rally into new ATH, with a potential target around 127K by October 2025.
BITMEX:XBTLong
by AlienOvichO
BITCOIN Monthly Candle close patterns since 2011 - APRIL CLOSE Again, we got the expected Monthly Close, This time GREEN April is traditionally a Strong Green Month, now with 9 Green Closes to 5 RED - Nearly twice as many Green to Red. MAY is a different story, Nearly 50 / 50 previous closes with GREEN having an advantage of 1. BUT, With April closing Green after the previous months closes, things do look positive. On only 2 occasions have we had a GREEN JAN, RED FEB, RED MARCH, GREEN APRIL And Both of them were on the way to ATH. ( Arrows ) On both those occasions we had a GREEN MAY, though the gains weer minimal and one was followed by a Green June and the other by a Red June. We have had 4 occasions with a MARCH RED, APRIL GREEN, MAY GREEN Of the previous 9 GREEN April Closes, 5 were followed by a Green June And of those 5, 2 were followed by consecutive Green candles closes for the following Months. Though in 2020 sequence ( 2nd Arrow) after a GREEN May close, you can see the candles were not big and we had Red Green Green Red for 4 months then went Green consecutively. Of the previous 7 Green MAY candles, 4 were Bigger than the previous month candle. I am more inclined to look at the 2020 sequence in this for now and yet, at the same time, as posted in another chart, I am also still looking at the lead up to the 2017 ATH and for this to continue, we need a Bigger GREEN MAY close this month. There is a very strong line of resistance just over head. Currently, at time of writing, The opening MAY candle is GREEN but only just This month is CRUCIAL
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
BITCOIN - A real bullish sign!3D chart shows a Bullush exaggerated Divergence on RSI indicator. Bullish Exaggerated Divergence happen when: 1- Price: Forms a double bottom (two equal lows). 2- RSI: The second low is higher than the first. - Implication: Momentum is picking up despite flat price, hinting at a possible upward reversal. It's called exaggerated because price looks stable (same lows), but RSI reveals a hidden shift in momentum. There’s also a breakout from a falling wedge pattern and a perfect break above the 50 EMA with a massive green candle. We are now at the beginning of Bitcoin’s true bullish rally. Best regards Ceciliones🎯
Long
by ceciliones
8
Bitcoin struggles to clear key $95,000 levelAt the moment, a strong neutral sentiment has taken hold in Bitcoin’s price action, with an average fluctuation of just over 1% in the last four trading sessions. Indecision persists as BTC struggles to break through the $95,000 barrier, especially as the U.S. dollar has begun to regain strength—limiting the continuation of steady bullish momentum. Additionally, the CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains in the neutral zone, suggesting that the market is showing uncertainty regarding confidence in cryptocurrencies. Uptrend in focus: Since April 10 of this year, a new short-term bullish trend has been forming in Bitcoin’s movements. Although recent selling corrections have not been strong enough to break the upward structure, it is important to note that a prolonged period of neutrality could put the current bullish formation at risk in upcoming sessions. RSI: The RSI line continues to oscillate near the overbought zone marked by the 70 level. As it approaches this threshold, it could signal a potential imbalance in buying pressure and may lead to short-term bearish corrections. ADX: The ADX line remains slightly above the 20 level, indicating that the average volatility of the last 14 periods is still low. This suggests that recent price movements lack strong directional momentum. Key Levels: $95,000: A short-term resistance level aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. A breakout above this zone could reinforce a stronger bullish bias and open the door for a more significant buying trend. $100,000: A distant resistance level at a major psychological threshold. If price action pushes toward this level, it could signal the beginning of a long-term trend and a potential move toward all-time highs. $90,000: A key support level, corresponding to the most important neutral zone tested in recent weeks. A break below this level could invalidate the current bullish formation and shift momentum in favor of sellers. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
FOREXCOM:BTCUSD
by FOREXcom
1
Bitcoin Testing Resistance Near $95K – Key Levels to WatchBitcoin is currently consolidating just below the $95,000 resistance after a strong move from the FWB:83K region. Price is hovering near the upper range of a key supply zone, with the Bull Market Support Band flipping to potential support around $90,500. A clean breakout above $95K could open the door toward the psychological $100K level, while a rejection might lead to a retest of the $90K or even GETTEX:87K zones. Watching closely for confirmation of either breakout or reversal in the coming sessions.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by cryptodecoder0x
Bitcoin Testing 95k as Resistance TRENDLINE #Bitcoin at a CRITICAL juncture! Testing the downward trendline (double yellow) at 95K as resistance, originating from 107K in Dec. This trendline has repeatedly rejected BTC, with multiple tests at 95K this week. Historically, rejections have led to drops to 82K support (tested 4x) or even the uptrend line at 77K (Mar/early Apr). If BTC fails to break & hold above 95K by week's close, we may retest 82K on the 2023 uptrend (red line). BUT, if we break 95K and hold, we could target 109K, with a potential range of 125K-140K for new highs! #Crypto #BTC #TechnicalAnalysis
