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Bitcoinpriceprediction

Bitcoin RSI Dips Below 30 Again!The above chart highlights Bitcoin's price action alongside the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on a daily timeframe. Historically, every time the RSI dropped below 30, indicating oversold conditions, Bitcoin experienced a price bounce shortly after. The chart marks these moments with blue circles and green arrows, showing clear upward reversals following each dip. Currently, Bitcoin's RSI has once again fallen below 30, with the price around $87,000 after a sharp 10% drop. If past patterns hold true, this could signal an upcoming bullish reversal.
Long
by HexaTrades
Bitcoin Plummets: ETF Exodus, Liquidations, and Global Jitters Bitcoin's recent plunge below the $90,000 threshold, a level unseen since November 2024, has sent ripples of concern through the cryptocurrency market. This sharp correction is attributed to a confluence of factors, including persistent ETF outflows, a surge in leveraged liquidations, and mounting geopolitical tensions, creating a volatile environment that has shaken investor confidence. The most immediate catalyst for Bitcoin's decline has been the sustained outflows from US-listed Bitcoin ETFs. These exchange-traded funds, which had previously fueled Bitcoin's ascent by providing institutional investors with easy access to the cryptocurrency, have recently witnessed a reversal in sentiment. Investors, possibly reacting to broader market anxieties and profit-taking, have begun withdrawing funds, putting downward pressure on Bitcoin's price. This outflow signals a shift in institutional appetite, raising questions about the sustainability of the previous bullish momentum. Adding fuel to the fire, the crypto market has experienced a significant wave of liquidations. Over $1.3 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out as Bitcoin's price plummeted. These liquidations, which occur when traders using borrowed funds are unable to meet margin requirements, exacerbate price volatility by triggering cascading sell orders. The sheer volume of liquidations underscores the high degree of leverage prevalent in the crypto market, highlighting the inherent risks associated with such trading strategies. Furthermore, macroeconomic uncertainties are contributing to the risk-off sentiment permeating financial markets. The recent strengthening of the Japanese yen, often seen as a safe-haven asset, reflects investor concerns about global economic stability. Similarly, the dip in Nasdaq futures suggests a broader aversion to risk in traditional equity markets, which often spills over into the crypto space. The re-emergence of US-China trade tensions adds another layer of uncertainty, as any escalation could have far-reaching economic consequences, impacting investor sentiment and asset valuations. The technical outlook for Bitcoin remains precarious. Analysts are closely monitoring the $85,000 support level, which, if breached, could trigger a further sell-off. The potential for over $1 billion in long liquidations below this level suggests that a significant drop is possible. Some analysts are even warning of a potential free fall to $81,000 if the $85,000 support fails to hold, indicating a severe test of market resilience. Moreover, a more dire prediction posits that Bitcoin could potentially drop below $70,000, erasing gains made since the US election. This scenario, while alarming, highlights the vulnerability of Bitcoin to macroeconomic factors and investor sentiment. The prospect of a significant correction raises concerns about the stability of the crypto market and its ability to withstand external shocks. The current market conditions serve as a stark reminder of the inherent volatility of cryptocurrencies. While Bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable resilience in the past, its price remains susceptible to a wide range of factors, including ETF flows, leveraged trading, and global economic conditions. Investors must remain vigilant and exercise caution in navigating this turbulent landscape. The recent downturn underscores the importance of risk management in cryptocurrency trading. Leveraged positions, while offering the potential for amplified gains, also carry the risk of substantial losses. The high degree of leverage prevalent in the market can exacerbate price swings, leading to rapid liquidations and further downward pressure. Furthermore, the growing correlation between traditional financial markets and the crypto space highlights the need for investors to consider broader macroeconomic factors. Changes in interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical tensions can all impact investor sentiment and asset valuations. In conclusion, Bitcoin's recent tumble below $90,000 reflects a confluence of factors, including ETF outflows, leveraged liquidations, and global economic uncertainties. The market remains highly volatile, and further price swings are possible. Investors should exercise caution and prioritize risk management in navigating this challenging environment. The ability of Bitcoin to recover from this downturn will depend on a variety of factors, including the resumption of ETF inflows, a reduction in leveraged trading, and a stabilization of global economic conditions. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether Bitcoin can regain its footing or succumb to further downward pressure.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bryandowningqln
Bitcoin's Volatility Lull: Is a Major Breakout Imminent?Bitcoin, the undisputed king of cryptocurrencies, finds itself in a peculiar state of limbo. While the broader financial world buzzes with geopolitical uncertainty and economic shifts, BTC's price action has settled into a remarkably narrow range, leading to a significant drop in implied volatility. This period of relative calm, however, is juxtaposed with significant undercurrents: a major exchange hack, strategic accumulation by corporate giants, and the ever-present debate over Bitcoin's next major price movement. One of the most notable observations is the near-record low implied volatility. Implied volatility, a measure of the market's expectation of future price swings, has dwindled, suggesting traders are anticipating less dramatic price fluctuations. This quietude is unusual for Bitcoin, a notoriously volatile asset. Traditionally, such suppressed volatility often precedes a significant breakout, either upward or downward. The current stasis could be a coiled spring, ready to unleash a surge of price action when the right catalyst emerges. Adding another layer of complexity is Bitcoin's rangebound trading. Despite the recent Bybit hack, which raised concerns about exchange security and potential market instability, Bitcoin has remained remarkably resilient within its established trading corridor. This resilience, however, has also bred a sense of unease among traders and analysts. The lack of a decisive break in either direction has left many wondering whether this consolidation is a period of accumulation or a sign of waning momentum. The Bybit hack, while disruptive, appears to have had a limited impact on Bitcoin's overall price trajectory. This suggests that the market may be becoming more adept at absorbing such shocks, a sign of its growing maturity. Nevertheless, the incident serves as a stark reminder of the inherent risks associated with centralized exchanges and the importance of robust security measures. Amidst this backdrop of low volatility and rangebound trading, the pronouncements of prominent traders and corporate players are adding fuel to the fire. A crucial narrative revolves around the $106,000 price level. According to some analysts, this threshold represents a critical juncture for Bitcoin. A successful reclaim of this level would, they argue, signal the beginning of a new phase of price discovery, potentially leading to substantial gains. However, the path to $105,000 + is far from certain. Counterarguments suggest that a significant dip to $80,000 remains a distinct possibility. This perspective highlights the inherent uncertainty of the cryptocurrency market, where technical analysis and fundamental factors can often provide conflicting signals. The potential for a sharp correction underscores the importance of risk management and the need for traders to remain vigilant. On the bullish side, MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor continues to make waves with his unwavering commitment to Bitcoin. The company's "21/21" plan, which involves ongoing Bitcoin accumulation, is progressing steadily following a recent $2 billion convertible note offering. Saylor's bullish stance and his company's strategic acquisitions have become a significant market force, providing a powerful vote of confidence in Bitcoin's long-term potential. MicroStrategy's approach is not merely speculative; it is a calculated bet on Bitcoin's role as a store of value and a hedge against inflation. This strategy has resonated with other institutional investors, contributing to the growing acceptance of Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class. The company's continued accumulation efforts are likely to exert upward pressure on Bitcoin's price, particularly if demand from other sources increases. The confluence of these factors – low implied volatility, rangebound trading, the $105,000+ debate, and MicroStrategy's aggressive accumulation – creates a fascinating and potentially explosive dynamic. The low volatility could be a temporary lull before a significant price movement, while the rangebound trading indicates a period of indecision that will eventually resolve itself. The $105,000+ level represents a critical test for Bitcoin. A successful breach of this threshold could trigger a wave of buying, propelling the price to new highs. Conversely, a failure to reclaim this level could lead to a significant correction, potentially validating the bearish predictions of a dip to $80,000. In the meantime, MicroStrategy's continued accumulation provides a strong foundation of support for Bitcoin's price. The company's strategic approach and its commitment to long-term holding suggest that it is not swayed by short-term price fluctuations. In conclusion, Bitcoin's current state is a complex interplay of conflicting signals. The low implied volatility and rangebound trading create an atmosphere of uncertainty, while the $105,000+ debate and MicroStrategy's accumulation provide clear points of focus. The cryptocurrency market is poised for a potential breakout, and the direction of that breakout will likely be determined by the interplay of these factors. Whether Bitcoin will reclaim $105,000+ or dip to $80,000 remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: the next chapter in Bitcoin's story is about to unfold.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bryandowningqln
BTCUSDT Long-Term Projection – Accumulation Before Breakout?BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P is currently in an accumulation phase, following historical liquidity grabs and retracements. The chart highlights key liquidity zones, Fibonacci levels, and potential price movements. 🔑 Key Observations: Possible Accumulation Phase between $88,000 - $97,000 before a bullish move. nPOC ($97,148) is a critical level—price may revisit before moving higher. Liquidity Zones: 1-week, 1-month, and 3-month liquidity targets identified. Fibonacci Levels: Watching the 0.618 ($96,965) and 0.786 ( $93,422 ) retracement levels for a potential dip-buy opportunity. Long-Term Target: $120,000+ by the end of 2025. 💡 Will BTC accumulate before making a strong push to new highs? Let me know your thoughts in the comments! 🚀📈