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by LearnCryptology
Bitcoin's Crossroads: Golden Cross Signals, Capital Floods In The Bitcoin narrative is rarely static. It oscillates between fervent optimism and deep skepticism, driven by a complex interplay of technical patterns, on-chain data, macroeconomic shifts, and evolving investor perceptions. Recently, several compelling signals have converged, painting a picture of a market potentially at a significant juncture. A rare "Golden Cross" technical pattern has formed, an event often associated with the start of major bull cycles. Simultaneously, on-chain data reveals a surge in "hot supply," indicating a significant influx of new capital and heightened market activity. Adding another layer, Bitcoin demonstrated surprising resilience and relative strength against traditional assets like gold and tech stocks during recent market turbulence, exhibiting an unusually low beta that hints at potential maturation. This confluence of technical momentum, fresh capital inflow, and changing market behavior warrants a deep dive. What exactly is the Golden Cross, and what does its appearance portend for Bitcoin? How should we interpret the nearly $40 billion in "hot supply," and what risks and opportunities does this influx of potentially newer, less experienced capital present? And critically, does Bitcoin's recent outperformance and low correlation signal a fundamental shift in its role within the broader financial landscape? This article will dissect these interconnected developments, exploring their historical context, potential implications, and the inherent uncertainties that always accompany the world's leading cryptocurrency. Decoding the Golden Cross: A Technical Harbinger? Technical analysis (TA) is a cornerstone of trading in many markets, including cryptocurrency. It involves studying past price action and volume data to identify patterns and trends that might predict future movements. One of the most widely recognized and discussed bullish signals in TA is the "Golden Cross." • What is a Golden Cross? A Golden Cross occurs when a shorter-term moving average (MA) of an asset's price crosses above a longer-term moving average. The most commonly watched Golden Cross involves the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crossing above the 200-day SMA. o The 50-day SMA reflects the average closing price over the last 50 trading days, representing recent momentum. o The 200-day SMA reflects the average closing price over the last 200 trading days, representing the longer-term underlying trend. • Traditional Interpretation: When the faster-moving 50-day MA overtakes the slower 200-day MA, it suggests that recent price momentum is strengthening significantly relative to the long-term trend. Technicians interpret this as a potential confirmation that a bottom may be in, and a new, sustained uptrend could be starting. It's often seen as a lagging indicator (confirming a trend already underway) but one that can signal the potential for significant further upside. Conversely, the opposite pattern, where the 50-day MA crosses below the 200-day MA, is known as a "Death Cross" and is considered a bearish signal. • The "Once Per Cycle" Phenomenon: The claim that this specific Golden Cross (50-day crossing 200-day) happens "once every cycle" for Bitcoin generally refers to its appearance after major bear market bottoms and preceding significant bull runs in Bitcoin's roughly four-year halving cycles. Historically, looking back at Bitcoin's chart, these crosses have indeed often preceded periods of substantial price appreciation. For example, Golden Crosses occurred in 2012, 2015, 2019, and 2020, each preceding major bull markets, albeit with varying time lags and magnitudes. • Historical Performance and Caveats: While historically bullish for Bitcoin, the Golden Cross is not an infallible predictor. o Lagging Nature: By the time the cross occurs, a significant portion of the initial rally off the bottom may have already happened. o False Signals: Markets can experience "whipsaws," where a Golden Cross forms briefly only to reverse into a Death Cross shortly after, trapping overly eager bulls. This was seen briefly in some shorter timeframes or even on the daily chart during choppy periods in Bitcoin's history. o Context Matters: The broader market environment, macroeconomic factors, and fundamental developments play crucial roles. A Golden Cross during a period of intense regulatory crackdown or global recession might not have the same impact as one occurring during quantitative easing and growing institutional interest. o Confirmation Needed: Traders often look for confirmation signals after a Golden Cross, such as sustained price action above the moving averages, increasing volume, or bullish follow-through patterns. What to Expect from the Golden Cross? The formation of a Golden Cross on Bitcoin's daily chart is undeniably a positive technical development that captures market attention. It suggests underlying strength and improving medium-term momentum. Historically, it has often marked the transition from a bear market recovery phase