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.DLong
by Only4Trades
1
BTC/USDT - Liquidity Grab & Potential UPSIDE MOVEMarket Analysis: Liquidity Sweep: BTC recently grabbed sell-side liquidity around $95,215 - $95,141, triggering stop losses and gathering institutional orders. Reversal Signs: After tapping into this liquidity, a bullish reaction has started, with price now moving towards the buy-side liquidity range. Potential Upside Move: If BTC maintains support above $95,600, we can expect a push towards the $97,000 - $97,600 range. Trade Setup: ✅ Entry: $95,800 - $96,000 (After price confirmation) 🎯 Target 1: $97,050 🎯 Target 2: $97,600 🚀 Extended Target: $98,800 (If momentum continues) ❌ Stop-Loss: Below $95,100 (Below liquidity grab zone) Trade Rationale: 📌 Liquidity Grab: Market makers swept stop losses, indicating potential reversal. 📌 Market Structure: Bullish recovery from key support zone. 📌 Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:3 (low risk, high reward setup). 🔔 Waiting for confirmation before entry! A strong bullish candle close above $96,000 can confirm entry. 🚀 📢 Let me know your thoughts! Are you bullish or bearish on BTC? 📈👇
Long
by naumanfx_
Can Bitcoin Survive the Inflation Storm?Bitcoin, the world's most prominent cryptocurrency, has experienced a turbulent period, recently dipping below the $95,000 mark.1 This price correction comes amidst growing concerns about rising inflation in the United States, as reflected in the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The CPI, a key indicator of inflation, surpassed market expectations, reigniting fears of persistent price pressures and their potential impact on risk assets like Bitcoin.2 Inflation's Shadow Over Bitcoin The unexpectedly high CPI reading has sent ripples through financial markets, with investors becoming increasingly wary of the Federal Reserve's response to inflation. The Fed's primary tool for combating inflation is raising interest rates, a move that can make borrowing more expensive and potentially slow down economic growth. This prospect often leads investors to reduce their exposure to riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. The connection between inflation and Bitcoin is complex. While some argue that Bitcoin can serve as a hedge against inflation due to its limited supply, others believe that it is still too volatile to be considered a safe haven asset. The recent price drop suggests that market sentiment is currently leaning towards the latter view, with investors reacting to the inflation news by selling off their Bitcoin holdings. Market Dynamics and Technical Levels Bitcoin's price movements are influenced by a multitude of factors, including macroeconomic trends, regulatory developments, and market sentiment. In addition to inflation concerns, the recent price drop could also be attributed to normal market corrections, profit-taking by traders, and technical factors. Analyzing Bitcoin's price chart reveals key support and resistance levels that traders are closely monitoring. The $95,000 level appears to be a crucial support zone, and a sustained break below this level could lead to further price declines. On the upside, the $101,000 mark is a significant resistance level, and a decisive move above this level could signal a potential recovery for Bitcoin. The Fed's Dilemma and Potential Scenarios The latest CPI data presents a challenge for the Federal Reserve, which is tasked with balancing the goals of controlling inflation and maintaining economic growth. While the higher-than-expected inflation reading might suggest the need for more aggressive interest rate hikes, the Fed also needs to be mindful of the potential impact on economic activity. Despite calls for lower interest rates, the Fed is widely expected to continue its path of gradual rate increases in the coming months. The central bank has repeatedly emphasized its commitment to bringing inflation under control, and a strong labor market provides further support for its policy stance. Looking ahead, several scenarios could play out for Bitcoin. If inflation remains elevated, the Fed might need to take more aggressive action, potentially leading to further price declines for Bitcoin. On the other hand, if inflation starts to subside, the Fed could adopt a more dovish stance, which could provide some relief for Bitcoin and other risk assets. Bitcoin's Long-Term Outlook Despite the recent price volatility, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains positive for many market participants. The cryptocurrency's underlying technology, blockchain, continues to attract interest from various industries, and the adoption of Bitcoin by institutional investors is steadily increasing.3 Furthermore, some argue that Bitcoin's decentralized nature and limited supply make it an attractive alternative to traditional currencies, especially in times of economic uncertainty. While Bitcoin's price can be volatile in the short term, its long-term potential continues to draw investors seeking exposure to the digital asset space. Navigating the Uncertainty The current market environment is characterized by uncertainty, with inflation concerns and macroeconomic factors weighing on investor sentiment. Bitcoin, like other risk assets, is susceptible to these broader market trends. However, it is essential to remember that Bitcoin is a nascent asset class, and its price volatility is to be expected. Investors considering Bitcoin should carefully assess their risk tolerance and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. While Bitcoin's long-term potential remains intriguing, it is crucial to be aware of the inherent risks associated with investing in cryptocurrencies.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bryandowningqln
BITCOIN CRASH BEST TRADE IDEA🔻 BTC/USDT Short Setup - 30M Analysis 🔻 Bitcoin has rejected a key resistance zone around $97,400-$97,550, showing signs of a bearish move. Price has failed to break above this supply area, and now a potential sell-off towards the sell-side liquidity range is in play. 🔹 Entry: Around $97,400 (Retest of resistance) 🔹 Stop Loss: $97,550 (Above supply zone) 🔹 Target: $94,725-$94,711 (Liquidity sweep level) 📉 Analysis Breakdown: ✅ Price is reacting to a well-defined supply zone. ✅ Bearish momentum increasing after liquidity grab. ✅ Confluence with 50 EMA rejecting price. ✅ High probability of price reaching liquidity range. Watching this trade closely—let me know your thoughts! 📊🔥 #Bitcoin #BTCUSDT #CryptoTrading #PriceAction #TradingView #CryptoSignals 🚀
Short
by naumanfx_
4
BTC weekly zones 🚀 Bullish Breakthrough for Bitcoin on Weekly Time Frame! 🚀 Just in from @RSI_Trading_Concepts on @TradingView - the Bitcoin weekly chart is a beacon of bullish sentiment! 📈 The analysis highlights how the #BTC bulls are not just defending but thriving at the Overbought (OB) zone low on the weekly time frame, showcasing their strength and determination. 💪 🔹 Key Insights: Following a significant breakout in late 2023, Bitcoin has been on a steady upward trajectory. The bulls have impressively defended the OB Low at $53,841 on the weekly chart, indicating strong support within this zone. This defense of the OB Low, especially in an overbought RSI context, suggests that the market sentiment remains overwhelmingly positive, with momentum favoring further gains. 🔹 What This Tells Us: This isn't just a defense; it's a statement from the Bulls. Holding strong at this critical level, particularly after RSI has indicated overbought conditions, is a powerful sign that the current trend might continue. The market is showing us that despite being in overbought territory, the appetite for Bitcoin is still voracious. Don't overlook this signal! The resilience at this key level on the weekly chart could propel Bitcoin to new heights. Keep your eyes on this zone and prepare for what might be an exhilarating journey upwards. 🚀💹 #Bitcoin #Bullish #Crypto #RSI #TradingView
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by RSI_Trading_Concepts
The Wait Is Almost Over – Alt Season Is Near The moment we've all been waiting for is just around the corner. Now is the time to apply cycle indicators and accumulate high-potential coins. I was much less active in January due to the 3-day cycle failures on most altcoins. The last 60-day cycle of the weekly trend didn’t offer great buying opportunities. But now, it's time to start aiming for those 100%-200% gains with relatively lower risk. (Premium members are already scouting top coins in our chat!) 🔸 Not Everything Is Straightforward Yet Just because some alts have dipped **60-70%** over the last two months doesn’t mean they’ll immediately pump. You still need to **buy in the “green” zone** on cycle indicators—otherwise, you risk getting rekt. 🔹 Bitcoin Outlook BTC is slowly approaching its **60-day cycle low** toward the end of the month. The **3-day cycle topped above 80**, increasing the chances of BTC heading toward the **90s area** before finding support. 😱 More blood on the charts? Possibly. Right now, there are two types of traders: 1️⃣ Those who believe the top is in. 2️⃣ Those who think February will be extremely bullish. I believe once both groups are confused, the upside will resume—likely in March, after the 3-day cycle resets and Bitcoin takes another leg down to shake out traders. 📉 Watching the 2-Week & 3-Day Cycles When the 2-week cycle trends downward, we usually don’t perform well. Sure, we could reverse before the cycle fully resets, but ideally, we want the 3-day cycle to drop to around 20 before rebounding. If the 3-day cycle continues to fall (which is likely unless we move up soon), February could see more bearish action before a stronger recovery. Stay sharp & follow the cycles. 🚀
Long
by TheStrategyMaster
5
BTC / USDT: Gearing up for a breakout above trendline resistanceBitcoin (BTC/USDT): Gearing Up for a Breakout Above Trendline Resistance Bitcoin is setting up for a major move 📈 as it approaches a critical trendline resistance zone 📊. The price has been consolidating tightly, forming the perfect setup for a potential breakout 💥. If BTC successfully clears this resistance, we could see a strong bullish trend unfold 🚀. Keep a close eye 👀 and wait for confirmation before taking action. Key Insights: 1️⃣ Trendline Resistance: Bitcoin is nearing a long-standing trendline that has repeatedly acted as a barrier. A decisive break above this level could mark the start of a significant upward move. 2️⃣ Volume Surge: Watch for a notable increase in trading volume during the breakout to confirm strong buying pressure 🔥. 3️⃣ Bullish Signals: Indicators like RSI and MACD are showing strength ⚡, further supporting the potential for a bullish breakout. Steps to Confirm the Breakout: ✅ Look for a clear 4H or daily candle closing above the trendline 📍. ✅ A noticeable spike in volume during the breakout can signal strong buying activity 📊. ✅ A retest of the broken resistance as a new support zone adds credibility to the move. ⚠️ Be cautious of fake breakouts, such as sharp reversals or wicks above the trendline. Risk Management Strategies: 🔒 Use stop-loss orders to protect your capital. 🎯 Ensure position sizing aligns with your overall trading strategy. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) 🔍 before making investment decisions.