to a more sustained uptrend. However, expectations should be tempered with caution. It's a signal, not a guarantee. It indicates potential but requires confirmation through continued price strength and favorable market conditions. Relying solely on this pattern for investment decisions is risky. It should be considered alongside other factors – on-chain data, fundamental developments, and macroeconomic context – to form a more complete picture. The most reasonable expectation is that the Golden Cross increases the probability of further upside but doesn't eliminate the possibility of consolidation, pullbacks, or even failure of the nascent uptrend. The Heat is On: Understanding the Surge in 'Hot Supply' While technical analysis looks at price charts, on-chain analysis delves into the activity happening directly on the Bitcoin blockchain, providing insights into investor behavior and capital flows. A key metric highlighted recently is the rise of "Bitcoin hot supply." • What is 'Hot Supply'? "Hot Supply" typically refers to Bitcoin that has been moved on the blockchain relatively recently, often within the last few months (definitions can vary slightly between analytics platforms, e.g., coins moved within the last 1-3 months or sometimes up to 6 months). These coins are considered "hot" because they are more likely to be involved in active trading or spending, as opposed to "cold" supply held in long-term storage (often associated with HODlers). It represents the portion of the Bitcoin supply that is more liquid and actively circulating. • Nearing $40 Billion: The fact that this hot supply is nearing a value of $40 billion is significant. It indicates a substantial amount of Bitcoin changing hands and reflects a "surge in capital turnover," as described in the analysis. This suggests heightened market activity, increased liquidity, and, crucially, the entry of new participants or the reactivation of dormant capital. • New Investors Flooding In (at High Prices?): The analysis explicitly links this surge to new investors and speculators taking an interest, likely attracted by Bitcoin's recent price recovery and multi-month highs. The mention of "$95K" (even if potentially a typo or hypothetical peak target in the source analysis) symbolizes the risk that many of these new entrants might have acquired Bitcoin at relatively elevated prices compared to the cycle lows. This creates a cohort of investors with a higher cost basis. • Implications of High Hot Supply: o Increased Liquidity: More coins moving means more potential buyers and sellers, which can facilitate smoother price discovery and larger trades. o Fuel for Rallies: An influx of new capital provides buying pressure that can sustain upward price momentum. Speculative interest often feeds on itself in bull markets. o Increased Volatility: Coins held by newer entrants or short-term speculators are often considered "weaker hands." These holders may be more susceptible to panic selling during price dips or quick profit-taking during rallies, potentially leading to sharper price swings in both directions. o Potential Overhead Supply: If the price stalls or reverses, the large volume of coins acquired at recent highs ( SGX:40B worth moved recently) represents potential selling pressure as these holders seek to break even or cut losses. Interpreting the Influx: The surge in hot supply is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it confirms growing interest and provides the necessary capital flow to potentially validate the bullish signal from the Golden Cross. New demand is essential for sustained price increases. On the other hand, it introduces a layer of fragility. The market's ability to absorb potential selling from these newer, higher-cost-basis holders during inevitable corrections will be a key test of the underlying strength of the current trend. Monitoring whether this "hot supply" gradually cools down (moves into longer-term holding) or remains elevated will be crucial in the coming months. Bitcoin's Relative Strength: Outshining Gold and Tech Amid Turmoil Beyond technicals and on-chain flows, Bitcoin's performance relative to traditional assets, especially during periods of market stress, offers valuable insights into its evolving perception. The observation that Bitcoin outperformed both gold (a traditional safe-haven) and tech stocks (risk-on assets) in April, particularly amidst "tariff turmoil" or other geopolitical/economic uncertainties, is noteworthy. • Challenging Correlations: Historically, Bitcoin often traded with a high correlation to risk assets like tech stocks, particularly during market downturns. Investors tended to sell Bitcoin alongside equities during risk-off periods. Gold, conversely, often acts as a safe haven, rallying during uncertainty. Bitcoin outperforming both simultaneously suggests a potential breakdown in these typical correlations, at least temporarily. • Why the Outperformance? Several factors could contribute: o Unique Drivers: Bitcoin's price is influenced by factors unique to its ecosystem, such as halving cycles, adoption news, regulatory developments, and flows into new instruments like spot ETFs. These can sometimes override broader market trends. o Inflation Hedge Narrative: Persistent inflation concerns may lead some investors to seek alternatives to fiat currency, benefiting both gold and Bitcoin, but perhaps Bitcoin more so due to its perceived higher growth