Long
by Crypto-By-Ghazi
Bitcoin Price Projection: $94,700- Both daily and hourly charts indicate a possible downtrend. - A 1 HR FVG sits between 98,754 and 98,916, which could act as resistance. - Multiple bearish FVGs sit above the HR FVG, so I see a good amount of resistance in the near term. - A big liquidity zone is under the last Lowest Low (96,256.75), which has yet to be swept. - If 96,256.75 finds no support, we could be headed as low as 94,709.43. At that price point, a huge liquidity zone is filled and a small 1hr FVG is hit.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Anon-Ron117
Bitcoin Price Surges Despite US-China Trade TensionsBitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency, has seen a surge in price in recent weeks, despite ongoing trade tensions between the US and China. Bitcoin's price has risen by over 20% in the last few months, and some analysts believe that it could reach a new all-time high in the near future. There are a number of factors that are driving Bitcoin's price growth. One factor is the increasing adoption of Bitcoin by institutional investors. In recent months, a number of major companies, such as Tesla and MicroStrategy, have announced that they have purchased Bitcoin as part of their treasury reserves.2 This has helped to legitimize Bitcoin as an investment asset and has attracted more institutional investors to the market. Another factor that is driving Bitcoin's price growth is the increasing use of Bitcoin as a means of payment. In recent months, a number of major companies, such as PayPal and Visa, have announced that they will allow their customers to use Bitcoin to make payments.3 This has made it easier for people to use Bitcoin in their everyday lives and has helped to increase demand for the cryptocurrency. Despite the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, Bitcoin has continued to perform well. This suggests that Bitcoin is becoming increasingly decoupled from traditional financial markets. This is likely due to the fact that Bitcoin is a decentralized currency that is not controlled by any central bank or government. As a result, Bitcoin is not as susceptible to the same economic and political risks as traditional currencies. However, it is important to note that the price of Bitcoin is still volatile and can fluctuate significantly in a short period of time. As a result, investors should be aware of the risks involved in investing in Bitcoin. Other factors driving Bitcoin's price In addition to the factors mentioned above, there are a number of other factors that are driving Bitcoin's price growth. These factors include: • The increasing scarcity of Bitcoin. There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoins in existence. This scarcity is one of the reasons why Bitcoin is seen as a store of value. • The increasing adoption of Bitcoin by developing countries. In many developing countries, Bitcoin is seen as a more stable and reliable currency than the local currency. This is driving demand for Bitcoin in these countries. • Overall, there are a number of factors that are driving Bitcoin's price growth. These factors suggest that Bitcoin could continue to perform well in the future. However, investors should be aware of the risks involved in investing in Bitcoin.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bryandowningqln
Bitcoin’s Incoming Bear Market!🚀 Bitcoin’s Bullish Phase: The Final Push Before the Fall? Bitcoin is currently in the parabolic uptrend phase of its halving cycle, with price action closely following historical patterns. Since the last halving on April 15, 2024, Bitcoin has mined approximately 42,480 blocks, pushing the market closer to the 70,000-block threshold where the trend historically reverses into a deep bear market. Based on historical patterns, Bitcoin’s next major bull market peak is expected around 150,000 USD, approximately 70,000 blocks post-halving (projected for August 2025). However, investors must prepare for what follows—a severe bear market fuelled by miner capitulation. 🔥The 70,000-Block Bearish Reversal: Why It Happens Every Cycle 1. The Mining Difficulty Trap & Rising Costs Bitcoin’s mining difficulty adjusts every 2,016 blocks (~2 weeks) to maintain the 10-minute block interval. As BTC price surges in the bull market, more miners join the network, driving competition and difficulty higher. This raises mining costs and squeezes profit margins, making it harder for smaller miners to stay afloat. ✅ Bull Market (~0-70,000 Blocks Post-Halving) High BTC prices offset increased difficulty, allowing miners to hold rather than sell. Low sell pressure from miners keeps Bitcoin in an uptrend. ❌ Bear Market (~70,000 Blocks Post-Halving) After BTC peaks, prices decline but difficulty remains high. Mining costs remain constant, while block rewards drop. Weaker miners can’t afford to mine at a loss and are forced to sell their BTC holdings to cover operational expenses. 2. The Snowball Effect: How Miner Capitulation Triggers a Crash Once inefficient miners begin selling, a chain reaction unfolds: 1️⃣ Bitcoin price starts declining after the cycle peak (~12-18 months post-halving). 2️⃣ Miners struggle to remain profitable due to high difficulty and lower block rewards. 3️⃣ Miners begin offloading BTC to cover expenses, increasing supply in the market. 4️⃣ More BTC supply leads to further price drops, triggering panic selling. 5️⃣ Additional miners shut down operations, selling off reserves, further flooding the market. 6️⃣ Capitulation accelerates, causing a cascading effect similar to leveraged liquidations seen in past bear markets. 🔄 This cycle repeats until enough miners exit, difficulty adjusts downward, and BTC stabilizes. 3. Historical Proof: How Miner Capitulation Has Marked Every Bear Market Each Bitcoin bear market aligns with major miner capitulation events. Here’s how past cycles have played out: 📌 2012 Halving: Bull top in late 2013, miner capitulation in 2014, BTC fell -80%. 📌 2016 Halving: Bull top in late 2017, miner capitulation in 2018, BTC fell -84%. 📌 2020 Halving: Bull top in late 2021, miner capitulation in 2022, BTC fell -78%. 📌 2024 Halving: Expected bull top in late 2025, miner capitulation likely in 2026?, BTC decline TBD but estimated to be around -60%. 🔹 In all cases, BTC topped ~70,000 blocks after the halving, followed by a deep drawdown driven by miner capitulation. 🔹 The selling pressure from miners perfectly aligns with the start of major market crashes. 4. The Accumulation Phase: What Follows the Crash? After miners capitulate and difficulty adjusts downward, Bitcoin enters a sideways accumulation phase (~140,000-210,000 blocks post-halving). Weaker miners have already exited, reducing sell pressure. Surviving miners adjust to lower rewards and stop mass selling BTC. Smart money (whales & institutions) begin accumulating at undervalued prices. The MVRV ratio drops below 1, signalling a market bottom. Bitcoin stabilizes, setting the stage for the next bull cycle. This predictable recovery cycle lays the groundwork for Bitcoin’s next exponential rally into the next halving period. The Bitcoin Bear Market Prediction for 2025-2026 ✅ Bitcoin is currently on track to peak near ~$150,000 around 70,000 blocks post-halving (August 2025). ✅ Following this, BTC is expected to enter its bear market, with prices potentially falling to ~$60,000 (by December 2026). ✅ The primary catalyst for this crash will be miner capitulation, just as it has been in every prior cycle. Final Thoughts If history repeats, the Bitcoin market is set to follow a sharp parabolic rise to ~$150,000 before undergoing a 70,000-block miner-driven selloff into a multi-month bear market. Investors should be aware of this pattern and plan accordingly. Sources & Data Validation The insights presented in this article are based on historical Bitcoin price cycles, on-chain analytics, and mining difficulty trends from various sources, including: Blockchain Data (Glassnode, CoinMetrics) Historical BTC Halving Data (Bitcoin Whitepaper, Blockchain Explorers) Market Analysis Reports (Messari, Arcane Research) Macroeconomic Influences (Federal Reserve Reports, Global Liquidity Cycles) Disclaimer: Not an Investment Recommendation This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Conduct your own research and consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Theperfectionist
10
BTC / USDT : Holding strong at 92K - Bounce incoming ?Bitcoin (BTC/USDT): Holding Strong at GETTEX:92K – Bounce Incoming? Bitcoin is showing resilience at the GETTEX:92K support level, holding firm despite market fluctuations. This critical level has acted as a strong demand zone, and if buyers step in, we could see a bullish bounce from here. The next move will be crucial in determining BTC’s short-term trend. Key Insights: 1️⃣ Major Support at GETTEX:92K : BTC has been testing this level, and a strong rebound could trigger a move towards higher resistance zones. 2️⃣ Volume Confirmation: A noticeable increase in buy volume would signal strength and confirm the potential bounce. 3️⃣ Bullish Indicators: Momentum indicators like RSI and MACD are showing signs of reversal, suggesting that bulls might be ready to take control. Steps to Confirm the Bounce: ✅ Strong 4H or Daily Close Above GETTEX:92K – A solid candle close above this level would confirm demand. ✅ Volume Surge During the Rebound – Watch for increasing buying pressure to validate the move. ✅ Retest Holding as Support – If BTC retests GETTEX:92K and holds, it strengthens the bullish case. ⚠️ Beware of Fakeouts – Sudden dips below GETTEX:92K followed by quick recoveries could indicate stop-hunt moves. Risk Management Strategies: 🔒 Use Stop-Loss Orders – Protect your capital in case of unexpected breakdowns. 🎯 Position Sizing – Ensure your trade aligns with your overall strategy and risk tolerance. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always DYOR before making any investment decisions. 🔍
Long
by Crypto-By-Ghazi
1