potential. o Safe-Haven Experimentation: While gold remains the established safe haven, some investors might be tentatively allocating a small portion to Bitcoin as a potential alternative store of value or hedge against systemic risk, especially if they perceive traditional systems as vulnerable. o Decoupling Narrative: Some proponents argue that Bitcoin is increasingly decoupling from traditional markets as it matures and establishes itself as a distinct asset class. The recent performance could be seen as evidence supporting this view. o Coincidence/Timing: It's also possible that the timing was coincidental, with Bitcoin-specific catalysts driving its price higher while unrelated factors weighed on gold and tech stocks during that specific period. Significance of Relative Strength: Demonstrating strength during periods when traditional assets are struggling enhances Bitcoin's appeal. It challenges the simplistic "risk-on only" label and suggests it might offer diversification benefits. If this pattern persists over longer periods and across different market stressors, it could significantly bolster the case for Bitcoin's inclusion in traditional investment portfolios. Maturation Signal? The Low Beta Phenomenon Closely related to relative strength is the concept of beta. Beta measures the volatility or systematic risk of an asset compared to the overall market (often represented by an index like the S&P 500). • Beta Explained: o A beta of 1 indicates the asset's price tends to move with the market. o A beta greater than 1 indicates the asset is more volatile than the market. o A beta less than 1 indicates the asset is less volatile than the market. o A beta of 0 suggests no correlation. • Bitcoin's Historically High Beta: Traditionally, Bitcoin has exhibited a high beta, especially relative to equity markets. It was often seen as a high-volatility asset that amplified broader market moves, particularly to the downside during risk-off events. • Recent Low Beta Observation: The finding that Bitcoin displayed an "unusually low beta during recent market stress" is significant. It implies that its price movements were less correlated with, and potentially less volatile than, the broader market during that period of turbulence. • Implications of Low Beta: o Maturation Narrative: A lower, less correlated beta is often characteristic of more mature assets or distinct asset classes. It suggests investors might be viewing Bitcoin with a longer-term perspective, less prone to knee-jerk selling based on short-term fluctuations in other markets. o Diversification Potential: Assets with low correlation to traditional portfolios (like stocks and bonds) are valuable for diversification, as they can potentially reduce overall portfolio volatility. A sustained low beta would strengthen Bitcoin's diversification credentials. o Shift in Holder Base?: It could indicate a shift towards more institutional and long-term holders who are less reactive to daily market noise compared to purely retail speculators. o Store of Value Aspirations: While still highly volatile compared to traditional stores of value like gold, a decreasing beta could be interpreted as a tentative step towards fulfilling some store-of-value properties, particularly if it holds value better than risk assets during downturns. Is it Sustainable? While the recent low beta is an encouraging sign for Bitcoin bulls and proponents of its maturation narrative, it's crucial to question its sustainability. Was it a temporary anomaly driven by specific market conditions in April, or does it represent a durable shift? Bitcoin's correlation and beta have fluctuated throughout its history. Renewed market panic, significant regulatory shocks, or major shifts in macroeconomic policy could potentially cause correlations to snap back. Continued observation across different market environments is needed to determine if this low beta is a new regime or a fleeting characteristic. Synthesizing the Signals: A Complex Tapestry Bringing these threads together – the Golden Cross, the surge in hot supply, relative outperformance, and low beta – reveals a complex and somewhat contradictory picture: 1. Technical Momentum Meets New Money: The Golden Cross provides a technically bullish backdrop, potentially encouraging more participants. The SGX:40B in hot supply confirms that new capital is entering, providing the fuel that could validate the technical signal. 2. Speculation vs. Maturation: The influx of hot supply points towards increased speculation and potentially "weaker hands." Yet, the low beta and relative outperformance during stress hint at underlying strength and potential maturation, suggesting a core base of holders is becoming less reactive. This highlights the heterogeneous nature of the Bitcoin market, with different investor cohorts exhibiting different behaviors simultaneously. 3. Opportunity and Risk: The convergence creates both opportunity and risk. The opportunity lies in the potential for the Golden Cross and new capital to ignite a sustained rally, further bolstered if Bitcoin continues to act as a diversifier (low beta). The risk lies in the potential fragility introduced by the high volume of recent entrants (hot supply) who might capitulate during dips, potentially invalidating the Golden Cross and reversing the low beta trend. The current environment suggests Bitcoin is navigating a transition. The technicals point upwards, fresh capital is flowing in, and its behavior relative to traditional markets is showing intriguing signs of change. However, the presence of significant "hot" money serves as a reminder that volatility and sharp corrections remain distinct possibilities. Overarching Risks and Necessary Caveats Despite the positive signals, numerous risks persist: • Technical Analysis is Not Predictive: The Golden Cross is a historical pattern, not a crystal ball. It can fail. • 'Hot Supply' Risk: A large cohort of investors with a high cost basis can become a source of significant selling pressure if sentiment shifts. • Macroeconomic Headwinds: Persistent inflation, rising interest rates (globally), geopolitical conflicts, or a global recession could dampen appetite for risk assets, including Bitcoin. • Regulatory Uncertainty: While spot ETFs marked progress, the global regulatory landscape for crypto remains fragmented and uncertain. Unexpected crackdowns remain a threat. • Correlation Risk: The low beta and decoupling narrative could prove temporary. Bitcoin could easily recouple with risk assets during a broader market panic. Conclusion: Bitcoin at an Inflection Point? Bitcoin currently stands at a fascinating crossroads, illuminated by a confluence of compelling, albeit sometimes conflicting, signals. The rare Golden Cross offers a technically bullish omen, suggesting underlying momentum is shifting favorably for a potential long-term uptrend, echoing patterns seen in previous cycles. This technical optimism is fueled by tangible evidence of renewed interest, with nearly $40 billion in "hot supply" indicating a significant surge in capital turnover and the arrival of fresh speculative and investment capital. Simultaneously, Bitcoin's recent behavior exhibits intriguing signs of potential maturation. Its ability to outperform traditional safe havens like gold and risk assets like tech stocks during periods of market stress, coupled with an unusually low beta, challenges its historical "risk-on only" profile. This suggests a growing base of investors may be viewing it through a longer-term lens, potentially as a unique store of value or a portfolio diversifier, less swayed by short-term market noise. However, this complex picture demands caution. The very influx of capital that fuels optimism also introduces fragility, as newer entrants with higher cost bases may be quicker to sell during downturns. The Golden Cross, while historically significant, remains a lagging indicator with no guarantee of future success. And the low beta, while encouraging, could prove ephemeral in the face of severe macroeconomic shocks or shifts in market sentiment. Ultimately, Bitcoin's trajectory towards 2030 and beyond will depend on its ability to navigate these dynamics. Can it convert the current technical momentum and capital influx into a sustainable trend? Will its utility and adoption grow sufficiently to solidify its role beyond pure speculation? Will it continue to carve out a unique space in the financial ecosystem, proving its resilience and diversification benefits across various market conditions? The current signals suggest the potential is there, but the path forward remains intrinsically linked to broader economic forces, regulatory evolution, and the ever-unpredictable psychology of the market. Bitcoin is flashing signs of both renewed vigor and evolving character, making the coming months and years critical in defining its future role.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
Bitcoin Month end approachs and THIS is where we are- Cross Road As we end April, we can see a similar size candle to the one we saw in April 2017 and, if we are still following the 2013 - 2017 Fractal ( even if a little loosely now) then we can expect the next Few months to lead to the Next ATH. However, as explained in the previous post about the Long Term Resistance Arc and how we may be in the Closing stages of the First Bitcoin Cycle, the over head resistance is STRONG ( dashed Arc ) These 2 lines of resistance at around 109K usd form an intersection and this is with little doubt the point to try and break through. Historically, BTC PA has tried to aim towards intersections of Trendlines when they have strength So, This is what I am expecting for MAY but I will explain this in more detail in the montlly Candle Colour post in a couple fo days What to expect The April candle Will close GREEN and we now need a Green MAY candle and this MAY candle needs to break over the dotted Threshold line, as it did in May 2017 And we have to wait and see if that happens
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Bullish for ShortermBitcoin currently trade around $93,911 having broken resitance above $88,000-$89,000 zone. The breakout, supported by strong volume, positions Bitcoin favorably for further gains, although a short-term pullback appears likely. Technical indicators remain bullish: Price holds above the 21-EMA and 30-SMA, both beginning to slope upward. Quarterly VWAP levels at $89,485 and $84,484 provide strong support. The Volume Profile suggests heavy buyer interest around $84,000–$86,000. A minor retracement toward $88,000–$89,000 could precede a consolidation phase before Bitcoin targets $96,000 and eventually the psychological $100,000 mark. Bitcoin remains in a strong position. Tactical patience and disciplined risk management will be key to capitalizing on the next major move.
Long
by Perseusx01