BTC Volatility Hits 6-Month High, Options Trading ExplodesImplied and realized volatility indexes hit the highest levels since August's yen carry trade unwind. Bitcoin (BTC), the world's largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has always been synonymous with volatility. However, recent market activity indicates a significant surge in price fluctuations, with both implied and realized volatility indexes reaching levels not seen since August of the previous year. This spike in volatility coincides with a renewed frenzy in the Bitcoin options market, suggesting that traders are anticipating significant price swings in the near future. Understanding Volatility In financial markets, volatility refers to the degree of variation in the price of a trading asset over time. High volatility implies that the price of an asset can fluctuate dramatically over a short period, while low volatility suggests relatively stable price movements. Volatility can be measured in two primary ways: 1. Realized Volatility: This is a historical measure of how much an asset's price has fluctuated in the past. It is typically calculated by looking at the standard deviation of price changes over a specific period, such as 30 days. 2. Implied Volatility: This is a forward-looking measure of how much the market expects an asset's price to fluctuate in the future. It is derived from the pricing of options contracts, which give the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a specific price on or before a certain date. Current Market Trends The increase in implied volatility suggests that options traders are pricing in a higher probability of significant price swings in Bitcoin. This could be due to a number of factors, including: • Increased Institutional Participation: The growing involvement of institutional investors in the Bitcoin market has led to larger trading volumes and potentially greater price swings. • Regulatory Uncertainty: The lack of clear regulatory frameworks for cryptocurrencies in many jurisdictions continues to create uncertainty and contribute to volatility. • Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment towards Bitcoin can also play a significant role in its volatility. Positive news and developments can lead to rapid price increases, while negative news can trigger sharp declines. Options Market Frenzy The surge in Bitcoin volatility is closely linked to a renewed frenzy in the Bitcoin options market. Options contracts provide traders with a way to bet on future price movements without having to directly buy or sell the underlying asset. The recent increase in options trading suggests that traders are actively seeking to capitalize on the expected price swings in Bitcoin. One notable trend in the options market is the increasing demand for call options, which give the holder the right to buy Bitcoin at a specific price. This indicates that many traders are betting on further price increases in the cryptocurrency. Potential Risks While the current market conditions may present opportunities for some traders, it is important to be aware of the potential risks associated with high volatility. Rapid price swings can lead to significant losses for those who are not adequately prepared. For latecomers to the Bitcoin market, the risk of immediate unrealized losses is particularly high. If the price of Bitcoin were to suddenly decline, those who recently bought in at higher prices could see their investments quickly lose value. Conclusion Bitcoin's recent surge in volatility, coupled with the frenzy in the options market, highlights the inherent risks and opportunities associated with this digital asset. While the potential for significant gains exists, traders must also be prepared for the possibility of substantial losses. As the Bitcoin market continues to evolve, it is crucial to stay informed and exercise caution when making investment decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
Bitcoin , next target Evening folks, sorry for being absent I’m ridiculously busy with my businesses and new year , btw wish you all the best and a year of getting massive mountain of money lol . Keeping my chart simple you I wont cause confusion. Bitcoin has like two weeks in the worse scenario to range or fall before going and tap 150k or somewhere around. In the good scenario it goes up from here , I’ve put two box to get the bitcoin in case of a fall but deep down I see it unlikely to happen as altcoins look sh! T , I see it as a surprise run and leave people behind most likely but anyway who knows . Keep those areas in mind and see them as a chance . Bullrun isn’t over and it’s just warming up. Stay safe lads
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by mastershark
Bitcoin's Balancing Act: Navigating Selling Pressure and BullishBitcoin, the world's leading cryptocurrency, currently finds itself at a critical juncture, navigating a complex interplay of selling pressure from long-term holders and several bullish indicators suggesting a potential resurgence. This article delves into the key factors influencing Bitcoin's price, including long-term holder behavior, exchange inflows and miner outflows, hashrate dynamics, and the influence of Bitcoin whales, to assess its potential to reclaim the coveted $100,000 mark. Critical Support and Long-Term Holder Selling Pressure Bitcoin is currently facing critical support levels, meaning that its price is approaching a point where a significant drop could trigger further selling and potentially lead to a more substantial correction. One of the primary factors contributing to this pressure is the selling activity of long-term Bitcoin holders. These holders, who have typically held their Bitcoin for extended periods, are beginning to distribute their holdings, adding to the selling pressure in the market. This behavior can be attributed to various factors, including profit-taking after previous price surges, concerns about macroeconomic conditions, or a shift in investment strategies. Monitoring the behavior of long-term holders is crucial for understanding the overall market sentiment and potential future price movements. Exchange Inflow and Miner Outflow Dynamics Analyzing Bitcoin exchange inflows and miner outflows provides valuable insights into market dynamics. A drop in exchange inflows suggests reduced selling pressure, as fewer Bitcoins are being deposited onto exchanges for trading.1 Conversely, a decrease in miner outflows indicates that miners are holding onto their Bitcoin rather than selling it immediately, further reducing selling pressure. The recent drop in both exchange inflows and miner outflows is a positive sign, suggesting that selling pressure is easing and potentially paving the way for a price recovery. The expectation is that this reduced selling pressure, combined with other bullish factors, could contribute to Bitcoin reclaiming the $100,000 level. Bitcoin Hashrate Reaching New All-Time Highs The Bitcoin hashrate, a measure of the computational power used to mine Bitcoin, has recently reached new all-time highs.2 This is a significant indicator of the network's strength and security. A higher hashrate makes the Bitcoin network more resistant to attacks and demonstrates the continued commitment of miners to the ecosystem. While a high hashrate doesn't directly translate to immediate price increases, it reflects the long-term health and stability of the Bitcoin network, which can indirectly contribute to positive market sentiment and attract new investors. This robust network infrastructure provides a strong foundation for future price appreciation and supports the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $100,000. The Influence of Bitcoin Whales Bitcoin whales, entities holding substantial amounts of Bitcoin, exert significant influence on market dynamics.3 Recent data suggests that Bitcoin whales control a significant portion of exchange volume, highlighting their ability to impact price movements. Analyzing their selling patterns is crucial for understanding potential market shifts. If whales begin accumulating Bitcoin, it could signal a bullish trend, while continued selling could exacerbate downward pressure. Understanding whale behavior is essential for navigating the complexities of the Bitcoin market and anticipating potential price swings. The observation that whales control 94.5% of exchange volume underscores their influence and the importance of monitoring their activity for future market predictions. Can Bitcoin Reclaim $100,000? The question on everyone's mind is whether Bitcoin can reclaim the $100,000 mark. While the selling pressure from long-term holders presents a challenge, several bullish factors offer hope for a price recovery. The drop in exchange inflows and miner outflows suggests reduced selling pressure, while the record-high hashrate demonstrates the strength and security of the Bitcoin network. The behavior of Bitcoin whales will also play a crucial role in determining future price movements. Reaching $100,000 will require a combination of factors, including a decrease in selling pressure, renewed buying interest from both retail and institutional investors, and positive developments in the broader cryptocurrency market. If these conditions are met, Bitcoin has the potential to overcome current challenges and reach new heights. Conclusion Bitcoin is currently navigating a delicate balance between selling pressure and bullish indicators. While long-term holder selling and critical support levels present challenges, the drop in exchange inflows and miner outflows, coupled with the record-high hashrate, offer positive signals. The influence of Bitcoin whales adds another layer of complexity to the market dynamics. Whether Bitcoin can reclaim $100,000 remains to be seen, but the interplay of these factors will ultimately determine its future price trajectory. Careful monitoring of these key indicators is essential for understanding the evolving landscape of the Bitcoin market and making informed investment decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bryandowningqln